1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In March 2026, the polyethylene market was affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, sharp rise in crude oil prices, plant maintenance, and downstream demand recovery, leading to a significant price increase. In April, the polyethylene market may continue to rise due to supply reduction, cost support, and demand increase [5][6][41]. - In March 2026, the polypropylene market showed a roller - coaster - like sharp rise and fall, dominated by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. In April, it is expected to show a narrow upward movement first and then return to a rational price, with an overall market trend of oscillation, rising first and then falling [5][6][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - aspect 3.1.1 China - In February 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 9%, the same as the previous month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In February 2026, the year - on - year increase in the national consumer price was 1.3%, and the month - on - month increase was 1%. The year - on - year decrease in the national industrial producer price was 0.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4% [8]. - From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 96.12 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points compared to the whole of the previous year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%, with the decline widening by 4.8 percentage points compared to the whole of the previous year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 81.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points [10]. - From January to February 2026, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 130.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. Among them, domestic loans were 25.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.9%; self - raised funds were 49.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.9%; deposits and advance receipts were 35.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.5%; and personal mortgage loans were 11.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.9% [13]. - Current domestic macro - economic data shows that liquidity remains loose, and the demand side has improved. The real estate data is inconsistent. The growth rate of funds in place for real estate development enterprises continues to decline significantly, while the year - on - year decline in national real estate development investment has narrowed significantly [15]. 3.1.2 International - In February 2026, the US CPI remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.4%. The US - Iran conflict caused a sharp increase in oil prices, which has not yet been reflected in the data [16]. - In February 2026, the US manufacturing PMI decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 52.4%, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 4.4% [19]. - Currently, the decline in US inflation and high unemployment are favorable for interest rate cuts, but the sharp increase in oil prices due to the US - Iran conflict has led to an increase in inflation expectations, hindering the Fed's interest rate cuts. The Fed is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market expects an increased possibility of interest rate cuts this year [21]. - Geopolitical conflicts still significantly boost oil prices, providing obvious cost support for polyolefins [23]. 3.2 Fundamental - aspect 3.2.1 PE - In March 2026, polyethylene production increased by 298,000 tons to 2.9357 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.66%, a decrease of 6.94%. The increase in production was mainly due to an additional production day [24]. - In March 2026, the overall downstream industry's polyethylene operating rate was 34.95%, a 13.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The average monthly operating rate of the PE packaging film industry increased by 18.07% month - on - month, and the overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 11.9% month - on - month [27]. - At the end of March 2026, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene decreased. The inventory was 446,200 tons, a decrease of 58,300 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 184,100 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.2.2 PP - In March 2026, China's total polypropylene production was 3.212 million tons (the production from the 28th to the 31st was estimated data), a month - on - month increase of 3.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33%. There was no new production capacity put into operation during the month, and the supply side of polypropylene had no pressure from new production [32]. - In March 2026, the apparent consumption of polypropylene decreased month - on - month. The estimated domestic apparent consumption of polypropylene in March was 2.992 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.97%. The average downstream operating rate of polypropylene was 46.16%, a month - on - month increase of 7.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.02% [35]. - At the end of March 2026, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 493,700 tons, a 32.46% decrease from the end of the previous month. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 177,800 tons, a 28.79% decrease from the end of the previous month [38]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 PE - In April 2026, the domestic capacity utilization rate of polyethylene is expected to decrease by 7.37% month - on - month. Due to the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz, the import volume in April may decrease by 22.16% month - on - month, and the total supply is expected to decrease by 14.29% month - on - month. The demand side shows a positive trend, with the downstream operating rate expected to increase by 4.49%. Although the demand for agricultural films will decline by 2.99% as the peak season comes to an end, the operating rate of packaging films is expected to increase by 5%, and the export volume is also expected to increase by 8.64% month - on - month. The cost of polyethylene will still be strongly supported by the relatively high - level crude oil prices. Overall, the price of the polyethylene market may rise in April [41]. 3.3.2 PP - In April 2026, the polypropylene market is expected to show a narrow upward movement first and then return to a rational price. Geopolitical risks have slowed down but not completely subsided, and there are still concerns about energy supply. The oil - based production cost is expected to loosen at a high level, but the PDH - based production cost is strongly supported by the high price of imported propane. The downstream demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the high - priced raw materials make it difficult for downstream enterprises to transfer costs, which restricts the overall downstream operating process. In April, more enterprises will stop production for maintenance or reduce production loads, and the supply side of the market will show a more obvious reduction. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate, rising first and then falling [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In March 2026, the domestic stock index futures market weakened overall, with all major futures contracts closing down. Small and medium - cap related index futures declined more significantly than large - cap blue - chip varieties. The market sentiment remained weak throughout the month, and the index futures were under pressure [4]. - The full - bond futures showed a differentiated trend last month. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures declined, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures showed slight increases [5]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose above the critical point, indicating an improvement in the overall business climate [8][11][15]. - The overall market valuation is at a relatively high level, and the valuation pressure of small and medium - cap varieties is more prominent. The high valuation restricts the upward space of the market, and if the performance fails to meet expectations, there will be greater valuation adjustment pressure [33][34]. - The trend of index futures deviates from the repair of the domestic economic fundamentals. The core suppression factors are the high overall valuation and the overseas geopolitical conflicts, which lead to a decline in market risk preference. The size - style differentiation is significant, with small and medium - cap varieties adjusting more than large - cap blue - chip varieties [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: In March, the domestic stock index futures market weakened. The CSI 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,375.8 with a monthly decline of 7.17% (-338.0); the SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,804.0 with a monthly decline of 7.93% (-241.4); the CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 7,425.0 with a monthly decline of 14.12% (-1220.4); the CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,379.4 with a monthly decline of 13.50% (-1152.0) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 111.690 with a monthly decline of 0.38% (-0.43); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 108.400 with a monthly increase of 0.01% (0.010); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 106.025 with a monthly increase of 0.11% (0.120); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.538 with a monthly increase of 0.09% (0.090) [5]. 3.2 Valuation Analysis - As of March 31, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 13.96 times, the quantile was 77.69%, and the PB was 1.44 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.30 times, the quantile was 75.34%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 35.15 times, the quantile was 86.69%, and the PB was 2.42 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.94 times, the quantile was 75.54%, and the PB was 2.55 times [18]. 3.3 Other Data - **Stock - Bond Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond spread. One is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [26]. - **China - Buffett Indicator**: The reasonable valuation range of A - shares is about 70% - 100%. As of March 30, 2026, the "total market value/GDP" was 88.43%, the quantile in historical data was 87.55%, and the quantile in the last 10 - year data was 91.34% [29][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Policy**: The policy maintains a loose tone. The market liquidity environment is stable and loose, and the policy emphasizes the implementation of active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [32]. - **Domestic Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed work and production, and the market activity increased. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing business climate improved, and the comprehensive economic climate returned to the expansion range [32]. - **Overseas Situation**: Geopolitical conflicts continued to ferment, leading to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment, rising commodity prices, and increased production costs for domestic enterprises, which may affect the global supply chain and inflation expectations and disturb the policy rhythm [32]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - **Single - Side Trading**: Be cautious and participate in bottom - fishing. Large - cap blue - chip index futures have a relatively higher safety margin. Pay attention to the layout opportunities after the shock correction. For small and medium - cap varieties, do not blindly chase the high and strictly control the position to prevent volatility risks [35]. - **Arbitrage**: Participate in the spread convergence strategy of going long on IH and short on IM/IC. Pay close attention to the progress of geopolitical conflicts and market style switching signals. If the risk - aversion sentiment continues to rise, the defensive attribute of the large - cap style will be dominant in the short term, and set stop - losses strictly [35]. - **Options**: In the context of expected market volatility, use the covered call strategy to increase the holding income. To prevent the downside risks caused by valuation decline and geopolitical conflicts, consider buying out - of - the - money put options for hedging [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pig futures market has no signal of stabilization and is likely to continue weak oscillation at a low level. In the medium - to - long - term, due to high feed costs and continuous deep losses in the industry, inefficient production capacity will be cleared out faster. With the arrival of the seasonal consumption peak in autumn and winter, the supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually improve, and the pig market may recover in the fourth quarter [7][76][77] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Price Review - **Futures price**: Since March, the pig futures market has been under heavy pressure. The main contract price has dropped sharply, hitting new lows since listing. As of March 31, the LH2605 contract was reported at 9,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 14.93% [5][13] - **Spot price**: After the Spring Festival in 2026, the national pig price continued to decline. By March 31, the national average pig出栏 price dropped to 9.43 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.36 yuan/kg. The prices of piglets and culled sows also declined, and the industry's replenishment willingness was weak [6][16][19] - **Price difference**: The basis of live pigs turned negative, and the standard - fat price difference continued to narrow. As of March 31, the live pig basis was - 250 yuan/ton, and the standard - fat price difference was - 0.59 yuan/kg [26][30] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **Sow inventory**: As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the national sow inventory was 39.61 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83%. In March, the policy adjusted the sow inventory target to 36.5 million, a reduction of 3.11 million from the end of 2025 [34] - **Pig inventory**: As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. It is expected that the pig inventory in the first quarter will decline month - on - month [39] - **Pig出栏**: In February, the overall出栏 of the breeding end did not meet expectations. In March, the supply pressure increased due to the concentrated release of pig sources [47] - **Average出栏 weight**: In March, the average出栏 weight of commercial pigs rebounded rapidly. As of the week of March 27, it reached 123.32 kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [51] - **Production efficiency**: The production efficiency of the pig breeding industry has been continuously improving, with the average PSY reaching about 26 and the fattening survival rate remaining above 90%, which offsets the marginal contraction of production capacity caused by the reduction of sow inventory [55] 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Slaughter enterprise operating rate**: Affected by the continuous decline of pig prices and concentrated出栏, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises rebounded to 33.95% in March, higher than the same period in 2024 and 2025 [60] - **Frozen product storage rate and fresh sales rate**: After the Spring Festival, the fresh sales rate of slaughter enterprises decreased to 78.55%, and the frozen product storage rate increased to 21.52% [65] 3.2.3. Cost - profit Situation - **Breeding profit**: Since March, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening has been in deep losses. As of March 30, the loss per head was 330.82 yuan and 221.06 yuan respectively [68] - **Pig - grain ratio**: In March, the pig - grain ratio dropped below 5:1, reaching a new low of 4.14, forcing the industry to optimize the production capacity structure [72] 3.2.4. Reserve Purchase Situation - The market's expectation of reserve purchase has increased, but the probability of large - scale national reserve purchase in the short term is low. Some provinces have launched regional reserve purchases, but the impact on the overall supply - demand pattern is limited [75] 3.3. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - **Market outlook**: In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate weakly at a low level. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is expected to improve in the fourth quarter [76][77] - **Operation strategies**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the pace of production capacity reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, opportunities for cyclical reversal can be selectively deployed. There are no strategies for arbitrage and options [8][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core View of the Report - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The report mentions the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures, but no specific price analysis data is provided [8][9] - **Spot Price**: As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The report mentions the rebar basis (active contract), but no specific analysis data is provided [16][17] Important Market Information - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its first - quarter meeting on March 26, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions [18] Supply - side Situation - The report mentions the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and rebar production, but no specific analysis data is provided [19][23] Demand - side Situation - As of March 2026, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the current value of the Lange Iron and Steel: Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 53.4, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% [28] Fundamental Analysis - In March 2026, the PMI of the steel industry was 50.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after running below 50% for 7 consecutive months. It is expected that in April, the steel industry will maintain a stable and positive operation, with market demand recovering and steel mill production increasing steadily. Raw material and steel prices still have room to rise [35] - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron output was 13,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel output was 16,034 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; steel output was 22,119 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6][36] - In February 2026, China exported 783,800 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with an export average price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel exports were 1,559,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, with an export average price of 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36,900 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, with an import average price of 1,740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel imports were 82,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, with an import average price of 1,769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [36] - In February 2026, global crude steel output was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; from January to February 2026, global crude steel output was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [6][36] - In mid - March, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.91 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, a growth of 0.6%; a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons, a growth of 5.9% [6][37] 后市展望 - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] Operation Strategy - Single - side: Short - term long positions on dips within the range - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [7][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month. The fundamental factors of natural rubber present a situation of both support and pressure. The macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, but the upward trend of synthetic rubber restricts the downward space of natural rubber prices [8][90][91] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - In March 2026, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber fluctuated in the range of 15,885 - 17,600 yuan/ton, with a high - level oscillation. It dropped significantly after two surges at the beginning of the month and rebounded in the late month, with a large overall decline in the month. As of March 31, 2026, it closed at 16,345 yuan/ton, down 810 points or 4.72% for the month [6][13] 现货 Price - As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,300 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous month. As of March 30, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,560 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous month [17][20] Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with the previous month. As of March 31, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 190 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than the previous month [24] Domestic and Foreign Prices of Natural Rubber - As of March 31, the domestic price of natural rubber dropped significantly compared with the previous month, while the foreign price rose slightly [28] Important Market Information - The US and Iran are in talks to end the military operation in Iran, but there are differences in positions between the two sides. Iran plans to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the continued jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US PPI in February rose 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in February rose as expected. The global economic growth rate is expected to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. China's economic data shows that the CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, the PPI decreased 0.9% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased 15.2% year - on - year. The auto sales in February decreased, but the auto export increased [32][33][34][35][36][37][38] Supply - side Situation - As of January 31, 2026, the production in the main producing areas of Thailand and Malaysia increased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia, India, and Vietnam decreased slightly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period with zero production. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in January 2026 was 990,500 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons or 1.71% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. As of February 28, 2026, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 7,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [42][47][51] Demand - side Situation - As of March 26, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.24%, down 0.01% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 70.75%, up 0.03% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, China's monthly auto production was 1.6724 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.73%. The monthly auto sales were 1.8052 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 23.07%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 73,553 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.18%. As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 106.263 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. As of February 28, 2026, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 56.07 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4%. The auto sales in major global countries in February 2026 showed different trends [56][59][64][67][71][74][78] Inventory - side Situation - As of March 31, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,410 tons, an increase of 10,940 tons from the previous month. As of March 22, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 685,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons or 1.18% from the previous period [82][87] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic rubber - tapping is gradually starting smoothly. The raw material supply is generally tight, and the purchase price continues to rise, which supports the rubber price. Demand: In March, with the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, the market trading atmosphere gradually recovered, and the operating rate has remained at a high level recently. However, the terminal auto market is not performing well. Inventory: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last month, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased slightly week - on - week, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week [88][89] 后市 Outlook - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures oscillated at a high level in March 2026, with a large overall decline in the month. In the future, the macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, and the supply pressure has been alleviated, with cost support for the rubber price. The demand will form a certain support, but the terminal consumption is average, and the continuous inventory accumulation in Qingdao exerts pressure on the price. It is expected that the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month [90][91] Views and Operation Strategies - This month's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, consider a range - bound operation; for arbitrage and options, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [92]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March 2026, the price of the glass futures main contract fluctuated between 1017 - 1163 yuan/ton, closing at 1019 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 43 yuan/ton or -4.05% [5]. - The average price of the domestic float glass market increased in March, mainly supported by the restocking demand after the Spring Festival. However, in the second half of the month, the procurement pace slowed down, and the market trends in different regions diverged [7][9]. - In April, the decline in supply may narrow as previously ignited production lines will start producing glass. Demand will enter the digestion stage, with insufficient purchasing power from the mid - and downstream after restocking. Coupled with high social inventory, supply - demand pressure will increase. The rising energy prices at the cost end provide bottom support, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, with resistance to upward movement and limited downward space [8][43]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price Trend - In March, the average price of the domestic float glass market increased, and manufacturers focused on destocking. By the end of the month, the procurement pace slowed down, and regional market trends diverged. Six production lines shut down in March, and one more was expected to shut down by the end of the month. The overall supply decreased significantly. The national average price of the float glass market was 1153 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton or 3.78% [9]. - The price changes in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the average price was 1063 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.35% [10]. Cost - Profit Analysis - In March, the average profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was - 31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke was - 15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 59 yuan/ton; and that using natural gas was - 95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 61 yuan/ton. The profit trends of float glass with different fuels diverged [15]. Supply - Side Situation - In March, the monthly total output of float glass increased compared with the previous month, but the daily output and capacity utilization rate declined. The estimated output for the month was 4.5342 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77%; the daily output was 146,300 tons, a decrease of 2,610 tons or 1.75% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 73.43%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from the previous period. Six production lines shut down in March, one more was expected to shut down by the end of the month, and three production lines were ignited, with the daily output continuing to decline [19]. Demand - Side Situation - In March, the total consumption of float glass increased month - on - month. The domestic theoretical consumption was 460,860 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.16% [27]. Inventory - Side Situation - In March, the inventory of sample float glass enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 73.622 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.3861 million weight boxes (3.14%) from the end of the previous month, but an increase of 6.6098 million weight boxes (9.86%) year - on - year [29]. Import - Export Data - In February 2026, China imported 10,800 tons of float glass, a decrease of 1,700 tons or 13.66% from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 23,400 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons or 8.21% compared with the same period last year [36]. - In February 2026, China exported 78,200 tons of float glass, a decrease of 13,700 tons or 14.91% from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to February 2026 was 170,200 tons, an increase of 50,300 tons or 41.91% compared with the same period last year [39]. Market Outlook - In March, the domestic float glass market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing. The national average price increased month - on - month, but regional trends diverged, and the trading volume weakened at the end of the month. The core contradiction in the market lies in the game between the release of post - festival phased restocking demand, continuous supply contraction, and medium - to - high inventory pressure [41]. - In April, the decline in supply may narrow, and demand will enter the digestion stage. The market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, with resistance to upward movement and limited downward space. The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see or conduct range operations for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and consider covered call writing to increase returns or buying put options to prevent price correction risks [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut process may be postponed, and copper prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][34][36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In March, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures decreased significantly, with the price range between 91,500 yuan/ton and 104,870 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Fed Rate - cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignores" the impact of energy shocks. His speech eased market concerns about Fed rate hikes, and traders began to bet on a possible rate cut this year. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike in April is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.4%. By June, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 92.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike is 2.5% [10][34] 2.2 China's PMI Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and new order index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were below the critical point [13][15] 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Copper Smelter Processing Fees - As of March 30, 2026, China's copper smelter refining fee was - 7 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 69.2 dollars/kiloton. The copper processing fee has been at a low level. As of January 2026, the ICSG's global copper concentrate production was 1,919 thousand tons, the capacity was 2,498 thousand tons, and the utilization rate was 76.8% [19] 3.2 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread - As of March 31, 2026, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 95,580 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 85,600 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1,420 yuan/ton. From a seasonal perspective, the current spread is at an average level compared to the past five years [24] 4. Inventory - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 359,135 tons, a decrease of 51,986 tons from the previous week. The LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons, an increase of 425 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 18.81%. As of March 30, 2026, the COMEX copper inventory was 588,121 tons, a decrease of 798 tons from the previous trading day. The Shanghai bonded area inventory was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week [27] 5. Outlook 5.1 Price Trend Factor Analysis - The impact factors of copper price include US policy (★★★, Fed rate - cut may be postponed), China's policy (★★, some economic data in China are rising), supply (★★★, refined copper processing fees are at a very low level; ★★, scrap - to - refined copper price spread returns to normal), and inventory (★★, COMEX copper continues to accumulate significantly; ★★, Shanghai copper inventory decreases) [33] 5.2 Forecast - Overall, copper prices are likely to show a high - level volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [34][35][36]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main factor boosting methanol is the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the focus on the navigation issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem is not substantially resolved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted. Methanol is expected to continue its strong performance in the short - term, and long - position operations on methanol futures and buying methanol call options are recommended [8][9] - Driven by the rising methanol price, the domestic supply and demand of methanol both increase. The continuous geopolitical tension and the significant reduction in methanol imports will continue to be the most important factors boosting methanol in the future [7][29] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the US - Iran geopolitical conflict was the main factor boosting methanol. The methanol futures continued to rise, with the methanol weighted closing at 3,192 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 4.55% increase from the previous week. In the spot market, the import apparent demand declined, and the port methanol inventory continued to fall. The port and inland methanol market prices both rose [5][12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,071,615 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 92.73%, a 0.86% increase from the previous week [14] - **Downstream Demand**: The domestic MTO industry's operating rate increased, and the load of inland and port enterprises was adjusted to different degrees. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.12%, with an overall increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate decreased [17] - **Inventory**: As of March 25, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 435,000 tons, a decrease of 50,400 tons from the previous period, a 10.39% decrease. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 283,900 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.64% increase. The port sample inventory was 1,155,500 tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons from the previous period, an 8.42% decrease [18][22] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material price increase was slower than the increase in the downstream methanol price, so the methanol production enterprise profit continued to recover. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 241.80 yuan/ton, a 91.45% increase; in Shandong, it was 384.63 yuan/ton, a 62.09% increase; in Shanxi, it was 360.13 yuan/ton, a 79.26% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 663.00 yuan/ton, a 50.00% increase; the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest was 388.00 yuan/ton, a 165.75% increase [23] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Next week, the number of domestic methanol device restarts may be more than that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0904 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 93.57%, with an increase in production [26] - **Downstream Demand**: The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise to over 90%. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [27][28][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 423,000 tons, continuing to decline. The port methanol inventory is also expected to continue to decline [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to continue in a volatile trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2605 of Shanghai copper futures showed a volatile trend, ranging from around 91,500 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 96,590 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The profits of major industries showed different trends, with significant growth in computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing (2.0 times), non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing (1.5 times), etc., while some industries such as the automotive manufacturing industry declined by 30.2% [12][13] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of March 26, 2026, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 69.2 US dollars per thousand tons, and the refining fee was - 7 cents per pound. As of March 27, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaomao was 95,500 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 85,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 1,505 yuan/ton, which was at the average level compared with the past five years [16][20] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of March 27, 2026, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 359,135 tons, a decrease of 51,986 tons from the previous week. As of March 25, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 360,175 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 17.4%. As of March 26, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 63,400 tons, with a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous week; the inventory in Guangdong was 61,400 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 74,300 tons [24] 3.5 Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed's interest - rate cut process may be further postponed. The shortage of copper ore still exists. The processing fees of Chinese copper smelters continue to decline rapidly and are at an extremely low level. The refined - scrap copper price difference has decreased and is in a reasonable range. The investment in power grid infrastructure has changed from an increase to a decrease, and the copper product output has decreased slightly year - on - year. The Shanghai copper inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The LME copper inventory has increased rapidly, and the inventory level is at the highest level in recent years [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic vegetable oil sector showed high - level volatile movements this week. Market sentiment was dominated by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the sharp fluctuations in international crude oil prices. In the long - term, palm oil has entered a seasonal production - increasing cycle, and its export faces a risk of weakening. For soybean oil, the supply pressure remains, but demand in the biodiesel field is boosted. For rapeseed oil, the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, but the current import crushing profit situation may affect future supply [72]. - The recommended operation strategy is to be cautious and wait - and - see, focusing on the implementation progress of the US biofuel policy, the USDA planting intention report, and the quarterly inventory report, and avoiding blind chasing of highs or bottom - fishing [73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The domestic vegetable oil sector showed high - level volatile movements, with slight differentiation in the trends of different varieties. As of March 27, the closing prices of the soybean oil Y2605 contract, palm oil P2605 contract, and rapeseed oil OI2605 contract were 8,688 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.7%), 9,768 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.51%), and 9,877 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.01%) respectively [12]. - The Malaysian palm oil market also showed high - level volatile movements, with a cumulative increase of nearly 14.2% since March. As of March 27, the BMD crude palm oil futures main contract closed up 0.83% at 4,612 ringgit/ton [15]. - The CBOT soybeans and soybean oil showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. As of March 27 (US - China time), the CBOT soybeans May contract was at 1,159.5 cents/bushel (down 1.21%), and the CBOT soybean oil May contract was at 67.22 cents/pound (down 1.18%) [20]. 3.2 Fundamental Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada from March 1, 2026, for a period of 5 years, and suspended the additional discriminatory tariffs on some imported goods from Canada from March 1 to December 31, 2026, canceling the 100% anti - discriminatory tariff on imported Canadian rapeseed meal [6][20]. - Malaysia's February palm oil production was 1,284,699 tons (a 18.55% month - on - month decrease), exports were 1,127,605 tons (a 22.48% month - on - month decrease), imports were 76,276 tons (a 136.03% month - on - month increase), and inventory was 2,704,286 tons (a 3.94% month - on - month decrease) [6][21]. - From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to have decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [6][21]. - The average expected soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 85.549 million acres, and the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is expected to be 2.063 billion bushels, an 8% increase year - on - year [7][21]. - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25, 2026, increased by 38.4% - 51% compared with the same period last month according to different survey agencies [7][8][22]. - Brazil's estimated soybean export volume in March is 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 16.32 million tons [8][24]. 3.3 Domestic Oil Basis Changes - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in the mainstream coastal markets showed low - level volatile recovery. As of March 27, the basis quotes in different regions varied [30]. - The basis of coastal soybean oil strengthened synchronously, and the regional differences converged. As of March 27, the basis quotes in different regions were provided [30]. - The basis of coastal rapeseed oil was basically stable. As of March 27, there was a regional differentiation with the East being stronger and the South being weaker [30]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - Demand - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, exports declined, and inventory decreased but was still at a relatively high level. The profit of palm - based biodiesel was repaired, but the edible demand was under pressure, and the export outlook was not optimistic [34][38]. - From March 20 - 26, 4 new palm oil purchase ships were added in China, with different delivery schedules [39]. - As of March 20, 2026, the national key - area commercial palm oil inventory was 808,200 tons, a 4.01% month - on - month decrease and a 108.14% year - on - year increase [41]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - Demand - The USDA's March supply - demand report slightly revised the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand data. The global soybean supply pattern remained loose, and the domestic medium - and long - term soybean supply was also abundant [45]. - Near - term soybean meal fluctuations were affected by customs clearance and arrival issues, but the long - term supply was expected to be loose. After April, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans would arrive in China [49]. - As of the week of March 20, the actual soybean oil production was 378,200 tons, and the operating rate was 54.81%, a 1.07% month - on - month increase [51]. - As of March 20, the national commercial soybean oil inventory was 1.0537 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease and a 3.94% year - on - year increase [54]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated arrival volume of imported rapeseed in coastal areas was increasing from March to May [58]. - As of the week of March 20, the rapeseed crushing volume and rapeseed oil production decreased. With the arrival of rapeseed purchase ships, production was expected to recover [60][62]. - As of March 26, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed was slightly profitable in the spot market but inverted in the futures market. If the situation continued, it might affect future supply [65]. - As of March 20, the national imported rapeseed inventory was at a historical low and decreasing rapidly, while the rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts increased, indicating strong downstream demand [70].