1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's core contradiction is that the marginal benefits on the supply side are insufficient to reverse the overall expectation of oversupply, and the demand side fails to provide effective impetus, leading to weak upward price momentum. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue the trend of bottom - building through oscillations [9][34]. - In the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to conduct range trading, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures fluctuated between 1,184 - 1,235 yuan/ton. As of the close of the white - trading session on February 6, 2026, the main contract SA2605 of soda ash futures dropped 14 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.16%, closing at 1,190 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of February 5, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 774,300 tons, a 0.88 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decline of 1.12%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 83.25%, down 0.94% from the previous value of 84.19% [7][10]. - Among them, the production of light soda ash was 360,300 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 414,000 tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 88.21%, a 0.78% decrease; the capacity utilization rate of combined - production process was 77.23%, a 2.58% increase; the overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons or more was 86.47%, a 1.85% decrease [12]. 3.2.2 Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,581,100 tons, a 20,700 - ton increase from Monday, a rise of 1.33%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 835,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 746,100 tons, an increase of 23,200 tons [8][15]. - Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 36,900 tons, a rise of 2.39%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash increased by 6,900 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash increased by 30,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory decreased by 29,770 tons, a decline of 15.85% [15]. 3.2.3 Shipment - As of February 5, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 737,400 tons, a 2.98% decrease from the previous week. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 95.23%, a 1.82 - percentage - point decrease [17]. 3.2.4 Profit - As of February 5, 2026, the theoretical profit of the combined - production process of soda ash in China was - 29 yuan/ton, a 9.43% decrease from the previous week. The price of raw - material mine salt remained stable, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upward, the cost side strengthened, while the market price of soda ash was weak and stable, resulting in a narrow decline in the profit of the combined - production process [20]. - The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process of soda ash was - 88.80 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week. The price of raw - material sea salt remained stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, the cost side strengthened slightly, and the price of soda ash was weak and stable, leading to a narrow decline in the profit of the ammonia - soda process [23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry Output - As of February 5, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 149,800 tons, a 0.79% decrease from the 29th. The weekly output of national float glass from January 30 to February 5, 2026, was 1,055,800 tons, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week and a 3.16% decrease from the same period last year [26]. 3.3.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53,064,000 weight boxes, a 500,000 - weight - box increase from the previous week, a rise of 0.95%, and a 11.77% decrease from the same period last year [29]. - The inventory days were 23.1 days, a 0.3 - day increase from the previous period [29]. 3.4 Price Changes - Various product prices showed different trends. For example, the price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal increased by 4 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; the price of some regional light and heavy soda ash decreased, and the price of float glass decreased by 1 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract declined by 4.1%. The negative feedback of finished products on raw materials needs to be repaired. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment demand of steel mills has basically ended. The commodity market has been highly volatile recently, and there is strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to observe cautiously. For the operation strategy, it is advised to take a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [4][5][33][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - In January 2026, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index was 51.2%, maintaining an expansion trend. Rio Tinto Group withdrew from the negotiation to acquire Glencore due to a failure to reach an agreement on valuation. Last week, in the commodity futures market, except for a 8.44% increase in gold prices, other major commodity futures prices declined, with tin having the highest decline of 9.24%. In the global stock market, Chinese and US stocks generally declined, while European stocks rose. China's Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest decline of 5.76%, and France's CAC 40 Index had the highest increase of 2.5%. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 97.68, up 0.55%. In late January, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel - producing enterprises was 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decline from the previous period; the steel inventory was 14.71 million tons, an 8.8% decline from the previous ten - day period and a 4.0% increase from the beginning of the year [14] 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 71.393 million tons, an increase of 9.544 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 27.635 million tons, a decrease of 3.328 million tons from the first half of the month [19][23] 3.3 Demand - side Situation - The report mentions the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the profitability of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [24][26][30] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a 0.53% increase from the previous week and a 1.55% increase year - on - year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.69%, a 0.22% increase from the previous week and a 0.07% decrease year - on - year. The steel - mill profitability was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a 12.13% decrease year - on - year. The daily hot - metal output was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 0.006 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.00014 million tons year - on - year. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 171.4071 million tons, an increase of 1.1845 million tons from the previous week; the daily port - clearance volume was 3.4108 million tons, an increase of 0.0877 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 111, an increase of 5. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 179.1468 million tons, an increase of 1.5642 million tons from the previous week; the daily port - clearance volume was 3.5758 million tons, an increase of 0.0987 million tons. Due to the threat of a hurricane, several major iron - ore export ports in Western Australia are clearing [31][32] 3.5 Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - The negative feedback of finished products on raw materials needs to be repaired. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment demand of steel mills has basically ended. The commodity market has been highly volatile recently, and there is strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to observe cautiously. The operation strategy is to wait and see for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [33][34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance, with the methanol weighted closing at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, but it may be supported by the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - level, geopolitics, and crude oil. It is suggested to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, boosted by the relatively strong port methanol, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance. The methanol weighted closed at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. - Spot: Import apparent demand was weak last week. Port methanol inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and the market tradable volume was high with an upper limit. Affected by the unstable international situation and positive macro - level, the market fluctuated and trended stronger. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with enterprises focusing on reducing inventory by lowering prices before the festival. The price in the Ordos northern line in the main production area ranged from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2100 - 2130 yuan/ton [14] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260123 - 0129), China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [15] - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The average weekly operating rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased to 30.48%, a decrease of 13.90 percentage points from the previous week. - Dimethyl Ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The overall capacity utilization rate increased. - Chlorides: The operating rate of methane chlorides was 76.04%, with an increase in overall production and capacity utilization rate. - Formaldehyde: The operating rate was 33.32%, with a decrease in overall capacity utilization rate [18][20] - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. - Ports: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1,472,100 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The inventory accumulation mainly occurred in the East China region [21][25] - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit improved slightly but still showed an overall loss. The week - average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 266.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 226.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The week - average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 61.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.00%. The week - average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.02% [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may be more than that of overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.98%, an increase from last week. - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry will increase slightly. - Dimethyl Ether: The Xinxiang Xinlianxin device is expected to stop production, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decrease. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. - Formaldehyde: The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. - Chlorides: The domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may continue to rise. - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 401,600 tons, continuing to decline. - Ports: The port methanol inventory is expected to decrease [30][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In February, supported by the macro - level and geopolitical factors, the cost side will boost the polyolefin market, which is likely to run strongly [6][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - level China - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 8.5%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month [9]. - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The sales area of new commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 931.17 billion yuan, a 13.4% decrease. The real estate development climate index was 91.45 [11][12]. - The overall economic recovery momentum is not strong. Although CPI and PPI improved in December 2025, real estate data continued to decline, and the manufacturing PMI in January 2026 fell below the 50% boom - bust line, indicating a weak economic recovery [14]. International - In December, the US CPI remained flat at 2.7% compared to the previous month. In the Eurozone, the CPI in December 2025 decreased by 0.2% to 1.9% compared to the previous month, facing greater economic recession pressure with lower inflation. Currently, inflation in both the US and the Eurozone has dropped to a relatively low level, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [15]. - On January 29, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that inflation is still high, mainly due to the increase in commodity - sector inflation driven by tariffs. If tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, the Fed may relax its policy. The US is likely to continue the interest - rate cut cycle in the future. The Eurozone benchmark interest rate remains at 2.15% [17][19]. - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy. The US manufacturing PMI in December decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9% compared to the previous month. The employment indicator improved last month, with the unemployment rate in December decreasing by 0.1% to 4.4% [20]. - The domestic real estate recovery is still difficult and requires further policy support. Domestic policies are likely to remain loose, and policies to boost the economy will continue to be introduced. In the US, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to decrease, and the demand to boost the economy will persist. The US is likely to continue to cut interest rates. Therefore, both the domestic and international macro - levels may improve [22]. Fundamental PE - In January, polyethylene supply increased. The capacity utilization rate was 83.94%, 0.38 percentage points higher than the previous period, and the output was 3.0594 million tons, a 1.68% increase. The increase in output was mainly due to the new production of a 300,000 - ton/year new device and a 30.23% decrease in maintenance losses [23]. - In January, polyethylene downstream demand declined slightly. The overall downstream industry starting rate was 39.86%, a 2.02% decrease from the previous month. The demand for northern greenhouse films basically ended, with the starting rate decreasing by 8.08% month - on - month. The follow - up of long - term agreement orders for packaging films was limited, and the continuity of customized orders was average, with a 3.04% month - on - month decrease [25]. - In January, the social inventory of polyethylene increased. At the end of January, the social sample warehouse inventory was 479,600 tons, a 45,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 39,000 - ton increase year - on - year. The cost and news boosted the market sentiment, downstream factories increased inventory replenishment, and trading among traders increased. Production enterprises actively sold to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventory and a slight increase in social sample warehouse inventory [28]. - In January, the supply - demand situation of polyethylene was still weak, with supply increasing and demand decreasing. However, due to the boost from the macro - level and cost side, the polyethylene price ran strongly [30]. PP - In January, PP supply decreased. The total output of polypropylene in China was 3.4474 million tons, a 110,500 - ton decrease from December 2025, a 3.11% decrease. Temporary maintenance of production enterprises due to cost and unexpected reasons increased, and there was no new capacity put into production, resulting in a significant decline in output [31]. - In January, PP downstream demand decreased. The apparent consumption of polypropylene in January was estimated to be 3.4774 million tons, a 4.01% decrease from the previous month. The starting rates of BOPP and modified PP increased by 0.69% and 1.59% respectively, mainly due to the increase in express packaging demand during the year - end New Year goods season and the impact of new - energy vehicle subsidy policies on modified demand. However, the starting rates of most general - purpose products decreased due to insufficient follow - up of new orders [33]. - In January, the inventories of polypropylene production enterprises and traders both decreased. At the end of January, the inventory of production enterprises was 400,900 tons, a 24.83% decrease from the end of the previous month. Traders' inventory was 183,400 tons, a 2.02% decrease from the end of the previous month. In January, the supply - demand of polypropylene decreased, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. However, due to the geopolitical boost, the prices of crude oil and propylene strengthened, which in turn boosted the PP price to run strongly [38]. Market Outlook PE - In February, there will be no new domestic polyethylene production enterprises. The output and imports are expected to decrease by 196,400 tons and 79,000 tons respectively, with a total supply decrease of 275,400 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand is expected to decrease by 389,300 tons. The demand enters the off - season, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen. Polyethylene will be in a situation of oversupply for most of the next three months. However, due to the boost from the macro - level and cost side, polyethylene is likely to still run strongly [39][41]. PP - In February, polypropylene enters the traditional off - season of demand, and the oversupply situation continues with inventory accumulation further intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. However, the macro - level policy is continuously favorable, and the cost side, especially the strong propane import cost, makes the polypropylene market regain the enthusiasm for price increase. Polypropylene may still run strongly [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the Shanghai aluminum futures main contract AL2603 was mainly fluctuating, ranging from around 24,030 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 26,185 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,851.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% (calculated on a comparable basis). Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 6.4% compared to the previous year. In December, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month - on - month [3][11][34] - By industry, investment in the primary industry was 95.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%; investment in the secondary industry was 1,773.68 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; investment in the tertiary industry was 2,982.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 2.6% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 2.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 9.1%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [12] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 14,673,417.92 tons, a decrease of 430,931.65 tons from the previous month [15] - As of December 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, a decrease of 127,200 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% in the current month. Domestic production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15][16] - As of December 2025, monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 387,400 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at an average level compared to the past five years [16] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons from the previous week [25] - As of January 30, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 495,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.76% [25] - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 742,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 31,000 tons, in Wuxi was 292,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 14,000 tons, in Foshan was 167,000 tons, in Tianjin was 36,000 tons, in Shenyang was 8,000 tons, in Gongyi was 155,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 8,000 tons [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to recover after a sharp decline, and the copper price may show a mainly volatile and upward - trending market. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [1][4][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, with the price range between approximately 97,730 yuan/ton and 114,160 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 7398.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profits decreased by 3.9%, joint - stock enterprises' profits decreased by 0.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profits increased by 4.2%, and private enterprises' profits remained the same as the previous year [9] - In 2025, the profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 3.0 times year - on - year, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 22.6%, the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.5%, and the power and heat production and supply industry increased by 13.9% [10] - On January 30, US President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75% [12] 3.3 Supply Side - As of December 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. As of January 27, 2026, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 5.18 cents/pound, and the rough - smelting fee was - 50 dollars/kiloton [13] - As of January 28, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumao was 101,525 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 89,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,130 yuan/ton, maintaining a relatively high level in the past five years [18] 3.4 Demand Side - As of December 31, 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2291 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [21] 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 30, 2026, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 233,004 tons, an increase of 7,067 tons from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 176,075 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 23.74%. As of January 30, 2026, the COMEX copper inventory was 577,724 tons, an increase of 2,591 tons from the previous trading day. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area was 98,900 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week [24] 3.6 Outlook - The influencing factors of copper price trends include Chinese policies, supply, demand, and inventory. Chinese policies and supply have a relatively high impact on copper prices [30] - Considering various factors, the copper price may show a mainly volatile and upward - trending market. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the domestic stock index futures market showed significant structural differentiation. The large - cap blue - chip futures were relatively resilient, while the small and medium - cap index futures generally declined. The market experienced a process from high - sentiment and high - volume trading at the beginning of the month to style switching and shock convergence under the influence of macro - data in the second half of the month. The market was affected by short - term economic data disturbances and high overall valuations. In the future, the market is expected to shift from emotional fluctuations to a fundamental verification stage, and market opportunities may be more in a structural form [6][34][35] - The decline in macro - data suppressed the overall risk appetite of the market, which was the direct catalyst for the style switching and the adjustment of small and medium - cap index futures. High valuations amplified market volatility, and more unexpected positive factors were needed to drive the market up [35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: In January, large - cap blue - chip futures were resilient, with the Shanghai 50 futures (IH) rising slightly monthly. Small and medium - cap index futures generally declined, with the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM) having significant monthly declines. The specific data of the main futures contracts are as follows: the closing price of the CSI 300 futures (IF) on January 30 was 4,711.0, with a monthly increase of 0.04% (1.8); the closing price of the Shanghai 50 futures (IH) was 3,074.0, with a monthly increase of 1.19% (36.2); the closing price of the CSI 500 futures (IC) was 8,362.4, with a monthly decrease of 3.42% (- 295.8); the closing price of the CSI 1000 futures (IM) was 8,260.6, with a monthly decrease of 3.01% (- 256.0) [6] - **Bond Futures**: In January, all bond futures declined. The closing price of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures on January 30 was 111.920, with a monthly decrease of 0.33% (- 0.37); the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 108.310, with a monthly increase of 0.10% (0.110); the closing price of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 105.890, with a monthly decrease of 0.01% (- 0.015); the closing price of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 102.394, with a monthly decrease of 0.02% (- 0.022) [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In January, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [8] - In January, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [12] - In January, the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down compared with the previous month [13] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of January 30, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 14.18 times, the percentile was 85.88%, and the PB was 1.49 times; the PE of the Shanghai 50 index was 11.72 times, the percentile was 85.1%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 37.93 times, the percentile was 87.65%, and the PB was 2.61 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 50.27 times, the percentile was 82.94%, and the PB was 2.68 times [15] 3.4 Other Data - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market return rate and the Treasury bond yield rate. There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [27] - **China - Buffett Index**: On January 30, 2026, the ratio of the total market value to GDP was 91.71%. The current "total market value/GDP" percentile in historical data was 91.68%, and in the data of the past 10 years, it was 95.67% [31] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - Macro - economically, the macro - economic data released in January affected market sentiment. The decline of PMI indices in manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and the composite index below the critical point indicated a short - term slowdown in economic activities, which triggered market concerns about the fundamentals and led to a shift of funds from high - elasticity sectors to defensive sectors. However, there were positive differentiations in the data: the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remained in a high - prosperity range, and the raw material and ex - factory price indices rebounded, indicating possible marginal improvement in corporate profit expectations [34] - In terms of valuation, although the market adjusted, the valuation pressure of major indices was still obvious. The valuation percentiles of the CSI 300 index and the Shanghai 50 index were at relatively high historical levels, the valuation percentile of the CSI 500 index was close to the historical high, and the ratio of the total market value to GDP was also in a high - percentile range. High overall valuations made the market more sensitive to negative information and limited the space for further rapid valuation increase [34] 3.6 Operational Suggestions - **Unilateral Trading**: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see. Before the macro - signals and valuation pressure are significantly improved, wait patiently for clearer stabilization signals and avoid blindly chasing up or bottom - fishing [36] - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the spread - convergence strategy of going long on IH and shorting IM. If the market's expectation of economic recovery turns moderate, the large - cap style with stable profits and relatively reasonable valuations may continue to show its defensive allocation value [36] - **Options**: For investors holding spot stocks, they can use the covered - call strategy to increase returns. At the same time, to prevent uncertain risks, they can consider buying an appropriate amount of out - of - the - money put options for downside protection [36]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱：多空交织，但"供强需弱"核心未变 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周纯碱主力合约价格在 1176-1230 元/吨之间运行。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日白盘收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2605 上涨 6 元/吨，周度涨 0.50%，报收 1204 元/吨。 【综合分析】 综合来看，"供强需弱"的核心矛盾未变，市场缺乏强劲的 上涨驱动，春节前的补库需求带来的支撑力度有限，价格或将继 续维持震荡，上方空间受限于基本面压力。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 一、纯碱供需情况 （一）产量、产能分析 截止 2026 年 1 月 29 日，当周国内纯碱 ...

研究报告 供需博弈叠加政策稳供 玉米市场延续区间震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 【行情复盘】 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 上周玉米期货盘面震荡偏弱运行，主力合约 C2603 在周初冲 高后承压回落，周截至上周五收盘，玉米期货主力合约 C2603 收 报 2271 元/吨，跌 0.09%。CBOT 玉米期货盘面震荡运行，截至上 周收盘报 428.25 美分/蒲式耳，跌 0.58%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 上周全国玉米周均价为 2332 元/吨，环比涨 6 元/吨；东北产 区玉米价格窄幅波动，价格重心小幅上移，截至上周五，哈尔滨 二等玉米价格为 2160 元/吨，较前周涨 5 元/吨；沈阳二等玉米价 格为 2280 元/吨，较前周涨 10 元/吨；华北产区玉米价格整体稳 定，深加工企业窄幅调价，截至上周五，山东潍坊寿光金玉米收 购 ...

摘要： 【行情复盘】 1 月玻璃主力合约价格在 1035-1171 元/吨之间运行。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日下午收盘，当月玻璃期货主力合约 FG2605 下跌 31 元/吨，月度涨跌-2.85%，报收 1056 元/吨。 【重点数据趋势】 1 月，浮法玻璃市场呈现下行趋势，全国浮法玻璃市场均价 1090 元/吨，环比跌 39 元/吨，跌幅 3.45%。 研究报告 玻璃月报 2026 年 1 月玻璃月度报告 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 研究员：侯帆 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 | | | | 电话：15117218912 | | | | 邮箱：houfan@qq.com | | | | 年 报告日期：2026 2 | 月 | 日星期一 2 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 1 月，浮法玻璃样本企业库存呈现 ...