行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 0.13%。 研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 基本面：上周 Mysteel 统计全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 15300.81 万吨，环比增加 90.69 万吨；日均疏港量 318.45 万吨，环比下降 12.13 万 吨。上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 80.16%，环比减少 0.93%，同比减少 1.31 个%；日均铁水产量 232.3 万吨，环比减少 2.38 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 后市展望：上周铁矿石价格在 106 美元/吨附近上下波动，目前 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [4][34] Summary by Related Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend, ranging from around 17,010 yuan/ton to about 17,380 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the business climate. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were all below the critical point [12] 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,255 yuan/ton, 17,300 yuan/ton, and 17,270 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the premium or discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 400 yuan/metal ton, and 320 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 645,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Seasonally, the current output was at an average level compared to the past five years [22] 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 243,550 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 48.06% [28] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market demand. Lead processing fees continued to decline slowly and remained at a low level. In October, lead production was at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [33] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [34]

研究报告 现货回暖乏力 库存约束下盘面上行受限 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 上周全国产销区鸡蛋价格环比上涨，主产区均价 3.06 元/斤， 环比涨 0.15 元/斤；主销区均价 3.07 元/斤，环比涨 0.13 元/斤； 鸡苗均价 2.75 元/羽，环比持平，养殖端对后市信心不足、观望 情绪浓厚，主产区发货量环比减 0.69%，老母鸡出栏量降 0.7%， 平均出栏日龄 489 天；上周北京市场到货环比减 4 车，广东市场 环比增 1 车；库存方面，生产及流通环节库存分别增 0.02 天、0.08 天，当前库存压力仍存。养殖成本 3.5 元/斤，单斤养殖盈利亏损 收窄至-0.45 元/斤。 【后市展望】 摘要： 受 8 月补栏低迷影响，在产蛋鸡存栏逐渐收缩，但当前仍处 相对高位，双 12 电商促销、元旦节日托底短期需求，但受消费端 整体偏弱制约， ...

研究报告 纯碱周报 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com "弱预期"与"强现实" 纯碱价格再次探底 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1131-1191 元/吨之间运行， 价格窄幅震荡。 截至 2025 年 12 月 4 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 下跌 40 元/吨，周度跌 3.40%，报收 1137 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率回升，截止 2025 年 12 月 4 日， 本周国内纯碱产量 70.39 吨，环比增加 0.58 万吨，涨幅 0.82%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 80.74%，前周 80.08%，环比增加 0.66%。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 库存情况延续回落，截止 2025 年 12 月 4 日，国内纯碱厂家 总库存 153.86 万吨，较周一下降 3.13 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. The market sentiment is boosted by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, but there is an expectation of looser supply, weakening cost support, good but weakening terminal consumption, and continuous seasonal inventory accumulation in the domestic market [8][9][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures changed from RU2601 to RU2605, with prices ranging from 14,910 to 15,475 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a significant overall decline. As of the close on December 5, 2025, the main contract closed at 15,065 yuan/ton, down 380 points or 2.46% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,050 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [20]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,060 US dollars/ton as of December 5, 2025, down 60 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded compared to the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [26]. - The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both significantly declined compared to the previous week as of December 5, 2025 [29]. Important Market Information - US economic data: In November, the "small non - farm" employment in the US reached the largest decline in two and a half years, the initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased, the ISM manufacturing PMI declined, the ISM services PMI rose, and there were significant changes in employment and lay - off data [30][31]. - Global economic forecasts: The OECD expects global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, while the UNCTAD expects the global economic growth to slow down to 2.6% in 2025 [31][32]. - Chinese economic data: In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly, non - manufacturing PMI declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined. There were also changes in the real estate market, consumer goods, and the automotive market [33][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 1.071 million tons, a 3.45% increase from the previous month. The output of Thailand and China decreased slightly, while that of Malaysia, India, and Vietnam increased slightly [42]. - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 782,000 tons, a 12.5% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative output was 7.387 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [45][48]. - As of October 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,300 tons, a 12.26% month - on - month decrease [51]. Demand - side Situation - As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.92%, up 1.73% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.5%, up 0.17% from the previous week [54]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's automobile monthly output was 3.3587 million vehicles, a 12.09% year - on - year and 2.53% month - on - month increase; monthly sales were 3.3221 million vehicles, an 8.82% year - on - year and 2.97% month - on - month increase [58][61]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's heavy - truck monthly sales were 106,199 vehicles, a 60.02% year - on - year and 0.58% month - on - month increase [66]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 97.951 million pieces, a 2.5% year - on - year decrease; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, an 8.11% month - on - month decrease [69][74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE was 45,530 tons, an increase of 4,130 tons from the previous week. - As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5%, and that of light - colored rubber increased by 1.3%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 481,600 tons, a 2.71% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 0.69%, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.07% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are still in the peak supply season. With the weakening of weather disturbances in Vietnam and Thailand, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase. The domestic production areas will enter the non - production season, and the supply elasticity will weaken, with relatively firm raw material rubber prices and cost support for rubber. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased by 17.2% year - on - year [83]. - Demand: The operating rates of tire enterprises increased slightly, but the overall downstream demand increment was limited, and enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, which could not strongly support the upstream rubber prices. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales in November increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires in the first 10 months increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather turns cold, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [84][85]. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory increased slightly last week, and the social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber continued to rise, with an increasing inventory accumulation rate [84][85]. Viewpoints and Operation Strategies - This week's view: The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. - Operation strategies: For single - side trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse spread opportunity; for options, temporarily wait and see [10][88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and the rebound space of methanol futures may be limited. It is recommended to consider reducing positions to take profits or temporarily leaving the market for methanol long positions [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol port inventory decreased significantly, and the methanol futures and spot prices strengthened simultaneously. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price reached 2,163 yuan/ton, a 6.24% increase from the previous week. The port methanol market price stopped falling and trended stronger, and the inland methanol price also increased [6][14] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Production - Last week (20251121 - 1127), China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [15] 3.2.2 Downstream Demand - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the weekly average start - up of the olefin industry increased slightly; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate increased by 38.49% from the previous week; the load of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased; and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate increased [19][20] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 373,700 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous period, and the order backlog was 230,700 tons, a 6.34% decrease from the previous period. The methanol port sample inventory was 1,363,500 tons, a 7.83% decrease from the previous period [21][26] 3.2.4 Profit - Last week (20251121 - 1127), the theoretical profit of domestic methanol sample enterprises was still weak overall. The profits from coal - based and natural - gas - based production were still weak, while that from coke - oven - gas - based production improved slightly [29] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook 3.3.1 Supply - This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may exceed that of the overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.27%, an increase from last week [34] 3.3.2 Downstream Demand - The weekly average start - up of olefins is expected to continue to increase; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to decline; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase slightly; and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise [37][38] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 374,900 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend. The port inventory is expected to increase, but the specific inventory trend still depends on the unloading and picking - up speeds [38] - Overall, the methanol supply and demand remain loose, and there is no substantial positive driving force in the fundamentals. The subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the boost from fundamentals to polyolefins may still be limited. Future focus should be on the macro - level. If macro - level policies are positive, polyolefins have the opportunity to rebound [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - level Domestic - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of the previous month. New RMB loans in October were 220 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 280 billion. In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; it changed from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [8]. - From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%, and the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43 [10][12]. International - Affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. CPI for October 2025 was not released on time. The CPI in September rose 0.1% from the previous month to 3%. The eurozone's CPI in October 2025 decreased 0.1% from the previous month to 2.1%. Both U.S. and European inflation have dropped to relatively low levels, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [13]. - After the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, it may further cut interest rates in December due to concerns about weak employment. The eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [15]. - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the U.S. economy, but the U.S. economy remains resilient. In October, the U.S. manufacturing PMI decreased 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 48.7%, while the service industry PMI rose 2.4 percentage points to 52.4% [16]. Fundamentals PE - In November 2025, the production and capacity utilization rate of polyethylene increased. The capacity utilization rate was 83.31%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, and the output was 2.8866 million tons, up 0.1 percentage points. The increase in output was mainly due to a 13.35% decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of a new device at Guangxi Petrochemical [19]. - In November 2025, the overall downstream operating rate of polyethylene was 44.59%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous month. The fundamentals of PE packaging film declined month - on - month, with the operating rate dropping 1.56% month - on - month. The overall operating rate of agricultural film increased 7.9% month - on - month [20]. - In November 2025, the social inventory of polyethylene decreased. At the end of the month, the social sample warehouse inventory was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons from the previous month. Low prices drove sales and increased the frequency of terminal purchases [24]. PP - In November 2025, the total production of polypropylene in China was 3.4694 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%. Although a new 400,000 - ton/year device at Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II was put into operation, the total production decreased slightly due to one less day in the month [27]. - In November 2025, the estimated consumption of polypropylene in China was 3.4894 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The average downstream operating rate was 53.30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%, mainly driven by e - commerce promotions and new energy vehicle promotion policies [30]. - At the end of November 2025, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 546,300 tons, a decrease of 8.2% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 6.16% from the end of the previous month [33]. Market Outlook PE - In December 2025, the supply pressure of polyethylene is expected to remain. The demand for agricultural film will enter the off - season, the operating rate of the packaging industry may continue to decline, and the infrastructure demand in the pipe industry will decrease. The cost support will further weaken, and the market price may hover at a low level [6][35]. PP - In December 2025, although imports will continue to decrease, the supply pressure of polypropylene will increase as the maintenance plan of domestic polypropylene devices is basically over. The increase in festival - related orders is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify [6][37].

研究报告 鸡蛋期现分化下，12 月能否迎来回暖？ 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周鸡蛋期货盘面震荡上涨，周内主力合约创出阶段性新高， 截至上周五收盘，鸡蛋主力 JD2601 合约报收 3293 元/500 千克， 涨 0.73%；鸡蛋 JD2605 合约报收 3608 元/500 千克，涨 1.46%。 【基本面分析】 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 上周全国产销区鸡蛋价格环比微跌，主产区均价报 2.91 元/ 斤，环比跌 0.34%；主销区均价报 2.94 元/斤，环比跌 1.34%。鸡 苗价格持平于 2.75 元/羽，同比大幅下滑，显示养殖端补栏信心 不足。供给方面，产区发货量与老母鸡出栏量分别增加 1.89%和 2.81%，供应压力仍存。需求端稍有好转，销区销量环比增 4.89%， 但到货情况分化 ...

| 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 1 | 年 | 日星期一 | 12 | 月 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.89%。 研究报告 铁矿周报 基本面：上周，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.09%，环比减 少 1.10%，同比减少 0.53%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 87.98%，环比减少 0.60%， 同比增加 0.18%；钢厂盈利率 35.06%，环比减少 2.60%，同比减少 16.89%； 日均铁水产量 234.68 万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 15,885 yuan/ton to about 17,220 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries in October, 29 had year - on - year growth in added value, with different growth rates for each industry [11] 3. Spot Analysis - As of November 28, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,015 yuan/ton, 17,120 yuan/ton, and 17,020 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - In September 2025, the global lead mine output was 392.8 thousand tons, an increase of 9.3 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years. As of November 21, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 280 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 64.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21] 5. Inventory Situation - As of November 28, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,799 tons, a decrease of 1,122 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 263,175 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.55% [30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Global lead mine output has increased, while lead processing fees are still slowly declining. Lead production in October remained at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline, and the inventory level was at a moderate level in recent years. LME lead inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory level remained at a high level in recent years [4][36] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37]