Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of building materials is moving downward with a weak trend, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2][3][4] - The price of lithium carbonate is running at a high level. It is necessary to avoid the risk of chasing up and focus on the marginal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the implementation of macro policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the slope of sample inventory reduction, and capital and sentiment [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect the total production of construction steel by 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui are expected to affect the daily output by about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [4] - Building materials continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down, and winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [4] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate opened low and closed high at 123,520 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 9.25 million lots and positions decreasing to 6.07 million lots. The long - short ratio continued to rise, the net short position of the main force continued, and registered warrants increased [3] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon continued to rise to 104,900 yuan/ton, with the basis of the main contract at - 18,620 yuan/ton. The futures' expectation of future prices was significantly higher than the spot, and capital sentiment drove the futures price to deviate from the fundamentals [3] - In terms of market transactions, most upstream lithium salt plants focused on long - term contracts with few spot orders; downstream material plants were waiting and watching at high prices, mainly for rigid demand procurement and long - term contract supply; and traders' transactions were light [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the raw material price rose last week, strengthening the cost support. This week, the total weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% month - on - month, with the supply steadily increasing but the growth rate slowing down [4] - In terms of demand, short - term demand decreased slightly while long - term resilience remained. Last week, the output of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline; the output of power cells decreased slightly month - on - month but increased by 30.34% year - on - year; new energy vehicle sales showed significant short - term fluctuations, with the penetration rate remaining stable month - on - month and increasing significantly year - on - year [4] - In terms of inventory, this week, the total weekly inventory of SMM samples decreased by 0.59% month - on - month and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, continuing to decline but with a slower slope. The inventory in other links increased by 2.32% month - on - month and 41.61% year - on - year. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% month - on - month and 27.30% year - on - year, and the inventory days in other links increased by 2.48% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. Inventory shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Last week, the social inventory in four places showed a phased increase, with a year - on - year decrease of 54.71%. The overall inventory in the industry remained tight [4] - Policy - wise, regulatory tightening is clear. Measures such as trading limits on GZFE and the promotion of the elimination of backward production capacity in 2025 will intensify market fluctuations in the short term. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits. Coupled with energy storage being listed as a key area in the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the continuation of the subsidy policy for replacing old new energy vehicles, they support the long - term supply - demand pattern. Market sentiment forms a "expectation - price - sentiment" cycle, and attention should be paid to the risk of insufficient downstream acceptance and over - bought correction. Although market sentiment is relatively strong, its vulnerability still exists [5]

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工深入淡季 宏观支撑价格高位 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent market sentiment has slightly improved, and prices are experiencing a periodic rebound, but the fundamentals remain weak and lack support for the price rebound [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures opened high and closed low, ending the session with a decline, and continued the weak and volatile trend at night with relatively sharp price fluctuations. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained stable for the time being. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [3] Supply - This week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coking enterprises began to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak. The long - term agreement of large mines had low cost - effectiveness, and downstream buyers were inactive. Mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 4.2 tons and 10.1 tons respectively [3] Demand - Demand improved slightly this week. The molten iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 2.2658 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons, and it is expected to maintain this level in the short term [3] Import - Customs data showed that China's coking coal imports have generally remained at a relatively high level in recent months. In November, imports were 1.07315 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November, cumulative imports were 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, imports of Mongolian coking coal were 624,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data showed that Mongolian coal clearance remained high in December, and the inventory in the port supervision area mainly increased. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed for one day on December 29 (next Monday) for Mongolia's National Liberation and Independence Day and will resume clearance on December 30; on January 1 (next Thursday), the three major ports will be closed for New Year's Day and will resume clearance on January 2 [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term with an oscillatory pattern, paying attention to the upper pressure [1][4] - The finished steel market is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state, and the aluminum market is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations, focusing on macro - guidance [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Different Product Sections Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center has been continuously moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little support for prices [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, both domestic and international sentiment is positive, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to aluminum prices and the non - ferrous metal sector [2] - The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with weak spot prices and cautious market sentiment. After the resumption of production in some enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi, the production capacity has recovered, but the recovery in Henan is limited due to environmental protection. The weekly output increased by only 0.5 million tons, and the inventory increased by 0.5 million tons [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%. The operating rates of different sub - industries vary: the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 60%; the aluminum plate and strip industry remained at 65.0% but was under pressure; the aluminum cable industry decreased slightly by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 600,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday. In late December, the supply pressure of aluminum ingots increased, and the demand was affected by environmental protection control and high prices, with the inventory expected to increase slightly [3]

晨报 成材 成材：关注周度基本面变化 震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：北京市进一步优化调整住房限购政策：放宽非京籍家庭购房条 件，购买五环内商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限由"3 年"调减为"2 年"， 五环外由"2 年"调减为"1 年"；多子女家庭五环内可多购买 1 套房； 商贷利率不再区分首套房和二套房，二套房公积金贷款最低首付比例下调 至 25%。中钢协数据显示，12 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 184.5 万吨， 环比下降 1.3%；钢材库存量 1601 万吨，环比上一旬增长 8.6%，比上月同 旬增长 2.6%。本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 3041 元/吨， 周环比下调 14 元/吨，与 12 月 24 日普方坯出厂价格 2950 元/吨相比，钢 厂平均亏损 91 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 原材料：程 鹏 成材昨日震荡运行，波幅不大，市场矛盾不突出。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [3][4]. - **碳酸锂**: The main contract of lithium carbonate is in a high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid the risk of chasing up. Focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **成材** - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3]. - **New House Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3][4]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment. The price has reached a new low, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. - **View and Attention Points**: The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. **碳酸锂** - **Futures Market**: Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with trading volume increasing to 949,000 lots and positions decreasing to 647,400 lots. The long - short ratio continued to rise, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The registered warehouse receipts increased. The basis of the main contract was - 23,220 yuan/ton (a near - one - year low), and the futures price deviated significantly from the fundamentals due to capital speculation [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of electric carbon was 101,500 yuan/ton and continued to rise. Upstream lithium salt factories mainly focused on long - term contracts with few spot orders; downstream material factories were on the sidelines at high prices, mainly for rigid demand procurement and long - term contract supply; traders had light transactions [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, raw material prices rose, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate both increased by 0.21% week - on - week, with a steady supply release but a slowdown in growth. On the demand side, short - term demand decreased slightly while long - term resilience remained unchanged. The production of ternary and iron - lithium decreased week - on - week, and inventory continued to decline. The production of power cells decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 30.34% year - on - year. New energy vehicle sales fluctuated significantly in the short term, with a stable month - on - month penetration rate and a high year - on - year increase [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, continuing to decline but at a slower pace. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. There was a phased inventory build - up in other links, and inventory shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Social inventory showed a phased build - up, with a year - on - year decrease of 54.71%. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4]. - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: Regulatory tightening is clear. Measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the promotion of the exit of backward production capacity in 2025 will intensify market fluctuations in the short term. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive, providing support for the long - term supply - demand pattern. The market sentiment forms a "expectation - price - sentiment" cycle, and risks such as insufficient downstream acceptance and over - bought pullbacks need to be vigilant [5]. - **View and Attention Points**: The view is high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid chasing up. Focus on marginal changes in supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the slope of sample inventory decline, and capital and sentiment [5].

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：煤矿年底减量 盘面延续震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：近期市场情绪稍有回暖，价格迎阶段性反弹，但基本面表现仍 偏弱势，缺少对价格反弹的支撑。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 25 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格震荡运行，夜盘高开低走，价格波动较为剧 烈。现货方面，山西地区优质主焦煤价暂稳运行；焦炭端，钢厂完成对焦 价的第三轮提降，价格跌后下游或有补库原料动作。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 本周煤矿存在月底减量动作，焦企开始适 ...

Report Summary of Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved. However, the decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations, and the supply side is generally stable with a slight increase. It is expected that the port inventory will tend to accumulate overall. In the short term, the market trading focus has shifted to the reality, and the upside potential of prices is limited. However, restocking demand may support prices, and the market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Among them, the shipment from Australia has declined slightly, and the shipment from Brazil has remained basically stable. According to seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, major mines will have a phased rush at the end of the year, and the weekly shipment volume will increase month - on - month. In terms of the arrival volume, it remains at a moderately high level in the short term and is higher than the same period last year, and the support from the supply side is weak [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has continued to decline rapidly, and the weakening of demand has exceeded expectations. Based on the current production reduction efforts and restart plans, the molten iron volume may be close to the lowest level. The main reasons are the combined effects of environmental protection restrictions and annual maintenance. The daily average molten iron this period is 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared to the previous period, and the absolute level of molten iron continues to be lower than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a low level. The steel mill inventory this period has decreased compared to the previous period and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. High prices have suppressed the willingness to restock. Currently, the restocking actions of steel mills are weak. Later, attention will be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will be fully launched. Port inventory has continued to accumulate, mainly because the arrival volume has remained at a relatively high level. It is expected that the port inventory will still tend to accumulate in December [3]. Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore is in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Strategy - Operate within a range and use covered call options [4].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期高位震荡，需关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材市场 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修，预计影响总产量74.1万吨；安徽省部分钢厂停产，日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] - 成材价格震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格重心下移 [4] 铝市场 - 宏观上市场已消化2026年美联储两次降息预期，沪铝高位运行 [3] - 氧化铝市场供需偏松，现货价格弱势，期货反弹但原料端制约矿价，预计海内外矿价有下行压力 [4] - 贵州、广西部分企业产能恢复，河南受限，周产量环比小增0.5万吨，企业库存微增0.5万吨 [4] - 国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比下降0.3个百分点至61.5%，各细分行业开工率有不同表现 [4] - 12月22日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存60万吨，较上周一上涨0.4万吨，12月下旬预计库存稳中小增 [4]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to run in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range, with investors being warned of capital and sentiment fluctuations and focusing on marginal supply and demand [2][4][5]. Summary by Category Finished Product - **Logic**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little price support [3][4]. - **Viewpoint**: The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Logic**: The futures price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 120,360 yuan/ton yesterday, with trading volume decreasing by 27.5% to 730,000 lots and open interest slightly decreasing to 671,500 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the long - short ratio increased. The basis of the main contract was - 20,860 yuan/ton, at a near - one - year low. The futures market's expectation of future prices is significantly higher than that of the spot market. On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon is 99,500 yuan/ton, and the price continues to rise. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, downstream material plants are cautious about high prices, and trading among traders is light. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing but at a slower pace, short - term demand has slightly decreased, and long - term demand remains resilient. The inventory is in a state of destocking, but the slope has slowed down, and the overall inventory in the industry is still tight. Policy - wise, regulatory tightening is clear, and the industry is promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference's deployments provide long - term support. The market sentiment is transitioning from "expectation - driven" to "fundamental verification" [3][4][5]. - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range. Investors should be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations and focus on marginal supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience, sample inventory destocking slope, and capital and sentiment [5].