研究报告 甲醇周报 宏观面或有转机，未来关注供给 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 上周由于内地多套装置停车检修，内地甲醇现货涨幅较大， 但是市场对甲醇未来供需偏弱的预期仍未实质性改变，甲醇港 口价格依旧下跌，甲醇期货跟随港口甲醇价格，总体呈现下跌， 截至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2288 元/吨，较上周下跌 2.56%。 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 一、甲醇走势回顾 甲醇期货加权走势图 部分区域甲醇价格对比图（元/吨） 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇企业检修多于复产，甲醇供给再次下降。 需求方面，上周甲醇下游烯烃产能利用率有较为明显的下降， 或预示甲醇未来需求可能缩减。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产 企业库存小幅下降，港口样本库存小幅上升。利润方面，上周 甲醇生产企业利润总体回升，尤其是内蒙、山东煤制甲醇利 ...

研究报告 股指周报 市场逐渐进入平稳 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 上周 IF2505 报收于 3737.0 点，相较前一周 上涨 19.6 点，涨幅 0.53%。IH2505 报收于 2643.8 点，相较前一周上涨 36.8 点，涨幅 1.41%。IC2505 报收于 5481.2 点，相较前一周下 14.2 点，跌幅 0.26%。IM2505 报收于 5738.2 点，相较前一周下 跌 25.0 点，跌幅 0.43%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 研究报告 （一）、基本面分析 1、3 月份，社会消费品零售总额 40940 ...

研究报告 铜周报 沪铜价格或宽幅震荡运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 特朗普政府与美联储的争执升级，美国总统特朗普再度对美 国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔施压，要求美联储立即降息。特朗 普政府昨晚宣布，美方将对中国建造或运营的船只停靠美国港口 征收额外的费用。一季度国内生产总值 318758 亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长 5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长 1.2%。铜价受宏观 面影响依然较大，投资者应关注美国政府及美联储的态度转变。 精炼铜产量保持增长，铜消费仍然强劲，供应处于短缺状况。终 端消费增长预期仍一定程度支撑铜价。沪铜库存继续下降，库存 水平处于近年来较低位。LME 铜库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小 幅下降。 【后市展望】 铜价或以宽幅震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情 ...

螺纹周报 研究报告 市场心态仍然偏弱，钢价低位震荡 摘要： 华龙期货投资咨询部 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 1.6% 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.56%， 环比增加 0.28%，同比增加 4.70%；钢厂盈利率 54.98%，环比增加 1.30%， 同比增加 6.50%；日均铁水产量 240.12 万吨，环比减少 0.10 万吨。上周 螺纹钢周度产量 229.22 万吨，环比下降 3.15 万吨，钢厂库存 200.4 万吨， 环比下降 14.26 万吨，社会库存 532.76 万吨，环比下降 30.34 万吨，钢材 五大品种周度产量 872.71 万吨，环比上升 1.65 万吨，库存合计 1584.68 万吨，环比下降 75.93 万吨，表观需求 948.64，环比上升 48.1 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢表需连续第九周增加，厂 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 市场逐步走稳，油脂震荡整理 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | | | 电话：13609351809 | | | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 04 21 | 月 | 星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡整理，全周豆油 Y2509 合约上涨 0.31%， 以 7704 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约下跌 0.78%以 8132 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约下跌 1.42%，以 9221 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：独立检验公司 AmSpec Agri 发布的数据显示，马 来西亚 4 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 450657 吨，较上月同期出口 增加 53792 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观偏弱供需宽松，胶价维持震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：张正卯 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14510-15195 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格在周一冲高回落之后维持偏弱运行， 总体小幅下跌。 综上所述，在宏观情绪偏空，同时基本面仍然偏弱的情况 下，预计胶价短期内维持震荡偏弱运行，但是下方空间有限， 可逢低考虑轻仓试多。 后续重点关注宏观面和政策面的影响、主产区天气变化情 况、国内外主产区割胶情况、橡胶进口情况、需求变化情况和 库存变化情况。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约短期内或将维持震荡偏弱运 行，但是下方空间有限。 操作上，建议暂时观望为主，激进投资者可考虑逢低择机 轻仓试多。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确 ...

宏观面呈现高度不确定性，建议短线操作 研究报告 甲醇周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周宏观面受美国加征关税影响，甲醇期货大幅波动，截 至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权较上周下跌 3.29%，报收 2348 元/ 吨。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇企业复产多于检修，甲醇供给继续增加。 需求方面，上周甲醇下游产能利用率总体平稳，甲醇样本生产 企业待发订单量再次上升，显示甲醇需求仍然平稳。综合来看， 目前甲醇供需依然偏弱，但是压力不大。上周甲醇样本生产企 业库存再次小幅上升，港口样本库存继续下降。利润方面，上 周甲醇生产企业利润继续下降，但是利润仍较为可观，生产企 业多积极调整价格出货。 【后市展望】 基本面方面：下周由于复产多于检修，甲醇供给或继续增 量，需求方面：预计甲醇下游需求仍延续平稳态势。库存方面： 下周甲醇生产企业库存预计小幅上升，港口库存预计 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3732.2 points, down 129.4 points or 3.35% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2609.0 points, down 55.4 points or 2.08%; IC2504 closed at 5555.8 points, down 266.6 points or 4.58%; IM2504 closed at 5835.0 points, down 333.4 points or 5.4% [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the average CPI from January to March decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [6] - In March 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the purchase price index of industrial producers decreased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In the first quarter, both PPI and the purchase price index decreased by 2.3% compared with the same period last year [9] - As of the end of March 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. In the first quarter, net cash injection was 249.8 billion yuan. In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan [12][13] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of April 13, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 27.48 times, with a quantile of 59.41%, and the PB was 1.76 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.09 times, with a quantile of 38.04%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.5 times, with a quantile of 58.24%, and the PB was 1.17 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.08 times, with a quantile of 37.06%, and the PB was 2.00 times [15] 4. Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market return rate and the treasury bond yield rate. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [20][23] 5. Core View - Affected by the recent "reciprocal tariff" policy, the market has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended that investors operate cautiously. The market may show a volatile rebound next week. Given the market uncertainty, investors can also consider using a small amount of options for trading [26]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the global financial market is highly volatile due to the trade war. The enhanced expectation of a global economic recession and the sharp decline in crude oil prices exert significant pressure on the futures prices of oils and fats. The main short - term influencing factor is trade - war policies, but the probability of further escalation is low. In the long - term, the global supply - demand relationship determines the trend of oils and fats. The Malaysian palm oil report is neutral, and the USDA report is basically neutral. There is a high probability of wide - range fluctuations in the prices of the three major domestic oils and fats [9][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. For the whole week, the Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 2.71% to close at 7,680 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 4.48% to close at 8,196 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.28% to close at 9,354 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: On April 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%. Exports were 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%. Imports were 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%. Inventories were 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.66% [7][31]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA's April supply - demand report showed that the estimated soybean production in the US for the 2024/25 season was 4.366 billion bushels, and the estimated year - end inventory was 375 million bushels. The global soybean production in the 2024/25 season was estimated at 420.58 million tons, and the global ending soybean inventory was 122.47 million tons. US soybeans rose 7.78% this week [7]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of April 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 59,000 tons to 897,000 tons. On April 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 357,000 tons [17]. - As of April 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,273,590 tons [22]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 360 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 502 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, affected by the trade war triggered by the US imposing tariffs globally, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The weekly performance of the contracts was consistent with the abstract. The Malaysian palm oil data and the US soybean data were also consistent with the important information section [31]. - The short - term and long - term influencing factors of oils and fats prices are consistent with the core view [33].

螺纹周报 研究报告 基本面矛盾不明显，宏观面仍是影响盘面主要变量 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 4 | 月 | 14 | 日星期一 | 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 3.21% 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.28%， 环比增加 0.15%，同比增加 4.87%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.19%，环比增 加 0.56%，同比增加 6.14%；钢厂盈利率 53.68%，环比减少 1.73%，同比 增加 15.58%；日均铁水产量 240.22 万吨，环比增加 1.49 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 后市展 ...