1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - narrative is positive, the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, there is restocking demand for iron ore, and supply is entering the off - season, but the price increase is limited by industrial chain profits. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3] - The strategy is range operation and covered call options [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Macro - aspect - China's monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities, and the short - term domestic macro - narrative is positive. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage, and industrial chain prices maintain a narrow - fluctuation trend. There is a "seesaw" effect between the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and black - series sectors, and short - term market risk - preference changes need attention [1] Price Recovery Reasons for Black - series - The inventory pressure at the finished - product end has been continuously relieved, the industrial chain valuation has rebounded, the spot price of iron ore strongly supports the futures market. Steel mills have officially entered the restocking cycle, and restocking demand may support prices to remain relatively strong [1] Supply - Mainstream mines have a phased end - of - year shipping rush. The weekly shipping volume has increased month - on - month. After the shipping rush, foreign - ore shipping will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic - ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, supply - side support is entering a relatively strong stage [1] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and slightly increased. The profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Overall, domestic steel - mill demand is expected to rise in the short term, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to continue to be released [1] Inventory - The imported inventory of steel mills has increased month - on - month, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has continued to accumulate due to the relatively high arrival volume, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in December [2]

Report Summary of Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report Core View - The price center of finished products is moving down and running weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is running strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to high - price risks and macro guidance [1][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and are expected to resume production from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center is moving down, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices. The future trend is to be affected by macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - Supply: Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is expected to continue to increase in the short - term. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20 [3] - Cost: In December, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.7% month - on - month and decreased by 23.3% year - on - year. Although the cost of alumina raw materials decreased, the total cost increased due to rising electricity and auxiliary material costs. However, the cost increase was lower than the aluminum price increase, and the profit margin expanded [3] - Demand: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises dropped by 1 percentage point to 59.9% last week. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [3] - Inventory: Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15% by the end of December compared to December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption [3] - Price: Supported by macro - sentiment and industry restructuring news, the price is running strongly at a high level. However, considering the domestic off - season, inventory accumulation, and approaching Spring Festival holidays, attention should be paid to high - price risks and macro guidance. The short - term price is expected to be strong, also affected by macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range-bound consolidation. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support for prices [1][2]. - The view on raw materials (carbonate lithium) is that it will stabilize in a range-bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes. The supply side is releasing more capacity, the cost - side support is strengthening, short - term demand declines slightly while long - term demand support is solid, and the inventory is tight but its support for prices is weakening [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Logic**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or plan to shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. The finished products continued to decline in a range - bound manner yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center moves down. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing limited price support [1][2]. - **View**: Operate in a range - bound consolidation [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand [2] Raw Materials (Carbonate Lithium) - **Logic**: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate and output of SMM carbonate lithium increased by 1.2% week - on - week last week. The cost - side support is strengthening as upstream raw material prices continue to rise. On the demand side, short - term demand slightly decreases while long - term demand support is solid. SMM data shows that the production of ternary and lithium iron decreased by 3.2% and 0.8% respectively week - on - week last week, and the production of power cells decreased by 0.92% week - on - week. The inventory of ternary increased by 3.2% week - on - week, and that of lithium iron decreased by 0.98% week - on - week. The SMM sample total inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, with a slower de - stocking slope, and the total inventory days remained at 26.1 days. The inventory structure is shifting from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The inventory is still tight, but its support for prices is weakening [2]. - **View**: Stabilize in a range - bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies, capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience and high - price acceptance, sample inventory de - stocking slope, capital and sentiment [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The finished product market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with horizontal consolidation and limited price fluctuations before the festival, and the macro - market has limited impact on prices. The raw materials are in a low - level consolidation state [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel坯 and Steel Products - In December 2025, the resource volume of national sample steel billet circulation enterprises decreased to about 2.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.75%. Among them, North China accounted for about 49%, and Northeast China accounted for 21% [3] - Last week, the weekly output of rebar was 1.8822 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.08%; the market inventory of rebar was 4.2203 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%; the consumption was 2.0044 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11% [3] 3.2 Heavy - Duty Truck Market - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total annual sales volume in 2025 reached 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [3]

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 5 日 逻辑：元旦节前一周，煤焦期货价格先抑后扬，整体维持震荡走势。 现货方面，上周钢厂完成对焦价的第 4 轮调降，自 11 月底至此焦价累计 下跌 200-220 元/吨。焦企利润被持续压缩，个别地区焦企有提涨计划。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：矿端保持增库 价格承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided documents 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - narrative is positive, the industrial chain fundamentals have improved. Iron ore supply is entering the off - season and there is a restocking demand. The supply - demand of iron ore will enter a phased destocking stage. The restocking demand will support the price, but the upside is limited by the industrial chain profit. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will run in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Logic - Domestically, monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities, and the short - term domestic macro - narrative is positive. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage with prices fluctuating narrowly. There is a "seesaw" effect between precious metals, non - ferrous metals and the black - metal sector. Recently, black - metal prices have recovered due to reduced inventory pressure at the finished - product end, increased industrial chain valuation, strong support from the iron ore spot price for the futures market, and the steel mills' entry into the restocking cycle [1] Supply - Mainstream mines are making a year - end phased shipping rush. The weekly shipping volume has increased month - on - month. After the rush, foreign ore shipping will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, supply support is getting stronger [2] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and slightly increased. The profitability of steel mills has improved after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Domestic steel - mill demand is expected to rise in the short term, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to be continuously released [3] Inventory - The imported inventory at steel mills has increased month - on - month but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Later, attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar cargoes at steel mills will start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating because the arrival volume has remained relatively high, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in December [3] Price - The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will operate in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3] Strategy - Range operation and covered call options [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The price of finished products will move in a downward trend with a weak performance, and it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation manner [1][3]. - The price of lithium carbonate will experience reduced market gaming and stabilize in a range - bound shock, focusing on market gaming and marginal supply - demand changes [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - **Production Disruption**: During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Price Trend**: The price of finished products continued to decline in a shock on the previous day, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, causing the price center to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to move in a shock - consolidation manner, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: On the previous day, the lithium carbonate futures showed a wide - range shock. The main contract closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 459,500 lots and an open interest of 511,300 lots. The market gaming significantly decreased. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of electric lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, with a negative basis of - 3,580 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' spot sales are still limited, while downstream material producers have certain rigid - demand procurement and restocking behavior, and the overall market trading has slightly improved [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate and output of SMM lithium carbonate increased by 0.53% week - on - week, with a slowdown in growth. In terms of demand, short - term demand slightly decreased, while long - term demand was firmly supported. The production of ternary and lithium iron decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% respectively week - on - week, and inventory continued to decline [3]. - **Inventory**: The total weekly inventory decreased by 0.59% week - on - week and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, with a slowdown in the de - stocking slope. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% week - on - week, with a phased inventory build - up, and was 48.79% lower year - on - year, indicating a tight inventory situation with a weakened price support [3]. - **Policy**: On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document to continue the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy, which, together with a series of policies, supports long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, supervision has tightened, and the futures price is expected to maintain a shock - consolidation trend [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to stabilize in a range - bound shock, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience and high - price acceptance, sample inventory de - stocking slope, and capital and sentiment [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong at a high level in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop in mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, as the New Year holiday approaches, market trading is light. After the December 9 - 10 meeting, six policymakers opposed interest rate cuts, and the Fed's next meeting is on January 27 - 28, with investors expecting rates to remain unchanged [2] - On the supply side, new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and a new project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20, so the daily output is expected to continue to increase [3] - High prices inhibit downstream demand, and with increased environmental control in the Central Plains, some local aluminum processing enterprises have shut down, and the spot demand has shrunk, with production expected to resume after the New Year's Day holiday, and the开工 rate has declined [3] - The comprehensive PMI of China's aluminum processing industry in December was 42.4%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a contraction cycle. Among them, the PMI of the aluminum plate and strip industry was 36.3%, hitting a new low [3] - On Monday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 645,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - Aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum enterprises have mostly completed long - term order signing. Attention should be paid to possible alumina enterprise production cuts due to profit compression, and electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term [4]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：价格震荡运行 节前注意持仓风险 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格震荡收涨，夜盘延续震荡走势。现货方面， 各地焦煤价格弱稳运行；焦炭端，近日河北区域钢厂开始对焦价第 4 轮提 降，计划 1 月 1 日起执行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，上周煤矿存在年底减量动作，焦企开始适量补库，但 市场整体成交依旧乏力，矿端库存继续累积。上周炼焦煤矿原煤产量环比 回落 5.4 万吨，精煤日产量环比回落 1.8 万吨；原煤和精煤分别累库 4.2 万吨和 10.1 万吨。进口端，上周甘其毛都日均通关量 19.44 万吨，环比 前一周下降 1.26 万吨，同比增加 13.78 万吨，后半周通关量下滑明显， 当前口岸监管区库存处于偏高平。 ...

晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 逻辑：2026 年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达 首批 625 亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。2026 年国补对象新增智能眼镜、 智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。购买新车按车价补 贴 12%或 10%，补贴上限仍延续 2025 年标准。财政部、税务总局发布公告， 自 2026 年起，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，增值税征收率从 此前的 5%下调至 3%，满两年及以上的免征增值税。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材：驱动不强 震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号 ...