Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the steel price is expected to fluctuate. The price of the rebar 2605 contract rose by 0.03% in February. The global and Chinese crude steel production decreased in 2025. The rebar inventory accumulated in line with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal pattern but was still at a low level year - on - year. The demand side remained weak, and the rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [5][1][33] - Operational strategies: For single - side trading, take a bullish stance on dips; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures price**: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented [7] - **Spot price**: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and spread**: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific data analysis is provided [13] Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work conference, aiming to continue building a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and strengthen the central bank's macro - prudential management function [16] - In 2025, national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 73982.0 billion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. The steel industry's profit was 1098.3 billion yuan, up 299.2% year - on - year, while the coal mining and washing industry's profit was 3520.0 billion yuan, down 41.8% year - on - year [16] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and market demand was insufficient [16] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year; the real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan; and the personal housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan [16] Supply - side and Demand - side Situations - **Supply - side**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills are mentioned, but no detailed data is provided [18][20] - **Demand - side**: In January 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, down 4% month - on - month; the purchasing manager index for the steel circulation industry was 47.1, down 0.9% month - on - month [24] Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [32] - In 2025, China's crude steel production was about 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%, dropping below 1 billion tons for the first time since reaching its peak in 2020 [32] Market Outlook - At the end of January, the weekly social inventory of rebar was 3.264 million tons, up 7.7% month - on - month and down 27.5% year - on - year. The inventory accumulation conformed to the pre - Spring Festival seasonal rule, but the demand side remained weak. The rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [33] Operational Strategies - Single - side trading: Take a bullish stance on dips - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34]

研究报告 鸡蛋月报 春节备货驱动蛋价反弹，期现分化凸显市场预期差 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 1 月，鸡蛋期货主力换月至 2603 合约，盘面整体呈现震荡走 势，全月最高价 3101 元/500 千克，最低价 2970 元/500 千克，截 至上周五，鸡蛋主力 JD2603 合约报收 3002 元/500 千克，跌 1.51%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 1 月鸡蛋市场受春节备货节日效应提振，整体走势偏强，蛋 价涨幅显著，主产区鸡蛋月均价 3.51 元/斤，环比涨 0.49 元/斤， 主销区均价 3.52 元/斤，环比涨 0.45 元/斤，截至 1 月 30 日鸡蛋 基差达 998 元/500 千克，处于近期高位，现货端强势上行与期货 盘面形成明显分化；蛋价上涨带动养殖端补栏积极性提 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | 年 日星期一 报告日期：2026 2 2 | 月 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约下跌 0.06%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79%，环比 增加 0.32%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.47%，环比减少 0.04%；钢 厂盈利率 39.39%，环比减少 1.30%；日均铁水产量 227.98 万吨， 环比减少 0.12 万吨。Mysteel 统计全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总 量 1.7 亿吨，环比增加 255.73 万吨；日均疏港量 332.31 万吨，增 21.58 万吨；在港船舶数量 106 条，降 12 条。 单边：逢 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 供需偏弱 VS 预期改善，甲醇或偏强震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，受甲醇进口预期缩减的提振，甲醇期货偏强运行，至 周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2298 元/吨，较前一周上涨 2.64%。 【基本面】 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 上周，国内甲醇产量继续下降，但开工率仍在高位运行，供 给端仍呈现压力为主。上周甲醇下游烯烃开工率继续下降，尤其 是江浙地区 MTO 开工率继续明显下降，甲醇下游需求仍然偏弱。 库存方面，上周甲醇样本企业库存下降，企业待发订单量上升， 反映甲醇刚需仍在。上周港口卸货正常而需求偏弱，港口甲醇库 存再次上升。利润方面，上周原料端价格稳中偏弱，但甲醇走势 更弱，甲醇企业亏损总体上升。综合来看，供应充足，需求不足， 导致厂家出货竞争激烈，港口库存同步高企 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 多空交织，油脂震荡反弹 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | 电话：13609351809 | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 7 | | 年 月 星期一 报告日期：2026 01 26 | 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡反弹，全周豆油 Y2605 合约上涨 0.97%， 以 8094 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2605 合约上涨 2.72%以 8910 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2605 合约下跌 0.72%，以 8991 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 7 榈油方面：船运调查机构称，1 月份头 20 天，马来西亚棕榈 油出口环比增长 8.6%到 11.4%。南马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPPOMMA） 的数据显示，2026 年 1 月 1-20 日，南马来西亚棕榈油产量环比 减少 16.06%。马棕榈油上涨 2.91%。 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 26 星期一 豆油 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 | 1 | 月 | 26 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 1.21%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.68%，环比减少 0.16%，同比增加 0.70% ；钢厂盈利率 40.69%，环比上周增加 0.86%，同 比去年减少 8.23%；日均铁水产量 228.1 万吨，环比增加 0.09 万吨，同比 增加 2.65 万吨。全国 45 个港口进口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of natural rubber futures last week showed a significant increase, with a prior decline followed by a rise. In the future, due to the bottom - cycle reversal logic of the chemical industry, the strong performance of synthetic rubber will drive the overall rise of the rubber sector, and the short - term sentiment may continue. The supply side still has certain pressure, while terminal consumption is good, and the inventory accumulation speed has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of natural rubber present a multi - empty game situation. Affected by the strong chemical sector and the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, the futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the overall macro sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather disturbances and raw material output in the main rubber - producing areas, inventory accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and changes in terminal demand [8][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber futures main contract RU2605 fluctuated between 15,525 - 16,340 yuan/ton, with a prior decline followed by a rise and a significant overall increase. As of the close on Friday afternoon, January 23, 2026, the main contract was reported at 16,315 yuan/ton, up 480 points or 3.03% for the week [6][15]. 现货价格 - As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,190 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [20][24]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with the previous week. As of January 23, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 315 yuan/ton, an expansion of 180 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic and international prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared with the previous week [28][31]. Important Market Information - A series of international events such as the Greenland issue, US economic data, and IMF's economic outlook updates were reported. The 2025 Chinese economic data showed that GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, and the automobile industry had good performance with production and sales reaching new highs. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [32][35][36]. Supply - Side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in the main natural - rubber - producing countries showed different trends. The total production in November was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%, and the cumulative output was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.01% [42][46][50]. Demand - Side Situation - As of January 22, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. As of December 31, 2025, China's automobile production and sales in December decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the annual production and sales reached new highs. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks in December increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings increased year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month. The automobile sales in major global countries also showed different trends [58][62][65]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of January 23, 2026, the natural - rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,480 tons from the previous week. As of January 18, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 17,000 tons or 1.3%, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased by 16,700 tons or 2.94% [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Domestic rubber - producing areas have fully stopped tapping, providing support for rubber prices. Some main producing areas are entering the low - production period, but Thailand's southern region is still in the peak - production period, so the supply side still has pressure. Import volume increased in 2025. Demand side: The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The automobile market had good annual performance but a decline in December. Tire exports increased. Inventory side: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and Qingdao's total inventory continued to rise, but the inventory - accumulation rate decreased slightly [87][88]. 后市展望 - The overall situation is similar to the core view, emphasizing the driving effect of the chemical industry and synthetic rubber on the rubber sector, the pressure on the supply side, good terminal consumption, and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. The futures market is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [89][90]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: The main natural - rubber futures contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the short - term callback risk and the pressure around 16,500 yuan/ton. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive traders can consider going long lightly on dips; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [91][92].

沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究报告 铅周报 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月份，规模以上工业增加 值同比实际增长 5.2%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长 率）。从环比看，12 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.49%。 2025 年，规模以上工业增加值比上年增长 5.9%。铅加工费变化不 大，价格水平处于底部区域。2025 年 12 月铅产量有所增长，并 维持在近年来较高位置。沪铅库存出现下降，库存水平处于近年 来极低位。LME 铅库存小幅下降，库存水平仍然处于近年来高位。 【后市展望】 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建议观望 为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铅供给变化 超预期。 *特别 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks a unilateral driver, with prices oscillating between the short - term benefit of inventory reduction and the long - term negative of future supply pressure. The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern with limited upside potential. It is recommended to go short on rallies for single - side trading, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to collect premiums in the oscillating market [8][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures oscillated within the range of 1159 - 1215 yuan/ton, with the oscillation narrowing. As of January 23, 2026, the main contract SA2605 of soda ash futures rose 6 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.50%, closing at 1198 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of January 22, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.46%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.42%, down 0.40% from the previous value. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27% from the previous week; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89% from the previous week [6][9][11] 3.2.2 Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 152.12 tons, a decrease of 2.30 tons from Monday, a decline of 1.49%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a decrease of 2.49 tons from the previous week. The inventory at the same time last year was 142.95 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.17 tons, an increase of 6.41% [7][14] 3.2.3 Shipment - As of January 22, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 82.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27 percentage points [16] 3.2.4 Profit - As of January 22, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of soda ash by the co - production method in China was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 96.30 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][23] 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry Output - As of January 22, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 15.07 tons, the same as on the 15th. The weekly output of national float glass from January 16 - 22, 2026, was 105.52 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95% [28] 3.3.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 5321.6 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 20.3 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day from the previous period [31] 3.4 Price Analysis - Most of the prices of domestic soda ash in various regions remained stable from January 15 to 22, 2026. The price of动力煤 (5500 kcal) decreased by 1.14%, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 2.41%, while the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 0.45% [36] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The market is in a situation of "long - short game under weak supply - demand balance". The short - term support comes from the slight decrease in supply and the improvement in shipment, while the long - term negative is the high - level capacity utilization rate and large absolute inventory. The downstream demand is weak, and the industry profit is low. It is recommended to go short on rallies for single - side trading, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination [37]

研究报告 能繁去化不及预期 供应压制磨底延续 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 市场对上半年生猪出栏压力延续的担忧持续升温，引发盘面 集中抛压，上周生猪期货盘面震荡走弱，截至上周五收盘，生猪 期货主力 LH2603 合约报 11565 元/吨，涨 0.26%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 上周猪价先涨后跌，周均价重心上移，全国生猪出栏均价报 12.87 元/公斤，环比上涨 1.42%；仔猪周均价 343.33 元/头，环 比涨 11.09%，养殖户节前提前补栏控成本、集团场刚性补栏及部 分区域产能去化共同提振需求；二元母猪市场交投清淡，二元母 猪均价 1431 元/头，后备养殖户补栏积极性偏低；淘汰母猪价格 随猪价回暖上行，全国均价 9.77 元/公斤，环比涨 2.84%，养殖 端惜淘情绪浓厚；标肥价差环比走扩至-0.75 元/公斤，气温走低 ...