Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market showed active trading last week with a convergence in the discount of index futures, indicating optimistic market expectations. In the short - term, the market may enter a high - level consolidation phase. Policy expectations and improved economic data support the market, but valuation pressures are emerging. Investors are advised to focus on market structural changes, seize sector rotation opportunities, and control positions to prevent short - term adjustment risks [28]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - On August 29, A - share major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3857.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.99% to 12696.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% to 2890.13 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 27983 billion yuan, a decrease of 1725 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Battery, insurance, and other sectors led the gains, while education, semiconductor, etc. declined [5]. - Last week, domestic stock index futures strengthened. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were +3.01%, +1.73%, +3.09%, and +0.64% respectively [5]. - Last week, treasury bond futures rose. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.56%, 0.14%, 0.14%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The CSRC held a symposium, emphasizing the consolidation of the capital market's recovery, promoting reform and opening - up, and advocating long - term, value, and rational investment [7]. - As of August 29, 5299 A - share companies disclosed their 2025 semi - annual reports, with 4085 companies having positive net profits, accounting for 77.09%. 643 companies had a year - on - year net profit growth rate of over 100% [7]. - From August 27 - 29, Chinese official visited the US to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations, emphasizing cooperation and dialogue [7]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations, with a net withdrawal of 4039 billion yuan. This week, 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 10000 billion yuan in 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature [8]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of August 29, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are presented. For example, the CSI 300 index has a PE of 14.15 times, a percentile of 86.86%, and a PB of 1.48 times [12]. - The report explains the concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond yield spread [23]. 3.4 China - Buffett Indicator On August 29, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 86.95%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 86.46%, and in the past 10 - year data was 90.36% [26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The market last week was characterized by active trading and a convergence in index futures discounts. In the short - term, the market may enter a high - level consolidation phase [28]. - Operation suggestions include: for single - side trading, buy on dips while being wary of valuation risks; for arbitrage, participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy and watch for style - switching signals; for options, use covered calls to increase returns or buy put options to hedge volatility risks [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market presented a pattern of significant supply - side pressure, marginal improvement but insufficient resilience on the demand side, and weak cost support, resulting in overall market pressure [6][7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season for methanol is approaching, but currently, the downstream demand has not significantly increased. Most devices are still in a state of loss and low operation, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The market may still show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in September, with port inventories expected to continue increasing and prices facing certain downward pressure [8]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of methanol still show strong supply and weak demand, and methanol prices are likely to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol closed at 2,348 yuan/ton, a 1.55% drop from the previous week [6][13]. - In the spot market, the port methanol inventory increased significantly, and the port market was under pressure to decline. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,220 - 2,320 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,240 - 2,300 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price also decreased due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the impact of low - priced Xinjiang goods [13]. Methanol Fundamental Analysis Production - From August 22 - 28, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,918,285 tons, an increase of 24,290 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The recovery volume was greater than the loss volume [15]. Downstream Demand - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry's starting rate increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 61.94%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde decreased, while that of chlorides increased [18][19]. Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 333,400 tons, a 22,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 7.27% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 217,000 tons, a 9,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.64% increase [21]. - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,299,300 tons, a 223,300 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.75% increase. Ports in different regions all had inventory accumulations [23]. Profit - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production increased, while the profits of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol production weakened. Gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 82.10 yuan/ton, a 44.54% increase from the previous week [25]. Methanol Trend Outlook Supply - This week, the resumption of domestic methanol devices may continue to exceed the number of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production this week will be about 1.9762 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.40%, an increase from last week [32]. Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's starting rate will continue to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; and the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase slightly [33][34]. Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. Port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - Overall, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains weak, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. In the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 20,580 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,950 yuan/ton [9] 2.宏观面 - In August, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [13][15] 3.供需情况 - As of August 28, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. In July, the monthly output of aluminum products was 216940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [19][23] 4.库存情况 - As of August 29, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,596 tons, an increase of 991 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 481,050 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.56%. As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 567,000 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous day [28] 5.宏观面、基本面分析 - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, alumina production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of alumina enterprises continued to rise. The import volume of bauxite increased rapidly month - on - month, approaching the high in April. The production of aluminum products decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production of aluminum alloy decreased month - on - month. The Shanghai aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years [36] 6.后市展望 - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In August, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened significantly. The market sentiment continued to improve under policy expectations and capital promotion, with small and medium - cap varieties outperforming weight - based contracts. The economic fundamentals showed structural improvement. In the short term, the market may enter a high - level shock stage, and the mid - term trend is still optimistic, but attention should be paid to volume changes and policy implementation results. [5][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened significantly. IC and IM outperformed IF and IH. The monthly increase rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 11.24%, 7.50%, 14.47%, and 12.87% respectively. [5] - In the bond market, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell. [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. [7] - In August, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing industry continued to expand. [10] - In August, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities accelerated. [15] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of August 29, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 index were 14.15 times, 86.86%, and 1.48 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 index were 11.94 times, 92.16%, and 1.31 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 index were 33.33 times, 78.82%, and 2.24 times respectively; and those of the CSI 1000 index were 46.87 times, 73.53%, and 2.50 times respectively. [18] 3.4 Other Data - The quantile of the current "total market value/GDP" in historical data was 86.46%, and the quantile in the past 10 - year data on August 29, 2025, was 86.95%. [28] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In August, the stock index futures market continued to be strong, with significant increases in all major contracts. Small and medium - cap varieties outperformed weight - based contracts, and the technology - growth style dominated. The capital side remained loose, and the northbound funds continued to flow in. The economic fundamentals showed structural improvement. [29] - In the short term, the market may enter a high - level shock stage, and the mid - term trend is still optimistic, but attention should be paid to volume changes and policy implementation results. [29] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Buy on dips, but beware of valuation risks. - Arbitrage: Participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy periodically and pay attention to style - switching signals. - Options: Use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks. [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a slightly upward trend last week. Looking ahead, the macro - environment remains warm due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, supply is supported by rainfall affecting rubber tapping, but there is supply pressure later. Demand is fair, and inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected that the futures market may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [8][87]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fluctuated between 15,650 - 16,160 yuan/ton, showing a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. As of August 29, 2025, it closed at 15,860 yuan/ton, up 235 points or 1.5% for the week [13]. (2) Spot Price - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][21]. (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference, the basis narrowed slightly last week. As of August 29, 2025, the basis was - 960 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than last week. The domestic price of natural rubber rose slightly last week, while the overseas price fell slightly [26][29]. 2. Important Market Information - Multiple important economic and trade events were reported, including the US Fed's interest - rate - related statements, US economic data (such as GDP, PCE, unemployment claims), EU - US tariff negotiations, China's economic data (such as industrial added - value, industrial profits, logistics volume), and industry - related data (such as automobile, tire production and sales) [30][31][32]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the total production of major natural rubber - producing countries was 835,400 tons, an increase of 15.6% from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [40][45][49]. 4. Demand - side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 94.364 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [55][59][62]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 29, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week. As of August 24, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%; the total inventory in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [84]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently in the peak supply season, rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas affects rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% month - on - month and decreased by 1.91% year - on - year, with cumulative imports from January - July increasing by 21.82% year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than in previous years. - Demand: The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly last week. The semi - steel tire market has sufficient inventory and is actively selling; the all - steel tire market has average sales, and downstream customers mainly replenish inventory regularly. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last week, while China's social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory decreased slightly [86]. 7.后市展望 - The price of the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Key factors to watch include the meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the Fed's interest - rate cut, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, and Sino - US tariff changes [87]. 8.观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. - Operating strategy: Consider going long on dips for single - side trading; hold off on arbitrage and options trading for now [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55%. The iron ore spot has been fluctuating recently. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55% [10] 2. Important Market Information - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities, and improve the real - estate development model [17]. - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [17]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of July 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 104.62 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $91.41 per ton, a decrease of $1.47 per ton from the previous month [22]. - As of June 2025, the iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 71.156 million tons, an increase of 2.908 million tons from the previous month, and that from Brazil was 27.158 million tons, a decrease of 889,000 tons from the first half of the month [25]. 4. Demand - side Situation - Last week, the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 192,400 tons year - on - year [29]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Recently, the iron ore spot has been fluctuating. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 821,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1864 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 98, an increase of 6. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.8802 million tons, a decrease of 561,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3414 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.3031 million tons, a decrease of 1.2872 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.2676 million tons, an increase of 598,700 tons; the inventory of traded ore was 92.2802 million tons, an increase of 146,900 tons; the inventory of coarse powder was 112.9016 million tons, an increase of 424,100 tons; the inventory of lump ore was 16.689 million tons, a decrease of 971,100 tons; the inventory of concentrate powder was 11.3859 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons; the inventory of pellets was 2.9037 million tons, a decrease of 238,100 tons. The number of ships at ports was 101, an increase of 4 [36]. 6. Market Outlook - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Opportunistically sell deep out - of - the - money put options [39]

| 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 1 | 9 | 月 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2601 合约下跌 1.06%。 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 1 日星期一 基本面：据 mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.2%， 环比减少 0.16%，同比增加 6.79%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.02%， 环比减少 0.23%，同比增加 7.06%；钢厂盈利率 63.64%，环比减 少 1.30%，同比增加 59.74%；日均铁水产量 240.13 万吨，环比 减少 0.62 万吨，同比增加 19.24 万吨。受环保及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its pattern of oscillating at the bottom. Supply contraction and inventory reduction bring short - term boosts, but the key lies in whether the demand side can improve continuously. If the downstream glass market shows no improvement, the rebound space for soda ash prices will be limited. One should closely monitor device dynamics, the sustainability of inventory reduction, and changes in macro - policy sentiment. [9][40] - In terms of operations, for the short - term in the single - side trading, one can look for rebound opportunities after sharp price drops, but the upside space is expected to be limited and cautious operation is required. For arbitrage, consider the 01 - 05 reverse spread strategy (short near - month and long far - month). For options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options or constructing a bear spread strategy. [40][41] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Output and Capacity Utilization Decline**: As of August 28, 2025, last week's domestic soda ash output was 719,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,300 tons or 6.78%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.01%. The decline was due to equipment reduction and individual overhauls. [7][10][12] - **Soda Ash Inventory Pressure Alleviates**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 20,600 tons or 1.09% from the previous Monday. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 43,300 tons or 2.27%. [8][14] - **Shipment Volume and Shipment Rate Improve Continuously**: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 762,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. The overall soda ash shipment rate was 106.02%, a month - on - month increase of 8.23 percentage points. [17] - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 28, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 0.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton. [19][23] 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Output Increases Month - on - Month**: As of August 28, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 21st. Last week's national float glass output was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. [26] - **Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases Month - on - Month**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes or 1.63%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. [30] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The report provides a comparison table of domestic regional price changes of soda ash, showing the prices of light and heavy soda ash in different regions in July and August 2025 and August 2024, as well as the month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, in the Northeast region, the price of light soda ash in August 2025 was 1400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.89%. [37][39]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rose first and then fell. The Y2601 soybean oil contract dropped 1.18% to close at 8,358 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract declined 2.88% to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract decreased 1.02% to close at 9,789 yuan/ton [5][28][29]. 2. Important News - **Palm Oil**: On Tuesday, senior Indonesian government officials revealed that the US has in principle agreed to exempt Indonesian exports of palm oil, cocoa, and rubber products from the 19% tariff imposed by President Trump since August 7. Although the decision is not final, it represents an important step in Indonesia - US economic and trade relations. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 3.40% [6][28]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the monthly oilseed crushing report at 3:00 am on September 3, Beijing time. Before the report, a survey of analysis institutions showed that the estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 6.218 million short - tons, or 207.2 million bushels. If the average estimate of nine analysis institutions is correct, the crushing volume will increase by 5.1% compared to 197.1 million bushels in June and 7.2% compared to 193.3 million bushels in July 2024. US soybeans fell 0.50% this week [7][29]. 3. Market Outlook - Currently, the impact on international oils and fats is bearish. The end of the fuel consumption peak season has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the entire vegetable oil market. Coupled with the expected high - yield of US soybeans and the ongoing production - increasing season of Southeast Asian palm oil, vegetable oil prices have declined, leading to a drop in domestic oil and fat prices. However, the increased consumption driven by the start of schools has curbed the decline. If the supply - side pressure persists and the demand side does not improve significantly, the futures prices of oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly [8][29]. 4. Spot Analysis - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,320 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [12]. 5. Other Data - As of August 22, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 47,000 tons to 1.367 million tons. On August 27, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 49,000 tons to 534,000 tons [16]. - As of August 29, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,854,550 tons [18]. - As of August 29, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 212 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [20]. - As of August 29, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 4 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of August 29, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 81 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the strong downstream demand for caustic soda drove the continuous rise of caustic soda futures. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted price of caustic soda futures reached 2,756 yuan/ton, a 4.51% increase from the previous week. The favorable fundamentals also led to an increase in both futures and spot prices of caustic soda [6][7][11]. - The caustic soda futures are expected to remain strong. After a pullback, long - position operations should still be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Trend Review - Last week, the caustic soda futures continued to rise due to strong downstream demand. The weighted price of caustic soda futures closed at 2,756 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 4.51% from the previous week. In the spot market, the weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 836 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase from the previous week [6][11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Fundamental Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week. There were different trends in different regions, such as a 3.9% decrease in the Northwest to 87.1% and a 0.1% increase in Shandong to 88.4% [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operation of the main downstream industries of caustic soda was generally stable. The alumina production remained stable, and the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.18% to 86.22% [18]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.46% decrease from the previous week. Inventory trends varied by region, with most regions experiencing inventory declines, while the inventory in the Northwest increased slightly [21]. - **Profit of Chlor - Alkali Enterprises in Shandong**: Last week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 349 yuan/ton, a 21.18% increase from the previous week [24]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Trend Outlook - **Liquid Caustic Soda**: In East China, major enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance this week, and non - aluminum stocking demand is increasing. The inventory pressure on enterprises is not significant, and the price of liquid caustic soda is expected to rise steadily. The price of liquid caustic soda in eastern Shandong may still increase [28]. - **Flake Caustic Soda**: The market in other domestic regions is mainly consolidating. In Inner Mongolia, the maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the new order quotes of manufacturers are expected to remain stable [9].