研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期：2025 | 11 | 月 | 17 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.91%。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 基本面：国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 10 月，中国粗钢产量 7200 万 吨，同比下降 12.1%。1-10 月，中国粗钢产量 81787 万吨，同比下降 3.9%。 据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.81%，环比减少 0.3 ...

研究报告 供需错配未改，蛋价震荡磨底 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 上周鸡蛋期货盘面分化运行，近月合约弱势下跌；远月合约 周内创出阶段性新高，周后期开始回落；截至上周五收盘，鸡蛋 主力 JD2512 合约报收 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.26%；鸡蛋 JD2605 合约报收 3477 元/500 千克，跌 1.17%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.01 元/斤，主销区均价为 3.06 元/ 斤，全国商品代鸡苗均价 2.76 元/羽，环比上涨 0.36%，种蛋利 用率约为 50%，中大型企业维持刚性补栏，受蛋价小幅上涨带动， 老母鸡均价 4.14 元/斤，环比上涨 0.49%，样本市场周出栏量增 加，平均出栏日龄至 494 天，销区到货量分化，北京市场到货 95 车，环比增加 5 车，广东市场到货 580 ...

多空交织驱动不显，或将维持震荡运行 研究报告 橡胶周报 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡偏强，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，宏观方面，上周三美政府结束史上最长"停摆"， 提振市场情绪；国内公布 10 月经济"成绩单"，显示经济增速 有所放缓。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端存在支撑。 10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中国累计进口 天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率较 上周均微幅上升。上周全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终端车 市方面，终端乘用车 10 月销量同环比下滑，需求端利多驱动不 足。前 9 个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量累计同比小幅增长。随着后 续天气转冷，需求存在转弱预期。库存方面，上周上期所库存 较上周小幅下降；中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存环比均 小幅回升，其中青岛一般贸易库存累库幅度较大。 总体来看， ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly futures prices of oils and fats showed a divergent trend. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.88% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 0.18% to close at 8,644 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 4.09% to close at 9,923 yuan/ton [5][30]. - The current price of US soybeans is running strongly, and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has increased the uncertainty of the forward soybean import cost, providing bottom support for soybean oil and making it highly resistant to decline. The palm oil market mainly focuses on the change of supply and demand dynamics in the producing areas. The news of the implementation of Canada's biodiesel policy boosted market sentiment. Coupled with the continuous tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil, the market's bullish sentiment is high, and the futures price of rapeseed oil has increased significantly. In addition, the high inventory of soybeans at domestic ports and the slow recovery of the terminal catering demand for oils and fats will also suppress the upward space of oil prices. It is expected that oils and fats will run in a range [9][31][32]. Group 2: Important Information Palm Oil - On November 10, MPOB released the official supply and demand data of Malaysian palm oil for October. The production in October was 2.044 million tons, exports were 1.693 million tons, and inventory was 2.464 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.36% [6]. - The production in October increased 11% month-on-month, slightly lower than MPOA's estimate of 2.07 million tons. Exports in October increased 18.6% month-on-month, far exceeding the previous market estimate of 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. The inventory estimate was close to the initial estimates of Bloomberg and Reuters at 2.44 million tons but lower than the adjusted estimated inventory of 2.5 - 2.6 million tons after MPOA's production data adjustment [30]. Soybean Oil - USDA released the November supply and demand data. In this report, the carry-over stock of old US soybeans in the 2024/25 season was lowered from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the new balance sheet of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels/acre to 53 bushels/acre. The crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels, exports were lowered from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and the carry-over was lowered from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels. The report data was basically in line with market expectations, and the yield data was not surprising, with the impact on prices showing as the exhaustion of bullish factors. US soybeans rose 0.47% this week [7][31]. Group 3: Spot Analysis - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [10]. - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [11]. - As of November 13, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13]. Group 4: Other Data - As of November 7, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 88,000 tons to 1.37 million tons. On November 12, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 633,000 tons [17]. - As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports was 8,189,470 tons [20]. - As of November 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 304 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21]. - As of November 14, 2025, the basis of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was -54 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at an average level compared to the past five years [22]. - As of November 13, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and methanol is likely to continue its downward trend. In the short term, the demand for methanol downstream olefins is clearly weak, and there is no expectation of a contraction in domestic supply for the time being. Attention should be paid to import pressure. If the supply and demand remain weak, methanol will still operate weakly. A bear spread strategy can be considered [1][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply and demand of methanol continued to be weak, and methanol futures continued to fall. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol closed at 2,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.82% from the previous week. In the spot market, the high inventory situation at ports continued, and under high supply pressure, the port methanol market continued to decline. Although there was a short - term rebound due to the news of large - scale plant shutdowns inland, the rebound was limited, and the overall port price fluctuated and declined. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,050 to 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,080 to 2,190 yuan/ton. In the inland market, the supply - demand pattern remained weak. With the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous back - flow of port goods, market sentiment was significantly impacted. Later in the week, as some plants in the production area shut down and the external procurement demand for olefins increased, the market sentiment improved, and some low - priced goods were withheld from sale, with local prices stopping falling and rebounding. The price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranged from 1,965 to 2,005 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying, a downstream area, ranged from 2,155 to 2,223 yuan/ton [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - According to Longzhong Information, last week (October 31 - November 6, 2025), China's methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, an increase of 26,860 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% [15] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: - Olefins: The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted. The load of Luxi in Shandong was at a low level, while the load of Hengyou in Xinjiang increased. After offsetting, the industry's operation continued to decline. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 82.97%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points [17] - Dimethyl ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The Lianxin plant was shut down after a short - term operation, and other plants had no shutdown or maintenance plans. The loss was greater than the recovery, so the overall capacity utilization rate declined [17] - Glacial acetic acid: Last week, the second - phase plant of Huayi in Guangxi malfunctioned and shut down, and Shunda reduced its load. Other plants maintained their previous loads, so the load continued to decline [17] - Chlorides: The operation rate of methane chlorides last week was 63.54%. Although some plants increased their loads, some plants in Luxi, Shandong and Huatai in Dongying shut down, and the plant of Dongyue in Shandong reduced its load. The overall capacity utilization rate still showed a downward trend [19] - Formaldehyde: The operation rate last week was 41.75%. The Wende Cheng plant increased its load, and the recovery was greater than the loss, so the overall capacity utilization rate increased [19] 2.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.75%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57% [21] - As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The visible unloading of foreign vessels last week was 232,000 tons, and the invisible unloading was 113,800 tons, with some unloading not yet included. The提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu was weak, while the demand in Zhejiang remained stable. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly. In Guangdong, both foreign and domestic vessels arrived at the port. With the stable demand of local and surrounding downstream industries, the提货 from mainstream storage areas increased, and the inventory decreased. In Fujian, foreign vessels continued to unload, and there were still some vessels being unloaded not yet included in the inventory. With the rigid demand consumption of downstream industries, the inventory also decreased [23] 2.4 Profit - According to Longzhong Information, last week (October 31 - November 6, 2025), the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples continued to be poor, and the profitability of each route continued to be squeezed. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 218.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 42.06%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 304.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74.73%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 286.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99%; the average weekly profit of methanol made from coke oven gas in Hebei was 149.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 27.32%; the average weekly profit of methanol made from natural gas in the southwest was - 314.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.77%. With the gradual release of seasonal demand, the coal price has gradually risen recently, and the cost of methanol has increased accordingly. In addition, the gas price was raised as scheduled in early November, and the cost pressure of gas - to - methanol has also increased. The weak supply and demand of methanol are prominent, and the overall willingness to hold goods is weak, suppressing the price decline. Therefore, the profitability of methanol production by various processes continues to be squeezed [25] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, there may be more restarts than overhauls of domestic methanol plants. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0084 million tons this week, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from last week [30] - Downstream demand for methanol: - Olefins: Hengtong in Shandong is expected to shut down, and the loads of enterprises in the northwest and east are expected to increase. After offsetting, the industry's operation will decline slightly [32] - Dimethyl ether: There are no overhaul plans for dimethyl ether plants this week. If there are no unexpected shutdowns or startups of other plants, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat [32] - Glacial acetic acid: It is expected that the Thorpe plant will restart after maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [33] - Formaldehyde: After the restart of the Wende Cheng plant this week, it will continue to operate stably. Other plants have no shutdown or overhaul plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly [33] - Chlorides: Some previously shut - down plants may restart this week, and the overall capacity utilization rate may increase [34] - Inventory: The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 378,700 tons this week, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Some large plants in the production area shut down unexpectedly last week, resulting in a decrease in supply. At the same time, the external procurement demand for olefins provided support, and enterprises in most regions sold goods at a discount, driving an improvement in signing. Under the combined effect of supply and demand factors, it is expected that the inventory of sample enterprises will decrease slightly this week. In terms of port inventory, it is expected that the visible unloading volume of foreign vessels will be high, and the port methanol inventory may continue to accumulate next week. The unloading speed of foreign vessels should be specifically monitored. Overall, the supply and demand of methanol remain loose, there is no substantial positive driving force for the fundamentals, and methanol is likely to remain weak in the short term [34]

研究报告 铜周报 美联储内部意见不统一，沪铜或震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 10 日星期一 摘要： 【基本面分析】 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 美联储理事米兰表示，预计美联储将在 12 月降息。并表示， 他想以每步 50 个基点的幅度达到中性利率，许多同事则希望以每 步 25 个基点的幅度调整。CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 62.5%，维持利率不变的概率为 37.5%。全球铜供给和铜需求均处于高位，铜供需基本平衡。铜冶 炼加工费小幅上升，但仍处于历史最低位。9 月份，汽车产量同 比继续增长，空调产量同比出现下降。沪铜库存小幅下降，库存 水平处于近年来适中位置。COMEX 铜库存继续大幅增长。 【后市展望】 铜价或以震荡趋势为主。沪铜套利机会有限。期权合约建议 观望为主。 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜供需变化 超预期。 本报告中所 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 | 年 | 月 | 10 | 日星期一 | 11 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约下跌 4.58%。 基本面：海关总署数据显示，10 月铁矿砂及其精矿进口 1.1 亿吨，1-10 月，我国进口铁矿砂 10.29 亿吨，同比增加 0.7%，进口均价同比下跌 10.7%。 据 mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.13%，环比增加 1.38%，同 ...

研究报告 新粮上市与政策托底，玉米市场延续震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周玉米期货主力合约盘面震荡偏强运行，成交量与持仓量 同步放大，市场情绪由弱转强，截至上周五收盘，玉米主力合约 C2601 收报 2149 元/吨，涨 0.33%，成交量 369,190 手，持仓量 457973 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 10 日星期一 上周玉米价格整体区域分化，周度均价 2207 元/吨。东北地 区走势不一，整体稳定，局部价格如沈阳出现 30 元/吨下调；华 北价格先扬后抑，山东寿光收购价上涨 52 元/吨。销区市场波动 差异化，成都价格下跌 30 元/吨而南通上涨 50 元/吨。南北港口 价格则普遍上涨，锦州、鲅鱼圈平舱价及蛇口、漳州港自提价均 有 10-30 元/吨不等的涨幅。 【后市展望】 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. Looking ahead, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. Overall, considering the weakening of the macro - and fundamental aspects and the seasonal inventory accumulation, it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber futures fluctuated between 14,740 - 15,170 yuan/ton, first declining and then rising, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on November 7, 2025, it closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 90 points or 0.6% for the week [14]. 现货价格 - As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,400 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,030 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly last week. As of November 7, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, narrowing 155 yuan/ton from last week [26]. Important Market Information - The US federal government's "shutdown" from October 1 to November 6 has broken the historical record, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. The increase in US ADP employment in October has added uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate cut. There are also mixed signals in the US employment situation, with different data showing different trends. The Fed's internal differences on interest - rate cuts are intensifying. High - frequency economic data such as the US ISM service and manufacturing PMIs have different performances. In addition, there are developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the performance of the new energy vehicle and traditional vehicle markets in China is also reported [30][31][33]. Supply - Side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's increased slightly, India's increased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, and China's increased slightly. The total production in September 2025 was 1.0353 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons or 4.89% from the previous month, with the growth rate continuing to decline slightly. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in September 2025 was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [39][44][48]. Demand - Side Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly production of tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month. With the weather getting colder, there is an expectation of weakening demand [55][59][62]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 118,970 tons, down 1,930 tons from last week. As of November 2, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons or 1.6%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%, with the bonded area inventory decreasing by 0.58% and the general trade inventory increasing by 4.36% [83]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak supply season. The raw material prices in Yunnan are basically stable, and the rainfall in Hainan has limited improvement, affecting the tapping volume. The downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the raw material prices are weakly stable. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly year - on - year. - Demand side: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall inventory fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tires continuously accumulating inventory and all - steel tires turning to inventory accumulation again. With the weather getting colder, the demand for all - steel tire replacement markets will weaken further, and the demand for semi - steel tires will also slow down. The automobile production and sales in September increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The tire export volume in September decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to September increased year - on - year. - Inventory side: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, with a relatively large increase in the general trade inventory in Qingdao [84][85]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. In the future, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to be followed include Sino - US trade relations, the progress of anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather disturbances and raw material output in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [86][87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, use an interval - trading approach, and aggressive traders can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [88][89].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The negative news from the overseas producing areas has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for more information, especially the rhythm of China's soybean purchases from the US. [31] - Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to stop increasing and decline, and with cost support, soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline. The narrowing price difference between palm oil and soybean oil improves the cost - effectiveness of palm oil. [31] - The pessimistic sentiment in the edible oil market has priced in short - term negatives, but the core contradictions remain. The high - yield of palm oil is not sustainable, and the expansion of biodiesel demand is a definite trend. Soybean oil has solid cost support, and the domestic inventory pressure can be adjusted through the import rhythm. Although rapeseed oil has high policy risks, the de - stocking trend remains under the background of global rapeseed production reduction. The edible oil sector is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.69% to close at 8,184 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 1.19% to close at 8,660 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.18% to close at 9,533 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: In October, due to more working days and better weather, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase 6% month - on - month to 1.95 million tons, with a significantly higher increase than the historical average. The estimated export volume is 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. Despite increased domestic consumption, the palm oil inventory is expected to accumulate to over 2.4 million tons at the end of October. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.26%. [7][30] - **Soybean oil**: China's soybean imports in October reached a record high for the month, at 9.48 million tons, a 17.2% increase from 8.09 million tons in the same period last year. From May to October this year, China's soybean imports repeatedly hit new highs. In the first 10 months, China's soybean imports increased 6.4% year - on - year to 95.68 million tons. However, imports in October decreased 26.3% compared to September, reflecting a typical seasonal pattern. US soybeans rose 0.20% this week. [7][31] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [12] 3.4 Other Data - As of October 31, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 1.462 million tons. On November 5, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 19,000 tons to 620,000 tons. [16] - As of November 6, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7,956,210 tons. [19] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 172 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [20] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 192 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 286 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [23] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is basically the same as the core view of the report, emphasizing the price trends of palm oil and soybean oil this week, and the future market outlook for the edible oil sector. [30][31]