晨报 成材 成材：基本面正常 钢价整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量上升 5.66 万吨至 217.84 万吨， 热卷产量上升 1.79 万吨至 327.24 万吨，五大次总产量上升 12.48 万吨至 880.99 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 2.07 万吨至 549 万吨，热卷总库存上升 0.99 万吨至 341.16 万吨，五大材总库存上升 1.14 万吨至 1340.03 万吨； 螺纹钢表观需求量上升 0.72 万吨至 219.91 万吨，热卷表观需求量下降 4.44 万吨至 326.25 万吨，五大材总表观需求量下降 4.33 万吨至 879.8 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: Recently, coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent. The upstream coal mines have seen an inventory inflection point, and coking coal may continue to show a volatile and upward trend in the short term [2][3] Group 3 - Coal and coke market situation: Yesterday, coking coal futures prices showed a volatile rebound trend and continued at night. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price cut dynamic for the time being [3] - Production data: This week, the daily output of raw coal in coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 35,000 tons [3] - Mine production changes: This week, 11 coal mines such as Jining and Huaning stopped production, involving a production capacity of 14.45 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 45,800 tons; 1 coal mine resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.5 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 4,000 tons [3] - Regional production reduction: This week, coal mines in Changzhi and Linfen, Shanxi, reduced production and stopped production due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, environmental inspections continued, and surrounding open-pit coal mines voluntarily stopped production [3] - Demand situation: This week, steel mills maintained a high operating rate, and the rigid demand for raw materials was good. The combination of coal mine production cuts and strong demand led to a downward inflection point in the inventory of upstream coal mines [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views -成材震荡整理运行 关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价短期预计区间震荡 需关注宏观情绪和下游开工 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1成材情况 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨 安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日 10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3% 同比增43.2% [4] -成材供需双弱 市场情绪悲观 价格重心下移 冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2铝锭情况 3.2.1宏观因素 -地缘政治局势紧张缓解 市场预期美联储今年降息更多致美元走弱 但美联储内部分歧大需关注后续表态 [3] -海外宏观不稳定存在 低库存和铝水比例走高预期支撑铝价 但库存走势反复 几内亚雨季影响矿石价格 需求端淡季压力限制上行空间 [5] 3.2.2国内基本面 -6月20日数据显示 国内港口铝土矿周度到港总量较前一周减3.8万吨 几内亚主要港口铝土矿周度出港总量较前一周减101.08万吨 6月下旬几内亚雨季影响预计逐步体现 [4] -6月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓厚 周度开工环比降0.6个百分点至59.8% [4] -6月23日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存较上周一下降0.6万吨 去库幅度减弱 低库存有支撑 现货升贴水回落 铝水比例维持高位 市场铸锭量偏紧 个别铝厂铸锭量本周稍有增加但难改格局 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Core Viewpoints - The short - term domestic macro expectations have increased, the market may trade the strong reality, the demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak, and the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series fluctuated narrowly, the finished product end was relatively weak, and the demand continued the off - season characteristics. The supply of iron ore showed a seasonal increase, but the carbon element gave way to the iron element, the blast furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand was at a relatively high level, supporting the price. Since June, the basis of iron ore has returned from the spot to the futures, the spot price has dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures price has been relatively stable [2] Supply - This week, the overseas ore shipments increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the arrivals also increased significantly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that the shipments will continue to increase steadily, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly, with the support of the supply side weakening marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the delivery of non - mainstream mines [2] Demand - The domestic molten iron production ended five weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current steel mill profitability rate is high, the blast furnace profit is considerable, the short - process is in deep loss, and the iron - scrap difference has widened significantly. It is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be strong, and the high demand will support the price [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. The port inventory has decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly later, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3]

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：煤产量小幅下滑 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 此外，内蒙古乌海地区环保检查力度不减，叠加当前市场态势依旧偏 弱，周边露天煤矿均自发性停产，据 Mysteel 不完全统计，目前在产露天 煤矿产能 960 万吨，约占乌海及棋盘井露天煤矿总产能 34%。 观点：近期煤矿减产叠加进口缩量，一定程度上缓解供应过剩压力， 上游煤矿累库速度放缓，短期煤焦或延续震荡走势。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：边缘政治因素消除 大宗商品价格回落 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑： 昨日边缘政治因素消除，油气及产业链商品大幅下挫带动黑色系价格走弱，铁矿石 价格跟随运行。近期成材端需求延续淡季特征，但并未出现累库，整体表现强于预期。铁矿石 供给端保持季节性增量特征，但碳元素不断让利于铁元素，高炉利润水平相对可观，国内铁矿 石需求保持相对高位水平，对铁矿石价格形成一定支撑。6 月份以来铁矿石基差由现货向期货 回归，现货端价格较 5 月底出现大幅下滑，而盘面相对平稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面震荡运行 关注煤矿复产 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 25 日 逻辑：昨日，地缘政治冲突出现缓和迹象，能源类相关商品价格下跌， 带动煤焦期货价格震荡回落。现货端，焦炭第 4 轮提降已陆续落地，暂未 有进一步提降动态。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 市场方面，近日受安全因素影响，长治地区部分煤矿收到通知停产自 查，据悉停产时限在 3 天左右，其中沁源地区煤矿已经收到停产通知，涉 及核定产能 2230 万吨，按最新调研口径影响原煤日均产量 8.22 万吨，影 响煤种为瘦煤和瘦主焦煤，阶段性来看供应有所收紧，但长期影响有限。 数据方面，上周煤矿端精煤库存 499 万吨，周环比增加 13 万吨，同比增 加 213 万吨；原煤库存 701 万吨，周环比增加 16.5 万吨，同比增加 370 万吨，库存水平仍处于绝对高位。下游钢厂开工较为稳定，铁水产量维持 2 ...

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间调整。鲍威尔在美国国会作证时表示，他和许多官 员都预计通胀将很快开始上升，美联储并不急于在此期间降低借贷成本， 但美元仍然下跌。以色列和伊朗停火缓解地缘风险，降低资 ...

晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间调整。美联储鲍曼表示，降息的时机可能很快就会 到来，因为她越来越担心就业市场的风险而不太担心关税会导致通胀问题。 联邦基金利率期货目前的定价是今年降息 58 个基点，这表明预计两次降息 25 个基点是肯定的，第三次降息的可能性也在上升。以伊冲突和美国内部 分歧对市场情绪影响持续，关注消息面短期对价格的干扰。 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term domestic macro - expectations have strengthened. The market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but with weak pressure. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - The equity and commodity markets were relatively strong yesterday. The market anticipated the easing of the Middle - East situation, and the sentiment improved. The black - series commodities rose collectively. The demand for finished products showed off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing better than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal increments, and the carbon element gave way to the iron element. The blast - furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand for iron ore remained relatively high, supporting the price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared to the end of May, while the futures price was relatively stable [3]. Supply - This week (Monday), the overseas ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia and Brazil reached the same - period high, and the arrival volume also increased significantly month - on - month. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Australian mines BHP and FMG are rushing to meet their fiscal - year targets. It is expected that the overseas ore shipments will continue to rise steadily. Due to the significant increase in shipments in late May, the actual domestic supply is expected to increase significantly, and the supporting strength of the supply side will weaken marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the investment in non - mainstream mines (Onslow project) [3]. Demand - The domestic molten iron output ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The average daily molten iron output this period was 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). Currently, the profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be resilient, and the high demand will support the price [3]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production at some steel mills. Steel mills mainly purchased on - demand due to the weak demand expectations. The port inventory decreased slightly this period due to the month - on - month decline in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly in the later period, but the pressure is weak due to the high demand [4]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is 695 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton, and the price range of the overseas FE07 contract is 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [5].