Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the manganese silicon futures showed a volatile upward trend. Fundamentally, the recovery of hot metal production drives demand, and the relatively stable cost of manganese ore provides support. However, the pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of funds suppresses the market volatility. Technically, the price is in a low - level volatile range, with balanced long and short forces. In the short term, it may continue to consolidate in the range of 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton. In the long term, attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand pattern after the peak season and the risk of cost reduction [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5890 yuan/ton, with a high of 5948 yuan/ton, a low of 5868 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5916 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 169,412 lots, and the open interest was 333,773 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 529,129 lots, a decrease of 9,301 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,401 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract of manganese silicon was 27,387 contracts, and the open interest of put options was 22,849 contracts, with a PCR of 0.834 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 24, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 66 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 24, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 60,014, an increase of 517 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: In the Ningxia region, the overall start - up is stable, with only a few producers reducing production due to profit factors. The pre - holiday manganese ore stocking has basically ended. Some manufacturers have slightly higher inventory but still within the normal range, while most are in the order - delivery stage with low inventory. A ferrosilicon furnace in this region plans to switch to high - silicon product production this week. In the Inner Mongolia region, the manganese silicon production is running smoothly, and the started enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. In the spot market, the inventory remains low, and the current order schedule extends to mid - October. The manganese silicon production in the southern region is showing a recovery trend, with some factories restarting two ore - heating furnaces and planning to gradually increase production to full capacity [9][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 24, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a positive line. The 5 - day moving average and the 10 - day moving average were intertwined, indicating a balance between long and short forces without a clear trend. The intraday price failed to break through the resistance level of 5950 yuan/ton and closed at 5916 yuan/ton. The support level below can be focused on around 5800 yuan/ton. There are still differences in the market, and a breakthrough signal is needed to confirm the direction [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend. Recent geopolitical disturbances have provided support through geopolitical premiums, but the expected increase in Middle - East production has limited the upside potential of oil prices. Overall, despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil is supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,796 yuan/ton this week, up 79 yuan/ton or 2.91% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,848 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,766 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,551,108 lots and an open interest of 221,820 lots, a decrease of 8,617 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The fuel oil futures contract prices showed an inverse market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The fuel oil spot market was weak this week. The current basis level was in the lower range of recent months, indicating greater price pressure in the spot market compared to the futures market. The current spot market supply is very loose, and sellers are willing to sell at prices lower than the futures price [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, 2025, the total fuel oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 127,140 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. All these warehouse receipts were in bonded warehouses [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors The fuel oil benchmark price was 5,450 yuan/ton, up nearly 1.2% compared to the beginning of the month. The 380CST fuel oil benchmark price was 438 US dollars/ton, up 0.9% compared to the beginning of the month [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook Overall, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend in the game between crude oil cost drivers and its own fundamentals. High basis and geopolitical premiums were the main features of the market. Despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil was supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums, with relatively limited decline. The significant decline in inventories in Singapore and Fujairah provided some support, but the expected increase in Middle - East production and weak global demand limited the upside potential. In the future, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, Fed monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - During the week of September 15 - 19, 2025, the caustic soda futures price stopped falling and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.16%. Next week, as the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the operating rate is expected to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price rebounded this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH101) rose 81 yuan/ton to 2641 yuan/ton, a 3.16% increase. The highest price was 2657 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2548 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 114,000 lots, a decrease of 4,712 lots from last week. The trading volume increased by 316,000 lots to 1.852 million lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Except for the near - month SH510 contract, which declined, other caustic soda futures contracts generally rose this week, and the open interest of the main contract SH601 decreased [4]. - **Related Market**: The trading volume of caustic soda 01 contract options increased compared to last week, with call options performing stronger than put options. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2320 - 2680 point range [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped 70 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.05%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price rebounded while the spot price declined, and the basis turned negative, reaching - 141 yuan/ton as of Friday [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: As of September 18, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.9%, a 1.5% decrease from last week. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 378,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.02% increase from last week and an 18.22% increase year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 20.15%, a 0.75% increase from last week [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily price of the main caustic soda contract SH601 gradually increased, and the trading volume increased compared to last week [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - This week, the caustic soda futures price strengthened, and the open interest of the main contract decreased. The alumina operating rate remained at 84.0%. The non - aluminum demand showed that the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.52%, a 1.75% increase from last week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, the same as last week. Next week, as the previously maintained devices resume operation, the supply is expected to increase. Considering the high inventory and sufficient supply in Shandong before the National Day holiday, the spot price may continue to be weak. Future market trends need to focus on the purchasing volume of the main downstream and device fluctuations [14].

成文日期：20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250919）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行，收盘价为 1661 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手，较上日减少 0.1 万手，持仓量 29.7 万手，较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1： 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The industrial silicon futures price may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, supported by the cost side and market expectations of supply contraction. However, the upside space may be limited due to high inventory levels and limited improvement in demand, as well as potential under - performance of supply - side production cuts [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose significantly, with a trading volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 weakened. The price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 was 9,100 yuan/ton on the day, and the basis was - 205 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, showing a slowdown after consecutive weeks of growth. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, with the operating rate increasing by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 2,135 tons [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily chart, the industrial silicon main 2511 contract closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent trading range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator formed a golden cross above the zero - axis, indicating an increase in short - term bullish power. However, the price is approaching the resistance level of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and further upward movement requires continuous volume support and effective breakthrough of this resistance area [7]. 3.4 Market Outlook The short - term trend of industrial silicon futures prices may be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside space may be limited if supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weakening capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, yet macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 19, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,328 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 331,651 lots and an open interest of 571,426 lots, a decrease of 3,418 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 378,156 lots, and the total open interest was 820,566 lots, a decrease of 3,207 lots compared to the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 40,410 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 110,114 lots, an increase of 2,676 lots in open interest, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,560 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,336 yuan/ton, with a basis of 224 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 18, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 4,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 3,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures closed higher in an oscillating manner, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weak capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, while macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. As the traditional consumption peak season in the fourth quarter approaches, the strength of demand recovery will be the key driver. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10].

Report Overview - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Date: September 21, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the domestic urea spot market continued to decline. The market had sufficient supply, rising social inventories, and persistent supply - demand pressure. Low - price transactions dominated the market [2] Section Summaries 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - From September 15 - 21, 2025, urea futures contracts had similar prices with small overall spreads, showing a volatile trend. UR510 closed at 1,570 yuan/ton, opened at 1,586 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,608 yuan/ton, a low of 1,567 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.76%, trading volume of 6,745 lots, and an open interest of 5,219 lots. UR601 closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, opened at 1,666 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,704 yuan/ton, a low of 1,656 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 615,000 lots, and an open interest of 297,000 lots [3] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 19, according to Steel Union data, small - granular urea in East China's Hualu Hengsheng was priced at 1,650 yuan/ton (basis - 11 yuan/ton), in Central China's Henan Xinlianxin at 1,660 yuan/ton (basis - 1 yuan/ton), and in Northwest China's Ningxia Petrochemical at 1,530 yuan/ton (basis - 131 yuan/ton), reflecting local demand differences with mild overall fluctuations [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of September 19, 2025, according to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, there were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, a slight increase from last week, indicating a short - term market in a wait - and - see equilibrium [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - Supply: The urea industry is expected to achieve a net new capacity of nearly 4 million tons this year, with a capacity growth rate exceeding 4%. Coal prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. Coal - based urea production maintains some profit, while natural - gas - based urea is in a loss state. If the loss persists, the operating rate of gas - based plants may decline slightly. The annual output growth is expected to be around 5% - 6%, but if the spot price drops further, the operating rate may adjust negatively, and the output growth rate may fall to 1% - 2% [10] - Demand: Traders are gradually picking up goods for export, reducing the possibility of a significant short - term inventory build - up. Although the pressure of pending orders and inventory has increased, leading to a decline in spot quotes, the market may experience a phased recovery as export channels gradually expand. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the industry fundamentals are expected to face pressure in the second half of the year [11] - Policy: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024 [11] 4. Market Outlook - This year, urea capacity is expected to grow by over 4%, and the output growth rate is about 5% - 6%, but falling prices may suppress the operating rate. On the demand side, export orders support inventory, while weakening agricultural demand pressures the market in the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve starting an interest - rate cut cycle, the macro - environment is becoming more accommodative. The urea market may have a short - term phased rebound, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals remain under pressure. Future attention should be paid to changes in the operating rate and export policies [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 19, 2025, the chemical market sentiment was average. The terminal of soda ash replenished stocks before the holiday, and the intraday market was weakly stable. Recently, the soda ash plants were under maintenance, and the overall supply decreased slightly from the high level. In the short term, the profitability of downstream glass increased, and some manufacturers stocked up before the holiday, driving the inventory reduction of soda ash plants. After the soda ash futures rebounded, it declined. With the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short - term trend of soda ash futures may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of policies such as environmental protection and production restrictions on the supply side and changes in macro - sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 19, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a volatile trend. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1305 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1321 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1301 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 922,000 lots, a decrease of 574,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.382 million lots, a decrease of 9942 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price | Contract Name | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda Ash 2511 | 1227 | 1242 | 1222 | 1238 | - 1 | - 0.08% | 174,755 | 132,155 | | Soda Ash 2601 M | 1305 | 1321 | 1301 | 1318 | 1 | 0.08% | 922,285 | 1,381,981 | | Soda Ash 2605 | 1397 | 1412 | 1394 | 1407 | 2 | 0.14% | 30,296 | 210,144 | [3] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 19, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared with September 18. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, etc [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Chain - related - Before the holiday, glass slightly replenished stocks, and the demand support was average. In September, the profit of photovoltaic glass turned from loss to profit, and terminal component manufacturers expanded raw material procurement, which generally supported the increase in soda ash demand. However, there were differences in the sales situation among different enterprises, and the confidence in the future market was slightly divided [6] 3.3.2 Fundamental - related - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend. However, due to high inventory and limited demand improvement, if the supply - side production cut is less than expected, the upside space may be restricted [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract of the futures variety rose sharply and closed with a positive line. The full - day trading volume was 510,306 lots, and the open interest was 311,097 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 has weakened. The quotation of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 on the day was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis on the day was - 205 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous week. After several consecutive weeks of growth, it slowed down for the first time. The weekly output of industrial silicon of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Sichuan was 2,135 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily chart, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent shock range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator had a golden cross above the zero axis. However, the current price is close to the pressure level in the range of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - The fundamentals of industrial silicon supply and demand have not changed significantly for the time being, but the cost side supports the price. The market expects the supply side to shrink later. Combined with the strong rally of the market today, the short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend [10]