Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The current soda ash market is under triple pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." Although the price is at a historically low level, the market is expected to remain under pressure until there is a substantial reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on enterprise production cut trends and marginal changes in terminal demand [9][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization Increase**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons or 2.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. Among them, the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 88.78% (down 0.42% week - on - week), the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.74% (up 4.82% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.39% (up 3.12% week - on - week) [10][12]. - **Inventory Pressure Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons or 0.94% from the previous Monday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 745,500 tons or 64.92%. Although transportation improved and shipments increased, the overall inventory continued to accumulate [8][14]. - **Shipment Volume and Rate Improve**: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 732,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.48%. The overall shipment rate was 96.23%, a week - on - week increase of 5.54 percentage points [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - alkali soda ash was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese co - production soda ash (double - ton) was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Production Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 7th. The weekly production from August 8 - 14, 2025, was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week but a year - on - year decrease of 5.29% [28]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases**: As of August 14, 2025, the float glass industry's operating rate was 75.34%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.579 million weight boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most soda ash products in different regions showed a downward or stable trend. For example, the price of light soda ash in Central China decreased from 1,200 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67%. The price of heavy soda ash in East China decreased from 1,300 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% [36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The domestic soda ash market continued to operate weakly last week, with the supply - demand contradiction further deepening. Supply pressure increased, inventory pressure was significant, cost - end support weakened, and downstream demand did not improve. The market is expected to remain under pressure until inventory is substantially reduced [40]. 5. Operation Suggestions - **Single - side**: Look for long - position opportunities based on the cash cost line. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The corn futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The main contract has switched to 2511, with the price breaking down. As spring corn is gradually coming onto the market, the supply will be further supplemented. Meanwhile, the开机 rate of downstream deep - processing enterprises remains low, and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid demand, showing low purchasing enthusiasm [9][61]. - The recommended trading strategies are to take a bearish approach on rallies for single - side trading, adopt a reverse spread strategy between near and far - term contracts for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [9][62]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - Last Friday, the main corn futures contract switched to 2511. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week. As of last Friday's close, the main c2511 contract was reported at 2,190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%, with a trading volume of 484,753 lots and an open interest of 828,457 lots [6][13]. - Last Friday, the CBOT December new - crop corn contract closed at 405.75 cents per bushel, a gain of 2.14% [6][16]. (2) Spot Price - In the Northeast, corn prices were under pressure and showed a weak trend last week. Traders' inventories were limited, terminal demand was weak, deep - processing enterprises had sufficient inventories, and feed enterprises also had relatively ample stocks with low purchasing willingness. As of last Friday, the reference price of second - grade corn in Harbin was 2,195 yuan/ton, and in Changchun was 2,250 yuan/ton, both down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][22]. - In North China, corn prices were slightly weaker. The market's bullish expectation cooled, and traders actively sold their stocks. Although the overall grain supply was tight, enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace, leading to a continuous decline in inventories. As of last Friday, the reference price of deep - processing corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - In the sales areas, corn prices were generally stable with partial slight declines. With the upcoming new - crop corn harvest, the price of old - crop corn dropped significantly. Downstream feed enterprises mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and consumed their previous inventories. As of last Friday, the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Chengdu was 2,490 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 2,580 yuan/ton, both down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - The corn markets at the north and south ports showed a differentiated trend. The price at Beigang was basically stable, with most port traders out of business, and inventory and shipments gradually declining. The price at Nangang rose slightly, driven by the slight increase in the futures market. Currently, the inventory at southern ports has slightly decreased, and actual trading by traders was dull. As of last Friday, the quoted price of second - grade corn at Jinzhou Port was 2,300 yuan/ton, and at Shekou Port was 2,430 yuan/ton [8][23]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - France's Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2025 corn production forecast and raised its wheat production forecast, which may affect the corn supply - demand pattern and international trade flow in Europe [24]. - The State Council Executive Meeting passed the draft of the Law on Farmland Protection and Quality Improvement, emphasizing farmland protection and improvement, which will have a long - term impact on China's agricultural production and grain supply and may change the future planting structure and yield of crops such as corn [24]. - Two departments issued an announcement on the re - allocation of 2025 agricultural product import tariff quotas, which may affect the corn import rhythm and market supply expectations [24]. - Russia's Ministry of Agriculture reduced the export tariffs on wheat and corn to zero, which may increase the competitiveness of Russian corn in the international market and affect the global corn trade pattern [24]. - The policy of subsidies for corn and soybean producers in Liaoning Province in 2025 helps to stabilize corn production and ensure domestic supply [24]. - India's increased ethanol production has led farmers to switch from oilseed to corn cultivation, which may increase India's domestic corn supply and reduce oilseed production, affecting the global corn market supply - demand pattern [25]. - Ukrainian corn for October shipment has a premium over the forward price due to delayed harvest and optimistic production prospects, reflecting the market's expectation of short - term supply tightness [25]. - As of August 7, the average price of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in 34 regions of the United States was 143 US dollars per ton, unchanged from a week ago. The US corn spot price continued to decline, while the soybean meal price remained stable [25]. - The joint statement of the China - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced that the China - US tariffs will remain at the current level for the next 90 days, but the import of some agricultural products may resume [25]. - The US CPI data for July showed a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%, in line with expectations, which strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and may affect the global agricultural product market capital flow [25]. - Ukraine's Ministry of Economy raised its 2025 grain production forecast from 54 million tons to 56 million tons, mainly due to higher - than - expected corn production, which may affect the global corn supply pattern [26]. - India's policy of promoting the use of corn and rice to replace sugarcane for ethanol production has led to a decrease in oilseed planting area and an increase in corn planting area, which may affect the global corn supply - demand balance in the long term [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report showed that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 16.7 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 13%, and the planting area has been increased by 2.1 million acres to 97.3 million acres, causing the CBOT corn futures to plunge by more than 3% [26]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn reached 83.7%, and the first - season corn harvest was completed at 99.9%, increasing the South American supply and putting pressure on the global corn market [26]. - A US private exporter reported a sale of 315,488 tons of corn to Mexico, with 294,658 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season, indicating that international demand still exists [26]. - Zambia's cabinet approved the export of 500,000 tons of surplus corn to southern Africa, which may increase regional corn supply and affect the international corn trade pattern [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August sowing area report showed that the US corn sowing area increased significantly in 2025, while the sowing areas of soybeans and wheat decreased, which may affect future corn supply [27]. - South Korea's FLC purchased 65,000 tons of feed corn at a CNF price of 226.05 US dollars per ton, expected to arrive in South Korea around December 20, indicating that international corn trade activities are still ongoing, but demand has not increased significantly [28]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of August 14, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07%. The corn inventory of national feed enterprises continued to decline last week. Although new - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market in some areas, downstream feed enterprises mainly met their rigid demand. Due to the cancellation of railway freight preferential policies in some northwestern provinces, transportation costs increased, and the corn supply in the sales areas mainly came from the Northeast, western Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi [32]. (2) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - According to a survey, the total corn inventory of 96 national corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.10%. The corn inventory of national deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. Deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast mainly replenished their stocks through contracted grain arrivals, while those in North China mainly sourced from local and Northeast grain. Enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace and mostly pressured prices when purchasing [38]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises'开机情况 - Last week, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons; the weekly national corn starch output was 289,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons; the weekly开机率 was 55.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The开机率 of the corn starch industry rebounded slightly last week, with enterprises both increasing production and undergoing maintenance. The开机率 may decline this week [42]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Last week, the hedged by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was - 146 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it was - 139 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. Due to the weak adjustment of corn prices and the rise in by - product prices, although the corn starch price declined, the enterprise production profit rebounded [47]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - As of August 14, 149 major national corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.1406 million tons of corn last week, a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons. Among them, corn starch processing enterprises consumed 413,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons; amino acid enterprises consumed 175,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons; citric acid enterprises consumed 53,900 tons, unchanged from the previous month; alcohol enterprises consumed 268,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,600 tons [51]. 4.关联品情况分析 (1) Corn Starch - As of August 14, the mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong was 2,830 - 2,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it was 2,870 - 3,020 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it was 2,720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; in Heilongjiang, it was 2,620 - 2,640 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The corn starch market price continued to be weak last week. On one hand, the raw material cost slightly decreased, and new order volumes were not ideal, so enterprises lowered prices to gain more orders. On the other hand, the开机率 of corn starch production rebounded, resulting in abundant market supply. With the approaching back - to - school season and the double - festival stocking period, downstream market inquiry activities increased, and the demand in the civilian field showed signs of recovery. The demand for syrup was strong in the peak season, and the overall demand side has positive expectations. However, due to the approaching new - corn harvest, downstream enterprises and traders are more cautious, and their purchases are mainly to meet rigid - demand inventory replenishment [55]. (2)生猪 - Last week, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.67 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decline of 1.94% and a year - on - year decline of 34.84%. The hog price continued to decline last week. The current oversupply situation in the breeding sector has further intensified. After the hog price reached a阶段性 low, the downward momentum has weakened, while the demand side still lacks obvious positive factors [60].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the domestic natural rubber futures main contract fluctuated upward and rose slightly. Looking ahead, the overall macro - atmosphere warmed up last week, which boosted the rubber price. The supply side had support, the demand side performed okay, and the social inventory and Qingdao total inventory of natural rubber continued to decline with an expanding decline rate. It is expected that the disk may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation in the short term [8][91] - The report suggests that for unilateral operations, investors should continue to hold long positions, consider taking profits at high prices, and pay attention to the pressure near the semi - annual line; for arbitrage, consider conducting 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage at an appropriate time; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][93] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 15,565 to 16,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price fluctuated upward and rose slightly overall. As of the close on the afternoon of August 15, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,905 yuan/ton, rising 355 points or 2.28% for the week [6][15] Spot Price - As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned full - latex (SCRWF) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week [20] - As of August 15, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,230 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [23] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned full - latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,155 yuan/ton, an expansion of 105 yuan/ton from the previous week [27] - As of August 15, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber rose slightly compared with the previous week [30] Important Market Information - Macroeconomic data: US July PPI soared, CPI was mixed, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was over 90%. The US government expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and the US Treasury Secretary called for a rate cut [30][31][32] - International relations: Trump and Putin held a meeting in Alaska, and Sino - US reciprocal tariffs were extended for 90 days [31][35] - Domestic economic data: In July, China's industrial added value and social consumption increased year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined month - on - month, and the inventory decreased [35][36] - Automobile industry data: In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [37] Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 835,400 tons, an increase of 112,700 tons or 15.6% from the previous month. The output of Thailand increased significantly, while that of Indonesia decreased slightly [43] - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 4.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [48][52] - As of June 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [56] - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 634,000 tons, a 27.2% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [90] Demand - side Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased by 2.28% to 72.07%, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased by 2.09% to 63.09% [58] - As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% [62][65] - As of July 31, 2025, the monthly sales volume of Chinese heavy - duty trucks was 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26% [71] - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of Chinese tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [74][79] - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 4.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [90] Inventory - side Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 179,930 tons, an increase of 3,650 tons from the previous week [89] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 480,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [89] - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 619,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24% to 75,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11% to 544,600 tons [89] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Currently in the peak supply season of global natural rubber, recent rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas affected the release of new rubber, boosting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year [90] - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly, and that of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire enterprises eased, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult. Downstream product enterprises remained on the sidelines and maintained just - in - time procurement. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - duty truck sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [90] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao total inventory continued to decline [90] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The overall macro - atmosphere warmed up last week, with mixed US July inflation data, Sino - US reciprocal tariffs extended for 90 days, and the US - Russia meeting boosting market risk appetite. The supply side has pressure due to increased new rubber output, and the demand side has mixed performance. Considering the decline in inventory, the disk is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation in the short term [8][91] - Key points to follow include macro - sentiment changes, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigation updates, and Sino - US tariff changes [92]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of edible oils fluctuated after a sharp rise, driven by positive news. The domestic vegetable oil market has been rising alternately due to multiple factors such as raw material costs, biodiesel policies, and trade relations. The positive impact of raw material costs on edible oils is expected to continue, and the domestic edible oil market is expected to remain strong. However, after continuous price increases, there is significant upward pressure, and short - term sharp fluctuations are possible [8][31][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review and Important Information - **Futures Prices**: This week, the Y2601 soybean oil futures contract rose 1.74% to close at 8,534 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil futures contract rose 5.11% to close at 9,460 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil futures contract rose 2.05% to close at 9,757 yuan/ton [5][29]. - **Palm Oil**: According to the August Malaysian Palm Oil MPOB report, in July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; and the end - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The production and inventory data were lower than expected, and the report was positive, driving the Malaysian palm oil futures price up 5.27%. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026 [6][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: On August 12, after the market closed, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed in the form of a deposit. Starting from August 14, 2025, importers purchasing Canadian rapeseed through Canadian companies need to provide a deposit ratio of up to 75.8% to Chinese customs. The US soybean price rose 5.70% this week [7][30]. b. Spot Analysis - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [9]. - **Palm Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 1.308 million tons. On August 13, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 565,000 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,735,500 tons [16][20]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years. The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21][24].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and methanol is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in methanol fundamentals, methanol futures oscillated narrowly. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2430 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous week. The average price of the port methanol market declined, while the inland market rose [12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,845,225 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 81.61%, a week - on - week drop of 3.55%. The number of newly - overhauled devices exceeded those that resumed production [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand was stable. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed mixed trends. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased [17][19]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. The port sample inventory was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous period [20][24]. - **Profit**: Most methanol enterprises' profits declined last week, with only the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol showing a slight increase [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol devices resuming production is expected to exceed those under overhaul. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.8873 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 83.47%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand is expected to remain stable overall. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products are expected to change slightly. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate is expected to decline, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to increase [32][35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 292,300 tons, remaining at a low level. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the soda ash futures are expected to continue the pattern of price pressure. With the continuous increase in capacity utilization and output on the supply side, high inventory of manufacturers, and a decline in the shipment rate, the spot pressure is significant. The marginal cost support is weakening, and the profit of the dual - alkali process has shrunk significantly. The downstream demand lacks strong support, as the inventory of float glass has increased and the real estate recovery is slow. Under the background of strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory, the main contract SA2601 may continue to be under pressure. If the weekly output remains at 700,000 tons and the inventory reduction is less than expected, there is still a risk of breaking through the lower limit even at a historically low price [8][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated between 1,298 - 1,388 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon closing on August 1, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 fell by 1 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 0.08%, closing at 1,332 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.41%, compared with 80.27% last week. Among them, the light soda ash production was 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 89.20%, a week - on - week increase of 2.80%, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 6.06%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 6.10% [7][9][11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,865,100 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons from Monday, or 0.72%. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 69,300 tons, or 3.86%. The inventory of light soda ash was 717,600 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1,147,500 tons. The inventory at the same period last year was 1,143,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 721,200 tons, or 63.05% [7][14]. - **Shipment**: According to Longzhong Information on August 7, this week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali process for soda ash in China was 56.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the dual - alkali process for soda ash (per two tons) was 68.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [18][21]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Output**: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 31st. The national float glass production from August 1 - 7, 2025, was 1,117,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94% [24]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million weight boxes, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [29]. 3.4 Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 20 yuan/ton, or 3.06%, to 673 yuan/ton. The price of原盐 - 井矿盐in East China remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions decreased to varying degrees, while the prices in some regions remained unchanged. The price of float glass decreased by 36 yuan/ton, or 2.91%, to 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of photovoltaic glass (2.0) increased by 1 yuan/square meter, or 10%, to 11 yuan/square meter. The price of caustic soda (32% alkali) in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, the price of ammonium chloride (dry ammonium) in Henan remained unchanged at 420 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 80 yuan/ton, or 3.28%, to 2,360 yuan/ton [36].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. The spot market also showed weakness, with prices in both the main production and sales areas dropping. The imbalance between supply and demand in the egg market has intensified, with high supply and weak demand due to factors such as the increase in newly - laid hens, high - temperature weather, and low consumer confidence. Although the market demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase of eggs during the peak season may be weaker than expected due to the pressure on the breeding side [5][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. By the end of last Friday, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 153,259 lots and an open interest of 203,664 lots [15]. (2) Spot Price - In the main production areas, the average egg price last week was 3.01 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty, or 7.10%. In the main sales areas, the average price was 3.04 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 yuan per catty, or 6.17%. The decline in prices in the production areas affected the sales areas, and downstream procurement became more cautious [19]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks was 3.11 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 yuan per chick, or 4.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The current market is characterized by an abundant supply of chicken chicks and weak demand [23]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.71 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 yuan per catty, or 3.22%. The decline in egg prices hit the confidence of farmers, increasing the willingness to sell, but the terminal demand was weak [27]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: In July, the national inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.292 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.04%. The number of newly - laid hens has increased month - on - month [32]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of the representative market in the main production areas was 6216.03 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.68%. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and downstream purchasers are cautious [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens at the sample points was 452,200, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. Some farmers chose to slaughter old hens, but most still maintained a pressure - stocking state [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Sales Area Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume in the Beijing and Guangdong markets decreased last week. In Beijing, the trading activity was low in the first half of the week and increased slightly at the end of the week. In Guangdong, the purchasing enthusiasm increased in the middle and late weeks [45]. - **Sales Area Sales Volume**: As of last Thursday, the weekly egg sales volume was 6003.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%. The sales volume was slightly boosted by the downstream replenishment demand [49]. (3) Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.89 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.15 days. The egg inventory increased week - on - week due to increased supply and weak demand [53]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, or 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.53 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan per catty, or 82.76%. The increase in soybean meal prices pushed up the feed cost [57]. 3. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current supply of eggs remains high, and the imbalance between supply and demand restricts the increase in egg prices during the peak season. Although the demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase may be weaker than expected. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds in the medium term [8][58][59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, the 2601 contract of rebar rose 0.49%. Recently, the sentiment in the black market has returned to rationality, and steel prices are mainly stable and fluctuating. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips and oscillations [4][5][34][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures price**: Rebar futures main contract daily K - line chart [7][8] - **Spot price**: As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [10][13] - **Basis and spread**: Rebar basis (active contract) [14][19] Important Market Information - On August 8, six major exchanges issued an announcement on matters related to algorithmic trading. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Trump's statement about possible secondary tariffs on China [17] Supply - side Situation - Tangshan blast furnace operating rate [18] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, down 2.2% month - on - month; the purchasing manager index for the steel distribution industry was 49.8, up 4.2% month - on - month [23][25] Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, up 0.29% month - on - month and 3.54% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, down 0.15% month - on - month and up 3.07% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4%, up 3.03% month - on - month and 63.21% year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 240.32 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and up 8.62 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of August 7, rebar production was 221.18 million tons, up 4.79%; rebar inventory at mills was 168.2 million tons, up 3.73%; rebar inventory at social warehouses was 388.48 million tons, up 1.13%; rebar apparent demand was 210.79 million tons, up 3.63%. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13712.27 million tons, up 54.37 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 321.85 million tons, up 19.14 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 105, up 15 [33] 后市展望 - Recently, the sentiment in the black market has returned to rationality, and steel prices are mainly stable and fluctuating [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips and oscillations [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend [5][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, ranging from around 20,405 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,825 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures oscillated, with the contract price ranging from 2,551 - 2,639 US dollars/ton [13] 3.2现货分析 - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,600 yuan/ton, 20,880 yuan/ton, 20,640 yuan/ton, and 20,590 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of August 8, 2025, the premium/discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a discount of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3.3供需情况 - In July 2025, the total production capacity of alumina was 113 million tons, the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.75% [22] - As of August 7, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 31,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 tons, in Bayuquan was 16,000 tons, and in Qingdao Port was 15,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22] 3.4库存情况 - As of August 8, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,614 tons, a decrease of 3,913 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 470,575 tons, an increase of 1,075 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 3.03% [27] - As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 506,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous day [27] 3.5宏观面、基本面分析 - In July, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%. The production index and new order index in the manufacturing PMI were 50.5% and 49.4% respectively, both lower than the previous month. Manufacturing production activities continued to expand, but market demand slowed down. Industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and computer and communication electronic equipment had active production and demand [4][36] - The operating rate of alumina plants continued to rise, the in - production capacity of alumina gradually increased, and the alumina inventory remained at a low level. The output of aluminum products increased year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased rapidly for several consecutive months. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased slightly, the LME aluminum inventory continued to rise, and the domestic implicit market inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly [4][36]

研究报告 橡胶周报 市场回归基本面，胶价或震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 11 日星期一 展望后市，在前期的宏观影响减弱之后，橡胶走势逐步回 归基本面。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期东南亚主产区天气 好转，国内产区也降雨减少，新胶持续放量，供给端存在一定 压力。7 月进口同比增加。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均有 微幅下降，半钢轮胎成品库存远高于去年同期，处于历史高位； 全轮胎企业成品去库速度放缓，同比略有提升。终端车市方面， 6 月汽车产销量有所回暖，7 月重卡销量环比小幅下降，同比大 幅上涨；1-7 月，重卡市场累计销量同比增长约 11%。上半年中 国轮胎出口同比小幅增长。库存方面，上周上期所库存持续下 降；上周中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存均小幅回落。 综上所述，近期宏观影响减弱，橡胶走势逐步回归基本面。 虽然近期终端需求有所转好，但是国内外主产地天气都有好转， 原料价格下跌 ...