Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent high-level Mongolian coal customs clearance and domestic supply guarantee policies have impacted market sentiment. The weak delivery logic has dragged down near-month contracts, causing the futures price to trade at a discount to the spot price. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the oscillation range (1100 - 1300), testing the lower support [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Market Conditions - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline in an oscillatory manner, with coking coal leading the decline. The positions of the 01 contract were gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The futures price traded at a discount to the spot price, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near-month prices. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with coal prices in some regions adjusting downward. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices remained stable [2] Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, remaining at a relatively high level. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons, or 5.16% [2] - In October, 5.3653 million tons of Mongolian coking coal were imported, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September, mainly due to the port closure during the National Day holiday. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a relatively high level, and there are rumors in the market that the port will test 2000 trucks of customs clearance. Attention should be paid to the actual customs clearance volume [2] - In October, 1.0469 million tons of Australian coking coal were imported, with a significant month-on-month increase. The import volumes of Russian and Canadian coking coal in October decreased slightly compared with September [2] Domestic Production and Demand - The domestic clean coal production was generally stable. On the demand side, the profit of steel mills continued to shrink. Last week, the daily average pig iron output decreased to 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 48,000 tons compared with the same period last year. During the off-season demand period, the pig iron output tended to decline, and the demand for raw materials was under pressure [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Iron Ore - Short - term lack of macro - drive, terminal demand of steel shows unexpected rebound, and steel inventory pressure eases, but the increase in rebar production brings pressure to further inventory improvement. - Supply peak of foreign mines has passed, and shipment and arrival volume are expected to decline. Demand side shows short - term fluctuation in hot metal production, but it will decline throughout the year. Inventory will tend to accumulate, and the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore will operate in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline. Coking coal led the decline, and the position of the 01 contract gradually shifted to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - Currently, there is a lack of domestic macro - drive, and terminal demand is sluggish. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve effectively, with strong cost support. The supply of ferrosilicon has shrunk slightly, inventory has decreased significantly, and cost support is fair. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction and high inventory of alloys put pressure on prices, and alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the main futures contracts of various varieties on November 21, 2025, compared with November 14, 2025, showed different changes. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar increased by 0.13%, the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.43%, the I2601 contract of iron ore increased by 1.68%, the J2601 contract of coke decreased by 3.29%, the JM2601 contract of coking coal decreased by 7.47%, the SM2601 contract of ferromanganese decreased by 2.47%, and the SF2603 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.23% [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various varieties also changed. For example, the HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai increased by 0.94%, the Q235B hot - rolled coil in Shanghai increased by 0.31%, the PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 0.89%, the quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 3.27%, the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 0.70%, the FeMn65Si17 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.43%, and the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Iron Ore - **Logic**: The increase in finished steel apparent demand and continuous inventory reduction, slowdown in the decline of domestic demand, and the boost of market speculation sentiment by "rumors" support the price. Supply: overseas ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the supply peak may have passed. Demand: domestic demand decreased slightly, and blast furnace operating rate and profitability continued to decline. Inventory: steel mill inventory is low, and port inventory ended the 7 - week accumulation [12]. - **View**: Short - term range - bound. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore operates in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal leading the decline. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price [13]. - **View**: The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomic internal divergence in the Fed's meeting minutes, weak domestic terminal demand. Supply: production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises decreased. Demand: the weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased, but overall market sentiment is cautious. Inventory: silicon - manganese inventory increased, and silicon - iron inventory decreased. Cost: cost support for both is fair [14]. - **View**: Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes and downstream demand [14]. 3.3 Variety Data Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: This week, the total inventory was 15054.65 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 264.73 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased, while that of Brazilian ore increased. Port trade ore inventory decreased, and daily port clearance volume increased [18]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 52.50 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, daily consumption decreased slightly, and hot metal daily output decreased [29]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability**: This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 82.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate decreased slightly, and the profitability rate decreased [34]. Coal and Coke - **Coke Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 880.6 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 28.32 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises increased, that of 247 steel mills was basically unchanged, and that of 4 ports decreased [46]. - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2609.5 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.23 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased, that of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and that of 5 ports decreased [55]. - **Other Data**: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises increased, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the daily coke output decreased slightly. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased [64][65]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased week - on - week, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the silicon - iron spot price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [81]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the total port inventory was 426.3 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.9 million tons. The inventory in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port both decreased [88]. - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased [91][94][99]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21, the silicon - manganese inventory increased week - on - week, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased week - on - week. The average available days of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron inventory in November increased month - on - month [103][106]. - **Import/Production**: In October, the import of manganese ore increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron also increased month - on - month [109]. - **Steel Mill Purchase Price**: In November, the purchase price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - manganese remained unchanged month - on - month, and that for silicon - iron increased month - on - month [112].

晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位运行。宏观上市场目前押注美联储将在下个月再次 降息。周四推迟公布的美国非农就业报告对劳动力市场的描述喜忧参半， 几乎没有改变美联储在 12 月降息的预期，因为决策者们仍在美国政府停摆 带来的经济迷雾中犹豫不决。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The impact of the supply - guarantee policy on market sentiment is gradually reflected in the futures market, while the actual supply - demand change is limited. There is seasonal pressure on future demand. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the trading range (1100 - 1300), testing the support level below [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Performance**: Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, with coking coal leading the decline. The position of the 01 contract was gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with coal prices in some regions adjusting downwards. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices remained stable [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: In terms of supply, many coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang returned to full production, and coal mines in Shaanxi Yan'an Zichang resumed production, increasing the overall output. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 75.8 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. On the import side, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly but remained at a high level. There were rumors of a trial of 2000 - vehicle customs clearance. In terms of demand, steel mill profits continued to shrink, with the profitability rate falling below 40%. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous week but an increase of 0.48 million tons year - on - year. During the off - season, pig iron output tends to decline, putting pressure on raw material demand [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price of iron ore is in high - level oscillation, and range operation is recommended. Short - term macro - driving is lacking. Iron ore supply peaks have passed, and the supply and arrival volume are expected to decline. The demand will show a downward trend, and the inventory will tend to accumulate. It will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, iron ore maintained a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected finished product data and real - estate "interest subsidy" briefly stimulated the market. The macro - environment is still weak, terminal demand has entered the off - season, domestic iron ore demand has seasonally declined, and the basis has significantly shrunk recently. Iron ore has no independent strengthening basis [3] Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has been increasing continuously on a week - on - week basis, with significant recoveries in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has dropped significantly on a week - on - week basis. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, the peak of foreign ore supply may have passed, and the subsequent supply pressure may decline on a week - on - week basis [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined slightly on a week - on - week basis. The increase in the blast furnace utilization rate of some steel mills in Hebei has offset the reduction in production due to the annual maintenance of some steel mills in Henan, Xinjiang, Shanxi and other regions. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability have been continuously declining due to weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Coupled with steel mills gradually entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [4] Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a low level, and the subsequent restocking by steel mills is still one of the core factors supporting the price. The port inventory has ended the continuous accumulation trend for 7 weeks, mainly because the arrival volume has declined on a week - on - week basis, the berthing volume has increased, and the port clearance volume has continued to rise [4] Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore is in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [5] Strategy - Conduct range operation and sell call options [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The impact of the coal supply guarantee policy on market sentiment is gradually reflected in the futures market, with limited actual changes in supply and demand. There is seasonal pressure on demand in the later period. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the trading range (1100 - 1300), testing the support level below [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated weakly, leading the decline in the ferrous metal sector. The futures prices were at a discount to the spot prices, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the prices of near - term contracts. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with the price of main coking coal in the main producing areas falling by 40 - 50 yuan/ton [3] Supply Side - This week, several coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi, have resumed full - scale production, and the raw coal output has increased significantly. In Zichang, Yan'an, Shaanxi, local transportation has recovered, and the coal mines involved have resumed production, boosting the overall output. The daily average output of clean coal this week was 75.8 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 million tons, a decrease of 2.07 million tons from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, with the profitability rate dropping below 40%. The daily average pig iron output this week dropped to 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.48 million tons compared with the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and changes in their production rhythm in the later period [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke and Semi - finished Products**: The price of coke and semi - finished products is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The price center has shifted downward, and it is running weakly. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][3]. - **Aluminum Ingot**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The industry has entered the traditional off - season, with overall weak demand. The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke and Semi - finished Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance from mid - January are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Situation**: Coke and semi - finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with pessimistic sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingot - **Bauxite Supply**: During the environmental inspection period, the supply of domestic bauxite in the north remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment of imported bauxite has increased, providing support for future arrivals [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry have deepened. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern with a 59.8% operating rate; the aluminum cable has a slight increase in the operating rate to 62.4% due to grid orders. However, most sectors are under downward pressure, with the operating rates of aluminum sheet, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil showing different trends [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is influenced by a mix of long and short sentiments. There are still expectations of a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends. The price is expected to run at a high level, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and ore - end news [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The成材is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and its price is likely to continue to decline in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment [4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, one has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of成材continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the weak supply - demand pattern, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum - The alumina market has an oversupply situation, with a slowdown in the decline of spot prices but an unconfirmed bottom. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions have cut production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons [4]. - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and the total social inventory are high, and continuous inventory accumulation intensifies the supply - demand contradiction [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate to show a differentiated trend in the short term [4]. - On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [4]. - There are mixed macro - sentiments. The market still expects a tightening of overseas supply due to potential production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, the downstream is weak, and the inventory trend is volatile [5].

晨报 成材 成材：关注周度基本面变化 钢价低位整理 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 20 日 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 3091 元/吨，周环 比上调 8 元/吨，与 11 月 19 日普方坯出厂价格 2970 元/吨相比，钢厂平 均亏损 121 元/吨，周环比减少 32 元/吨。11 月 19 日，76 家独立电弧炉 建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3336 元/吨，日环比增加 4 元/吨，平均利润亏 损 117 元/吨，谷电利润亏损 12 元/吨。11 月 12 日-11 月 18 日，百年建 筑调研国内 506 家混凝土搅拌站产能利用率为 7.69%，周环比下降 0.10 个百分点；同比提升 0.65 个百分点。发运量为 153.97 万方，周环比减少 1.29%，同比增加 9.19%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成材昨日延续震荡回落，下 ...