Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Looking ahead, there are uncertainties in the macro - aspect. The supply side of rubber is supported to some extent by weather, but the demand side has not improved significantly, and there is potential supply pressure in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Key factors to focus on include geopolitical impacts, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of zero - tariff policies, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][90] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2509 ranged from 13,565 to 14,000 yuan/ton, showing a strong and volatile trend with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of June 13, 2025, it was reported at 13,875 yuan/ton, up 225 points or 1.65% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of June 13, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,310 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two shrank slightly. As of June 13, 2025, the basis was maintained at 25 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton less than last week [27] Important Market Information - Geopolitical: On June 13, local time, the "Israel - Iran conflict" broke out, causing a shock in the global market. Crude oil prices soared by more than 13% and then declined, safe - haven assets such as gold rose significantly, and global stock markets fell collectively [34] - US Economic Data: In May, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year; the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year; the initial jobless claims last week were 248,000, the highest since October 5, 2024 [35][36] - Global Economic Outlook: The World Bank lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, and Fitch adjusted the global sovereign rating outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" [36][37] - Sino - US Economic and Trade: From June 9 to 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, achieving new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [37] - China's Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. From January to May, the export of China's equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [38] - China's Automobile Market: In May, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. The export of automobiles in May was 551,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 2.49 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [39][40] Supply - Side Situation - As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month; the production in China's main producing area increased significantly; the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India's main producing areas decreased slightly compared with the previous month; the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased significantly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous month [44] - As of April 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%; the cumulative production was 2.947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [48][52] - As of April 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35% [57] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 12, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week [59] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5896 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [63][66] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales volume was 87,667, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [71] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 57.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 7.87% [74][80] Inventory - Side Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 193,070 tons, 460 tons less than last week [88] - As of June 8, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.275 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 762,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 513,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [88] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons or 0.67% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 0.54% [88] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, but recent weather in the main producing areas has affected rubber tapping, and rubber imports have increased significantly [89] - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises rebounded slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The all - steel tire inventory decreased, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The automobile market showed good performance in May, with a significant increase in export growth, while heavy - truck sales were average [89] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [89] 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, it is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, and key factors need to be closely monitored [90] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range - bound operations [9][91]

摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 0.44%。 基本面：据中钢协数据，6 月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业 共生产粗钢 2159 万吨，平均日产 215.9 万吨，日产环比增 长 3.2%。据我的钢铁网数据，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.41%， 环比减少 0.15%，同比增加 1.36%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.58%，环比减少 0.07%，同比增加 1.05%；钢厂盈利率 58.44%，环比减少 0.43%，同比增加 8.66%；日均铁水产量 241.61 万吨，环比减少 0.19 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢产量、厂库连续第三周减少，社 库连续第十四周减少，表需连续第二周减少。目前进入需求 淡季，钢材供需双双走弱，钢价中期预计以震荡为主。 交易策略：建议观望 螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend [2][36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 19,925 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,420 yuan/ton [6] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures fluctuated with a slightly stronger trend, ranging from 2,445 - 2,528 US dollars/ton [10] 2. Spot Analysis - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 20,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,665 yuan/ton, 20,795 yuan/ton, 20,695 yuan/ton, and 20,650 yuan/ton respectively [13] - As of June 13, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum premium/discount was maintained at around a discount of 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [13] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In May 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 89.5 million tons, the total capacity was 112.42 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.61%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [19] - As of June 5, 2025, the total domestic inventory was 55,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 tons, in Bayuquan was 34,000 tons, and in Qingdao Port was 21,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [19] - As of May 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.139 million tons, the total capacity was 45.202 million tons, and the operating rate was 97.65%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [19] 4. Inventory Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,001 tons, a decrease of 8,164 tons from the previous week [28] - As of June 12, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 355,600 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 9.45% [28] - As of June 12, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 426,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 45,000 tons, in Wuxi was 109,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 182,000 tons, in Tianjin was 19,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 48,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 5,000 tons [28] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The latest US economic data shows that inflation pressure is more moderate than expected, while the labor market may be deteriorating, and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates is rising [34] - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The national producer price index for industrial products decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [34] - The operating rate of alumina enterprises has increased slightly, and the alumina inventory has gradually recovered but remains at a low level. The electrolytic aluminum capacity continues the slow growth trend. The Shanghai aluminum inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the inventory level is at an extremely low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: Volatility Narrowing and the Stalemate between Long and Short Positions [1] - Report Author: Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Financial Sector Researcher: Deng Xiayu [4] Group 2: Market Review - IF2506 closed at 3855.4 points, up 33.0 points or 0.86% from the previous week [4] - IH2506 closed at 2673.6 points, up 6.4 points or 0.24% from the previous week [4] - IC2506 closed at 5725.4 points, up 97.6 points or 1.73% from the previous week [4] - IM2506 closed at 6100.2 points, up 134.2 points or 2.25% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 8, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 29.11 times, with a quantile of 68.63% and a PB of 1.8 times [9] - The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, with a quantile of 74.9% and a PB of 1.2 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.56 times, with a quantile of 53.73% and a PB of 1.31 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.05 times, with a quantile of 60.39% and a PB of 2.09 times [9] Group 5: Other Data - Stock - Bond Yield Spread - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two calculation formulas [17] - Formula 1: Stock - bond yield spread = (1 / Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield [17] - Formula 2: Stock - bond yield spread = 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis - The A - share market showed an oscillating pattern with significant differentiation among sectors. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Indexes outperformed the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes [20] - The overall market showed a relatively strong trend, but the future upward space may be limited [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to macro - economic data, Sino - US economic and trade negotiation policies, and external market fluctuations [20]

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观利好供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13295-13800 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 报收 13650 元/吨，当周上涨 245 点，涨幅 1.83%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格受宏观情绪提振震荡 偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，中美高层互动增强市场流动性 预期，缓解了贸易战引发的经济衰退担忧，对胶价构成短期支 撑。从基本面来看，供给方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入增 产期，供应上量预期增强，1-4 月国内橡胶进口增量明显，供给 端压力加大。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均小幅下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black sector stopped falling and rebounded last week driven by coking coal. The decline in rebar production was significant, and the inflection point of steel supply is approaching. However, the fundamentals still need to be repaired. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [5][34] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Analysis - As of June 6, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10] Important Market Information - On the evening of June 5, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Both sides agreed to implement the Geneva agreement and strengthen cooperation [14] Supply - Side Situation - As of the week of the report, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,500 tons. The average含税 cost of billets in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills was 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [5][32] Demand - Side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager's index in the steel distribution industry was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Inventory - Side Situation - The rebar inventory in steel mills was 1.8486 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons; the social inventory was 3.8562 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,700 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 13.6381 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,900 tons [33] Fundamental Analysis - In late May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.091 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9%. On June 6, Shandong's mainstream steel mills lowered the purchase price of coke. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2669 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 398,900 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1399 million tons, a decrease of 1.269 million tons [32] 后市展望 - The black sector stopped falling and rebounded last week driven by coking coal. The decline in rebar production was significant, and the inflection point of steel supply is approaching. However, the fundamentals still need to be repaired. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [6][34]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats showed a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil prices declined due to the expected increase in domestic imports following signs of eased China - Canada trade relations. Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose slightly. Given the seasonal consumption off - peak and the upcoming summer vacation in southern sales areas, with normal soybean import rhythm and high - volume factory crushing, soybean oil inventory will further accumulate. Domestic oil and fat inventories are slightly on the loose side, and consumption is average. There is a high possibility of futures prices oscillating and consolidating [8][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Analysis - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 7,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12]. Other Data - As of May 30, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 6.40 million tons to 84.80 million tons. On June 4, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 3.00 million tons to 36.30 million tons [16]. - As of June 5, 2025, the port - imported soybean inventory was 5,895,030 tons [20]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 304 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 404 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 168 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats oscillated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 1.31% to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.23% to close at 9,140 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to increase by 3.07%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 1.01%. Meanwhile, 6 - 7 months in 2025 saw concentrated soybean purchases by Chinese enterprises. It is expected that 12 million tons of soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. Based on last year's average monthly soybean crushing volume of 8.7 million tons from June to August, the domestic soybean commercial inventory is expected to increase by 3 - 4 million tons by the end of August. The US soybeans rose 1.51% this week [6][7][30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market outlook for methanol has not improved, and it may continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market continued to have an oversupply situation. The methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price was 2,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [6][11]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. As of May 29, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; in Guangdong, it was 2,285 yuan/ton, down 3.01%; in Ordos North Line, it was 1,931 yuan/ton, down 6.67%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,152 yuan/ton, down 5.36% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the methanol production in China increased slightly. The production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The 100,000 - ton natural gas - to - methanol plant of Daqing Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and there were no new maintenance plants [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The MTO capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased significantly. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.61%, an increase of 15.83 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - The capacity utilization rates of other downstream products such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [17][19]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 28, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [22]. - The port sample inventory of methanol continued to rise. As of May 28, 2025, the port sample inventory was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65% [27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples decreased overall. The average profit of different production methods such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol, and Shandong coal - to - methanol all declined [30]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the resumption of methanol plants is more than the maintenance, and the production is expected to be about 2,027,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.90%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The olefin enterprises in Shandong and the Northwest regions may increase their loads, and the overall downstream demand is expected to be stable to positive [8][37]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 359,800 tons, a slight increase from last week [38]. - The port inventory is expected to continue to rise due to sufficient expected arrivals of foreign vessels and possible impacts on truck pick - up during the holiday [38]. In conclusion, the market outlook for methanol remains weak, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [39].