研究报告 铅周报 沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 | | 号 | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 月 | 9 | 29 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 美联储新晋理事米兰公开主张，美联储应立即采取更激进的 降息措施，以避免对美国经济造成损害。他表示，当前利率过于 具有限制性，希望能够将利率下调 150 至 200 个基点，使其大幅 接近中性利率。国家统计局数据显示，8 月份，规模以上工业增 加值同比实际增长 5.2%。从环比看，8 月份，规模以上工业增加 值比上月增长 0.37%。1—8 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.2%。全球铅 ...

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供需双弱，边际改善 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1266-1336 元/吨之间运行， 价格窄幅震荡。 截至 2025 年 9 月 26 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 下跌 19 元/吨，周度跌 1.45%，报收 1293 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双增，截止到 2025 年 9 月 25 日， 上周国内纯碱产量 77.69 吨，环比增加 3.12 万吨，涨幅 4.19%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 89.12%，前值 85.53%，环比增加 3.59%。 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存下降，截止 2025 年 9 月 25 日，国内纯碱 厂家总库存 165.15 万吨，较上周一下降 4.42 万吨，跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This year, the egg market shows a "peak season without prosperity" trend, with high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction. After the Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking ends, the market demand will cool down, and the futures market may show weak fluctuations [8][53] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading and continue the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage strategy, while remaining on the sidelines for options trading [8][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market showed range - bound fluctuations. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 3,112 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.22%. The trading volume was 389,049 lots, and the open interest was 398,055 lots [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - The average egg price in the main production areas last week was 3.69 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 7.89%. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.72 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 9.73%. However, prices in both areas declined towards the weekend [7][17] 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national areas last week was 2.98 yuan per chick, down 0.33% week - on - week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 50%. Due to farmers' weak replenishment willingness, the chicken chick market was oversupplied [21] 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - The average price of old hens in representative markets last week was 4.66 yuan per catty, up 0.22% week - on - week. The price first rose and then fell [24] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - In August, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.317 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 8.93%. It is expected that the inventory in September will decline slightly after reaching a high for the year [27] - The shipping volume in the main production areas last week was 7,491.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.52%. The shipping pace slowed down towards the weekend [31] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample points last week was 576,200, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%. The average slaughter age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [37] 3.2.2. Demand Side - In the Beijing market, the arrival volume was 89 trucks, a week - on - week decrease of 8.25%. In the Guangdong market, the arrival volume was 492 trucks, a week - on - week increase of 23.31%. The market shifted from tight to loose [40] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.3384 million, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. Due to farmers' reluctance to slaughter and weak terminal demand, the slaughter volume decreased [42][44] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 0.61 days, a 22% increase from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, unchanged from the previous day [47] 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28%. The breeding profit was 0.17 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 254.55%. The decline in feed prices led to a decrease in breeding costs, while the increase in egg prices improved profits [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile short - term trend. The macro - positive expectation of the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut has been fulfilled, leading to a cooling of market sentiment and a decline in energy and chemical product prices. The supply side has some support but faces future supply pressure. The demand side performs well, and inventory is continuously being depleted. However, due to the enhanced risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day holiday, the market is likely to be weak and volatile [8][9][90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 15,450 to 16,105 yuan/ton. It reached a high and then declined, with a slight overall drop. As of September 19, 2025, it closed at 15,535 yuan/ton, down 285 points or 1.8% for the week [15]. Spot Price - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,160 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [20][23]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis shrank slightly last week. As of September 19, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 835 yuan/ton, narrowing 170 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined slightly last week [28][31]. Important Market Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, 2025, with a high probability of another cut in October. The US 9 - month New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply, while retail sales and manufacturing output showed growth. The UK central bank maintained interest rates and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. China's economic data in August showed positive trends in industrial added value, consumption, etc. The automotive industry had good performance, with production and sales exceeding 20 million vehicles from January to August, and significant growth in new energy vehicle production, sales, and exports [32][35][37]. Supply - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the production of natural rubber in Vietnam increased significantly, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July 2025 was 927,000 tons, an increase of 10.96% from the previous month. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative production was 5.848 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. As of July 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [42][46][50]. Demand - side Situation - As of September 18, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.66%, up 0.2% from last week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.66%, up 0.07% from last week. As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%; monthly sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 91,619 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46.71% and a month - on - month increase of 7.93%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46% [56][60][63]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 19, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 154,920 tons, up 3,180 tons from last week. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.235 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 447,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95%. The bonded area inventory was 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; the general trade inventory was 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07% [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak - supply season. Weather has affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices, but supply pressure is expected to increase as weather disturbances ease. In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. - Demand: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. Semi - steel tires had concentrated orders for winter tires, while all - steel tire demand did not improve significantly. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - duty truck sales also increased significantly. From January to August, tire exports increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last week, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao decreased continuously [88]. 后市展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, the market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, the pilot project of zero - tariff Thai rubber, the progress of zero - tariff policies, and Sino - US tariff changes [90]. Viewpoints and Operation Strategies - This week's view: The natural rubber futures main contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile short - term trend. - Operation strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of shorting RU2511 and going long on RU2601; for options, temporarily wait and see [91][93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the market remains the pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The fundamental driving force is limited, and the short - term trend of the futures market is weak, expected to maintain a volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes and industry capacity adjustment [9][40]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there are no obvious trend opportunities; no arbitrage opportunities are available; for options, consider selling the wide - straddle strategy opportunistically to collect time value [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract SA2601 of soda ash fluctuated within the range of 1,283 - 1,352 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on September 19, 2025, the main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures rose by 28 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.17%, closing at 1,318 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 745,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,400 tons, a decline of 2.02%. Light soda ash production was 328,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 417,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. Individual enterprise shutdowns for maintenance and equipment problems led to the supply decline [10]. - Last week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.53%, a month - on - month decline of 1.76%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.87%, a month - on - month decline of 1.97%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 75.53%, a month - on - month decline of 1.86%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.27%, a month - on - month decline of 1.03% [12]. 2.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,755,600 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous Monday, a growth rate of 0.49%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 749,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 1,006,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,300 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 41,900 tons, a decline of 2.33%. The inventory last year was 1,398,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 356,800 tons, a growth rate of 25.51% [14]. 2.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - On September 18, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall soda ash shipment rate was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39 percentage points. The weekly soda ash supply decreased slightly, and the shipments of individual enterprises were good, with the overall production - sales rate slightly easing [17]. 2.4 Profit Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash in China was - 36.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.45 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw salt on the cost side remained stable, the price of coke increased slightly, and the cost side increased; the price of soda ash remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [20]. - As of September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash in China was - 70.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 16 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw salt remained stable, the price of coal increased, the cost side strengthened; the price of soda ash fluctuated steadily, and the by - product ammonium chloride decreased slightly, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process declined [24]. 3. Downstream Industry Situation 3.1 Float Glass Industry - As of September 18, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, the same as on the 11th. The weekly output of national float glass from September 12 - 18, 2025 was 1,121,200 tons, the same as the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 4.04% [28]. - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 60,908,000 weight cases, a month - on - month decrease of 675,000 weight cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10%, a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days were 26 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from the previous period [29]. 4. Spot Market Situation - The price of 5500 - calorie steam coal increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.46%; the price of well - mine salt in the East China region remained unchanged; the price of light soda ash in the Central China region increased by 20 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.77%; the price of float glass in China increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.17%; the price of ammonium chloride (dry ammonium) in Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 5%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 62 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.79% [37][39]. 5. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash market showed an overall volatile pattern. The supply - side pressure still exists. Although there may be fluctuations in individual devices during the week, the overall industry operating rate remains relatively high, and the production pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated. The demand side is weak, with downstream glass and photovoltaic industries purchasing on a just - in - time basis, limited new order increments, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Although the enterprise inventory has decreased compared with the previous week, the absolute level is still at a historically high level, reflecting the weak terminal demand. The profit situation is not optimistic, with both the ammonia - soda process and the co - production process continuing to operate at a loss, and the cost support is limited [40].

研究报告 油脂周报 基本面不同，油脂震荡整理 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | 电话：13609351809 | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 7 | | 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 22 星期一 | 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡整理，全周豆油 Y2601 合约上涨 0.07%， 以 8328 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2601 合约上涨 0.22%以 9316 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2601 合约上涨 2.14%，以 10068 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 7 榈油方面：近期，马来西亚多地遭遇连续强降雨，引发严重 洪灾，其中沙巴州受灾最为严重。沙巴州棕榈油产量约占马来西 亚总产量 1/5，降雨过多会影响新鲜果串收割和运输，或导致马 棕油产量下降 1～2 个百分点。棕榈油下跌 0.47%。 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 22 星期一 豆油方面：美国大豆对华出口量接近 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend, with reduced price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the main contract CU2510 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and weakening market, with prices ranging from around 79,505 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 81,530 yuan/ton [9]. - Last week, LME copper futures prices showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with contract prices running around 9,919 - 10,192 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2宏观面 - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year [4][16][52]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 - bp rate cut by the Fed in October is 87.7%, and the probability in December is 80.9%. The expected number of rate cuts within the year is 2 [4][52]. 3.3现货分析 - As of September 19, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 79,970 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 80,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 80,000 yuan/ton, 79,970 yuan/ton, 80,130 yuan/ton, and 80,080 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - As of September 19, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained at around a premium of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [21]. 3.4供需情况 - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 12, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.42 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.16 cents/pound [28]. - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the monthly automobile output in China was 2.7524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [34]. 3.5库存情况 - As of September 19, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, an increase of 11,760 tons from the previous week. As of September 18, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 9.67%. As of September 18, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 315,206 tons, an increase of 2,364 tons from the previous trading day [40]. - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, the inventory in the Guangdong region was 21,000 tons, and the inventory in the Wuxi region was 29,400 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [40]. 3.6后市展望 - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. Price fluctuations will be reduced, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53].

研究报告 铁矿周报 铁矿或延续震荡偏强走势 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 9 22 | 月 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周 i2601 合约上涨 1.13%。 一、盘面分析 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.98%， 环比增加 0.15%，同比增加 5.75%；钢厂盈利率 58.87%，环比减 少 1.30%，同比增加 48.91%；日均铁水产量 241.02 万吨，环比增 加 0.47 万吨，同比增加 17.19 万吨，全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库 存总量 13801.08 万吨，环比下降 48.39 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly due to high port inventories and expected high import supplies. The methanol spot market performed well driven by the favorable inland market and positive macro - expectations. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Before the substantial destocking of methanol ports driven by improved supply - demand, the methanol futures price may fluctuate within a range, and a short strangle strategy can be considered [6][8][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,367 yuan/ton, down 1.41% from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol inventories hit a record high, but prices were slightly stronger due to macro - benefits and news. In the inland market, downstream buying sentiment was positive due to increased olefin external procurement and low enterprise inventories [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a 2.37% week - on - week decline. More devices were under maintenance than restarted [13][15] - **Downstream Demand**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products showed different trends. For example, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 64.69%, up 0.31 percentage points from the previous week [18] - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 10, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.31% week - on - week decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons from the previous period, a 3.91% week - on - week increase [22] - **Port Inventory**: As of September 10, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, an 8.59% week - on - week increase. Ports continued to accumulate inventory [24] - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples improved. The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased, and the losses of natural - gas - based methanol narrowed [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to restart than be under maintenance. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.9449 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.71%, an increase from last week [31] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rates of downstream products are expected to change. For example, the olefin industry's operating rate is expected to rise, while the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to decrease slightly, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [32][34] - **Overall Trend**: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September is positive for rubber prices. There is some support on the supply side, but there is still supply pressure later. The demand side shows good performance, and inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will likely maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8][9][87][88]. - The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. For the operation strategy, consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [9][90][91]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2601, ranged between 15,670 - 16,350 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated downward with a relatively large overall decline. As of the close on the afternoon of September 12, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 505 points for the week, a decrease of 3.09% [14]. Spot Price - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,170 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][22]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with last week. As of September 12, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,005 yuan/ton, narrowing 170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined compared with last week [26][28]. Important Market Information - US economic data: The US non - farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 from March last year to March this year. The August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The August CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000. The September Michigan consumer confidence index was at a new low since May. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates by 100 basis points starting from September [29][30]. - European economic data: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, indicating that the inflation - reduction process in the eurozone has ended [30]. - Chinese economic data: In August, China's core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat. The total import and export value in August increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The automobile production and sales in August increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, the automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [32][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - Natural rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the production in Vietnam increased significantly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% compared with the previous month [40]. - Synthetic rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [44][48]. - Tire imports: As of July 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [52]. Demand - side Situation - Tire enterprise operating rates: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.46%, an increase of 5.99% compared with last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.59%, an increase of 5.81% compared with last week [54]. - Automobile production and sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The monthly sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1% [58][61]. - Heavy - truck sales: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26% [67]. - Tire exports: As of July 31, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 151,740 tons, a decrease of 10,490 tons compared with last week. As of September 7, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons or 0.57%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 793,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 465,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.66% [84]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Currently, the global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recently, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, boosting raw material prices. In domestic producing areas, the new rubber supply rhythm has slowed down. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years [85]. - Demand side: Last week, enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, and the operating rates of tire enterprises significantly rebounded. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, with a high operating rate; the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly, and downstream stocking was cautious. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [85]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [86]. Future Outlook - Macro aspect: The significant downward revision of US non - farm payrolls and the unexpected decline in US PPI inflation data last week have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's core CPI in August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month; the PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat, ending the eight - month downward trend [87]. - Fundamental aspect: On the supply side, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, and the new rubber supply rhythm in domestic producing areas has slowed down. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, and the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. The cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export data increased slightly year - on - year. In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly, with a slightly larger depletion rate [87]. Views and Operation Strategies - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [90]. - Operation strategy: Consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [91].