研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 2.63%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.47%，环比减少 0.16%，同比减少 1.16%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 84.93%，环比减少 0.99%， 同比减少 1.20%；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比持平，同比减少 12.55%；日均 铁水产量 226.55 万吨，环比减少 2.65 万吨，同比减少 2.86 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 后市展望：港口铁矿石库存继续累库，铁水产量延续下降，供需双弱， 上周受偏强的商品市场情绪影响震荡反弹，铁矿中期预计以偏弱震荡为主。 单边：谨慎逢高轻仓偏空对待，若后市站稳 800 元/吨重要压力位，则 建议离场观望 （一）期货价格 （二） ...

电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 研究报告 橡胶周报 市场多空因素交织，盘面延续宽幅震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2605 价格在 15030-15550 元/吨 之间运行，走势先扬后抑、区间震荡，总体微幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约报收 15190 元/吨，当周下跌 40 点，跌幅 0.26%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约先扬后抑，总体微幅下跌。 展望后市，宏观方面，美联储降息，国内召开经济工作会 议后反内卷情绪升温，总体市场情绪偏暖，工业品指数反弹支 撑胶价。从基本面来看，国内产区产量下降难以对冲海外产区 供应增量，因此橡胶供应存在宽松预期。不过近期泰国和柬埔 寨地缘紧张局势持续，导致海外原料价格高企，橡胶供给端仍 然存在支撑。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均变化不大。目 前 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol did not improve significantly, and methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market may continue in a "weak balance" state. In the short term, the price has limited upside and downside potential. The sustainability of port inventory reduction needs to be observed. With the traditional downstream entering the year - end consumption off - season, the demand for methanol is expected to be weak. The subsequent rebound space of methanol futures may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted, with the methanol weighted closing at 2089 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 1.42% drop from the previous week. The port methanol market showed a low - level range - bound trend, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices declined weakly, with the price in the Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1980 - 2007 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2200 - 2223 yuan/ton. [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis (1) Production - From December 5 - 11, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,039,705 tons, an increase of 16,240 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.81%, a 0.81% increase from the previous week. [14] (2) Downstream Demand - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: The MTO industry's start - up decreased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 77.54%, a 9.94 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 8.98%, a 13.96% increase from the previous week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate increased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased to 41.49%. [19][20] (3) Inventory - As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous period, a 2.40% decrease. The sample enterprises' order backlog was 207,500 tons, a decrease of 32,200 tons from the previous period, a 13.45% decrease. The port sample inventory was 1,234,400 tons, a decrease of 115,000 tons from the previous period, an 8.52% decrease. [21][23] (4) Profit - From December 5 - 11, 2025, the economic losses at the upstream production end were slightly improved. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 29.29% increase from the previous week; in Shandong, the average profit was - 145.10 yuan/ton, a 37.62% increase; in Shanxi, the average profit was - 203.30 yuan/ton, a 15.92% increase; the weekly average profit of methanol made from coke oven gas in Hebei was 189.00 yuan/ton, a 3.08% decrease. [27][29] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls, with an estimated production of about 2.0554 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 90.50%, an increase from last week. - Downstream demand: The overall start - up of the olefin industry may still decline. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decrease, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate may increase, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may rise, and the chloride capacity utilization rate may decrease. The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 362,100 tons, a slight increase from last week. If the port unloading is smooth, the port inventory may accumulate. Overall, the methanol fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited. [32][33][34][35]

研究报告 铜周报 沪铜或以震荡偏强趋势运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期：2025 | 12 | 月 | 15 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 11 月份，全国居民消费价格 同比上涨 0.7%。其中，城市上涨 0.7%，农村上涨 0.4%；食品价 格上涨 0.2%，非食品价格上涨 0.8%；消费品价格上涨 0.6%，服 务价格上涨 0.7%。1—11 月平均，全国居民消费价格与上年同期 持平。11 月份，全国居民消费价格环比下降 0.1%。其中，城市下 降 0.1%，农村持平；食品价 ...

研究报告 拍卖消息扰动市场，短期震荡格局难改 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周玉米期货盘面价格偏弱震荡，截至上周五夜盘收盘，玉 米期货主力合约 C2601 收报 2242 元/吨，跌 0.04%；C2603 报 2234 元/吨，涨 0.09%。上周 CBOT 玉米期货主力合约盘面震荡运行， 截至上周收盘报 440.50 美分/蒲式耳。 研究报告 一、走势回顾 （一）期货价格 玉米期货主力合约日 K 线走势图 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 上周全国玉米周均价为 2321 元/吨，环比涨 26 元/吨；东北 玉米价格小幅回落，沈阳二等玉米价格为 2220 元/吨，较前周跌 20 元/吨；长春二等玉米价格为 2210 元/吨，较前周跌 10 元/吨； 华北玉米价格先涨后跌，山东寿光金玉米收购价格 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 市场缺乏明显驱动，盘面延续区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2605 价格在 14960-15350 元/吨 之间运行，走势先抑后扬、震荡偏强，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约报收 15230 元/吨，当周上涨 165 点，涨幅 1.1%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡偏强，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，宏观方面，美联储降息符合预期，国内召开经 济工作会议，市场情绪偏暖。从基本面来看，供给方面，海外 主产区天气扰动减弱，国内产区临近停割，国内产区产量下降 难以对冲海外产区供应增量，因此橡胶供应存在宽松预期。不 过近期泰国和柬埔寨地缘紧张影响部分地区原料产出，橡胶成 本端存在支撑。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均小幅上升。 企业整体出货节奏偏慢，轮 ...

"供增需稳、库存去化" 纯碱价格多空交织 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 研究报告 纯碱周报 摘要： 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1088-1152 元/吨之间运行， 价格重心下移。 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 下跌 44 元/吨，周度跌 3.87%，报收 1093 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率继续增加，截止 2025 年 12 月 12 日，当周国内纯碱产量 73.54 万吨，环比增加 3.15 万吨，涨幅 4.48%。纯碱综合产能利用率 84.35%，前一周 80.74%，环比增加 3.62%。 库存情况延续回落，截止 2025 年 12 月 12 日，当周国内纯碱 厂家总库存 149.43 万吨，较前 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 市场利空，油脂震荡回落 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡回落，全周豆油 Y2605 合约下跌 1.06%， 以 7994 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2605 合约下跌 2.40%以 8552 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2605 合约下跌 0.64%，以 9347 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 一、现货分析： 截止至 2025 年 12 月 11 日，张家港地区四级豆油现货价格 8,570 元/吨，较上一交易 日上涨 50 元/吨。从季节性角度来分析，当前张家港地区四级豆油现货价格较近 5 年相比 维持在较低水平。 截止至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，广东地区 24 度棕榈油现货价格 8,580 元/吨，较上一交易 日下跌 100 元/吨。从季节性角度来分析，当前广东地区 24 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约下跌 1.43%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.63%，环比减少 1.53%，同比减少 1.92%；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比减少 0.43%，同比减少 12.12%；日均铁水产量 229.2 万吨，环比减少 3.10 万吨。全国 45 个港口进 口铁矿库存 15431.42 万吨，环比增 130.61 万吨。 操作策略：上周铁水产量继续下降，港铁矿石库存继续累库，终端负 反馈较强，铁矿目前预期偏弱，预计以偏弱震荡为主。 单边：逢高轻仓偏空对待 套利：观望 期权：观望 【投资评级：★★】 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space of methanol may be limited. The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol futures may be limited. It is recommended that long positions in methanol futures consider reducing positions to take profits or temporarily exiting the market [1][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to the expectation of weakening methanol fundamentals, methanol futures declined and adjusted. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,119 yuan/ton, a 2.03% decrease from the previous week. The port methanol market was mainly strong, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,090 - 2,160 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,070 - 2,110 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1,992 - 2,007 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2,195 - 2,210 yuan/ton [13] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,023,465 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.092%, a slight decrease [16] - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand for methanol was stable. The olefin capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the acetic acid load decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [17][19] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous period, a 3.26% decrease; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 239,700 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase. The inventory of China's methanol port samples continued to decline, reaching 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 1.03% decrease [21][23] - **Profit**: Last week, the theoretical profits of domestic methanol sample process routes for methanol production improved. The losses of coal - based and natural gas - based production narrowed, and the profits of coke oven gas - based production increased [27] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, it is expected that the number of restarted domestic methanol devices will be more than that of overhauled ones. China's methanol production is expected to be about 2.0382 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.74%, an increase from last week [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin operating rate is expected to decrease, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to rise, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decrease, and the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase [30] - **Inventory**: The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly to 356,600 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to increase, but it depends on the unloading situation of foreign vessels [32] - **Overall**: The supply and demand of methanol are still loose, there is no substantial positive driving force in the fundamentals, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited [32]