Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the egg market was in a seasonal off - season with weak demand and high supply. Although the price got short - term support from downstream stocking, the supply - side pressure remained, and the short - term upward space of the futures price was limited. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold a bearish view on the medium - to - long - term at high prices [7][8][9]. 3) Summaries According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review - **Futures Price**: In October, the main egg futures contract changed from 2511 to 2512. The lowest price dropped to 2880 yuan/500 kg, and then rebounded. As of October 31, the main JD2512 contract closed at 3146 yuan/500 kg, down 0.29% [5][13]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last month was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.1683% month - on - month; in the main selling areas, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.1371% month - on - month. In October, the egg market entered the seasonal off - season, with weak demand and high supply [7][17]. - **Old Hen Price**: The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas in October was 4.39 yuan/jin, down 0.0559% month - on - month. The price was under pressure at the beginning of the month and rebounded slightly in the second half of the month [22]. - **Chick Price**: The average price of commercial laying hen chicks in October was 2.75 yuan/chick, down 0.0678% month - on - month and 0.2318% year - on - year. The downstream demand was weak, and the price continued to be weak [25]. II. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national laying hen inventory was about 1.311 billion, down 0.15% month - on - month and up 8.8% year - on - year. The new production capacity decreased year - on - year due to low replenishment in June [31]. - **Chick Sales**: In October, the total chick sales were 35.88 million, down 5.08% month - on - month. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 40% - 50%. The weak demand was due to negative replenishment sentiment [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: In October, the total slaughter of old hens in sample points was 2.6675 million, up 8.69% month - on - month. The average slaughter age was 497 days, 2 days earlier than in September. The loss of the egg - laying industry led to accelerated culling [40]. - **Demand Side** - **Arrival of Trucks in Selling Areas**: In October, the arrival of trucks in Beijing increased by 2.86% month - on - month to 396 trucks, while in Guangdong, it decreased by 2.12% month - on - month to 2175 trucks [44]. - **Sales in Selling Areas**: In October, the total sales in selling areas were 28.09 thousand tons, down 1.65% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year [47]. - **Egg - Laying Industry Cost and Profit**: In October, the egg - laying cost was 3.43 yuan/jin, down 2.56% month - on - month, with a loss of 0.43 yuan/jin. The decrease was due to the decline in corn and soybean meal prices [51]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 31, the production - link inventory was 1.03 days, the same as at the end of September; the circulation - link inventory was 1.16 days, down 5.69% month - on - month [54]. III. Market Outlook - The egg price got short - term support from downstream stocking due to improved storage conditions, but the supply pressure remained, and the short - term upward space of the futures price was limited. Attention should be paid to the performance of the futures price around the 3200 resistance level [8][55]. IV. Operation Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Temporarily wait and see, and hold a bearish view on the medium - to - long - term at high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [9][56].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Sino-US Trade Transformation, Soybean Meal Futures Prices Bottom Out and Rebound" and is prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures [1][2] - The report was released on November 3, 2025, with Yao Zhanqi as the agricultural products sector researcher [2] Group 2: Market Review - In October 2025, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted soybean meal rose 2.58%, closing at 2940, while the weighted rapeseed meal fell 0.74%, closing at 2367 [5][8] - In the international market, US soybeans rose 11.42%, closing at 1115.00, and US soybean meal rose 17.64%, closing at 321.40 [5][8] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report showed that the 2025/26 US soybean harvest area was raised by 200,000 acres to 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre was lowered by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, and the production was raised by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels [13] - The US soybean crush volume was raised by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, the export volume was lowered by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels (a six - year low), and the ending inventory was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels [13] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global 2025/26 soybean production forecast was 425.87 million tons (down from 426.39 million tons in August), and the ending inventory forecast was 123.99 million tons (down from 124.90 million tons in August) [5][17] China's Soybean Imports - As of September 2025, China's monthly soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons, at a historically high level [18] Oil Mill Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0044 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,300 tons, at a historically high level [20] Pig Farming Profit - As of October 31, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, at a historical average level [21] Feed Production - As of September 2025, feed production was 31.287 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% in the month, at a historically high level [22] Group 4: Cross - Variety Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 74.2 yuan per ton, and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 122.3 yuan per ton. The price of the main soybean meal futures contract was 3,021 yuan per ton [24] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal futures main contracts was 2.69, at a historical average level [26] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal futures main contracts was 0.79, and the price difference was - 633 yuan per ton [27] Group 5: Outlook - On October 30, 2025, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a consensus on agricultural trade and phased tariff mitigation. China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, which strongly supports the US soybean futures price [6][30] - The rise in US soybean futures prices drives up domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices. However, the high - level of oil mill crushing and abundant soybean meal supply limit the price increase. After the Sino - US economic and trade forum, the tariff policy will provide clearer guidance for the soybean meal market [7][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the price of the rebar 2601 contract rose by 0.52%. The recovery of terminal demand remained slow, the trading in the construction steel market was dull, and prices lacked upward drivers. It is expected that the futures price of rebar 2601 will fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Suggestions for operations: for unilateral trading, consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - The daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [7]. Spot Price - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. Basis and Spread - No specific analysis of basis and spread is provided in the text. Important Market Information - China's steel production and apparent consumption decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters of this year. It is expected that the annual production will continue to decline, achieving the target of crude steel production control [15]. - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year, and China will also suspend relevant export control measures. The US will also suspend the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [15]. - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [16][17]. - The "Action Plan for the Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Iron and Steel Industry in Henan Province" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level in the provincial steel industry by the end of 2025 and further optimize the industrial layout by 2027 [17]. Supply - side Situation - As of September 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the current value of the purchasing managers' index for the steel circulation industry was 50.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [25]. Demand - side Situation - No specific analysis of demand - side situation is provided in the text, only some data sources and relevant indicators are mentioned. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, the steel industry PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%, ending two consecutive months of month - on - month decline, indicating a recovery in the industry's operation [5][34]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.69%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.02%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,400 tons [5][34]. 后市展望 - The average national rebar price in October was 3241 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of October decreased by 28 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month, a decline of 1.4%. The futures price of rebar 2601 is expected to fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [5][35]. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.69%. Recently, the global iron ore shipment volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan have been temporarily lifted, and the national hot metal output may fluctuate slightly next week. On the inventory side, the iron ore inventory in 47 ports continues the trend of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the iron ore price may fluctuate weakly in the near future [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - In the first three quarters of this year, China's steel production decreased year - on - year, and the apparent consumption continued to decline. The cumulative national crude steel production in the first three quarters was 7.46 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. It is expected that the annual production will still decline year - on - year, achieving the crude steel production control target [13]. - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and will study and refine specific plans. The US will suspend the implementation of the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the US suspends the implementation of relevant measures, China will also suspend the implementation of counter - measures against the US for one year [13][14]. - A total of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [14]. - The "Henan Province Iron and Steel Industry Quality Improvement and Upgrading Action Plan" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of steel production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level in the province by the end of 2025 and basically complete the ultra - low emission transformation of enterprises. By 2027, the industrial layout will be further optimized, and inefficient production capacity will be basically cleared [14]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633,000 tons, an increase of 1,111,000 tons from the previous month; the import average price was $96.95 per ton, an increase of $4.23 per ton from the previous month [18]. - As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517,100 tons, an increase of 434,200 tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 2,819,800 tons, a decrease of 415,900 tons from the first half of the month [22]. 3.3 Demand - Side Situation - The PMI of the steel industry in October 2025 was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%, ending the continuous two - month month - on - month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [30]. - Last week, the iron ore price continued to rise month - on - month. As of October 31, the 62% Australian powder forward price index was $106.3 per ton, a month - on - month increase of $2.3 per ton, with a growth rate of 2.21%. The iron ore price was in the range of $105 - $107 per ton last week, and the average price in October was $104.8 per ton [30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - The total import iron ore inventory in 47 ports was 15,272,930 tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,440 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3,312,200 tons, an increase of 91,500 tons. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports was 14,542,480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 118,890 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3,201,600 tons, an increase of 75,100 tons; the number of ships at the port was 118, an increase of 11 [31]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.69%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.02%; the daily average hot metal output was 236,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,540 tons [31]. 3.5 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the upper pressure near 850 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: Long raw materials - short rebar arbitrage strategy. - Options: Wait and see [5][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol remained weak, but the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated under the boost of strong crude oil. The weighted methanol closed at 2,282 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.26% from the previous week. The supply of methanol is still relatively abundant, and the demand such as MTO is expected to be weak. The spot market of methanol may be mainly weak. In the short term, it is still difficult to substantially improve the supply and demand of methanol, but the strengthening of crude oil boosts methanol, and the methanol price may still fluctuate [6][9][10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol were still weak, but the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated under the boost of strong crude oil. The weighted methanol closed at 2,282 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.26% from the previous week. In the spot market, the unloading of foreign vessels continued to fall short of expectations, the提货 volume decreased significantly, the port methanol inventory increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was weak, suppressing the market price. The price of methanol in the mainland had no strong positive support, and the downstream procurement was negative under the pressure of high inventory. After the news of external procurement of olefins in the production area spread, the market first declined and then rose, but the procurement situation was not ideal [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the domestic methanol production continued to decline. The number of methanol plant overhauls was more than that of restarts, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. The production was 1,943,465 tons, a decrease of 39,690 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 2.00% month-on-month [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of methanol showed a downward trend. The overall start - up of the olefin industry decreased, the capacity utilization rate of DME decreased, the capacity utilization rate of chlorides decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased. Only the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly [18][19]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 22, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises increased to 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the order backlog decreased to 215,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79% [21]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 22, China's methanol port sample inventory increased to 1,512,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.39%. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels continued to fall short of expectations. The inventory in East China increased, the inventory in Zhejiang decreased, the inventory in South China showed destocking, and the inventory in Fujian increased slightly [24]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of China's methanol samples was poor. The profits of coal - based and coke oven gas - based methanol shrank, and the gas - based methanol remained in a loss state [26]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of restarts of domestic methanol plants may be more than that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9892 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.66%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The start - up of olefin enterprises will continue to decrease passively. The capacity utilization rate of DME is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to decrease slightly. The capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to remain at last week's level. The capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to change little [32][34]. - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises will be 341,300 tons, a slight destocking compared with last week. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - **Overall**: The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, but the strengthening of crude oil boosts methanol. In the short term, methanol is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash market showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern with limited price fluctuations. The fundamentals remained in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply side changed little, and the overall supply pressure still existed. The demand side was dull, with downstream procurement in a rigid - demand mode and limited new order increments. The market was full of a strong wait - and - see sentiment. - Although the inventory decreased slightly, the absolute level was still at a historical high, and the inventory pressure was still significant. The profit situation continued to be under pressure, and the industry as a whole was still in a loss state with limited cost support. The core market contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand. - In the short term, the market lacked a clear directional driver. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand restricted the upward price space. It was expected that the market would continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction and the recovery strength of downstream demand. - Operational suggestions included shorting at high prices for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread combination for options [40][41]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.01%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 330,600 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared to the previous week, and the heavy soda ash production was 409,900 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons compared to the previous week. - The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01% compared to the previous value. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 91.09%, an increase of 1.67% compared to the previous week, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 76.23%, an increase of 0.49% compared to the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.98%, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous week [9][11]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7021 million tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons compared to the previous Monday, with a decline rate of 0.50%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 767,600 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons compared to the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 934,500 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons compared to the previous week. Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 1,600 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 767,600 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons compared to the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 934,500 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.6503 million tons, an increase of 51,800 tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 3.14% [14]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 23, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 739,000 tons, an increase of 5.60% compared to the previous week. The overall soda ash shipment rate was 99.78%, an increase of 5.28 percentage points compared to the previous week [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 32.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. During the week, the cost of raw salt remained stable, while the price of anthracite coal fluctuated upward, increasing the cost. The soda ash price remained weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to decline. - As of October 23, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese co - production process soda ash was - 161 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. During the week, the cost of raw salt increased slightly, and the price of thermal coal rose significantly, resulting in a significant increase in cost. The soda ash price had no obvious fluctuation and remained weakly stable, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process decreased significantly [20][23]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of October 23, 2025, the daily output of national floating glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 16th. During the week (October 17 - 23, 2025), the national floating glass production was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the previous year [27]. (2) Floating Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.337 million weight boxes compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 3.64%, and an increase of 16.99% compared to the previous year. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased from 723 yuan/ton on October 16 to 762 yuan/ton on October 23, an increase of 5.39%. The prices of well - mine salt in different regions (East China, Northeast, North China) remained unchanged. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in different regions also remained unchanged, while the price of floating glass decreased from 1246 yuan/ton to 1187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.74%. The price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass remained unchanged, the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased from 2199 yuan/ton to 2183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report In October, it is the peak period of new grain supply. The concentrated selling of moldy grain in North China suppresses the overall price. Downstream feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Although the purchase of state - owned and local grain depots provides some support, the corn price has limited downside but lacks upward momentum. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the performance of the futures price around the resistance level of 2,150 yuan [6][58]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the main contract of corn futures switched to C2601, showing a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. As of last Friday's close, it closed at 2,133 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume was 369,190 lots, and the open interest was 888,492 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 424 cents per bushel, down 0.93% [3][11][14]. - **Spot Price**: The national weekly average price of corn decreased slightly to 2,212 yuan/ton. In Northeast China, prices were strong due to the price increase at northern ports; in North China, prices first rose and then fell; in the sales areas, prices followed the increase at northern ports. The prices at northern ports first rose and then stabilized, with a slight decline in the later period [5][20][21]. 2. Last Week's Related Information - India's abundant supply of corn distillers' dried grains with solubles (DDGS) benefits local feed mills, and India and the US are close to reaching a bilateral trade agreement [23]. - Australia's winter grain output is expected to reach 62.8 million tons this year, an increase of about 3.8 million tons year - on - year [23]. - From October 1 - 17, Brazil exported 3.574 million tons of corn. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) expects the October export volume to reach 6.57 million tons [23][24]. - As of October 20, the planting progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's Paraná state was 94% [24]. - As of October 22, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 8.29 million tons, a decrease of 37.5% year - on - year, with corn exports down 70.6% [24]. - The EU's new tariff - quota system since mid - 2025 will reduce Ukraine's agricultural export revenue to the EU by about $1.144 billion annually [24]. - As of October 21, nearly 80% of the autumn grain in China had been harvested, with over 80% in North China and nearly 40% in the Northeast [25]. - As of October 19, 2025, the EU's corn imports in the 2025/26 season decreased by 26% year - on - year, with Brazil's share increasing significantly and Ukraine's share decreasing [25]. 3. Corn Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Feed Enterprises' Inventory**: As of October 23, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 24.04 days, down 0.40 days from the previous week, a decrease of 1.64% week - on - week and 12.04% year - on - year [29]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Inventory**: The total inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises was 2.695 million tons, an increase of 6.5% week - on - week and a decrease of 13.41% year - on - year [34]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Consumption**: 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2633 million tons of corn last week, an increase of 40,300 tons week - on - week. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [38]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Operation Rate**: The total corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons from the previous week. The corn starch output was 287,700 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons. The weekly operation rate was 55.62%, down 1.12% week - on - week, showing regional differentiation [43]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit**: The hedging profit of corn starch and by - products in Jilin was 74 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Shandong, it was 83 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it was 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [48]. 4. Analysis of Related Products - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the price of corn starch was partially strong. The price in Shandong increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it remained flat; in Jilin, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it increased by 20 yuan/ton. The market was supported by cost and demand [54]. - **Pigs**: The national average slaughter price of pigs this week was 11.33 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan/kg from the previous week, an increase of 3.47% week - on - week and a decrease of 34.92% year - on - year. The market still had an oversupply situation, but demand increased with the cooling weather [57]. 5. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: Consider the 01 - 05 reverse spread strategy. - **Options**: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [7][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated upward last week with a large increase. Looking ahead, the macro - market atmosphere is warming, which supports the overall commodity atmosphere. The supply side has strong support, terminal consumption performs well, and natural rubber inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly in the short term [8][9][83] 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 14,675 to 15,470 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend with a significant overall increase. As of the close on October 24, 2025, it closed at 15,335 yuan/ton, up 640 points or 4.36% for the week [6][15] (2) Spot Price - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 18,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,060 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][22] (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded slightly last week. As of October 24, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 585 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased slightly last week [26][28] Important Market Information - The US 9 - month CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%; the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than the market expectation. The US 10 - month manufacturing PMI, service PMI, and composite PMI all rebounded compared with September and were better than expected. The US consumer confidence index in October declined, and the 5 - to 10 - year inflation expectation rose to 3.9% [29] - Trump expressed his expectation to reach a good trade agreement with China during the APEC meeting, but the meeting might be cancelled. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and sanctioned Chinese large - scale refineries and oil traders for the first time. China urged the EU to stop this behavior [30][31] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The economic and trade consultations between China and the US were held from October 24 to 27. The EU supported the negotiation for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [30][32] - In September, China's automobile production and sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The sales volume of new energy vehicles and heavy trucks reached new highs. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 10 million, and the proportion of new energy vehicles reached 57.2% [33][34][35] Supply - side Situation - As of August 31, 2025, the production in some major natural rubber - producing countries changed: Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia slightly decreased, while India, Vietnam, and China slightly increased. The total production in August was 987,000 tons, up 60,000 tons or 6.47% from the previous month, with a slightly slower growth rate [38] - As of September 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%; the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [42][46][50] Demand - side Situation - As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.67%, up 0.95% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.58%, up 1.06% from last week [52] - As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.2758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% and a month - on - month increase of 16.35%; the monthly sales volume was 3.2264 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.86% and a month - on - month increase of 12.94% [56][59] - The monthly sales volume of Chinese heavy trucks was 105,583 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95% and a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 56.3 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.65% [65][68][73] Inventory - side Situation - As of October 24, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,020 tons, a decrease of 10,980 tons from last week. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 2.8%. The total inventory of dark rubber was 640,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%; the total inventory of light rubber was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period [80] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the global natural rubber producing areas are still in the peak supply season. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by weather, and typhoons last week hindered rubber tapping, leading to an increase in raw material purchase prices. In the future, there is a strong expectation of increased supply as rainfall decreases. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [81] - On the demand side, the operating rate of tire enterprises rebounded slightly last week. The production of semi - steel tires was stable, and the production of snow tires was being stepped up due to insufficient inventory. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises slowed down, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly, and the export of tires increased significantly [81] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly last week, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline [82] 后市展望 - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated upward last week. In the future, the macro - market atmosphere is warming, the supply side has strong support, terminal demand is resilient, and inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Key points to focus on include the progress of Sino - US talks, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, and the promotion of zero - tariff policies [83][84] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, consider a positive - spread strategy; for options, wait and see for now [85][86]

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract declined by 0.06%. With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [7][10] 2. Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China emphasizes adjusting monetary policy according to economic and financial conditions and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicits opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", with strict regulations on steel capacity replacement ratios in different regions [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $96.95 per ton, an increase of $4.23 per ton from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's were 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [18][22] 4. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, and the procurement volume of wire rods and screws at Shanghai terminals, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [23][26][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan per ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan per ton. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14,423.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145.32 tons; the daily port clearance volume was 312.65 tons, a decrease of 3.07 tons; the number of ships at the port was 107, a decrease of 17. In mid - October, the daily output of key steel enterprises showed a mixed trend, and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44% and a year - on - year increase of 2.57%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 1.46%; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.32%; the daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 42,100 tons. In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 141.8 million tons, and China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [31][32][33] 6. Future Outlook - With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [34] 7. Operational Strategies - Unilateral: Try short positions lightly at high points within the range. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol's fundamentals remain weak, and its price may continue to oscillate weakly. The decline in port methanol inventory may have limited positive impact on the spot price, and future supply and demand are unlikely to see substantial improvement [1][7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated downward. By Friday afternoon's close, the methanol weighted price was 2,286 yuan/ton, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol prices were strong due to inventory reduction, while inland prices were weak due to high supply and lack of downstream support [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,983,655 tons, a decrease of 47,850 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 2.36% decline from the previous week [14] - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry maintained a high - level operation, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate increased, the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the methane chloride capacity utilization rate decreased significantly, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate increased [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 359,900 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 228,900 tons, a 98.64% increase from the previous period. The port sample inventory was 1,491,400 tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period [19][21] - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples showed differences. The profits of coal - based and coke oven gas - based methanol narrowed, while the loss of gas - based methanol improved slightly [23] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1,995,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.95%, an increase from last week [30] - **Downstream Demand**: In the short term, the olefin industry is expected to maintain a high - level operation. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline [31][32][33] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to show a slight decline. The port methanol inventory is expected to rise, but the unloading speed is uncertain [33] - **Overall Outlook**: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [34]