研究报告 橡胶周报 市场回归基本面，胶价或震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 11 日星期一 展望后市，在前期的宏观影响减弱之后，橡胶走势逐步回 归基本面。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期东南亚主产区天气 好转，国内产区也降雨减少，新胶持续放量，供给端存在一定 压力。7 月进口同比增加。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均有 微幅下降，半钢轮胎成品库存远高于去年同期，处于历史高位； 全轮胎企业成品去库速度放缓，同比略有提升。终端车市方面， 6 月汽车产销量有所回暖，7 月重卡销量环比小幅下降，同比大 幅上涨；1-7 月，重卡市场累计销量同比增长约 11%。上半年中 国轮胎出口同比小幅增长。库存方面，上周上期所库存持续下 降；上周中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存均小幅回落。 综上所述，近期宏观影响减弱，橡胶走势逐步回归基本面。 虽然近期终端需求有所转好，但是国内外主产地天气都有好转， 原料价格下跌 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面改善有限，甲醇或偏弱震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周国内宏观面预期改善的影响逐步淡化，而甲醇基本面改 善有限，甲醇期货回落调整，至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2429 元/吨，较前一周下跌 4.41%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量上升，甲醇下 游需求总体平稳。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存下降， 企业待发订单量下降。港口甲醇库存继续上升，且升幅较大。利 润方面，上周甲醇企业利润多数回暖。综合来看，上周甲醇供需 未有明显好转，甲醇现货市场走势不一，内地震荡走高，港口盘 整为主。 【后市展望】 （数据来源：博弈大师、隆众资讯） 上周国内宏观面预期改善的影响逐步淡化，而甲醇基本面改善有限，甲醇 期货回落调整，至周五下 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]

投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 研究报告 纯碱周报 "反内卷"情绪持续降温，市场回归基本面 华龙期货投资咨询部 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存压力仍存，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 179.58 万吨，较上周一增加 1.22 万吨，涨幅 0.68%。 【综合分析】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1228-1432 元/吨之间运行， 价格回落。 截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 184 元/吨，周度跌涨-12.78%，报收 1256 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双降，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日， 上周国内纯碱产量 69.98 万吨，环比减少 2.40 万吨，跌幅 3.32%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 80 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market and domestic stock index futures market both experienced a collective correction. This week, stock index futures are expected to show a volatile and relatively stable trend, with upward movement limited by weak economic data and downward movement supported by policies [2][5][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - On August 1st, the three major A-share indexes slightly declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 15984 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 3377 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Last week, the main contracts of domestic stock index futures all declined. The weekly decline rates of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures were -2.10%, -1.52%, -1.80%, and -0.95% respectively [5]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [6]. Fundamental Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission has established a regular communication and exchange mechanism with private enterprises, held 17 symposiums, and communicated face-to-face with nearly 80 private enterprises. It has also conducted more than 500 discussions with private enterprises through various means, and provincial, municipal, and county development and reform departments have held more than 20,000 private enterprise symposiums. The comprehensive service platform for private economic development has received more than 2400 problem requests since its launch more than half a year ago [7]. - The People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2025, stating that since 2025, it has strengthened situation analysis, prepared policy reserves, introduced a package of monetary policy measures, and effectively promoted various tasks [8]. - The Ministry of Finance conducted the first reissuance of the 2025 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase III). The reissued bonds are 50-year fixed-rate interest-bearing bonds with a competitive tender face value of 35 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.10%. As of August 1st, 796 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been issued, reaching 61% of the annual issuance plan [8]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan. This week, 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [9]. Valuation Analysis - As of August 1st, the PE, PB, and their respective percentile points of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are provided [12]. - The concept and calculation formulas of the stock-bond yield spread are introduced [22]. China - Buffett Indicator - On July 31st, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 80.03%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 75.10%, and in the past 10 years' data, it was 73.51% [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern this week. The macro environment presents a game between "policy support" and "weak economic recovery." The extension of the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension period between China and the US has alleviated market concerns, but structural contradictions remain [25]. - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, indicating continued pressure on corporate profits. However, policy support continues, and consumer and manufacturing sectors may receive support [25]. - In terms of market style, funds may continue to rotate between defensive sectors and policy-driven sectors. The convergence of stock index futures discounts reflects a weakening of short-selling pressure, but the high proportion of net short positions in the IM contract means that the volatility risk of small and medium-cap stocks needs to be watched out for [25].

研究报告 橡胶周报 供给上量情绪降温，商品市场溢价修复 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14275-15635 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡下行，总体大幅下跌。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡下行，总体大幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 展望后市，从消息面和宏观面来看，7 月 29 日凌晨 1 时泰 国和柬埔寨停火，利空胶价；上周美联储议息会议决定维持利 率不变，对商品形成压制；国内宏观情绪显著降温，商品市场 溢价有所修复。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期国外主产区天 气好转，原料价格下跌；国内产区仍然降雨较多，原料价格维 持坚挺。6 月进口同比增加。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均 有下降，轮胎库存仍然维持高位。终端车市方面，6 月汽车产销 量和重卡销量均有所回暖。上半年中国轮胎出 ...

研究报告 螺纹周报 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 3.41%，周五 夜盘下跌 1.18%。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 基本面：从中物联钢铁物流专业委员会调查、发布 的钢铁行业 PMI 来看，2025 年 7 月份为 50.5%，环比上 升 4.6%，结束连续 2 个月环比下降态势，重回扩张区 间。上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比持平， 同比增加 2.18%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.24%，环比减 少 0.57%，同比增加 1.37%。上周螺纹钢产量、表需由 增转降，厂库连续第三周减少，社库连续第三周增加。 后市展望：近期市场情绪回落，钢价有所回调，但 预计回调空间有限，以震荡整理为主。 交易策略：建议等待盘面回调后逢低震荡偏多对 待，关注下方 3100 元/吨附近支撑 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the polyolefin industry. 2. Core View In August, with the improvement of both the macro - economic and fundamental aspects, polyolefins are expected to perform strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Section Macro - economic Analysis - **China**: In late June 2025, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and fell 0.1% month - on - month, while the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and sales volume all declined. With the implementation of relevant policies, the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive [6][8][11]. - **International**: In June 2025, the US CPI rose 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, and the Eurozone's CPI in April rose 0.1 percentage points to 2%. The US economy remains resilient, and its major trading partners have reached trade agreements with it. After the stabilization of US tariffs, the inflation expectation will improve, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, bringing substantial benefits to the international macro - economy [13][17][20]. Fundamental Analysis - **PE**: In July, domestic PE production increased, with the output reaching 272.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The downstream demand decreased, with the average starting rate of downstream industries at 38.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The social sample warehouse inventory rose to 56.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.77% [22][25][26]. - **PP**: In July, the supply of PP increased, with a total output of 342.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.53%. The downstream was in the off - season, with the average starting rate of plastic - weaving sample enterprises at 41.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.39 percentage points. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.45% month - on - month, while the trader inventory increased by 28.28% month - on - month [30][32][35]. Market Outlook - **PE**: In August, the domestic PE output is expected to be 272.71 million tons, basically the same as in July. The downstream demand is expected to improve, with the overall average starting rate of downstream industries increasing by 2% to 40.3%. The agricultural film industry is expected to enter the reserve stage, and the starting rate is expected to increase by about 5.5%. The average starting rate of PE packaging film is expected to increase by 2.5% [41]. - **PP**: In August, the planned maintenance loss is expected to be 54.996 million tons, and the output is expected to increase by 4.58% to 358.20 million tons. The downstream consumption is at the critical stage of transition from the off - season to the peak season, and there is a chance of improvement in overseas orders [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in July experienced a "sharp decline - rebound - decline" roller - coaster行情. The current supply - demand contradiction is sharp. With high inventory and a continuous increase in newly - laid hens, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Although the peak - season market is approaching, it is restricted by weak consumer recovery and resistance to high prices. It is expected that the differentiated trend of the egg futures market, with near - term weakness and long - term strength, will continue. [8][40] - The report suggests continuing the 09 - 01 contract reverse spread strategy and continuously monitoring capacity reduction and downstream demand changes. [9][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Last month, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509. The JD2508 contract hit a record low since its listing this week and continued to decline in subsequent trading days. The JD2509 contract showed an overall weak range - bound trend. As of July 31, the main JD2509 contract closed at 3522 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.45%. [5][12] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - In the main production areas, egg prices rose after falling to the lowest point of the year in mid - July, but then declined in the second half of the month due to factors such as excessive price increases inhibiting consumption and an increase in newly - laid hens. As of July 31, the average price in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, up 0.53 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. - In the main sales areas, egg prices showed a "first - down - then - up" fluctuation. As of July 31, the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, up 0.5 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. [17] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Laying Hen Inventory - In July, the laying hen inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was close to 1.3 billion, a record high, and it is expected to exceed 1.3 billion in August. The expansion of production capacity is mainly due to the slowdown of old - hen culling by farmers in a state of weak profit, forming a negative cycle of "weak profit - slow culling - high inventory". [7][21] 3.2.2 Old Hen Price - As of July 31, the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 5.89 yuan per catty, up 26.12% from the beginning of July. The market has no obvious signs of increased old - hen supply, and farmers still have confidence in the peak - season egg market, so the enthusiasm for culling is not high. [24] 3.2.3 Chicken Chick Price - Affected by the market situation of strong supply and weak demand, the price of commercial - layer chicks continued to decline in July. The average price in July was 3.59 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95%. The pressure on the profit side weakened the replenishment motivation of farmers, and the low utilization rate of hatching eggs by breeding enterprises further suppressed the chick price. [29] 3.2.4 Old - Hen Culling Progress - In July, the culling volume of old hens continued to decline, showing a decreasing trend. The culling rhythm was affected by factors such as egg - price fluctuations, farming expectations, and demand changes. The average culling age of old hens fluctuated slightly, with an overall range of 501 - 504 days. [34] 3.2.5 Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - In July, the laying hen farming cost fluctuated slightly in the range of 3.53 - 3.54 yuan per catty, showing a slight downward trend. The farming profit continued to improve, with the loss narrowing from 0.95 yuan per catty at the beginning of the month to 0.29 yuan per catty at the end of the month. [39]

研究报告 螺纹月报 8 月钢价预计震荡休整，静候金九银十 | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | --- | --- | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | 年 月 报告日期：2025 8 1 | 日星期五 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 交易策略：建议逢低震荡偏多对待 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 一、价格分析 行情回顾：7 月螺纹 2510 合约上涨 6.94%。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 1 日星期五 基本面：国家统计局数据显示，7 月份，受制造业 进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因 素影响，PMI 降至 49.3%，上月下降 0.4 个百分点 ...