工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 10 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 点评 22 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8485 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.06%，持仓 减仓 10964 手至 9.66 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9523 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现货升水收至 235 元 /吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 50310 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.55%，持 仓减仓 3221 手至 49016 手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，现货贴水转至升水 1640 元/吨。工 业硅供应增压，需求端面临晶硅控产预期，有机硅检修叠加铝合金供应受 限等综合压制，基本面向下驱动强。光伏会议在京连日召开，有消息称国 家针对光伏产能进行调控，市场静待会议结果，短期政策预期给予强底部 支撑。但排产持续增加叠加下游接受不佳，库存高压未解。短期市场充盈 光伏会议及收储进展消息，投机性情绪卷土重来，盘面波动较强，建议谨 慎入场。重点关注政策落地后预期修正，以及硅料端减产控销实际情况。 请务 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 10 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 震荡 | | | 周三，玉米增仓下行，主力 2601 合约小幅低开，其后价格震荡下行。受期货价 格调整影响，北港报价承压。此前，北港的合同玉米供应稍显紧张，价格上行， | | | | 进而带动东北价格上涨。但目前东北后续上货量仍较为集中，此波港口备货后价 | | | | 格上涨缺乏动力。华北地区玉米价格延续稳中偏强走势。山东深加工企业门前整 | | | | 体到货量尚可，各企业根据自身情况价格窄幅调整，价格涨跌范围 10-20 元/吨。 | | | 玉米 | 河北个别企业窄幅下调。河南深加工企业价格整体偏强运行。华北玉米继续收割， | | | | 收割进度整体有所加快，天气放晴后，坏粮风险明显下降，潮粮也不急于出售， | | | | 市场供应整体有所下降。整体来看，在玉米价格反弹的过程中，集团企业在远期 | | | | 合约上布局空单。考虑到今年玉米丰收格局强化，丰产压力之下，市场普遍预期 | | | | 玉米期价还有下探新低的可能。 | | | 豆粕 | 周三， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For steel products, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to trade in a narrow range. The improvement in construction site fund availability is positive for rebar demand. For iron ore, the price will show a range - bound oscillation in the short term, with high demand providing support but overall weak sentiment in the black commodities market. For coking coal and coke, both are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term due to supply and demand factors and the poor profitability of the steel industry. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, they are expected to trade sideways in the short term, lacking clear directional guidance [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Research Views - **Steel (Rebar)**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. This week, national building materials production decreased by 2.45 tons to 399.58 tons, social inventory decreased by 9.97 tons to 654.01 tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.64 tons to 363.88 tons, and apparent demand increased by 41.43 tons to 410.19 tons. Construction site fund availability reached the highest level since the Spring Festival this year [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.6%) from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. Port spot prices rose. Australian and Brazilian shipments increased slightly, and iron - making water production decreased. Steel mills' profitability declined, and 47 port inventories continued to accumulate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1209.5 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan/ton (2.76%), with an increase in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply was tightened due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and accidents. Demand remained high, but the profitability of the steel and coking industries was poor [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1709.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan/ton (2.24%), with a decrease in positions. Spot prices at ports rose. Coke production was stable, but profit margins decreased, and some enterprises reduced production. Demand was supported by high iron - making water production, but the weak steel prices affected the market [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.97%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production stopped falling and rebounded, but downstream demand was low, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5538 yuan/ton, up 1.06%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their daily changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 52.0, up 5.0 [4]. - **Profit and Price Ratios**: Information on profits (such as rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price ratios (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio) and their daily changes are presented. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.9, down 5.2 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar from 2022 - 2026 [16][18][21][23]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities over multiple years, like the 01 - 05 spread of rebar from 2001 - 2025 [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 - 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with detailed information about their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications provided [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Index futures: The A - share market closed down with fluctuations yesterday. The dividend sector rose, while the technology sector pulled back. The Wind All - A index dropped 0.38% with a trading volume of 1.69 trillion yuan. The strategic focus on science and technology for national development remains unchanged in the long - term, and expectations for related themes are still optimistic. Uncertainties mainly come from the US domestic debt pressure and trade policy trends. Some domestic securities firms' adjustment of margin conversion ratios for certain stocks may affect short - term liquidity. The large discount in the futures market reflects strong hedging demand, and the low implied volatility of options shows a wait - and - see attitude. Volatility is expected to rise this week, and option double - buy or ratio spread strategies can be considered [1]. - Treasury bond futures: Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery. The central bank's support has eased the capital situation, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing treasury bonds to perform strongly. However, the central bank did not restart treasury bond trading in September, reducing expectations of monetary policy interest rate cuts. With the warming of the economy and the increase of quasi - fiscal tools, treasury bonds lack the impetus for significant upward movement [1][2] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Index futures: On October 22, 2025, IH was at 3,005.6 (up 0.8 or 0.03% from the previous day), IF was at 4,563.4 (down 14.2 or - 0.31%), IC was at 7,011.6 (down 41.2 or - 0.58%), and IM was at 7,163.2 (down 19.6 or - 0.27%) [3]. - Stock indices: On October 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index was at 3,010.1 (up 2.8 or 0.09%), the CSI 300 Index was at 4,592.6 (down 15.3 or - 0.33%), the CSI 500 Index was at 7,128.5 (down 57.1 or - 0.80%), and the CSI 1000 Index was at 7,312.2 (down 31.8 or - 0.43%) [3]. - Treasury bond futures: On October 22, 2025, TS was at 102.36 (down 0.014 or - 0.01%), TF was at 105.74 (up 0.02 or 0.02%), T was at 108.15 (unchanged), and TL was at 115.61 (up 0.02 or 0.02%) [3]. 3.2 Market News - The China Securities Investment Fund Association is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. Multiple fund managers have submitted a batch of indices for potential use as performance comparison benchmarks, but the regulatory authorities are cautious about the number of indices included in the actual benchmark library [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical basis trends of these contracts [6][7][9]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical yields of treasury bond cash bonds, the historical basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical inter - period spreads of different - term treasury bond futures, the historical spreads between different - term treasury bond futures, and historical capital interest rates [13][14][16][19]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [23][24][27][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating All the varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][7] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including their price movements, market supply - demand situations, and influencing factors. Most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI December contract rose $1.26 to $58.50/barrel (2.18% increase), Brent December contract rose $1.27 to $62.59/barrel (2.07% increase), and SC2512 rose 7.3 yuan/barrel to 449.1 yuan/barrel (1.65% increase). US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's remarks on Russia and US - India trade progress, may drive up short - term price volatility [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts FU2601 and LU2512 rose. In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 rose. This week, the social inventory rate decreased slightly, the refinery inventory increased slightly, and the plant operating rate increased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose on Wednesday. Some MEG and refinery units have maintenance plans. Korean PX exports increased. Polyester supply is sufficient, and downstream demand provides some support. The polyester chain follows cost fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts showed little change. The EU's policy implementation for small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed. Some rubber varieties have tight liquidity, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices were reported. Domestic and overseas supply has returned to a high level, but future Iranian production growth is limited. Port sanctions may reduce future arrivals. It is recommended to consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices and production margins were reported. Short - term supply will remain high, and demand growth will slow down. Crude oil rebound supports prices, but the fundamentals drive is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions changed little. Supply - demand pressure is high, and exports are affected by policies. The price has a need for phased repair, but the rebound is limited by high inventories [7]. Daily Data Monitoring This part provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical commodities on October 23, 2025, as well as the percentage of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. Market News - The US EIA reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased. Analysts believe that oil demand is strong, and there is no sign of crude oil surplus in the US [13]. - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Trump denied media reports about allowing Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical commodities from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [15][16][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of main contracts for various commodities, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [30][34][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts for multiple commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: It includes the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads [60][62][64] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some commodities, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and multiple awards [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and many awards [76]. - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with relevant research achievements and awards [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory application [78].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 10 月 22 日） | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 1-5 | -65 | -10 | 1188 | -26 | 新疆 | 14586 | 34 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 14728 | 49 | | 白糖 | 1-5 | 40 | 1 | 342 | -10 | 南宁 | 5770 | 0 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5780 | 0 | 三、市场信息 1、10 月 21 日棉花期货仓单数量 2579 张，较上一交易日下降 19 张，有效预报 263 张。 2、10 月 21 日国内各地区棉花到厂价：新疆 14586 元/吨，河南 14755 元/吨，山东 14753 元/吨， 浙江 14913 元/吨。 3、10 月 21 日纱线综合负荷为 51.4，较前一日持平；纱线综合库存为 26.2，较前一日持平；短纤 布综合负荷为 52，较前一 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 10 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3047 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅为 0.07%，持仓减少 1.01 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交小幅回升，唐山地区迁安普 方坯价格上涨 10 元/吨至 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3150 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.12 | 弱势整理 | | | 万吨。据海关数据，2025 年 1-9 月国内钢坯出口总量共计 1072.97 万吨，年同比增加 215.43%；其中 9 月 | | | | 国内钢坯出口总量共计 149.36 万吨，月环比减少 15.34%，年同比增加 41.85%。钢坯出口大幅增加，在很 | | | | 大程度上缓解了螺纹供应压力。近期钢厂利润持续收缩，钢厂减产检修增多，同时下游需求维持低位，螺 | | | | 纹处于供需双弱局面。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract dropped 0.26% to 75,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 100 yuan/ton to 74,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose 100 yuan/ton to 71,850 yuan/ton. The inventory of warehouse receipts decreased by 813 tons to 29,892 tons [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The weekly output increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate in October increased by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. On the demand side, the production and inventory of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and battery cells all increased. In October, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode materials, electrolytes, and others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. The total inventory continued to decline to 133,000 tons [3]. - Due to the current peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices, there is still support for short - term prices. However, there is an expectation of project restart in Jiangxi lithium ore projects in November, so the price increase should be viewed with caution [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore Prices**: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased. The prices of some lithium ores, such as lithium spodumene concentrate and certain types of lithium mica, also rose, while the prices of some phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ores decreased [5]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [5]. - **Other Product Prices**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary precursors, cathode materials, and battery cells also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [10][12]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [17]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from February to October 2025 [34][36]. - **Production Cost**: A chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, and information about stock index futures basis and roll - over point differences. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Trends - On October 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36% to close at 3916.33 points with a trading volume of 837.938 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.06% to close at 13077.32 points with a trading volume of 1035.956 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 index rose by 1.45% with a trading volume of 348.159 billion yuan, opening at 7257.11, closing at 7344.05, with a high of 7350.92 and a low of 7236.63 [1]. - The CSI 500 index rose by 1.64% with a trading volume of 344.991 billion yuan, opening at 7095.62, closing at 7185.62, with a high of 7193.73 and a low of 7082.3 [1]. - The SSE 50 index rose by 1.09% with a trading volume of 147.27 billion yuan, opening at 2983.28, closing at 3007.26, with a high of 3014.1 and a low of 2979.12 [1]. - The SSE 300 index rose by 1.53% with a trading volume of 551.39 billion yuan, opening at 4556.12, closing at 4607.87, with a high of 4615.46 and a low of 4547.93 [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 104.87 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics and power equipment significantly boosted the index [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 115.98 points from the previous close, and the electronics sector significantly boosted the index [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 69.65 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics, communication, and power equipment significantly boosted the index [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 32.4 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics and banks significantly boosted the index [2]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 60.67, IM01 of - 135.11, IM02 of - 354.02, and IM03 of - 562.12 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 55.3, IC01 of - 109.79, IC02 of - 274.46, and IC03 of - 455.37 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.92, IF01 of - 21.29, IF02 of - 47.53, and IF03 of - 83.78 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.17, IH01 of - 0.02, IH02 of 0.36, and IH03 of - 0.72 [13]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points are provided, including specific values for different contract combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IC00 - 02) [23][25][26][27].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 10 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力01合约收盘价1609元/吨，微幅上涨0.12%。现货 | 震荡 | | | 市场弱势震荡，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均为1540元/吨，日环比均继续下跌10 | | | | 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应阶段性低位波动，行业日产量昨日18.35万吨，日环比 | | | | 增0.1万吨。需求跟进局部有所好转，但不同地区之间分化明显。昨日华东地区产销 | | | | 增至130%以上，其余地区产销多在60%-80%区间，个别地区仍不足10%。整体来看 | | | | ，尿素基本面未有实质性好转，但市场关于出口等方面消息扰动不断，后续需要等 | | | | 待官方验证。预计盘面仍维持宽幅震荡趋势，关注中下游低价采购力度、印标最终 | | | | 结果、出口政策动态及本周库存数据。 | | | | 周二纯碱期货价格延续震荡格局，主力01合约收盘价1210元/吨，跌幅1.47%。现货 市场报价多数稳定，贸 ...