1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the rebar 2601 contract rose 0.03%. From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry operation slowed down. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: There is a daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract, but no specific data analysis is provided [8][9] - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The report mentions rebar basis (active contract), but no detailed data or analysis is provided [16] Important Market Information - In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry's off - season characteristics are gradually emerging. It is expected that in December, steel demand may decline steadily, steel production will moderately contract, raw material prices will fall from high levels, and steel prices will fluctuate and stabilize [18] Supply - side Situation - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89% [6][40] Demand - side Situation - As of November 2025, the current value of the construction industry in the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.6, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing managers' index was 47.7, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [29][30] Fundamental Analysis - From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89%. The average daily hot metal output was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons [38][40] 后市展望 (Future Outlook) - From January - September, the profitability was good. In October, as raw materials continuously squeezed the profit of finished products and steel prices fell, the steel mill profit declined rapidly. At the end of October, the average daily hot metal output fell below 240,000 tons, ending the high - yield situation that lasted for 7 months since March. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [6][41] Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait for the stabilization signal to further strengthen and then try to go long with a light position on dips - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Wait and see [7][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the economic fundamentals show structural improvement, the short - term repair market is insufficient to boost market confidence. The long - term positive trend remains unchanged, but valuation pressure and external uncertainties will restrict the upward space of the index. Investors should be patient and wait for clearer market signals [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In November, the stock index futures market showed an overall volatile and corrective trend, with all major contracts recording monthly declines. Among them, the CSI 500 index futures had the most significant adjustment, followed by the SSE 300 index futures, while the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 index futures were relatively resilient. Specific data for major futures contracts on November 28th: SSE 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,505.8 with a monthly decline of 2.71% (125.6); SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,963.2 with a monthly decline of 1.72% (52.0); CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 6,974.2 with a monthly decline of 3.70% (- 268.2); CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,260.8 with a monthly decline of 1.46% (- 107.4) [5]. - In November, all bond futures declined. On November 28th, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.490 with a monthly decline of 1.60% (- 1.86); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.940 with a monthly decline of 0.43% (- 0.465); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.745 with a monthly decline of 0.32% (- 0.245); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.378 with a monthly decline of 0.12% (- 0.120) [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business levels [7]. - In November, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - In November, the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of November 28th, the PE of the SSE 300 index was 13.94 times, the percentile was 80.2%, and the PB was 1.45 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.83 times, the percentile was 88.43%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 32.03 times, the percentile was 76.47%, and the PB was 2.19 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.44 times, the percentile was 73.33%, and the PB was 2.44 times [15]. 3.4 Other Data - Stock - bond spread: There are two calculation formulas. One is (1/Index static P/E ratio) - 10 - year Treasury bond yield, and the other is 10 - year Treasury bond yield - Index static dividend yield [28]. - China - Buffett indicator: On November 28, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 88.25%. The current "total market capitalization/GDP" was at the 87.44% percentile in historical data and the 91.31% percentile in the past 10 - year data [32]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - Macroeconomically, the official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been in the expansion range for 10 consecutive months, indicating continuous economic structural transformation. The non - manufacturing business activity index declined, with the construction industry showing obvious improvement in business levels and significantly improved market expectations [34]. - In terms of valuation, although the market has adjusted, the valuation percentiles of major indices are still at relatively high historical levels. The ratio of total market capitalization to GDP remains high, indicating that the overall market valuation pressure still exists [34]. 3.6 Operation Suggestions - Adopt a neutral approach, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely monitor subsequent economic data and policy trends. For unilateral trading, consider bottom - fishing but beware of valuation risks; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, consider covered strategies to increase returns [35][36].

研究报告 橡胶周报 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 市场存在多空分歧，或将维持区间震荡 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 14980-15525 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 价格先抑后扬，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15410 元/吨，当周上涨 170 点，涨幅 1.12%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡运行，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，劳动力市场依然疲软，美联储降息 预期升温，提振市场情绪。从基本面来看，供给方面，主产区 受降雨天气干扰，橡胶成本端存在支撑。10 月天然橡胶进口数 量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中国累计进口天然及合成橡胶增幅 明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企业半钢胎开工率小幅下降，全钢 胎开工率小幅上升 ...

华龙期货投资咨询部 研究报告 豆粕月报 美豆进口加速，豆粕期价震荡整理 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 11 月豆粕期价震荡整理，11 月豆粕加权上涨 0.20%， 以 2946 报收；菜粕加权上涨 2.79%，以 2433 报收。国际市场上， 美豆连续上涨 1.55%，以 1132.25 报收，美豆粉下跌 0.22%，以 322.70 报收。 【重要资讯】： USDA11 月报告显示：全球大豆产量预计为 4.2175 亿吨，压 榨量为 3.6498 亿吨。全球大豆期末库存预估下调 200 万吨至 1.2199 亿吨，库存消费比预计为 20%。 【后市展望】： 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 01 日星期一 近期陆续有中国采购美豆的订单，自 10 月底以来预期至少已 采购 50 船以上，中国的采购需求对 CBOT 美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current market still has a prominent high - inventory contradiction, and the improvement in terminal demand is limited. Although industry profit repair and the low - valuation pattern provide some bottom support for prices, before the supply - demand fundamentals improve substantially, the market is expected to continue to oscillate. It is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and consider a covered option strategy [8][45][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Overview - In November 2025, the price of the glass futures main contract FG2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton, a monthly change of - 2.77%, closing at 1053 yuan/ton. The national average price of the float glass market was 1135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, or 7.35% [5][6]. - The inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. b. Spot Price Trend - In November, the domestic float glass market price generally declined. At the beginning of the month, the market sentiment improved due to the concentrated shutdown of 4 coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area, but then weakened due to weak demand and high intermediate inventory. Near the end of the month, the market sentiment improved again due to the shutdown of some production lines in Hubei [9]. - The average prices in all regions decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, in North China, the average price was 1106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.22% [10]. c. Cost - Profit Analysis - In October, the profits of float glass and upstream soda ash decreased. Soda ash (ammonia - soda process) was in continuous loss, and the average profit of float glass turned negative [15]. - The average profit of float glass with different fuels decreased significantly in October compared with the previous month. For example, the average profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton [18]. d. Supply - Side Situation - In November, the monthly output and capacity utilization rate of float glass decreased. The estimated output was 4.7634 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92%. The average daily output was 158,900 tons, a decrease of 250 tons or 1.55% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.38%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [23]. - The maintenance loss in November was 1.2374 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,100 tons or 3.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 22,700 tons or 1.8%. From January to November, the cumulative maintenance loss was 14.0396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9469 million tons or 20.99% [27]. e. Demand - Side Situation - In November, the total consumption of float glass increased month - on - month. The domestic theoretical consumption was 5.0019 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.42% [30]. f. Inventory - Side Situation - In November, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. g. Import and Export Data - In October, the import of float glass was 13,800 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons or 25.92% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 193,500 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons or 8.41% compared with the same period last year [40]. - In October, the export of float glass was 81,000 tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons or 32.81% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 857,400 tons, an increase of 445,800 tons or 108.31% compared with the same period last year [43]. h. Market Outlook - In November, the domestic float glass market continued its downward trend, with prices falling to a nearly ten - year low. The core contradiction in the market lies in the deep game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [45]. - In terms of supply, there is a substantial contraction, but demand remains weak. The profit situation has deteriorated significantly compared with October. In the future, the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level after a rebound from oversold conditions [45][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, pig prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors; in the medium - term, pig prices are likely to decline rather than rise under high supply pressure; in the long - term, as capacity optimization progresses, the supply - demand relationship will improve, and far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction. Currently, the supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and although demand increases with the drop in temperature, it cannot offset the supply increase. The oversupply situation is difficult to improve quickly, and pig prices may remain under pressure with the futures market likely to oscillate at a low level. Key factors to monitor include the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, terminal consumption, pig weight reduction, pig slaughter, and secondary fattening [8][115][116]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: In November 2025, the main contract of live - hog futures LH2601 traded between 11,300 - 12,050 yuan/ton. It rose slightly, then declined and rebounded, showing a wide - range oscillation with a significant monthly decline. As of November 28, 2025, the contract dropped 350 yuan/ton, a 2.96% decrease, closing at 11,465 yuan/ton [6][12]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the national average live - hog price was 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous month, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of November 28, 2025, the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of piglets was 24.14 yuan/kg, down 0.99 yuan/kg from the previous month. The prices of 20 - kg foreign - bred ternary piglets in some regions increased slightly compared to the previous month [16][20][24]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live - hog supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 13,929 thousand heads; the global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 505 thousand tons [31]. - **China**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live - hog supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 11,781 thousand heads; the pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 592 thousand tons [38]. Supply - Side Situation - **Live - Hog Inventory**: As of September 2025, the national live - hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, at a historically low level [44]. - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national breeding sows inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, at the lowest level in the past five years [49]. - **Live - Hog Slaughter**: In the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live - hog slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.85%, at a relatively high level in the past five years [54]. - **Pork Output**: As of the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 3.02%, at the highest level in the past five years [60]. - **Pork Imports**: In September 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 70 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%, at the lowest level in the past five years [64]. Demand - Side Situation - **Slaughter Volume of Designated Slaughter Enterprises**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of China's designated live - hog slaughter enterprises was 38.34 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million heads or 6.98%, at the highest level in the past five years [70]. - **Pork and Main Meat Output**: As of September 30, 2025, the national cumulative output of main meats was 731.2 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 436.8 million tons, accounting for 59.74% [74]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.43 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month; the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.29 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of October 2025, the feed output was 29.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, at the highest level in the past five years [77][83]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - **Profit from Purchasing Piglets for Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 248.82 yuan per head, at the lowest level in the past five years [89]. - **Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 147.99 yuan per head, at a relatively low level in the past five years [95]. - **Profit from Broiler Chicken Breeding**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 0.86 yuan per bird, at an intermediate level in the past five years [100]. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of November 28, 2025, China's pig - grain ratio was 5.1. The pig - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 recently, triggering a second - level early warning of excessive price decline, and the state has carried out multiple state reserve operations [105]. Recent Policies and Conferences in the Pig Industry - **Stable Livestock Production Promotion Meeting**: Held from November 18 - 19, 2025, in Bengbu, Anhui. It emphasized ensuring market stability of major livestock products, accelerating the comprehensive regulation of live - hog production capacity, preventing and controlling epidemic risks, and strengthening quality and safety supervision [108][109]. - **Executive Meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs**: On November 21, 2025, it passed in principle the "Opinions on Strengthening Comprehensive Capacity Regulation to Promote High - Quality Development of the Pig Industry", aiming to build a high - quality development pattern of the pig industry, improve competitiveness across the chain, and guide enterprises of different scales to develop [110]. Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Price**: In November 2025, the national average live - hog price increased slightly from the previous month, the price of binary sows remained unchanged, and the price of piglets decreased slightly [111]. - **Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025, but the actual capacity reduction was slower than expected, and the supply pressure remained. However, national policies are conducive to the long - term market. The decline in the inventory of breeding sows in October indicates accelerated capacity reduction, supporting far - month contracts [113]. - **Inventory**: Recently, the low pork price and seasonal demand led to an increase in the product digestion of slaughterhouses, but the slow start of seasonal demand such as curing caused inventory to shift from the breeding end to the slaughter end. However, slaughterhouses are actively reducing inventory before the Spring Festival, so the inventory may decline slightly [113]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises increased. With the drop in temperature, consumption demand recovered to some extent, but it may not be sufficient to digest the supply [114]. - **Cost - Profit**: In November 2025, the breeding profit continued to decline, and the pig - breeding industry fell into deep losses [114]. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main live - hog contract will oscillate in a low - level range in December. For unilateral trading, consider going long at low prices with a light position; for arbitrage, maintain the idea of reverse arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [9][117][118].

美联储 12 月降息概率增加，沪铜或震荡偏强运行 内容提要 美联储12月降息概率增加 铜月报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 旧金山联储主席戴利近日表示，她支持美联储在下个月的会议上 降低利率。她认为，就业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀再度飙升更大， 且管理难度更高。戴利指出："在劳动力市场方面，我不像以前那样 有信心能够抢占先机。它现在足够脆弱，面临发生非线性突变的风险。" 相比之下，她提到通胀爆发的风险较低，因为关税驱动的成本上涨比 今年早些时候预期的更为温和。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 截止11月底，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月会议降 息25个基点的概率约为80%，而仅几天前这一概率还仅为30%。 精废铜价差维持高位 中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）维持低位。中国精炼 铜产量环比下降，同比增速放缓。废铜价格涨幅弱于现货铜价，精废 铜价差维持高位。铜材产量同比、环比均下降，电网建设投资增长放 缓。 COMEX 铜持续累库 沪铜库存下降明显，LME铜库存出现增长，COMEX铜继续累库。综 合来看，铜价可能以震荡偏强行情为主。套利机会有限。期权合 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. The dual pressures of demand contraction due to the concentrated cold repair of float glass and the expectation of new capacity launch still exist. However, the growth of the export market and the increased demand for light soda ash in sectors such as lithium carbonate bring marginal improvements. The cost support and the pattern of loose supply - demand will continue to compete, and the price movement space is limited [8][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range between 1161 - 1194 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on November 28, 2025, the main contract rose 7 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.60%, closing at 1177 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of November 27, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 698,100 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15% from the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, down 2.60% from the previous week [7][9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 1.75% from Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 28,100 tons [7][14]. - **Shipment**: On November 27, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 3.65% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of November 27, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 38.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry - **Float Glass Industry**: As of November 27, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the 20th. The weekly output from November 21 - 27 was 1.1039 million tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week and 0.86% from the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 941,000 weight boxes or 1.49% from the previous week, and an increase of 27.23% from the same period last year [26][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a low - level volatile pattern. The spot market quotes remained stable, but the futures market was under pressure due to the marginal weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply decreased slightly this week, but future supply pressure will increase with the expected December launch of the 2.8 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuangxing Energy Phase II. Demand for light soda ash is stable, while heavy soda ash demand is under pressure due to the increased cold repair of float glass production lines [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level. The combined - alkali method profit improved slightly, and the ammonia - alkali method profit remained stable at a low level. The industry as a whole is still in the loss range [39]. - **Outlook and Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, not to short excessively in the context of industry losses, and pay attention to cost support levels. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, consider selling the wide - straddle option strategy [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong, with the main contract price rising in a volatile manner and hitting a new high at the end of the month. The spot price first declined and then rose sharply, with regional supply - demand differentiation leading the market. The market's bullish sentiment was strong, but towards the end of the month, the upward momentum slowed. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Caution is needed for a potential market decline [5][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong. As of November 28, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a trading volume of 550,428 lots and an open interest of 959,620 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 447.75 cents/bushel, up 0.56% [5][12][17]. (2) Spot Price - In November, the national average corn price was 2,237 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In the Northeast, prices were strong; in North China, prices were high due to tight supply - demand; in the sales areas, prices continued to rise. The price increases in different regions were significant [7][21][23]. (3) Basis - As of November 28, the basis of the Dalian corn main contract was 46 yuan/ton. In November, the basis recovered from a low and expanded, with the increase in spot prices exceeding that of futures prices [25]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Multiple aspects of information are included, such as China's corn imports from Russia, grain production in India, corn consumption and exports in the US, grain exports in Ukraine, corn planting progress in Argentina and Brazil, and corn procurement results of Sinograin [27][28][31]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Sinograin Corn Auction - In November, Sinograin conducted 74 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 1,168,999 tons and an actual成交 volume of 415,790 tons, a成交 rate of 35.57%. It also conducted 4 corn sales auctions, with all 8,539 tons planned for trading being sold. There were no two - way trading or imported corn auctions [43][45]. (2) North - South Port Corn Inventory - As of November 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.156 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9025 million tons. The domestic and foreign trade corn inventories at Guangdong Port were 284,000 tons and 315,000 tons respectively [51]. (3) Feed Enterprise Inventory - As of November 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, up 3.73 days from October, a month - on - month increase of 15.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [55]. (4) Feed Market - In October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, down 4.2% month - on - month and up 3.6% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed decreased year - on - year [58]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Inventory - As of November 26, the total corn inventory of major domestic corn processing enterprises was 2.698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% [62]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Consumption - In November 2025, the estimated corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 5.93 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons from the previous month and 50,000 tons from the same period last year [67]. (7) Deep - processing Enterprise Startup Rate - In November, the startup rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise. The total output of 60 corn starch production enterprises was 1.3885 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 109,500 tons. The startup rate was 64.03%, up 5.05% month - on - month and down 6.3% year - on - year [71]. (8) Deep - processing Enterprise Profit - In November, the profits of corn starch enterprises improved. The average profits of corn starch hedging by - products in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month [77]. (9) Import and Export - In October 2025, the corn import volume was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500.00% and a year - on - year increase of 43.10%. The export volume was only 52,607 tons [80]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - In November, the average national corn starch price was 2,690 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from October. The firm corn price provided support, and the decline in syrup demand was offset by other industries. The rising prices of cassava and wheat starch boosted the substitution demand for corn starch [88]. (2) Pigs - In November, the average pig slaughter price was 11.67 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from October, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.57%. The market was in a downward trend, and although there was some support from pickling demand in December, supply - side pressure remained [92]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - The corn futures and spot prices rose in tandem in November, but the upward momentum slowed towards the end of the month. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Attention should be paid to the potential market decline. - Operational strategy: For single - side trading, gradually reduce long positions to avoid high - level callback risks; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][93][94].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillation trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [6][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures mainly showed an oscillating market, ranging from around 85,450 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 86,850 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the price of LME copper futures showed an oscillating trend, with the contract price running around 10,660 - 10,848 US dollars/ton [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - The minutes of the Fed's October monetary policy meeting showed that due to the moderate economic expansion and the gradual cooling of the labor market without a sharp deterioration, Fed officials had obvious differences on whether to further cut interest rates in December. There were also differences in opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Some officials thought that without considering the impact of tariffs, the current inflation level was close to the Fed's target value, while more officials believed that the overall inflation level had been continuously higher than the target value and there were few signs that it could fall back to the 2% target level in a timely and sustainable manner [5][14][47]. - CME's "FedWatch" showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 29.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 70.2%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was 49.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 36.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was 14.5% [5][15][47]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 85,870 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 85,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 610 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 86,490 yuan/ton, 86,460 yuan/ton, 86,600 yuan/ton, and 86,570 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - As of November 21, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained around a rise of 60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [18]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - As of November 20, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.82 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.37 US cents/pound. As of October 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [24]. - As of October 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% [30]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of November 21, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,603 tons, an increase of 1,196 tons from the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 17,375 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6%. As of November 20, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 398,513 tons, an increase of 6,835 tons from the previous trading day [34]. - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 112,200 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 17,200 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 45,600 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [34].