二、市场信息 1、据农业农村部监测，2 月 9 日"农产品批发价格 200 指数"为 129.51，比上周五下降 0.25 个点，"菜篮 子"产品批发价格指数为 132.33，比上周五下降 0.29 个点。截至今日 14:00 时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉 平均价格为 18.34 元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 66.08 元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.6%；羊肉 64.51 元/公斤， 比上周五上升 0.1%；鸡蛋 8.39 元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.4%；白条鸡 17.18 元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.3%。 农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力 | | 2605 增仓上行，日线以长阳线收盘，期价大涨突破震荡区间上 | | | 沿，宏观和资金引领占据主导。本周受大豆上涨影响，玉米期价止跌上行。春节 | | | | | 前一周玉米 | | 3 月合约持仓向 5 月转移，现货休市等待期货方向指引。目前，市场 | | | 购销已不活跃，东北玉米价格以稳定为主。基层农户售粮积极性不高，产 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 2 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 762.5 | 761.5 | 1.0 | I05-I09 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | | I09 | 745.0 | 744.0 | 1.0 | I09-I01 | 11.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | | I01 | 733.5 | 732.0 | 1.5 | I01-I05 | -29.0 | -29.5 | 0.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 9.18%至 150260 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2000 元/ 吨至 138000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2000 元/吨至 134500 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 750 元/吨至 134500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 10 吨至 35527 吨。 2. 消息面，中国汽车工业协会数据显示，2026 年 1 月我国汽车行业保持平稳运行。1 月份汽车产销分 别完成 245 万辆和 234.6 万辆，产量同比增长 0.01%，销量同比下降 3.2%。其中，新能源汽车市场 平稳运行，产销分别完成 104.1 万辆和 94.5 万辆，同比分别增长 2.5%和 0.1%。此外，商用车市场延 续向好态势，1 月份，产销同比均保持两位数增长。1 月份，汽车出口方面，继续保持增长。其中， 新能源汽车出口保持高速增长，出口 30.2 万辆，同比增长 1 倍。中汽中心首席科学家王 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.41%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.51%， 报收 14745 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 3860 手至 69.6 万手。国际市场方面， | | | | 宏观层面仍有扰动，美国非农数据强劲，预期降息节点推迟，美元指数震荡走强。 | | | | 基本面来看， USDA2 月报环比调减 2025/26 年度美棉出口量预期值，库销比预期 | | | 棉花 | 同比增加，2025/26 年度美棉供需格局预计较为宽松。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合 | 震荡 | | | 约期价震荡上行，持仓小幅下降。近日中国棉花信息网发布意向种植面积调研报 | | | | 告，2026 年我国棉花意向种植面积同比下降 1.7%，全国棉花产量预计同比下降 | | | | 5.8%。整体来看，我们认为节前郑棉上行驱动有限。春节假期临近，纺织企业陆 | | | | 续放假，纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下近五年来同期新高，补库需求的时 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3054 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅为 0.07%，持仓减少 0.19 万手。现货市场已处于有价无市局面，报价几无变化，唐山 | | | | 地区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2900 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3160 元/吨。据中汽协统计，2026 | | | | 年 1 月我国汽车产销分别完成 245 万辆和 234.6 万辆，环比去年 12 月分别下降 25.7%和 28.3%，同比产量 | | | | 增长 0.01%，销量下降 3.2%。其中，新能源汽车产销分别完成 104.1 万辆和 94.5 万辆，同比分别增长 2.5% | | | | 和 0.1%，占新车总销量比重达 40.3%。受新能源汽车购置税政策切换、多地购车补贴年度交替，以及部分 | | | | 消费需求在 2025 年提前释放等因素影响，1 月车市环 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三尿素期货价格偏强震荡，主力05合约收盘价1797元/吨，涨幅0.34%。现货市场维持稳 | | | | 定，昨日山东、河南市场价格均维持在1800元/吨，现货市场基本处于 停 状态，市场有 | | | | 价无市。基本面来看，尿素供应水平高位运行，昨日行业日产量21.39万吨，日环比持平。 | | | | 需求力 继续回落，昨日主流地区产销率回落至5% 40%。节前厂家订单基本收完，物流 | | | 尿素 | 运力及下游逐渐放假，市场活跃度继续下降。好的方面在于本周尿素企业库存加 下降， | 窄幅 震荡 | | | 去库幅 高 9.12%，且节后市场将逐步 来需求 季，价格表现仍较 坚挺。整体来看， | | | | 春节前尿素市场逐步趋稳，期货价格震荡运行。假期期间国际市场印标等 动因素较多， | | | | 注意控制仓位，建议轻仓或空仓 节。 | | | | 周三纯碱期货价格窄幅波动，主力05合约收盘价1178元/吨，日环比持平。现货价格维持稳 定，贸 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 11, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,370 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 4,377 lots to 308,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,458 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 480 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,180 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The open interest decreased by 304 lots to 38,313 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from Baichuan reached 53,650 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also 53,650 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 4,470 yuan/ton. Yunnan manufacturers entered the delivery period for the last batch of orders before the holiday, and production will gradually be reduced across the board this week. Xinjiang continued to reduce production and output. Currently, term traders are still actively selling goods, and downstream备货 is coming to an end. There is no upward momentum before the holiday. New orders in the crystalline silicon market have stagnated before the holiday. Silicon wafers have entered a one-order-one-negotiation mode. Except for component traders selling goods at reduced prices due to financial pressure, other sectors have temporarily stabilized in the stalemate of transactions. Before the holiday, based on the logic of capital repatriation, the crystalline silicon futures market will continue to be weak, and market contradictions will shift to the game of post-holiday expected confidence [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Futures Settlement Price**: The main contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,295 yuan/ton. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various grades and regions remained unchanged. The price difference between 421 and non-oxygenated 553/oxygenated 553 remained stable at 450/350 yuan/ton. - **Delivery Price**: The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 5 yuan to 480 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,200 tons to 19,317 tons, and the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory increased by 13,970 tons to 83,685 tons. The weekly inventories at Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and industrial silicon factories increased by 1,000 tons, 1,000 tons, and 14,500 tons respectively. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 16,500 tons to 439,350 tons [4]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Futures Settlement Price**: The main contract increased by 230 yuan/ton to 49,180 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract remained unchanged at 49,490 yuan/ton. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. - **Delivery Price**: The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 53,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 230 yuan to 4,470 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 900 tons to 7,940 tons, and the weekly GFE inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 25.83 million tons. The weekly polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 34.1 million tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.9 million tons to 34.1 million tons [4]. 3.1.3 Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil remained unchanged at 14,800 yuan/ton, 14,500 yuan/ton, and 15,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - The charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components [14][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, polysilicon futures inventory, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, industrial silicon weekly inventory change, polysilicon weekly inventory, and DMC weekly inventory [20][23]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost level, average profit level, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and aluminum alloy cost and profit [26][28][31]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non-ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher. Wang Heng mainly focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon. Zhu Xi mainly studies lithium and nickel [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, the market will be affected by factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical uncertainties. For other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, their prices will be influenced by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and geopolitical situations. Traders are advised to participate with light positions before the Spring Festival to control risks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose. The WTI March contract closed up $0.67 to $64.63 per barrel, a 1.05% increase. The Brent April contract closed up $0.6 to $69.4 per barrel, a 0.87% increase. SC2604 closed at 479.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.9 yuan, a 0.82% increase. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000. EIA data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories increased while distillate inventories decreased. OPEC reported that global demand for OPEC+ oil in Q2 would decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, and there would be a slight surplus. The oil market is expected to be volatile, and traders are advised to use light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the SHFE rose 1.38% to 2,860 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 2.32% to 3,357 yuan per ton. As of February 11, the operating rate of Chinese local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 68.31%, up 0.26 percentage points from last week. The Singapore low - sulfur market is under pressure, but the high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening. The market is expected to be volatile, and light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the SHFE rose 0.51% to 3,358 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory of domestic refineries' asphalt was 24.67%, up 0.72% month - on - month; the social inventory rate was 25.87%, up 0.24% month - on - month; the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 29.93%, down 1.76% month - on - month. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. Light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,260 yuan per ton, up 0.57%; EG2605 closed at 3,764 yuan per ton, up 0.83%. PX, PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations and potential unplanned shutdowns of polyester raw materials during the Spring Festival [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 240 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The cost - end raw material prices are supported by inventory building, but the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and port inventories are slightly increasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to risks during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high - level shock, and Iranian supply remains low. The demand has rigid support, but the MTO unit load is still low. Iranian shipments are expected to decline in February, which may support prices. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7][9]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream production is high as there are no large - scale maintenance plans for upstream units, and downstream factories are gradually shutting down. Polyolefins are expected to start accumulating inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market in different regions shows different trends. The demand is weakening as domestic real - estate construction slows down before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high - level shock, and the price is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change in basis rate compared to the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - On February 11, US President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump insisted that negotiations with Iran continue. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 70,000, and the December data was revised downward to an increase of 48,000. The severe cold and snowstorms in the US did not affect the enterprise survey for calculating employment [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [17][19][21][23] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document shows charts of the basis of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [34][37][41] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides charts of the spreads between different contracts for various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The document presents charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document shows charts of production profits and processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol [71][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of Everbright Futures Research Institute Zhong Meiyan, the director of energy and chemical research Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experience, achievements, and qualification numbers [76][77][78][79] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [81]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日市场全天窄幅震荡，三大指数涨跌互现。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市近 | | | | 3000 股飘绿，今日成交 2.12 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 0.13%，深成指涨 0.02%， | | | | 创业板指跌 0.37%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政策，对指数形成基本面 | | | | 支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基 | | | | 金 加强政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步 | | | | 规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业 | | | | 标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构性货币政策工具 | | | 股指 | 利率 25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技 | 震荡 | | | 创新、普惠养老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了 | | | | 央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特定 ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米受大豆上涨影响，期价止跌上行。春节前一周玉米 3 月合约持仓向 5 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 月转移，现货休市等待期货方向指引。目前，市场购销已不活跃，东北玉米价格 | | | | 以稳定为主。基层农户售粮积极性不高，产区烘干塔随行收购积极性也一般，部 | | | | 分烘干塔已停收。东北地区玉米节前玉米购销已基本结束，市场购销活跃度已不 | | | | 高，价格方面基本无调整。东北深加工也在春节期间停收。销区市场玉米价格窄 | | | | 幅调整。部分港口贸易商小幅提价，市场整体波动不大。下游饲料企业仍谨慎观 | | | | 望，采购速度偏慢，执行订单为主。整体来看，春节假期前，玉米价格将维持窄 | | | | 幅震荡的格局，出现大幅波动的可能性较小。技术上看，春节假期临近，期货市 | | | | 场资金离场期价波动性下降，短线参与为主。 | | | 豆粕 | 周二，CBOT 大豆收高，豆油期货创新高。受助于技术性买盘、出口需求乐观预 | 震荡 | | | 期以及豆油期货的强势，美豆期价上涨。不过 ...