研究报告 甲醇周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 基本面改善有限，甲醇或延续震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 在供需改善带动甲醇港口实质性去库前，甲醇期货价格或区 间震荡，可考虑卖出宽跨式策略。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，甲醇基本面改善有限，甲醇期货震荡整理，至周五下 午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2356 元/吨，较前一周下跌 0.08%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量上升，供给端 仍缺乏持续性支撑。甲醇下游需求延续稳中偏好的态势，下游烯 烃开工率提升较为明显。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存 下降，企业待发订单量上 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The short - term fluctuations in Argentina's tariff policy caused significant global oil and fat price volatility. The EU - Indonesia trade agreement is beneficial for Indonesian palm oil exports, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improvement in exports have strengthened the palm oil industry chain. The rapeseed oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment before the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is clear. As the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, and the oil and fat market should be treated as having wide - range fluctuations [8][32]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures price of soybean oil Y2601 contract fell 1.99% to 8162 yuan/ton, palm oil P2601 contract fell 0.85% to 9236 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil OI2601 contract rose 0.93% to 10162 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of palm oil, from September 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS data) and 11.3% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month, and palm oil prices fell 0.63%. In terms of soybean oil, Argentina adjusted its tariff policy, first canceling and then re - imposing export taxes on agricultural products, and US soybeans fell 1.17% this week [7]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10400 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [12]. 3.3 Other Data - As of September 19, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 1.90 million tons to 147.40 million tons. On September 24, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased by 4.90 million tons to 64.60 million tons [16]. - As of September 26, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6718500 tons [20]. - As of September 26, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 278 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 6 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 238 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [26]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The short - term change in Argentina's tariff policy led to significant global oil and fat price fluctuations. The EU - Indonesia trade agreement is conducive to Indonesian palm oil exports, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improvement in exports have strengthened the palm oil industry chain. The rapeseed oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment before the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is clear. As the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, and the oil and fat market should be treated as having wide - range fluctuations [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The macro - impact has weakened, the supply - side support has diminished, the demand is unable to strongly drive prices up, and the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment is increasing [8][89][90]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 fluctuated between 15,280 - 15,725 yuan/ton, with a slight overall decline. As of September 26, 2025, it closed at 15,470 yuan/ton, down 65 points or 0.42% for the week [15]. (2) Spot Price - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of Thai smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,160 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [20][22]. (3) Basis and Spread - The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the natural rubber main contract futures price shrank slightly last week. As of September 26, 2025, the basis was - 770 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton smaller than the previous week. The domestic price of natural rubber decreased slightly last week, while the overseas price increased slightly [26][29]. Important Market Information - The Fed Chairman Powell said the stock price is overvalued, but it's not a high - risk time for financial stability. The US government implemented a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products. Some Fed officials suggested further interest - rate cuts. US economic data showed inflation, consumption, and employment trends. The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025. China's industrial enterprise profits increased in August, and the auto industry had good production and sales performance [30][31][33]. Supply - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the production of natural rubber in Vietnam increased significantly, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly, and that in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July 2025 was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% from the previous month. As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative production was 5.848 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. As of July 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [40][44][48]. Demand - side Situation - As of September 25, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.58%, down 0.08% from the previous week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.72%, up 0.06% from the previous week. As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly auto production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%; monthly auto sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 91,619 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46.71% and a month - on - month increase of 7.93%. China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 63.01 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46% [54][58][61]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 26, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE was 149,420 tons, down 5,500 tons from the previous week. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.09%. The total inventory in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76% [85]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak season. Weather has affected tapping, but the supply is expected to increase as the weather improves. In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. - Demand: The tire enterprise start - up rate changed little last week. The holiday will drag down the capacity utilization rate. The auto market had good production and sales in August, and tire exports increased in the first eight months. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory decreased significantly last week, and the social and Qingdao total inventories decreased slightly [86]. 后市展望 (Outlook for the Future) - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated slightly last week. Macro - factors show that the Fed's interest - rate cut is uncertain, and China's industrial enterprise profits increased in August. Fundamentally, supply support is weakening, demand is average, and the state - reserve rubber auction volume was large last Thursday. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to weather, demand, zero - tariff policy, and Sino - US tariff changes [87][88][89]. View and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [90][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to strengthen the supply and price stability of coking coal and other raw fuels, reducing market expectations for anti - involution. Coupled with the cautious capital market before the long holiday, the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the short term. It is recommended to stay cautious before the long holiday [6][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Disk Analysis - It includes futures price analysis, spread analysis (basis in dry tons), and futures position net position analysis, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [8][12][13] 3.2 Important Market Information - The third - quarter (110th) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and promote economic stability and reasonable prices. As of the end of August, the country's cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing rapidly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [16] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 105.22 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31. Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 0.514 million tons to 60.829 million tons, while Brazilian shipments increased by 5.35 million tons to 32.357 million tons [20][24] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - It involves indicators such as the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [26][28][29] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51% and a year - on - year increase of 6.41%. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 39.40%. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, an increase of 0.0134 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 0.0038 million tons. At 45 ports, the total inventory was 140.0028 million tons, an increase of 1.992 million tons, the daily average port clearance volume decreased by 0.0277 million tons, and the number of ships in port decreased by 5. The Indonesian mining minister stated that if miners meet the requirements related to the land restoration fund deposit, their mining licenses can be restored from the "suspended" state to the "normal" state [31] 3.6 Market Outlook - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has reduced market expectations for anti - involution, and due to the cautious capital market before the long holiday, the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the short term. It is recommended to stay cautious before the long holiday [32] 3.7 Operation Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and be vigilant about the risks of holding positions during the long holiday. For arbitrage and options, it is also recommended to wait and see [7][33]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are likely to fluctuate mainly. The price volatility of lead is narrowing, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [5][40] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2511 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 17,035 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,984 - 2,017 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year in real terms and 0.37% month-on-month. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Among 41 major industries, 31 had year-on-year growth in added value in August [16] 3. Spot Analysis - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,025 yuan/ton, 16,970 yuan/ton, and 17,040 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was around - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand - In July 2025, global lead mine production was 379.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 12 thousand tons from the previous month, at a relatively low level in the past 5 years. As of September 19, 2025, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 700 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 500 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee in Kunming was 280 yuan/metal ton. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead production was 66.7 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons from the previous month and 3.7% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25] 5. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,626 tons, a decrease of 3,108 tons from the previous week. As of September 25, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 219,550 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 10.14% [34] 6. Fundamental Analysis - Fed new governor Milan advocates more aggressive interest rate cuts, aiming to lower rates by 150 - 200 basis points. Global lead mine production decreased slightly, lead processing fees continued to decline, lead production in August increased month - on - month and was at a high level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level, while LME lead inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level in recent years [39] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to fluctuate mainly. The price volatility of lead is narrowing, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [40]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供需双弱，边际改善 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1266-1336 元/吨之间运行， 价格窄幅震荡。 截至 2025 年 9 月 26 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 下跌 19 元/吨，周度跌 1.45%，报收 1293 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双增，截止到 2025 年 9 月 25 日， 上周国内纯碱产量 77.69 吨，环比增加 3.12 万吨，涨幅 4.19%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 89.12%，前值 85.53%，环比增加 3.59%。 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存下降，截止 2025 年 9 月 25 日，国内纯碱 厂家总库存 165.15 万吨，较上周一下降 4.42 万吨，跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This year, the egg market shows a "peak season without prosperity" trend, with high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction. After the Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking ends, the market demand will cool down, and the futures market may show weak fluctuations [8][53] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading and continue the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage strategy, while remaining on the sidelines for options trading [8][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market showed range - bound fluctuations. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 3,112 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.22%. The trading volume was 389,049 lots, and the open interest was 398,055 lots [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - The average egg price in the main production areas last week was 3.69 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 7.89%. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.72 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 9.73%. However, prices in both areas declined towards the weekend [7][17] 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national areas last week was 2.98 yuan per chick, down 0.33% week - on - week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 50%. Due to farmers' weak replenishment willingness, the chicken chick market was oversupplied [21] 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - The average price of old hens in representative markets last week was 4.66 yuan per catty, up 0.22% week - on - week. The price first rose and then fell [24] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - In August, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.317 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 8.93%. It is expected that the inventory in September will decline slightly after reaching a high for the year [27] - The shipping volume in the main production areas last week was 7,491.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.52%. The shipping pace slowed down towards the weekend [31] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample points last week was 576,200, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%. The average slaughter age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [37] 3.2.2. Demand Side - In the Beijing market, the arrival volume was 89 trucks, a week - on - week decrease of 8.25%. In the Guangdong market, the arrival volume was 492 trucks, a week - on - week increase of 23.31%. The market shifted from tight to loose [40] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.3384 million, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. Due to farmers' reluctance to slaughter and weak terminal demand, the slaughter volume decreased [42][44] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 0.61 days, a 22% increase from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, unchanged from the previous day [47] 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28%. The breeding profit was 0.17 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 254.55%. The decline in feed prices led to a decrease in breeding costs, while the increase in egg prices improved profits [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile short - term trend. The macro - positive expectation of the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut has been fulfilled, leading to a cooling of market sentiment and a decline in energy and chemical product prices. The supply side has some support but faces future supply pressure. The demand side performs well, and inventory is continuously being depleted. However, due to the enhanced risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day holiday, the market is likely to be weak and volatile [8][9][90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 15,450 to 16,105 yuan/ton. It reached a high and then declined, with a slight overall drop. As of September 19, 2025, it closed at 15,535 yuan/ton, down 285 points or 1.8% for the week [15]. Spot Price - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,160 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [20][23]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis shrank slightly last week. As of September 19, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 835 yuan/ton, narrowing 170 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined slightly last week [28][31]. Important Market Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, 2025, with a high probability of another cut in October. The US 9 - month New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply, while retail sales and manufacturing output showed growth. The UK central bank maintained interest rates and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. China's economic data in August showed positive trends in industrial added value, consumption, etc. The automotive industry had good performance, with production and sales exceeding 20 million vehicles from January to August, and significant growth in new energy vehicle production, sales, and exports [32][35][37]. Supply - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the production of natural rubber in Vietnam increased significantly, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July 2025 was 927,000 tons, an increase of 10.96% from the previous month. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative production was 5.848 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. As of July 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [42][46][50]. Demand - side Situation - As of September 18, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.66%, up 0.2% from last week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.66%, up 0.07% from last week. As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%; monthly sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 91,619 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46.71% and a month - on - month increase of 7.93%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46% [56][60][63]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 19, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 154,920 tons, up 3,180 tons from last week. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.235 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 447,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95%. The bonded area inventory was 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; the general trade inventory was 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07% [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak - supply season. Weather has affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices, but supply pressure is expected to increase as weather disturbances ease. In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. - Demand: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. Semi - steel tires had concentrated orders for winter tires, while all - steel tire demand did not improve significantly. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - duty truck sales also increased significantly. From January to August, tire exports increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last week, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao decreased continuously [88]. 后市展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, the market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, the pilot project of zero - tariff Thai rubber, the progress of zero - tariff policies, and Sino - US tariff changes [90]. Viewpoints and Operation Strategies - This week's view: The natural rubber futures main contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile short - term trend. - Operation strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of shorting RU2511 and going long on RU2601; for options, temporarily wait and see [91][93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the market remains the pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The fundamental driving force is limited, and the short - term trend of the futures market is weak, expected to maintain a volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes and industry capacity adjustment [9][40]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there are no obvious trend opportunities; no arbitrage opportunities are available; for options, consider selling the wide - straddle strategy opportunistically to collect time value [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract SA2601 of soda ash fluctuated within the range of 1,283 - 1,352 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on September 19, 2025, the main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures rose by 28 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.17%, closing at 1,318 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 745,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,400 tons, a decline of 2.02%. Light soda ash production was 328,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 417,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. Individual enterprise shutdowns for maintenance and equipment problems led to the supply decline [10]. - Last week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.53%, a month - on - month decline of 1.76%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.87%, a month - on - month decline of 1.97%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 75.53%, a month - on - month decline of 1.86%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.27%, a month - on - month decline of 1.03% [12]. 2.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,755,600 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous Monday, a growth rate of 0.49%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 749,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 1,006,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,300 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 41,900 tons, a decline of 2.33%. The inventory last year was 1,398,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 356,800 tons, a growth rate of 25.51% [14]. 2.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - On September 18, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall soda ash shipment rate was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39 percentage points. The weekly soda ash supply decreased slightly, and the shipments of individual enterprises were good, with the overall production - sales rate slightly easing [17]. 2.4 Profit Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash in China was - 36.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.45 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw salt on the cost side remained stable, the price of coke increased slightly, and the cost side increased; the price of soda ash remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [20]. - As of September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash in China was - 70.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 16 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw salt remained stable, the price of coal increased, the cost side strengthened; the price of soda ash fluctuated steadily, and the by - product ammonium chloride decreased slightly, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process declined [24]. 3. Downstream Industry Situation 3.1 Float Glass Industry - As of September 18, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, the same as on the 11th. The weekly output of national float glass from September 12 - 18, 2025 was 1,121,200 tons, the same as the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 4.04% [28]. - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 60,908,000 weight cases, a month - on - month decrease of 675,000 weight cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10%, a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days were 26 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from the previous period [29]. 4. Spot Market Situation - The price of 5500 - calorie steam coal increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.46%; the price of well - mine salt in the East China region remained unchanged; the price of light soda ash in the Central China region increased by 20 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.77%; the price of float glass in China increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.17%; the price of ammonium chloride (dry ammonium) in Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 5%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 62 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.79% [37][39]. 5. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash market showed an overall volatile pattern. The supply - side pressure still exists. Although there may be fluctuations in individual devices during the week, the overall industry operating rate remains relatively high, and the production pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated. The demand side is weak, with downstream glass and photovoltaic industries purchasing on a just - in - time basis, limited new order increments, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Although the enterprise inventory has decreased compared with the previous week, the absolute level is still at a historically high level, reflecting the weak terminal demand. The profit situation is not optimistic, with both the ammonia - soda process and the co - production process continuing to operate at a loss, and the cost support is limited [40].

研究报告 油脂周报 基本面不同，油脂震荡整理 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | 电话：13609351809 | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 7 | | 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 22 星期一 | 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡整理，全周豆油 Y2601 合约上涨 0.07%， 以 8328 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2601 合约上涨 0.22%以 9316 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2601 合约上涨 2.14%，以 10068 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 7 榈油方面：近期，马来西亚多地遭遇连续强降雨，引发严重 洪灾，其中沙巴州受灾最为严重。沙巴州棕榈油产量约占马来西 亚总产量 1/5，降雨过多会影响新鲜果串收割和运输，或导致马 棕油产量下降 1～2 个百分点。棕榈油下跌 0.47%。 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 22 星期一 豆油方面：美国大豆对华出口量接近 ...