Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core View - The A-share market is experiencing high valuations in hot sectors, with the dynamic PE of the CSI 500 index exceeding twice the standard deviation of the past 5 years. The "stock-bond seesaw effect" is evident, and regulatory authorities are emphasizing market stability. High-valuation sectors may face capital outflow pressure, and volatility is expected to increase around the Spring Festival [1] - Treasury bond futures show mixed performance, and the bond market lacks strong upward momentum under the backdrop of continuous policy support. Interest rates are expected to remain range-bound [1][2] Summary by Directory Research View - **Stock Index Futures**: The market adjusted with all three major indices down over 2%, and nearly 4,700 stocks falling. High valuations, regulatory emphasis on stability, and measures to cool the market may lead to capital outflows from high-valuation sectors and increased volatility [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30-year contract rose 0.18%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts declined slightly. The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan. The bond market lacks strong upward momentum, and interest rates are range-bound [1][2] Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined, with IC dropping 5.49% and IM down 4.71% from January 30 to February 2, 2026 [3] - **Stock Indices**: All major indices, including the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, decreased, with the CSI 500 falling 3.98% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS remained flat, TF and T declined slightly, and TL rose 0.13% [3] Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market adjusted throughout the day, with all three major indices down over 2%. Nearly 4,700 stocks fell, and trading volume reached 2.61 trillion yuan [1][5] - **Industry Sectors**: Only the power grid equipment and brewing sectors rose, while precious metals, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and semiconductor chips led the decline [5] - **Hot Concepts**: Power grid equipment stocks and liquor stocks rose, while precious metals, oil and gas, and semiconductor chip stocks declined significantly [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts display the price trends, basis trends, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, as well as the yields of treasury bonds and the capital interest rates [14][15][16] - **Exchange Rates**: Charts present the exchange rate trends between the US dollar, euro, pound, yen, and the RMB, including spot and forward exchange rates [22][23][24] Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master's degree holder from Jilin University, serves as the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, including macro fundamentals, key industry sectors, index financial reports, and market capital tracking [29]

硅策略月报 2026 年 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 工业硅&多晶硅：供需双弱，情绪悲观 p 2 工业硅&多晶硅：供需双弱，情绪悲观 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计1月国内工业硅产量33.3万吨，环比下滑6.4%，同比增长11.5%,。月度开炉数减少33台至210台，开炉率下滑4.15%至26.4%。 | | | 西北地区，新疆大厂月内关停23台矿热炉，陕西新开2台，新开2台，西北总计173台硅炉在产；西南地区，云南延续12台矿热炉在产，四川关停 | | | 7台，西南总计12台硅炉在产。其他地区，内蒙关停7台，河南关停1台。 | | | 2.需求：1月多晶硅产量下滑3.38万吨至8.31万吨，同比下滑12.6%，环比下滑28.9%。1月DMC产量下滑2.21万吨至18.3万吨，同比下滑21%，环 | | | 比下滑10.8%。监管及行业自律要求下，硅料厂继续下调开工，下游订单收缩，对高价较为抵触，1月订单仍在协商，实际成交寥寥，仍以完成 | | | 前期订单 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Urea - In January, urea supply increased steadily, demand was strong due to pre - holiday stocking, and prices rose. In February, supply is expected to further increase, and demand will first decline and then recover after the Spring Festival. From March to May, urea prices are usually demand - driven, with strong support, but price increases may trigger price - stabilizing mechanisms [5][6][8]. Soda Ash - In January, soda ash supply increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventory slightly accumulated. In February, supply will continue to increase, and demand will shrink. The supply - demand situation will be looser, and inventory pressure will increase. However, external factors may have a positive impact on futures prices [11][12][13]. Glass - In January, glass supply decreased slightly, and demand was supported. In February, supply is expected to decline slightly, but demand will decline seasonally more than supply, and inventory pressure will remain high. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is still not effectively resolved, but external factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [15]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industry Chain 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Urea: In January, the futures price of urea fluctuated strongly at a high level. As of January 30, the main 05 contract was reported at 1,790 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.7% [5]. - Soda Ash: In January, the futures price of soda ash fluctuated within a range. As of January 30, the main 05 contract was reported at 1,204 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.41% [11]. - Glass: In January, the futures price of glass fluctuated widely. As of January 30, the main 05 contract was reported at 1,056 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.94% [15]. 3.1.2 Futures - related Varieties - Various futures - related varieties such as glass - soda ash, urea - methanol, etc. are presented in the form of price difference trend charts [23]. 3.1.3 Raw Material Prices - Coal: The prices of different types of coal showed different changes in January [26]. - LNG: The ex - factory prices of LNG in various regions increased in January [30]. - Raw Salt: The prices of raw salt in some regions decreased slightly in January [33]. - Synthetic Ammonia: The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 4.45% in January [34]. 3.2 Urea: Demand Varies Before and After the Spring Festival, and There are Many Factors Restricting the Price Increase 3.2.1 Spot Price - In January, the spot price of urea increased. As of January 29, the prices in Shandong and Henan were 1,780 yuan/ton and 1,770 yuan/ton respectively, up 70 yuan/ton and 80 yuan/ton from the end of December [38]. 3.2.2 Basis - The basis of urea in different regions showed different changes in January [41]. 3.2.3 Industry Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of the urea industry increased in January. The weekly capacity utilization rate of urea in January 30 was 88.28%, up 7.98% month - on - month [46]. 3.2.4 Weekly and Daily Output - The daily output of urea increased in January. As of January 28, the daily output was 21.11 tons, up 8.75% month - on - month [53]. 3.2.5 Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory - In January, the enterprise inventory of urea decreased by 7.29% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 16.28% month - on - month [55]. 3.2.6 Profit and Cost - The production costs of different urea production processes changed in January, and the production profits also changed accordingly [59]. 3.2.7 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly apparent consumption of urea in January increased by 2.28% month - on - month, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 4.64% month - on - month [62]. 3.2.8 Downstream Demand - The operating rate and output of downstream industries such as melamine, compound fertilizer, etc. showed different changes in January [65][72]. 3.2.9 Monthly Import and Export Quantities - In December 2025, the import volume of urea decreased by 82.11% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 53.75% month - on - month [84]. 3.2.10 International Market - India's latest tender only purchased 970,000 tons of urea, far less than the planned 1.5 million tons, increasing the expectation of another tender. International urea prices rose significantly in January [7]. 3.2.11 Related Products - The prices of related products such as phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer, and small nitrogen fertilizers showed different changes in January [89][92]. 3.2.12 Urea Option Volatility - The historical volatility and volatility cone of urea options are presented in the report [95]. 3.3 Soda Ash: Fundamental Pressure Remains, and External Factors May Provide Support 3.3.1 Spot Price - In January, the domestic soda ash market price was weak. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in some regions decreased [102]. 3.3.2 Basis - The basis of soda ash in the Shahe area increased in January [107]. 3.3.3 Industry Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of the soda ash industry decreased slightly in January. The industry - wide operating rate on January 30 was 84.19%, down 2.23% month - on - month [112]. 3.3.4 Production - The weekly production of soda ash increased in January. The weekly production on January 30 was 783,100 tons, up 12.34% month - on - month [122]. 3.3.5 Enterprise Inventory - In January, the enterprise inventory of soda ash increased by 2.37% month - on - month [126]. 3.3.6 Monthly Import and Export Quantities - In December 2025, the import volume of soda ash increased by 1278.00% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 22.92% month - on - month [132]. 3.3.7 Cost - The production costs of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes decreased slightly in January [134]. 3.3.8 Profit - The production profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes increased slightly in January [138]. 3.3.9 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly apparent consumption of soda ash increased by 4.51% month - on - month, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 7.27% month - on - month [142]. 3.3.10 Heavy Soda Ash Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased in January [144]. 3.3.11 Light Soda Ash Downstream - The operating rates of downstream industries such as the printing and dyeing industry decreased in January [149]. 3.3.12 Soda Ash Option Volatility - The historical volatility and volatility cone of soda ash options are presented in the report [154]. 3.4 Glass: Supply and Demand of Glass Decline in February, and the Market Game Continues 3.4.1 Spot Price - In January, the domestic glass spot price increased slightly. As of January 30, the average market price of float glass was 1,107 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the end of December [15]. 3.4.2 Operating Rate and Production - The operating rate and weekly production of float glass decreased in January. The operating rate on January 30 was 71.86%, down 1.17% month - on - month [162]. 3.4.3 Daily Melting Volume - The daily melting volume of float glass decreased in January. As of January 30, it was 151,000 tons, down 0.11% month - on - month [166]. 3.4.4 Enterprise Inventory - In January, the enterprise inventory of glass decreased by 7.57% month - on - month [169]. 3.4.5 Cost and Profit - The production costs of different glass production processes changed slightly in January, and the production profits also changed accordingly [174]. 3.4.6 Apparent Consumption - The weekly apparent consumption of float glass decreased by 8.61% in January [178]. 3.4.7 Deep - processing - The operating rate of Low - E glass decreased by 2.90% in January, and the monthly output of deep - processed glass products showed different changes [180][183]. 3.4.8 Terminal Demand - Real estate - related data such as the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area showed different trends. The production and sales of the automobile industry and the production of household appliances also showed different changes [187][190][192]. 3.4.9 Monthly Import and Export Quantities - In December 2025, the export volume of float glass increased by 2.59% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 5.95% month - on - month [195]. 3.4.10 Glass Option Volatility - The historical volatility and volatility cone of glass options are presented in the report [198].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 791.5 | 798.5 | -7.0 | I05-I09 | 19.0 | 19.5 | -0.5 | | I09 | 772.5 | 779.0 | -6.5 | I09-I01 | 12.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | | I01 | 760.0 | 765.5 | -5.5 | I01-I05 | -31.5 | -33.0 | 1.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 0 ...

2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光期研究 2 0 2 6年2月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：弱现实与强预期博弈 p 2 | 目 录 | | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：地缘扰动原油价格 | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：装置变动不大 | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：印度BIS认证取消 | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游产成品低利润低库存 | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求面临考验 | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | p 3 1.1 价格： PX&PTA&MEG期货价格 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 PTA 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 4700 4900 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 ...

光期研究 2 0 2 6年2月涤纶短纤策略报告 2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 涤纶短纤：直纺涤短进入检修模式 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、涤纶短纤价格：跟随原油价格震荡 | | | | 2、涤纶短纤成本端：关注装置检修情况 | | | | 3、涤纶短纤供应端：开工回调 | | | | 4、涤纶短纤需求端：订单季节性走弱 | | | | 5、涤纶短纤终端需求：终端需求走弱 | | | | 6、涤纶短纤持仓情况 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：涤纶短纤期货、现货、基差 资料来源：iFind，光大期货研究所 | 单位：元/吨 | PF主力收盘价 | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 基 差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/1/29 | 6720 | 6700 | -20 | | 2025/12/31 | 6514 | 6610 | 96 | | 变化值 | 206 | 90 | -116 | | 涨跌幅 | 3. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The January USDA report was bearish, causing a sharp decline in US corn prices. The report raised the corn production forecast to 17.021 billion bushels, reaching a record high. US corn yield was 186.5 bushels per acre, with increased area and high yield, leading to a 5% drop in US corn prices. Concerns about rising global supply continued to ferment, and the US corn quarterly inventory reached an all - time high [3]. - In the domestic market, as the Lunar New Year approached in January, the sales progress of damp corn in the production areas increased, causing the futures prices of near - month corn contracts to decline, and the far - month contracts also adjusted accordingly. As of January 29, the national weekly average corn price was 2,332 yuan/ton [4]. - The corn starch industry has been in continuous losses, with industry profits hovering around the break - even point, and the starch futures prices have been oscillating downward [10]. - After the New Year's Day, the pig price declined, and pig farming shifted from profit to loss. Pig - listed enterprises actively sold their pigs before the Spring Festival [12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 0.1 - 0.7 Review - Wheat main - producing countries' production increased from a decrease. Sufficient global inventory overshadowed the market, and the expectation of a bumper wheat harvest in Argentina was continuously strengthened. The wheat price was at a 5 - year low. Factors affecting the wheat market in 2026 include the Fed's monetary policy, tariff policies and trade disputes, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation, the weather in wheat main - producing countries, and Russia's wheat production capacity and exports [5][6]. - The January USDA report was bearish for US corn. The carry - over inventory of US corn in the new year increased significantly, and the corn price fell to a 4 - month low and then oscillated upward. The US corn stock - to - use ratio increased, and the annual quote was at a low level. Factors affecting the US corn market in 2026 include the Fed's monetary policy, tariff policies and trade disputes, the weather in corn main - producing countries, and the US grain export sales situation [7]. - For DCE corn, the policy shifted from bullish to bearish. Near - month contracts first rose and then fell. Factors affecting the DCE corn market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the corn production and sales patterns in main - producing countries such as the US and China, the role of China's import - restriction policy, the impact of the imported corn auction policy, and pig prices and feed deep - processing consumption [8]. - The corn starch industry has been in continuous losses at the beginning of the year, and the starch futures prices have been adjusted at a high level. Factors affecting the DCE corn starch market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the impact of corn raw materials on starch quotes, the disturbance of starch by - product sales on starch quotes, and pig prices and feed deep - processing consumption [10]. - After the New Year's Day, the pig price declined, and the forward quote fell to a previous low. Factors affecting the DCE live pig market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the impact of breeding losses on the industry scale, the impact of improved breeding efficiency on costs, and the impact of raw material price changes such as soybean meal and corn on pig prices [11]. - In 2025/2026, the wheat production in global main - producing countries recovered and increased. China's wheat inventory decreased, while the inventories of other main - producing countries increased. The global wheat production increase was greater than the consumption increase, and the carry - over inventory increased significantly. The wheat market in 2026 will continue to focus on geopolitics [13]. - The corn production in global main - producing countries increased. The inventories in South America and the EU decreased, and the carry - over inventory of new - season US corn increased significantly. The US corn production increased substantially, and the industry expects the soybean area to increase and the corn area to decrease in 2026 [14]. 1.0 - 1.10 Supply and Demand - After the USDA report, US corn led the decline, and wheat followed. The January report was bearish, and corn prices fell 5% on the report day. The low - price advantage of the US grain market gradually emerged, and the global grain supply was sufficient, with supply - side pressure continuing to affect the market [15][40]. - In 2025, the US corn area increased significantly, and the production reached a record high. Currently, the industry expects the soybean area to increase and the corn area to decrease in 2026 [21]. - In January, the USDA estimated the US corn yield to be 186.5 bushels per acre, and the US corn quarterly inventory reached an all - time high [27]. - In mid - January, bargain - hunting buyers entered the US corn market. Low - price corn promoted sales, and after the sales progress improved, the corn futures prices regained support [33]. - In 2025, China imported 2.65 million tons of corn from January to December. The monthly import volume of corn increased significantly from November to December. The industry expects that after the China - US talks, China's imports of grains from the US will resume and increase. In the second half of 2025, to stabilize corn prices, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation issued an announcement on the competitive sales of imported corn, increasing market supply. The 2024/2025 annual imports of substitutes such as sorghum, corn, and barley in China totaled about 20 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of nearly 40 million tons. In 2025/2026, China - US negotiations are expected to increase the imports of corn and sorghum, and the current industry generally expects the year - on - year increase in corn imports to be between 5 - 10 million tons, and the peak of the total increase in imports of substitutes such as sorghum, corn, and barley is expected to be 20 million tons [43]. - At the end of January, the wheat price in the main production areas was 2,525 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous month and 5.38% year - on - year. After the New Year's Day, a total of 800,000 tons of competitive wheat was put on the market, and 565,300 tons were traded. The wheat market was supported by multiple factors and showed a slightly strong and oscillating trend [45]. - Currently, the corn starch operating rate is 59.99%. After the starch price increased, the enterprise order - signing slowed down. The expected profit of starch processing in Shandong is 12 yuan/ton. The corn starch price remained firm, and the low - price supply tightened [47][49]. - At the end of January, the national corn sales progress was 60%. The March contract first rose and then fell, and the long - position funds left the market, causing the futures price to oscillate at a high level [54]. - The port inventory has been at a low level. As of January 23, the inventory in the northern ports was 3.097 million tons lower year - on - year, and the inventory data was bullish [62]. 2.1 - 2.4 Outlook - In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the China - US procurement plan. It is expected that the procurement scale of agricultural products such as sorghum and corn will resume and increase in 2026 [70]. - The main corn 2603 contract first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, long - position funds left the market, and the far - month contract futures prices entered a tug - of - war stage [72]. - The average inventory of feed enterprises is 31.93 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.21%. The downstream stocking before the Spring Festival drove the futures and spot prices to rebound [75]. - The corn futures prices are in a positive arrangement. After the March contract hit the 2,300 mark, it fell back. The corn market faces a directional choice around the Spring Festival. The short - term trend is that funds will shift from the March contract to the May and July contracts, and the far - month contracts face a directional choice. In the long term, the expectation of a bumper harvest, combined with increased imports and substitutes, will cause the corn futures prices to return to the oscillating range, and downstream procurement will determine the direction. The recommended operation is to stop profit on accumulated options and then wait and see [82]. Policy - The industry expects that the China - US negotiations in 2026 will progress smoothly, and China will increase the imports of grains such as sorghum and corn while importing soybeans [83]. - The wheat minimum purchase price competitive trading had a 50% transaction rate in the first week, and 200,000 tons were sold again on January 14, with a market transaction rate of 80.49% [83]. - On January 7, the Inner Mongolia Branch of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation conducted a competitive sales. It put 95,400 tons on the market, with an average premium of 62 yuan/ton. The imported corn was sold at a premium, and the bullish sentiment was transmitted to the futures market [83]. - According to customs data, in December 2025, the import volume of corn (885811) starch was 180,733 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.94%. The import amount was 358,000 US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 21.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%. From January to December, the total import volume of corn (885811) starch was 5,248,226 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97.28%, and the total import amount was 6.5695 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. In December 2025, the export volume of corn (885811) starch was 16,739,626 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% and a year - on - year increase of 75.60%. The export amount was 6.4769 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.23%. From January to December, the total export volume of corn (885811) starch was 213,444,099 tons, a year - on - year increase of 967.96%, and the total export amount was 81.7879 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 797.93% [83]. - After the New Year's Day, a total of 800,000 tons of competitive wheat was put on the market (200,000 tons per week for four weeks), and 565,300 tons were traded. The transaction rates of the four times were 50%, 80.49%, 71.64%, and 77.55% respectively [83].

光期研究 碳 酸 锂 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 碳酸锂：基本面维稳 波动率新高 p 2 碳酸锂：基本面维稳 波动率新高 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：周度产量环比减少648吨至21569吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比减少670吨至13244吨，锂云母产量环比减少50吨至2832吨，盐湖提锂环比增 | | | 加90吨至3205吨，回收料提锂环比减少18吨至2288吨。根据SMM，2月电池级碳酸锂排产环比下降17.6%至58835吨，工业级碳酸锂环比下降 | | | 12.7%至23095吨。 | | | 2、需求：周度三元材料产量环比减少203吨至18053吨，库存环比减少177吨至18691吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比增加904吨至88223吨，库存环比 | | | 增加229吨至96819吨。据SMM，2月三元材料排产环比下降14.6%至69250吨，磷酸铁锂环比下降10.7%至354000吨；三元动力电池环比下降14.3% | | ...

铝策略月报 2026 年 2 月 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金：节假缓冲，先抑后扬 p 3 | 目 录 | | --- | | 1、价格：1月氧化铝期货震荡偏弱，截至30日主力收至768元/吨，月度跌幅0.4%。沪铝震荡偏强，月内主力收至 | | 24560元/吨，月度涨幅7.1%。铝合金震荡偏强，月内主力收至22820元/吨，月度涨幅4.4%。 | | 2、价差：1月氧化铝由贴水46元/吨扩至贴水1439元/吨，电解铝由贴水220元/吨扩至贴水240元/吨。 | | 3、供应：据SMM，预计1月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能8882万吨，产量749万吨，环比下滑0.4%，同比下滑1.2%。山 | | 东、山西及河南厂家均出现检修降负荷动作；1月国内电解铝运行产能提升至4410万吨，产量398万吨，环比增长3.1%， | | 同比增长7.7%，铝水比回落至75.1%。 | | 4、需求：高价和环控稀释备货表现，1月铝下游加工企业平均开工率60.2%，环比12月下调0.85%。其中铝板带开工率 | | 上调1%至65.3%，铝箔开工率上调1.05%至70.9%，铝型材开工率下调3.98%至47.6%，铝线缆开工率下调0.5 ...

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2026 年 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：补库需求对价格有一定支撑 p 2 铁合金：补库需求价格有一定支撑 锰 硅 供应：产量同比下降。依据铁合金在线数据，12月全国锰硅产量92.85万吨，环比小幅增加，全年锰硅产量1089.05万吨，同比增加36万 吨，增幅为3.4%。截至1月30日当周，锰硅周产量19.24万吨，周产量及1月产量均同比下降。 需求：钢厂锰硅需求量当周值环比有所好转，节前备货对锰硅需求有一定支撑。12月我国粗钢产量6817.74万吨，同比下降10.26%。1- 12月累计同比下降4.41%。截至1月末，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值11.72万吨，环比增加0.3%。1月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数为17.48天，环比增 加1.96天，同比增加0.5天。 库存：样本企业库存小幅下降，仍是近年来同期新高。1月63家样本企业库存持续小幅下降，截至1月末为37.33万吨，同比增加22.28万 吨。 成本与利润：锰矿价格涨跌不一，即期生产成本月环比增加。依据铁合金在 ...