研究报告 生猪月报 供需改善政策提振，盘面有望震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 1 日星期五 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之 后的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 2025 年 7 月生猪期货主力合约 LH2509 期价在 13840-15150 元/吨之间运行。整体来看，7 月生猪期货主力合约呈现区间震荡、 冲高回落的"M"走势，当月总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 7 月 31 日下午收盘，当月生猪主力合约 LH2509 上涨 205 元/吨，涨幅 1.48%，报收 14075 元/吨。 【后市展望】 2025 年 7 月，生猪期价主力合约呈现区间震荡、冲高回落的 "M"走势，当月总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，行业政策方面，国家连续召开会议推进"反内卷"， 提振生猪远期价格。对供给端来看，从能繁母猪存栏量推算，后 续供应增加格局未改，供给端对猪价形成一定压力。但是考虑到 2 月前后猪病的影响 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous upward trend, with IC and IM performing stronger than IF and IH. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term oversold rebound opportunities catalyzed by policies, but be vigilant against fluctuations caused by economic data falling short of expectations. It is recommended to participate with a light position and closely follow the central bank's medium - term lending facility operations and real estate policy trends [5][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - In July, the domestic stock index futures market continued to strengthen. The month - on - month increases of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 4.14%, 3.27%, 6.16%, and 6.33% respectively [5]. - Last month, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still above the critical point. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises remained in an expansion state [8][9][13]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of July 31, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.39 times, 72.8%, and 1.41 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.48 times, 85.13%, and 1.27 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.78 times, 73.39%, and 2.06 times respectively; and those of the CSI 1000 Index were 41.3 times, 66.34%, and 2.29 times respectively [14]. 3.4 Other Data - The "total market value/GDP" quantile in historical data was 77.08%. On July 30, 2025, the "total market value/GDP" quantiles in the recent 10 - year data were 81.07% and 76.31% [25]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In July, the stock index futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but the upward foundation was still unstable. The market contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term opportunities but be cautious about risks [26].

研究报告 豆粕月报 市场波动，豆粕期价震荡整理 华龙期货投资咨询部 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 7 月豆粕期价震荡整理，7 月豆粕加权上涨 0.64%，以 2965 报收；菜粕加权上涨 2.98%，以 2561 报收。 国际市场上，美豆连续下跌 3.09%，以 996.00 报收，美豆粉 下跌 5.11%，以 274.60 报收。 【重要资讯】： USDA 报告显示，本月全球 2025/26 年度大豆压榨量上调 112 万吨至 3.68 亿吨，主要是因为美豆压榨量增加；出口量 减少 80 万吨至 1.88 亿吨，因阿根廷大豆出口增量难抵美豆 出口量减少，由此也可看出全球大豆出口格局的悄然变化。 【后市展望】： 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 01 日星期五 当前国内大豆市场呈现库存持续累积态势，港口大豆库 存已攀 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US tariff increase on semi-finished copper products has limited direct impact on the Chinese copper industry, and it is expected to have a certain negative impact on the Shanghai copper price, but the overall impact is not significant [3][14][35] - The price of copper may mainly show a volatile trend due to various factors such as China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory [35][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In June, affected by the dissipation of the negative impact of tariff policies, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly volatile and weakening trend, with a price range of about 77,650 yuan/ton to 80,780 yuan/ton [7] - The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,555 - 10,020 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products starting from August 1st, while copper input materials and copper scrap are not subject to relevant tariffs [11] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Different types of enterprises had different profit changes, and there were also significant differences in profit changes among industries [15][16] - On July 30th local time in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was the fifth consecutive time to maintain the interest rate unchanged [3][35] 3. Supply Side - As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. As of July 25th, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was -4.26 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was -42.73 US dollars/kiloton [17] - As of July 31st, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 78,535 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper was -1,160 yuan/ton [23] 4. Demand Side - As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [26] 5. Inventory Side - As of July 25th, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 11,133 tons from the previous week. As of July 30th, 2025, the LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 12.4%. The COMEX copper inventory increased by 2,517 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 500 tons from the previous week [31] 6. Outlook - The factors affecting copper price trends include China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc., with different degrees of influence [34] - Considering various factors, the copper price may mainly show a volatile trend [35][36][37]

研究报告 铝周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 欧洲央行维持利率不变，沪铝或延续震荡运行 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 28 日星期一 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，不干预任何汇率；关注贸易谈判 的路径；6 月的基准情景保持不变；目前通胀率为 2%，欧洲央行 处于良好位置；企业利润继续抵消工资上涨；薪资增长正在朝着 正确的方向发展，欧洲央行维持主要再融资利率在 2.15%不变。 中国财政部数据显示，2025 年上半年，全国一般公共预算支出 141271 亿元，同比增长 3.4%。国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发 布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》，拟 进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准，完善低价倾销认定标准， 规范市场价格秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争。氧化铝厂开工率有所 回升，企业利润持续改善，氧化铝库存仍然处于低位。铝材产量 小幅上升，行业开工逐步改善。沪铝库存结 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 宏观利好提振，甲醇或偏强运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周受宏观面提振，甲醇期货偏强运行，至周五下午收盘， 甲醇加权收于 2541 元/吨，较前一周上涨 6.5%。 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 【操作策略】 国内宏观面预期回暖后，若外围关税谈判没有明显不利影响， 甲醇大概率偏强运行，应偏多操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 【基本面】 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 28 日星期一 上周，受宏观面"反内卷"政策以及"雅下"超级工程的共 同提振，市场信心恢复，对需求端的预期升温。国内工业品普遍 上涨。甲醇需求亦有好转，对甲醇现货价格有提振。供给方面， 受甲醇价格上涨带 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the A-share market showed many highlights, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,600 points during the week. The current market risk appetite is high, and the capital acceptance ability is strong. The policy and liquidity environment have entered a relatively favorable stage, and the expansion of the general trend is the main theme of the market. However, as the market rises rapidly, structural risks are emerging, and there is a game between fundamental pressure and policy hedging. This week, the market is expected to continue the pattern of shock and strength. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic policy guidance and the results of China-US trade talks [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **A-share Indexes**: On July 25, the three major A-share indexes collectively declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 11,168.14 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23% to 2,340.06 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 178.73 billion yuan [2]. - **Bond Market**: Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell. The 30-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 2.14% and closed at 117.950 yuan; the 10-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.58% and closed at 108.180 yuan; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.41% and closed at 105.570 yuan; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.12% and closed at 102.310 yuan [3]. - **Stock Index Futures Market**: Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous strengthening trend. The CSI 300 futures (IF2509) closed at 4,116.0 with a weekly increase of 1.84%; the SSE 50 futures (IH2509) closed at 2,796.8 with a weekly increase of 1.08%; the CSI 500 futures (IC2509) closed at 6,216.0 with a weekly increase of 3.59%; the CSI 1000 futures (IM2509) closed at 6,605.8 with a weekly increase of 3.00% [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Profit**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. From January to June, the profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 22.8%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13%, and the mining industry's profits decreased by 30.3% year-on-year [8]. - **Agricultural Policy**: Ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption", aiming to optimize the supply of high-quality green products, meet multi-level consumption needs, and promote the R & D of new food ingredients [8]. - **US Economic Data and Policy**: The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting from July 29 to 30. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the interest rate in the current range of 4.25% - 4.5%. The US will release the second-quarter GDP preliminary data on July 30, with the market expecting an annualized quarterly rate of 2.5%. On August 1, the US will release the July non-farm payroll data, with the market expecting an increase of 102,000 in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [9]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 40 billion yuan of MLF operations, and 10 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations this week. There were 172.68 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF maturities, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit maturities. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [9][10]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - **Index Valuation**: As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.59 times, with a percentile of 77.45%, and the PB was 1.43 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.48 times, with a percentile of 85.1%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 41.19 times, with a percentile of 66.27%, and the PB was 2.29 times [14]. - **Stock-Bond Yield Spread**: The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. Two formulas are provided for calculation. The data of the CSI 300 stock-bond yield spread is presented [18].

研究报告 螺纹周报 | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 7 | 年 | 月 | 28 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约上涨 6.34%，周五 夜盘下跌 1.45%。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 28 日星期一 基本面：据 mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比持平，同比增加 1.13%；高炉炼铁产能利 用率 90.81%，环比减少 0.08%，同比增加 1.20%；钢厂 盈利率 63.64%，环比增加 3.47%，同比增加 48.49%； 日均铁水产量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward with a large increase. In the future, the rubber market may be affected by factors such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border, weather disturbances in the main production areas, and changes in supply and demand. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include changes in domestic macro - sentiment, weather disturbances in the main rubber production areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures, RU2509, ranged from 14,780 to 15,665 yuan/ton, showing a significant upward trend. As of July 25, 2025, it closed at 15,585 yuan/ton, up 775 points or 5.23% for the week [6][14]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; and the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [19]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,320 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded significantly last week. As of July 25, 2025, the basis was - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - As of July 25, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased compared to the previous week, with a larger increase in the domestic market [30]. 3.2 Important Market Information - There were international events such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border on July 24, which led to concerns about rubber supply; statements from US political and financial figures regarding interest rates, trade agreements, and tariffs; and economic data from the US, the eurozone, and China, as well as the performance of the global and EU auto markets [32][33][35]. 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the production of main natural rubber - producing countries increased. The total production in May 2025 was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [43]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 4,231,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [48][52]. - As of June 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [56]. 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 75.99%, down 0.12% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.02%, down 0.08% from the previous week [58]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%; monthly sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.83% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12% [61][64]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 97,864 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% and a month - on - month increase of 10.25% [70]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [73]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [78]. 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons from the previous week [87]. - As of July 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons or 0.47% from the previous period. The social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 0.23%, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 0.85%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons or 0.28% from the previous period [87]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is entering an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in domestic and foreign main production areas have supported raw material prices, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply. In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 27.2% year - on - year [88]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises slightly decreased, downstream sales were sluggish, and inventory increased slowly. In June, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - truck sales also increased significantly. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Consumption - boosting policies are continuously being introduced [88]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [88]. 3.7后市展望 - The rubber market may be affected by the Thai - Cambodian border conflict, weather in the production areas, and supply - demand changes. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include domestic macro - sentiment, weather in production areas, terminal demand, zero - tariff policy, EU anti - dumping investigation, and Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish trading strategy and take profits on long positions when the price is high [10][90].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - This week, the prices of domestic oil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the P2509 palm oil contract closed at 8,936 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract closed at 9,457 yuan/ton, down 1.35% [5][30]. 2. Important Information Palm Oil - The president of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2025 may fall from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons, while the production of crude palm oil is expected to increase to 50 million tons, up from 48.2 million tons last year [6][30]. - Malaysian palm oil prices fell 0.93%. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from July 1 - 25 was 896,484 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.22% [6][30]. Soybean Oil - As of July 20, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62% (47% last week, 63% last year, and a historical average of 63%), and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% (70% a week ago, 68% last year). US soybeans fell 1.28% this week [7][30]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,310 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past five years [9]. - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12]. 4. Other Data - As of July 23, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 1.237 million tons, and the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 569,000 tons [16]. - As of July 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,756,740 tons [19]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 144 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [20][21]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 48 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [23]. 5. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, some domestic commodities rose significantly under the policy stimulus, but the oil futures prices remained stable and fluctuated. The supply - demand fundamentals of the Malaysian palm oil market are weak, lacking the impetus for active price increases [31]. - From the arrival schedule of soybeans in China, the arrival of soybeans from July to September is sufficient, and factories will continue to maintain high - volume crushing. The operating rate of key domestic oil mills remains high, with sufficient soybean oil supply, general downstream demand, and a rapid increase in domestic oil inventories. It is more likely that domestic oils will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][31].