晨报 煤焦 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡季压力向原材料端的传导。焦煤主力合约价格迫近震荡区间 下限，考验下方支撑。 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 20 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价延续震荡下行走势，贴水现货运行，弱交割逻辑 拖累近月价格。现货市场总体弱稳，主产地主焦煤价格回调 40-50 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，本周山西吕梁多座煤矿继续恢复到满产状态，原煤产 量回升明显，陕西延安子长当地交通恢复，涉及煤矿恢复生产，抬升整体 产量数据回升。本周精煤日均产量 75.8 万吨，环比前一周微增 0.1 万吨， 同比下降 3.8 万吨。进口端，上周（11.10-11.15）甘其毛都口岸蒙煤日 均通关量 17.45 万吨，较前一周下降 ...

从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 铁矿石： 价格延续反弹 建议区间操作 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铁矿石 重要声明： 成文时间： 逻辑：昨日铁矿石延续反弹，但仅铁矿石自身走强，板块无法共振，且碳元素出现显著 下挫，主要原因一方面是螺纹供需关系以及库存数据边际改善，另一方面国内华北地区环保 限产影响减弱下铁水产量回升，叠加当前铁矿石基差处于相对高位，整体看，铁矿石并不存 在独立走强基础，不建议追涨操作。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比持续回升，其中澳洲、巴西均回升显著，但到港量环比大 幅回落。从季节性规律以及今年主流矿山发运目标来看，外矿供 ...

晨报 成材 经历过周一的冲高后，昨日成材小幅回落。上周公布的周度数据中性， 本周多地气温进一步转冷，下游需求延续弱势。螺纹钢在 3000 一线有支 撑。钢价在窄区间内盘整。 观点：回调运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 成材：需求偏弱 钢价盘整 逻辑：国务院总理李强在上合组织会议上表示，高额关税等经贸壁垒 增多使国际经贸秩序受到严重冲击，呼吁各方拥抱自由贸易、减少壁垒。 国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 10 月份，中国钢筋产量为 1434.0 万 吨，同比下降 18.6%；1-10 月累计产量为 15801.0 万吨，同比下降 2.0%。 海关总署数据显示，10 月中国出口钢铁板材 597 万吨，同比下降 22.6%； 1-10 月累计出口 6045 万吨，同比下降 3.5%。11 月 18 日，76 家独立电弧 炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3332 元/吨，日环比持平，平均利润亏损 121 元/吨，谷电利润亏损 15 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [2][4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term high - level adjustments, considering the increasing inventory pressure and the complex macro - situation [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US in mid - October reached a two - month high. The market is waiting for the Fed's October 28 - 29 meeting minutes and the US Department of Labor's September employment report [3]. - In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a 13.29% decrease from the previous period but a 12.5% increase year - on - year [4]. - The alumina market has a continuous oversupply situation. Although the decline of spot prices has slowed down, it has not stopped. Industry profits are shrinking, forcing some high - cost enterprises in Shanxi and Henan to reduce production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons. However, the alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants and in the social sector is still accumulating, reaching 4.793 million tons [4]. - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are transitioning from the peak to the off - season, and the high aluminum price has pressured downstream processing fees, leading some processing enterprises to cut production and some aluminum - water suppliers to increase ingot casting [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM predicts that the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry will show a differentiated trend in the short term, with power grid orders supporting a slight increase in aluminum cables, while aluminum plates, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [4]. - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [4]. - The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas aluminum supply due to the reported production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season and weakening downstream demand, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to have short - term回调 space [5].

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 19 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡下行，焦煤近月合约跌幅超 4.0%，夜盘延 续弱势，贴水现货运行，弱交割逻辑拖累近月价格。现货市场总体弱稳， 个别煤种价格回调。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：市场情绪偏弱 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, iron ore has rebounded from its bottom. The main reasons are the marginal improvement in the supply - demand relationship and inventory data of rebar, the recovery of hot metal production due to the weakening impact of environmental protection restrictions in North China, and the relatively high basis of iron ore, which provides a basis for price rebound [3] - In the short - term, there is a lack of macro - drivers. The peak of foreign ore supply has passed, and the shipping volume and arrival volume are expected to decline gradually. On the demand side, the hot metal production fluctuates in the short - term but will show a downward trend this year. The inventory will tend to accumulate, but the inventory level at the steel mill is low, and the basis rate and internal - external price difference are large. The current price is expected to be at a neutral position and will mainly fluctuate within a range [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipping volume of foreign ores has been increasing continuously on a week - on - week basis, with significant increases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has dropped significantly on a week - on - week basis. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, the peak of foreign ore supply may have passed, and the supply pressure may decline on a week - on - week basis later [3] Demand - Domestic demand has increased on a week - on - week basis. After the lifting of production restrictions in Hebei, it has returned to full production. In this period, 7 blast furnaces were newly overhauled and 5 were restarted. Blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, etc. due to weak demand and losses; blast furnace restarts mainly occurred in Southwest, Northeast, Hebei, and Henan. The blast furnace in Southwest restarted after a long - term shutdown and is expected to be shut down for maintenance by the end of the year, while other regions restarted after the end of scheduled overhauls. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability have been continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. With steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures is in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3] Strategy - Adopt range - bound operations and sell call options [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly rebounded; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still running within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to the Directory - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, and there was a sharp decline at night. The decline of the near - month coking coal contract exceeded 3.5%, and it traded at a discount to the spot, with the weak delivery logic dragging down the near - month price. The coking coal spot market stabilized, and coke completed the fourth round of price increase [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side**: Last week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Although most coal mines have little inventory pressure, the raw coal inventory of coal mines has stopped falling and started to rise, and it will be a bit difficult for coal prices to rise later. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.3 tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to November 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 tons, a decrease of 2.07 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a relatively high level overall, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side**: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. Recently, the phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted, which promoted the recovery of hot metal production. The daily average hot metal production last week recovered to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. Later, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and the changes in the production rhythm of steel mills [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with the price facing pressure when rising due to downstream differentiation in the off - season [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a relatively strong performance. The US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks, and the longest - running government shutdown in US history ended on Thursday, resulting in a lack of key economic data for policy - making [2] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. Overseas, the resumption of production in Guinea's mines is difficult, and there is an expectation of supply tightening due to the approaching heating season in the north [3] - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term [3] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to Monday and 1,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The premium of the US spot aluminum price has reached a record high [3] - There is a strong positive macro - atmosphere, and the expected tightening of overseas supply gives funds the motivation to go long. However, the off - season is coming, and the downstream is weakening, with increased inventory pressure [4]

煤焦：焦价提涨陆续落地 盘面震荡运行 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比前一周增加 1.9 万吨，同比下降 3.3 万吨。进口端，上周 （11.10-11.15）甘其毛都口岸蒙煤日均通关量 17.45 万吨，较前一周下 降 2.07 万吨，总体仍保持相对高位，口岸监管区呈现增库趋势。需求端， 钢厂利润延续收缩趋势，盈利率降至 40%以下，近期唐山地区阶段性限产 政策解除，促使铁水产量回升，上周日均铁水产量回升至 236.88 万吨，较 前一周增加 2.66 万吨，后期关注钢厂盈利情况及钢厂生产节奏变化。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡 ...