Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with supply contraction providing some support but demand weakness restricting price increases. The core contradiction lies in the game between high inventory and weak demand. Future focus should be on the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread option combination [39]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,300 tons or 3.93%. Light soda ash production was 325,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,100 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 415,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,200 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48 percentage points. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 percentage points, and the combined soda process capacity utilization rate was 75.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,900 tons or 0.94%. Light soda ash inventory was 759,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,800 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 940,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 16, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The overall shipment rate was 94.50%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 percentage points [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The cost side had a narrow upward trend, and the soda ash price was weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to be weak [20]. - The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the combined soda process for soda ash was - 129.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The cost increased, the soda ash price was weakly stable, and the by - product ammonium chloride price declined, resulting in a significant decrease in the double - ton profit of the combined soda process [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Output - As of October 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th. The weekly output from October 10 - 16, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes or 2.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 2.55% to 723 yuan/ton; the price of原盐 - 井矿盐 in the East China region increased by 4% to 260 yuan/ton, while in the Northeast region it decreased by 3.7% to 1300 yuan/ton. Light soda ash prices in some regions such as Central China decreased, and heavy soda ash prices in some regions such as Northwest China decreased. The price of float glass decreased by 1.11% to 1246 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium chloride decreased by 5.26% to 360 yuan/ton [37]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week continued the pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted, but demand was weak, and high - inventory pressure was not relieved. Profit conditions deteriorated further, and the core contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand [38].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation of eggs is characterized by an overall loose pattern. In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. 3. Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak. The main contract was shifting to JD2512. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 2,805 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.02%, with a trading volume of 157,777 lots and an open interest of 171,242 lots. The JD2512 contract was at 2,959 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.04% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, and in the main selling areas was 2.91 yuan per catty. At the beginning of the week, due to continuous rain in many places, terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased, causing egg prices to fall below the feed cost line. In the middle of the week, as the weather improved, downstream replenishment increased, inventory decreased, and prices rebounded slightly, but the overall supply - demand situation remained loose [7][19]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in key national regions was 2.76 yuan per chick, down 0.03 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 1.08% and a year - on - year decline of 23.12%. The chick market was oversupplied, and farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was low [23]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the average price of old hens in representative markets was 4.43 yuan per catty, down 0.14 yuan per catty, a decline of 3.06%. After the holiday, as egg prices weakened, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens increased. As prices fell to a low level, farmers became reluctant to sell, and the supply pressure eased [28]. II. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.313 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.87%. The number of newly - laid hens in October is expected to decline compared to September [31]. - **Producing Area Shipment Volume**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main producing areas was 6,015.19 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.94%. As egg prices fell, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some traders and cold storage started to stock up, leading to an increase in shipment volume [37]. - **Old Hen Culling**: Last week, the total culling volume of old hens in sample points was 600,100, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%. The average culling age was 497 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week. Farmers were not confident about the future market and culled old hens in a timely manner [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Selling Area Sales Volume**: Last week, egg sales were 6,207.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. Sales were affected by the seasonal off - season. As prices fell to a low level, the market's bottom - fishing sentiment increased, and sales recovered moderately [45]. - **Selling Area Arrival Volume**: Last week, the arrival volume in the Beijing market was 92 trucks, a month - on - month increase of 6 trucks, an increase of 6.98%. The arrival volume in the Guangdong market was 453 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 20 trucks, a decrease of 4.23%. The arrival volume in different markets showed differentiation [49]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens was 2.0717 million, a month - on - month decrease of 256,500, a decline of 11.02%. Slaughter enterprises operated cautiously. If terminal demand does not improve significantly, the slaughter volume may remain low in the short term [50][52]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.27%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous day, a decrease of 7.86% [56]. - **Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit**: Last week, the cost of laying hen farming was 3.42 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty, a decline of 0.87%. The farming profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 yuan per catty, a decline of 86.67% [60]. III.后市展望 - In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. IV.操作策略 - **Single - side**: Hold short positions cautiously. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Construct a bear spread strategy [9][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract declined by 3.08%. Trade friction escalation increased market risk aversion. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, with the iron ore supply - demand balance weakening marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and iron ore is predicted to fluctuate [4][31]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options trading, and adopt a strategy of going long on iron ore and short on rebar for arbitrage [5][32][33] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The iron ore 2601 contract dropped 3.08% last week [4] 2. Important Market Information - On October 15, the China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, domestic steel demand is expected to decline. There is a transition from production control to carbon emission control, and green steel structures should be promoted [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $96.95 per ton, up $4.23 from the previous month [17] - As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [21] 4. Demand - side Situation - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire rod and rebar procurement volume are considered, but specific data trends are not fully detailed in the given text [22][27][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.59% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22% from the previous week and up 2.34% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87% from the previous week and down 19.05% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.0059 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.00659 million tons year - on - year [29] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, an increase of 2.5377 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1572 million tons, a decrease of 0.1128 million tons; the number of ships at ports increased by 23 [30] 6. Future Outlook - Due to the escalation of trade frictions last week, market risk aversion increased. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, the iron ore supply - demand balance will weaken marginally, but the downside space is limited, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate [31] 7. Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Stay on the sidelines [32] - Arbitrage: Go long on iron ore and short on rebar [33] - Options trading: Stay on the sidelines [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and moderately strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [3][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2510 of Shanghai copper futures mainly showed a wide - range oscillating market, with prices ranging from around 82,635 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 86,755 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of LME copper futures showed a wide - range oscillating trend, with contract prices running around 10,463 - 10,860 US dollars/ton [11] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In September 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. From January to September, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In September, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% month - on - month [2][14][40] - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [2][17][40] 3. Spot Analysis - As of October 17, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 84,835 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 84,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 530 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [20] - As of October 17, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained at around an increase of 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [20] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of October 16, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 40.8 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.08 US cents/pound [26] 5. Inventory Situation - As of October 17, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,240 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 137,450 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 5.69% [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 344,652 tons, an increase of 1,417 tons compared with the previous trading day [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,000 tons, the inventory in the Guangdong region was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in the Wuxi region was 37,600 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,300 tons compared with the previous week [30] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed will discuss interest rate cuts again at the meeting on October 28 - 29. As of last weekend, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October reached 97.3% [2][40] - The price of domestic copper concentrates continues to decline, and the copper smelting processing fee remains at a historical low. The inventory of Shanghai copper has little change, and the inventory level is at a moderate position in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to accumulate [2][40]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The overall futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. The reduction period of palm oil and the market's expectation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation support palm oil and soybean oil. However, warnings of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 and Sino - US trade tensions suppress biodiesel, putting downward pressure on palm oil and soybean oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient before the end of the year, soybean oil inventory is high, and demand is shrinking, lacking the impetus for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the oils and fats market [9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.55% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 1.38% to close at 9,308 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 1.99% to close at 9,861 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From October 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% - 16.2% month - on - month, alleviating market concerns about demand. Indonesia may raise the crude palm oil export levy to 15% to meet the subsidy funds required for the future B50 program, with the specific time undetermined. Malaysian palm oil fell 1.58% [7][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 2025/26 season, China has not purchased any US soybeans but has turned to Brazil, Argentina and other countries. Despite US soybean prices being lower than those in South America, due to the trade war and China's retaliatory tariffs (up to 20%), China's purchasing decision has become a political choice. US soybeans rose 1.39% this week [7][31]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of October 10, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 1.438 million tons. On October 15, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 598,000 tons [17]. - As of October 17, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 7,188,210 tons [20]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 264 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 62 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 295 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is consistent with the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the market [32].

研究报告 橡胶周报 基本面驱动不明显，盘面或将震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 的免责声明。 摘要： 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 14690-15300 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡下行，总体跌幅较大。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 截至 2025 年 10 月 17 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 14695 元/吨，当周下跌 620 点，跌幅 4.05%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 20 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡下行，总体跌幅较大。 展望后市，宏观方面，市场避险情绪升温，对大宗商品整 体氛围构成压制。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期东南亚主产 区天气扰动影响割胶进度，提振原料价格，国内外主产区持续 受到天气影响，割胶工作开展受限，提振原料价格维持高位， 但是随着天气扰动有所减轻，后续存在较强上量预期，供给支 撑有所减弱。9 月天然橡胶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a downward trend in volatility. The technical form is weak, and it may continue to test the support level of the 2,100 yuan integer mark. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [6][61] - Operational strategies include short - selling near - month contracts on rallies, holding reverse spreads, and constructing bear spread strategies [7][62] Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review (1) Futures Prices - After the holiday, the corn futures market was weak, showing a downward trend with low openings and continuous declines. As of last Friday's close, the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume reached 393,175 lots, and the open interest was 591,363 lots [4][10] - Last week, the CBOT corn main continuous contract closed at 413.5 cents per bushel, down 1.14% [15] (2) Spot Prices - Last week, the national weekly average price of corn was 2,336 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton. In the Northeast production area, the purchase price of new grain generally decreased. In North China, due to continuous rainfall delaying harvesting, the price fluctuated downward. In the sales area, new grain led the decline, and old grain followed. The price difference between new and old grain was 100 - 120 yuan/ton. Port prices first decreased and then stabilized [5][17] 2. Review of Relevant Information Last Week - Analysts expect that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending October 2, 2025, will be between 1.2 million and 2 million tons [21] - From January to August this year, Russia exported more than 287,000 tons of corn to China, three times the export volume of the same period last year [21] - In September, Brazil's corn export volume was 7.563 million tons, compared with 6.421 million tons in September last year. It is expected that Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 will be between 5.81 million and 6.3 million tons, with an average of 6.06 million tons, a 6.8% increase from October last year [21] - As of October 7, Kazakhstan had harvested 13.6 million tons of grain, accounting for 84.6% of the total area. As of October 8, Ukraine's grain export volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.937 million tons, a decrease of 4.8 million tons or 40.9% compared with the same period last year [21] - As of October 3, the daily average ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels per day, compared with 995,000 barrels per day in the previous week and 1.038 million barrels per day in the same period last year [22] - As of October 10, more than half of the autumn grain in the country had been harvested. By crop, the harvest of medium - season rice was nearly 60%, corn was over 50%, soybeans were 55%, and double - cropping late rice was sporadically harvested. By region, the harvest in the southwest was over 70%, in the northwest was over 50%, in the northeast was nearly 40%, in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was over 30%, in South China was nearly 30%, and in the Huang - Huai - Hai region was nearly 80%. As of October 10, Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 had reached 33.03 million tons [22] 3. Analysis of the Corn Supply - Demand Pattern (1) Feed Enterprise Inventory - As of October 9, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.49 days, a decrease of 0.72 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. During the holiday, the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly. The main reason was that enterprises mainly consumed previous orders, and the number of new purchase orders was limited. The demand from the downstream breeding end was relatively stable, and feed enterprises were not very enthusiastic about purchasing [26] (2) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Inventory - Last week, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises was 2.334 million tons, a 14.64% increase from before the holiday (2.036 million tons) and a 14% decrease year - on - year. Currently, new corn has entered the initial stage of listing, and traders are cautious. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased as production consumes inventory [29] (3) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Consumption - Last week, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.1927 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 31,600 tons. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [34] (4) Deep - processing Enterprise Startup Situation - Last week, the total national corn processing volume was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from before the holiday. The weekly national corn starch output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from before the holiday. The weekly startup rate was 51.81%, an increase of 2.36% from before the holiday. With the supply of new grain, the raw material procurement channels of enterprises have expanded, and the cost expectation has become stable, supporting the increase in the startup rate [39] (5) Deep - processing Enterprise Profit Situation - Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 235 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was - 81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it was - 178 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 79 yuan/ton. Deep - processing enterprises are generally in a loss range and adopt a "low inventory + fast turnover" strategy [44] 4. Analysis of Related Products (1) Corn Starch - Last week, the corn starch market was weak. The concentrated listing of new corn dragged down the price of corn starch, and downstream players were highly watchful. The mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang decreased compared with before the holiday [50][51] (2) Pigs - Last week, the pig price dropped significantly. As of last Friday, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a week - on - week decrease of nearly 9%. After the double festivals, the pig market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The supply of pigs from large - scale breeding enterprises remained high during the festivals, and after the festivals, the slaughter enterprise's startup rate decreased, and the price of white - striped pork fell in tandem with the pig price [59][60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. The moving - average lines on the chart show a bearish arrangement, with a weak technical pattern. It may continue to test the support level of the 2100 - yuan integer mark. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [6][61]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1.走势回顾 (Review of Trends) - **Futures Prices**: After the holiday, the corn futures market was weak, showing a downward - opening, low - running, and volatile downward trend. As of last Friday's close, the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous trading day. The market trading was active, with a trading volume of 393,175 lots and an open interest of 591,363 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 413.5 cents per bushel, down 1.14% [4][10][15]. - **Spot Prices**: The weekly average price of national corn last week was 2336 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the Northeast production area, the purchase price of new grain generally decreased. In North China, due to continuous rainfall delaying the harvest, the price fluctuated downward. In the sales area, new grain led the decline, and old grain followed. The price of ports first decreased and then stabilized. The purchase price of Shekou Port was 2370 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from before the National Day [5][17][20]. 3.2.上周相关信息回顾 (Review of Relevant Information Last Week) - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending October 2, 2025, would be between 1.2 million and 2 million tons. From January to August this year, Russia exported more than 287,000 tons of corn to China, three times the export volume of the same period last year. In September, Brazil's corn export volume was 7.563 million tons. In October 2025, Brazil's corn export volume is expected to be between 5.81 million and 6.3 million tons, with an average of 6.06 million tons, a 6.8% increase from October last year. As of October 7, Kazakhstan had harvested 13.6 million tons of grains. As of October 8, Ukraine's grain export volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.937 million tons, a decrease of 4.8 million tons or 40.9% from the same period last year. As of October 3, the daily average ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels per day. As of October 10, more than half of the autumn grain in the country had been harvested. As of October 10, Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 had reached 33.03 million tons [21][22]. 3.3.玉米供需格局分析 (Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern) - **Feed Enterprises' Inventory**: As of October 9, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from the previous week, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease and a 6.06% year - on - year decrease. During the holiday, the inventory slightly decreased because enterprises mainly consumed previous orders, with limited new purchase orders [26]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory**: The total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 2.334 million tons, a 14.64% increase from before the holiday but a 14% decrease year - on - year. The inventory decreased as new grain entered the market, and enterprises mainly made rigid replenishments for short - term production needs [29]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption**: Last week, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [34]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation**: Last week, the total corn processing volume was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from before the holiday. The weekly corn starch output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from before the holiday. The weekly startup rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from before the holiday [39]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation**: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 235 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Shandong, it was - 81 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Heilongjiang, it was - 178 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton month - on - month. Deep - processing enterprises generally adopted a "low - inventory + fast - turnover" strategy [44]. 3.4.关联品情况分析 (Analysis of Related Products) - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the corn starch market was weak. The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with before the holiday. The concentrated listing of new corn dragged down the price of corn starch, and downstream buyers were in a wait - and - see mood [50][51]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the pig price dropped significantly. As of last Friday, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. After the double festivals, the pig market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises decreased after October 5, and the price of white - striped pork fell in tandem with the pig price [59][60]. 3.5.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [61]. 3.6.操作策略 (Operation Strategies) - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for near - month contracts. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold reverse spreads. - **Options**: Construct a bear - spread strategy [7][62].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and the methanol market is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short term. Although the downward space may be limited, the high port inventory will continue to suppress prices. It is advisable to wait and see before the supply - demand situation improves and the port inventory is substantially reduced [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review Last week, the fundamentals of methanol were still weak, and the methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol futures closed at 2,314 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous week. The spot market was weak after the holiday due to high supply pressure, while the inland market was relatively stable. The price ranges in Jiangsu and Guangdong were 2,190 - 2,290 yuan/ton and 2,220 - 2,270 yuan/ton respectively [11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,032,905 tons, an increase of 103,580 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 89.59%, a week - on - week increase of 5.36% due to more restarts than overhauls [14]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 9, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed different trends. The MTO industry maintained high - level operation, while the capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, and glacial acetic acid decreased, and that of chlorides increased [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.08%, and the order backlog was 115,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57.79%. The port sample inventory was 1,543,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42% [19][21]. - **Profit**: Last week, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples showed differences. The coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, while the theoretical profits of coke - oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol were squeezed [23]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, domestic methanol production is expected to be about 2.0402 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.91%, an increase from last week. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rates of different downstream products are expected to change. The industry operating rate of olefins may decline slightly, while the capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether and formaldehyde are expected to increase, and those of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to decrease. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 333,700 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol will improve limitedly, and it will likely continue to fluctuate in the short term [27][28][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress the market. Although the supply side has slightly contracted, it has failed to effectively reverse the situation of loose supply and demand. The market is expected to lack upward momentum, and the market will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [9][40]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies in the single - side trading, conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and shorting on soda ash, and considering a bear spread option combination [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons or 0.85% from the previous week. Light soda ash production was 342,100 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 428,700 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons [7][10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 91.09% (unchanged), the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points, and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 90.16%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons or 3.74% from before the holiday (September 29). Light soda ash inventory was 739,100 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 920,700 tons, an increase of 17,500 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 9, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 710,900 tons, a decrease of 14.25% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 92.23%, a decrease of 14.41 percentage points [18]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of raw salt and coke was stable, and the soda ash price remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated at a low level [21]. - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The cost increased, while the soda ash price was stable, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of October 9, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 3rd. The weekly production of national float glass was 1.1289 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [28]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.469 million weight boxes or 5.85% from the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous period [29]. 3. Spot Market Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the report, only the names of relevant price trend charts are provided, including domestic light soda ash price trend, domestic heavy soda ash price trend, and soda ash basis trend [34][36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side contracted slightly, but weak demand was the core contradiction. After the National Day holiday, enterprise inventory increased significantly, especially the inventory pressure of light soda ash increased, indicating weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm. - The demand side was weak, with downstream enterprises mainly restocking as needed. New orders were average, resulting in a significant decline in the shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash enterprises this week. The industry's profit situation was still poor, and enterprises lacked the motivation to raise prices. - In the short term, high inventory and weak demand will continue to suppress the market. The market is expected to lack upward momentum and will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [40].