研究报告 聚烯烃月报 11 月聚丙烯基本面稍好，但关注重点仍在宏观面 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 聚乙烯方面，10 聚乙烯进口量环比上升 7.61%，国内检修装 置减少，总供应显著增加 6.88%至 398.51 万吨；需求方面跟进不 足，传统"银十"旺季效应减弱，下游工厂开工率虽维持高位， 但新单增长乏力，下游整体开工率环比增幅 2.35%，但农膜开工 缓慢抬升，包装膜需求受电商节提振有限。综合看，受供应压力 及需求抬升有限影响，聚乙烯价格重心下移。 聚丙烯方面，10 月聚丙烯跌后弱反弹，节后归来供需依旧疲 软，并且节后库存累积，市场承压快速下行。临近月底，中美贸 易态度缓和对市场情绪带来一定修复，市场寄希望于四中全会政 策利好，同时临时检修企业增多缓和市场供需矛盾，且新增扩能 接近尾声，市场供需略有改善，市场弱反 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the weak market and the fluctuating decline of the oil and fat sector [1] - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.81% to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract dropped 3.92% to 8,764 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract decreased 3.47% to 9,422 yuan/ton [5][29] - In the medium term, the market will focus on the actual palm oil production changes in Southeast Asian producing areas, the demand of major consumer countries, and the final implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Without clear positive news, the oil and fat sector is expected to face pressure [8][30] Group 2: Important Information - Palm oil: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025, were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% increase from the previous month. The Malaysian palm oil price dropped 4.86%. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 million tons [6][29] - Soybean oil: China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons annually for the next three years. Southeast Asian countries also plan to buy 19 million tons of US soybeans. The US soybean price rose 5.14% this week [7][30] Group 3: Spot Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12] Group 4: Other Data - As of October 24, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 67,000 tons to 1.484 million tons. On October 29, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 19,000 tons to 639,000 tons [15] - As of October 31, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,402,200 tons [18] - As of October 31, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 242 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [19] - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 64 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [20] - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 358 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2512 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed a high - level oscillating trend, ranging from around 21,150 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,425 yuan/ton [9]. (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing's prosperity level. The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production. The new orders index was 48.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in manufacturing market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major manufacturing raw materials. The employment index was 48.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises [4][12][13]. (3) Supply - and - Demand Situation - As of September 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 15,880,586.84 tons, a decrease of 2,408,741.3 tons from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Domestic alumina production was 7.999 million tons, an increase of 74,300 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The domestic operating rate remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year growth of 1.8%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [17]. (4) Inventory Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,574 tons, a decrease of 4,594 tons from the previous week. As of October 30, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, a decrease of 3,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.85%. As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous day [26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are likely to be in a volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [4][38][39] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend with increased price fluctuations, ranging from 82,300 yuan/ton to 89,270 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, operating in the range of 10,253 - 11,200 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - On October 29th local time, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. It also announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting December 1st. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.3%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.7%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 16.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 25.6% [2][11][37] 3. Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous month but a 10.1% year - on - year increase. As of October 30, 2025, the refining fee for Chinese copper smelters was - 4.45 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 42.7 US dollars/kiloton [15] - **Scrap Copper Spread**: As of October 31, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaom was 87,565 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 78,800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 885 yuan/ton [21] 4. Demand Side - As of September 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 437.8 billion yuan, with a 9.9% year - on - year growth rate [23] 5. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 116,140 tons, an increase of 11,348 tons from the previous week. As of October 29, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 135,350 tons, a slight increase of 775 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 10.51%. As of October 30, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 348,662 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 106,600 tons, with a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous week, and the inventories in Guangdong and Wuxi were 19,200 tons and 40,300 tons respectively [29] 6. Outlook - **Price Trend Factor Analysis**: Key factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies (PMI has declined), US policies (uncertainty in the Fed's December rate cut), supply (refined copper processing fees at the bottom, high copper production), demand (slowing power grid investment growth, increasing copper product output), and inventory (significant cumulative inventory of COMEX copper) [36] - **Market Outlook**: Considering various factors such as the Fed's policy, copper supply, demand, and inventory, copper prices are likely to be in a volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [37][38][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the stock index futures market showed a structural differentiation trend. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term. The economic fundamentals are resilient, and the non - manufacturing sector is expanding, with generally optimistic corporate expectations. However, manufacturing slowdown, external uncertainties, and high valuation levels may affect market confidence and limit the upside space of the index [28][29] - It is recommended to maintain a neutral mindset, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely track subsequent economic data and policy trends [30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: In October, A - share major indices showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85% and had a 6 - month consecutive positive line, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by over 1%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 futures (IF) was basically flat, the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed slightly lower, and the SSE 50 futures (IH) performed outstandingly [5] - **Bond Futures**: In October, all bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year bond futures had monthly increases of 2.44%, 0.77%, 0.41%, and 0.17% respectively [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, entering the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stable corporate production and business activities [7][9][12] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, the PE and PB of major indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, along with their percentile positions, showed that the overall market valuation attractiveness was limited [13] - The "total market capitalization/GDP" ratio's percentile in historical data was close to 90%, indicating that the overall market valuation pressure still existed [26][28] 4. Other Data - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread, using the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the dividend yield respectively [21] - **China - Buffett Indicator**: The "total market capitalization/GDP" ratio was 89.80% on November 31, 2025, with a high percentile in historical data, suggesting relatively high market valuation [26] 5. Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term. Positive factors include economic resilience, non - manufacturing expansion, and positive policy signals. Negative factors include manufacturing slowdown, external uncertainties, and high valuation levels [28][29] 6. Operation Suggestions - **Overall Strategy**: Maintain a neutral mindset, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely track economic data and policy trends [30] - **Specific Operations**: For single - side trading, buy on dips but beware of valuation risks; for arbitrage, participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy and pay attention to style - switching signals; for options, use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, as the process of capacity optimization progresses, the market supply - demand relationship will gradually improve, and the far - month contracts are relatively supported due to the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction. In the medium - term, with high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to fall rather than rise. In the short - term, pig prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors. Currently, the supply pressure remains high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to fundamentally change in the short - term, so pig prices may continue to be under pressure, and the market may maintain range - bound fluctuations [7][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - In October 2025, the main contract of live hog futures switched from LH2511 to LH2601, which fluctuated widely after a gap - down opening and dropped significantly overall. By the end of October, the main contract LH2601 fell 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.88%, and closed at 11815 yuan/ton [6][13]. (2) Spot Price - As of October 23, 2025, the national average live hog price was 12.32 yuan/kg, down 0.95 yuan/kg from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of October 31, the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of October 23, the average price of piglets was 25.13 yuan/kg, down 3.12 yuan/kg from the previous month. The prices of 20 - kg foreign - ternary piglets in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan also dropped significantly compared to the previous month [17][21][25]. 2. Supply - Demand Balance Situation (1) Global Live Hog Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live hog supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, an increase of 13,929 thousand heads year - on - year, and the global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, an increase of 505 thousand tons year - on - year [32]. (2) China's Live Hog Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live hog supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, an increase of 11,781 thousand heads year - on - year, and China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, an increase of 592 thousand tons year - on - year [39]. 3. Supply - Side Situation (1) Year - on - Year Live Hog Inventory - As of September 2025, the national live hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, and was at a relatively low historical level [45]. (2) Reproductive Sow Inventory - As of September 2025, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 30 thousand heads (0.07%) and a year - on - year decrease of 270 thousand heads (0.66%), and was at the lowest historical level [50]. (3) Live Hog Slaughter - In the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live hog slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads (1.85%), and was at a relatively high level in the past five years [55]. (4) Pork Production - As of the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons (3.02%), and was at the highest level in the past five years [61]. (5) China's Pork Imports - In September 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 80 thousand tons, the same as the previous year and a month - on - month decrease of 20%, and were at the lowest level in the past five years [66]. 4. Demand - Side Situation (1) Slaughter Volume of Designated Live Hog Slaughtering Enterprises in China - In September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises in China was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 million heads (6.99%), and was at the highest level in the past five years [73]. (2) Pork and Main Meat Production - As of September 30, 2025, the national cumulative main meat production was 731.2 million tons, of which the cumulative pork production was 436.8 million tons, accounting for 59.74% [77]. 5. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.46 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month, and the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.26 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 2025, the feed production was 31.287 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and was at the highest level in the past five years [80][86]. 6. Breeding Benefit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the broiler chicken breeding profit was - 1.1 yuan/bird, all at relatively low historical levels [93][100][105]. 7. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of October 31, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 5.54. According to the standard, the live hog price is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the national reserve operation frequency has increased recently [110]. 8. Recent Policies and Conferences in the Live Hog Industry (1) Live Hog Capacity Regulation Enterprise Symposium - On September 16, the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium, involving capacity control of reproductive sows, restriction of "secondary fattening", and weight reduction of live hog slaughter. The official proposed to reduce the reproductive sow inventory to 39.5 million heads, and many leading pig enterprises responded to the regulation [112][113]. (2) Video Conference on Live Hog Quarantine and Slaughter Work - On October 15, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to strengthen live hog quarantine and slaughter work, emphasizing the importance of quarantine and slaughter supervision, and requiring further optimization of related work to ensure pork product quality and safety [114]. 9. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, the national live hog spot price, binary sow price, and piglet price all declined. The supply pressure remains high, and the actual capacity reduction is slow. The inventory of frozen pork has increased due to the slowdown in sales. The demand has recovered to some extent with the drop in temperature, but the increase is limited. The breeding profit is in a loss state [115][116]. 10. Future Outlook - The same as the core viewpoints, in the long - term, the supply - demand relationship will improve; in the medium - term, pig prices are likely to fall; in the short - term, prices may fluctuate. The current supply pressure is high, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure [7][117]. 11. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main live hog contract in November may maintain low - level range - bound fluctuations. For single - side trading, take a range - bound approach and gradually stop profiting on previous short positions; for arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see for the time being [8][118][119].

研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面改善有限，甲醇或延续震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 3 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，甲醇供需偏弱，甲醇期货大幅回落，至周五下午收盘， 甲醇加权收于 2180 元/吨，较前一周下跌 4.05%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量上升，供给端 仍未能提供支撑。甲醇下游烯烃开工率下降，甲醇需求有所减弱。 库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存上升，企业待发订单量下 降，印证甲醇下游需求走弱。上周港口甲醇卸货有限，港口甲醇 库存下降。利润方面，上周甲醇企业利润延续下滑。综合来看， 甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇现货价仍然弱势。 【后市展望】 短期来看，内地工厂持续高开工，进口货源抵港量依旧充裕， 而下游开工虽有提升但幅度有限，供需表现依旧乏力。预计本周 甲醇市场或仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to experience range - bound trading in the short term due to the multi - factor game on the fundamentals. The macro market's positive news has been realized, dragging down the rubber price center, and the decline of synthetic rubber will also affect the natural rubber price. Although the supply side has some support, there is an expectation of increased supply later. The terminal consumption shows fair performance, but demand lacks remarkable highlights. The natural rubber inventory is continuously decreasing, but the decline rate is slowing down [8][9][89]. Summary by Related Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2601 ranged from 15,030 to 15,670 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on the afternoon of October 31, 2025, the contract was reported at 15,085 yuan/ton, down 250 points or 1.63% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of October 30, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 18,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 31, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,040 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [20][23]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with last week. As of October 30, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 31, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber declined slightly compared with last week [27][30]. Important Market Information - There were multiple significant events including the China - US leaders' meeting, China - US economic and trade consultations, Fed's interest rate cut, statements from the US Treasury Secretary, and economic data releases from various countries. For example, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the US consumer confidence index declined, and China's automobile and heavy - truck sales showed growth [31][33][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of August 31, 2025, among the main natural rubber producing countries, the production in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in India, Vietnam, and China increased. The total production of main producing countries in August 2025 was 987,000 tons, a 64,700 - ton or 6.47% increase from the previous month, with a slightly slower growth rate. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a 13.5% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a 11.2% year - on - year increase. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a 13.98% month - on - month increase [43][47][51]. Demand - side Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the开工 rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's automobile monthly production and sales were 3.2758 million and 3.2264 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 17.15% and 14.86% and month - on - month growth of 16.35% and 12.94% respectively. The monthly sales of heavy trucks in China were 105,583 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95% and a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 103.487 million pieces, a 0.2% year - on - year increase, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 56.3 million pieces, a 10.65% month - on - month decrease [58][62][65]. Inventory - side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 120,900 tons, a decrease of 3,120 tons from last week. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0389 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 1% from the previous month. The total social inventory of dark rubber was 639,000 tons, a 0.3% decrease; the total social inventory of light rubber was 400,000 tons, a 2% month - on - month decrease. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period, including a 1.29% decrease in bonded area inventory and a 1.18% decrease in general trade inventory [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by weather, with high raw material procurement prices last week, providing strong short - term support. However, as the rainfall in some main producing areas decreases, there is an expectation of increased supply. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 742,000 tons, a 11.7% month - on - month and 20.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative imports increased significantly. - Demand: Last week, the tire enterprises'开工 rates declined slightly. The inventory accumulation trend of all - steel tires reversed, and semi - steel tires had a slight inventory reduction. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires in the first nine months increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and the social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber continued to decline slightly [87]. 后市展望 - The short - term trend of the natural rubber futures market is expected to be range - bound. The supply side has short - term support but an expectation of increased supply later. The demand side has fair performance but lacks highlights, and the inventory is decreasing with a slowing decline rate. Key factors to watch include China - US trade relations, anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and zero - tariff policy progress [89][90]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines for now [91][92].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the price - driving logic of jujube futures and spot under the dual pressure of supply and demand, and provides corresponding operation strategies [5][8][9] Group 2: Market Conditions Futures Price - Since October 20, the jujube futures market has declined continuously, with a cumulative decline of 11.17%. As of last Friday's close, the CJ601 contract was reported at 10,145 yuan/ton, down 1.46%, with a trading volume of 245,521 lots and an open interest of 180,474 lots [5][13] Spot Price - The maturity of Xinjiang jujubes is earlier than last year. The orchard - booking in Hotan and Qiemo is basically completed and in the shipping stage. The mainstream orchard - booking price is 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg. The unified - grade prices in Aksu, Alar and Kashgar are stable at 6.75 yuan/kg, 7.15 yuan/kg and 7.5 yuan/kg respectively [6][17] - The prices in the sales areas are under pressure and the trading is light. The arrival in Guangdong Ruyifang decreased by 0.5 trucks compared with the previous week. The prices in markets such as Cui'erzhuang and Henan are in different ranges [7][20] Group 3: Inventory, Profit, and Trade Inventory - The inventory of 36 sample enterprises last week was 9,348 tons, a 2.23% decrease from the previous week and a 73.07% increase year - on - year. The old jujubes are not digested and the new ones are about to be listed, increasing short - term supply pressure [7][24] Profit - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg (2024 season). The first - grade finished product price in Hebei's sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 650 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 2.32 yuan/kg, a 0.05 - yuan/kg decrease from the previous week [28] Import and Export - In September 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,283,671 kg, with an export value of 36,347,933 yuan and an average export price of 15,916.449 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.43% from the previous month and 13.54% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to September was 23,548,402 kg, a 5.12% increase year - on - year [32] Group 4: Outlook and Strategies Market Outlook - Jujubes are at the core node of the alternation of old and new supplies. The new jujubes in the producing areas are harvested earlier. The high inventory of old jujubes and weak demand exacerbate the supply - demand imbalance. If the warehouse receipt registration scale increases unexpectedly, it will increase the pressure on the near - month contract. The market will be in a weak shock pattern [8][33] Operation Strategies - For single - side trading, adopt a short - term high - selling strategy and pay attention to the purchase price in the producing areas, transactions and sales in the sales areas. For arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [9][34]

研究报告 纯碱周报 市场缺乏驱动，价格震荡延续 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1221-1260 元/吨之间运行， 价格窄幅震荡。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 一、纯碱供需情况 截至 2025 年 11 月 31 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 下跌 4 元/吨，周度跌 0.33%，报收 1225 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率回升，截止到 2025 年 10 月 30 日，国内纯碱产量 75.76 万吨，环比增加 1.7 万吨，涨幅 2.29%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 86.89%，前周 84.94%，环 ...