1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand has not started yet, the steel mill production end has little fluctuation, the molten iron output is expected to decline in March, the iron ore inventory is relatively high, and the overall fundamentals are relatively flat. Affected by the situation between the United States and Iran, the market risk aversion sentiment is high this week, and the trend is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. [5][30] - The operation strategies for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options are all to wait and see. [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract fell 0.46%. [4] 3.2 Disk Analysis - It includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port), and futures position net position analysis. [6][9][11] 3.3 Important Market Information - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will promote the ultra - low emission transformation of key industries with high quality, and complete the ultra - low emission transformation of 100 million tons of cement clinker and 50 million tons of coking production capacity in 2026. It will also focus on key regions to guide localities to carry out investigations and rectifications of inefficient and ineffective pollution control facilities in key industries and classified rectifications of traditional industrial clusters. [14] 3.4 Supply - side Situation - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipments were 6,111.2 tons, a decrease of 1,028.1 tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 1,889.1 tons, a decrease of 874.4 tons from the first half of the month. [18] 3.5 Demand - side Situation - It involves the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills. [22][24] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.93 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.87 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 53,400 tons. [27] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 170.9196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4564 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 2.9848 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 527,100 tons; the number of ships at the port decreased from 107 to 99. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 178.9130 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5918 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume decreased from 3.1353 million tons to 2.6089 million tons. In terms of components, Australian ore increased by 2.1016 million tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 807,700 tons; trade ore increased by 1.0572 million tons, coarse powder increased by 1.7951 million tons; lump ore increased by 199,900 tons, concentrate decreased by 252,900 tons, pellets decreased by 150,300 tons, and the number of ships at the port decreased from 111 to 101. [28] - In mid - February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.29 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.029 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.3% month - on - month; the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 18.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.01 million tons, a growth of 19.9%; an increase of 3.98 million tons from the beginning of the year, a growth of 28.2%; an increase of 1.99 million tons from the same period of the previous month, a growth of 12.3%. [28] - In January 2026, the crude steel output of 69 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 147.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. Among them, China's crude steel output was 75.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. [29] - In February 2026, the PMI of the steel industry in Hebei Province was 48.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1 percentage points, falling below the boom - bust line. [29] - As of February 25, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country was 8.9%, a lunar year - on - year increase of 1.5 percentage points; the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, a lunar year - on - year increase of 3.7 percentage points; the fund availability rate was 29%, a lunar year - on - year increase of 9.4 percentage points. Among them, the resumption rate of real estate projects was 8.2%, and the resumption rate of non - real estate projects was 9.2%. [29] 3.7 Market Outlook - The terminal demand has not started yet, the steel mill production end has little fluctuation, the molten iron output is expected to decline in March, the iron ore inventory is relatively high, and the overall fundamentals are relatively flat. Affected by the situation between the United States and Iran, the market risk aversion sentiment is high this week, and the trend is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. [5][30] 3.8 Operation Strategies - Single - side trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [5][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the domestic vegetable oil sector showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with weak oscillations and differentiated trends among varieties. The sudden escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has become the biggest uncertainty in the current market, which may push up the international crude oil price, boost the global biodiesel blending demand, and bring additional demand and upward price momentum to vegetable oils. Different types of oils have different supply - demand situations and price trends [6][12][89] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of the night session on February 27, 2026, the Y2605 soybean oil contract was reported at 8,220 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the P2605 palm oil contract was reported at 8,792 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract was reported at 9,216 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The BMD crude palm oil futures main contract closed up 0.87% at 4,040 ringgit/ton. As of the close on February 27, the CBOT May soybean contract was reported at 1,170 cents/bushel, up 0.56%; the CBOT May soybean oil contract was reported at 61.77 cents/pound, up 0.02% [6] 3.2 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in March at $938.87/ton, higher than $918.47/ton in February, and the export tariff on crude palm oil in March rose to $124/ton. From February 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil decreased by 12.29% month - on - month. In January, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil decreased by 13.78% to 1.5775 million tons, consumption increased by 12.78% to 360,600 tons, and exports increased by 11.44% to 1.4843 million tons. The USDA Annual Outlook Forum predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, and the soybean production would reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand was expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels. The USDA January report predicted that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 428.18 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from the previous month's forecast. In January 2026, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. Since March 1, 2026, a 5.9% anti - dumping duty has been imposed on imported rapeseed from Canada for 5 years [7][8][9][10][11] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Palm oil**: It is at the end of the traditional seasonal production - reduction cycle and will enter the production - recovery cycle after March. The current inventory in the producing areas is relatively high. The domestic palm oil inventory has started the seasonal accumulation cycle, and the terminal catering demand recovery is slow. However, if the crude oil price continues to rise, it will significantly increase the palm oil biodiesel blending profit and support the price [12][89] - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA has released a positive signal for the 2026 biofuel blending obligation. The global soybean supply pattern remains loose. The domestic soybean oil inventory will enter an accelerated accumulation cycle, but the increase in international oil prices will boost the industrial consumption demand for soybean oil and support the price in the short term [13][90] - **Rapeseed oil**: In February, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in domestic coastal oil mills was at a very low level in the past four years. After the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed is implemented, the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to improve, and the medium - and long - term supply will be loose. The direct impact of the geopolitical conflict on rapeseed oil is weaker than that on palm oil and soybean oil, but it can gain short - term follow - up momentum [14][90][91] 3.4 Operation Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Temporarily wait and see to avoid short - term sharp fluctuations - **Arbitrage**: None - **Options**: None [15][92] 3.5 Internal and External Market Operation - In February 2026, the domestic vegetable oil sector showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with weak oscillations and differentiated trends among varieties. The BMD crude palm oil futures main contract showed a weak oscillating trend in February. The CBOT soybeans oscillated upward, and soybean oil led the rise unilaterally [26][30][36] 3.6 Fundamental Dynamics - Similar to the macroeconomic dynamics part, including palm oil production in Malaysia, US soybean planting and production forecasts, global soybean supply and demand data, Canadian rapeseed crushing data, and China's anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed [37][38][39][40] 3.7 Domestic Oil Basis Changes - In February, the spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in China showed a trend of rising before the Spring Festival and falling after the festival. The spot basis of soybean oil in coastal mainstream markets fell from a high level and oscillated narrowly. The basis of rapeseed oil in coastal mainstream markets was firm before the Spring Festival and fell rapidly after the festival [46] 3.8 Three Major Oil Inventories - As of February 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil was 2.2794 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 0.32%, and a year - on - year decrease of 81,100 tons, a decrease of 3.44% [51] 3.9 Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm oil**: In December 2025, China's palm oil imports decreased. In February 2026, the total palm oil transactions of domestic key oil mills decreased. As of February 28, there was 1 palm oil purchase ship and 1 wash - out ship [55][61][62] - **Soybean oil**: In February 2026, the soybean oil production of domestic oil mills decreased. In December 2025, China's soybean oil imports decreased, and exports increased. In February 2026, the total transactions of domestic key oil mills' bulk soybean oil decreased [66][70][71][75] - **Rapeseed oil**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills in February 2026 increased from zero. The rapeseed crushing volume increased, and the rapeseed oil pick - up volume increased [79][84][88]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, with support mainly coming from the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow macro - level, geopolitical, and crude oil guidance [8][34][35] - In the future, methanol may show a moderately strong oscillation. Consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - In the week before the Spring Festival, affected by the overall decline of commodities, methanol futures declined and adjusted. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,193 yuan/ton, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week [5][13] - In the spot market, the coastal market's trading atmosphere weakened as the Spring Festival approached, with prices fluctuating slightly. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,170 - 2,240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton. In the inland market, pre - holiday inventory clearance was successful, and some local markets showed signs of recovery. The price in Ordos North ranged from 1,805 - 1,873 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2,180 - 2,190 yuan/ton [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: In the week before the Spring Festival, China's methanol production slightly declined to 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a 0.01% decrease [14] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 38.95%, a 0.75 - percentage - point increase; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.38%, a decrease; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased; the chloride capacity utilization rate increased to 78.52%; and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased to 18.51% [18][20] - **Inventory**: As of February 11, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.03 tons, a 7.61% decrease; the order backlog was 31.50 tons, a 9.75% increase. The port sample inventory was 143.22 tons, a 1.50% increase [21][24] - **Profit**: In the week of 20260206 - 0212, the theoretical profit of domestic sample methanol production processes improved. Coal - based production losses narrowed, coke - oven gas - based production profits increased, and natural - gas - based production profits remained stable [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: During the Spring Festival, it is expected that more domestic methanol plants will resume production than undergo maintenance. China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.072 billion tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 92.75%, a slight increase in production [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase if there are no unexpected device failures; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline; and the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to change little [32][33] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 43.43 tons during the Spring Festival, an increase. After the holiday, the inventory will gradually decrease. The port methanol inventory is expected to be stable or increase slightly after the Spring Festival, with a focus on the unloading speed of foreign vessels in Zhejiang and ship departures during the holiday [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The post - holiday A - share market will face a mixed situation. Supportive factors include robust consumption data, frequent industrial hotspots, and a warming overseas market, while disturbing factors are the huge post - holiday capital withdrawal pressure and uncertainties in US tariff policies. It is expected that the A - share market will show a relatively strong oscillation after the holiday, with structural opportunities likely concentrated in growth sectors such as AI and robotics with industrial catalysts. Investors should be flexible in operation and wait for the layout window after the capital pressure eases [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On February 13, the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.28% to 14100.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.57% to 3275.96 points. Most industry sectors declined, with the shipbuilding and aerospace sectors rising against the trend, and photovoltaic equipment, small metals, and other sectors leading the decline. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7]. - Last week, treasury bond futures showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had weekly returns of 0.24%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and - 0.01% respectively, with closing prices of 112.840 yuan, 108.505 yuan, 105.975 yuan, and 102.436 yuan [8]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market closed down collectively. The CSI 300 futures (IF) fell 0.23% to 4627.0, the SSE 50 futures (IH) dropped 0.53% to 3020.0, while the CSI 500 futures (IC) rose 1.94% to 8274.8, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) increased 2.48% to 8189.0 [10]. Fundamental Analysis - The central government's No. 1 document this year aims to build agriculture into a modern large - scale industry, with efforts from three aspects: integrating agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; connecting production, processing, and sales; and integrating agriculture, culture, and tourism [11]. - On February 24, the latest values of the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR will be announced. As of January 20, 2026, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged for the 8th consecutive month [11]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, which may be raised to 15%. The US government also announced exemption ranges [11]. - The new round of negotiations between the US and Iran ended without easing the situation. The US is tightening the "time - table", and the situation remains uncertain [11]. - After the Spring Festival holiday, a total of 2252.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market in the first week, with 1452.4 billion yuan, 4000 billion yuan, and 4000 billion yuan maturing on February 24, 25, and 26 respectively. Additionally, 3000 billion yuan of MLF and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on February 25 [11]. Valuation Analysis - As of February 13, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 14.01 times, with a quantile of 80.2%, and the PB was 1.48 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.51 times, with a quantile of 80.59%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 37.55 times, with a quantile of 87.84%, and the PB was 2.58 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 50.18 times, with a quantile of 82.94%, and the PB was 2.68 times [14]. - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26]. China - Buffett Index - On February 13, 2026, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 91.18%. The quantile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 91.04%, and in the last 10 - year data, it was 94.78% [30]. Comprehensive Analysis - In the week from February 9 to 13, the market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with significant differentiation in stock index futures. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 futures rose, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures fell slightly. The trading volume decreased daily, and the trading volume on the last trading day before the holiday was less than 2 trillion yuan [30][32]. - Pre - holiday factors dominated the market rhythm, with a decline in trading activity and a release of risk - aversion sentiment. After previous adjustments, the valuation quantiles of major broad - based indexes have declined, providing a certain safety margin for the post - holiday market. During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic consumption data was robust, industrial hotspots emerged, but there was a large - scale capital withdrawal pressure after the holiday. Overseas, the US stock market rose, the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated, but the uncertainty of US tariff policies increased [33]. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral trading: Consider buying on dips during the oscillation, but pay attention to the post - holiday capital withdrawal pressure and control the position. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the IM/IH spread convergence strategy, but be alert to style - switching signals. - Options: Use covered call writing to increase holding returns and consider buying out - of - the - money put options to hedge against post - holiday uncertainties [35].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Soda Ash: Supply Pressure Remains High, Short - term Reversal Unlikely" and is from Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - The research analyst is Hou Fan, and the report date is February 24, 2026 [5][7] Group 2: Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the price of the main soda ash futures contract ranged from 1,148 to 1,196 yuan/ton. As of February 13, 2026, the main contract dropped 40 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.36%, closing at 1,150 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of February 12, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash output was 792,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons or 2.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 85.18%, up 1.93% month - on - month [6][9] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.588 million tons, a 0.61% increase. Light soda ash inventory was 831,600 tons (down 800 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 756,400 tons (up 10,400 tons) [7][14] Shipment - As of February 12, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 785,400 tons, a 6.50% increase. The overall shipment rate was 99.13%, up 3.89 percentage points [16] Profit - As of February 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was - 32.50 yuan/ton, a 12.07% decline. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 89.25 yuan/ton, a 0.51% decline [19][23] Group 4: Downstream Industry Float Glass Industry - As of February 12, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 148,000 tons, a 1.2% decrease from February 5. The weekly output was 1.0452 million tons, a 1% month - on - month and 4.18% year - on - year decrease [26] - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million weight boxes, a 4.31% month - on - month increase and a 12.28% year - on - year decrease [31] Group 5: Price Analysis - Most soda ash and related product prices remained stable from February 5 to February 12, 2026, except for a 1.01% increase in 5500 - kcal thermal coal and a 5.37% decrease in synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu [37] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis and Suggestions - Before the Spring Festival, the soda ash futures price continued to decline weakly. The core market logic is the intensified contradiction between high - level supply and a demand vacuum. During the Spring Festival, the macro - level changes may provide marginal support, but the supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and a short - term reversal is unlikely [38] - Operational suggestions: For single - side trading, wait and see or try short on rebounds; for arbitrage, there is no suggestion; for options, consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [39]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Aluminum prices are likely to show a mainly fluctuating and strengthening trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the price of the main contract AL2603 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly fluctuated, ranging from around 23,080 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 23,800 yuan/ton [9] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In January 2026, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The industrial producer price index decreased 1.4% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points, and rose 0.4% month - on - month with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased 1.4% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, and rose 0.5% month - on - month with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points [6][13][14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation 3.1 Alumina - As of December 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, a decrease of 127,200 tons from the previous month and a 6.7% year - on - year increase. As of February 12, 2026, the domestic alumina inventory totaled 98,000 tons [19] 3.2 Aluminum Products and Alloys - As of December 2025, the monthly production of aluminum products was 6.1356 million tons, an increase of 204,600 tons from the previous month with no year - on - year change. The monthly production of aluminum alloys was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 86,000 tons from the previous month and a 13.7% year - on - year increase [25] 4. Inventory Situation 4.1 Global Visible Inventory - As of February 13, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 297,340 tons, an increase of 52,200 tons from the previous week. As of February 23, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 473,550 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 10.79% [31] 4.2 Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 861,100 tons, an increase of 37,900 tons from the previous day. The breakdown by region is provided in the report [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple market in 2026 has formed a game pattern of "supply - side support" and "demand - side drag". The strong reality of "low quantity, poor quality, and low inventory" on the supply side provides a solid bottom support for prices, while the weak expectation of "high price and low sales" on the demand side continuously suppresses the upward momentum. Apple prices are likely to fluctuate in the balance between supply support and demand pressure. High - quality goods may maintain relatively firm prices, while ordinary goods face price fluctuation pressure due to insufficient demand [6][54]. - The new - season apple production and quality decline, and low inventory strongly support prices. The current market is in a structural game stage of "spot support, futures strengthening, and distant contracts weakening". After the Spring Festival, the prices of medium - and low - grade farmer - sourced apples are likely to decline under pressure, while high - quality goods will remain stable and firm, showing a polarized price trend. The apple futures price may maintain a short - term weak and fluctuating trend [7][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, showed an oscillating upward trend, with a significant overall increase. As of the afternoon close on February 13, 2026, the AP2605 contract was reported at 9835 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton for the week, a rise of 3.15% [5][10]. - **Spot Prices**: - **Shandong**: In the week before the Spring Festival, the overall shipment volume in Shandong's apple - producing areas was still high. In the second half of the week, new packaging gradually ended, and the sales of farmer - sourced apples were limited. In Penglai, the mainstream price of 75 first - and second - grade farmer - sourced apples was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji farmer - sourced slice - red apples were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 farmer - sourced general goods were 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits were 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin [15]. - **Shaanxi**: Last week, the overall shipment in Shaanxi's apple - producing areas was average. The prices in Luochuan for 70 and above semi - commercial farmer - sourced apples were around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin for outbound, 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin for general goods, and 2.2 yuan/jin for high - grade inferior goods. In Baishui, 75 and above high - quality general farmer - sourced apples were about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [20]. 2. Producing Area Situation - As of February 13, 2026, the pre - festival apple trading in major producing areas such as Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu basically ended, with few actual transactions and little price change [21]. - **Shandong**: In Qixia, the inventory apple trading basically ended, and the prices of 80 first - and second - grade inventory paper - bagged Fuji were 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the inventory Fuji trading was dull [22]. - **Shaanxi**: In Luochuan, the pre - festival trading of inventory Fuji ended, and the price of 70 and above semi - commercial inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji was 4.10 - 4.30 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the pre - festival stocking of inventory Fuji basically ended, and the prices remained stable and weak [22]. - **Shanxi**: In Yuncheng's Linfen, the e - commerce in cold storage continued to purchase, and the prices were basically stable [23]. - **Gansu**: In Jingning, the inventory Fuji trading basically ended, and the prices changed little [23]. 3. Inventory Situation - The peak storage volume of this season's late - Fuji apples was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of February 11, 2026, the total apple cold - storage inventory in major producing areas was 5.8815 million tons, a decrease of 316,500 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed slightly slowed down [31]. - **Shandong**: The inventory ratio in Shandong's apple - producing areas was 45.07%, a decrease of 1.98% from the previous week [31]. - **Shaanxi**: The inventory ratio in Shaanxi's apple - producing areas was 46.74%, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week [31]. - **Other Areas**: The inventory ratios in Gansu, Shanxi, and Liaoning decreased by 3.75%, 2.01%, and 2.53% respectively from the previous week [32]. 4. Sales Area Situation - In the week before the Spring Festival, the number of early - morning arriving trucks in Guangzhou's Chalong market increased significantly. The market sales improved, and the goods were cleared quickly. The market selling prices were chaotic, with price - cut sales [36]. 5. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - Last week, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [40]. 6. Key Fruit Market - As of the 7th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six key fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.99 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.10 yuan/kg. Most of the six types of fruits rose this week, except for pineapples [44]. 7. Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples will increase quarter - on - quarter in the first quarter of 2026 [49]. 8. Production Statistics - In 2025, the national apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.01%. The production in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, while that in Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning increased [51]. 9. Market Outlook - The apple market in 2026 is in a game between supply - side support and demand - side drag. After the Spring Festival, the prices of medium - and low - grade farmer - sourced apples may decline under pressure, while high - quality goods will remain stable. The short - term apple futures prices may fluctuate weakly [54]. 10. Operation Strategies - The main contract of apple futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider shorting lightly at high prices. For arbitrage, consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract. For options, consider buying long - term put options at an appropriate time [56][57].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the pre - and post - holiday situation of the pig futures and spot markets, analyzing the price trends, supply - demand relationship, and providing corresponding operation strategies [5][7][8] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Price - Before the holiday week, the pig futures market fluctuated weakly. As of February 13, the main LH2605 contract was reported at 11,500 yuan/ton, down 0.22%, with a trading volume of 38,318 lots, an open interest of 136,660 lots, and a daily decrease of 4,468 lots [5][13] Spot Price - Before the holiday week, the pig price continued to decline. As of February 13, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the beginning of the week, a decline of 3.9% [7][16] - Due to high pre - holiday piglet prices and low market acceptance, the piglet price decreased before the holiday, with a national average weekly price of 357.14 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/head compared to the previous period [18] - The market for 50 - kg binary sows was inactive, with an average price of 1,429 yuan/head, and the enthusiasm for replenishment by reserve farmers was low [21] - The price of culled sows decreased with the decline of pig prices, with a national average price of 8.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 4.12% [23] Spread Situation - The basis between the pig futures and the spot market narrowed. As of February 13, the basis was 930 yuan/ton [27] - The standard - fat spread was - 1.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg from the beginning of the week [29] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - In January, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale sample farms increased by 0.02% month - on - month and decreased by 0.41% year - on - year; in small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 0.36% month - on - month and 1.82% year - on - year [32] - The inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale sample farms in January was 36.6634 billion, a decrease of 0.70% month - on - month and an increase of 4.24% year - on - year; in small and medium - sized sample enterprises, it was 1.5556 billion, a decrease of 0.02% month - on - month and an increase of 8.59% year - on - year [40] - In January, the proportion of piglets weighing 7 - 49 kg was 32.86%, 50 - 89 kg was 28.99%, 90 - 140 kg was 36.62%, and over 140 kg was 1.53%, with month - on - month changes of - 0.33%, - 0.13%, 0.34%, and 1.43% respectively [46] - In January, the slaughter volume of large - scale sample farms was 11.3979 billion, a decrease of 3.27% month - on - month and an increase of 10.7% year - on - year; in small and medium - sized sample farms, it was 544.1 million, a decrease of 0.71% month - on - month and an increase of 11.02% year - on - year [50] - As of February 10, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises was 54.27%, with the slaughter advancing before the holiday and the enterprises actively adjusting the slaughter rhythm due to weak post - holiday expectations [53][55] Demand Side - Before the holiday week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 45.97%, an increase of 7.48% month - on - month, supported by pre - holiday stocking demand [59] - Before the holiday, the fresh sales rate of slaughtering enterprises was 88.55%, an increase of 0.37% month - on - month, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17%, unchanged from the previous period [63] Cost - profit Situation - Before the holiday, the pig - breeding profit fluctuated around the break - even point. As of February 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model had an average loss of 62.32 yuan per head, while the model of purchasing piglets had an average profit of 22.3 yuan per head [69] Group 4: Market Outlook - After the holiday, the market will enter the traditional off - season for consumption. The market will continue to have a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the pig price will face downward pressure in the short term [8][70] - In the medium term, attention should be paid to the post - holiday slaughter rhythm, piglet replenishment sentiment, and the culling progress of breeding sows. After the second quarter, the pig price is expected to recover [8][70] Group 5: Operation Strategies - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [9][71] - For arbitrage, the near - term contracts are under pressure from the abundant post - holiday supply and still have room to decline in the short term; the far - term contracts are less affected by the spot pressure and have relatively strong support [9][71] - For options, no operation is recommended [9][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract fell 2.48%. During the long - holiday, the iron ore spot market was quiet, with few inquiries, quotes, and transactions. The Singapore iron ore swap declined slightly. It's expected that post - holiday restocking demand from steel mills will be low, providing limited support to the market. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons [4][30][31]. 3.2 Market Outlook - After the holiday, it's expected that steel mills' restocking demand will be low, offering limited support to the futures market. It is advised to stay on the sidelines [5][32]. 3.3 Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][33]. 3.4 Important Market Information - On February 16th, President Xi Jinping's article emphasized that in 2026, economic work should focus on key points, adhere to domestic - demand leadership, and build a strong domestic market. - On February 18th, Fortescue applied to the Western Australian EPA to build a 12 - million - ton - per - year Wyloo North iron ore project in the Pilbara region. - On February 21st, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods starting from February 24th, which was later raised to 15%. Trump also claimed that the US trade deficit had decreased by 78% [13][14]. 3.5 Supply - Side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month. - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 61.112 million tons, a decrease of 10.281 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's shipment volume was 18.891 million tons, a decrease of 8.744 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21]. 3.6 Demand - Side Situation - The report mentions data sources for 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, 247 steel mills' profitability rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire - rod procurement volume, but no specific data is provided [23][24][27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.211 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.746 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons. - Rio Tinto expects the unit cash cost (FOB basis) of Pilbara iron ore in 2026 to be between $23.5 and $25 per wet ton. - By the end of 2025, over 80% of China's crude steel production capacity achieved ultra - low emissions. The energy consumption of blast furnaces and converters in 143 enterprises decreased by 2.5% and 12.2% respectively compared to 2023, saving 13.2 million tons of standard coal and reducing 34 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [30][31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures declined and adjusted due to weak fundamentals. The methanol weighted price closed at 2,248 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 3.19% drop from the previous week. The methanol supply was sufficient while the demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals remained weak. The support mainly came from the macro - face and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - face, geopolitics, and crude oil [4][6][7] - In the future, methanol may fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, affected by weak fundamentals, methanol futures declined. Spot prices in ports were weak, and inland prices continued to fall. The price range of Ordos North Line in the main production area was 1,785 - 1,798 yuan/ton, and the price range of Dongying in the downstream was 2,145 - 2,160 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production increased to 2,061,085 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.26%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 5, the olefin开工率 increased, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained flat, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,300 tons, a 13.16% decrease. The order backlog increased by 21,400 tons to 287,100 tons, an 8.05% increase. The port sample inventory decreased by 61,100 tons to 1.411 million tons, a 4.15% decrease [20][22] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material side was stable and slightly stronger, and methanol prices fluctuated. The theoretical profits of different process routes for methanol production showed different trends [26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more methanol plants are expected to resume production than to undergo maintenance. The estimated methanol production is about 2.073 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 92.79%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin开工率 is expected to continue to rise; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decline; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decline; the chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly [30][31] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to slightly decrease to 365,500 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate, and the accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and the change in提货量 [31]