Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was found in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a decline overnight, with LME copper down 0.8% to $9,854.5 per ton and SHFE copper down 0.69% to 79,290 yuan per ton. The domestic spot import remained in a slight loss. Despite many bullish factors, the weekly copper market should be viewed with caution due to uncertainties [1]. - Alumina trended higher, with AO2509 closing at 3,477 yuan per ton, up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a slightly stronger trend. Due to factors such as alumina plant maintenance and raw material stocking, the supply of alumina and aluminum is tightening [1]. - Nickel prices fell overnight, with LME nickel down 0.67% to $15,470 per ton and SHFE nickel down 0.64% to 123,250 yuan per ton. The stainless - steel market's supply - demand pattern is gradually being repaired, but the short - term nickel price is still in a volatile state [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices dropped, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories changed. In terms of demand, the off - season led to weak consumption, but some enterprises replenished stocks in advance due to concerns about price increases. Near the end of July and early August, there are many bullish factors, but risks also need attention [1]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, with AO2509 up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a stronger trend. Factors such as plant maintenance and raw material stocking led to a tightening of supply. The aluminum alloy's unilateral rebound space is limited, but AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel inventory remained stable. The stainless - steel market's cost support weakened, and the supply - demand pattern is being repaired. Short - term nickel prices are volatile [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased slightly, and the price of scrap copper increased. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. The social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory increased by 7,186 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE aluminum changed, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The inventory of LME nickel decreased, and the social inventory increased by 1,165 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The prices of zinc and zinc alloys increased slightly. The inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory increased by 5,300 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The SMM spot price of tin increased by 3,500 yuan per ton. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 51 tons on a weekly basis [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It includes charts of the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: It presents the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report includes charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction to the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience and many professional achievements [51]. - Wang Heng is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50][51]. - Zhu Xi is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 24, polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main contract 2509 closing at 53,765 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 5.15%, and the position increasing by 6,923 lots to 173,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,000 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 7,740 yuan/ton. The main contract 2509 of industrial silicon closed at 9,690 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.21%, and the position increasing by 1,498 lots to 336,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,807 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 increased to 9,550 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. Affected by the news of coal mine inspections, industrial silicon also has a cost upward logic support. Currently, the country continues to send a strong signal against cut - throat competition. With multiple positive news in the crystalline silicon market, the bulls are quite confident. Supported by macro - policies, the market is more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI price ratio and the potential upward trend before the implementation of policies. In addition, after the increase in polysilicon margin, it is more difficult to chase the rise, so it is necessary to control positions carefully and be vigilant against high - volatility risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research View - Polysilicon prices rose on July 24, with the main contract showing an increase and the position rising. The prices of different types of polysilicon materials also increased, and the spot discount widened. Industrial silicon prices slightly declined, with the position increasing. The spot price remained stable, and the spot discount narrowed. Industrial silicon has cost - rising support, and the market is likely to rise under policy support, but there are risks in chasing the rise of polysilicon [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased slightly. The spot prices of most types of industrial silicon, such as non - oxygenated 553 and 421, increased in some regions, while remaining stable in others. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 210 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 330 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 820 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon materials also rose, with the price of N - type granular silicon increasing by 9,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 2,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 1,160 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 240 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil were marked as N/A [3] - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: There are charts showing the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16] - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [25][27][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 7.21% to 76,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 700 yuan/ton to 60,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 665 tons to 10,754 tons [3]. - On July 23, 2025, Argentina's economy minister announced that the RIGI evaluation committee rejected Ganfeng's application for the Mariana salt lake project. In June 2025, the Port of Port Hedland in Australia shipped 92,740 tons of spodumene concentrate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 17.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 52.54%. It also shipped 17,200 tons to Indonesia and 14,500 tons to South Korea [3]. - In terms of supply, the production in July is expected to increase 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons [3]. - The price increased with increasing positions yesterday, and the news continued to ferment. Fundamentally, the supply and demand in July are in a tight balance, and the lithium ore price remains relatively strong, providing marginal support for the lithium price. However, the short - term core contradiction still focuses on the low warehouse receipt inventory and concerns about mine exploitation. Currently, the continuous small - scale return of warehouse receipt inventory may ease the situation, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was N/A, and the previous day was 69,380 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract was N/A, and the previous day was 69,320 yuan/ton. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 764 dollars/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,080 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, all increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium increased by 500 yuan/ton to 51,500 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - Spreads: Charts present the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][24]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][36][37]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3294 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 20 元/吨，涨幅 0.61%，持仓减少 1.63 万手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | 震荡偏强 | | | 格上涨 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 20 元/吨至 3370 元/吨，全国建材成交量 11.15 | | | | 万吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 2.9 万吨至 211.96 万吨，同比减少 4.73 万吨；社库环 | | | | 比回升 2.81 万吨至 372.97 万吨，同比减少 193.62 万吨；厂库环比回落 7.43 万吨至 165.67 万吨，同比减少 | | | | 27.98 万吨；螺纹表需回升 10.41 万吨至 216.58 万吨，同比增加 10.41 万吨。螺纹产量小幅回升，库存再次 | | | | 转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。淡季 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周，玉米 9 月合约减仓调整，期价呈现震荡表现。9 月合约连续一周减仓调整， | 下跌 | | | 多空表现较为焦灼。现货市场中，伴随着进口玉米拍卖成交率的下滑，进口玉米 | | | | 拍卖对市场的影响也有所减弱，东北产区市场整体的气氛有所恢复，东北玉米价 | | | | 格目前有所反弹。 华北地区玉米价格整体稳定， 个别企业窄幅上调，主流价格 | | | | 保持稳定。山东深加工企业玉米到货量有所增加，但深加工企业玉米价格整体保 | | | 玉米 | 持稳定。河南、河北少数企业价格窄幅上调。销区市场玉米价格小幅反弹。周末 | | | | 产区玉米价格反弹 10-20 元/吨，期货走势接连上行，销区港口贸易商报价小幅 | | | | 提升，但下游市场接受一般，购销平淡，替代选择较多，玉米刚需为主。技术上， | | | | 玉米 9 月合约重新反弹至此前密集成交区 2320-2330 的价格区间，短线反弹遭遇 | | | | 到技术关口压制，期价短期呈现震荡偏弱表现。 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.73%，报收 68.74 美分/磅，CF509 环比下降 0.42%，报收 14160 | 宽幅震 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 19304 手至 51.89 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15431 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 20 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15563 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 20 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期美棉整体驱动有限，市场关注重心更多在 | | | | 于宏观层面。昨日美元指数与美棉价格共振上行。特朗普访问美联储总部，再度施 | | | | 压美联储降息，但表示解雇鲍威尔将是一个重大举措但没必要，其任期即将届满。 | | | | 7 月美联储议息会议大概率按兵不动，9 月降息概率较大，关注预期是否会有变动， | 荡 | | | 基本面驱动有限。国内市场方面，郑棉期价日内震荡偏弱。近期郑棉驱动的主要逻 | | | | 辑并未发生改变，低库 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力 09 合约收盘价 1785 元/吨，微幅下跌 0.17%。现 | | | | 货市场报价回落，主流地区价格小幅走弱 10~20 元/吨不等，目前山东、河南地区市 | | | | 场价格分别为 1810 元/吨、1830 元/吨，日环比均下跌 20 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素 | | | | 供应水平窄幅波动，昨日行业日产量 19.52 万吨，日环比提升 0.25 万吨。需求端跟进 | | | | 情绪依旧一般，昨日主流地区现货产销率维持在 10%~50%区间，对市场支撑力度较 | | | | 为有限。反内卷对商品市场及相关品种提振仍存，尿素存在联动效应。同时，昨日晚 | 偏强 | | | 间印度再度发布新一轮国际尿素招标，出口政策也存在变化，后期或继续对国内市场 | | | | 产生扰动。整体来看，尿素供需变化幅度依旧有限，但外围因素扰动仍在持续。预计 | | | | 短期期价走势仍以非基本面因素为 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI9 月合约收盘上涨 0.78 美元至 66.03 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.20%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.67 美元至 69.18 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.98%。SC2509 以 507.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 2.8 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.56%。地缘政治紧张局势持续受关注。俄乌双方在伊 | | | | 斯坦布尔举行和谈讨论进一步交换战俘，但双方在停火条件和领 | | | | 导人会晤可能性上仍存在巨大分歧。另有两名行业消息人士称， | | | | 由于新规实施，外国油轮被暂时禁止在俄罗斯主要黑海港口装货， | | | 原油 | 这实际上停止了哈萨克斯坦通过部分由美国能源巨头持股的财团 | 震荡 | | | 出口石油。现货市场方面，亚太原油市场，9 月装拉布安原油的现 | | | | 货价差攀升，因为新加坡中质馏份油的炼油利润表现坚挺。9 月 | | | | ...

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周末，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工建设，投资规模约 1.2 万亿元，带动基 | | | | 建板块冲高，建材继续上涨 4.5%，煤炭单日涨超 6%。6 月经济和金融数据 | | | | GDP 5.2%，6 4.8%，规模以上工业增加 发布，二季度我国 同比 月社零同比 | | | | 值同比 6.8%，固定资产投资累计同比 2.8%，房地产开发投资累计同比 | | | | 11.2%，需求扰动仍在，投资继续回落；金融数据方面，M1 同比 4.6%，表 | | | | 现亮眼，企业短期贷款同比多增明显。近期中央财经委召开第六次会议，强 | | | | 调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对 | | | 股指 | 于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和通胀企稳的预期颇高，但与市场此前预测不 | 震荡 | | | 同，中央财政仍是通过投资端刺激经济企稳回升，短期可能会为市场带来增 | | | | 量资金，长期效果有待观察。海外方面，"非农"强 ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On July 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 3605.73 points, with a trading volume of 852.24 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21% to close at 11193.06 points, with a trading volume of 992.466 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.42% with a trading volume of 374.406 billion yuan, opening at 6602.17, closing at 6701.12, with a daily high of 6701.12 and a low of 6602.17 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.56% with a trading volume of 320.188 billion yuan, opening at 6197.85, closing at 6293.6, with a daily high of 6293.6 and a low of 6197.85 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.4% with a trading volume of 118.138 billion yuan, opening at 2797.26, closing at 2812.44, with a daily high of 2819.13 and a low of 2791.78 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.4% with a trading volume of 118.138 billion yuan, opening at 2797.26, closing at 2812.44, with a daily high of 2819.13 and a low of 2791.78 [1] Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 93.9 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and biology, and non - ferrous metals having a significant upward pull on the index [3] - The CSI 500 rose 96.84 points from the previous close, with non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals and biology having a significant upward pull on the index [3] - The SSE 300 rose 29.27 points from the previous close, with non - bank finance, electronics, and pharmaceuticals and biology having a significant upward pull, while the banking sector had a downward pull [3] - The SSE 50 rose 11.24 points from the previous close, with non - bank finance, food and beverages, and electronics having a significant upward pull, while the banking sector had a downward pull [3] Group 3: Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 27.61, IM01 of - 91.7, IM02 of - 274.65, and IM03 of - 433.62 [13] - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 23.31, IC01 of - 68.3, IC02 of - 193.39, and IC03 of - 308.17 [13] - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 0.95, IF01 of - 7.45, IF02 of - 37.24, and IF03 of - 67.48 [13] - IH00 had an average daily basis of 2.25, IH01 of 3.33, IH02 of 5.32, and IH03 of 5.88 [13] Group 4: Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM, IC, IF, and IH roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times are provided, such as for IF at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, etc. [23][26][27]