黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3110 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅为 0.35%，持仓减少 0.69 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | 弱势整理 | | | 方坯价格上涨 10 元/吨至 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 3.61 万 | | | | 吨。据媒体报道，印尼今年计划将煤炭产量削减近四分之一，至约 6 亿吨，以提振煤价，个别矿企的减产 | | | | 幅度在 40%至 70%之间。受此影响，煤炭相关资产出现明显上涨，对黑色系走势形成一定提振。随着春节 | | | | 临近，建筑工地多数已经停工，终端需求渐趋停滞，现货市场逐步进入休市状态。目前螺纹库存尽管高于 | | | | 去年同期水平，但整体看库存压力并不算大，钢厂冬储资源组织较为顺利，贸易商心态也较为平和。目前 | | | | 螺纹仍处于矛盾不足，驱 ...

一、研究观点 点评 4 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8850/吨，日内跌幅 0.17%，持仓增 仓 6216 手至 24.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水 35 元/吨收至平 水。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 51195 元/吨，日内涨幅 4.25%，持 仓增仓 681 手至 39092 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 52500 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 52500 元/吨，现货升水收至 2305 元/吨。硅石 企业正式进入冬修期，矿石供应量整体呈收缩。下游受春节假期影响同 步进入全面检修，工业硅供给双减博弈下，重心有成本支撑、但能否有 向上驱动取决于大厂是否超预期减产。工信部召开会议再度提及反垄断 相关话题，硅片企业新单签订基本处于停摆状态，晶硅市场悲观预期延 续，硅料仍有跌价压力。关注行业库存能否减压以及硅料厂是否有扩大 减产应对计划。 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 1.32%至 147220 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元/ 吨至 153000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元/吨至 149500 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 3000 元/吨至 146500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 1030 吨至 34114 吨。 2. 乘联分会发文称，2026 年 1 月全国乘用车厂商新能源批发预估 90 万辆，同比增长 1%。根据重型货 车北斗营运证入网数据，2026 年 1 月全国共新增加新能源重卡 2.06 万辆（非终端上牌数据），同比 增长 184%、环比下降 40%。 3. 供给端，周度产量环比减少 648 吨至 21569 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比减少 670 吨至 13244 吨，锂云 母产量环比减少 50 吨至 2832 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 90 吨至 3205 吨，回收料提锂环比减少 18 吨 至 2288 吨；根据 SMM，2 月电池级碳酸锂排产环比下降 17.6%至 58835 吨，工业级碳 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1787元/吨，日环比提升0.56%。现货市场价 | 震荡 | | | 格多数稳定，个别地区价格小幅回落。昨日山东、河南市场价格分别为1770元/吨、1760元/ | | | | 吨，日环比分别维持稳定、下跌10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素日产量近期高位波动，昨日21. | | | | 03万吨，日环比增0.17万吨，后续气头企业复产仍将带动尿素供应提升。需求跟进情绪较仍 | | | | 较为积极，部分地区价格下调后市场成交明显好转，昨日主流地区产销率提升至120%~180% | | | | 高位。短期市场采购需求、旺季备肥需求仍有支撑，但后续春节临近，中下游采购力度及 | 宽幅 | | | 市场活跃度或有所回落。生产企业为预收假期订单或继续灵活调整价格，但在价格跌至中 | | | | 下游可接受价位时采购需求也仍将给市场托底。本周尿素企业库存继续下降2.79%，利于厂 | | | | 家稳 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.14%，报收 62.22 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.03%， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 报收 14680 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 1549 手至 71.63 万手，棉花 3128B 现货 价格指数 15660 元/吨，较前一日上涨 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期整体驱动有 | | | | 限。宏观层面的扰动逐渐减弱，基本面来看也并无新增矛盾，关注美元指数变化 | | | | 及美棉出口数据。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约窄幅震荡。2026 年中央一号文件 | | | 棉花 | 于近日发布，提到"推动棉花、糖料、天然橡胶等产业平稳发展"，"完善棉花 | 震荡 | | | 目标价格政策"等。基本面角度来看，节前郑棉上行驱动有限，当前棉花库存高 | | | | 位、进口增量，总供应充裕。节前下游纺织企业虽有补库动作，但目前纺企棉花 | | | | 库存可用天数已经创下近五年来同期新高，再度大幅补库动力有限，纺织企业也 | | | | 将陆续开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with the import loss of domestic refined copper spot narrowing. - US economic data shows mixed signals: the January ISM services PMI was 53.8, in line with December and the highest since October 2024, but the new orders index slowed; the January ADP new jobs were only 22,000, far below the expected 45,000, indicating weakening labor - market momentum. - Inventories across LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. - After digesting the impact of precious - metal adjustments, copper prices rebounded due to news. However, the copper market still faces weak spot fundamentals, rising inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. Prices may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, so caution is advised when chasing highs. But the rigid constraints on the copper - mine end and the certainty of long - term demand mean that any significant decline will attract long - term allocation funds and industrial buyers, laying a solid foundation for the medium - to - long - term rise of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. - Recently, alumina maintenance in various regions has increased, and supply disruptions have led to a narrow - range recovery. As the downstream stocking nears the end and logistics stagnates, alumina inventories are gradually accumulating and will decline as market sentiment fades. - The domestic proportion of aluminum water has decreased. High prices and repeated environmental protection controls in the Central Plains have led downstream to generally reduce or cancel pre - holiday stocking. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation and whether downstream stocking sentiment improves after the price correction [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME inventory increased, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the premium remained negative. - In terms of fundamentals, the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have strengthened, possibly due to concerns about supply shortages, and the marginal cost support has continued to rise. - Affected by the Spring Festival in February, stainless - steel weekly inventories have increased, but there is much maintenance on the supply side. In the new - energy sector, the MHP price is firm, providing strong cost support for nickel sulfate, but spot procurement and sales are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline. - Overall, although short - term demand has weakened, cost support remains strong, and the market sentiment has improved. With many disturbances from Indonesian news, attention should be paid to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 3,075 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 2,620 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import profit and loss changed from a loss of 2,952.1 yuan/ton to a profit of 337.9 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the price of some recycled lead products decreased. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 174 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 1,233 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import profit decreased [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of some aluminum - related products remained unchanged or increased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 423 tons, the total SHFE inventory increased by 19,718 tons on a weekly basis, the electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 10,000 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,550 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products remained unchanged or decreased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons, the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,602 tons, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 2,784 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most zinc - related products decreased. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged, and the weekly social inventory increased by 3,800 tons. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 2,859 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 5.2%, the SMM spot price increased by 13,150 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates decreased significantly. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 58.96 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 33,775 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far - Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][17][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research on the new - energy industry chain and hedging accounting [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute concentrating on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and has written many in - depth reports [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, and gives an "oscillating" view for each product [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $1.93 to $65.14/barrel (3.05% increase), Brent April contract rose $2.13 to $69.46/barrel (3.16% increase), and SC2603 rose 15.2 yuan to 473.5 yuan/barrel (3.32% increase). The US - Iran negotiation is facing twists and turns. EIA reported that US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased last week. Cold - snap - induced output decline supports oil prices, but geopolitical variables cause fluctuations. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2603) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) rebounded. The supply of both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, while the bunker fuel加注 activity is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. Affected by geopolitics and crude oil costs, the fundamentals are mixed with long and short factors, and there is pressure in the follow - up. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2603) rebounded. This week, the social inventory rate increased, the refinery inventory level decreased, and the plant operating rate decreased. In the early and middle of February, the inventory in the north is for downstream stocking, and the inventory in the south has some arbitrage demand. During the Spring Festival, the refinery and social inventories will increase. The asphalt is less volatile than crude oil, and the cracking spread has been repaired. The basis has weakened. Refineries are looking for alternative raw materials, and the production schedule may be adjusted later. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and raw material imports [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605, EG2605, and PX 603 all rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly differentiated and generally weak. Multiple MEG devices have restart, maintenance, and shutdown plans. With the decline of crude oil prices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Polyester raw material prices are expected to oscillate with costs. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - end price fluctuations, and the risk of insufficient demand recovery in late February [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. As of February 1, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. The natural rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The rubber fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external macro - factors [5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot prices in different regions and the prices of downstream products are given. The domestic methanol production is expected to decrease slightly in February, and the import volume will decline. The demand from eastern MTO devices will decrease. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load may put pressure on inventory reduction. The methanol price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [5]. - **Polyolefin**: On Wednesday, the prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. The supply is expected to increase slightly. In February, downstream enterprises will enter the holiday, leading to passive inventory increase. After the Spring Festival, the market will start to digest inventory. The fundamentals are not strongly supported in February, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of refineries and society. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted strongly. In February, the enterprise maintenance is less, and the production will remain high. The real - estate construction is weakening, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The "rush - to - export" demand is generated due to the cancellation of export tax - rebate on April 1. There is an expectation of supply reduction in the future, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, basis change, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending January 30, US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased due to winter storms. Crude oil production dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, and the crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 743,000 barrels [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the Iran - US talks in Oman, stating that the talks will be held at around 10 a.m. on the 6th in Muscat. Earlier, an Iranian official source said the talks were cancelled due to new US conditions and differences in the negotiation issues [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle - chip [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [30][33][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil (internal and external markets, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash - flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple "Outstanding Analyst" awards and led the energy research team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research and has served many listed companies [71]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple industry analyst awards and her team has won industry service awards. She is deeply involved in domestic and foreign energy industry research [72]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple analyst awards and her team has won a research team award. She is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [73]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree. He has passed the CFA Level III exam and has experience combining financial theory with industrial operations [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market fluctuated and then rose, with the Wind All - A index up 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan, and the pro - cyclical sectors were strong. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.02%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.15%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.83%, and the SSE 50 index rose 1.14%. Recent economic control policies provide fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - term. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading increases risk - aversion sentiment, and the market enters a high - level shock mode with increased short - term volatility [1]. - On Wednesday, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02%. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. Against the background of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a shock state. The recent economic control policies from various departments support the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools is beneficial to relevant sectors. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading increases market volatility, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly wait and see [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market is in a shock state. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. The bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the interest rate range - shock pattern continues [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes | Category | Instrument | 2026 - 02 - 04 | 2026 - 02 - 03 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index Futures | IH | 3,071.8 | 3,033.0 | 38.8 | 1.28% | | | IF | 4,693.6 | 4,653.0 | 40.6 | 0.87% | | | IC | 8,313.6 | 8,282.0 | 31.6 | 0.38% | | | IM | 8,203.4 | 8,183.0 | 20.4 | 0.25% | | Stock Index | SSE 50 | 3,069.2 | 3,034.6 | 34.7 | 1.14% | | | SSE 300 | 4,698.7 | 4,660.1 | 38.6 | 0.83% | | | CSI 500 | 8,299.1 | 8,286.7 | 12.4 | 0.15% | | | CSI 1000 | 8,207.1 | 8,209.1 | - 2.0 | - 0.02% | | Treasury Bond Futures | TS | 102.40 | 102.41 | - 0.016 | - 0.02% | | | TF | 105.85 | 105.91 | - 0.055 | - 0.05% | | | T | 108.24 | 108.26 | - 0.02 | - 0.02% | | | TL | 111.70 | 111.96 | - 0.26 | - 0.23% | [3] 3.3 Market News On February 3, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development and the Communist Youth League Central Committee held a symposium. The Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that it is necessary to ensure the basic housing needs of young people through measures such as "a bed, a room, a set of housing" to make young people stay and start businesses. On one hand, it is necessary to develop rental - type affordable housing and public rental housing; on the other hand, for young people with certain economic affordability, develop affordable housing for sale [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their monthly basis trends [5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [20][21][22][23][25][26].

Index Trends - On February 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to close at 4102.2 points with a trading volume of 1063.545 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% to close at 14156.27 points with a trading volume of 1417.426 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.02% with a trading volume of 516.215 billion yuan, opening at 8184.2, closing at 8207.12, with a high of 8216.2 and a low of 8101.2 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.15% with a trading volume of 501.887 billion yuan, opening at 8270.84, closing at 8299.06, with a high of 8309.86 and a low of 8179.35 [1] - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.83% with a trading volume of 636.019 billion yuan, opening at 4647.97, closing at 4698.68, with a high of 4701.48 and a low of 4641.84 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.14% with a trading volume of 169.882 billion yuan, opening at 3033.55, closing at 3069.24, with a high of 3070.17 and a low of 3030.34 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Index - The CSI 1000 rose -1.98 points from the previous close. Power equipment, public utilities, and pharmaceutical biology sectors significantly boosted the index, while media, electronics, and computer sectors pulled it down [2] - The CSI 500 rose 12.36 points from the previous close. Pharmaceutical biology, coal, and automobile sectors significantly boosted the index, while computer, media, and electronics sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 300 rose 38.57 points from the previous close. Power equipment, food and beverage, and banking sectors significantly boosted the index, while communication and electronics sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 50 rose 34.66 points from the previous close. Food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking sectors significantly boosted the index, while the electronics sector pulled it down [2] Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Cost of Opening Positions - IM00 average daily basis was -5.88, IM01 was -37.83, IM02 was -194.47, IM03 was -346.69 [13] - IC00 average daily basis was -6.39, IC01 was -28.63, IC02 was -123.59, IC03 was -231.61 [13] - IF00 average daily basis was -4.7, IF01 was -11.25, IF02 was -37.8, IF03 was -89.59 [13] - IH00 average daily basis was -1.2, IH01 was -1.96, IH02 was -8.69, IH03 was -38.43 [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices rebounded significantly after digesting the impact of precious metal adjustments, but the copper market still faces challenges such as weak spot fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. The price may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, but the adjustment will lay a solid foundation for the medium - to long - term rise of copper prices [1]. - Alumina oscillated weakly, while aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Supply disruptions have led alumina into a narrow - range repair state, but inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - Nickel prices rose. Although the phased demand has weakened, the cost support remains strong, and there may be opportunities to try long positions lightly near the cost line [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Copper - Macro: The dovish - leaning Fed governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and the partial shutdown of the US government is expected to end [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased by 1450 tons to 176,125 tons; Comex inventory increased by 2284 tons to 528,252 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons to 153,021 tons, and BC copper remained at 10,615 tons [1]. - Demand: As copper prices adjusted, the purchasing willingness increased significantly [1]. - News: The deputy secretary - general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina oscillated weakly, AO2605 closed at 2806 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; aluminum alloy AD2603 closed at 22,300 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; Shanghai aluminum AL2603 closed at 23,865 yuan/ton, up 1.47% [1]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation [1][2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel rose 2.05% to $17,395/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 2.34% to 135,770 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained at 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1606 tons to 48,180 tons [2]. - Fundamentals: Nickel ore and nickel - iron prices strengthened in trading, and the supply may be tight. The cost support is rising. Although the demand is weakening, the price is expected to be strongly supported [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Price: The price of flat - water copper increased by 870 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 1450 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1860 tons [3]. Lead - Price: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 28,775 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4021 tons [3]. Aluminum - Price: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased, and the price of ADC12 in South China decreased by 200 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 253 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Price: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 900 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B coil in Wuxi decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1606 tons, and social inventory increased by 2784 tons [4]. Zinc - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 1.0%, and the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 increased by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory decreased by 125 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.38 million tons [6]. Tin - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 9.1%, and the price of SMM spot decreased by 10,850 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 10 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premium and discount, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals [11][12][19]