Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Iron ore shows an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term due to factors such as changes in supply, demand, and inventory [1] - Coking coal supply is tight, and the downstream has different procurement attitudes, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Coke supply is affected by cost, and demand is influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese silicon has a complex fundamental situation with multiple factors intertwined, and the overall is in an oscillating pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon's current fundamental support is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with the black market in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Sections Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price decreased, the spot price dropped slightly, and the demand entered the off - season. The steel mills' losses expanded, and the cost support weakened, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Iron ore**: The futures price oscillated, the supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, the demand (iron - water output) declined, and the inventory increased, resulting in an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term [1] - **Coking coal**: The futures price fell, the supply was tight, the downstream procurement attitudes varied, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Coke**: The futures price declined, the supply was affected by cost, and the demand was influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production decreased slightly, the demand (steel recruitment) declined, the cost was stable with electricity price adjustment expected, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is in an oscillating pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production cost increased significantly, the supply was relatively stable, the demand (steel recruitment) decreased, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is expected to fluctuate with the black market [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 64.0 with a - 6.0 change [4] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the 01 contract basis of rebar is 165.0 with a 19.0 change [4] - **Spot prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes of various varieties in different regions are given, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0 with no change [4] - **Profits and spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit) and cross - variety spreads (such as the coil - rebar spread) is provided, for example, the rebar disk profit is - 119.5 with a 13.6 change [4] Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract prices**: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties over the years, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: Graphs display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different months, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spreads**: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties, like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][32] - **3.4 Cross - variety contract spreads**: Graphs show the cross - variety spreads of main contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar profits**: Graphs display the profits of rebar's main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin has rich experience in resource - product research and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is good at investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [55]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价重心反弹，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘上涨 0.91 美元至 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 61.04 美元/桶，涨幅 1.51%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘上涨 1.1 美元至 65.16 美元/桶，涨幅 1.72%。SC2512 以 468.9 元/桶收盘，上涨 9.7 | | | | 元/桶，涨幅 2.11%。初步调查显示，上周美国原油库存预计增加， | | | | 汽油和馏分油库存料下滑。周度库存报告发布之前，受访的五家 | | | 原油 | 分析机构平均预估，截至 11 月 7 日当周，美国原油库存增加约 | 震荡 | | | 120 万桶。亚洲汽油炼油利润周二升至每桶 16.25 美元，创下 2024 | | | | 年 1 月以来的最高水平。这主要得益于该地区多家炼厂停产检修。 | | | | 近期市场呈现一定联动，海外市场天然气、成品油价格有所走强， | | | | 裂解利润好转，对油价有所支撑，油价延续震荡运行节奏。 | | | | 周二，上 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，上证指数收报 4002.76 点，跌 0.39%。深证成指收报 13289.00 点，跌 | | | | 1.03%。创业板指收报 3134.32 点，跌 1.40%。沪深 300 收报 4652.17 点，跌 | | | | 0.91%。科创 50 收报 1387.53 点，跌 1.42%。中证 500 收报 7291.61 点，跌 | | | | 0.71%。中证 1000 收报 7540.79 点，跌 0.30%。中美元首近日于韩国举行会 | | | | 谈，双边关系向着稳中向好的方向迈进，有利于我国需求总量的提升，也有 | | | | 利于 A 股科技股继续对标美股估值。《中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四 | | | 股指 | 次全体会议公报》聚焦几大主线：（1）"抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革历 | 震荡 | | | 史机遇"并形成现代化产业体系；（2）继续扩大内需，"促进消费和投资、 | | | | 供给和需求良性互动" ...

11 月 11 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.39%，收于 4002.76 点，成交额 8583.62 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-1.03%，收于 13289.0 点，成交额 11352.24 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.3%，成交额 4048.67 亿元，其中开盘价 7579.91，收盘价 7540.79，当日最高价 7598.99，最低价 7530.14； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.71%，成交额 3385.98 亿元，其中开盘价 7364.93，收盘价 7291.61，当日最高价 7379.81，最低价 7281.97； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.91%，成交额 4776.29 亿元，其中开盘价 4706.34，收盘价 4652.17，当日最高价 4707.13，最低价 4648.49； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.63%，成交额 1180.61 亿元，其中开盘价 3059.76，收盘价 3034.63，当日最高价 3060.28，最低价 3023.92。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-22.46 点，电 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the decline in temperature, the demand for rebar is entering the off - season, and steel mills' losses are expanding, leading to increased production cuts and maintenance. The short - term rebar futures may oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - For iron ore, the shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil are decreasing, iron - making production is falling, and inventories are rising. The short - term ore price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - In the coking coal market, supply is tight due to safety inspections and over - production control, while downstream procurement demand has slightly increased. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Regarding coke, although the third price increase has been implemented and the loss of coke enterprises has eased slightly, steel mills' demand is expected to weaken, and the short - term coke futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - For manganese silicon, the output has slightly declined, steel procurement volume has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. The short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to oscillate [1]. - In the ferrosilicon market, supply remains strong, steel demand is weak, and inventory has reached a new high. The short - term ferrosilicon futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3044 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 37,200 lots. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. National building material inventories decreased by 0.89% to 4.8292 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventories decreased by 0.47% to 2.4768 million tons, with a narrowing decline. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 765 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.6%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a decrease in positions of 18,000 lots. Port spot prices rose slightly. Australian and Brazilian shipping volumes decreased, while those from other countries increased. Iron - making production decreased by 21,400 tons to 2.3422 million tons, and inventories at 47 ports and steel mills increased. Short - term ore prices are expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.35%), with a decrease in positions of 11,547 lots. Spot prices in some areas increased, and supply was tight due to safety inspections and over - production control. Downstream procurement demand increased slightly, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (0.74%), with a decrease in positions of 162 lots. Spot prices at ports decreased. Coke enterprises proposed a fourth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. After the third price increase, the loss of coke enterprises eased slightly, and inventories were low. Steel mills' demand is expected to weaken, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5820 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day, and a decrease in positions of 2377 lots to 354,800 lots. Market prices in different regions varied. Steel procurement volume decreased, output decreased slightly, and inventory reached a new high. Short - term futures are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5588 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day, and a decrease in positions of 3545 lots to 162,100 lots. Market prices in different regions were basically stable. Steel procurement volume decreased, supply remained strong, and inventory reached a five - year high. Short - term futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is presented, along with changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various varieties over different months [16][18][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for different varieties [26][28][31][35][36][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio) for main contracts [44][46][47]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [56]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [56]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [56]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [57].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，受港口报价上调的利多因素影响，玉米期价延续上行。当日，玉米主力 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2601 合约减仓上行，期、现联动反弹。周末北港玉米价格继续偏强运行，目前北 港船期密集，贸易商提价收购，但产区余粮整体较为充裕，产区仍有卖压，产区 | | | 玉米 | 与港口之间存在一定的博弈。周末销区市场玉米价格窄幅上调。北港价格上涨， | 上涨 | | | 销区部分港口贸易商同步上调报价。下游饲料企业仍维持谨慎观望心态，做远期 | | | | 库存意愿不强。技术上，在 40 日均线支撑之下，玉米主力 2601 合约突破底部颈 | | | | 线，期价形成技术性突破上行的表现，建议短线多单继续参与。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆上涨，受助于美国政府或将恢复运转，且市场乐观预期美豆出 | | | | 口前景。交易员正在为美国农业部周五发布的供需报告做准备，该报告将包括自 | | | | 9 月中旬以来首次对美国和全球作物的预期。出口检验报告显示，美豆单周出口 | | | | 检验 108 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内现货精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国参议院通过了 | | | | 为政府提供资金至明年 1 月的临时拨款法案，该动作被市场解读为僵局打破的信号， | | | | 市场预期政府重新开门将释放被冻结的 TGA 账户，流动性的释放预期极大地提振了市 | | | | 场情绪，市场风险偏好回升。国内方面，国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步促进民间投资 | | | | 发展的若干措施》，进一步激发民间投资活力、促进民间投资发展。库存方面，LME | 库 | | 铜 | 存增加 375 吨至 136275 吨；Comex 库存增加 2662 吨至 337752 吨；SMM 周一统计国 | | | | 内精炼铜社会库存环比上周四下降 0.38 万吨至 19.95 万吨。需求方面，铜价小幅走弱， | | | | 下游刚需点价有所增加，但畏高情绪仍制约采购情绪。政策面来看，LME 正就永久性 | | | | 新规则征求意见，意在遏制市场操纵并缓解现货溢价 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 1 1 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 742.0 | 740.0 | 2.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 2.0 | | I09 | 722.0 | 722.0 | 0.0 | I09-I01 | -43.0 | -38.5 | -4.5 | | I01 | 765.0 | 760.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | 23.0 | 20.5 | 2.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 3 2.2 基差：图表 p 4 图表3：基差标的：巴西粉矿（单位：元/吨） 图表4：基差标的：澳洲中品粉矿（单位：元/吨） ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素期货价格宽幅波动，主力01合约收盘价1660元/吨，微幅下跌0.48%。现货 | | | | 市场继续上扬，主流地区现货价格昨日上调20~40元/吨，山东、河南地区市场价格 | | | | 均 1620元/吨，日环比均上涨20元/吨。基本面来看，尿素装置窄幅波动，行业日 | | | | 产量昨日19.51万吨，日环比降0.28万吨。需求端在价格持续上调后跟进情绪有所放 | | | | 缓，昨日主流地区产销率维持降至10%~60%区间，高成交暂时未能持续。上周新一 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 批出口配额及周末印度招标消息利好因素落地后，市场暂时缺乏持续上涨动能。但 | | | | 后期印标结果、中国能否供货、气头企业负荷下降以及成本支撑等逻辑或仍能给市 | | | | 场带来阶段性波动，盘面走势暂时坚挺震荡运行，谨慎乐观。关注现货成交节奏、 | | | | 出口及国际市场动态。 | | | | 周一纯碱期货价格宽幅震荡，走势先抑后扬。主力01合约收盘价1226元/吨，涨幅1. | | | | 49%。现货厂家报价多数 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 1.13%，报收 64.24 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13580 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 6107 手至 57.02 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14440 元/吨，较前一日下降 25 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是近期市场关 | | | | 注重点，美国政府结束停摆有新进展。美联储 12 月降息预期仍有波动，扰动市场 | | | | 情绪。此外，USDA11 月报将于本周公布，持续关注。国内市场方面，郑棉依旧 | | | 棉花 | 维持震荡走势，我们认为当前市场多空因素均有，暂无明确方向性驱动。上方压 | 震荡 | | | 力主要在于供应端，棉花季产年销的特性叠加年度丰产预期决定当前供应压力较 | | | | 大。下方支撑主要在于成本与预期，南疆地区籽棉收购价格偏高，折皮棉成本大 | | | | 部分在 14000-15000 元/吨。预期方面， ...