Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend, with reduced price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the main contract CU2510 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and weakening market, with prices ranging from around 79,505 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 81,530 yuan/ton [9]. - Last week, LME copper futures prices showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with contract prices running around 9,919 - 10,192 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2宏观面 - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year [4][16][52]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 - bp rate cut by the Fed in October is 87.7%, and the probability in December is 80.9%. The expected number of rate cuts within the year is 2 [4][52]. 3.3现货分析 - As of September 19, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 79,970 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 80,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 80,000 yuan/ton, 79,970 yuan/ton, 80,130 yuan/ton, and 80,080 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - As of September 19, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained at around a premium of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [21]. 3.4供需情况 - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 12, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.42 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.16 cents/pound [28]. - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the monthly automobile output in China was 2.7524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [34]. 3.5库存情况 - As of September 19, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, an increase of 11,760 tons from the previous week. As of September 18, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 9.67%. As of September 18, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 315,206 tons, an increase of 2,364 tons from the previous trading day [40]. - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, the inventory in the Guangdong region was 21,000 tons, and the inventory in the Wuxi region was 29,400 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [40]. 3.6后市展望 - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. Price fluctuations will be reduced, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53].

研究报告 铁矿周报 铁矿或延续震荡偏强走势 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 9 22 | 月 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周 i2601 合约上涨 1.13%。 一、盘面分析 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.98%， 环比增加 0.15%，同比增加 5.75%；钢厂盈利率 58.87%，环比减 少 1.30%，同比增加 48.91%；日均铁水产量 241.02 万吨，环比增 加 0.47 万吨，同比增加 17.19 万吨，全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库 存总量 13801.08 万吨，环比下降 48.39 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly due to high port inventories and expected high import supplies. The methanol spot market performed well driven by the favorable inland market and positive macro - expectations. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Before the substantial destocking of methanol ports driven by improved supply - demand, the methanol futures price may fluctuate within a range, and a short strangle strategy can be considered [6][8][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,367 yuan/ton, down 1.41% from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol inventories hit a record high, but prices were slightly stronger due to macro - benefits and news. In the inland market, downstream buying sentiment was positive due to increased olefin external procurement and low enterprise inventories [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a 2.37% week - on - week decline. More devices were under maintenance than restarted [13][15] - **Downstream Demand**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products showed different trends. For example, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 64.69%, up 0.31 percentage points from the previous week [18] - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 10, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.31% week - on - week decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons from the previous period, a 3.91% week - on - week increase [22] - **Port Inventory**: As of September 10, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, an 8.59% week - on - week increase. Ports continued to accumulate inventory [24] - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples improved. The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased, and the losses of natural - gas - based methanol narrowed [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to restart than be under maintenance. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.9449 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.71%, an increase from last week [31] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rates of downstream products are expected to change. For example, the olefin industry's operating rate is expected to rise, while the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to decrease slightly, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [32][34] - **Overall Trend**: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September is positive for rubber prices. There is some support on the supply side, but there is still supply pressure later. The demand side shows good performance, and inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will likely maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8][9][87][88]. - The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. For the operation strategy, consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [9][90][91]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2601, ranged between 15,670 - 16,350 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated downward with a relatively large overall decline. As of the close on the afternoon of September 12, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 505 points for the week, a decrease of 3.09% [14]. Spot Price - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,170 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][22]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with last week. As of September 12, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,005 yuan/ton, narrowing 170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined compared with last week [26][28]. Important Market Information - US economic data: The US non - farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 from March last year to March this year. The August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The August CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000. The September Michigan consumer confidence index was at a new low since May. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates by 100 basis points starting from September [29][30]. - European economic data: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, indicating that the inflation - reduction process in the eurozone has ended [30]. - Chinese economic data: In August, China's core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat. The total import and export value in August increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The automobile production and sales in August increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, the automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [32][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - Natural rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the production in Vietnam increased significantly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% compared with the previous month [40]. - Synthetic rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [44][48]. - Tire imports: As of July 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [52]. Demand - side Situation - Tire enterprise operating rates: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.46%, an increase of 5.99% compared with last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.59%, an increase of 5.81% compared with last week [54]. - Automobile production and sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The monthly sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1% [58][61]. - Heavy - truck sales: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26% [67]. - Tire exports: As of July 31, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 151,740 tons, a decrease of 10,490 tons compared with last week. As of September 7, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons or 0.57%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 793,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 465,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.66% [84]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Currently, the global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recently, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, boosting raw material prices. In domestic producing areas, the new rubber supply rhythm has slowed down. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years [85]. - Demand side: Last week, enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, and the operating rates of tire enterprises significantly rebounded. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, with a high operating rate; the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly, and downstream stocking was cautious. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [85]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [86]. Future Outlook - Macro aspect: The significant downward revision of US non - farm payrolls and the unexpected decline in US PPI inflation data last week have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's core CPI in August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month; the PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat, ending the eight - month downward trend [87]. - Fundamental aspect: On the supply side, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, and the new rubber supply rhythm in domestic producing areas has slowed down. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, and the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. The cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export data increased slightly year - on - year. In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly, with a slightly larger depletion rate [87]. Views and Operation Strategies - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [90]. - Operation strategy: Consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand but with marginal improvement. The supply - side pressure reappeared as weekly production and capacity utilization increased. The demand was dull, with downstream industries purchasing on a just - in - time basis. Although the enterprise inventory decreased, the absolute level was still high, and the profit situation worsened. The core market contradiction lies in the game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, the market lacks a clear directional driver and is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern. Key factors to watch include the sustainability of inventory reduction, the strength of downstream demand recovery, and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts. [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 ranged from 1,252 to 1,303 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. As of September 12, 2025, the main contract SA2601 fell 12 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.92%, closing at 1,290 yuan/ton. [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons or 1.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.29%, up 1.07% from the previous value. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.84%, up 2.43% month - on - month, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 77.40%, down 1.97% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.30%, up 0.83% month - on - month. [7][10][12] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons or 1.40% from the previous Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 763,000 tons, down 1,100 tons month - on - month, and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.0345 million tons, down 24,500 tons month - on - month. [8][14] - **Shipment**: On September 11, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 785,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%. The overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points month - on - month. [17] - **Profit**: As of September 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was - 36.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of co - production process soda ash (double - ton) was - 54.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.50 yuan/ton. [20][24] 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry**: As of September 11, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, a 0.38% increase from the 4th. The weekly output was 1.1212 million tons, a 0.38% month - on - month increase and a 4.49% year - on - year decrease. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million heavy boxes or 2.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94%. The inventory days were 26.3 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period. [28][29] 3.4 Spot Market Situation - Domestic soda ash mainstream market prices were mostly stable, with only a few regions showing price changes. For example, the price of light soda ash in the northwest region decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 2%, and the price of heavy soda ash in the northwest region also decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 2%. The price of float glass increased by 8 yuan/ton or 0.69%, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 71 yuan/ton or 3.30%. [37][38][39] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - **Analysis**: The soda ash market last week was characterized by weak supply and demand with marginal improvement. The core contradiction was the game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, the market is expected to continue oscillating. [40] - **Operation Suggestions**: - **Single - side**: In the short term, pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities after a sharp price decline, but be cautious and set strict stop - losses. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: For hedging, consider constructing a bear spread strategy. [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2601 contract rose by 0.03%. Although the recent fundamentals of rebar are relatively weak, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may improve, and the steel price may still have the possibility of volatile rebound in the future [4][34] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Not detailed in the report - **Spot Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan/ton, also unchanged [13] - **Basis and Spread**: Not detailed in the report Important Market Information - On September 10, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing China's opposition to the US's negative actions. - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year (previous value 0%), and was flat month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and turned flat from a 0.2% decline month - on - month. - In August 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 5.4516 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 8.5618 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 9.9% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [17] Supply - side Situation - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, a month - on - month increase of 3.43% and a year - on - year increase of 6.20%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a month - on - month increase of 4.39% and a year - on - year increase of 6.29%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1171 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1717 million tons. - According to My Steel Network data, last week, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0675 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0471 million tons; the social inventory was 4.8723 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1857 million tons. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.5724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0341 million tons; the total inventory was 15.1461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1391 million tons; the apparent demand was 8.4333 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.155 million tons. - Zhaogang Network data showed that as of the week of September 10, the national building materials output was 4.7872 million tons, a decrease of 0.0567 million tons from the previous week; the mill inventory was 4.4837 million tons, a decrease of 0.1639 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 5.8199 million tons, an increase of 0.0962 million tons from the previous week; the total inventory was 10.3036 million tons, a decrease of 0.0677 million tons from the previous week [31][32][33] Demand - side Situation - As of August 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.1, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the current value of the Lang Steel Iron and Steel Circulation Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.8, unchanged month - on - month [23] Fundamental Analysis - The same as the supply - side situation, including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, hot metal output, rebar output, inventory, and apparent demand data [31][32] 后市展望 - Although the recent fundamentals of rebar are relatively weak, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may improve, and the steel price may still have the possibility of volatile rebound in the future [34] Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3,100 yuan/ton and try to go long with a light position. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Choose the opportunity to sell the deep out - of - the - money put option strategy for rb2601 [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating and slightly upward trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [3][27] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 20,695 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,125 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. From January to August, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. In August, the national consumer price was flat month-on-month [10][11] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 2025, domestic bauxite imports increased compared with the previous month. As of September 11, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase from the previous period, and the total inventory remained at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [14] 4. Inventory Situation - As of September 12, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory increased compared with the previous week, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged from the previous trading day. As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased compared with the previous day [20] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - On September 11, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September was 89.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut was 10.9%. In August 2025, the national consumer price decreased year - on - year. Bauxite imports, alumina production capacity, and alumina inventory have all increased. Electrolytic aluminum production remains high, and its production capacity is continuously growing. Shanghai aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years [2][26] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating and slightly upward trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [3][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend, with limited price volatility and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2510 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,780 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,984 - 2,007 US dollars/ton [13] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [16] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of September 5, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 16,840 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,710 yuan/ton, 16,755 yuan/ton, and 16,725 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead remained at around - 125 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - In June 2025, the global lead mine output was 395.9 thousand tons, an increase of 15.7 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years. As of August 29, 2025, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 600 yuan/metal ton, 600 yuan/metal ton, and 300 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee in Kunming was 380 yuan/metal ton. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 62.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [26] 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of September 5, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 66,834 tons, an increase of 2,162 tons from the previous week. As of September 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 21.96% [34] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The US economy's growth rate is below the average level and shows few signs of acceleration. Multiple US industries face cost - rising pressure due to tariff policies. The manufacturing PMI and new orders index show slight improvements. Global lead mine output has increased, lead processing fees remain at a low level, lead output has decreased month - on - month, Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased and is at a moderate level in recent years, while LME lead inventory has continuously decreased and is at a high level in recent years [4][39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and methanol futures prices may fluctuate within a range. The spot price of methanol may perform strongly under the boost of the "Golden September" demand season, but overall, it is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term. A sell wide - straddle strategy can be considered [8][9][31]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - **Futures**: Under the pressure of rising port methanol inventory, the fundamentals are weak. However, boosted by positive macro - expectations, the methanol weighted price closed at 2,404 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 2.39% increase from the previous week [6][13]. - **Spot**: Port methanol continued to accumulate inventory last week, with limited upward price movement. The average price in the port market continued to decline. In the inland market, supply pressure increased, and prices weakened. The price range in Jiangsu was 2,200 - 2,270 yuan/ton, in Guangdong 2,220 - 2,260 yuan/ton, in Ordos North Line 2,042 - 2,057 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was 2,295 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,962,815 tons, an increase of 43,690 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a 2.07% increase. More units were restored than shut down [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed different trends. The overall MTO capacity utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly to 64.38%, while the capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde decreased [17][19]. - **Inventory**: As of September 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 341,100 tons, a 2.31% increase; the order backlog was 241,300 tons, an 11.20% increase. The port sample inventory was 1,427,700 tons, a 9.88% increase [21][23]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in production areas slightly narrowed, while that in consumption areas slightly expanded. The theoretical profits of coke oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol improved, but natural gas - to - methanol remained in a loss state [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more methanol units are expected to be shut down for maintenance than restarted. The estimated production is about 1.961 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.42%, a decrease from last week [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall demand is expected to show moderate growth. The capacity utilization rates of some industries such as formaldehyde and MTBE are expected to increase, while those of olefins, acetic acid, chloride, and dimethyl ether may decline [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to decrease slightly to 325,700 tons. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate as the arrival of foreign vessels remains stable [30]. - **Overall**: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. In the short - term, domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to continue the volatile trend due to the current ample supply of the domestic edible oil market and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations [9][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 1.10% to close at 8,450 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract rose 2.25% to close at 9,526 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.30% to close at 9,818 yuan/ton [5][30]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: From August 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 2.07%. The total palm oil production in August is estimated to be 1.85 million tons. Malaysian palm oil rose 1.64% [7]. - **Soybean oil**: Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record this year, benefiting from record - high production and strong Chinese demand. In August, China accounted for 84% of Brazil's total soybean exports, compared with an average of 75% in the past four years. US soybeans fell 2.49% this week [7]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of September 4, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at the average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of September 5, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of September 4, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of August 29, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 1.42 million tons. On September 3, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 67,000 tons to 601,000 tons [16]. - As of September 4, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,790,280 tons [20]. - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 224 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of September 5, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 146 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22]. - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 161 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom this week. The domestic soybean oil spot market remains in a situation of loose supply and demand, with limited consumption boost from the start of the school term. The inventory of soybean oil in oil mills continues to increase and is at a high level in recent years. The spot price adjusts with the market. The spot price of rapeseed oil has risen slightly. The domestic oil mill operating rate has remained low recently, and the production of rapeseed oil is limited. Coupled with Chinese enterprises' suspension of purchasing Canadian rapeseed, the market has a strong mentality of supporting prices. The commercial inventories of the three major domestic edible oils are at high levels in recent years, and the inventories of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil have all increased year - on - year, indicating sufficient supply in the edible oil market. The Sino - US economic and trade relations are still uncertain, and there are still uncertainties in the future supply of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [9][31].