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甲醇周报:基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇向好驱动不足-20251124
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 05:12
研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇向好驱动不足 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员:宋鹏 期货从业资格证号:F0295717 投资咨询资格证号:Z0011567 电话:15693075965 邮箱:2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 证监许可【2012】1087 号 摘要: 投资咨询业务资格: 上周,甲醇供需延续弱势,甲醇期货继续下跌,至周五下午 收盘,甲醇加权收于 2036 元/吨,较前一周下跌 1.97%。 【基本面】 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 上周,国内甲醇装置复产多于检修,甲醇产量再次上升,供 给端支撑依旧乏力。上周甲醇下游烯烃开工率小幅上升,甲醇下 游需求总体平稳。库存方面,上周甲醇样本生产企业库存下降, 企业待发订单量上升,显示甲醇下游刚需仍在。上周港口甲醇在 刚需及货源倒流内地的支撑下,港口甲醇库存下降较为明显,但 总体仍在高位,港口甲醇库存对价格仍形成压力。利润方面,随 着甲醇现货价格持续下降,上周甲醇企业利润继续下滑。综合来 看,甲醇基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇现货价仍然弱势。 【后市展望】 后续来看,甲醇 ...
整数关口博弈加剧,供需格局主导后市节奏
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:21
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the corn futures market showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, with the main contract reaching a phased high on Friday. The market sentiment was relatively strong. In the short - term, the market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation. The current strong reluctance of farmers to sell and the obstruction of corn circulation, along with the significant depletion of downstream enterprise inventories and the release of rigid restocking demand, provide support for corn prices. However, the sharp increase in imported corn arrivals in October and the increasing expectation of wheat auctions may have an indirect impact on the corn market demand [8][79]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - The price of the domestic corn futures main contract C2601 first declined and then rebounded last week. As of the close on Friday, it was reported at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, with a trading volume of 823,020 lots and an open interest of 949,440 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 437.75 cents per bushel last week [14][19]. (2) Spot Price - The national average weekly price of corn last week was 2,243 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton. In the Northeast, prices in Jilin and Liaoning rose. In North China, some enterprises raised prices to attract supply. In the southern ports, prices increased, while in the northern ports, prices were stable after an initial rise [24]. (3) Basis - As of last Friday, the basis of corn in Dalian area against the main contract was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and it was at the historical average level seasonally [26]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Ukraine has completed 84% of its planned grain harvest area as of November 13, with a harvest of 47.937 million tons [27]. - The EU's 27 - country grain exports from July 1 to November 9 increased by 16% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 32% [27]. - The US Department of Agriculture's November report adjusted the US 2025/26 corn production, export, and ending inventory. The global corn production, usage, and export were also adjusted, with a slight decrease in ending inventory [27][28]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting progress as of November 12 was 36.6% of the expected area, slightly behind last year [28]. - There were various results from China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auctions and procurement in different regions from November 17 - 21 [29][30][31]. - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending November 13 was 2.053932 million tons, exceeding market expectations [30]. - Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting progress was 85% as of November 13, and the expected export volume in November is 6.36 million tons [30][34]. - South Korea's feed - related enterprises had multiple corn procurement activities [31][33][35]. - The IGC raised the 2025/26 global corn production forecast by 1 million tons to 129.8 million tons [36]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's Corn Auction - There were 17 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 200,916 tons and an actual成交 volume of 65,705 tons, a成交 rate of 32.7%. There were 2 sales auctions, with a 100%成交 rate. There were no trading in two - way and imported corn auctions [39][41]. (2) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of November 20, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 26.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 days, or 2.42%, but a year - on - year decrease of 9.58% [44]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - As of November 20, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.727 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.02% [50]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3831 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.34 million tons week - on - week. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [54]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup - Last week, the processing volume, output, and startup rate of the corn starch industry all decreased slightly. The weekly processing volume was 612,400 tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons from the previous week; the output was 315,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; and the weekly startup rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% [59]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Due to the rise in corn raw material prices, the production profit of downstream deep - processing enterprises decreased. The hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with the previous week [64]. (7) Import and Export - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons, or 43.1%. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.84 million tons, or 90% [67]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,691 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. Prices in different regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang had different changes [71][73]. (2) Pigs - Last week, the spot and futures prices of pigs continued to decline. The national average pig slaughter price was 11.55 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg, or 2.04%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.39% [78]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 (1)后市展望 - The short - term corn market may maintain a moderately strong oscillation, supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, restocking demand from downstream enterprises, but affected by increased imports and wheat auction expectations [79]. (2)操作策略 - For unilateral trading, hold long positions cautiously and verify the effectiveness of the 2,200 - yuan key level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [80].
市场悲观,油脂冲高回落
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the prices of vegetable oil futures rose first and then fell. The uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decrease in palm - oil exports in Malaysia from November so far led to the decline of the international vegetable oil market, which in turn drove the overall decline of domestic vegetable oil futures prices. - For soybean oil, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dampens market confidence. Domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with sufficient supply, and the inventory is expected to remain high. - For rapeseed oil, the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds weakens the market's concern about future supply. - For palm oil, both the international and domestic markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lack positive support. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will be weak in the near future. [9][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, the soybean oil Y2601 contract fell 0.80% to close at 8,190 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2601 contract fell 1.09% to close at 8,550 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2601 contract fell 1.08% to close at 9,816 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 828,680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month. According to shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 are expected to be 471,222 tons, a 40.6% decrease from the same period last month. Malaysia's palm oil fell 1.38%. [7][30] - **Soybean Oil**: The International Grains Council lowered the global soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 1.6 million tons to 426.4 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous year, but still much higher than the recent average. Argentina's soybean production forecast was lowered to 47.8 million tons, China's to 20.9 million tons, and India's to 13.3 million tons. US soybeans rose 0.36% this week. [7][30] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [13] 3.4 Other Data - As of November 19, 2025, the national soybean - oil inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 1.373 million tons, and the national commercial palm - oil inventory increased by 6.60 million tons to 0.689 million tons. [17] - As of November 20, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,170,220 tons. [19] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [22] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [24]
供需矛盾并不明显,盘面或将维持震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:09
研究报告 橡胶周报 供需矛盾并不明显,盘面或将维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 投资咨询资格证号:Z0011566 电话:0931-8894545 邮箱:2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要: 【行情复盘】 研究员:张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 15125-15580 元/吨 之间运行,上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡运行,总体微幅上涨。 期货从业资格证号:F0305828 截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日上周五下午收盘,天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15240 元/吨,当周上涨 25 点,涨幅 0.16%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡运行,总体微幅 上涨。 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 展望后市,宏观方面,受非农数据影响,美联储降息预期 减弱,影响商品情绪。从基本面来看,供给方面,橡胶成本端 存在支撑。10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加,1-10 月,中 国累计进口天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面,上周轮胎企 业开工率较上周均有下降,全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终 端车市方面, ...
纯碱周报:纯碱供需双弱,趋势未改-20251124
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the price center moving further down. Although there were production cuts in some enterprises on the supply side, the high inventory pressure was not substantially relieved, continuously suppressing market sentiment. On the demand side, the light soda ash market improved slightly, but the demand for heavy soda ash remained weak. The continuous weakness of the downstream float glass market also dragged down the soda ash price. The cost - end support and the loose supply - demand pattern formed a game. Overall, the soda ash market was operating weakly, but the further downward space might be limited due to cost support [9][39] Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons, a decline of 2.50%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 324,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,700 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 396,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons [10] - The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, the previous value was 84.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous Monday, a decline of 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons. Compared with a week ago, it decreased by 62,900 tons, a decline of 3.68%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.6481 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons, a decline of 0.23% [15] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On November 20, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79 percentage points. During the week, the production cuts of soda ash enterprises increased, the supply showed a downward trend, and supported by the pending orders, the enterprises shipped well, the inventory of individual enterprises decreased, and the overall shipment rate increased [17] (4) Profit Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese soda ash by the combined - soda process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 28.50 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw - material mine salt fluctuated downward, the price of steam coal increased slightly, the cost - end prices rose and fell, and the comprehensive cost decreased slightly; while the price of light soda ash increased, so the double - ton profit of the combined - soda process eased slightly but remained at a low level [20] - As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of sea salt on the cost side increased slightly, the price of anthracite remained stable, and the cost side increased slightly; the soda ash price was stable and firm without obvious adjustment, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process showed a downward trend [24] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of November 20, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% compared with the 13th. The weekly (November 14 - 20, 2025) production of national float glass was 1.1102 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 0.08% [29] (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 30.72%. The converted inventory days were 27.7 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared with the previous period [33] 3. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market was in a weak supply - demand pattern last week, with the price center moving further down. The high inventory pressure on the supply side was not relieved, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak. The cost - end support and the loose supply - demand pattern formed a game. The market was operating weakly, but the further downward space might be limited [9][39] 4. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Short - term shock is weak, but excessive short - chasing is not advisable - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Choose the right time to use the covered - call strategy to increase returns [40]
华龙期货铁矿周报-20251124
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:09
研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员:魏云 期货从业资格证号:F3024460 投资咨询资格证号:Z0013724 电话:17752110915 邮箱:497976013@qq.com *特别声明:本报告基于公开信息编制而成,报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出,仅供投资者参考,据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 基本面: 据 Mysteel,上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.19%,环比减少 0.62%,同比增加 0.26%;日均铁水产量 236.28 万吨,环比减少 0.60 万吨, 同比增加0.48万吨,钢厂盈利率37.66%,环比减少1.30%,同比减少16.89%, 全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 1.5 亿吨,环比下降 75.06 万吨;日均疏 港量 329.92 万吨,增 2.97 万吨。 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 后市展望:全球铁矿发运量回升,港口库存在此前大幅上升后,上 ...
基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇或延续弱势
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:39
研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇或延续弱势 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员:宋鹏 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格: 上周,甲醇供需延续弱势,甲醇期货继续下跌,至周五下午 收盘,甲醇加权收于 2077 元/吨,较前一周下跌 2.63%。 【基本面】 期货从业资格证号:F0295717 投资咨询资格证号:Z0011567 电话:15693075965 邮箱:2463494881@qq.com 上周,国内甲醇装置检修多于复产,甲醇产量下降,但供给 端支撑依旧有限。甲醇下游烯烃开工率延续下降,甲醇需求继续 减弱。库存方面,上周甲醇样本生产企业库存下降,企业待发订 单量上升,显示甲醇下游刚需仍在。上周港口甲醇维持刚需,港 口甲醇库存小幅上升。利润方面,甲醇需求偏弱而成本上升,上 周甲醇企业利润延续下滑。综合来看,甲醇基本面依旧偏弱,甲 醇现货价仍然弱势。 【后市展望】 后续来看,甲醇市场"高供应、高库存、弱需求"的核心矛 盾短期内难以根本改善,行情仍将以 ...
纯碱周报:成本托底,或支撑纯碱价格-20251117
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 03:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash market showed a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals presented a situation of weak supply and demand. Although some enterprises' device reduction led to a narrow contraction in supply and manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, high inventory pressure still existed, and the flat terminal demand restricted the upward price space. The relatively strong price of thermal coal at the cost end provided some support for soda ash, but the oversupply pattern did not change substantially, and the market lacked a driving force for a trending rise, continuing the oscillation trend overall. Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies while being vigilant about the low - level cost support risk, paying attention to the spread opportunities between near - and far - month contracts, and considering inter - period arbitrage opportunities after the price rebounds to the resistance level, as well as using the covered call strategy to increase returns when appropriate [8][36][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within the range of 1188 - 1247 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon closing on November 14, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 rose 16 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.32%, closing at 1226 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of November 13, 2025, the domestic soda ash output was 739,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,600 tons, a decline of 1.01%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 328,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,700 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 410,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 73.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.17%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.49%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08% [7][9][11]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from the previous Thursday, a decline of 0.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 800,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 907,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 59,200 tons, a rise of 3.59% [7][14]. - **Shipment**: On November 13, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 746,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.93%, a week - on - week increase of 2.57 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of November 13, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 23.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Output**: As of November 13, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,100 tons, the same as on the 6th. The weekly output of national float glass from November 7 - 13, 2025 was 1.1139 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 0.76% [26]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 111,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 33.61%. The inventory days were 27.5 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with the previous period [30]. 3.4 Price Changes The report shows the weekly price changes of various products, including thermal coal, raw salt, light and heavy soda ash, float glass, photovoltaic glass, caustic soda, ammonium chloride, and synthetic ammonia. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 40 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.08%, and the price of float glass decreased by 11 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.95% [35].
铝周报:电解铝产能小幅下降,沪铝或震荡偏强运行-20251117
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 03:36
研究报告 铝周报 电解铝产能小幅下降,沪铝或震荡偏强运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格: 期货从业资格证号:F0305841 投资咨询资格证号:Z0016251 电话:0931-8582647 邮箱:451591573@qq.com 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 摘要: 【基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员:刘江 国家统计局数据显示,10 月份,规模以上工业增加值同比实 际增长 4.9%(增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率)。从 环比看,10 月份,规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.17%。1—10 月份,规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%。CME"美联储观察" 数据显示,目前美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 50.7%,维 持利率不变的概率为 49.3%。氧化铝在产产能小幅下降,氧化铝 总产能维持高位。电解铝企业开工率小幅下降,电解铝在产产能 出现下降。沪铝库存小幅上升,库存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铝库存逐步增长。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡偏强趋势为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建议 观望为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期,经 ...
华龙期货铁矿周报-20251117
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 03:36
研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员:魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号:F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号:Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话:17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱:497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期:2025 | 11 | 月 | 17 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 行情回顾:上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.91%。 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 基本面:国家统计局数据显示,2025 年 10 月,中国粗钢产量 7200 万 吨,同比下降 12.1%。1-10 月,中国粗钢产量 81787 万吨,同比下降 3.9%。 据 Mysteel,上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.81%,环比减少 0.3 ...