研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面未有明显改善，后续仍关注宏观 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 春节前一周，受商品整体回落拖累，甲醇期货回落调整，至 周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2193 元/吨，较前一周下跌 2.45%。 【基本面】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 春节前一周，国内甲醇产量小幅回落，但开工率仍在高位运 行，供给端仍呈现压力为主。甲醇下游烯烃开工率小幅回升，但 需求端仍然偏弱。库存方面，春节前一周甲醇样本企业库存下降， 企业待发订单量上升，反映甲醇刚需仍在，并且甲醇企业积极降 库。港口甲醇库存小幅上升，并仍在高位运行。利润方面，甲醇 成本端波动不大；而甲醇内地价格则因节前排库/预售节奏较好而 环比有所抬升，故多数工艺路线制甲醇利理论利润有所修复。综 合来看，甲醇供需宽松的局面没有实质性改善。甲醇基 ...

研究报告 股指周报 股指期货春节前市场回顾与后市展望 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | 【债券】 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 2 月 13 日 A 股春节前最后一个交易日，三大指数集体回调。 截止收盘，沪指跌 1.26%，收报 4082.07 点；深证成指跌 1.28%， 收报 14100.19 点；创业板指跌 1.57%，收报 3275.96 点。 行 业板块涨少跌多，船舶制造与航天航空板块逆市走强，光伏设备、 小金属、玻璃玻纤、航运港口、钢铁行业、采掘行业、贵金属、 能源金属板块跌幅居前。沪深京三市成交额仅有 19991 亿，较前 一交易日缩量 1619 亿。 上周，国债期货近降远升。具体如下： | | 主力合约名称 | 上周涨跌幅(%) | 上周收盘价(元) | | - ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Soda Ash: Supply Pressure Remains High, Short - term Reversal Unlikely" and is from Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - The research analyst is Hou Fan, and the report date is February 24, 2026 [5][7] Group 2: Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the price of the main soda ash futures contract ranged from 1,148 to 1,196 yuan/ton. As of February 13, 2026, the main contract dropped 40 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.36%, closing at 1,150 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of February 12, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash output was 792,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons or 2.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 85.18%, up 1.93% month - on - month [6][9] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.588 million tons, a 0.61% increase. Light soda ash inventory was 831,600 tons (down 800 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 756,400 tons (up 10,400 tons) [7][14] Shipment - As of February 12, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 785,400 tons, a 6.50% increase. The overall shipment rate was 99.13%, up 3.89 percentage points [16] Profit - As of February 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was - 32.50 yuan/ton, a 12.07% decline. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 89.25 yuan/ton, a 0.51% decline [19][23] Group 4: Downstream Industry Float Glass Industry - As of February 12, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 148,000 tons, a 1.2% decrease from February 5. The weekly output was 1.0452 million tons, a 1% month - on - month and 4.18% year - on - year decrease [26] - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million weight boxes, a 4.31% month - on - month increase and a 12.28% year - on - year decrease [31] Group 5: Price Analysis - Most soda ash and related product prices remained stable from February 5 to February 12, 2026, except for a 1.01% increase in 5500 - kcal thermal coal and a 5.37% decrease in synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu [37] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis and Suggestions - Before the Spring Festival, the soda ash futures price continued to decline weakly. The core market logic is the intensified contradiction between high - level supply and a demand vacuum. During the Spring Festival, the macro - level changes may provide marginal support, but the supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and a short - term reversal is unlikely [38] - Operational suggestions: For single - side trading, wait and see or try short on rebounds; for arbitrage, there is no suggestion; for options, consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [39]

沪铝或以震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 24 | 2 | 月 | 日星期二 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 研究报告 铝周报 【宏观面、基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 国家统计局数据显示，2026 年 1 月份，全国居民消费价格同 比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 0.1%；食品价格 下降 0.7%，非食品价格上涨 0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服务 价格上涨 0.1%。1 月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.2%。其中， 城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 ...

研究报告 苹果周报 年前销区走货加快，年后或将承压运行 上周苹果期货主力合约走势震荡上行，当周总体涨幅较大。 2026 年苹果市场形成了"供给端支撑"与"需求端拖累" 的博弈格局。供给端"量少质差低库存"的强现实为价格筑牢 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 底部支撑，但需求端"价高销减"的偏弱预期持续压制上行动 能，终端消费疲软与市场接受度不足成为核心制约因素。供需 两端的矛盾将主导后续行情，苹果价格大概率在供给支撑与需 求压力的平衡中震荡运行。优质货源或因稀缺性价格保持相对 坚挺，普通货源则面临需求不足带来的价格波动压力。 | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 研究员：张正卯 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 | 月 | | 日星期二 | | 2 | ...

研究报告 供强需弱格局延续，期价震荡寻方向 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 节前一周，生猪期货盘面震荡偏弱运行，截至 2 月 13 日收盘， 生猪期货主力 LH2605 合约报 11500 元/吨，跌 0.22%，成交量 38318 手，持仓量 136660 手，日减仓 4468 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 节前一周生猪价格持续走弱，周均价重心下移，截至 2 月 13 日，全国生猪出栏均价 11.58 元/公斤，较周初下跌 0.47 元/公斤， 跌幅 3.9%，受前期仔猪价格高企、市场承接力不足影响，叠加春 节假期临近，养殖端补栏意愿低迷，带动节前仔猪价格环比回落， 全国仔猪周均价 357.14 元/头，二元母猪市场交投清淡，均价 1429 元/头，后备养户补栏积极性偏低，受猪价下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract fell 2.48%. During the long - holiday, the iron ore spot market was quiet, with few inquiries, quotes, and transactions. The Singapore iron ore swap declined slightly. It's expected that post - holiday restocking demand from steel mills will be low, providing limited support to the market. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons [4][30][31]. 3.2 Market Outlook - After the holiday, it's expected that steel mills' restocking demand will be low, offering limited support to the futures market. It is advised to stay on the sidelines [5][32]. 3.3 Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][33]. 3.4 Important Market Information - On February 16th, President Xi Jinping's article emphasized that in 2026, economic work should focus on key points, adhere to domestic - demand leadership, and build a strong domestic market. - On February 18th, Fortescue applied to the Western Australian EPA to build a 12 - million - ton - per - year Wyloo North iron ore project in the Pilbara region. - On February 21st, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods starting from February 24th, which was later raised to 15%. Trump also claimed that the US trade deficit had decreased by 78% [13][14]. 3.5 Supply - Side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month. - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 61.112 million tons, a decrease of 10.281 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's shipment volume was 18.891 million tons, a decrease of 8.744 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21]. 3.6 Demand - Side Situation - The report mentions data sources for 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, 247 steel mills' profitability rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire - rod procurement volume, but no specific data is provided [23][24][27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - From February 16th to 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.31 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.133 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.984 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.211 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.746 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 21.524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.656 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.277 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.033 million tons. - Rio Tinto expects the unit cash cost (FOB basis) of Pilbara iron ore in 2026 to be between $23.5 and $25 per wet ton. - By the end of 2025, over 80% of China's crude steel production capacity achieved ultra - low emissions. The energy consumption of blast furnaces and converters in 143 enterprises decreased by 2.5% and 12.2% respectively compared to 2023, saving 13.2 million tons of standard coal and reducing 34 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [30][31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures declined and adjusted due to weak fundamentals. The methanol weighted price closed at 2,248 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 3.19% drop from the previous week. The methanol supply was sufficient while the demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals remained weak. The support mainly came from the macro - face and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - face, geopolitics, and crude oil [4][6][7] - In the future, methanol may fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, affected by weak fundamentals, methanol futures declined. Spot prices in ports were weak, and inland prices continued to fall. The price range of Ordos North Line in the main production area was 1,785 - 1,798 yuan/ton, and the price range of Dongying in the downstream was 2,145 - 2,160 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production increased to 2,061,085 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.26%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 5, the olefin开工率 increased, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained flat, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,300 tons, a 13.16% decrease. The order backlog increased by 21,400 tons to 287,100 tons, an 8.05% increase. The port sample inventory decreased by 61,100 tons to 1.411 million tons, a 4.15% decrease [20][22] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material side was stable and slightly stronger, and methanol prices fluctuated. The theoretical profits of different process routes for methanol production showed different trends [26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more methanol plants are expected to resume production than to undergo maintenance. The estimated methanol production is about 2.073 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 92.79%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin开工率 is expected to continue to rise; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decline; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decline; the chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly [30][31] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to slightly decrease to 365,500 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate, and the accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and the change in提货量 [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of apple futures is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the apple market is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options operations [9][61][62] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, fluctuated within a range and slightly increased overall. As of the afternoon close on February 6, 2026, the apple 2605 contract closed at 9,535 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton for the week, a rise of 0.18% [6][12] 3.1.2 Spot Price - **Shandong**: Packaging and shipping in Shandong's production areas were okay. Fruit farmers' sales were concentrated in third - grade and small fruits. The prices of 75 and 80 fruit farmers' first - and second - grade apples in Penglai were 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin and 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin respectively. In Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin [18] - **Shaanxi**: In Yan'an, customers packed and shipped their own inventory. In Weinan and Xianyang, the transactions improved. The prices of 70 and above semi - commercial apples in Luochuan were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and the prices of 70 and above general goods were 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin [23] 3.2 Production Area Situation - On February 7, 2026, the Spring Festival stocking of apples entered the final stage. Fruit farmers' transactions were mainly low - priced goods, and the transaction prices remained stable and weak. In Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu, the market conditions in different production areas varied, but generally, the prices were stable or slightly weak [24][25][26] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of February 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.1981 million tons, a decrease of 342,500 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed accelerated compared to the previous week and was higher than the same period last year. The inventory ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, and Liaoning all decreased [36][37] 3.4 Sales Area Situation - Last week, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Chalong Market in Guangdong increased significantly compared to the previous week. The average daily arrival was about 51.2 vehicles. The market was congested with vehicles, and the sales of general goods and gift boxes were slow [41] 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - Last week, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [46] 3.6 Key Fruit Market - Last week, the average wholesale price of six key fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The prices of Ya pears and bananas increased, while those of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, watermelons, and pineapples decreased [50] 3.7 Export Situation - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a month - on - month increase in exports [55] 3.8 Production Statistics - In 2025, the national apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% compared to 2024. Shaanxi, Shandong, and Gansu had production declines, while Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning had production increases [57] 3.9 Market Outlook - The decline in the production and quality of new - season apples and low inventory strongly support prices. The current focus of the market is the Spring Festival stocking. As the stocking nears the end, the packaging volume is decreasing. The inventory removal accelerated last week, and the export volume is expected to increase in the first quarter. However, the large supply of citrus fruits with low prices impacts apple consumption. Therefore, the apple futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [60][61] 3.10 Operation Strategy - The main contract of apple futures is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options operations [62][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the boosting effect of the Spring Festival has faded, terminal stocking is winding down, inventory has significantly accumulated, the egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and egg prices still face downward pressure [8][64] - In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and the core driver focuses on the pace of capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens in production decreased by 0.54% month - on - month in January, and the lackluster chick - replenishment season since August last year will limit the increase in newly - opened laying hens. The supply - side pressure will gradually ease, and the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to turn from year - on - year increase to decrease in the second quarter of this year [8][64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with obvious contract differentiation. As of Friday's close, the main JD2603 contract was reported at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.34%; the JD2605 contract was reported at 3424 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.91% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country declined in tandem. Affected by the fading Spring Festival boosting effect and high terminal inventory, prices in the production areas continued to decline, and prices in the sales areas followed suit. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.76 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan per catty from the previous week; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [7][18] 3.1.3. Basis Situation - The basis of egg futures and spot prices narrowed from the previous high. As of last Friday, the main JD2603 contract closed at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, the spot price of eggs in the main production areas converted to the futures price was 3440 yuan per 500 kilograms, and the basis was 536 yuan per 500 kilograms [21] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **Laying Hens in Production Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in production decreased month - on - month. In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. Since August last year, the inventory has declined month by month. The newly - opened laying hens this month correspond to the chicks replenished in September last year, but the chick - replenishment season in September was lackluster, and the farming side was cautious in replenishing [27] - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample market was 641,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, the same as the previous week, and the monthly average age ranged from 473 to 497 days [30] - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume of eggs in the production areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total shipment volume of the main production area sample market was 7,180.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.10% and a year - on - year increase of 62.61% [36] 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The sales volume in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 7,397.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38% [39] - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of old hens in slaughter enterprises decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 2.2165 million, a decrease of 38,500 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [43] - **Chick Sales Volume**: The sales volume of chicks increased month - on - month. Since January, with the repair of farming profits and the low - price operation of chicks, the industry's enthusiasm for replenishment has significantly increased. In January, the total sales volume of representative enterprises was 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [47] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - The egg inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory in each link increased significantly month - on - month. As of Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.47 days, an increase of 0.89 days from the previous week; the circulation - link inventory was 1.77 days, an increase of 0.98 days from the previous week, with an increase rate of 1.72% [51] 3.2.4. Egg - Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - Last week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.54 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous week, with a profit of 0.23 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 yuan per catty. The farming cost of egg - laying hens was 133.97 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 yuan per hen, and the farming profit was 19.85 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 yuan per hen [54] 3.2.5. Related Products - **White - Feathered Broilers**: The price of white - feathered broilers in the country decreased month - on - month. The average pre - shed price was 3.73 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% [60] - **Pigs**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market continued, and the price declined weakly. The national average pig slaughter price was 12.22 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.57 yuan per kilogram from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.87% [63] 3.3. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1. Market Outlook - In the short term, the egg futures and spot markets weakened in tandem, and the main contract continued to operate weakly due to the drag of the spot market. In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and attention should be paid to the far - month contracts' expectations for capacity reduction [8][64] 3.3.2. Operation Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously monitor the pace of capacity reduction and the process of inventory reduction - **Arbitrage**: None - **Options**: None [65]