Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The deepening of the discount of zinc spot to futures reflects the market's pricing of loose near - term supply, with the futures - to - spot structure favoring "futures weaker than spot". After the macro - sentiment fades, fundamentals dominate pricing, and short - term upside is limited by high inventories. It may mainly maintain range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On September 19, 2025, the main Shanghai zinc contract (ZN2511) showed a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. It fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after the opening and declined under pressure in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [2]. - **Variety Prices**: There were 12 contracts for Shanghai zinc futures on that day. The total position of the variety was 236,875 lots, an increase of 7,057 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the position of the active contract zn2511 increased by 13,863 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, the basis on that day was - 55 yuan/ton, and the contango widened significantly compared to the previous day's basis of - 25 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Associated Data Tracking and Interpretation**: - **Macro - aspect**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the previous macro - positive expectations were gradually digested. Long - position funds took profits, and market sentiment returned to rationality [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the number of maintenance at domestic smelters increased (enterprises such as Guangxi Yusheng and Hulunbuir Chihong affected a total production capacity of 500,000 tons). However, the annual resumption scale has reached 4.208 million tons (total resumption plan of 5.418 million tons), and supply pressure still exists [8]. - **Demand - side**: The "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were weak. Many galvanizing plants reduced or stopped production. Downstream buyers mainly used point - price procurement. The trading among traders was light before noon, and overall consumption improved slowly [8].

Report Overview - Research Date: September 18, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 18, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1681 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1662 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 287,000 lots, an increase of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally remained stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1680 yuan/ton (basis 10 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1530 yuan/ton (basis -140 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1630 yuan/ton (basis -40 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1650 yuan/ton (basis -20 yuan/ton) [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Prices and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally maintained a stable trend, with slight differences in some areas due to demand [6] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as planned, but the policy signals it released were complex, with both hawkish and dovish stances [7][8] 4. Market Outlook - Currently, domestic urea production has rebounded, but agricultural demand is in the off - season, industrial demand is growing slowly, and upstream factories are continuously accumulating inventory. The lowest bid in the latest Indian tender was lower than market expectations. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises has reached 1165300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32600 tons. Supply is slightly stronger than demand, and enterprise inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Synthetic rubber [1] - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of report: September 18, 2025 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, with supply, inventory, and cost factors influencing the market. Future price movements depend on pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, synthetic rubber fluctuated and declined. The BR2511 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton, reached a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,355 yuan/ton, and closed at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton or 1.76% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 116,100 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 74,500 lots, an increase of 7,604 lots [2] - **Variety price**: The BR2510 contract opened at 11,610 yuan/ton with a high of 11,660 yuan/ton; the BR2512 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton with a high of 11,590 yuan/ton; the BR2601 contract opened at 11,605 yuan/ton, closed at 11,440 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 19,247 lots and an open interest of 22,233 lots [4] - **Spot price**: On September 18, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market decreased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Some arbitrage resources had lower prices, and the mainstream supply price was affected [5] 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry information**: As of September 17, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous period. However, trader inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and there is still pressure on total social inventory. Butadiene port inventory has dropped to 25,600 tons, but 50,000 tons of shipments are expected to arrive in October, weakening cost - side support [6] - **Policy and market dynamics**: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18, China's rubber tire exports in August were 870,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase [6] 4.3 Market Outlook - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Although there are disruptions in the natural rubber tapping process due to rainfall and high raw material prices, the spot trading sentiment has weakened. Supply and inventory pressures dominate the market. The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, and future price movements need to pay attention to pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On September 18, the main contract of iron ore futures showed a pattern of "opening high and moving low, oscillating within a range". The current core contradiction in the market lies in the game between the short - term National Day restocking expectations and steel mill restart demand and the supply - side pressure from the recovery of overseas miners' shipments and domestic ore supply. With the emotional disturbance after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized at the macro level, the price fluctuated narrowly between 797 - 809 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals feature "strong demand expectations but weak reality, and the recovery of supply suppressing the upside space". The technical side lacks clear trend signals. In the short term, it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement rhythm of steel terminal demand and the progress of ore inventory depletion [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract oscillated. The lowest point was 797, the highest was 809, and it closed at 800, with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 308,200 lots, an increase of 53,900 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was 533,500 lots, a decrease of 936 lots compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 contracts of iron ore futures showed a reverse market pattern with near - term strength and long - term weakness. All contracts adjusted throughout the day, with the adjustment range between 0.5 and 2 points. The total open interest of the variety was 841,964 lots, an increase of 1,483 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the iron ore 2605 contract increased the most, by 2,612 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to the market data from Flush Futures, in the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main contract iron ore i2601 oscillated slightly, with a maximum of 30 yuan/ton, a minimum of 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton on the day [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts oscillated slightly, with a maximum of 1,900 lots, a minimum of 1,700 lots, and 1,700 lots on the day [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: On September 18, the Iron Ore Working Committee of the China Iron and Steel Association held an iron ore working meeting in Beijing to analyze the current iron ore market situation, study recent key work, and make arrangements for the import iron ore port spot price index to be launched by the Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center [8]. - **Macro News**: The market has expectations for subsequent macro - policies, especially industrial policies such as "anti - involution" and "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity". These policies aim to optimize the industry structure and may boost market sentiment and long - term supply expectations. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting, in line with market expectations [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The results of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, changes in domestic aluminum social inventory, and the operating conditions of downstream processing enterprises will determine the subsequent breakthrough direction of aluminum prices [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On September 17, 2025, the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum futures showed a volatile downward trend throughout the day, closing with a negative line, down about 0.38% from the previous settlement to 20910 points. The daily trading volume was 87,910 lots, and the open interest was 137,521 lots [2]. - The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 588,644 lots, a decrease of 10,552 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 decreased by 16,514 lots, indicating capital reduction during the decline [3]. 3.2 Spot Market On September 17, 2025, the basis of the main contract al2510 of Shanghai Aluminum strengthened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,890 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro - information**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting is imminent. The significant deterioration of the US employment market data has strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" by General Secretary Xi Jinping published in Qiushi Journal, aiming to rectify the disorderly low - price competition among enterprises, provides support for the market [7]. - **Fundamental information**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level and is approaching the "ceiling", with limited subsequent increments. With the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has rebounded, and orders in related fields such as photovoltaics and automobiles have increased. However, high - priced aluminum significantly suppresses consumption, and the overall purchasing willingness is not strong. The electrolytic aluminum inventory fluctuates, and a stable de - stocking trend has not been formed [8]. - **Technical analysis**: The daily line of the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum effectively broke below the 5 - day moving average and tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The MACD red column shrank, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and market participants showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price trend of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract faces certain uncertainties due to bottlenecks on the supply - side, uncertainties on the demand - side, and inventory changes. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress in Myanmar [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.2 Variety Price - There are 12 Shanghai Tin futures contracts. The total trading volume of the variety is 79,845 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai Tin contracts is 55,467 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai Tin contract 2510 is 23,007 lots [5][6] 2 Spot Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract today is 274,260 yuan/ton. The spot quotation of Shanghai Tin in the Yangtze River spot market on the same day is 274,260 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,720 yuan/ton [7] 3 Influence Factors - Supply - side: Although Myanmar's Wa State has obtained mining licenses, the rainy season hinders resumption of production, and Thailand prohibits over - land transit transportation. It is difficult to significantly increase production before November. The power negotiation deadlock in Congo - Kinshasa and the decline in ore grade in Australia also restrict supply, making the current Shanghai Tin spot market relatively tight [8] - Demand - side: Despite the expected "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market is still cautious about domestic consumption performance, and the demand release rhythm may be postponed. The tight supply situation supports the spot price above the futures price [8]

COMEX 20250917 2510 835.08 / 7.0 / 0.83% | | 图 3：上期所黄金期货合约行情图 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今井監 | 磨煌W | 磨喉科 | 收盘价 | 结算参考 રી | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持仓手/变化 | | | 商品名称:黄金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2510 | 838.12 | 841.16 | 843.42 | 834.16 | 835.08 | 839.00 | -3.04 | 0.88 | 164311 | 13785765.84 | 96007 | -8053 | | 2511 | 839.40 | 842.66 | 845.00 | 835.32 | 836.40 | 839.90 | -3.00 | 0.50 | 1668 | 140096.16 | ae13 | -147 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Henghao's soybean oil futures [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soybean oil futures closed higher with a slight inflow of funds, indicating a slightly improved market sentiment. Despite significant inventory pressure at domestic ports and uncertainties in the US biodiesel policy, the high spot premium and the staged improvement in Malaysia's palm oil export data provide support. In the short term, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors and no clear single - sided driver, the futures price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. Future focus should be on the final decision of the US EPA's biofuel policy, the progress of China - US trade negotiations, and the actual performance of pre - festival stocking demand in China [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 16, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an overall volatile upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,418 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton or 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 297,565 lots, and the open interest was 597,730 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 350,578 lots, and the total open interest was 849,672 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.1.3 Related Market - The daily trading volume of soybean oil options was 63,696 lots, and the open interest was 105,582 lots, an increase of 9,804 lots. The number of exercised options was 0 [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,640 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,418 yuan/ton, with a basis of 222 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 15, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 12,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 1,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts, while net - buying 1,500 lots of wheat futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the mix of bullish and bearish factors. Key factors to watch include the US EPA's biofuel policy decision, China - US trade negotiation progress, and domestic pre - festival stocking demand [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View The price of the main contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures (A2511) was blocked from rebounding and showed a weak trend. In the short term, in the context of the stable - to - declining spot price of soybeans, the price of the A2511 contract of Bean No.1 futures may continue the low - level volatile and weak trend [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 16, 2025, the main contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures (A2511) was blocked from rebounding and fluctuated weakly throughout the day. The opening price was 3935 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3948 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3922 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3924 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.46% from the previous day. The trading volume was 102,878 lots, the open interest was 210,185 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 12,737 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: Different contracts of Bean No.1 futures all showed a downward trend. For example, the A2511 contract closed at 3924 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.46%; the A2601 contract closed at 3930 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.28% [3] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis and Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The basis of Bean No.1 was 136 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen. The total number of registered warehouse receipts of Bean No.1 was 7952 lots, which was the same as the previous trading day [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: The average quotation of domestic soybeans was 4037 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%, and the spot price of soybeans weakened slightly. The inventory of soybeans in major ports was 6.6584 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and the inventory accumulation speed of port soybeans slowed down [8][9] - **Industry News**: The landed duty - paid price of imported soybeans in the near - month was blocked from rebounding, with stable - to - decreasing prices. The domestic soybean crushing profit was stable - to - decreasing, while the decline of the imported soybean crushing profit slowed down and the profit stabilized and rebounded [10]

成文日期：20250912 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 载 Hour 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250912）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下跌，收盘价为 1663 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1661 元/吨,成交量 12.5 万 手，较上日持平，持仓量 30.1 万手，较上日增加 0.8 万手。 表 1：尿素期货当日行情表 20250912 1：尿素主力合约分时图 | 合约名称 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 目增仓 成交量 开盘 最高 最低 | | --- | | 尿素2509 ----------------- 1336 - 1583 - 1568 - 1578 | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2601 M | 图 2：尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 图片来源：国金期货 wh ...