Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn futures price continued to rebound on Tuesday, with the forward contracts 2607 and 2609 leading the rise and the near - month contracts following. The spot price in North China was strong. Traders' willingness to store increased as the bad - grain risk decreased. The short - term outlook is a shock rebound [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean closed lower on Tuesday due to profit - taking. The domestic protein meal continued to fluctuate. Although the spot supply of soybean meal was loose, the slow purchase of soybeans by oil mills from December to January provided cost support. The strategy is to maintain a shock mindset [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: The BMD palm oil first rose and then fell on Tuesday. The ringgit - quoted palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20 increased. The domestic oil futures price fluctuated. The stock of domestic palm oil climbed last week, while that of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased slightly. The strategy is a shock mindset [1]. - Eggs: During the position - shifting process of the egg futures on Tuesday, the price rebounded from a low level. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The supply - side pressure was high, and the future focus is on the change in the breeding end's willingness to replenish and eliminate [1]. - Pigs: The main contract of live pigs 2601 first fell and then rose on Tuesday. The pig price in Northeast China was strong. The entry of second - fattening pigs supported the market to some extent, but the overall supply - demand situation was still oversupplied, with a shock outlook [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Palm Oil: The SPPOMA data showed that from October 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit, oil - extraction rate, and output of Malaysian palm oil increased compared to the same period last month. AmSpec data indicated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - Wheat: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched a 60 - day campaign on October 20 to combat autumn floods, rush to sow wheat, and promote strong seedlings. Seven working groups and scientific and technological teams were dispatched to major winter - wheat - producing provinces in the Huang - Huai - Hai region [3]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - Contracts including corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 spreads are presented in the report [4][5][6][10][14]. 4.2 Contract Basis - Contracts including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs basis are presented in the report [12][13][16][17][22]. Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to achieve many honors [26]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards and published multiple articles [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many team honors and been interviewed by mainstream media [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is "bullish" [1] - The investment rating for 5-year treasury bonds is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, the A-share market oscillated upwards, with the technology sector remaining strong. The Wind All-A Index rose 1.62%, and trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The medium - to - long - term outlook for technology - related themes is optimistic, but uncertainties come from US domestic debt and trade policies. Some brokerages' adjustment of margin financing conversion ratios may impact short - term liquidity. The futures market shows a large discount and low implied volatility in options. Volatility is expected to rise this week, and option double - buy or ratio spread strategies can be considered [1] - For 5 - year treasury bonds, treasury futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 685 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery. The recent relaxation of the capital side and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war have boosted the safe - haven sentiment, but the lack of restart of treasury bond trading and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations limit the upward momentum [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Indices**: On October 21, 2025, the A - share market rose. The technology sector was strong, and the Wind All - A Index increased by 1.62%. The trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all rose. The long - term technology - driven strategy remains unchanged, but there are uncertainties from the US. Some brokerages' margin financing ratio adjustments may affect short - term liquidity. The futures market discount reflects strong hedging demand, and low option implied volatility shows a wait - and - see attitude. Volatility is expected to increase this week [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, treasury futures closed higher. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net injection of funds. The economic data shows a weak recovery. The recent relaxation of the capital side and the tariff war have increased the safe - haven sentiment, but the lack of restart of treasury bond trading and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations limit the upward movement [1][3] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From October 20 to October 21, 2025, IH rose 1.16%, IF rose 1.57%, IC rose 2.08%, and IM rose 1.75% [4] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the SSE 300 rose 1.53%, the CSI 500 rose 1.64%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.45% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.06%, T rose 0.03%, and TL rose 0.25% [4] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased [4] 3. Market News - On October 20, the Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, with over 170 representatives participating. Officials from relevant departments responded to the enterprises' concerns [5] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher; domestic copper trended stronger with oscillations, and the spot import window remained closed. There are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut pace. With the US government shutdown continuing and uncertainties in Sino - US trade, the copper market is cautious. Before substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the market may not offer a higher premium. However, the continuous rise in gold and silver prices and the return of the gold - silver ratio make copper prices eager to rise. Currently, copper prices may remain at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended stronger with oscillations. Alumina prices in the spot market declined, and the profit of alumina plants was further compressed. High - cost production capacity turned to losses and stopped production. After the rainy season ended, mine shipments resumed, and there is room for a decline in ore prices. Alumina is generally bearish but is starting to bottom out. The market re - evaluates the demand fulfillment in the second half of "Silver October", and aluminum prices maintain a relatively strong pattern. Whether they can rise further depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53%, while SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain shows stable nickel - iron prices, and stainless - steel prices are supported by nickel - iron. The social inventory of stainless steel increased significantly after the holiday. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply is tight, supporting prices. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is emerging, and nickel prices fluctuate widely, with caution needed regarding macro - level disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzes the macro - situation including differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut stance, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade uncertainties. Also considers demand factors and the impact of the Indonesian mine accident on copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Covers the price trends of alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy in the futures market, as well as price changes in the spot market such as alumina, aluminum ingots, and aluminum rods. Discusses factors like alumina plant profits, ore shipments, and inventory changes affecting aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Mentions the price changes of LME and SHFE nickel, inventory changes, the situation of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, and the new - energy industry chain, and points out that nickel prices fluctuate widely and are affected by macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Compares prices such as flat - copper, scrap copper, and downstream products between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Compares prices of lead products such as 1 lead and recycled lead, lead - concentrate prices, and processing fees between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Compares prices of aluminum products such as无锡报价,南海报价, and aluminum alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Compares prices of nickel products such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and nickel ore between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: Compares prices of zinc products such as主力结算价, SMM 0 and 1 spot, and zinc alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. - **Tin**: Compares prices of tin products such as主力结算价, SMM现货, and tin concentrate between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][11]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Provides charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Provides charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Provides charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Provides charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Provides charts of smelting - related indicators such as copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **展大鹏**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a slight rebound. However, considering the approaching end of the peak demand season and pessimistic market expectations for future demand, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation state [1]. - Iron Ore: With both supply and demand showing negative factors, such as decreased global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments, reduced iron - making output, and increased port inventory, the price of iron ore is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: Affected by factors such as stable production at the supply end, rigid replenishment demand at the demand end, and high - level shock of iron - making output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Coke: With the narrowing of coking enterprise profit margins and reduced supply, and high - level operation of blast furnaces at the demand end, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese silicon futures has shown a weakening trend. With the approaching of the steel procurement price determination and the weakening of cost support, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The price of ferrosilicon futures has stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by factors such as production reduction and weak downstream demand, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 18,200 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume recovered. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons year - on - year [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 400,000 lots and an increase of 27,000 lots in positions. The market price of mainstream port spot varieties decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased, and the iron - making output decreased by 5,900 tons to 2.4095 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton or 3% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 21,901 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties increased, and the downstream had rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton or 1.86% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 314 lots in positions. The spot price was stable. The profit margin of coking enterprises narrowed, and the supply decreased slightly [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of manganese silicon futures showed a weakening trend. The mainstream steel procurement in October decreased slightly, and the first inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last month. The cost support weakened slightly [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of ferrosilicon futures stopped falling and rebounded. An enterprise in Inner Mongolia reduced production, affecting the daily output by about 200 tons. The mainstream steel procurement quantity in October decreased by 195 tons [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 53.0, up 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 14.0, down 3.0 [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of rebar 01 contract was 141.0, down 15.0; the basis of iron ore 01 contract was 52.2, up 6.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3190.0, unchanged; the spot price of PB powder was 778.0, up 3.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.5, up 4.7; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 170.0, down 8.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][30][31][34][35]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, coking coal and coke, and manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [51]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.03% to 63.78 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.49% to 13,320 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 5,766 lots to 586,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,420 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the overall driving force of U.S. cotton is limited recently, and the data is still in a relatively vacuum period due to the U.S. government shutdown. In the short term, U.S. cotton prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock. In the domestic market, the focus is on new cotton. The supply pressure has increased during the new cotton listing period, and the new cotton volume this year has reached a 10 - year high with an earlier listing progress. There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, but the supply - demand pattern of cotton in China, the U.S., and the world has narrowed compared to the previous year. After the supply pressure eases, cotton prices may improve. Overall, the upward pressure on Zhengzhou cotton remains in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the second half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 51.17%, lower than the 53.49% in the first half of September. The cumulative sugar production as of September reached 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. Although the cumulative production has continued to rise year - on - year, the decline in the sugar - making ratio has temporarily alleviated market concerns, but the futures price rebound is weak due to over - production. In the domestic market, the spot price has been continuously lowered, and the cost support has gradually emerged after the futures price fell to 5,400 yuan per ton. Before the raw sugar makes a new breakthrough, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate, waiting for the import data in September and the estimated production of the new sugar - crushing season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 prices changed on Thursday. The position of the main contract increased. The international market has limited driving force and data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply pressure is high in the short term, but the annual supply - demand pattern has narrowed. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton has upward pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in production and a decline in the sugar - making ratio. The domestic spot price is lowered, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main contract basis was 1344, down 60. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,510 yuan per ton, down 3, and the national average was 14,664 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, up 6; the main contract basis was 372, down 15. The spot price in Nanning was 5,790 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 16, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 49 to 2,724, with 112 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load and inventory, and short - fiber cloth comprehensive load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 16, the spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,790 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,780 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,438, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China cotton price index of the cotton main contract over different time periods [6][8][9][10][11][12]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of the sugar main contract over different time periods [14][15][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oils: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn futures showed a low - level stabilization after a sharp fall, with the pressure of high - yield expectations gradually released. The cold weather in the Northeast reduced the difficulty of corn storage, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. However, the spot market was still under pressure due to factors such as concentrated supply in the production area and weak demand in the sales area [1]. - CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic demand in the US, but the domestic protein meal was weakly oscillatory. The domestic spot was loose, and the sufficient supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter suppressed the market [1]. - BMD palm oil rose despite weak demand from India. Domestic vegetable oils recovered with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic [1]. - Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - Pork futures continued to be weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The current market was in a supply - demand game. If the enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased and the slaughter volume could not absorb the excess supply, the price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: This week, corn futures first fell and then rose. The spot price continued to decline, with the price in the Northeast and North China weakening. The sales area also saw a price drop. Technically, the pressure of high - yield expectations was released, and the cold weather made farmers reluctant to sell [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand. In China, the protein meal was weakly oscillatory, with a loose spot market and sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, and domestic vegetable oils recovered. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in international trade relations [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - **Pork**: This week, pork first stabilized and then fell. The spot price continued to decline, and the current market was in a supply - demand game. The price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Market Information - From October 1 - 15, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil all increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel plan for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026 [2]. - From October 5 - 11, Brazil exported 1,538,934 tons of soybeans, 266,768 tons of soybean meal, and 902,772 tons of corn. From October 12 - 18, it plans to export 2,153,936 tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1,889,800 tons of corn [3]. - Recently, international and domestic palm oil prices have oscillated downward, and the import price inversion of China's near - term palm oil shipments has slightly widened [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these bases is given [12][13][16][18][22]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading teams [26]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pork at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 16, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 2.52% to 74,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,130 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,620 tons to 30,456 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 100 tons to 13,164 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 96 tons to 2,791 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 210 tons to 3,114 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling increased by 25 tons to 1,997 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 271 tons to 17,247 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 114 tons to 17,963 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 572 tons to 85,039 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 970 tons to 102,818 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,030 tons to 57,735 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing by 350 tons to 40,640 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 464 tons to 34,283 tons [3]. - This week, the warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously decreasing. With supply - side news disturbances and good weekly data, the futures price fluctuated and rose yesterday. Currently, it is the peak demand season, lithium carbonate is being destocked, and lithium ore prices are firm. The weekly fundamentals further strengthen the price support. There are still expectations of project resumptions, so in the short term, it will still run with a bias towards fluctuations, but the volatility may increase [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot, and warehouse receipt data: The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 2.52% to 74,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,130 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,620 tons to 30,456 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory data: Supply increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons from different sources. Demand - side production and inventory of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate both increased. The overall inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with different trends in downstream, intermediate, and upstream inventories [3]. - Market trend judgment: Due to factors such as continuous destocking of warehouse receipts, supply - side news disturbances, and good weekly data, the futures price rose. With the peak demand season, destocking of lithium carbonate, and firm lithium ore prices, the short - term market will run with fluctuations and increasing volatility [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes of various products: Futures contract prices (主力合约收盘价 and 连续合约收盘价) increased, prices of some lithium ores (such as lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone) increased, prices of some lithium salts (such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide) decreased, and prices of some other products (such as hexafluorophosphate lithium) increased [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased [5]. - Cell and battery prices: Most cell and battery prices remained unchanged, except for the cobalt - acid lithium cell price which increased slightly [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and some international - domestic price differences, as well as the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][22]. - Precursor and cathode material prices: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium - iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium - iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 27, 2025, to October 16, 2025 [37][38][39]. - Production costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The spot price of urea increased slightly on Thursday. The supply level continued to decline, and the demand follow - up was still insufficient. The inventory of enterprises increased by 11.88% this week. The futures and spot markets' pessimistic sentiment eased, but the market was short of drivers. The futures price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the India tender results, export policies, northern weather, and spot trading [1]. - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash was basically stable on Thursday. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The inventory of enterprises increased by 2.45%. The futures market had no new drivers, and the futures price continued to consolidate at the bottom. It might gradually trade on the macro - policy expectations such as the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, policy dynamics, and related commodity trends [1]. - Glass: The spot price of glass declined on Thursday. The daily melting volume remained stable. The demand follow - up slowed down, and the inventory of enterprises increased by 2.31%. The market sentiment was weak, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and macro - sentiment [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - Market Information: On October 16, the futures warehouse receipts of urea decreased by 55 to 6438, with 21 valid forecasts. The daily output was 18.12 tons, a decrease of 0.34 tons from the previous day and 0.95 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.45%, 8.07 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc., increased by 10 yuan/ton. As of October 15, the enterprise inventory was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons or 11.88% from last week [4][5]. Soda Ash and Glass - Market Information: On October 16, the futures warehouse receipts of soda ash increased by 1427 to 9283, with 806 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts remained at 0. The spot prices of soda ash were flat. The weekly output of soda ash decreased by 3.03 tons or 3.93% to 74.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.48 percentage points to 84.93%. The enterprise inventory increased by 0.94% from Monday and 2.45% from last Thursday. The average market price of float glass was 1246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output remained unchanged. As of October 16, the national float glass enterprise inventory increased by 2.31% week - on - week to 6427.6 million weight boxes, and the inventory days increased by 0.6 days to 27.3 days [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different commodities. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][13][16][17][18]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "relatively strong", and for treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market was volatile and differentiated yesterday, with the technology sector falling again. The Wind All A index dropped 0.44%, and the trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index declined 1.09%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.59% and the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%. The resurgence of Sino-US trade disputes may impact the index in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. Some domestic securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratio of some stocks from 60% to 0, which may affect the valuation of technology stocks if leveraged funds leave in the short term. However, the long-term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged. The short-term decline in IV may be a buying opportunity, and small positions can be used to layout out-of-the-money call options for November. Domestically, the Politburo meeting in September announced that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing on October 20, and the market has high expectations for the meeting content [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract up 0.42%, the 10-year main contract up 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01%. The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. In the inter-bank market, the weighted average rate of DR001 rose 0.01bp to 1.3139%, and DR007 rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%. In the exchange repurchase market, the weighted average rate of GC001 fell 13.98bp to 1.3906%, and GC007 fell 1.29bp to 1.4754%. With the central bank's support, the liquidity situation has marginally eased. The escalation of the Sino-US tariff war has increased risk aversion, and treasury bonds are expected to perform strongly next week. However, the central bank did not restart treasury bond trading in September, and the expectation of monetary policy interest rate cuts has cooled, along with the increase in quasi-fiscal tools, so treasury bonds lack the impetus for significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the technology sector weakening. Sino-US trade disputes and the adjustment of margin conversion ratios may impact the market in the short term, but long-term policy expectations remain positive. Small positions can be used to buy out-of-the-money call options for November [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures had different performances, and the central bank's operations led to a marginal easing of liquidity. The escalation of the tariff war increased risk aversion, but treasury bonds lack the momentum for significant upward movement [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.72%, IF increased 0.30%, IC dropped 1.10%, and IM declined 0.96% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 index declined 1.09% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.02%, TF dropped 0.02%, T rose 0.03%, and TL increased 0.33% [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds increased slightly, while the 30-year treasury bond yield decreased [3] 3. Market News - A Federal Reserve governor suggested a 50-basis-point interest rate cut, but the actual cut is expected to be 25 basis points. Tariffs may cause inflation, but it has not shown up yet. The expected economic growth rate in 2025 is about 2% [4][5][6] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [7][8][9][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the middle rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency exchange rates [22][23][24][26][28][29]