Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 28, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of caustic soda futures changed to the 2509 contract, with a slight decline in the price center. As the May Day holiday approaches, the average capacity utilization and inventory of national caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above continue to decline. The overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The market is expected to remain weak. [3] Summary by Section I. Market Review - **Price**: As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,439 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.93%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly output of caustic soda decreased by 11,500 tons to 820,200 tons, and the weekly output of flake caustic soda decreased by 300 tons to 100,600 tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 60,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will decrease next week. [4] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 408,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest regions increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month. [4] - **Cost**: The price of raw salt remained stable. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 235 yuan/ton, the price of well - mine salt in Central China was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest was 240 yuan/ton. [5] - **Profit**: The weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased this week, and the price of liquid chlorine remained weakly stable, resulting in an increase in the overall chlor - alkali profit. [5] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 79.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%. The spot price of alumina remained stable this week, with a slight increase in some areas. As of April 25, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,890 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 77.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. [5] - **Export**: The export quotation of liquid caustic soda decreased. This week, the export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China was FOB 400 - 410 US dollars/ton. [5] II. Illustrations - The report includes six figures, namely "Domestic Caustic Soda Operating Rate", "Domestic Sample Enterprises' Liquid Caustic Soda In - plant Inventory", "Domestic Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Capacity Utilization Rate", "Caustic Soda Main Contract Basis", "Spot Liquid Caustic Soda Price", and "Caustic Soda Main Continuous K - line (Daily)". [7][10][11][14][15]

撰写品种：PTA 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 PTA 周度报告 一、博弈情绪消退，市场波动下降 海外关税情绪影响逐渐消退，博弈方向由情绪博弈转向未来基本面预期博弈，市场 对未来经济的担忧驱动美元指数快速下跌，美元指数重新选择震荡中枢。市场情绪消退 后，原油成交量有所收缩，行情波动率下降，暂时维持反弹震荡格局。TA 市场行情主 要受原油价格波动影响，原油价格企稳对 TA 支撑亦相对明显，市场悲观情绪得到一定 改善。当前海外关税仍然没有"尘埃落定"，市场衰退预期明显加强，潜在风险仍然存 在，需要更加注重风险防控并做好套期保值准备。 图1：原油主力合约日K 走势 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 关税目前对供需方面当前影响不大，TA 更多是受到市场情绪影响，市场回归交易 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 供需逻辑后，需求旺季周期现货偏强，多次期货价格调整过程中，现货仍然维持相对 强硬状态。现货偏强是 TA 期货良好的支撑，但预期偏弱仍然表示市场存在调整风 险。市 ...

撰写品种：玻璃 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 玻璃周度报告 一、行情回顾 上周玻璃期货市场呈现震荡偏弱走势，玻璃主力合约 FG2509 较上一周下降了 1 元 /吨，收盘价为 1121 元/吨；现货方面报价为 1245 元/吨，玻璃期现结构为期货贴水现 货。分合约看，近月合约 FG2505 周内下跌 1.38%，远月合约 FG2509 持仓量环比减少 10.7 万手，成交量达 652 万手。 二、供需关系方面 从供应端来看：全国浮法玻璃日产量为 15.78 万吨，环比下降 0.44%，同比减少 9.32%，产能利用率维持 79%左右。冷修产线增加，但沙河地区新点火一条产线，整体 产能波动较小。不同燃料类型利润分化明显，天然气和石油焦亏损，煤制气微利。低利 润下，企业冷修意愿增强，但复产计划延缓。 从需求端来看："金三银四"传统旺季进入尾声，南方梅雨季临近，沙河产销率均 值降至 70%。中下游以刚需采购为主，深加工订单天数 9.3 天，同比下降 17.7%。第一 季度房屋竣工面积同比下降 14.3%，新开工面积下降 24.4%，玻璃需求缺乏长 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The current core contradiction in the copper market lies in the game between "strong fundamental support" and "insufficient macro - driving force". In the short term, copper prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall under fundamental support, yet lack the power for continuous breakthrough. It is expected that the CU2506 contract will maintain range - bound trading [3] Group 3 Price - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper 2506 contract on April 21, 2025, was 77,290 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan or 1.71% from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 122,500 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,109 lots to 169,600 lots [3] Macro - The risk of economic stagflation in the US is rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is constrained by high inflation. Short - term liquidity easing is difficult to be the driving force for copper price increases [3] Inventory - On April 21, the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 52,791 tons, a decrease of 12,306 tons from the previous day, indicating an accelerated destocking of refined copper in China [3] Refined - scrap price spread - On April 21, the Mysteel refined - scrap price spread was 920 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan from the previous day, but still significantly lower than the reasonable spread. The low refined - scrap price spread continuously suppresses the substitution demand for scrap copper, supports refined copper consumption, and accelerates inventory destocking [3]

宏观方面，中美关税政策博弈进入关键阶段，美国对华汽车零部件关税豁免延期决 议悬而未决，市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧抑制风险偏好。国务院总理李强同日强调"以 更大力度扩大内需"，政策托底预期与外部冲击形成多空拉锯。 撰写品种：沪锌 撰写时间：2025/4/16 回顾周期：当日 研究员:曹柏泉 咨询证号(Z0019820) 库存方面，国内锌锭社会库存 8.89 万吨（截至 4 月 14 日），LME 库存 11.20 万吨 （截至 4 月 15 日），低库存支撑效应边际减弱。 沪锌日度报告 期货盘面，沪锌主力合约收盘价报 21,920 元/吨，单日跌幅 1.95%，成交额 225.10 亿元，成交量 20.33 万手，持仓量 12.66 万手，资金流出迹象明显。 总体来看，基本面变化不大，短期主要受关税政策影响，锌价或延续弱势震荡格局。 图1：沪锌期货加权价格走势 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Stainless Steel Daily Report - Writing Time: April 18, 2025 - Review Cycle: Daily - Researcher: Dai Xiaohong - Consulting License Number: Z0000213 [1] 1. Market Performance - As of the close on April 17, the opening price of the stainless steel main contract SS2506 was 12,845, reaching a high of 12,915 and a low of 12,810, closing at 12,845, up 25 points or 0.20% for the day, with an amplitude of 1.96%. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 16,448 lots to 136,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,069 lots to 133,000 lots. The capital outflow was 7.27 million yuan, and the settled capital was 1.196 billion yuan. - The stainless steel warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 182,752 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day. - Among the top 20 futures dealers in terms of open - interest ranking, the total long positions were 97,549 lots, an increase of 1,996 lots from the previous day, and the total short positions were 100,538 lots, an increase of 1,906 lots from the previous day. - The basis was 468 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] 2. Core Views - The continuous decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and the fall of high - carbon ferrochrome prices have weakened the cost support for stainless steel. - The Indonesian PNBP policy is set to be officially implemented on April 26, which may boost the cost support for stainless steel. However, the market has already anticipated and priced in this policy, so its short - term direct impact on prices is limited. - In April, stainless steel supply remains at a high level, while demand is in the off - season. Downstream buyers maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, with overall inquiries and transactions being average. Social inventory is digested slowly, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, putting pressure on prices. - Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies of various countries and the implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy. If the nickel - iron price rebounds after the policy is implemented, it will strongly support the stainless steel price [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: April 16, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - In the macro - aspect, the change in Trump's underlying demands for tariffs may be the reason for his fluctuating attitude, and there is an objective probability that China and the US will return to the negotiation table [3] - In the supply - demand aspect, on the supply side, due to new production capacity in 2025, the supply of lead concentrates is expected to increase by 1.5%, but low processing fees and a shortage of scrap batteries affect the supply volume; on the demand side, the replacement policy boosts the demand for electric bicycles and improves data center storage, but the penetration of lithium batteries continuously squeezes market share, and overall demand is still in the off - season and mainly for rigid needs [3] - In the technical aspect, from the hourly line, the market sentiment has declined, leading to continuous drops in futures prices; from the daily line, the futures price has fallen after breaking through a new resistance level; in the short term, the price may maintain a range - bound operation [3]

撰写品种：黄金 撰写时间：2025/04/16 回顾周期：当日 研究员： 王建超 咨询证号（Z0015736） 黄金日报：横盘结束强势上涨，美国再次发力关税战 一：盘面情况 周二 comex 黄金期货 06 主力合约高位强势横盘，开盘价 3226.1 美元/盎司，最高 3250.9 美元/盎司，最低 3225.5 美元/盎司，收盘 3246.8 美元/盎司，全天上涨 20.1 美元/盎司，涨幅 0.62%。 沪金期货 2506 主力合约周三大幅上涨，开盘价 763.94 元/克，最 高价 782.38 元/克，最低价 762.3 元/克，最终收盘在 781.6 元/克，全 天上涨 17.16 元/克，涨幅 2.24%。特朗普重新推动贸易战，引发风险资 产下跌，推动避险资产黄金大涨。 二： 基本面 周二美国财长曾拟定一个关税"终局方案"，暂停对其他国家征收关 税，把精力放在对付中国身上，建立一个以美方为主的阵营，然后来和中 国接触。这实际上升级了中美之间的贸易战。 特朗普在与中国进行关税战的谈判诉求方面有最新进展：他想和中 国谈关税，并自行创设条件呼吁中国进行谈判。根据彭博社的报告，针对 美国希望中国能参与进来 ...

撰写品种：沪锌 撰写时间：2025/4/15 回顾周期：当日 研究员：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪锌日度报告 价格方面，当日沪锌各合约普遍承压，近月合约 ZN2504 收于 22,800 元/吨，跌 幅 0.48%，ZN2505 合约跌 0.73%至 22,545 元/吨，远月合约 ZN2603 则下跌 0.41% 至 21,870 元/吨。 供应端，锌矿加工费（TC）持续上涨，进口矿到港量增加推动港口库存维持在 30 万吨以上。国内锌矿复产进度符合预期，3 月精锌产量环比增长 13.7%，4 月预计维持 高位。冶炼端利润继续修复，前期检修企业已基本复产，供应宽松预期强化。 需求端，初级加工行业订单稳健，但终端采购偏谨慎。 库存方面，截至 4 月 15 日，SHFE 锌注册仓单 7,658 吨，较前一周下降 6.84%。 总体来看，短期沪锌或维持区间震荡为主，关注美国对华关税政策落地时点及国内 稳增长政策力度。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 图1：沪锌期货加权价格走势 图片来源：文华财经行情软件 风险揭示及 ...

撰写品种：沪铅 撰写时间 2025/04/14 回顾周期：周度 研究分析师：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铅周度报告 一．宏观面 1. 海外方面：美联储主席鲍威尔发言关税对经济影响远超预期，可能使得通胀上升和增 长减缓，2025 年降息两次预期得到维持。3 月会议纪要和多位美联储官员讲话，表示对于经 济前景怀有谨慎的态度。其次 3 月全球制造业 PMI 下降到 49.6%，表示着制造业复苏仍然乏 力。 三．技术面 小时线来看，期价阶梯抬升。日线来看，期价出现探底回升，今天出现十字阴 线，但低高位出现抬升。周线回落到前期低点得到支撑。月线仍处于 60 均线上方， 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 向上趋势没变。 四．后市展望 2. 国内方面：1-2 月规模以上工业增加值同比上升。中央汇金继续增持 ETF，稳定市场信 心。 二．基本面 1. 供应端：电解铅炼厂货源紧张，部分挺价意愿强烈；再生铅市场复产不及预期，废电 瓶回收量减少，再生铅增量受限。河南，安徽等炼厂原料货量紧张，部分炼厂受环保和运输受 限制，供应进一步减 ...