Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The uncertainty of tariff disturbances persists, and the prices of ferrous metals are under pressure. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have both declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. In the short term, maintain a bearish view on rebounds [4] Group 3 - Market performance: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, hitting a new low during the session and then rebounding slightly. The night - session prices further rebounded, but the rebound space is expected to be limited. On the spot side, after the second round of coke price cuts, it is weakly stable, and the spot price of coking coal is under pressure to decline, with the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 clean coal at the port dropping to 918 yuan/ton [3] - Fundamental supply: Last week, according to the data of 523 coking coal sample mines, the daily output of raw coal was 191.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week, and the output has declined for two consecutive weeks. The number of coal mines with production cuts in Shanxi has increased, but the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. Last week, the raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 641.1 million tons, an increase of 305.1 million tons year - on - year; the clean coal inventory was 473 million tons, an increase of 198.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - Fundamental demand: Last week, the demand for coking coal and coke continued to decline slightly. The average daily molten iron output of steel mills dropped to 2.4191 billion tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.08 million tons year - on - year. The overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in production, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and coal prices remain weak [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances intensify the pessimistic expectation of off - season demand, and the expectation of domestic incremental policies is weak. The short - term decline of carbon elements causes the collapse of the cost support of finished products, and the overall valuation decline of the black series drags down the iron ore price. Iron ore's short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality + weak expectation. Demand has basically peaked but the decline slope is low, and the supply side continues to recover but may maintain a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to whether the coking coal price stabilizes and whether the market sentiment can recover [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - The US imposing steel tariffs on the world yesterday intensified the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand, leading to a collective decline of the black series. Recently, the black series has been trading on the pessimistic demand expectation. With the expectation of increased supply of carbon elements, iron elements are relatively strong and the discount of the futures price to the spot price is higher than the historical average. Carbon elements are constantly conceding benefits to iron elements. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level but is expected to remain relatively high, supporting the price [2] Supply - The current period's overseas ore shipments have rebounded month - on - month. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions have significantly rebounded, but the volume of Australian ore shipped to China has declined month - on - month. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady rebound in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from the high level but is still in the high - level area. Hot metal production has declined for three consecutive weeks, with the current period at 241.91 (month - on - month - 1.69). Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall high - level decline trend with a relatively gentle downward slope. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [2] Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked in the first half of June. Overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the staged destocking at the high - inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core Views - For成材, it is expected to have an oscillatory consolidation with a downward trend in the price center, running weakly [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4] 3) Summary According to Related Content For成材 - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will have production disruptions, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - **Market Performance**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase. The price of成材 continued to decline, hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand pattern, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Outlook**: It will run in an oscillatory consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [3] For Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment has eased. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by about 258 yuan/ton last week to about 17,200 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase. The profit of aluminum plants has been compressed. The average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] - **Production and Inventory**: In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY. As of June 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week [3] - **Industry Index**: The PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in May was 49.8%, close to the boom - bust line but still in the contraction range, a 1.8 - percentage - point MoM decrease and an 8.7% YoY increase [3] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, macro policy changes, macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4] - **Tariff Policy**: The US President Trump signed an executive order to raise the import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% on June 4 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - **Future Focus**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - **Future Focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests treating the market with a bearish view in a volatile trend and trying short positions on rebounds [1][2] 2) Core View - The US President Trump announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% effective from June 4, 2025, which further tightens the demand side. The finished steel products were weak last week, with prices hitting bottom due to strong supply and weak demand. As it's approaching the off - season for demand, there's unlikely to be effective improvement in the short - term [1] 3) Other Summaries - **Tariff History**: Trump signed an executive order on February 10 to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum to the US, and the measure officially took effect on March 12. Then on May 30, he announced to raise the steel tariff to 50% [1] - **Market Situation**: The finished steel products were weak last week, with prices hitting bottom due to strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals. The increase in US steel tariffs further tightened the demand side, and it's approaching the off - season for demand, so there's unlikely to be effective improvement in the short - term [1] - **Investment Suggestion**: Treat the market with a bearish view in a volatile trend and try short positions on rebounds [1][2] - **Factors to Watch**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Supply and demand both declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remained high, and a short - term volatile and weak trend was maintained [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures market continued its volatile and weak trend, with prices further declining. On the spot side, the second round of coking price cuts was fully implemented, with a cumulative decline of 100 - 110 yuan/ton in two rounds; the spot price of coking coal declined under pressure, and the self - pick - up quotation of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal at the port dropped to 918 yuan/ton [3] Data on Production and Inventory - Last week, for 523 coking coal sample mines, the daily output of raw coal was 1.918 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared to the previous week, and production declined for two consecutive weeks. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.411 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.051 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.987 million tons [3] Demand Situation - Last week, the demand for coking coal and coke continued to decline slightly. The average daily molten iron output of steel mills dropped to 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 60,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines, and coal prices remained weak [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For the steel product industry, it is recommended to be treated with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market [1] - For the raw material industry, it is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel product market is currently affected by high supply and weak demand, with prices continuously bottoming out. As it enters the seasonal demand off - season, it is difficult for demand to improve substantially in the short term [1] Summary by Related Content Steel Product - As of May 29, 2025, 7 Shandong steel mills have adjusted their annual crude steel production to 55.63 million tons, a decrease of about 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year [1] - This week, the supply of Mysteel's five major steel products was 8.8085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,100 tons, an increase of 1% [1] - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 329,400 tons. Among them, the social inventory was 9.3254 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 280,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 4.3306 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,200 tons [1] - After continuous decline, the steel product price rebounded slightly yesterday. The weekly inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand increased slightly [1] Raw Material - The raw material market is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1]

晨报 煤焦 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 数据方面，本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山数据，原煤日产 191.8 万吨， 环比减少 1.8 万吨，产量连续两周下滑。据了解山西减产煤矿增加，吕梁 因倒换工作面等井下原因减产煤矿增多，晋中、临汾等地煤矿因库存及亏 损压力减产煤矿增加，产量受到抑制。不过当前煤矿端库存压力尚未减轻， 本周煤矿端原煤库存增至 641.1 万吨，同比增加 305.1 万吨；精煤库存 473 万吨，同比增加 198.7 万吨。 原材料：程 鹏 煤焦：供需高位回落 盘面弱势未改 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 29 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货市场延续震荡偏弱走势，价格进一步下探。现 货端，焦价第 2 轮调降全面落地，2 轮累计跌幅 100-110 元/吨；焦煤现 货价格承压下行，蒙 5#精煤口岸自提报价降至 920 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：焦价 2 轮调降落地 盘面弱势未改 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 数据方面，本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山数据，原煤日产 191.8 万吨， 环比减少 1.8 万吨，产量连续两周下滑。据了解山西减产煤 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term carbon element decline causes the collapse of finished product cost support, the expected export resilience weakens, and the overall valuation of the black - series drags down the iron ore price. Demand has basically peaked but with a low slope, supply is continuously rising but may maintain a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term but still be affected by the sector [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic Yesterday, the black - series declined collectively, and iron ore started to make up for the decline. The reasons include the continuous weakness of carbon element prices leading to the collapse of finished product cost support, the lower - than - expected export rush during the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs and the entry of terminal demand into the off - season causing the overall valuation of the black - series to decline, and the high - level decline of hot metal weakening the spot support, shrinking the iron ore basis, and the simultaneous downward movement of futures and spot [3] Supply The current overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipment increased, Brazil's decreased, and non - mainstream shipments declined after a pulse. The overall year - on - year decline of overseas ore shipments is narrowing. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady and rising shipment, with the marginal support of the supply side weakening [3] Demand Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period. Hot metal has declined for two consecutive weeks, with this period at 243.6 (-1.17) and the decline rate expanding. Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export - end expectation is revised upward. It is expected that hot metal will show an overall high - level decline trend with a low downward slope, and the support for prices will weaken marginally [3] Inventory The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked in early June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the staged destocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]