Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts. [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2602 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 21,600 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 22,200 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. From January to November, it increased by 6.0% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 30 had year - on - year growth in added value in November. The US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI also significantly missed expectations, rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. [4][10][11] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In November 2025, there was an alumina supply surplus of 590,000 tons. As of November 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. As of December 11, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period. [13] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 19, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,510 tons, an increase of 515 tons from the previous week. As of December 18, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, with the cancelled warrant ratio at 14.2%. As of December 18, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 510,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous day. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market's main contradiction has shifted from "high inventory" to the game between "short - term supply reduction" and "long - term capacity expansion." Downstream demand has not substantially improved, and the long - term supply pressure from new natural soda ash capacity in Inner Mongolia remains. The price rebound's height and sustainability are challenged, and the market is expected to find a new direction through oscillations. It is recommended to be cautious in participating in the rebound, gradually lay out short positions on rallies for single - sided trading, temporarily hold off on arbitrage, and consider buying put options to replace short positions [8][37] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2605 ranged from 1,123 to 1,203 yuan/ton, with the price center moving down. As of December 19, 2025, the contract rose 50 yuan/ton for the week, a 4.44% increase, closing at 1,176 yuan/ton [5] 2. Supply and Demand of Soda Ash 2.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 721,400 tons, a 1.4 - ton (1.91%) decrease from the previous week. Light soda ash production was 331,100 tons (down 65,000 tons), and heavy soda ash production was 390,300 tons (down 75,000 tons). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.74%, a 1.61% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.22% (down 0.70%), the combined process capacity utilization rate was 73.07% (down 0.22%), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.49% (down 1.33%) [9][11] 2.2 Inventory Analysis - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,499,300 tons, a 33,700 - ton (2.20%) decrease from Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 727,600 tons (up 10,500 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 771,700 tons (down 44,200 tons). Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 5,000 tons (0.33%). Year - on - year, it decreased by 58,100 tons (3.73%) [7][14] 2.3 Shipment Analysis - As of December 18, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 716,400 tons, an 8.12% decrease from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 99.31%, a 6.72 - percentage - point decrease [16] 2.4 Profit Analysis - As of December 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of the combined - process soda ash in China (double - ton) was - 41 yuan/ton, a 16.33% increase from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 66.70 yuan/ton, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [19][24] 3. Downstream Industry Situation 3.1 Float Glass Industry - As of December 18, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, the same as on the 11th. The weekly output from December 12 - 18 was 1,084,900 tons, unchanged from the previous week but a 3.24% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58,558,000 weight cases, a 0.57% increase from the previous week and a 25.73% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.5 days, 0.2 days more than the previous period [27][30] 4. Price Analysis - The price of 5,500 - kcal动力煤 decreased by 5.14% to 738 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt remained stable. The price of light soda ash in Central China increased by 2.61% to 1,180 yuan/ton, while most other regions remained unchanged. The price of heavy soda ash remained stable in most regions. The price of float glass decreased by 1% to 1,086 yuan/ton, and the price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass decreased by 8% to 11.5 yuan/square meter. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu and dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained stable, while the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 1.76% to 2,434 yuan/ton [36] 5. Operation Suggestions - Single - sided: Be cautious in participating in the rebound and gradually lay out short positions on rallies. Arbitrage: Temporarily hold off. Options: Consider buying put options to replace short positions to reduce market shocks from sudden news [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 2.63%. The port iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term. For single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Disk Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not provided in the given text [6][10] II. Important Market Information - In 2025, China's steel exports continued the trend of "increasing volume but decreasing price". From January to November, China exported 1.08 billion tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the annual export volume is expected to reach a record high. The average export price of steel was 696 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. - Australian mining company Genmin Limited recently completed a private placement financing of 25.7 million Australian dollars (approximately 17 million US dollars) for the subsequent development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. The project has confirmed ore resources of about 759 million tons, with an initial planned production capacity of 5 million tons per year, which is expected to increase to at least 10 million tons per year, and commercial production is expected to start around the end of 2026 [13] III. Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 770,000 tons from the previous month; the average import price was 101.49 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.94 US dollars per ton from the previous month. - As of November 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 61.849 million tons, a decrease of 4.993 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 30.963 million tons, an increase of 1.708 million tons from the first half of the month [18][20] IV. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal wire rods and screws, but specific analysis is not provided in the given text [21][25][30] V. Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 87.2395 million tons, a decrease of 1.1025 million tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8056 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons month - on - month; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.09 days, a decrease of 0.09 days month - on - month. - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.20%; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%; the daily molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 national ports was 155.1263 million tons, an increase of 812,100 tons month - on - month; the daily port clearance volume was 3.1345 million tons, a decrease of 57,400 tons; the number of ships at the port was 111, an increase of 4. - Last week, Mysteel's statistics on the full sample of independent coking enterprises showed that the capacity utilization rate was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11%; the daily coke production was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons; the coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons. - Mysteel's survey on the profit situation per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants across the country showed that the national average profit per ton of coke was 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 66 yuan/ton [32][33] VI. Market Outlook - The port iron ore inventory continues to accumulate, and the molten iron production continues to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term [35] VII. Operation Strategies - Single - side trading: Be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term natural rubber market has a mix of long and short factors. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia geopolitical conflict, Sino - US trade relations, weather disturbances and raw material output in major rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, and the progress of the zero - tariff policy [9][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2605 ranged from 15,030 to 15,550 yuan/ton, with a first - rising - then - falling trend and overall a slight decline. As of December 19, 2025, it closed at 15,190 yuan/ton, down 40 points or 0.26% for the week [6][16]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 19, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [21][24]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main natural rubber contract futures price expanded slightly last week. As of December 19, 2025, the basis was - 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic natural rubber price fell slightly last week, while the foreign price rose slightly [28][31]. Important Market Information - **International News**: European leaders plan to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine. The Fed's Williams said that monetary policy is well - prepared for 2026, with expected inflation and unemployment rate changes. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the US economic outlook, and Trump will announce the Fed chairman candidate in early January [32]. - **US Economic Data**: In November, US non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Retail sales in October were flat, and the December PMI values declined. Core CPI and overall CPI in November were lower than expected, but the inflation report's reliability was questioned. The number of initial jobless claims last week decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased [33]. - **Chinese Economic Data**: In November, China's industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales increased year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment from January to November decreased year - on - year. The housing price in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased in November. The fiscal revenue from January to November increased year - on - year, and the securities trading stamp duty revenue increased significantly [35]. - **Automobile and Tire Data**: In November, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the growth rate declined. Heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in December is about 2.3 million, with a slight increase month - on - month and a decline year - on - year [36][37]. Supply - Side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 1.071 million tons, a 3.45% increase from the previous month. The output of Thailand and China decreased slightly, while that of Malaysia and India increased slightly [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber output was 779,000 tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative output was 8.169 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year increase [47][50]. - **Tire Imports**: As of November 30, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 10,300 tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous month [55]. Demand - Side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 71.39%, down 0.18% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.14%, up 0.07% from last week [59]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a 2.8% year - on - year increase and a 5.1% month - on - month increase; sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a 3.4% year - on - year increase and a 3.2% month - on - month increase. Heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a 65.38% year - on - year increase and a 6.64% month - on - month increase [63][66][72]. - **Tire Output and Exports**: In November 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. Exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 51.73 million pieces, an 8.11% decrease from the previous month [75][80]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of December 19, 2025, the SHFE natural rubber futures inventory was 87,160 tons, an increase of 30,170 tons from last week. As of December 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.152 million tons, a 2.6% increase; the total inventory in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a 2.08% increase [87]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas main - producing areas are in the peak supply season, with an expected increase in raw material supply. Domestic production is decreasing, but it is difficult to offset the overseas supply increase. The ongoing Thailand - Cambodia geopolitical tension supports raw material prices. In November 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: Last week, tire enterprise operating rates changed little, with slow shipment and rising inventory. In November 2025, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year but with a declining growth rate. Heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken as the weather gets colder [89]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SHFE inventory increased significantly, and China's social and Qingdao total natural rubber inventories continued to rise with a significant increase in the accumulation rate [89]. 后市展望 - The macro - environment is positive, with a warm market sentiment. The supply side is supported by the Thailand - Cambodia geopolitical situation. Terminal consumption is good but has a weakening expectation. Domestic inventories are seasonally accumulating with an increasing rate. The short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [9][91]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - **Viewpoint**: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [10][92]. - **Operation Strategy**: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for now; aggressive investors can consider going long on dips. For arbitrage, focus on the positive spread opportunity of going long on the 01 contract and short on the 05 contract. For options, stay on the sidelines [10][93].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol did not improve significantly, and methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market may continue in a "weak balance" state. In the short term, the price has limited upside and downside potential. The sustainability of port inventory reduction needs to be observed. With the traditional downstream entering the year - end consumption off - season, the demand for methanol is expected to be weak. The subsequent rebound space of methanol futures may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted, with the methanol weighted closing at 2089 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 1.42% drop from the previous week. The port methanol market showed a low - level range - bound trend, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices declined weakly, with the price in the Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1980 - 2007 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2200 - 2223 yuan/ton. [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis (1) Production - From December 5 - 11, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,039,705 tons, an increase of 16,240 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.81%, a 0.81% increase from the previous week. [14] (2) Downstream Demand - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: The MTO industry's start - up decreased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 77.54%, a 9.94 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 8.98%, a 13.96% increase from the previous week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate increased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased to 41.49%. [19][20] (3) Inventory - As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous period, a 2.40% decrease. The sample enterprises' order backlog was 207,500 tons, a decrease of 32,200 tons from the previous period, a 13.45% decrease. The port sample inventory was 1,234,400 tons, a decrease of 115,000 tons from the previous period, an 8.52% decrease. [21][23] (4) Profit - From December 5 - 11, 2025, the economic losses at the upstream production end were slightly improved. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 29.29% increase from the previous week; in Shandong, the average profit was - 145.10 yuan/ton, a 37.62% increase; in Shanxi, the average profit was - 203.30 yuan/ton, a 15.92% increase; the weekly average profit of methanol made from coke oven gas in Hebei was 189.00 yuan/ton, a 3.08% decrease. [27][29] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls, with an estimated production of about 2.0554 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 90.50%, an increase from last week. - Downstream demand: The overall start - up of the olefin industry may still decline. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decrease, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate may increase, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may rise, and the chloride capacity utilization rate may decrease. The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 362,100 tons, a slight increase from last week. If the port unloading is smooth, the port inventory may accumulate. Overall, the methanol fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited. [32][33][34][35]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, ranging from around 90,700 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 94,570 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the LME copper futures price showed an oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, with the contract price running around 11,434 - 11,952 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In November 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the average national consumer price was flat compared with the same period of the previous year. In November, the national consumer price decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [3][14][44]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 93,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,020 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 92,820 yuan/ton, 92,860 yuan/ton, 92,970 yuan/ton, and 92,910 yuan/ton respectively. The current average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [17]. - As of December 12, 2025, the electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The current spot premium is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [17]. 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.03 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.38 US cents/pound. As of December 12, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumao was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 83,600 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 1,870 yuan/ton. The current refined - scrap price difference is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [24]. 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 12, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389 tons, an increase of 484 tons compared with the previous week [31]. - As of December 10, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 164,975 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 40.4% [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 447,298 tons, an increase of 2,132 tons compared with the previous trading day [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,500 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 14,900 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 35,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 600 tons compared with the previous week [31]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The copper processing fee continues the downward trend and is still at an extremely low level. The refined - scrap copper price difference continues to expand, and the scrap copper price rises relatively slowly. The Shanghai copper inventory has a slight increase, and the inventory level is at a relatively high position in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [3][44]. 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, affected by the corn auction news, the market's bearish sentiment quickly rose, and both futures and spot prices weakened. Currently, the grain sales progress in the producing areas is faster than the same period last year, increasing the supply in the spot market. The expectation of overdue wheat auctions has further dampened the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. However, recent snow and rain in the north have reduced the arrival of corn trucks in the North China producing areas, tightening the spot market supply and supporting prices. In the short term, corn prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [9][80]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (一)期货价格 - Last week, the corn futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of the night session on Friday, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,242 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, and C2603 closed at 2,234 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The CBOT corn futures main contract fluctuated, closing at 440.50 cents per bushel [6][13][17]. (二)现货价格 - Last week, the national average weekly price of corn was 2,321 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous week. Corn prices in Northeast China declined slightly, those in North China first rose then fell, prices in the selling areas decreased slightly, and prices at the northern ports adjusted narrowly [8][22][24]. (三)基差 - As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - the main contract was 58 yuan/ton, 23 yuan/ton stronger than the previous week [28]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - The total sown area of 8 major field crops in the US in 2026 is expected to decrease slightly. Market expectations for the ending stocks of US wheat, corn, and soybeans in 2025/26 will be moderately adjusted. Analysts expect Brazil's total corn production to be 1.3196 billion tons, slightly higher than the November estimate. Brazil's corn exports in November increased compared to last year. Ukraine's grain exports from July to December 5 decreased compared to last year. Argentina's corn planting progress has accelerated. The US Department of Agriculture will release export sales reports, and analysts expect US corn export net sales to be between 1 - 2 million tons for the week ending November 6, 2025 [29][30][33]. - Many regions and institutions have released a series of information on corn production, exports, and policies, including the US, Brazil, Ukraine, Argentina, and others. For example, Brazil's corn export forecast for December has been raised, and the US government will provide a $12 billion agricultural assistance plan [34][35][40]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 1.饲料企业库存情况 - As of December 11, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 29.53 days, an increase of 0.86 days from the previous week, up 3% month - on - month and down 2.51% year - on - year. Feed enterprise inventories continued to increase this period but remained at a low level in recent years [47]. 2.深加工企业玉米库存情况 - As of December 11, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.94 million tons, up 6.75% month - on - month and down 28.8% year - on - year [51]. 3.深加工企业玉米消耗情况 - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.4167 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.09 million tons from the previous week. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [56]. 4.深加工企业开机情况 - Last week, the corn processing volume, starch output, and operating rate of corn starch enterprises all increased slightly. The total corn processing volume of major corn starch processing enterprises was 635,700 tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous week [61]. 5.深加工企业利润情况 - Recently, high corn prices have shrunk the profits of deep - processing enterprises. However, the profits of processing enterprises in Shandong have improved. As of last Friday, the hedging by - product profits of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang showed different trends [66]. 6.进出口情况 - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous month and 110,000 tons from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a decrease of 11.84 million tons from the same period last year [70]. 4.关联品情况 1.玉米淀粉 - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The prices in different regions showed different trends [75]. 2.生猪 - Last week, the hog price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The national average hog slaughter price was 11.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week, down 0.27% month - on - month and 28.59% year - on - year [79]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - Short - term corn prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. For trading strategies, treat it as a fluctuating market for single - sided trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [9][80][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market lacks obvious drivers in the short term, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2605 ranged from 14,960 to 15,350 yuan/ton, showing a trend of first declining and then rising, with an overall slight increase. As of the closing on Friday, December 12, 2025, the contract closed at 15,230 yuan/ton, up 165 points or 1.1% for the week [6][15] Spot Price - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week [19] Port Arrival Price - As of December 12, 2025, the port arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,090 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with last week. As of December 12, 2025, the basis was maintained at -280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 135 yuan/ton compared with last week [26] Domestic and Overseas Prices - As of December 12, 2025, both domestic and overseas prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared with last week [29] Important Market Information - On the early morning of December 11, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and launched a short-term Treasury bill purchase plan [30] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week surged, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased [30] - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and inflation is expected to decline significantly next year [30] - US President Trump said he would support immediate and significant interest rate cuts [31] - ADP data showed that the average weekly employment growth of US private employers ended a four - week decline [31] - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP forecast for 2025 - 2028 [31] - The "Fed whisperer" said that there is a difference of opinion within the Fed on whether inflation or the employment market is a greater concern [31] - The US employment cost index growth rate slowed down in the third quarter [31] - The UNCTAD report showed that global trade volume will increase by about 7% in 2025 [32] - The World Bank and the IMF raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate in 2025 [33] - China's CPI and PPI data for November 2025 were released [33] - The Central Economic Work Conference was held, setting the tone for next year's economic work [34] - The China Index Academy predicted the situation of the real estate market in 2026 [34] - The passenger car market retail data for November 2025 showed a decline in fuel - vehicle sales and an increase in new - energy vehicle sales [35] - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly [35] - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales increased significantly year - on - year [36] Supply - Side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber producing countries was 1.071 million tons, an increase of 3.57 tons or 3.45% from the previous month, with a continued slight decline in the growth rate [41] - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber output was 782,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [44] - As of October 31, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber output was 7.387 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [47] - As of October 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.26% [50] Demand - Side Situation - As of December 11, 2025, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week [53] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month [57][60] - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month [66] - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly tire outer tube output decreased year - on - year [69] - As of October 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month [74] Inventory - Side Situation - As of December 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 11,460 tons compared with last week [81] - As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory, Qingdao's total inventory, bonded area inventory, and general trade inventory all increased [81] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The overseas main producing areas have a loose supply expectation, but the geopolitical tension between Thailand and Cambodia supports the cost. China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year [82] - Demand side: The operating rates of tire enterprises increased slightly last week, but the shipment was slow, and the tire inventory started to accumulate again. The growth rate of automobile production and sales in November decreased, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The export of rubber tires in the first 10 months increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken [83] - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and Qingdao's total inventory all increased last week [83] 后市展望 - Macro: The Fed's interest - rate cut and China's economic work conference have warmed market sentiment. - Fundamentals: Supply has a loose expectation, but the cost is supported. Demand is good but has a weakening expectation. Inventory is seasonally accumulating. In the short term, the market lacks obvious drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [84][85] Views and Operation Strategies - This week's view: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate within a range in the short term [86] - Operation strategies: Adopt an interval operation strategy for single - side trading; pay attention to the band opportunity of going long on contract 01 and short on contract 05 for arbitrage; temporarily hold off on options [87]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current soda ash market lacks strong drivers. Under the pressure of high supply and expected future capacity increase, price rebound is weak. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the transfer of the main contract and changes in macro - sentiment. [7][37] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a short - term oscillatory mindset. Considering shorting lightly on rebounds for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and buying put options to replace short positions for options trading. [38] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation Production and Capacity Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 735,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,500 tons or 4.48%. Light soda ash production was 337,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 397,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons. [8] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.35%, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 73.29%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.82%, a week - on - week increase of 3%. [10] Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,494,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,200 tons or 0.55%. Light soda ash inventory was 703,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,300 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 790,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,900 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 44,300 tons or 2.88%. Year - on - year, it decreased by 140,200 tons or 8.58%. [14] Shipment Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 779,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 106.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 percentage points. [16] Profit Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process of Chinese soda ash was - 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50.25%. The cost decreased due to stable raw material salt prices and falling power coal prices, while the soda ash price was stable and the by - product ammonium chloride price increased. [19] - As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process of Chinese soda ash was - 67.60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.31%. The cost decreased due to stable sea salt prices and slightly falling anthracite prices, while the soda ash price was stable. [24] Downstream Industry Situation Float Glass Industry Production - As of December 4, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 155,000 tons, a 1.4% decrease compared to the 27th. The weekly production of national float glass from November 28 to December 4, 2025, was 1,085,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. [26] Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92 million weight boxes or 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days were 26.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days compared to the previous period. [30] Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contract of soda ash futures continued to decline in a volatile manner, and the overall market sentiment was weak. The fundamental situation was a multi - factor intertwined pattern of "increasing supply, stable demand, and inventory reduction". [37] - On the supply side, after the maintenance of some devices was completed, the weekly production and capacity utilization rate increased significantly, indicating that the high - supply state remained unchanged. [37] - There was still rigid demand support, and the shipment of enterprises was acceptable, driving the continuous decline of the total inventory of manufacturers for several weeks, and the year - on - year change had turned negative, which gave soda ash manufacturers a certain price - holding mentality. [37] - However, the absolute level of inventory was still high, and the expectation of new capacity in the future continued to suppress the market. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was average, and downstream procurement was mainly for low - price rigid demand, with insufficient intention for large - scale stockpiling. [37] - On the cost side, the decline in power coal prices improved the profit of the co - production process, but the industry as a whole was still in the loss range, which formed a bottom support. [37]

研究报告 油脂周报 市场利空，油脂震荡回落 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡回落，全周豆油 Y2605 合约下跌 1.06%， 以 7994 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2605 合约下跌 2.40%以 8552 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2605 合约下跌 0.64%，以 9347 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 一、现货分析： 截止至 2025 年 12 月 11 日，张家港地区四级豆油现货价格 8,570 元/吨，较上一交易 日上涨 50 元/吨。从季节性角度来分析，当前张家港地区四级豆油现货价格较近 5 年相比 维持在较低水平。 截止至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，广东地区 24 度棕榈油现货价格 8,580 元/吨，较上一交易 日下跌 100 元/吨。从季节性角度来分析，当前广东地区 24 ...