1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week. The supply side failed to provide support, downstream demand remained weak, and the market showed a regional differentiation trend. In the future, the expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [6][8][9] - The methanol price may fluctuate within a range in the future, and a short straddle strategy can be considered [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week [6][12] - Spot: The port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,230 - 2,290 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,210 - 2,250 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline. The price in the northern line of Ordos ranged from 1,830 - 1,838 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2,105 - 2,118 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.34% [15] - **Downstream**: The overall downstream was stable but weak. The MTO device in Zhejiang Xingxing stopped, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 53.84%, a decrease of 13.22 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde all increased to varying degrees [19][20] - **Inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 0.71% from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.13% from the previous period. The port inventory was 1.4353 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.63% [22][25] - **Profit**: Last week, the profits of various methanol production processes were squeezed to different degrees. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 251.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 17.79%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 196.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 18.01% [28] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of domestic methanol device overhauls may be more than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 90.87%, a decrease from last week [31] - **Downstream demand**: The MTO device will operate stably this week, and the average weekly start - up rate will decline. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde are expected to increase, while the capacity utilization rate of chlorides may decline [32][33] - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises this week will be 444,100 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase this week [33] - **Price trend**: The expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January, the spot price of eggs has risen by over 15%, and the futures market has also strengthened. The concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the marginal shrinkage of supply have supported the market. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still relatively high, and potential supply pressure and post - holiday demand decline expectations may limit price increases. In the long - term, the core driver lies in the pace of production capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter of this year, but short - term price increases face multiple constraints [9][60] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trend Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of egg futures changed to JD2603, with a volatile and slightly upward trend. As of the close on January 16, the main JD2603 contract was reported at 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.39% [6][14] (2) Spot Price - Last week, egg prices in production and sales areas rose together, and the regional price difference continued to narrow. As of January 16, 2026, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.5 yuan per catty, and in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan per catty [8][17] (3) Basis Situation - Last week, due to the concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the shipping speed in production areas accelerated, inventory decreased, and the spot premium significantly expanded. As the market was worried about post - holiday demand decline, the futures price increase was restricted. As of last Friday, the main contract JD2603 closed at 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a basis of 428 yuan per 500 kilograms [20] 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side a. Inventory of Laying Hens - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.295 billion. Since August last year, the inventory has been decreasing monthly but remains at a relatively high level in recent years [29] b. Old Hen Slaughter Volume - Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample market was 658,500, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, the same as the previous week [33] c. Shipping Volume in Production Areas - As the Spring Festival approached, the market's bullish expectation strengthened, downstream dealers and terminal channels were more active in stocking, and the shipping of eggs in production areas accelerated. Last week, the total shipping volume of the sample market in the main production areas was 7,600.70 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.91% [35] (2) Demand Side a. Sales Volume in Sales Areas - Recently, the downstream stocking atmosphere has been strong, demand has been improving, and sales in sales areas have increased month - on - month. Last week, the sales volume of eggs in representative markets in sales areas was 7,792.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [39] b. Old Hen Slaughter Volume - Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 2.3249 million, a decrease of 81,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% [42] (3) Inventory Situation - Supported by the consumption peak season, market circulation accelerated. As of January 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.26 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.44 days [45] (4) Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.54 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.57%. The profit was - 0.18 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.24 yuan per catty or 57.14%. The cost of egg - laying hen breeding was 133.57 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 yuan per hen or 0.35%. The breeding profit was 4.70 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 9.54 yuan per hen [53] (5) Related Product Situation a. White - Feathered Broilers - Last week, the national price of white - feathered broilers decreased month - on - month. The average price in front of the shed was 3.75 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [57] b. 817 Small White Chickens - Last week, the price of 817 small white chickens was stable. The national weekly average price was 3.92 yuan per catty, with no change month - on - month [59] 3. Market Outlook - Since January, the spot price of eggs has risen by over 15%, and the futures market has also strengthened. The concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the marginal shrinkage of supply have supported the market. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still relatively high, and potential supply pressure and post - holiday demand decline expectations may limit price increases. In the long - term, the core driver lies in the pace of production capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter of this year, but short - term price increases face multiple constraints [9][60] 4. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously monitor the pace of production capacity reduction; Arbitrage: None; Options: None [10][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash market operated under the pressure of "increasing supply and weak demand." The continuous accumulation of high inventory and the deteriorating industry profit jointly suppressed the price. Although the expectation of cost support is gradually strengthening, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern with limited upside space before the demand side shows substantial improvement [9][39] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons [10] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.82%, compared with 84.39% in the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.43%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a week - on - week increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 89.47%, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [12] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 0.66% compared with Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2,300 tons or 0.15%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons [15] - The inventory at the same time last year was 1,431,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,390 tons or 10.06% [16] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of January 15, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points [18] (4) Profit Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese soda ash by the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt fluctuated steadily, the price of steam coal continued to rise, and the cost side increased; the soda ash market fluctuated little, and the price was adjusted steadily, so the double - ton profit of the co - production method continued to be at a low level [21] - As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 96.30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material sea salt was stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, and the cost side increased slightly; the new price of soda ash had light transactions, mainly at low prices, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [25] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of January 15, 2026, the daily output of national floating glass was 150,700 tons, an increase of 0.45% compared with the 8th. The weekly (January 9 - 15, 2026) output of national floating glass was 1,052,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28% [27] - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 53,013,000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2,505,000 heavy boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89% [31] 3. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price was under pressure and fluctuated as a whole, with the center of gravity moving down. The market continued to trade the core logic of "supply exceeding demand" [39] - From the weekly fundamentals, the market was dominated by negative factors. The pressure on the supply side remained unabated. With the resumption of some devices, the industry's operating rate and weekly output increased significantly month - on - month, and the overall supply was at a high level. The demand side was dull. Although the enterprise's shipment volume increased due to pre - holiday stocking, the downstream glass industry's procurement of raw materials was mainly for rigid demand, and there was resistance to high - price goods, so the demand failed to form an effective pull. In this context, the industry inventory continued to accumulate month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase was obvious, which confirmed the pattern of loose market supply. At the same time, the production profit further shrank, especially the ammonia - soda process had fallen into deep losses, indicating that the current price decline was approaching the cost support line [39] 4. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Be cautious and wait and see, or conduct short - term range operations - Arbitrage: None - Options: Consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value in the expected high - volatility shock [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][90][91] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures ranged from 15,780 to 16,480 yuan/ton, showing a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline. As of the close on January 16, 2026, it closed at 15,835 yuan/ton, down 195 points or 1.22% for the week [14] Spot Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to last week. As of January 16, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 135 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton compared to last week [26] - As of January 16, the domestic price of natural rubber decreased slightly compared to last week, while the foreign price increased slightly [30] Important Market Information - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters. There were different responses from various parties, and Trump said he would announce the next Fed chairman in the coming weeks [31] - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, and Iran said it was ready for all possibilities [31] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000, and the four - week moving average reached a two - year low [32] - The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, and gave different growth forecasts for the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [32] - Trump expressed his hope for the Fed to cut interest rates, and mentioned plans for people's livelihood burden reduction, government shutdown, and housing policy [32] - The US budget deficit in December 2025 was 145 billion US dollars, a record high for that month [32] - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value. The market expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [33] - The St. Louis Fed President said there was little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [33] - The US PPI and core PPI in November 2024 increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than expected [34] - China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in response to Trump's tariff threat and the G7's decision to reduce rare earth imports from China [34] - In 2025, China's second - hand car market transaction volume exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, with new energy second - hand car transactions accounting for 7.9% [34] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, reaching a new high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of domestic new car sales. It is expected that in 2026, China's total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 15.2% [34] - The 2026 work meeting of the inter - ministerial joint conference on the development of energy - saving and new energy vehicle industries emphasized enhancing the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and promoting the large - scale application of new energy heavy trucks [35] - China's automobile export enterprise structure was significantly optimized in 2025, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future, but it also faces challenges [35] - In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For the whole year of 2025, production and sales reached a new high, and new energy vehicles became the dominant force in the market. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports doubling [36] - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [37] Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased slightly compared to the previous month, while that in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China increased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [41] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [44] - As of November 30, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [47] - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.44%, up 7.55% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.93%, up 4.91% from last week [56] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% [60] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [63] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 102,701 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.31% [68] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [71] - As of November 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [76] - In December 2025, Japan's automobile sales were 335,459, Germany's passenger - car sales were 246,400, and Germany's commercial - vehicle sales were 28,706. In November 2025, South Korea's domestic automobile sales were 116,906, the US sedan sales were 201,624, the US light - truck sales were 1,071,766, and the US light - vehicle sales were 1,273,390 [79] Inventory - side Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,390 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week [86] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [86] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62%. The bonded - area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general - trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [86] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping, which supports rubber prices. Main producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam are gradually entering the low - production period, but southern Thailand is still in the peak - production period in the short term. The impact of recent weather has weakened, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [87] - Demand: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered, and the operating rates of tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and the market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in 2025 increased year - on - year. The heavy - truck sales in December were better than expected. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken. China's tire exports increased in November 2025, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive [88] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with the inventory - accumulation speed slightly decreasing [88] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline last week. In the future, macro - economically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was significantly lower than expected last week, and the Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in January, leading to a cooling of macro - sentiment. Commodities showed differentiation, and the chemical - product index first rose and then fell. Domestically, macro - easing policies continue to be introduced, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive. Fundamentally, the supply side still has some pressure, the terminal consumption performs well, and the inventory - accumulation speed of social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased. Overall, the natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Key factors to watch include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather and raw - material output in rubber - producing areas, inventory - accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal - demand changes [89][90] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will remain range - bound in the short term. - Operation strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [91][92]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillatory trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities, and it is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [6][33] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2603 of Shanghai Aluminum futures showed an oscillatory market, with prices ranging from around 23,790 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,075 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - In December 2025, the national ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; they increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; they increased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. In 2025, the ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was 26.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was 0.7% [5][12][13][32] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 95.7 million tons, the total capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.49%, maintaining a relatively high level compared to the past five years. As of December 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.594 million tons, the total capacity was 45.362 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.31%, maintaining a relatively high level compared to the past five years from a seasonal perspective [18] 4. Inventory Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 185,879 tons, an increase of 42,051 tons from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 488,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 8.45%. As of January 15, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 698,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous day [24] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The situation of global alumina supply surplus continues. The in - production capacity and operating rate of alumina both decreased, while the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises remained high. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased significantly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly [32] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillatory trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities, and it is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [6][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] Report's Core View - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 3.17%. In the commodity futures market, most major commodity futures prices increased, and the financial market sentiment was relatively positive. With a lack of fundamental drivers, the macro - level provided the main support for the market. Iron ore is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend in the near future [4][34] - For single - sided trading, it is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the support at 800 yuan/ton. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6][35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Analysis - This section includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the PB powder 61.5% spot price at Tianjin Port), and futures position net - position analysis [7][8][12] 2. Important Market Information - In 2025, the cumulative increase in the total social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of December 2025, the broad - money (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the RMB loan balance was 271.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [15] - The World Bank raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The US GDP growth rate is expected to reach 2.2% in 2026, while the economic growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan are expected to slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [15] 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,965 million tons, an increase of 911 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was 101.16 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.33 US dollars/ton from the previous month [20] - As of December 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 7,139.3 million tons, an increase of 954.4 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 2,763.5 million tons, a decrease of 332.8 million tons from the first half of the month [24] 4. Demand - Side Situation - This section involves data on the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume [25][28][30] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 16,555.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 279.84 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1989 million tons, a decrease of 338,000 tons; the number of ships at the port was 117, an increase of 1 [33] - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 1.66%; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.20%; the steel - mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39%; the daily average molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 149,000 tons [33] - In early January, key steel enterprises produced 19.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.997 million tons, a daily output increase of 21.6% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%; and the daily output of steel products was 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [33] 6. Future Outlook - Iron ore is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend in the near future [34] 7. Operation Strategy - For single - sided trading, go long on dips and pay attention to the support at around 800 yuan/ton. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [5][6][35][36]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Last week, the methanol futures showed a strong performance, and the methanol still presented a regional differentiation trend. Recently, due to concerns about potential US military actions against Iran and the clear expectation of reduced imports from Iran, the port methanol market has strengthened, which also boosts the methanol futures. In the context of positive expectations, the methanol futures may continue to be strong, but the improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and the rebound height of the methanol futures needs further observation [5][7][8][29] Group 3 Methanol trend review - Last week, influenced by positive expectations and the strength of port methanol, the methanol futures showed a strong performance. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price reached 2,274 yuan/ton, a 2.66% increase from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol inventory continued to accumulate, but the market strengthened. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,210 to 2,310 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,190 to 2,280 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price first rose and then fell, with the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1,843 to 1,858 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2,123 to 2,140 yuan/ton [5][11] Methanol fundamental analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the domestic methanol production continued to decline. The effective production capacity of Chinese methanol plants was 106.275 million tons/year, the production was 2,042,365 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a 1.12% increase due to the decrease in the production capacity base [14] - **Downstream demand**: As of January 8, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows. For olefins, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Yangtze River Delta was 66.86%, a 2.19 percentage point decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 2.96%, a 17.78% decrease. The overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 75.87%. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 34.07% [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 447,700 tons, a 5.94% increase from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,500 tons, a 14.16% increase. As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.5372 million tons, a 2.73% increase. The inventory in Zhejiang region increased significantly, while the South China port inventory decreased slightly [18][21] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material coal price fluctuated slightly higher, and the natural gas price slightly decreased. The methanol market generally increased slightly. The profits of the main methanol production processes all improved slightly. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was - 213.60 yuan/ton, a 10.19% increase; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 166.60 yuan/ton, a 4.91% increase, etc. [24] Methanol trend outlook - **Supply**: This week, there may be more maintenance than restart of domestic methanol plants. It is expected that the Chinese methanol production will be about 2.0518 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.84%, a slight increase from last week [27] - **Downstream demand**: For olefins, there is an expectation of reduced load in the MTO industry. For dimethyl ether, the overall capacity utilization rate may increase. For glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, the capacity utilization rate may increase. For chlorides, the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 451,100 tons, continuing the increasing trend. The port inventory may decrease, depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and the change in提货 volume [28] - **Overall**: The improvement in methanol expectations boosts the strong performance of methanol futures, but the improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and the rebound height of the methanol futures needs further observation [29] Operation strategy - Considering the positive expectations, the methanol futures may be strong, and a bull spread strategy can be considered [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][34] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an oscillating market, ranging from around 100,050 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 105,500 yuan/ton [9] (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Governor Milan expects a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026, which is expected to create about one million jobs without triggering inflation. He believes that US policy is still substantially above the neutral level. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 11.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 88.4%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 40.3%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 55.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.3% [4][12][33] (3) Supply and Demand Situation - **China's copper smelting fees at the bottom**: As of January 8, 2026, China's copper smelter rough smelting fee was - 44.96 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 US cents/pound. As of November 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [15] - **Decline in power grid construction investment growth rate**: As of November 2025, the power grid construction investment was 560.39 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%, with a slowdown in growth rate. From a seasonal perspective, the current investment is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [21] (4) Inventory Situation - **Global visible inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543 tons, an increase of 35,201 tons from the previous week. As of January 7, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 18.1% [24] - **Domestic invisible market inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 101,800 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 43,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 75,100 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The short - term market is expected to remain range - bound. The report suggests temporarily observing the market, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips [8][92][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2605 ranged between 15,680 - 16,390 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating and upward - trending pattern with a significant overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of January 9, 2026, the main contract closed at 16,030 yuan/ton, up 425 points or 2.72% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [20]. - As of January 9, 2026, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to the previous week. As of January 9, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [28]. - As of January 9, 2026, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [31]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical events include the US "blitz" on Venezuela and related international responses. The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation was completely dashed. The US economic data showed mixed results, with some indicators improving and others weakening. China's economic data, such as CPI and PPI, showed certain trends, and the auto market had various sales data and promotional activities [32][35][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's and India's increased slightly, Vietnam's and China's increased slightly. The total production in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [42]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the cumulative production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [45][48]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [53]. Demand - side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week [57]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.1%; the monthly sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2% [61][64]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65.38% and a month - on - month increase of 6.64% [70]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [73][78]. Inventory - side Situation - As of January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from the previous week. - As of January 4, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 815,000 tons, an increase of 3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 417,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. - As of January 4, 2026, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8% [88]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: China's natural rubber domestic production area ended its 2025 tapping season, while Southeast Asian main production areas were in the peak tapping season. Due to recent low temperatures in northeastern Thailand and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand, overseas raw material prices remained high. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly. Currently in the seasonal consumption off - season, enterprises' overall shipment pace was slow, and finished - product inventories increased. In the terminal auto market, although December 2025 passenger car sales decreased year - on - year, the cumulative sales for the year increased slightly. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires from January to November 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [89]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with an accelerating inventory - building speed [90]. 后市展望 - The macro - situation has limited impact on natural rubber prices due to the US - Venezuela conflict. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and other factors affect the macro - sentiment. From the fundamental perspective, the supply side has high - priced overseas raw materials due to weather, the demand side is in a seasonal off - season with some short - term fluctuations in enterprise operating rates, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the natural rubber market is in a state of multi - empty game, and the short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Key factors to be followed include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather in rubber - producing areas, inventory - building, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal demand changes [91][92]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - sided trading, temporarily observe, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily observe [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's rise in the soda ash market was more of a rebound driven by sentiment and funds, lacking solid demand support. With increasing supply and rapid inventory accumulation, the upside for prices is severely restricted. The market has entered a phase of intense confrontation between "weak reality" and "expectations," and it is expected to continue the pattern of high - level oscillations, waiting for new drivers [8][36][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Among them, light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, an increase of 4.43% from the previous period. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a week - on - week increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.24% [11] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,572,700 tons, a 4.26% increase from Monday and an 11.67% increase from the previous Wednesday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 101,900 tons or 6.93%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons [14] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [15] (4) Profit Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit (per two - ton) of the co - production method for soda ash in China was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The profit decreased slightly due to the increase in the cost side and the weak and stable soda ash market [20] - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash in China was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The profit improved because the soda ash price rebounded after a decline [24] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national floating glass was 150,100 tons, a 0.96% decrease compared to the 1st. The weekly output from January 2 - 8, 2026, was 1,059,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [27] - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 55,518,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1,348,000 weight boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [31] 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 1.31% week - on - week, while the price of well - mine salt in East China remained unchanged. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions decreased or remained stable, except for heavy soda ash in the Northwest, which increased by 2.33%. The price of floating glass increased by 1.03% week - on - week, while the price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass decreased by 4.35%. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 2.35%, the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% [35] 4. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contract of soda ash futures showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the weekly line closing slightly positive. The market sentiment gradually returned to rationality, and there was a deep confrontation between "short - term sentiment game" and "accumulated fundamental pressure" [36] - The market showed a typical "strong supply and weak demand" characteristic. The supply - side pressure increased sharply, the inventory accumulated significantly, and the enterprise shipment volume and shipment rate decreased. However, due to previous losses and macro - level optimistic expectations, the price had a psychological bottom support, resulting in volatile prices [36] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations for single - side trading, not to conduct arbitrage, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [38]