1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the iron ore industry is ★★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The global iron ore shipping volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. The molten iron output continues to rise, and the supply and demand of the iron ore fundamentals are both increasing. The black industry chain is gradually getting rid of the negative feedback logic. Although the short - term market sentiment declined last week, it is expected that the medium - term iron ore trend will be oscillating and bullish, and the price center may have room to rise [5][32] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 0.06% [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated on March 26 that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding US President Trump's planned visit to China in mid - May. - Australian ore miner Fenix warned that due to the war in Iran, diesel supply is limited, affecting the Australian mining industry and forcing the company to scale back some business activities. Tropical Cyclone Narrel is raging off the coast of Western Australia, causing fuel supply disruptions. - The Pilbara Port Authority announced that several ports have been closed due to Tropical Cyclone Narrel [14] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of February 2026, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 9,763.79 million tons, a decrease of 2,201.21 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.34 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton from the previous month. - As of February 2026, Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 5,231.4 million tons, a decrease of 879.8 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipping volume was 2,293.7 million tons, an increase of 404.6 million tons from the first half of the month [18][21] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are used to measure the demand - side situation, but specific data trends are not elaborated in this part [22][28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3109 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17.00031 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 98.09 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1317 billion tons, a decrease of 7.80 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 111, an increase of 11. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17.66683 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 147.35 million tons [31] 3.6 Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipping volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. The molten iron output continues to rise, and the supply and demand of the iron ore fundamentals are both increasing. The black industry chain is gradually getting rid of the negative feedback logic. Although the short - term market sentiment declined last week, it is expected that the medium - term iron ore trend will be oscillating and bullish, and the price center may have room to rise [5][32] 3.7 Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, take a bullish approach on dips in the medium term. - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude. - For options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [5][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. As of the afternoon close on March 27, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 9967 yuan/ton, down 754 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 7.03%. The apple price is supported by low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods, remaining stable with a slight upward tendency. However, the abundant supply of common goods and large pressure on sales limit the upside potential of the price. The substitution impact of alternative fruits has weakened. It is expected that the apple futures price will maintain a wide - range high - level oscillation in the short term. The market is shifting its focus to the new - season apples, and the weather during the apple flowering period from late March to April is a key variable [6][8][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (1) Futures Price - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. As of the afternoon close on March 27, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 9967 yuan/ton, down 754 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 7.03% [6][12]. (2) Spot Price - **Shandong**: Some merchants in Shandong last week looked for high - quality and cost - effective goods to replenish the market. The demand from export processing decreased slightly. The remaining small fruits were limited, and some began to source 75 fruits. The enthusiasm of fruit farmers for selling common goods was not high, and the overall purchasing by merchants was dull. In Penglai, the mainstream price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of late - Fuji 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 common goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was about 2 yuan/jin [17]. - **Shaanxi**: The trading of high - quality goods in Shaanxi slowed down last week. Due to the reduction of cost - effective and suitable goods, a small number of merchants withdrew or transferred. In Yan'an, the trading mainly involved high - quality goods in the hands of fruit farmers and merchants, and the common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Weinan and Xianyang, the overall sales were slow, and the remaining goods in the warehouse were mostly low - quality goods of fruit farmers, which still faced sales pressure. In Luochuan, the mainstream transaction price of 70 and above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods was around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin, 70 and above common goods was 3.7 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade waste was around 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. The mainstream transaction price of 70 and above merchants' semi - commercial goods was around 4.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 80 and above was 5 - 5.8 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. In Baishui, the price of 75 and above common goods of fruit farmers was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the price of 75 and above high - quality semi - commercial goods of merchants was 4 - 4.3 yuan/jin, priced according to quality [21]. II. Production Area Situation - On March 28, 2026, the apple trading in production areas was dull. Purchasers' enthusiasm was low, and the sales speed was slow. High - quality goods were hard to find in the western production areas, with stable prices. Common and poor - quality goods were traded through bargaining, and the market was in a mess. In Shandong, the overall sales speed was slow. Inventory holders continued to sell their own goods, and the trading volume of fruit farmers' goods was small, especially for medium - quality goods, and the market was under pressure [23]. - **Shandong**: In Qixia, the trading of inventory apples was slow. Purchasers' enthusiasm was low, and merchants replenished goods in small quantities as needed. The market price was stable. The price of inventory paper - bagged Fuji 80 first - and second - grade was 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, the price of inventory 80 and above merchants' third - grade fruit was 1.80 - 2.40 yuan/jin, and the price of inventory Fuji 75 first - and second - grade was about 2.80 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the trading of inventory Fuji was weak. There were not many inquiring merchants in the cold storage, and the sales volume was limited. The market price was stable but weak. The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji high - quality common goods of 75 and above was 2.20 - 2.30 yuan/jin, and that of general common goods was 1.60 - 2.00 yuan/jin [23]. - **Shaanxi**: In Luochuan, the trading of inventory Fuji was generally stable. Downstream traders followed the market, and the trading volume was average, with little price change. The current transaction price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji 70 and above semi - commercial goods was 4.20 - 4.40 yuan/jin, and the price of 70 and above common goods was 3.50 - 3.70 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the overall sales speed of inventory Fuji was slow. Affected by the quality of goods, the price was a bit chaotic, and transactions were mainly based on quality. The current price of inventory paper - bagged Fuji 75 and above high - quality common goods was 2.20 - 2.80 yuan/jin [24]. - **Shanxi**: In Yuncheng Linyi, the trading of inventory Fuji was light. Market merchants continued to select paper - plus - film goods for purchase, and the sales speed was slow, with stable prices. The current price of inventory film - bagged late - Fuji 75 and above was about 1.50 yuan/jin, and the price of paper - plus - film late - Fuji 80 and above was 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin [24]. - **Gansu**: In Jingning, there were not many remaining inventory Fuji. The trading of fruit farmers' goods was basically coming to an end, and transactions were based on quality. The current price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji 75 and above fruit farmers' commercial goods in Renda Town was 5.00 - 5.50 yuan/jin, and the price of common goods was 4.00 - 4.60 yuan/jin [24]. III. Inventory Situation - The peak cold - storage entry volume of late - Fuji this season was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 4.4179 million tons, a decrease of 266,400 tons compared with last week, and the sales speed slowed down slightly [32]. - **Shandong**: The storage capacity ratio last week was 37.01%, a decrease of 1.38% compared with last week. Some merchants looked for high - quality and cost - effective goods to replenish the market, and the demand from export processing decreased slightly. The remaining small fruits were limited, and some began to source 75 fruits. The enthusiasm of fruit farmers for selling common goods was not high, and the overall purchasing by merchants was dull [32]. - **Shaanxi**: The storage capacity ratio last week was 33.68%, a decrease of 2.57% compared with last week. The trading of high - quality goods slowed down. Due to the reduction of cost - effective and suitable goods, a small number of merchants withdrew or transferred. In Yan'an, the trading mainly involved high - quality goods in the hands of fruit farmers and merchants, and the common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Weinan and Xianyang, the overall sales were slow, and the remaining goods in the warehouse were mostly low - quality goods of fruit farmers, which still faced sales pressure [32]. - **Other Areas**: The storage capacity ratio of Gansu last week was 22.66%, a decrease of 1.82% compared with last week. The trading slowed down. Merchants purchased a small amount of high - quality goods as needed, and fruit farmers' goods were gradually cleared from the warehouse, leaving a small amount of low - quality goods. The storage capacity ratio of Shanxi was 22.76%, a decrease of 1.62% compared with last week. There were not many merchants in the cold storage, and they began to look for paper - plus - film goods, with average overall transactions. The storage capacity ratio of Liaoning was 38.72%, a decrease of 2.94% compared with last week. Merchants actively replenished goods, mainly looking for common goods of fruit farmers, and a small amount of high - quality goods were traded [32][33]. IV. Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Guangdong wholesale market last week increased slightly compared with the previous week. Actual transactions were priced according to quality. The current arrival volume of vehicles in the market is at a normal level, and there is no obvious backlog in the transfer warehouse. The willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase is not high, and the recent market sales are slow, with chaotic selling prices [37]. V. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.35 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [42]. VI. Key Fruit Market - As of the 13th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with the 12th week. The prices of the six kinds of fruits fluctuated last week. The average wholesale prices of apples and Kyoho grapes increased by 0.04 yuan/kg and 0.33 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 12th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, pineapples, watermelons, and pears decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.30 yuan/kg, 0.17 yuan/kg, and 0.01 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 12th week. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples increased compared with last week [46]. VII. Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in February 2026 was about 79,100 tons, a decrease of 20.831% compared with the previous month and an increase of 15.91% compared with the same period last year. Seasonally, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak export seasons for apples. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase compared with the previous quarter [50]. VIII. Production Statistics - In 2025, the domestic apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% compared with last year. The production in Shaanxi was 7.6006 million tons, a decrease of 6.97% compared with 2024; in Shandong, it was 7.246 million tons, a decrease of 16.54%; in Gansu, it was 3.5457 million tons, a decrease of 4.45%; in Henan, it was 2.469 million tons, an increase of 9%; in Shanxi, it was 3.045 million tons, an increase of 11%; in Liaoning, it was 2.1561 million tons, an increase of 3%; and in other areas, it was 8.2518 million tons, a decrease of 6.68% [50][53]. IX. Market Outlook - The apple futures main contract showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. From the fundamental perspective, the trading in apple production areas last week slowed down slightly compared with the previous week, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking was average. In terms of production - area transactions, there were limited high - quality goods in the western production areas, and most high - quality goods were in the hands of merchants. The common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Shandong, the export slowed down slightly, and merchants preferred to purchase high - quality goods. In terms of price, the price of high - quality goods remained stable and firm, and the price of common and lower - quality goods was mainly stable. In the sales areas, the overall sales atmosphere was not strong, and second - and third - level wholesalers mainly purchased as needed, with average sales. Overall, the low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods provide strong support for the apple price, and the apple price is stable with a slight upward tendency. However, due to the abundant supply of common goods and large sales pressure, some fruit farmers even sold at reduced prices, which limited the upside potential of the apple price. In terms of alternative fruits, the supply of pears and citrus fruits gradually decreased after mid - March, and summer seasonal fruits have not been on the market in large quantities, so the substitution impact on apples has weakened. Currently, the market sales are slow, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is generally average. There are different views on the market after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. Due to the real support of the scarcity of high - quality goods and the expected stocking demand for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and May Day holidays, the futures price has certain support after the correction. In summary, it is expected that the apple futures price will maintain a wide - range high - level oscillation in the short term. The market is shifting its focus to the new - season apples. The weather from late March to April is a key variable during the apple flowering period, and special attention should be paid to the market speculation sentiment caused by extreme weather such as "late spring cold" in the main producing areas [55][56]. X. Views and Strategies - **This Week's View**: The apple futures main contract may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. - **Operation Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: Consider buying on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for the time being. - **Options**: Wait and see for the time being [57][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures first rose and then fell, with an overall weekly decline. The market is caught in a tug - of - war between supply contraction and weak demand. - The supply side shows positive changes with a significant week - on - week decline in weekly output and operating rate, which eases supply pressure and provides bottom support for prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream purchases mainly for low - price and just - in - time needs. The overall shipment rate has dropped to a recent low, and the de - stocking process is hindered. - Rising raw material costs are squeezing industry profit margins. The profit of the combined - soda process has declined from its peak, and the ammonia - soda process continues to be slightly in the red. - The latest real - estate data shows a continued year - on - year decline in new construction and completion areas, suppressing long - term demand expectations. - In the short term, supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,700 tons or 5.22%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 368,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,100 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 407,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,600 tons [9]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.87%, down 4.51 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the combined - production capacity utilization rate was 76.17%, down 3.81 percentage points from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 84.47%, down 3.70 percentage points from the previous week [11]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8519 million tons, an increase of 40,300 tons or 2.22% from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 946,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 905,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,500 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 1,900 tons or 0.10%. The inventory of light soda ash decreased by 16,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash increased by 14,600 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,900 tons or 13.61% [15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.56%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.23%, a decrease of 9.39 percentage points from the previous week [17]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process for Chinese soda ash was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.49%. During the week, the price of raw - material mine salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased significantly, strengthening the cost side. The prices of soda ash and its by - product ammonium chloride were relatively stable. Therefore, with the increase in costs, the double - ton profit of the combined - soda process decreased slightly [20]. - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for Chinese soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw - material sea salt remained stable, and the price of anthracite coal fluctuated and adjusted downward, with a slight increase in the cost side. The soda ash market remained stable with no significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 26, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 144,900 tons, a decrease of 0.62% compared with the 19th. The weekly output of national float glass from March 20 - 26, 2026 was 1.0145 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [26]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 814,000 weight boxes or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days were 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 day from the previous period [30]. 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased from 731 yuan/ton to 756 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%. The price of well - mine salt in East China remained stable at 260 yuan/ton. - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of float glass in China increased from 1163 yuan/ton to 1169 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass in China remained stable at 10 yuan/square. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased from 860 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.65%. The price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained stable at 660 yuan/ton. The price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased from 2490 yuan/ton to 2477 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [35]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The short - term supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. - Operation suggestions: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading. Since supply contraction provides support but weak demand restricts the upside, one can sell high and buy low between key support and resistance levels. For arbitrage, there are no specific suggestions. For options, one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums and increase returns in a volatile market [36][37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main factor boosting methanol is the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the focus on the navigation issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem is not substantially resolved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted. Methanol is likely to continue its strong performance in the short - term, and long - position operations in methanol futures and buying methanol call options are recommended [8][9] - The price increase of methanol has led to a simultaneous increase in domestic supply and demand. The continuous geopolitical tension and the significant reduction in methanol imports will continue to be the most important factors boosting methanol in the future [7][32] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran was the main factor boosting methanol. The methanol futures continued to rise significantly. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price reached 3,053 yuan/ton, a 10.5% increase from the previous week. The port methanol inventory decreased, supporting the coastal market. The international situation led to limited international shipping capacity and poor import expectations, strongly boosting the domestic methanol market. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,790 to 3,180 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market also increased, but the increase was less than that in the port market. The price in Ordos North Line ranged from 2,160 to 2,330 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2,505 to 2,555 yuan/ton [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a 2.65% increase from the previous week [14] - **Downstream**: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of methanol downstream varieties showed different trends. The olefin industry's start - up increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region reaching 40.23%, a 1.28 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.49%, and it increased. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate remained flat, and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate slightly decreased [17][18] - **Inventory**: As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a 7.21% decrease. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 5.26% increase. The port sample inventory was 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons from the previous period, a 3.89% decrease [19][23] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material price increase was weaker than the methanol price increase, so the methanol production profit further strengthened. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was 128.30 yuan/ton, a 270.81% increase; in Shandong, it was 247.30 yuan/ton, a 128.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 200.90 yuan/ton, a 477.30% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 442.00 yuan/ton, a 22.44% increase; and the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest was 146.00 yuan/ton, a 404.17% increase [25][26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Next week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to resume production than to be under maintenance. It is estimated that China's methanol production will be about 2.0848 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 93.32%, with an increase in production [28] - **Downstream demand**: The MTO industry's start - up rate is expected to increase slightly. The dimethyl ether supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat. The formaldehyde supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease [29][30][31][32] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 481,900 tons, a decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory may continue to decrease, and attention should be paid to the change in the提货 volume [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. The low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods provide strong support for apple prices. In the short term, apple prices will remain polarized, with high - quality goods continuing to be strong, and some low - quality goods may be sold at discounted prices. With the upcoming Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream demand is expected to be boosted, accelerating inventory clearance [7][55]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, showed a volatile upward trend and a significant overall increase. As of the afternoon close on March 20, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 10,721 yuan/ton, rising 723 yuan/ton for the week, a 7.23% increase [5][10]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - **Shandong**: The overall apple price in Shandong remained stable last week. Some buyers of high - quality goods moved from the western to Shandong. The price of high - quality goods was firm. In Penglai, the mainstream price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' apples was 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade fruit was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apple farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 general goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was about 2 yuan/jin [16]. - **Shaanxi**: The trading of high - quality goods in Shaanxi was active in the first half of the week and slowed down in the second half. The overall trading in Yan'an was mainly high - quality goods, with prices firm. In Luochuan, the ex - warehouse price of 70 and above semi - commercial fruit farmers' apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the general goods was 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the price of 75 high - quality general goods was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [21]. 3.2 Production Area Situation - **Gansu**: On March 21, 2026, the inventory of apples in Gansu decreased significantly. The quality of Huaniu apples declined, and the price was weak. The price of high - quality Fuji apples was basically stable [23]. - **Shandong**: The trading of inventory Fuji apples in Qixia was light. The price of high - quality goods was stable, and general goods were priced according to quality. In Yiyuan, the trading was also light, and the price was weak [23]. - **Shaanxi**: The trading of inventory Fuji apples in Luochuan was stable, and the price changed little. In Weinan, the quality of inventory Fuji apples was uneven, and the price was chaotic [24]. - **Shanxi**: The trading of inventory Fuji apples in Yuncheng Linyi was stable. The remaining quantity of film - bag Fuji was small, and the trading of paper - plus - film apples was good [24]. - **Liaoning**: The local apple sales were smooth, mainly general goods from fruit farmers, and high - quality goods were sold in small quantities [33]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of apples in the main producing areas' cold storage was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from the previous week. - **Shandong**: The storage capacity ratio was 38.39%, a decrease of 1.66% from the previous week. The trading of high - quality goods increased slightly [32]. - **Shaanxi**: The storage capacity ratio was 36.25%, a decrease of 2.96% from the previous week. The trading of high - quality goods was active in the first half of the week and slowed down in the second half [32]. - **Other Areas**: The storage capacity ratio in Gansu was 24.48%, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous week; in Shanxi, it was 24.38%, a decrease of 1.76% from the previous week; in Liaoning, it was 41.66%, a decrease of 2.79% from the previous week [32][33]. 3.4 Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arrivals at the Guangdong wholesale market increased slightly last week. The actual transactions were priced according to quality. The current arrival volume was normal, and there was no obvious backlog in the transit warehouse. The willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase was not high, and the sales were slow with chaotic prices [37]. 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.35 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [41]. 3.6 Key Fruit Market - As of the 12th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the 11th week. Most of the six kinds of fruits showed a downward trend, with the exception of Kyoho grapes, whose wholesale price increased by 0.01 yuan/kg [44]. 3.7 Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a 28.63% increase from the previous month and a 26.76% increase from the same period last year. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak export seasons for apples. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase quarter - on - quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [49]. 3.8 Production Statistics - In 2025, the domestic apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a 6.01% decrease from the previous year. Shaanxi's production was 7.6006 million tons, a 6.97% decrease; Shandong's was 7.246 million tons, a 16.54% decrease; Gansu's was 3.5457 million tons, a 4.45% decrease; Henan's was 2.469 million tons, a 9% increase; Shanxi's was 3.045 million tons, an 11% increase; Liaoning's was 2.1561 million tons, a 3% increase; and other areas' was 8.2518 million tons, a 6.68% decrease [51][54]. 3.9 Market Outlook - The apple futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. The low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods provide strong support for apple prices. In the short term, apple prices will remain polarized, with high - quality goods continuing to be strong, and some low - quality goods may be sold at discounted prices. With the upcoming Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream demand is expected to be boosted, accelerating inventory clearance. Next week, attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking situation, market trading atmosphere, merchants' replenishment situation, alternative fruit trading situation, and weather conditions in the main producing areas [55]. 3.10 Operation Strategy - **Unilateral**: Consider buying on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract for positive arbitrage. - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant with a slight weekly increase in production and high industry operating rates. The demand is stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing stocks based on rigid needs and showing increasing resistance to high prices. The latest real - estate data from January - February suppress the long - term demand expectations for soda ash. Although short - term inventory reduction provides bottom support, the upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][37] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 818,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,900 tons or 1.11%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 384,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 434,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,700 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous value of 87%. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, remaining flat month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons or more was 88.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points [11] 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons or 2.61% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 963,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 890,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,900 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 77,900 tons or 4.03%. The inventory was 166,000 tons or 9.84% higher than the same period last year [14] 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 887,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.71 percentage points [16] 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit (dual - ton) of the Chinese co - production method for soda ash was 227.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.50%. The price of raw material rock salt was stable during the week, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, the cost continued to decline, the soda ash price remained stable, and the price of by - product ammonium chloride increased, so the dual - ton profit of the co - production method continued to strengthen [19] - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit of the Chinese ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 25.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. The price of raw material sea salt remained stable during the week, the price of anthracite continued to decline, the cost fluctuated downward, and the market price of soda ash was stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process only adjusted slightly [23] 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 19, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 145,800 tons, a decrease of 0.75% compared with the 12th. The output of national float glass from March 13 - 19, 2026 was 1.0223 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [26][30] 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 7.4436 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86% [31] 3.3 Price Analysis - The price of thermal coal (5500 kcal) decreased by 1.75% month - on - month; the prices of well - mine salt in different regions remained unchanged; the prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained stable; the price of float glass increased by 0.52% month - on - month; the price of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged; the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased by 4.88% month - on - month; the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan increased by 13.79% month - on - month; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 14.22% month - on - month [36] 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated downward with a significant weekly decline. The market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing, which supports the market sentiment. However, the macro - level concerns remain, and the real - estate data suppress the long - term demand expectations. The profit of the co - production method continues to strengthen, and the loss of the ammonia - soda process narrows. The upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [37] 3.5 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to short on rebounds - Arbitrage: None - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for option contracts [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of last week, the price of the main contract AL2605 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a downward trend, ranging from around 23,100 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,315 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year in real terms. In February, it increased by 0.83% month-on-month. From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 527.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year. In February, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.39% month-on-month [2][11][31] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In February 2026, the alumina supply surplus was 80,000 tons, compared with a supply gap of 130,000 tons last month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years. In January 2026, the cumulative surplus of electrolytic aluminum supply was 218,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared with the past five years [16] 4. Inventory Situation - As of March 20, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 452,044 tons, an increase of 35,619 tons from the previous week. As of March 19, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 36.57%. As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.299 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous day [22] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The import volume of bauxite has decreased, and the global alumina supply surplus has eased. The global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum are basically balanced. The in - production capacity of alumina in China has been continuously decreasing, and the alumina operating rate has declined. The electrolytic aluminum capacity in China is approaching full - load operation, and the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has been slowly increasing. The Shanghai aluminum inventory has continued to rise significantly, and the inventory level is at the highest in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level remains at a relatively low level in recent years [2][31] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for option contracts [3][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The pig futures market continued to be weak this week, with the main contract price falling by more than 8% in a single week. The spot price also declined, and the pig price has been below the industry average cost line for nearly half a year. The supply side has a high inventory base and high slaughter weights, while the terminal consumption is in a seasonal off - season, making it difficult to support pig prices. The policy side released capacity control signals, and it is expected that the reasonable reserve target of breeding sows will be further reduced to 36.5 million, a reduction of 7.8% compared to the end of 2025. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation has not changed, and the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [8][81]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the pig futures market continued to be weak and accelerated its decline. The main contract price hit new lows. As of March 20, the LH2605 contract was reported at 10,220 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of more than 8% [5][13]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Since 2026, the domestic pig market has continued to decline. As of March 20, the national average pig slaughter price dropped to 9.87 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decline of 0.16 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decline of more than 30%. The pig price has fallen below the industry's break - even line, and the breeding side is in a deep - loss range. The price of piglets and sows also declined, and the price of culled sows decreased by 1.17% week - on - week [19][22][29]. 3.1.3. Spread Situation - The futures and spot prices of pigs declined together this week. The basis was weak at a low level, and as of March 20, the pig basis was reported at - 350 yuan/ton. The spread between standard and fat pigs continued to narrow, reaching - 0.64 yuan/kg [33][36]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: As of the end of January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.58 million, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.08%. In February, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms changed little [42]. - **Pig Inventory**: As of the end of January 2026, the national pig inventory was 429.02 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. In February, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 1.79% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.36% month - on - month. The inventory in March may continue to increase [48]. - **Pig Slaughter**: In February, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 12.95% month - on - month, while that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.85% month - on - month. The overall slaughter pressure in March is still high [57]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: Last week, the average slaughter weight of三元 pigs increased slightly to 123.28 kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 kg [62]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Slaughtering Enterprises' Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises rebounded slightly to 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.92% [66]. - **Frozen Product Storage Rate and Fresh Sales Rate**: Last week, the fresh sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 80.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the frozen product storage rate was 18.72%, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [71]. 3.2.3. Cost - Profit Situation - **Self - Breeding and Purchasing Piglets Profit and Loss**: As of March 20, the average loss per head in the self - breeding mode was 286.53 yuan, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets was 177.96 yuan [77]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The current pig - grain ratio is 4.15, which is in the first - level early - warning range of excessive pig price decline. The industry is in a deep - loss state, and the elimination of inefficient production capacity is expected to accelerate [80]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In the short term, although the policy control signal has repaired the market's pessimistic sentiment, the current supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental pattern has not changed, and the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [8][81][82]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Single - Side**: In the short term, adopt a weak - oscillation strategy and pay attention to the slaughter rhythm; in the medium term, track the progress of production capacity reduction and layout opportunities for cycle reversal. - **Arbitrage**: None - **Options**: None [9][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the macro - aspect, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has led to a rise in global shipping costs, pushing up the import cost of iron ore. The negotiation deadlock between major mines and mineral resource groups has intensified the structural shortage of iron ore at ports. With strong inflation expectations and import supply disruptions, iron ore prices may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the overall price center of iron ore is expected to rise [5][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore 2605 contract rose 0.06% [4]. 3.2 Important Market Information - US officials revealed that the Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional marines to the Middle East, while Trump insists not to send US troops into Iran. Fed Governor Waller planned to vote for a rate cut in this week's central bank meeting due to unexpected unemployment in February, but decided to be more cautious until the impact of the Iran war becomes clear [15]. 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of February 2026, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 9,763.79 million tons, a decrease of 2,201.21 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.34 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton from the previous month. The iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 5,231.4 million tons, a decrease of 879.8 million tons from the previous month; the shipment volume from Brazil was 2,293.7 million tons, an increase of 404.6 million tons from the first half of the month [18][20]. 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, and the steel mill profitability rate also increased [5][30][32]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.18%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a month - on - month increase of 2.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.17%; the steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83%; the average daily hot metal output was 228.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.95 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 8.11 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17,098.40 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89.12 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 320.97 million tons, an increase of 3.07 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 100, a decrease of 10. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17,814.18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 133.14 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 335.92 million tons, an increase of 3.59 million tons [30][32]. 3.6 Future Outlook - Due to geopolitical conflicts and supply - side issues, iron ore prices may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the price center is expected to rise [5][33]. 3.7 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Treat it with a mid - term low - buying and volatile - bullish approach. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Buy the bull spread strategy of iron ore options [5][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran was the main factor boosting methanol. Methanol futures continued to rise significantly, with the methanol weighted closing at 2,763 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, an 8.01% increase from the previous week [6][13]. - The domestic methanol supply is still under pressure, with production slightly decreasing and the operating rate remaining high. The downstream olefin operating rate is stable and improving, and other main downstream sectors have also improved. However, due to the sharp rise in methanol prices, downstream demand has decreased [8]. - The inventory of methanol sample enterprises and the volume of orders to be delivered have both decreased, indicating a recovery in downstream demand after the Spring Festival. The port methanol inventory has significantly decreased, and the reduction in methanol imports due to the US - Iran conflict has gradually realized the expected benefits [8]. - The profit of methanol enterprises has significantly improved. The cost support of raw material thermal coal is weak, while the price of methanol has risen significantly, and the profitability of various production processes has improved [28]. - The future trend of methanol depends on the geopolitical situation, especially the navigation issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem is not solved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted [9]. - In the short - term, methanol is likely to continue to be strong, and long - position operations in methanol futures and buying methanol call options can be considered [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, affected by the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, methanol futures continued to rise significantly. The methanol weighted closed at 2,763 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, an 8.01% increase from the previous week [6][13]. - Spot: In the port market, the arrival volume of foreign vessels decreased, and the port methanol inventory entered the destocking channel. The port methanol market fluctuated widely at a high level. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,460 to 2,900 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,500 to 3,000 yuan/ton. In the inland market, the price rose significantly, driven by geopolitical emotions and supported by factors such as enterprise destocking, downstream demand recovery, etc. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranged from 2,003 to 2,185 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2,325 to 2,730 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260306 - 0312), China's methanol production was 2,013,855 tons, a decrease of 3,610 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week [14]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of March 12, the olefin operating rate was stable with a slight decline in some areas; the operating rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde all increased to varying degrees [18]. - Inventory: As of March 11, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, a 5.30% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, a 10.10% decrease. The port sample inventory was 1,312,800 tons, a decrease of 130,700 tons from the previous period, a 9.05% decrease [20][23]. - Profit: Last week (20260306 - 0312), the cost support of raw material thermal coal was weak, while the price of methanol rose significantly. The profitability of various production processes improved. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 34.60 yuan/ton, a 118.69% increase from the previous period [28]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: Next week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may be more than that of overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0267 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 90.72%, with an increase in production [30]. - Downstream Demand: The olefin operating rate is expected to be stable; the dimethyl ether and formaldehyde supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may rise; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to be flat; the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to have little change [31][32][34]. - Inventory: It is expected that the inland factories and ports will continue to destock. The arrival volume of foreign vessels at the port is still low, and the port inventory may continue to decline [34]. - Overall: The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol have not improved significantly. The support mainly comes from the geopolitical tension. The subsequent trend of methanol needs to closely follow the guidance of geopolitics and crude oil [34].