撰写品种：不锈钢 撰写时间：2025-4-15 回顾周期：日度 研究所：戴小红 咨询证号（Z0000213） 不锈钢日度报告 品种名称：不锈钢 截止 4 月 14 日收市，不锈钢主力合约 SS2506 合约开盘价 12825，最高 12860 点， 最低 12735 点，收于 12805 点、当日上涨 40 点，涨幅 0.31%，振幅 0.98%。主力合约 成交增加 10835 手至 13.3 万手，持仓量增加 8119 手至 12.7 万手，资金流入 7611 万， 沉淀资金 11.39 亿。上期所不锈钢仓单录得 191564 吨，较上一日减少 4427 吨。持仓 排名前 20 席期商持仓，多单总计 29030 手，较上日减少 3978 手，空单总计 33236 手， 较上日减少 3404 手。基差为 538 元/吨，较上日走缩 127 元/吨。 一、 影响行情的主要因素 不锈钢期货高开，对现货市场报价有一定的带动作用，不过由于市场走向仍不清 晰，整体价格以持稳为主。期货盘面的走强在一定程度上带动了现货市场，促使部分市 场报价上调，但市场中存在部分低价货源，且观望情绪浓厚，限制了价格上涨幅度。镍 矿方面，印 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 14, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core View - Affected by the overall macro - sentiment, caustic soda futures opened lower last week. After a small rebound, it continued to weaken, hitting a new low for the year. With high inventory and high production, the future trend is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement progress and macro - policy changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - **Price**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the macro - environment, caustic soda futures opened lower. The SH main contract continued to find the bottom, hitting an annual low of 2,267 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of April 11, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 5.60% [4]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.32 million tons to 83.26 million tons, and flake caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.88 million tons to 10.61 million tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.83 million tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will increase next week [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 0.65% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 27.82%, an increase of 0.34% month - on - month [5]. - **Cost**: The price of raw salt was lowered again. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt in Central China remained at 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest remained at 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit**: The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.61% compared with the previous week. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was continuously lowered this week, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in a decline in the overall chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 78.88%, a decrease of 4.49% month - on - month. The price of alumina continued to decline this week. As of April 11, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,870 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 83.61%, a decrease of 4.46% month - on - month; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.35%, a decrease of 4.13% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the quotation of liquid caustic soda was stable with minor fluctuations. The export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China this week was FOB 440 - 450 US dollars/ton [5]. II. Illustrations - The report provides six illustrations including domestic caustic soda operating rate, domestic sample enterprise liquid caustic soda factory inventory, domestic viscose staple fiber industry capacity utilization rate, caustic soda main contract basis, spot liquid caustic soda price, and caustic soda main continuous K - line (daily line) [6][9][13]

撰写品种：股指期货 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 11 日 回顾周期：日度 分析师： 武吟秋 咨询证号：Z0018989 股指期货日报：特朗普关税政策似儿戏，美资产遭抛 售 整理来看，特朗普这种近乎儿戏的关税政策，使得国外对于特朗普失去了信任， 美国的相关资产被重新抛售，美国的股债汇被三杀！而在目前的贸易摩擦态势逐渐明 朗以后，中国在面对关税方面的问题，已经相对来说比较游刃有余，国内也将回到解 决本土自身的基本面的问题上来，比如如何拓展新的出口渠道，如果出口转内销等问 题都需要一些实质性的政策或者措施来推动。因此，短期内股指行情会出现震荡行情 的走势，短期如遇到回踩不必过于担忧和惊慌。 三： 股指期货日 K 线图 一：盘面情况： （20250410）昨天，上个交易日，A 股继续反弹。四大指数高开后震荡，上证 50 收涨 0.60%，沪深 300 收涨 1.31%，中证 500 收涨 1.92%，中证 1000 收涨 2.34%。市场全天呈现震荡走势。市场延续普涨格局，市场热点快速轮动。板块上 看，一级行业全线上涨，商贸零售、纺织服饰、有色、汽车、传媒涨幅居前，煤炭、 公共事业涨幅最后。全市场 4948 只个 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 10, affected by the US suspending the additional tariffs on some countries for 90 days, crude oil and other oils rose sharply. The BMD Malaysian palm oil rose from a low level, and the domestic palm oil futures and spot prices also increased. The domestic palm oil market is currently mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the short - term Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, with intense long - short game on the futures market [3][5][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On April 10, the BMD Malaysian palm oil closed at 4201 ringgit/ton, up 1.33% from the settlement price; the domestic continuous palm oil P2505 closed at 8754 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from the settlement price, with trading volume increasing to 641,100 lots and positions decreasing to 201,400 lots. The P2509 contract closed at 8186 yuan/ton, up 2.12% from the settlement price, with trading volume of 420,400 lots and positions increasing to 261,100 lots. The 05 - 09 spread narrowed to 568 yuan/ton, the soybean - palm main 05 - period spread was - 1080 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm main 05 - period spread was 511 yuan/ton [3] - On April 10, the spot price of palm oil at each port was 9200 - 9350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import profit was - 405.3 yuan/ton, the basis dropped to - 100.67 yuan/ton; the soybean - palm spot spread was - 1201.65 yuan/ton [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis - According to MPOB data, the production of Malaysian palm oil in March was 1.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; the end - of - month inventory was 1.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, the first increase in the past six months. High - frequency shipping data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of April increased by 29.29% - 52.79% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered tariffs, and the US tariff policy implementation was postponed, giving Malaysian palm oil an obvious export advantage [10] - The domestic palm oil has rigid - demand transactions, the inventory is still at a low level, the import profit is continuously low, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a need for replenishment in the later stage [10] 3. Future Outlook - Currently, domestic palm oil is mainly for rigid - demand procurement. In the short term, the Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, and the long - short game on the futures market is intense. The price of the P2505 contract on the futures market has rebounded from the bottom, and the closing price is temporarily blocked by the upper 5 - day moving average. In the short term, under the stimulus of news, the price of the P2505 contract of palm oil futures may fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average [12]

撰写品种：国债期货 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 11 日 回顾周期：日度 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 分析师：武吟秋 咨询证号（Z0018989） 二、国债期货图文 图1：二年国债主力040690 国债期货日度报告 国债期货： 2025 年 4 月 10 日周四早盘开盘二年国债主力指数，五年国债主力指数出现震荡走高 的走势，日 K 线收阳线，十年国债主力指数收出假阳线，三十国债主力指数出现低开 震荡走高的走势，日 K 线收出假阳十字线并留向下跳空缺口，需要重点关注下一交易 日是否延续高位震荡的走势行情。 一、国债期货表格： | | 指标 | 上日 | 本日 | 涨跌幅 | | 备注 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | 二年国债主力 | 102.672 | 102.702 | +0.03% | 4 | 月10 | 日收盘 | | | 五年国债主力 | 106.435 | 106.500 | +0.07% | 4 | 月10 | ...

不锈钢价格比较弱势，现货价格下跌，品种沉淀资金和成交量都不断下滑，市场交 投氛围冷清，避险情绪较强。截至 4 月 10 日，各地 304 不锈钢现货价格较上一日下跌 100-150 元每吨。社会库存和仓单数量虽高位回落，但依旧处于高位。供应方面，4 月 国内 43 家不锈钢厂粗钢预计排产 348.45 万吨，月环比增加 0.45%，同比增加 8.18%; 其中 300 系 190.75 万吨，环比持平，同比增加 13.3%。原料方面，沪镍价格连续四日 上涨，有力支撑不锈钢价格，铬矿现货资源紧张，矿商挺价力度不减。需求端，家电消 费对不锈钢需求有一定带动作用，出口订单恢复情况较好，但整体采购氛围偏弱。关税 博弈反复，宏观情绪短期有所缓和，盘面震荡运行，但现货市场代理大多下调价格，下 游及终端观望心态延续，现货整体出货承压。 撰写品种：不锈钢 撰写时间：2025-4-11 回顾周期：日度 研究所：戴小红 咨询证号（Z0000213） 不锈钢日度报告 品种名称：不锈钢 截止 4 月 10 日收市，不锈钢主力合约 SS2505 合约开盘价 12600，最高 12795 点， 最低 12445 点，收于 12675 点 ...

撰写品种：棕榈油 撰写时间 2025.4.10 回顾周期：日度 研究员：漆建华 咨询证号（Z0017731） 棕榈油日报 图 3：全国各港口棕榈油报价 图 4:进口成本及现货均价 图 5：豆油棕榈油现货价差 图 6:棕榈油现货期货基差 一、行情回顾 4 月 9 日，原油及竞争油脂下跌，拖累 BMD 马棕油走弱，报收 4146 林吉特/ 吨，较结算价跌 0.98%，处 2 个半月来低位；连棕 P2505 报收 8588 元/吨，较结算 价跌 1.9%；成交增至 85.04 万手，持仓再降至 23.1 万手。棕榈油移仓换月中， P2509 合约报收 7978 元/吨，较结算价跌 2.42%，成交 41.29 万手，增仓至 25.93 万手，05-09 价差 610 元/吨，豆棕主力 05 期价差-978 元/吨，菜棕主力 05 期价差 617 元/吨。 图1：马棕油、连棕油期货主力走势 图2：国内三大油脂期货指数 图片来源：博易大师、WIND 4 月 9 日，各港口棕榈油现货报 9050-9200 元/吨，较前一日价格整体跌 130 元 /吨；进口利润-905.3 元/吨，基差降至-127.67 元/吨；豆棕现货 ...

撰写品种：不锈钢 撰写时间：2025-4-10 回顾周期：日度 研究所：戴小红 咨询证号（Z0000213） 不锈钢日度报告 品种名称：不锈钢 截止 4 月 9 日收市，不锈钢主力合约 SS2505 合约开盘价 12760，最高 12810 点， 最低 12635 点，收于 12655 点、当日下跌 120 点，跌幅 0.94%，振幅 1.36%。主力合约 成交减少 35634 手至 15.2 万手，持仓量减少 5573 手至 66977 手，资金流出 7923 万， 沉淀资金 8.48 亿。上期所不锈钢仓单录得 199970 吨，较上一日减少 4937 吨。持仓排 名前 20 席期商持仓，多单总计 45602 手，较上日减少 1475 手，空单总计 51613 手， 较上日减少 3261 手。基差为 780 元/吨，较上日走缩 73 元/吨。 一、 影响行情的主要因素 美国对中国及其他国家加征关税，中方宣布反制措施，这引发了市场对全球经济衰 退的担忧。关税加征使得我国不锈钢及制品出口面临冲击，外需由增转降，相关配套行 业出口需求回落压力凸显，进一步影响了市场对不锈钢的需求预期。同时，投资者避险 情绪升温，资 ...

撰写品种：棕榈油 撰写时间 2025.4.9 回顾周期：日度 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 研究员：漆建华 咨询证号（Z0017731） 棕榈油日报 一、行情回顾 4 月 9 日，BMD 马棕油低位震荡，报收 4187 林吉特/吨，较结算价涨 0.12%， 处 2 个半月来低位；连棕 P2505 报收 8758 元/吨，较结算价跌 0.48%；成交 76.79 万手，持仓连续第四日减少，为 25.75 万手。棕榈油即将换月，P2509 合约报收 8156 元/吨，较结算价跌 0.78%，增仓至 23.25 万手，05-09 价差 600 元/吨，豆棕 主力 05 期价差-1104 元/吨，菜棕主力 05 期价差 590 元/吨。 图1：马棕油、连棕油期货主力走势 图2：国内三大油脂期货指数 图片来源：博易大师、WIND 4 月 8 日，各港口棕榈油现货报 9180-9330 元/吨，较前一日价格整体跌 150 元 /吨；进口利润-709.17 元/吨，基差降至-127.67 元/吨；豆棕现货价差-1293.59 元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to the Sino - US tariff conflict having a significant impact on the market, and under the stimulation of news, the current market sentiment is weak. The futures price of palm oil may show a weak bottom - oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On April 7, affected by the intensification of tariff conflicts, BMD Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,182 ringgit/ton, down 3.4%, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low. The continuous palm P2505 contract gapped down on the first trading day after the holiday, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, down 5.39% from the settlement price, with a trading volume of 911,100 lots and an open interest of 291,100 lots. The P2509 contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 596 yuan/ton, the soybean - palm main contract spread was - 1,088 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm main contract spread was 509 yuan/ton [3]. - On April 7, the spot prices of palm oil at various ports were 9,330 - 9,480 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The import profit was - 743.12 yuan/ton, the basis weakened to - 11 yuan/ton, and the soybean - palm spot spread was - 1,360.26 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Market survey data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in March was 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from February, and the inventory may increase to 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February. Attention should be paid to the March supply - demand data released by MPOB this Wednesday. According to SPPOMA data, due to the reduction of labor during the Eid al - Fitr, the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first five days of April decreased by 35.47% month - on - month. Recently, the US tariff system has intensified, imposing an additional 24% and 32% tariffs on palm oil products from Malaysia and Indonesia respectively on the basis of 10%. Since the US imports less palm oil, this move may lead to more domestic soybean oil consumption. After the Ramadan in the production areas, palm oil enters the actual production - increasing period, and the inventory may gradually accumulate. Considering the recent decline in crude oil dragging down the biodiesel blending policy, the palm oil price is under pressure [9]. - According to Mysteel data, as of April 4, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.9216 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.22% (63,900 tons), among which the palm oil inventory was 373,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.27% (4,700 tons). The domestic palm oil has a rigid demand for transactions, with a low inventory, and there is a need for replenishment in the later period [9]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - Currently, domestic palm oil is mainly for rigid procurement. In the short - term, the Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market. The price of the P2505 contract on the futures market gapped down, breaking below the 60 - day moving average, showing a weak price trend. In the short - term, under the stimulation of news, the current market sentiment is weak, and the futures price of palm oil may show a weak bottom - oscillating trend [11].