Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Although the overall supply is relatively abundant and demand changes are limited, the methanol futures market may operate strongly due to expected supply reduction and downstream stocking expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - **Futures**: Last week, influenced by improved expectations, methanol futures showed a strong oscillation. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,160 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous week [5][11]. - **Spot**: Last week, the port methanol price was still strong, while the inland methanol price was weak, showing a regional differentiation trend. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,120 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,090 - 2,130 yuan/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, domestic methanol production continued to rise as more plants resumed production than were under maintenance. The supply - side support remained weak [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream olefin operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall downstream demand was stable but weak. The demand in the inland area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises rose, and the volume of pending orders decreased. The port methanol inventory increased significantly, with a large increase in Jiangsu [7][19][21]. - **Profit**: Last week, coal prices stopped falling, while methanol prices were still weak, and the profits of coal - to - methanol enterprises deteriorated again [7][24]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Around New Year's Day, methanol supply will remain relatively abundant. In the future, domestic and foreign methanol maintenance may increase, imports may decline, and the supply is expected to decrease [8]. - **Demand**: The change in demand is limited. Downstream enterprises have stocking expectations, and macro - policies may be introduced [8]. - **Market Trend**: The spot market may be narrowly sorted, while the futures market may operate strongly [8]. 3.4 Operation Strategy Considering the positive expectations, methanol futures may operate strongly, and investors can consider selling put options [9].

研究报告 铜周报 近期沪铜连续刷新历史新高 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期：2025 | 12 | 月 | 29 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 美联储在今年最后一次议息会议后发布的利率路径点阵图显 示，2026 年仅有 1 次降息，幅度在 25 个基点。但是分析师普遍 认为美联储 2026 年或降息 2-3 次。高盛、摩根士丹利、美国银行、 富国银行、野村、巴克莱等机构预计，2026 年美联储降息 2 次， 政策利率将降至 3.00%-3.25%。其中，野村表示，明年 ...

研究报告 政策托底支撑显效，盘面供需博弈加剧 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周玉米期货盘面价格先稳后扬，周五盘面显著走强，截至 上周五夜盘收盘，玉米期货主力合约 C2603 收报 2230 元/吨，涨 1%；上周 CBOT 玉米期货主力合约盘面震荡走强，截至上周收盘报 449.50 美分/蒲式耳，跌 0.33%。 【基本面分析】 全国玉米周均价为 2300 元/吨，环比跌 10 元/吨，周末价格 重心继续上移。上周东北产区玉米价格较为平稳，截至上周五， 哈尔滨二等玉米价格为 2100 元/吨，长春二等玉米价格为 2210 元 /吨，均较前周持平；华北产区玉米价格稳定运行，截至上周五， 山东潍坊寿光金玉米收购价格 2290 元/吨，较前周持平；销区及 港口玉米价格先稳后扬，截至上 ...

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱："供需宽松"格局未改 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2605 价格在1157-1207 元/吨之间运行， 价格有所回暖。 截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2605 上涨 24 元/吨，周度涨 2.04%，报收 1200 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 供给方面产量、产能利用率有所回落，截止 2025 年 12 月 25 日，当本周国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比下降 0.96 万吨，跌幅 1.32%。纯碱综合产能利用率 81.65%，前周 82.74%，环比下降 1.09%。 综合来看，市场整体供需宽松的格局并未发生根本性扭转。 期货盘面情绪受宏观及商品市场整体氛围影响较大。现货市场交 投气氛平淡 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 0.77%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.32%，环比减少 0.15%，同比减少 0.39%；钢厂盈利率 37.23%，环比增加 1.30%，同比减少 12.55%；日均铁水产量 226.58 万吨，环比增加 0.03 万吨，同比减少 1.29 万吨。全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 15858.66 万吨，环比增加 346.03 万吨；日均疏港量 315.06 万吨，增 1.61 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 后市展望：近期全球铁矿石发运量环比回落，仍处于近三年同期高位 水平。钢厂铁矿库存同比偏低，部分钢厂的补库需求对铁矿现货价格短期 有所支撑，总体预计中期铁矿以偏弱震荡为 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观偏暖供需承压，或将维持区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2605 价格在 15130-15890 元/吨 之间运行，走势震荡上行，总体大幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约报收 15780 元/吨，当周上涨 590 点，涨幅 3.88%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约走势震荡上行，大幅上涨。 展望后市，宏观市场情绪偏暖，工业品指数反弹支撑胶价。 从基本面来看，供给方面，东南亚主产区天供给上量预期增加； 国内产区陆续停割，但是国内产区产量下降难以对冲海外产区 供应增量，因此橡胶供应存在宽松预期。泰柬双方停火，地缘 影响对胶价支撑减弱。需求方面，上周上周半钢胎企业开工率 环比微幅上升，全钢胎企业开工率环比小幅下降。目前成品库 存继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak, and the main contract was switched to 2602. As of last Friday's close, the main egg JD2602 contract was reported at 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.03%; the egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.26% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.11 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.97% [7][18]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in the country was 2.71 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the old hen price increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.49% [26]. 3.2基本面分析 - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month. As of the end of November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in December will still decline slightly [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased month - on - month. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6,357.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.08% [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 661,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08%; the average slaughter age was 488 days, with a maximum of 500 days and a minimum of 475 days [40]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales in the representative markets in the sales areas were 6,432.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: Last week, the arrival in the Beijing market was 81 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 11 trucks; the arrival in the Guangdong market was 513 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 7 trucks [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the old hen slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. The old hen slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 1.9585 million, a decrease of 124,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.95 days, the same as the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous Friday [57]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 6.25%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan per ton; the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,122 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 39 yuan per ton [61]. - **Related Products Situation** - **White - Feathered Broiler**: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.39 yuan per chick, up 0.06 yuan per chick from the previous week; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.63 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [65]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: The national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.89 yuan per catty, up 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [70]. 3.3后市展望 - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3.4操作策略 - **Single - Side**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously pay attention to the old hen elimination rhythm. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: None [9][72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental improvement of methanol is limited, and the rebound space may be relatively limited [1][7][30] - It is recommended to wait and see temporarily due to the lack of substantial improvement in methanol supply and demand [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures rebounded following the strong port methanol prices. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price reached 2,145 yuan/ton, a 2.68% increase from the previous week [5][10] - Port methanol prices were strong due to slow unloading, inventory reduction, and reduced Iranian loading speed, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2,070 - 2,190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,050 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak due to seasonal freight increases and high downstream raw material inventories. The price range in Ordos North Line was 1,950 - 1,973 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was 2,225 - 2,230 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week (2025.12.12 - 12.18), China's methanol production was 2,055,975 tons, an increase of 18,370 tons from the previous week, with a device capacity utilization rate of 90.52%, a 0.90% increase [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: MTO industry's weekly average start - up decreased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; dimethyl ether's capacity utilization rate was 7.09%, a 21.05% decrease; acetic acid's overall capacity utilization rate increased; methane chloride's capacity utilization rate increased; formaldehyde's capacity utilization rate decreased [15][16] - **Inventory**: As of December 17, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 22.04 million tons, a 6.25% increase. The port sample inventory decreased to 1.2188 billion tons, a 1.26% decrease [18][21] - **Profit**: Last week, coal prices continued to decline, while coke oven gas and natural gas prices were stable. Coal - to - methanol profits improved, coke oven gas - to - methanol profits weakened, and natural gas - to - methanol profits were stable. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase [24] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls, with an expected production of about 2.0667 billion tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 91.00%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The overall start - up of the MTO industry is expected to rise slightly; the supply of dimethyl ether is expected to be stable; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the overall capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to decline slightly [28][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 39.53 million tons, showing a slight increase. The port methanol is expected to accumulate inventory [29]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts. [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2602 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 21,600 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 22,200 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. From January to November, it increased by 6.0% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 30 had year - on - year growth in added value in November. The US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI also significantly missed expectations, rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. [4][10][11] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In November 2025, there was an alumina supply surplus of 590,000 tons. As of November 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. As of December 11, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period. [13] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 19, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,510 tons, an increase of 515 tons from the previous week. As of December 18, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, with the cancelled warrant ratio at 14.2%. As of December 18, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 510,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous day. [21]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱："短供减量"与"长线扩产"的博弈 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2605 价格在1123-1203 元/吨之间运行， 价格重心下移。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2605 上涨 50 元/吨，周度涨 4.44%，报收 1176 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率有所回落，截止 2025 年 12 月 18 日，当周国内纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比下降1.4万吨，跌幅1.91%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 82.74%，前周 84.35%，环比下降 1.61%。 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 库存情况延续回落，截止 2025 年 12 月 18 日，当周国内纯碱 厂家总库存 149.93 万吨，较周一下降 3.3 ...