Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by the geopolitical tension caused by the US and Israel's raid on Iran, methanol futures rose significantly. As of Friday afternoon's close, the methanol weighted price closed at 2,558 yuan/ton, a 16.86% increase from the previous week. The main factor boosting methanol currently is the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, and the focus of the conflict is the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem in the Strait of Hormuz is not substantially resolved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted. Methanol is likely to continue to run strongly in the short - term, and long - position operations on methanol futures and buying methanol call options can be considered [5][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to geopolitical tension, methanol futures rose significantly. The weighted methanol price closed at 2,558 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 16.86% from the previous week. In the spot market, after the Spring Festival, downstream demand and trucking pick - up gradually recovered, and the import apparent demand increased. Port methanol inventory remained high. Port methanol prices fluctuated greatly due to international instability. In the mainland, affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, port prices rose and spread to the mainland, with strong market sentiment, but then cooled quickly. The price range in the main production area of Ordos North Line was 1,815 - 1,988 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price range was 2,115 - 2,285 yuan/ton [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,047,465 tons, a decrease of 23,980 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 91.65%, a 1.15% decrease from the previous week [15] - **Downstream Demand**: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: The MTO device in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 38.95%, unchanged from the previous week; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 2.85%; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was stable; the methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 80.94%, a decrease; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 28.72%, an increase [17][19] - **Inventory**: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, a 3.19% increase from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 295,200 tons, a 104.91% increase from the previous period. The port sample inventory was 1,443,500 tons, a 0.22% decrease from the previous period. The overall performance was inventory accumulation in East China and inventory reduction in South China [20][25] - **Profit**: Last week, due to the sharp rise in commodity prices caused by the sudden escalation of the geopolitical conflict, and the raw material price increase was weaker than that of methanol, the profitability of various production processes improved significantly. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was - 185.10 yuan/ton, a 20.96% increase; in Shandong, it was - 106.10 yuan/ton, a 26.42% increase; in Shanxi, it was - 168.30 yuan/ton, a 25.07% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 199.00 yuan/ton, a 101.01% increase; the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest was - 248.00 yuan/ton, a 14.48% increase [27][28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Next week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to resume production than to be shut down for maintenance. It is estimated that China's methanol production will be about 2.0485 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.69%, with an increase in production [29] - **Downstream Demand**: In the short - term, there are no plans to change the MTO devices of domestic enterprises, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable. The dimethyl ether, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and chloride industries are expected to increase their capacity utilization rates. It is expected that the inventory of inland factories will decrease, and the prices will remain relatively firm. Attention should be paid to the transportation capacity [30][32][33] - **Port Inventory**: This week, the arrival of foreign ships at ports will decrease, but there may be some inland supplies. Demand may continue to recover. Overall, the port methanol inventory is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the unloading speed and pick - up volume [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose by 2.33%. The iron ore port inventory is high, and the fundamental supply and demand are relatively loose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict on the macro - front, the sharp rise in energy prices has led to strong market expectations of inflation, and the increase in shipping prices may support iron ore in the medium and long term. Overall, the loose fundamentals limit the upside space of iron ore, while inflation expectations limit the downside space. Iron ore will generally fluctuate, and the price center may rise slightly [4][5][30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific content provided in the text - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port is mentioned, but no specific price data is given [11] - **Position Analysis**: Futures seat net position analysis is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [12] 3.2 Important Market Information - Last week, due to the Middle East conflict, in the commodity futures market, crude oil and natural gas rose significantly. WTI crude oil rose by 36.18%, and natural gas rose by 11.30%. Most non - ferrous and precious metal prices fell. In the global stock market, Chinese and European and American stock markets all declined, with half of the countries' stock markets falling by more than 5%. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 98.86, up 1.24%. In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. 95% of coal - fired power generation capacity, 90% of steel production capacity, 3.6 billion tons of coking capacity, and 4.7 billion tons of cement clinker capacity have completed ultra - low emission transformation. In late February, key steel enterprises produced 16.22 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 15.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.897 million tons, a 2.9% increase in daily output month - on - month; and 16.89 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.111 million tons, an 11.0% increase in daily output month - on - month [15] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipments were 61.112 million tons, a decrease of 10.281 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 18.891 million tons, a decrease of 8.744 million tons from the first half of the month [20] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The text mentions 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal output and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw procurement volume, but no specific data analysis is provided [24][25] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country is 171.1786 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 259,000 tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.1108 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons; the number of ships at the port is 112, an increase of 5. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country is 178.9483 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,300 tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2698 million tons, an increase of 134,500 tons. Mysteel's survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 77.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the steel mill profitability rate is 38.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.15%; the average daily hot metal output is 2.2759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 56,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 29,200 tons [29] 3.6 Market Outlook - The iron ore port inventory is high, and the fundamental supply and demand are relatively loose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict on the macro - front, the sharp rise in energy prices has led to strong market expectations of inflation, and the increase in shipping prices may support iron ore in the medium and long term. Overall, the loose fundamentals limit the upside space of iron ore, while inflation expectations limit the downside space. Iron ore will generally fluctuate, and the price center may rise slightly [30] 3.7 Operation Strategies - **Unilateral**: Treat it with a mid - term view of being long on dips and with a bias towards a bullish trend in the range - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Wait and see [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, polyolefins are likely to be strongly boosted by geopolitical tensions. As the second quarter is the peak demand season for polyolefins, they are expected to perform strongly in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level China - In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 reached 9%, a two - year high. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In January 2026, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, and rose 0.4% month - on - month [9]. - The latest macroeconomic data shows that monetary easing is intensifying. The improvement in PPI indicates better demand and the initial success of the national anti - involution policy, which is conducive to improving corporate profits and demand. With continuous loose policies, the domestic macro - level is expected to continue its recovery [11][12]. International - In January 2026, the US CPI decreased 0.3% from the previous month to 2.4%. In December 2025, the Eurozone CPI decreased 0.1% from the previous month to 2%. The Eurozone faces greater economic recession pressure with lower inflation. The relatively low inflation in Europe and the US is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [13]. - In January 2026, the US manufacturing PMI rose 4.7 percentage points to 52.6%, and the unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.3%. Although the decline in US inflation is conducive to interest rate cuts, the improvement in manufacturing PMI and the decrease in unemployment rate reduce the urgency of the Fed to cut interest rates, but it is still likely to continue the easing cycle [15][17]. - The sudden attack by the US and Israel on Iran has led to a tense situation. Iran has counter - attacked, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC + may consider further increasing production, but the main problem may be transportation. If Iran disrupts the supply through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may soar, which will strongly boost polyolefins [18][19][20]. Fundamental - level PE - In February 2026, polyethylene supply decreased. The capacity utilization rate was 87.63%, a 3.79 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and the output was 290.67 tons, a 4.98% decrease from the previous period, mainly due to 3 fewer production days [20]. - In February 2026, polyethylene downstream demand declined. Affected by the Spring Festival, the overall downstream industry's average opening rate was 21.6%, a 18.26 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The average opening rate of the PE packaging film industry was 26.04%, a 20% decrease from the previous month, and the overall opening rate of the agricultural film decreased 18.3% month - on - month [23]. - In February 2026, the social inventory of polyethylene increased. The social sample warehouse inventory at the end of February was 59.78 tons, a 11.28 - ton increase from the previous month, a 23.26% increase. During the Spring Festival, production enterprises maintained high - load production while downstream factories were on holiday, leading to passive inventory accumulation [25]. - In February 2026, due to the Spring Festival, polyethylene supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased. The price was generally weak. The average price of low - pressure film was 7463 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the previous month; the average price of high - pressure film was 8543 yuan/ton, a 3.52% decrease from the previous month; the average price of linear film was 6871 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase from the previous month [27]. PP - In February 2026, PP supply decreased. The total output of polypropylene was 311.52 tons, a 32.85 - ton decrease from January 2026, a 9.54% decrease. There was no new capacity put into operation, and the overall production enterprise opening rate changed little. The total output decreased due to 3 fewer days in the month [28]. - In February 2026, PP downstream demand declined. The apparent consumption of polypropylene decreased 9.74% month - on - month. The opening rates of injection molding, modification, BOPP, and pipes decreased significantly, with decreases of 21.29%, 15.02%, 10.29%, and 10.29% respectively. The average opening rate of downstream industries was 39.14%, a 13.43 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [29]. - In February 2026, both the inventory of PP production enterprises and traders increased. At the end of February 2026, the inventory of production enterprises was 73.99 tons, an 84.56% increase from the end of the previous month. The inventory of traders was 24.97 tons, a 36.15% increase from the end of the previous month. The Spring Festival led to inventory accumulation and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [32]. - In February 2026, affected by the Spring Festival, PP also showed a situation of decreased supply and demand and increased inventory. But boosted by the positive macro - outlook, the market was in high - level consolidation. The national average price of drawn wire was 6654 yuan/ton, an 185 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month, a 2.86% increase [35]. Market Outlook PE - In March 2026, the domestic capacity utilization rate of polyethylene is expected to decrease 2.41% month - on - month, and the total supply will increase 6.7% month - on - month. On the demand side, the opening rates of traditional downstream industries such as packaging film and agricultural film are expected to gradually recover, and exports are expected to increase 61.9% month - on - month. The total demand is expected to increase 8% month - on - month. Overall, supply pressure will be relieved, demand will moderately recover, and the polyethylene market price is expected to rise slightly [36]. PP - In March 2026, polypropylene enters the traditional peak demand season of "Golden March and Silver April". Supply and demand will shift from surplus to tight balance, but the concentrated inventory reduction and the late resumption of work in downstream factories compared to upstream lead to a low negative value of the supply - demand gap. In March, the output of polypropylene will increase rapidly month - on - month, and with continuous inventory reduction pressure, imports will increase. However, as exports enter the peak season, it is expected to continue the net export trend. In March, consumption in all downstream fields of polypropylene will increase, and demand will dominate the market trend [36]. - From April to May, as polypropylene enters the seasonal maintenance peak season, supply pressure will weaken. Demand will continue to improve, and the inventory of polypropylene is expected to be smoothly reduced in the second quarter. The negative value of the supply - demand gap will reach the peak of the year, which is expected to strongly support the market price [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the domestic stock index futures market showed an overall oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation. After the Spring Festival, the market's trading activity rebounded significantly, and the small and medium - cap index futures continued to be strong. The bond futures all closed higher last month. In March, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation with structural opportunities, and the volatility may rise compared to February. The small - cap style may still have a relative advantage, but risks such as short - term over - rise and style switching due to geopolitical conflicts need to be watched out for [5][7][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, the domestic stock index futures market showed an oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation. Before the Spring Festival, trading was light, and after the Spring Festival, trading activity rebounded. The small and medium - cap index futures (IC, IM) were strong, while the large - cap blue - chip futures (IF, IH) were weak. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures rose significantly, and the SSE 50 index futures fell slightly. All bond futures closed higher last month [5][6][7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The first, second, and third - industry added values increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. The average annual urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, and the year - end rate was 5.1%. The total number of migrant workers was 301.15 million, a 0.5% increase. The CPI was flat compared to the previous year, while the PPI, PPIRM, and agricultural product producer prices decreased by 2.6%, 3.0%, and 3.7% respectively [8][9][13] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of February 27, the PE and PB of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were provided, along with their respective percentile positions. The overall valuation of the market was at a relatively high historical level, and the small - cap index futures had more prominent valuation pressure [14] 3.4 Other Data - The concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond spread were introduced. The "Buffett Indicator" was mentioned, and as of February 27, 2026, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 93.20%, with a high percentile position in historical and recent 10 - year data [25][28][29] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - At the macro - level, the policy is in a loose tone, and the US - Iran conflict has become a new variable. At the valuation level, the overall valuation is high, and the small - cap valuation pressure is more prominent. In March, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation with structural opportunities, and the small - cap style may still have an advantage, but risks need to be watched out for [31][32] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For unilateral trading, participate cautiously and lay out on dips. For small - cap index futures, pay attention but do not chase highs. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on IH and short on IM with strict stop - losses. For options, use the covered call strategy to increase returns and buy out - of - the - money put options for hedging [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to the weak fundamentals of methanol, methanol futures rose first and then fell. As of Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,189 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The supply of methanol is still under pressure, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The theoretical profit of methanol production from most process routes has slightly improved. Overall, the situation of loose supply and demand of methanol has not improved substantially, and the fundamentals remain weak [5][6][10]. - On February 28, the US - Israel raid on Iran and Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz will significantly boost oil prices. It is expected that Iran's methanol exports to China will be significantly reduced in the future, and the short - term supply of methanol may be significantly reduced, which may lead to a significant increase in methanol prices [7]. - Affected by the geopolitical tension, methanol may run strongly in the short term. Investors can consider a long - position operation in methanol futures and also consider a strategy of buying methanol call options [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures rose first and then fell due to weak fundamentals. The weighted methanol price closed at 2,189 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol inventory increased slightly after the Spring Festival. The spot market in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,180 - 2,260 yuan/ton. In the inland market, the main production areas focused on inventory reduction, and the downstream was cautious. The price in the Ordos North Line in the main production area fluctuated between 1,837 - 1,867 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying fluctuated between 2,160 - 2,170 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamentals Analysis - **Production**: From February 20 - 26, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,073,145 tons, an increase of 1,340 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 92.80%, a 0.06% increase from the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of methanol - downstream olefins was stable. As of February 26, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 38.95%, the same as the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde decreased, while that of chlorides increased [14][16]. - **Inventory**: As of February 25, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 535,300 tons, a 57.32% increase from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 205,800 tons, a 34.69% decrease from the previous period. The port sample inventory was 1,446,700 tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous period [18][22]. - **Profit**: From February 13 - 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of most process routes for methanol production improved slightly. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 233.20 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; in Shandong, it was - 137.70 yuan/ton, a 20.79% decrease; in Shanxi, it was - 224.60 yuan/ton, a 10.87% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 99.00 yuan/ton, an 11.24% increase; the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Next week, there may be more methanol device overhauls than restarts in China. It is expected that the methanol production will be about 2.071 billion tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.71%, with a decline in production [27]. - **Downstream Demand**: In the short term, there are no plans to change the MTO devices. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde are expected to increase, while that of chlorides may decrease [28][29][31]. - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises will be 451,200 tons this week, a decline from the previous period. The port inventory may continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the unloading speed and the recovery of the提货 volume [31]. - **Overall Situation**: Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of methanol are still weak. The support mainly comes from the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. The subsequent trend of methanol needs to closely follow the guidance of geopolitics and crude oil [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels, with limited arbitrage opportunities and an advice to hold off on options contracts [4][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In February, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated at high levels, ranging from approximately 98,060 yuan/ton to 106,090 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the first half of the year is low. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by March is 4%, with a 96% chance of maintaining the current rate. By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 17.3%, 82.1% for maintaining, and 0.6% for a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43% [2][9][26] 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 Refined Copper Production Growth - As of February 26, 2026, China's copper smelter refining fees were - 5.01 cents/pound, and rough smelting fees were - 50.96 dollars/kiloton. Copper processing fees remained at a low level [12] 3.2 High Spread between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of February 26, 2026, the price of refined copper in Shanghai was 102,000 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan was 89,050 yuan/ton, with a spread of 4,045 yuan/ton. Seasonally, the current spread is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15] 4. Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 391,529 tons, an increase of 119,054 tons from the previous week. As of February 26, LME copper inventory was 253,600 tons, an increase of 3,950 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 5.19%. As of February 27, COMEX copper inventory was 601,541 tons, an increase of 493 tons from the previous trading day. As of February 26, Shanghai bonded area inventory was 88,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous week, Guangdong area inventory was 93,200 tons, and Wuxi area inventory was 114,100 tons [19] 5. Outlook 5.1 Factors Affecting Price Trends - Key factors influencing copper prices include US policy (Fed rate cuts may be further delayed), supply (refined copper processing fees remain extremely low, and the spread between refined and scrap copper remains high), and inventory (COMEX copper continues to accumulate significantly, and Shanghai copper inventory rises notably) [25] 5.2 Forecast - The Fed's delayed rate cuts are bearish for copper prices. China's copper smelter fees have increased slightly but remain low. Refined copper production has grown rapidly, the spread between refined and scrap copper remains high, and copper product output has decreased year - on - year. Overall, copper prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead prices are likely to trend in a volatile manner, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2604 of Shanghai lead futures was mainly in a volatile range from around 16,620 yuan/ton to 16,980 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and tobacco prices decreased 0.2% year - on - year, affecting the CPI to drop 0.06 percentage points. Among food items, egg prices dropped 9.2%, livestock meat prices dropped 6.1%, while fresh vegetable prices rose 6.9% and fresh fruit prices rose 3.2% [12] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of February 26, 2026, the average price of Grade 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,540 yuan/ton, 16,610 yuan/ton, and 16,540 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of Grade 1 lead was around a discount of - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - In December 2025, the global lead mine output was 402.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.2 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. As of February 13, 2026, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 100 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 200 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee in Kunming was 190 yuan/metal ton. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 71.9 million tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from the previous month and 5.3% year - on - year, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [22] 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of February 27, 2026, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,667 tons, an increase of 8,128 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 1.84% [28] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The national consumer price index showed certain changes in January 2026. Global lead mine output remained at a relatively high level. Refined lead supply continued to be in surplus. Lead processing fees increased slightly, and prices were at the bottom. Shanghai lead inventory increased significantly and was at a relatively high level in recent years. The LME lead inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in recent years [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the 2605 contract of rebar declined by 2.54%. In mid-February, the key steel enterprises produced 20.29 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.029 million tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous period. Their steel inventory reached 18.12 million tons, a 19.9% increase from the previous decade, and a 28.2% increase from the beginning of the year. In January 2026, the global crude steel output of 69 countries/regions was 1.473 billion tons, a 6.5% year-on-year decrease, with China's output at 75.27 million tons, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease. In February 2026, the PMI of the Hebei steel industry was 48.8%, a 4.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month, falling below the boom-bust line. After the Lantern Festival, the output of rebar will rise. In March, steel prices are expected to fluctuate due to multiple factors such as the escalation of the US-Iran situation, optimistic policy expectations of domestic important meetings, cost support, and post-Lantern Festival demand tests. The recommended strategies for single-side trading, arbitrage, and options are all to wait and see [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K-line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented, but no specific price analysis is provided [7]. - **Spot Price**: As of February 28, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, also unchanged [14]. - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [16]. Important Market Information - As of February 25, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 8.9%, a 1.5 percentage point increase year-on-year; the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, a 3.7 percentage point increase year-on-year; and the fund availability rate was 29%, a 9.4 percentage point increase year-on-year. The resumption rate of real estate projects was 8.2%, and that of non-real estate projects was 9.2% [19]. Supply - Side Situation - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the rebar output are mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [20][24][25]. Demand - Side Situation - As of January 2026, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, a 4% decrease from the previous period; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing managers' index was 47.1, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. Information on commercial housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion floor areas, and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw procurement volume is also presented, but no specific analysis is provided [31]. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 1.93 percentage point increase year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.45%, a 1.05 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 1.87 percentage point increase year-on-year; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a 1.30 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 10.39 percentage point decrease year-on-year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a 27,900 - ton increase from the previous week and a 53,400 - ton increase year-on-year [38][39]. 后市展望 - After the Lantern Festival, independent electric arc furnace steel mills will resume production, and rebar output will increase. In March, steel prices are expected to fluctuate due to multiple factors [40]. Operation Strategy - Single - side trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of natural rubber are intertwined with both positive and negative factors. Affected by geopolitical factors, the market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [95]. - The natural rubber futures main contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. For trading strategies, consider a bullish approach for single - side trading, a long 2605 and short 2609 contract for arbitrage, and hold off on options for now [96]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: In February, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2605 ranged from 15,835 to 17,370 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating upward trend with a significant monthly increase. As of February 27, 2026, it closed at 17,155 yuan/ton, up 795 points or 4.86% for the month [6][15]. - **Spot Price**: As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,200 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 17,200 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton [19]. - **Port Arrival Price**: As of February 27, the Qingdao natural rubber port arrival price was 2,460 US dollars/ton, up 260 US dollars/ton from the previous month [23]. - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded slightly compared to the previous month. As of February 27, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 205 yuan/ton, an expansion of 95 yuan/ton from the previous month [27]. Important Market Information - **Geopolitical Events**: On February 28, local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. Iran retaliated by launching missile strikes on Tel Aviv, Israel, and several US military bases in the Middle East. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing the oil tanker transportation in the Strait to come to a standstill [31]. - **Economic Data**: The US 1 - month PPI and core PPI showed year - on - year and month - on - month increases. The US 2025 Q4 real GDP annualized initial value had a slower growth rate compared to Q3. The US 2025 December core PCE price index also increased year - on - year and month - on - month [32][33]. - **Automobile Industry**: In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month, with production increasing slightly year - on - year and sales decreasing year - on - year. The heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in February 2026 decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [34][36][37]. - **Natural Rubber Supply**: The ANRPC member countries' total rubber production in December 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that the global natural rubber will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a supply gap of about 400,000 tons [35]. Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of December 31, 2025, the production of major natural rubber - producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Vietnam increased slightly month - on - month, while China's production decreased significantly month - on - month. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in December 2025 was 1.0077 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons or 4.16% from the previous month [45]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. The cumulative production was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3% [49][52]. - **New Inflatable Rubber Tire Imports**: As of December 31, 2025, China's imports of new inflatable rubber tires were 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.01% [56]. Demand - side Situation - **Automobile Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of February 26, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire automobile tire enterprises was 34.56%, a decrease of 40.28% from the previous month; the operating rate of full - steel tire automobile tire enterprises was 29.17%, a decrease of 33.27% from the previous month [60]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: As of January 31, 2026, China's monthly automobile production was 2.4499 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 0.01% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.67%. The monthly sales were 2.3465 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.18% and a month - on - month decrease of 28.29% [63][66]. - **Heavy - truck Sales**: As of January 31, 2026, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 105,352 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.98% and a month - on - month increase of 2.58% [69]. - **Tire Outer Tube Production**: As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly tire outer tube production was 106.263 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [72]. - **New Inflatable Rubber Tire Exports**: As of December 31, 2025, China's exports of new inflatable rubber tires were 58.43 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 3.29% [78]. - **Global Automobile Sales**: In January 2026, the automobile sales in some countries showed different trends. For example, Japan's automobile sales increased, while Germany's and the US's sales decreased to varying degrees [81]. Inventory - side Situation - **Futures Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 114,470 tons, an increase of 3,540 tons from the previous month [86]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.366 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons or 5.4%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 926,000 tons, an increase of 7.1%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons or 10.05% [90][91]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Domestic rubber - producing areas have fully stopped tapping, and overseas areas such as Vietnam and Thailand will enter the non - tapping period in March. The pressure on the supply side has been alleviated, and the rising raw material purchase prices provide obvious support for rubber prices [92][93]. - **Demand**: During the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rates of tire enterprises dropped significantly. After the holiday, as downstream enterprises resumed work, the operating rates increased significantly, and the overall market trading atmosphere gradually recovered. In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month, but heavy - truck sales increased year - on - year [92][93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly month - on - month. China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, and the inventory accumulation rate increased [92][93]. 后市展望 - The natural rubber futures main contract in China showed a trend of first falling and then rising in February, with a significant overall increase. In the future, geopolitical factors may lead to a sharp rebound in overseas crude oil prices, boosting the chemical sector and potentially driving the rubber sector to be stronger. The supply - side pressure is alleviated, and the cost side supports rubber prices. The demand side is also supported by the resumption of work in downstream industries. However, the obvious inventory accumulation trend of social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao exerts pressure on spot prices [93][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of the corn market are strongly supportive, and both the futures and spot markets are warming up. The short - term corn futures price is expected to remain strong due to factors such as slow grain sales progress at the grass - roots level, tight supply of high - quality grain, and concentrated replenishment demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises after the holiday [1][7][73] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: After the holiday, the corn futures and spot markets maintained a strong trend. As of last Friday's close, the main corn futures contract C2603 closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The CBOT corn market oscillated upward last week, and as of last week's close, the May corn benchmark contract was reported at 448.25 cents/bushel, up 1.07% [4][12][18] - **Spot Price**: Last week, the national average weekly price of corn was 2340 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Corn prices in Northeast China were strong, rising 10 - 30 yuan/ton. In North China, prices first rose and then stabilized. Prices in the sales areas and ports increased significantly [6][22][23] - **Basis**: As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - main contract was 20 yuan/ton, the same as before the holiday [27] 3.2 Relevant Information Review - **Weather and Crop Progress**: Rainfall helped improve the condition of Argentina's 2025/26 corn crops. Brazil's second - season corn planting progress was 50% as of February 19, and the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central - southern region reached 28% [28] - **Production and Export Forecasts**: The IGC predicted that the global grain output in 2025/26 would be 2.46 billion tons. Russia's 2026 agricultural product export volume might reach $43.5 billion. Ukraine's corn output was expected to increase by 11.2% in 2026 [28][30][32] - **Market Transactions**: Many countries and regions had corn - related procurement and trading activities, such as China's Taiwan Province, South Korea, and Turkey [29][30][33] 3.3 Corn Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **North Port Corn Inventory**: As of February 20, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.734 million tons, a decrease of 248,000 tons from before the holiday. The shipping volume in the four northern ports that week was 263,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from the previous week [40] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the corn replenishment demand of feed enterprises began to be gradually released. As of February 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.29 days, a decrease of 0.96 days from before the holiday [44] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: The corn inventory of domestic deep - processing enterprises decreased significantly last week. As of February 25, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.852 million tons, a decrease of 15.8% from the previous week [48] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Consumption**: From February 19 to February 25, 2026, the main corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed a total of 1.1249 million tons of corn, a decrease of 10,400 tons from the previous week [52] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Startup**: After the holiday, deep - processing enterprises gradually resumed work, and the industry startup rate gradually increased. From February 19 to February 25, the total corn processing volume in the country was 518,700 tons, an increase of 33,300 tons from before the holiday [56] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Profit**: National corn starch enterprises were still in the loss range. The hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from before the holiday [60] - **Main Producing Area Grain Sales Progress**: As of February 26, the national main producing area farmers' corn sales progress was 66%, a 1% increase from the previous week, still 4% slower than the same period last year [63] 3.4 Related Product Situation - **Corn Starch**: After the holiday, the corn price continued to rise. Under the transmission of cost pressure, deep - processing enterprises raised prices periodically. Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2727 yuan/ton, a 13 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week [67] - **Pigs**: After the holiday, the national pig price was weak. The market entered the traditional off - season of consumption. As of February 27, the national average pig slaughter price was 10.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.78 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a decline of 6.74% [72] 3.5 Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - **Market Outlook**: The corn futures price broke through the previous high again near the weekend, showing a strong performance. In the short term, the corn futures price is expected to remain strong [73] - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt an oscillating and bullish mindset; no suggestions for arbitrage and options trading [8]