Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is ★ [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the iron ore 2605 contract rose 5.8%. In February 2026, China imported 9763.8 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month decrease of 1474.7 million tons (13.1% decline), with an average price of $101.3 per ton, a month - on - month increase of $0.2 per ton. The cumulative import of iron ore from January to February was 21002.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1906.4 million tons (10.0% increase). The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 78.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%; the steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%; the daily average pig iron output was 221.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17187.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 69.66 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 million tons, an increase of 6.82 million tons [4]. - Geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in global shipping costs, pushing up the import cost of iron ore. High international energy prices have raised inflation expectations. China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has strengthened the procurement control of BHP iron ore, increasing the expectation of a structural shortage of high - grade iron ore supply. Although the iron ore port inventory is at a high level, supply disturbances have increased. Driven by strong inflation expectations and import supply disturbances, iron ore prices may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, but the high port inventory restricts the upward price space. Overall, the iron ore price center is expected to rise [5][34]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PB powder (61.5%) at Tianjin Port is mentioned, but no specific price data is given [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content. 2. Important Market Information - In March 2026, the long - term contract negotiation between China and BHP has not been resolved. CMRG has expanded the import restrictions on BHP iron ore, including flagship products such as Mac fine powder, Newman powder, and Newman lump ore [14]. - The iron ore price rebound at the end of February was more of an emotional and technical repair, lacking support from supply - demand fundamentals. The upward price space is limited due to the oversupply situation [14]. - At the end of February, the broad money (M2) balance was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%; the narrow money (M1) balance was 115.93 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the currency in circulation (M0) balance was 15.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.1%. In the first two months, 1.05 trillion yuan of cash was net - injected [14]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of February 2026, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 9763.79 million tons, a decrease of 2201.21 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.34 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton from the previous month [18]. - As of February 2026, Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 5231.4 million tons, a decrease of 879.8 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipping volume was 2293.7 million tons, an increase of 404.6 million tons from the first half of the month [20]. 4. Demand - side Situation - **247 Steel Mills' Daily Average Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 221.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39 million tons [4][32]. - **247 Steel Mills' Profitability Rate**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 41.13%, a month - on - month increase of 3.03% [4][32]. - **Shanghai Terminal Rebar and Wire Rod Procurement Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content. 5. Fundamental Analysis - In February 2026, China imported 9763.8 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month decrease of 1474.7 million tons (13.1% decline), with an average price of $101.3 per ton, a month - on - month increase of $0.2 per ton. The cumulative import of iron ore from January to February was 21002.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1906.4 million tons (10.0% increase) [31]. - In February 2026, China exported 783.7 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 8.3 million tons (1.1% increase), with an average price of $729.1 per ton, a month - on - month increase of $45.5 per ton (6.7% increase). The cumulative steel export from January to February was 1559.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 138.2 million tons (8.1% decrease) [31]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17187.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 69.66 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 million tons, an increase of 6.82 million tons; the number of ships in port was 110, a decrease of 2. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17947.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.49 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 332.33 million tons, an increase of 5.35 million tons [31]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.24%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.65%; the steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a month - on - month increase of 3.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.12%; the daily average pig iron output was 221.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39 million tons [32]. - Last week, the iron ore price rose. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was $109.95 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $5.95 per ton (5.72% increase). The iron ore price fluctuated in the range of $104 - $110 per ton during the week; the average price of the Mysteel 62% index in March was $103.88 per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of $3.29 per dry ton [33]. 6. Market Outlook - Geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in global shipping costs, pushing up the import cost of iron ore. High international energy prices have raised inflation expectations. China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has strengthened the procurement control of BHP iron ore, increasing the expectation of a structural shortage of high - grade iron ore supply. Although the iron ore port inventory is at a high level, supply disturbances have increased. Driven by strong inflation expectations and import supply disturbances, iron ore prices may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, but the high port inventory restricts the upward price space. Overall, the iron ore price center is expected to rise [5][34]. 7. Operation Strategies - **Single - side**: Treat it as a mid - term, low - buying, and volatile - upward - biased operation. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Buy the bull spread strategy of iron ore options [5][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly fluctuating and strengthening trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of last week, the price of the main contract AL2604 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 24,450 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,860 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In February 2026, the national consumer price increased by 1.3% year - on - year. The average consumer price from January to February increased by 0.8% compared with the same period of the previous year. In February, the consumer price increased by 1.0% month - on - month [4][11][12] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of February 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 93.5 million tons, with a total capacity of 114.62 million tons and an operating rate of 81.57%. As of February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.916 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.402 million tons and an operating rate of 98.93% [15] - As of March 12, 2026, the total national aluminum rod inventory was 372,000 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared with the previous period. Regionally, the inventory in Foshan was 162,000 tons, in Wuxi was 135,000 tons, and in Nanchang was 11,000 tons [22] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of March 13, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 416,425 tons, an increase of 21,927 tons from the previous week. As of March 12, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 447,300 tons, a decrease of 2,825 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.77% [25] - As of March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.2612 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons from the previous day [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated and closed higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between the macro - sentiment and the marginal improvement of the fundamentals. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile due to the game between inventory reduction and high - inventory pressure, as well as profit recovery and high supply [36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 809,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons or 0.27%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 380,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 428,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 79.55%, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31% [12]. 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,931,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 0.47%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 1,013,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 918,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 15,500 tons or 0.80%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 196,500 tons or 11.32% [15]. 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 822,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 101.92%, a week - on - week increase of 8.60 percentage points [17]. 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese co - production soda ash was 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6740%. The profit increased significantly because the raw material cost decreased while the soda ash price was firm and the by - product ammonium chloride price rose [20]. - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The profit improved significantly due to the decrease in raw material cost and the increase in soda ash price [24]. 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 12, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons compared with March 5. The weekly output of national float glass from March 6 - 12, 2026 was 1,033,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47% [27]. 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75,849,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3,788,000 weight boxes or 4.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days from the previous period [30]. 3.3 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price first rose and then declined, closing higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between macro - sentiment and marginal improvement of fundamentals. The production of soda ash increased slightly, the operating rate remained high, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly, indicating that downstream demand had recovered. The raw material cost decreased, driving the industry profit to recover significantly. However, the absolute inventory level was still at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of loose supply had not been fundamentally reversed. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile [36]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pull - back. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of apple futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a significant overall decline. As of March 13, 2026, the AP2605 contract closed at 9,998 yuan/ton, down 318 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 3.08%. The market logic is gradually shifting from delivery logic to the spot fundamentals [5][11]. - The apple market maintained a differentiated pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east last week. Good - quality goods were in better trading than medium - and low - grade ones. The short - term pattern of low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods is difficult to change, which will push up the delivery cost and support the futures price. With the approaching of Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory clearance will be accelerated. Citrus suppression will weaken, and it is expected that the short - term apple futures price will maintain a volatile and strong operation [7][58]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of apple futures AP2605 showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a significant overall decline. As of March 13, 2026, the apple 2605 contract closed at 9,998 yuan/ton, down 318 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 3.08% [5][11]. (2) Spot Price - **Shandong**: The apple price in Shandong remained stable last week. The number of inquiring and purchasing merchants in cold storages was small, and the overall sales speed was slow. The export processing demand increased slightly. The prices in Penglai and Qixia areas were reported in detail [16]. - **Shaanxi**: The trading of high - quality goods in Shaanxi improved last week. Merchants replenished their stocks as needed, especially for high - quality goods. The price of high - quality goods rose slightly, while the general and low - grade goods had slow transactions [21]. 2. Production Area Situation - **Shandong**: The trading speed of inventory apples in Qixia and Yiyuan was slow. The prices were affected by quality, with some being chaotic and some showing a weak - stable trend [23]. - **Shaanxi**: In Luochuan, the trading of high - quality inventory Fuji was good, with stable and firm prices, while the general and poor - quality goods had less trading. In Weinan, the sales volume was average, and the prices were chaotic [24]. - **Shanxi**: In Yuncheng Linyi, the trading of inventory Fuji was okay. The remaining amount of film - bag apples was small, and the market mainly purchased paper - plus - film apples, with a stable price [24]. - **Gansu**: In Jingning, the remaining high - quality inventory Fuji was scarce, and the overall trading entered the later stage, with a stable and firm market situation [24]. 3. Inventory Situation - As of March 11, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of the country was 4.9972 million tons, a decrease of 278,200 tons from the previous week. The inventory reduction rate accelerated slightly [34]. - **Shandong**: The storage capacity ratio was 40.05%, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week. The export processing demand increased slightly, but the overall purchasing by merchants was dull [34]. - **Shaanxi**: The storage capacity ratio was 39.21%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week. The trading of high - quality goods improved, and the price rose slightly [34]. - **Other Areas**: The storage capacity ratios of Gansu, Shanxi, and Liaoning decreased to different degrees, with different trading situations [34][35]. 4. Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Guangdong wholesale market increased slightly last week. The actual transactions were priced according to quality. The market sales were slow, and the purchase intention of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high [38]. 5. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.35 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [44]. 6. Key Fruit Market - As of the 11th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six key fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 8 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan/kg. Most of the six types of fruits showed an upward trend, except for watermelons [48]. 7. Export Situation - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. It is expected that the export volume in the first quarter of 2026 will increase quarter - on - quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [53]. 8. Production Statistics - In 2025, the domestic apple production was 3.43142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% from the previous year. Different regions had different production changes [55][57]. 9. Market Outlook - The short - term apple futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation. The focus next week is on Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, market trading atmosphere, merchant replenishment, substitute fruit trading, and weather conditions in the main producing areas [58][59]. 10. Operation Strategy - The main contract of apple futures is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider buying far - month put options [60][61].

研究报告 地缘扰动冲高回落，供需紧平衡托底价格 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 上周玉米期货盘面呈现先扬后抑、震荡运行，周初受地缘政 治冲突扰动，玉米主力期价一度冲高至 2443 元/吨的阶段高点， 而后随着原油价格阶段性回落和市场获利回吐，价格出现明显回 调，最低触及 2372 元/吨，随后几个交易日价格在 2380-2400 元/ 吨区间内窄幅震荡，截至上周五收盘，玉米期货主力合约 C2603 收报 2386 元/吨，跌 0.5%。上周 CBOT 玉米震荡偏强运行，截至 上周收盘，5 月玉米基准期约报 467 美分/蒲式耳，周涨幅 1.36%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 3 月 16 日星期一 上周全国玉米周均价为 2397 元/吨，环比上涨 28 元/吨，受 宏观环境及期货盘面走强带动，国内玉米现货价格提振明显；东 北产区现货价格同步跟涨，截至上周五，哈尔滨二等玉米价格为 22 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the hog market entered the traditional off - season of consumption. The terminal frozen product inventory before the festival was not digested, and the slaughter enterprises had low procurement willingness. The pork consumption in the second quarter was difficult to improve substantially. The supply side was under pressure as the breeding subjects' unsold and back - pressured pigs were released in March, and the market continued the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The pig price fell below the full cost line, and the industry's deep losses forced the elimination of inefficient production capacity. Although the 10,000 - ton reserve meat purchase and storage had been launched, it was difficult to reverse the supply - demand situation, only slowing down the decline of pig prices. In general, the downside space of the futures market was limited, and it was in the stage of shock bottom - grinding in the short term. After the second quarter, as the supply pressure gradually eased, the pig price might gradually get out of the bottom range [7][80] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - After the Spring Festival, the hog futures market continued to decline in shock. As of March 6, the main LH2605 contract closed at 11,160 yuan/ton, hitting a record low of 11,080 yuan/ton during the day, approaching the 11,000 - yuan integer mark. Since 2026, the cumulative decline of LH2605 was 8.3% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - Since 2026, the hog spot price has continued to decline, and the market has entered the "10 - yuan era". As of March 6, the national average hog slaughter price dropped to 10.29 yuan/kg, with a cumulative decline of 2.04 yuan/kg since the beginning of the year, a decline of 16.55%. The pig price has fallen below the industry's break - even line, and the industry has fallen into a deep loss. The price of 7kg piglets has returned to a weak downward channel, with the average price last week at 339.29 yuan/head, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72%. The average market price of 50kg binary sows was stable at 1,430 yuan/head, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The average price of culled sows last week was 7.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg compared with before the festival, a decline of 9.83% [6][18][21] 3.1.3. Spread Situation - After the Spring Festival, the spot price dropped rapidly, while the futures market had the expectation of production capacity elimination in the second quarter, driving the basis to fall from a high level and turn negative. As of March 6, the basis was - 610 yuan/ton, and the futures were at a premium to the spot. The standard - fat spread in the hog market continued to expand in 2026. After the festival, it quickly narrowed. As of March 6, the national average price of fat hogs was 11.05 yuan/kg, and the standard - fat spread was - 0.75 yuan/kg, 0.36 yuan/kg narrower than before the festival [33][36] 3.2. Industry Dynamic News - On March 3, Huachuwang announced a 10,000 - ton central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on March 4. Relevant departments held a meeting to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity, and many pig enterprises participated, focusing on assisting farmers, production capacity regulation, and the accuracy of early - warning information. In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs promoted production capacity regulation by reducing the number of breeding sows. The listing pig enterprises' slaughter volume in 2025 showed differentiation, with Zhengbang Technology increasing by about 105%, Juxing Agriculture and others increasing by more than 60%, and Wens Foodstuff Group and Shennong Group increasing by more than 30% [37] 3.3. Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1. Supply Side - As of the end of January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.58 million, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.08% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, still above the red line of 39 million and at the upper edge of the reasonable range. As of the end of 2025, the national hog inventory was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of January 2026, it was 429.02 million, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. In February 2026, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49kg piglets was 33.09%, 50 - 89kg hogs was 29.36%, 90 - 140kg hogs was 36.35%, and hogs over 140kg was 1.21%, with month - on - month changes of 0.69%, 1.27%, - 0.74%, and - 21.11% respectively. The planned hog slaughter volume in March increased significantly compared with the actual volume in February, with a total planned increase of 17.63% [41][46][50] 3.3.2. Demand Side - The slaughtering rate of enterprises increased significantly before the Spring Festival due to stocking demand, but dropped rapidly after the festival. Last week, the slaughtering rate was 27.27%, a year - on - year increase of 2.02% and a decrease of 18.7% from the pre - festival high. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises last week was 84.6%, a month - on - month decline of 0.02%, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.52%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The terminal pork demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises increased the frozen - product storage passively [59][64] 3.3.3. Cost - Profit Situation - Before the festival, the hog breeding profit was under pressure near the break - even line. After the festival, it fell sharply, and the industry entered a deep loss. As of March 5, the average loss per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode was 203.64 yuan, and the average profit per head in the mode of purchasing piglets was 127.21 yuan. The cost of secondary fattening increased with the increase of slaughter weight. The current willingness of the industry to actively back - pressure hogs might have dropped to a low level. The hog - grain ratio was 4.45, a month - on - month decrease of 7.12%, and it had fallen below the first - level early - warning threshold of 5:1, accelerating the elimination of inefficient production capacity [71][75][79] 3.4. Market Outlook - The hog market is in the traditional off - season of consumption after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The pig price has fallen below the full cost line, and the industry's deep losses force the elimination of inefficient production capacity. The 10,000 - ton reserve meat purchase and storage can only slow down the decline of pig prices. In the short term, the futures market is in the shock bottom - grinding stage, and the pig price may gradually get out of the bottom range after the second quarter [7][80] 3.5. Operation Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, if there were short - near and long - far arbitrage positions before, they can be gradually closed to take profits. There is no option strategy [8][81][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [3][32] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2604 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 100,030 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 104,540 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In February, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the critical point [10][11] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of March 5, 2026, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 56.1 US dollars per thousand tons, and the refining fee was - 5.7 cents per pound. As of March 6, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaomao was 101,120 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 89,250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 2,945 yuan/ton, which was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15][17] 4. Inventory Situation - As of March 6, 2026, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 425,145 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous week. As of March 4, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 261,525 tons, an increase of 3,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 5.61%. As of March 5, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 97,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 119,300 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 5,700 tons from the previous week [21] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - In February, the manufacturing PMI decreased, the new order index declined, the copper smelter's processing fee continued to drop rapidly and was at an extremely low level, the refined - scrap copper price difference decreased rapidly but remained at a high level, the investment in power grid infrastructure changed from increase to decrease, the copper product output decreased slightly year - on - year, the Shanghai copper inventory increased significantly and was at a relatively high level in recent years, and the LME copper inventory increased rapidly and was at the highest level in recent years [31] 6. Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [3][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market showed a volatile trend last week, with a sharp decline at the beginning due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and a gradual recovery in sentiment later with the opening of the Two - Sessions policy window. The small - and medium - cap index futures declined significantly, while the large - cap blue - chip futures were relatively resistant to decline. In the short term, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong shock with structural opportunities, but the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, and market volatility may remain high [29][31][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: Last week, the domestic stock index futures market closed down. The IF contract of CSI 300 futures closed at 4,646.0 with a weekly decline of 1.44%; the IH contract of SSE 50 futures closed at 2,990.0 with a weekly decline of 1.82%; the IC contract of CSI 500 futures closed at 8,322.6 with a weekly decline of 3.73%; the IM contract of CSI 1000 futures closed at 8,211.8 with a weekly decline of 3.75% [6] - **Bond Futures**: Last week, the treasury bond futures closed up. The 30 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.59% and closed at 112.780 yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.13% and closed at 108.535 yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.12% and closed at 106.110 yuan; the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.05% and closed at 102.496 yuan [7] - **A - share Market**: On March 6, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to close at 4124.19 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to close at 14172.63 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.38% to close at 3229.30 points. Most industry sectors closed up, with agricultural chemicals, chemical raw materials, and other sectors leading the gains, while ground military equipment, industrial metals, and other sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 193.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy News**: The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, announced two new measures: deepening the reform of the ChiNext Board and optimizing the refinancing mechanism. The overall plan for the ChiNext reform is basically in shape. On March 6, the CSRC issued the "Several Provisions on the Supervision of Short - term Trading", which will come into effect on April 7, 2026 [9] - **US Economic Data**: The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, with an expected increase of 59,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and other data also showed signs of economic weakness [9] - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 161.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1.525 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.3634 trillion yuan. This week, 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 150 billion yuan of one - month treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature on Tuesday [9][10] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - **Index Valuations**: As of March 6, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 14.19 times, with a percentile of 86.27%, and the PB was 1.5 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.56 times, with a percentile of 81.57%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 37.55 times, with a percentile of 88.04%, and the PB was 2.60 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 49.98 times, with a percentile of 82.94%, and the PB was 2.69 times [13] - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [25] 3.4 China - Buffett Indicator - On March 6, 2026, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 92.10%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 91.96%, and in the past 10 - year data, it was 96.00% [29] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Influencing Factors**: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict in the first half of the week led to a global risk - aversion sentiment, which put pressure on the A - share market. The opening of the Two - Sessions policy window in the second half of the week boosted market confidence. The US non - farm payroll data also disturbed market sentiment [32] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: As the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on the re - inflation expectation is gradually digested, the focus of the market has shifted to the Two - Sessions. The market is expected to be in a relatively strong shock with structural opportunities in the short term. For trading, one can consider buying on dips in the shock, pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between IM, IC, and IH, and use covered call writing to increase returns or buy out - of - the - money put options to hedge risks [33][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of apple futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, with a significant overall increase and reaching a new high in this round of rise [7][14][64] - The new - season apple production and quality have declined, and the low inventory strongly supports the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. The apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern, and the apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [8][64] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - The main contract of apple futures AP2605 rose first and then fell last week, with an overall significant increase. As of the afternoon close on March 6, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 10,316 yuan/ton, up 556 yuan/ton or 5.7% for the week [6][14] 3.1.2 Spot Price - **Shandong**: In Shandong, the number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair. In Qixia, replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods, with limited transactions. In Penglai, third - grade goods were mainly traded, and some merchants sought high - quality goods. The price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Penglai was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade fruit was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji slice - red fruit farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 common - grade goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin [20] - **Shaanxi**: In Shaanxi, the number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods. In Yan'an, high - quality goods were slightly firmer, but overall transactions were average. In Baishui and Xianyang, e - commerce purchases increased, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.4 yuan/jin, over 70 common - grade goods was around 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior goods was around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [25] 3.2 Production Area Situation - On March 7, 2026, the overall apple market in production areas was light. Western buyers continued to pick high - quality goods, and as high - quality goods decreased, some turned to Shandong to pick high - quality first - and second - grade goods. The demand for high - quality goods remained strong, while the trading of general and poor - quality goods was relatively cold, and the price of poor - quality goods declined in some areas [27] - **Shandong**: In Qixia, the inventory apple trading was limited. Some speculators bought first - and second - grade high - quality goods, and the transaction was based on quality. The price of 80 first - and second - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 3.30 - 4.30 yuan/jin, 80 above merchants' third - grade fruit was 1.80 - 2.40 yuan/jin, and 75 first - and second - grade inventory Fuji was about 2.80 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the inventory Fuji trading was light, with limited merchant enthusiasm and slow sales. The price of high - quality common - grade 75 above inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 2.50 - 2.60 yuan/jin, and general common - grade 75 above was 1.80 - 2.30 yuan/jin [27] - **Shaanxi**: In Luochuan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small. Downstream traders restocked as needed, with good demand for high - quality goods and little trading of poor - quality goods. The price of over 70 semi - commercial inventory paper - bag late Fuji was 4.10 - 4.30 yuan/jin, and over 70 common - grade was 3.40 - 3.60 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the inventory Fuji trading volume was small, with uneven quality and chaotic prices, and slow sales. The price of 75 starting high - quality common - grade inventory paper - bag Fuji was 2.20 - 2.80 yuan/jin [28] - **Shanxi**: In Yuncheng Linyi, the inventory Fuji trading was average. The remaining volume of film - bag apples was small, and the sales of paper - plus - film apples were stable. Merchants picked high - quality goods, and the price was stable. The price of over 75 inventory film - bag late Fuji was 1.40 - 1.50 yuan/jin, and over 80 paper - plus - film late Fuji was 2.00 - 2.60 yuan/jin [28] - **Gansu**: In Jingning, the trading did not change significantly. Inventory holders mainly shipped their own inventory, and a few picked high - quality fruit farmers' goods. The price of high - quality goods was stable, and that of general and poor - quality goods was stable but weak. The price of 75 starting commercial fruit of inventory paper - bag late Fuji in Renda Town was 5.00 - 5.50 yuan/jin, and common - grade was 4.00 - 4.60 yuan/jin [28] 3.3 Inventory Situation - The peak cold - storage storage volume of late Fuji this season was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of March 4, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas across the country was 5.2753 million tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed was faster than the previous week [39] - **Shandong**: The storage capacity ratio in Shandong last week was 41.56%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week. The number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was fair, and replenishment was mainly for general common - grade goods [39] - **Shaanxi**: The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi last week was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week. The number of merchants increased, and some moved from Gansu to Shaanxi to find high - quality goods [39] - **Other Areas**: The storage capacity ratio in Gansu last week was 29.58%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week. Merchants in Gansu were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods rose. The storage capacity ratio in Shanxi was 27.86%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week. Merchants in Shanxi gradually shifted from seeking film - bag apples to paper - plus - film apples. The storage capacity ratio in Liaoning was 46.90%, a decrease of 1.94% from the previous week. Merchants mainly replenished general common - grade fruit farmers' goods [39][40] 3.4 Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Chalong market last week slightly increased compared with the first week after the Spring Festival. Actual transactions were based on quality. Currently, the number of arriving trucks in the market is small, the backlog in the transfer warehouse is not serious, the purchasing willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers is low, the market is relatively cold, and the selling prices are chaotic [45] 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [50] 3.6 Key Fruit Market - As of the 10th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the 9th week. Among the six kinds of fruits, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, bananas, and Ya pears increased by 0.40 yuan/kg, 0.06 yuan/kg, and 0.01 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale prices of watermelons and pineapples decreased by 0.47 yuan/kg and 0.45 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 9th week. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples remained the same as the previous week [54] 3.7 Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. Affected by the Christmas and New Year's Day festivals, the export volume increased significantly in December. Seasonally, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak seasons for apple exports. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [59] 3.8 Production Statistics - According to Steel Union data, the domestic apple production in 2025 was 3.43142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% from the previous year. The production in Shaanxi, Shandong, and Gansu decreased by 6.97%, 16.54%, and 4.45% respectively, while that in Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning increased by 9%, 11%, and 3% respectively [61][63] 3.9 Market Outlook - The main contract of apple futures rose first and then fell last week, with a significant overall increase. The shipping situation in apple production areas last week varied, with a stronger shipping atmosphere in the west and a weaker one in the east. Western merchants were more enthusiastic about high - quality goods, and the price of high - quality goods in Gansu rose. The shipping of general and lower - quality common - grade fruit farmers' goods was average, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm for this kind of goods was low. The overall shipping in Shandong was average, and transactions were mainly for low - price goods. In the sales areas, the overall post - festival sales were stable, but the arrival volume decreased, and the shipping slowed down. Overall, the decline in new - season apple production and quality and the low inventory strongly support the price. There is a supply gap for high - quality apples, and with the improvement of demand, the apple price is stable and slightly firm. As cold - storage apples enter the middle and late stages of sales, the apple market is expected to continue the polarization pattern. The apple futures price may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. Next week, attention should be paid to the market trading atmosphere, merchants' replenishment situation, the trading situation of substitute fruits, and the weather in the main production areas [64] 3.10 Operation Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The main contract of apple futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [9][65] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract for positive arbitrage; for options, consider buying out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [10][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures price continued to rebound and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis, but the market showed a typical "futures-spot divergence" feature. The "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" core contradiction was not alleviated, and the market lacked a solid foundation for continuous upward movement [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 807,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,000 tons or 2.03%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.77%, a week-on-week increase of 1.73% [7][10]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9472 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 17,700 tons or 0.92%, and a year-on-year increase of 187,300 tons or 10.64% [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 5, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 738,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 53.26%; the overall shipment rate was 93.32%, a week-on-week increase of 32.20 percentage points [17]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the theoretical profit (double tons) of China's combined soda process was -2.50 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 66.67%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was -82.65 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 5, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 148,500 tons, unchanged from February 26. The weekly output from February 27 to March 5 was 1.0397 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.24% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million weight boxes, a week-on-week increase of 3.629 million weight boxes or 4.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days were 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days from the previous period [31]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The supply - side pressure of soda ash further intensified. The demand side had a certain recovery, but the overall shipment rate was still less than 94%. The manufacturer's total inventory continued to accumulate, reaching over 1.94 million tons. The combined soda process profit narrowed, and the ammonia - soda process profit was still in a loss state [38]. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [39].