1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - After the corn futures and spot prices broke through the 2300 yuan/ton mark last week, the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. As the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grains has loosened, and the supply of market - circulating grain sources has increased steadily. Feed and deep - processing enterprises have completed their pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and the marginal demand for pre - holiday stockpiling has weakened. The continuous release of corn auctions on the policy side has alleviated the pre - holiday stockpiling pressure of grain - using enterprises and restricted the upward rhythm of grain prices. Overall, the market lacks a clear one - way driver, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [8][65] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the domestic corn futures market showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract C2603 rose at the beginning of the week and then declined under pressure. As of last Friday's close, it closed at 2271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09%. The CBOT corn futures market was volatile, closing at 428.25 cents per bushel as of last week's close, a decrease of 0.58% [5][14][19] - **Spot Price**: Last week, the national average weekly price of corn was 2332 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. The corn prices in the Northeast region fluctuated slightly with a slight upward shift in the price center. The prices in the North China region were generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas and ports first rose and then fell [7][25] - **Basis**: As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - main contract was 69 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [28] 3.2. Review of Relevant Information Last Week - **US Corn Sales**: As of the week ending January 15, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2025/26 season was 4010000 tons, compared with 1140000 tons a week ago [29] - **Argentine Corn Situation**: As of January 21, the planted area of Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season accounted for 93.1% of the total expected area, higher than 91.7% a week ago but 5.3 percentage points behind the same period last year. The heatwave may reduce corn production, and early - sown corn is most affected. As of January 21, 2026, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 12540000 tons of 2025/26 season corn, 490000 tons more than a week ago [29][30] - **Brazilian Corn Situation**: The predicted total output of Brazilian corn in the 2025/26 season is 136600000 tons, an increase of 600000 tons compared with the December prediction. As of January 22, the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 5%, higher than 1.6% the previous week but lower than 8.6% a year ago. The planting progress of the second - crop corn in 2026 in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 4.7% of the expected area. The export volume of Brazilian corn from January 1 - 23 was 3745000 tons. The ANEC predicted that the export volume of Brazilian corn in January would reach 3390000 tons, a 6.4% increase compared with the same period last year [30][31][32] 3.3. Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of January 29, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.93 days, an increase of 0.61 days compared with the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 1.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.21% [36] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: As of January 28, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 4405000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.14% [41] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Consumption**: From January 22 to January 28, 2026, the main corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed a total of 1385400 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 3900 tons [45] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Startup**: From January 22 to January 28, the processing volume, starch output, and startup rate of corn starch enterprises all decreased week - on - week. The total processing volume of the main corn starch processing enterprises in the country was 631400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4200 tons; the corn starch output was 328200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2600 tons; the startup rate was 59.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% [50] - **Deep - processing Enterprise Profit**: Northeast corn starch enterprises are still in the loss range, and North China corn starch enterprises are generally near the break - even line. The hedging by - product profit of Jilin corn starch is - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the hedging by - product profit of Shandong corn starch is 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the hedging by - product profit of Heilongjiang corn starch is - 129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [54] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China imported about 800000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 44.2% and a year - on - year increase of 133.12%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of corn was 2647700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.76%, far lower than the 7200000 - ton import quota [57] 3.4. Related Product Situation - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2707 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction prices in different regions showed different trends [60] - **Pigs**: Last week, the pig price continued to decline, with both futures and spot prices decreasing week - on - week. As of January 30, the national average slaughter price of live pigs was 12.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.66 yuan/kg compared with the previous week, a decline of 5.13%; the average slaughter price of fattened pigs was 13.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg compared with the previous week, a decline of 3.21% [64] 3.5. Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - **Market Outlook**: The market will continue to fluctuate within a range due to the increase in grain supply, the weakening of pre - holiday stockpiling demand, and the influence of policy - side auctions [8][65] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a range - fluctuation mindset for unilateral operations; there are no suggestions for arbitrage and options [9][66]

摘要： 【行情复盘】 1 月玻璃主力合约价格在 1035-1171 元/吨之间运行。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日下午收盘，当月玻璃期货主力合约 FG2605 下跌 31 元/吨，月度涨跌-2.85%，报收 1056 元/吨。 【重点数据趋势】 1 月，浮法玻璃市场呈现下行趋势，全国浮法玻璃市场均价 1090 元/吨，环比跌 39 元/吨，跌幅 3.45%。 研究报告 玻璃月报 2026 年 1 月玻璃月度报告 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 研究员：侯帆 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 | | | | 电话：15117218912 | | | | 邮箱：houfan@qq.com | | | | 年 报告日期：2026 2 | 月 | 日星期一 2 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 1 月，浮法玻璃样本企业库存呈现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the steel price is expected to fluctuate. The price of the rebar 2605 contract rose by 0.03% in February. The global and Chinese crude steel production decreased in 2025. The rebar inventory accumulated in line with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal pattern but was still at a low level year - on - year. The demand side remained weak, and the rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [5][1][33] - Operational strategies: For single - side trading, take a bullish stance on dips; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures price**: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented [7] - **Spot price**: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and spread**: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific data analysis is provided [13] Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work conference, aiming to continue building a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and strengthen the central bank's macro - prudential management function [16] - In 2025, national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 73982.0 billion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. The steel industry's profit was 1098.3 billion yuan, up 299.2% year - on - year, while the coal mining and washing industry's profit was 3520.0 billion yuan, down 41.8% year - on - year [16] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and market demand was insufficient [16] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year; the real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan; and the personal housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan [16] Supply - side and Demand - side Situations - **Supply - side**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills are mentioned, but no detailed data is provided [18][20] - **Demand - side**: In January 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, down 4% month - on - month; the purchasing manager index for the steel circulation industry was 47.1, down 0.9% month - on - month [24] Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [32] - In 2025, China's crude steel production was about 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%, dropping below 1 billion tons for the first time since reaching its peak in 2020 [32] Market Outlook - At the end of January, the weekly social inventory of rebar was 3.264 million tons, up 7.7% month - on - month and down 27.5% year - on - year. The inventory accumulation conformed to the pre - Spring Festival seasonal rule, but the demand side remained weak. The rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [33] Operational Strategies - Single - side trading: Take a bullish stance on dips - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In January, the egg market was boosted by the Spring Festival stocking effect, with egg prices rising significantly and a strong divergence between the spot and futures markets. In the short - term, the market was in a state of short - term supply - demand tightness, and the low inventory at each stage supported the spot price. The futures market showed a large discount due to the pessimistic expectation of a sharp decline in post - festival demand. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner. The far - month contracts have the potential for valuation repair [7][8][72] - The recommended operation strategies are to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - In January, the main contract of egg futures switched to JD2603, showing an oscillating trend. The highest price in the month was 3,101 yuan/500 kg, and the lowest was 2,970 yuan/500 kg. As of last Friday, the contract was reported at 3,002 yuan/500 kg, down 1.51% [5][13] 3.1.2 Spot Price - In January, egg prices rose significantly under the boost of the Spring Festival holiday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 yuan/jin (16.23%); the average price in the main selling areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 yuan/jin (14.66%) [7][18] 3.1.3 Basis - As of January 30, the egg basis was 998 yuan/500 kg, at a recent high. The strong performance of the spot market diverged from the futures market [22] 3.1.4 Chicken Chick Price - Driven by the increase in egg prices, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the breeding sector increased significantly in January. The average price of commercial - generation egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.83 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.12% [7][26] 3.1.5 Old Hen Price - In January, the price of old hens oscillated upward, and the breeding sector was reluctant to sell and hold back inventory. The average price of old hens was 4.41 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 yuan/jin (8.09%) [7][31] 3.1.6 Laying Hen Inventory - In January, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The inventory of laying hens was still at a high level in the past five - year average, and the supply pressure was not significantly alleviated [35] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in January was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The new production capacity in January corresponded to the chicks replenished in September last year, and the farmers were cautious in replenishing [35] - **Chicken Chick Sales**: In January, the total sales of chicken chicks were 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [42] - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Affected by the pressure to hold back inventory, the slaughter volume of old hens in January decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points was 2.9007 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, one day earlier than in December [48] - **Old Hen Slaughter by Enterprises**: Driven by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, the overall slaughter volume of the industry increased significantly in January. The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample slaughter enterprises was 10.0792 million, a month - on - month increase of 12.54% [52] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Vehicle Arrivals in Sales Areas**: Affected by Spring Festival stocking, the downstream market stocked up actively. In January, the number of vehicle arrivals in the Beijing market was 360, a decrease of 40 vehicles (10%) compared with December; the number of vehicle arrivals in the Guangdong market was 2,670, an increase of 23 vehicles (0.87%) compared with the previous month [56] - **Egg Sales in Sales Areas**: In January, the total egg sales in the sales areas were 32.19 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 thousand tons (9.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 60.55% [62] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - In January, the breeding cost of egg - laying hens increased slightly, and the loss margin narrowed significantly. The average breeding cost of egg - laying hens was 133.59 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan/jin (0.85%), and the breeding profit was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.46 yuan/jin [66] 3.2.4 Inventory Situation - In January, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of January 30, the production - link inventory was 0.58 days, a decrease of 0.44 days compared with December; the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, a decrease of 0.58 days compared with December [71] 3.3 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Since January, the concentrated release of Spring Festival stocking demand, combined with the concentrated release of cold - storage eggs in December and the month - on - month decline in egg - laying hen production capacity, has led to a short - term supply - demand tightness in the market, and the inventory pressure at each stage has been alleviated. Near the end of the month, the improvement in breeding profits has led to a slowdown in the culling of old hens, and the terminal stocking is coming to an end. However, the low inventory at each stage still supports the spot egg price. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner [8][72] 3.3.2 Operation Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Remain on the sidelines - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines - **Options Trading**: Remain on the sidelines [8][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract dropped by 0.06%. Although the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose with high port inventories, supported by the raw material replenishment demand of steel mills, iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk spillover effect of the sharp decline in precious metals on the commodity market [4][29] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: Not detailed in the report [6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PB powder (61.5%) at Tianjin Port is mentioned, but no specific price is given [6] - **Position Analysis**: Futures seat net position analysis is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [7] 2. Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 Macro - Prudential Work Conference, requiring the 2026 macro - prudential work to continue to strengthen the central bank's macro - prudential management function [12] - In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China reached 739.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline. The steel industry's total profit was 109.83 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 299.2%; the coal mining and washing industry's total profit was 352 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.8% [12] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [12] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year; the balance of real estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the whole year; the balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the whole year [12] - Two iron ore units of Brazilian mining giant Vale in Minas Gerais state were ordered to suspend operations and had their relevant licenses revoked due to continuous water overflow incidents [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month [17] - As of December 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 71.393 million tons, an increase of 9.544 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 27.635 million tons, a decrease of 3.328 million tons from the first half of the month [20] 4. Demand - side Situation - The profitability rate, daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [22][23][25] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the daily hot metal output was 2.2798 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 million tons [28] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 170.2226 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5573 million tons; the daily port clearance volume was 3.3231 million tons, an increase of 0.2158 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 106, a decrease of 12. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 177.5826 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6173 million tons; the daily port clearance volume was 3.4771 million tons, an increase of 0.2719 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 109, a decrease of 13 [28] 6. Market Outlook - Although the fundamentals are relatively loose and port inventories are high, supported by the raw material replenishment demand of steel mills, iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk spillover effect of the sharp decline in precious metals on the commodity market [29] 7. Operation Strategies - **Single - side**: Go long on iron ore on dips in the medium term [5][30] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5][30] - **Options**: Wait and see [5][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current methanol market is in a balanced state of supply - demand game. The support comes from cost support due to rising freight, downstream rigid procurement at low prices, and the expectation of inventory reduction after the subsequent decrease in port imports. The suppression factors are abundant domestic supply, high inventories in ports and inland areas, and weak downstream demand. However, boosted by the improvement in the macro - environment, methanol prices may still show a strong - side trend [8][33]. - In the future, methanol may fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to consider selling put options or using bull spread strategies [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, supported by the expected reduction in methanol imports, methanol futures showed a strong - side performance. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price reached 2,298 yuan/ton, a 2.64% increase from the previous week. - In the spot market, the port methanol market showed a volatile and consolidating trend under the combined influence of multiple factors. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,180 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,180 - 2,240 yuan/ton. In the inland market, due to abundant domestic supply, high inventories in the middle and lower reaches, and the off - season demand, enterprises actively reduced prices to clear inventory before the festival, and the market continued to decline. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line fluctuated between 1,787 - 1,835 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying, a downstream area, was between 2,115 - 2,115 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week (20260116 - 0122), China's methanol production was 2,008,915 tons, a decrease of 26,460 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, a 1.31% decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO in the Yangtze River Delta was 44.38%, a decrease of 9.46 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.25%, a 40.37% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides decreased significantly; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 34.51%, an increase from the previous week [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of January 21, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a 2.78% decrease; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 238,300 tons, a slight increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.21% increase. The inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4575 million tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous period, a 1.55% increase [18][22]. - **Profit**: Last week (20260116 - 0122), the profits of methanol production from various processes generally weakened. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 268.80 yuan/ton, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 176.80 yuan/ton, a 10.07% increase from the previous week; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 204.40 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease from the previous week; the weekly average profit of methanol production from coke oven gas in Hebei was 77.00 yuan/ton, a 28.04% decrease from the previous week; the weekly average profit of methanol production from natural gas in the southwest was - 266.00 yuan/ton, a 11.76% decrease from the previous week [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to resume production than to be shut down for maintenance. It is estimated that China's methanol production will be about 2.0746 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.87%, an increase from last week [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: For olefins, the weekly average capacity utilization rate is expected to decline; for dimethyl ether, the overall capacity utilization rate may increase; for glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase; for formaldehyde, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease; for chlorides, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease [30][31][33]. - **Inventory**: It is estimated that the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises will be 428,400 tons this week, with a continued expectation of inventory reduction. The port methanol inventory is expected to fluctuate little, and specific attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the pick - up volume [33].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats oscillated and rebounded. The complex news in the domestic and international oils and fats markets led to sharp fluctuations in the market. The cancellation of Indonesia's 2026 B50 plan and the expected resumption of Canadian rapeseed exports to China put pressure on the palm oil and rapeseed oil markets respectively. Currently, the domestic soybean oil spot is in a de - stocking cycle with a gradually rising price center. The fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil continue to improve, and Indonesia's continuous crackdown on illegal plantations boosts international vegetable oil prices. As the policy effects are released, the futures prices of oils and fats will oscillate strongly under the guidance of their own supply - demand fundamentals [5][9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the Y2605 soybean oil contract rose 0.97% to close at 8,094 yuan/ton, the P2605 palm oil contract rose 2.72% to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, and the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.72% to close at 8,991 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 8.6% - 11.4% month - on - month, and the production in South Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.91% [6][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: The ANEC raised Brazil's January soybean export forecast by 1.6% to 3.79 million tons, a 338.3% increase from the same period last year. The Abiove predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will reach 177.12 million tons, with exports of 111.5 million tons (a 3% year - on - year increase) and a crush volume of 61 million tons (a 4.3% year - on - year increase). US soybeans rose 1.07% this week [7][32]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,840 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of January 24, 2026, the national port soybean oil inventory decreased by 46,000 tons to 934,000 tons. As of January 21, 2026, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 776,000 tons [17]. - As of January 23, 2026, the port imported soybean inventory was 8,497,650 tons [19]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 536 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [23]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 838 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Report Core View - The macro - policy easing expectation is relatively strong, the market sentiment is acceptable, and supported by the recent raw material replenishment demand of steel mills. Overall, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term [5][35] Summary of Each Directory 1. Abstract - Last week, the 2605 contract of iron ore rose 1.21%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease and a 0.70% year - on - year increase. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86% week - on - week increase and an 8.23% year - on - year decrease. The daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a 0.09 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 2.65 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 167.6653 million tons, a 2.1143 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a 0.0916 - million - ton decrease [4] 2. Disk Analysis - It includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port), and futures position net position analysis [7][11][9] 3. Important Market Information - In December 2025, China's steel output was 68.18 million tons, a 10.3% year - on - year decrease. The global crude steel output was 139.6 million tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the global crude steel output was 1.8038 billion tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. In mid - January, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease, a 1.7% decrease compared with the beginning of the year, and a 5.2% increase compared with the same period last year [14] 4. Supply - side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, a 9.11 - million - ton increase from the previous month. The import average price was $101.16 per ton, a $0.33 decrease from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 71.393 million tons, a 9.544 - million - ton increase from the previous month. Brazil's iron ore shipping volume was 27.635 million tons, a 3.328 - million - ton decrease from the first half of the month [19][23] 5. Demand - side Situation - It involves the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the procurement volume of wire rods and screws at Shanghai terminals [24][28][30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease and a 0.70% year - on - year increase. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86% week - on - week increase and an 8.23% year - on - year decrease. The daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a 0.09 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 2.65 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 167.6653 million tons, a 2.1143 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a 0.0916 - million - ton decrease. The number of ships at ports was 118, an increase of 1. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 174.9653 million tons, a 2.0783 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2052 million tons, a 0.145 - million - ton decrease [34] 7. Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - Outlook: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of natural rubber futures last week showed a significant increase, with a prior decline followed by a rise. In the future, due to the bottom - cycle reversal logic of the chemical industry, the strong performance of synthetic rubber will drive the overall rise of the rubber sector, and the short - term sentiment may continue. The supply side still has certain pressure, while terminal consumption is good, and the inventory accumulation speed has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of natural rubber present a multi - empty game situation. Affected by the strong chemical sector and the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, the futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the overall macro sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather disturbances and raw material output in the main rubber - producing areas, inventory accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and changes in terminal demand [8][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber futures main contract RU2605 fluctuated between 15,525 - 16,340 yuan/ton, with a prior decline followed by a rise and a significant overall increase. As of the close on Friday afternoon, January 23, 2026, the main contract was reported at 16,315 yuan/ton, up 480 points or 3.03% for the week [6][15]. 现货价格 - As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,190 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [20][24]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with the previous week. As of January 23, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 315 yuan/ton, an expansion of 180 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic and international prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared with the previous week [28][31]. Important Market Information - A series of international events such as the Greenland issue, US economic data, and IMF's economic outlook updates were reported. The 2025 Chinese economic data showed that GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, and the automobile industry had good performance with production and sales reaching new highs. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [32][35][36]. Supply - Side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in the main natural - rubber - producing countries showed different trends. The total production in November was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%, and the cumulative output was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.01% [42][46][50]. Demand - Side Situation - As of January 22, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. As of December 31, 2025, China's automobile production and sales in December decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the annual production and sales reached new highs. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks in December increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings increased year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month. The automobile sales in major global countries also showed different trends [58][62][65]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of January 23, 2026, the natural - rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,480 tons from the previous week. As of January 18, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 17,000 tons or 1.3%, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased by 16,700 tons or 2.94% [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Domestic rubber - producing areas have fully stopped tapping, providing support for rubber prices. Some main producing areas are entering the low - production period, but Thailand's southern region is still in the peak - production period, so the supply side still has pressure. Import volume increased in 2025. Demand side: The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The automobile market had good annual performance but a decline in December. Tire exports increased. Inventory side: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and Qingdao's total inventory continued to rise, but the inventory - accumulation rate decreased slightly [87][88]. 后市展望 - The overall situation is similar to the core view, emphasizing the driving effect of the chemical industry and synthetic rubber on the rubber sector, the pressure on the supply side, good terminal consumption, and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. The futures market is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [89][90]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: The main natural - rubber futures contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the short - term callback risk and the pressure around 16,500 yuan/ton. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive traders can consider going long lightly on dips; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [91][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2603 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating and weakening trend, ranging from around 17,035 CNY/ton to about 17,415 CNY/ton [9] 3.2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year in real terms, and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, the added value increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. Among 41 major industries, 33 had year - on - year growth in added value in December, with different growth rates for each industry [13] 3.3. Spot Analysis - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 17,150 CNY/ton, an increase of 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,960 CNY/ton, 17,040 CNY/ton, and 16,970 CNY/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 140 CNY/ton compared with the previous trading day [16] 3.4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 CNY/metal ton, 200 CNY/metal ton, and 300 CNY/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 190 CNY/metal ton. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 719,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%, remaining at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [23] 3.5. Inventory Situation - As of January 23, 2026, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 29,351 tons, a decrease of 7,693 tons from the previous week. As of January 22, 2026, the LME lead inventory was 218,425 tons, a decrease of 4,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 14.08% [29] 3.6. Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year in real terms, and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. Lead processing fees changed little, and the price level was at the bottom. Lead production increased in December 2025 and remained at a relatively high level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory decreased to an extremely low level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [34]