Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the futures market showing a differentiated pattern. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A-share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors mostly rose, with shipbuilding, small metals, securities, diversified finance, and software development leading the gains, while glass fiber, engineering consulting services, and the banking sector leading the losses [2]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a differentiated trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.46%, 1.27%, 2.69%, and 3.40% respectively [2]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjust the assessment methods of "return on net assets" and "(state - owned) capital preservation and appreciation rate" [7]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the compilation plan of the ChiNext Composite Index on July 25, including introducing a monthly elimination mechanism for risk - warning stocks and an ESG negative elimination mechanism [7]. - As of July 12, 483 companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, of which 281 reported good news, accounting for 58.18%, and 155 are expected to have a net profit increase of over 100% [8]. - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan. This week, 42.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 10 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15 [8]. Valuation Analysis - As of July 11, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.34 times, the percentile was 72.35%, and the PB was 1.39 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.42 times, the percentile was 84.12%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.33 times, the percentile was 58.24%, and the PB was 2.18 times [9]. - Two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread are provided, one based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the other based on the dividend yield [15][17]. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a volatile upward trend, but there were obvious differences among varieties. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A - share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of rubber prices has returned to fundamentals with reduced influence from external geopolitical conflicts. The current rubber supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and the futures price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [8][84][85] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a slight decline overall. As of July 4, 2025, it closed at 14,005 yuan/ton, down 40 points or 0.28% for the week [14] - **Spot Price**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 19,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 14,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,250 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][21] - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly shrank. As of July 4, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The domestic price of natural rubber slightly declined last week, while the overseas price remained flat [24][27] Important Market Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: US non - farm payrolls in June significantly exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of a July interest rate cut. China's Caixin Services PMI in June was below expectations, but the China Logistics Prosperity Index continued to rise. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June reached its highest level since August 2022 [8][31] - **Automobile Market**: In June, China's heavy - truck sales recovered, and new energy vehicle sales increased. The 1 - 5 month cumulative export of Chinese tires increased slightly year - on - year. The inventory of tire enterprises was high, and the start - up rate decreased last week [33][35][53] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [39][44][48] Demand - side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the start - up rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.41%, down 7.64% from the previous week; the start - up rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.75%, down 1.89% from the previous week. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month [53][57][60] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,110 tons to 18,885 tons. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [81] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [82] - **Demand**: Last week, the start - up rate of tire enterprises decreased, downstream factories purchased on demand, and tire inventory reduction was slow. In June, heavy - truck sales recovered, and from January to May, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [82] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while China's social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [82] 后市展望 - The price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract fluctuated in a range last week, rising after falling and showing a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, the rubber supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigations, and Sino - US tariff changes [84] Operation Strategy - The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [85]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak. After the geopolitical tension eases, methanol returns to its fundamentals and is likely to continue its weak trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10][35]. Summary by Section 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price was 2,409 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The spot price of methanol in the port market mostly declined, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,450 - 2,840 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,420 - 2,470 yuan/ton [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a 3.45% drop from the previous week. Overall, the loss of production due to maintenance and reduction was greater than the recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products decreased. The average weekly operation rate of the olefin industry continued to decline, with the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 76.05%, a 4.08 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde also decreased [17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a 3.14% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.23% increase. The port sample inventory was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a 0.48% increase [22][25]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples weakened. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production narrowed, while the loss of natural - gas - based production slightly increased [28]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, there are more methanol plant overhauls than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be around 1.9162 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 85.03%, a decrease from last week [33]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's开工率 will continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde and chlorides is expected to decrease [34]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The port inventory is expected to change little [34][35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][4][34] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2508 of Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from around 17,090 yuan/ton to about 17,315 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of the LME lead futures contract was running around 2,034 - 2,073 US dollars/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11] 2. Spot Analysis - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,075 yuan/ton, 17,080 yuan/ton, and 17,085 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 4, 2025, the premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 900 yuan/metal ton, 800 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively [20] - As of May 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at an average level compared with the past five years [20] 4. Inventory Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the refined lead inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons from the previous week [26] - As of July 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.34% [26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The US non - farm payrolls report for June was unexpectedly much stronger than expected. The Fed may adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the Fed's interest rate cut process may be postponed [3][33] - The lead discount has slightly widened, and the lead processing fee is still in the bottom area [3][33] - Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][33] - The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][33]

研究报告 纯碱周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 纯碱供需矛盾 市场弱势持续 华龙期货投资咨询部 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约 SA2509 价格在 1219-1158 元/吨之间运 行，价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 18 元/吨，周度跌幅 1.51%，报收 1174 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率继续回落，截止到 2025 年 7 月 3 日，国内纯碱产量 70.90 万吨，环比下跌 0.77 万吨，跌幅 1.09%。 其中，轻质碱产量 31.31 万吨，环比减少 1.15 万吨。重质碱产量 39.59 万吨，环比增加 0.38 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 7 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存持续增长，截止到 2025 年 7 月 3 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent currently. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 0.03% [5] - **Spot Price**: The analysis involves the market price of rebar, but no specific price data is presented [11] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis content is provided Important Market Information - On July 4th, the research group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and taking multiple measures to stabilize the market [16] Supply - side Situation - In late June, according to CISA data, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 6.4% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [6][31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased by 3.24 tons week - on - week, the steel mill inventory decreased by 5.13 tons week - on - week, the social inventory increased by 1.34 tons week - on - week, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased by 4.17 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory decreased by 0.1 tons week - on - week [32] Demand - side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing manager index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [23] Fundamental Analysis - In late June 2025, the daily output of national crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous ten - day period, but increased compared with the beginning of the year, the same period last month, the same period last year, and the same period the year before last [31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased, the steel mill inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly [32] 后市展望 - Currently, the contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg futures market experienced intensified long - short battles last week. High egg - laying hen存栏 and adverse weather conditions put significant pressure on egg prices, but an increase in the number of culled chickens and rising procurement demand for cold - storage eggs provided support. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate. With the boost of the consumption peak season in the third quarter, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [8][59]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1. Trend Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of egg futures, JD2508, fluctuated last week. As of last Friday, it closed at 3,582 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a total trading volume of 125,885 lots, an open interest of 184,136 lots, and a weekly increase of 1.1% [5][12]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 2.70 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25%; in the main consuming areas, it was 2.76 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The price in the main producing areas first declined and then stabilized, while that in the main consuming areas showed a weakening trend [7][16]. - **Chick Price**: The chick price was generally weak last week. The average price of commercial - generation chicks in key national regions was 3.88 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.08%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 80% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: The price of old hens fluctuated strongly last week. The average price of old hens in representative markets in key producing areas was 4.65 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.65% [26]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Egg - laying Hen存栏**: As of June, the national egg - laying hen存栏 was about 1.27 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The supply was abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand would be further intensified [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in representative markets in the main producing areas decreased by 0.63% week - on - week and 17.52% year - on - year. It first weakened and then increased [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens last week was 529,200, a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, and the slaughter volume decreased with a slightly earlier slaughter age [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Arrival Volume in Consuming Areas**: As of last Thursday, the arrival volume in the Beijing market increased by 2.06% week - on - week, while that in the Guangdong market decreased by 20.03% week - on - week. The overall downstream consumption demand was average [45]. - **Sales Volume in Consuming Areas**: The egg sales volume last week was 5,928.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.56% [49]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in the production link last week was 1.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.52 days, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%. The overall inventory increased slightly [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The egg - laying hen breeding cost last week was 3.55 yuan per catty, remaining flat week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.85 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 25.00%. The egg - laying hen breeding loss further expanded [57]. 3.3. Market Outlook The egg futures market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. With the boost of the third - quarter consumption peak season, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [59]. 3.4. Operation Strategy Due to the short - term market uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. Continuously monitor the signals of capacity reduction and demand recovery in July [10][60].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Supply Tight, Center of Gravity Moving Up - **Report Date**: July 1, 2025 - **Researcher**: Yao Zhanqi - **Investment Advisory Business Qualification**: CSRC License [2012] No. 1087 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut cycle and increased uncertainties from Trump's trade policies and international situations, the influence of international and domestic macro - policies on the oil and fat market is significantly enhanced. With the overall tightening supply - demand situation, the center of gravity of oil and fat prices is expected to remain high [4][52]. - For palm oil, the global supply pattern in the second half of 2025 remains tight, with strong price support due to long - term supply growth bottlenecks from aging trees and short - term low inventory. However, there are uncertainties in demand due to Indonesia's biodiesel plan. As long as the accumulation of inventory in producing areas is not obvious, palm oil prices are expected to stay high [4][52]. - Regarding soybean oil, the global soybean supply pattern remains loose. A decrease in the 2025/26 US soybean planting area or adverse weather may bring new upward momentum to the soybean complex. Although the overall supply of soybean oil is relatively abundant, demand may increase significantly under the favorable US biodiesel policy, but the increase amount is uncertain [4][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 First - Half Year Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, the oil and fat market showed a differentiated trend under the influence of a weaker US dollar index and large fluctuations in crude oil prices. BMD palm oil declined continuously due to falling international crude oil prices and its own production and inventory accumulation. CBOT soybean oil fluctuated greatly due to the repeated US biofuel policy. Domestic palm oil weakened overall, while domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil strengthened [7]. - **First Stage (January - Mid - to - Late January 2025)**: The supply pressure of new Brazilian crops and the depreciation of the real led to a continuous decline in Brazilian soybean premiums. The soybean oil market was affected by pessimistic expectations of biodiesel policies, and palm oil lacked marginal positive factors, causing the entire oil - seed sector to decline [8]. - **Second Stage (Early February - End of March 2025)**: The unexpected positive USDA report at the beginning of the year, along with the relatively full - scale trading of the pessimistic expectations of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy, and the temporary strength of US soybean oil due to the cold wave in the US fuel market, laid the foundation for the rise in February. After the Spring Festival, soybean oil was strong due to import cost support, and palm oil was also strong due to low production and inventory in Malaysia and the approaching Ramadan [9]. - **Third Stage (April - End of May 2025)**: Palm oil oscillated between strong current conditions and weak expectations, with intense multi - empty games. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the US reciprocal tariff policy caused a systemic impact on the global financial market, leading to a decline in the three major oils. After sentiment stabilized, palm oil continued to oscillate [9]. - **Fourth Stage (June 2025 - Present)**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted oil prices, and the positive US RVO policy provided upward impetus to the oil and fat sector. However, the subsequent easing of the international situation led to a rapid decline in international crude oil prices and a corresponding drop in oil and fat prices. The market is waiting for more resonance factors in the third quarter to determine the direction [10]. 3.2 2025/2026 Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025/2026, both global vegetable oil production and consumption are increasing, but the increase in production is less than that in consumption. Imports and exports are both slightly increasing. The global vegetable oil ending inventory in 2025 may continue to decline, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will also continue to decrease, indicating a tightening supply - demand structure [20]. - Global oilseed production is expected to increase by 14.98 million tons to 692.25 million tons in 2025/2026. Pressing, imports, and exports will also increase, and the ending inventory will slightly increase by 1.95 million tons to 144.13 million tons, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropping to 24.82%. The pattern of global oilseed oversupply will continue [20]. - Global oil production will reach 235 million tons in 2025/2026, an increase of 6.49 million tons compared to the previous year. Consumption will increase by 5.35 million tons to 229.38 million tons. The ending inventory will increase by 0.14 million tons to 29.97 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 13.07%. The pattern of oversupply remains, but the supply is getting tighter [23]. 3.3 Palm Oil Market - Since 2016, the new planting area of oil palm trees in Malaysia and Indonesia has slowed down significantly, and the growth of palm oil production has entered a bottleneck. The global palm oil yield has been decreasing at a rate of 0.4% per year in the past decade, with an average annual decline of 2.07% in Malaysia and 0.35% in Indonesia. The average growth rate of global palm oil production in the past decade was only 2.8% [27]. - In 2025/2026, global palm oil production will reach 80.74 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons. Consumption is expected to reach 78.34 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons. The ending inventory will slightly increase by 0.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 19.21%, indicating a relatively tight supply [27]. - Indonesia and Malaysia are the main palm - oil producing countries, accounting for 83.0% of global production. Indonesia is also the largest consumer of palm oil. Other major consumer countries include India, China, and the EU [31][34]. 3.4 Soybean and Soybean Oil Market - In 2025/2026, global soybean production is expected to increase slightly by 6.04 million tons to 426.82 million tons. Consumption will increase significantly by 14.92 million tons to a record high of 424.15 million tons. The ending inventory will increase by 1.1 million tons to a record high of 125.3 million tons. The global soybean supply - demand situation is relatively loose [36]. - Global soybean oil production will increase by 2.4 million tons to 70.79 million tons in 2025/26. Consumption will increase by 2.26 million tons to 69.26 million tons. Imports and exports will decrease slightly, and the ending inventory will increase by 0.37 million tons to 6.5 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 9.4% [39]. - The main soybean oil - producing countries are China, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina, and their production is all increasing, which may put some pressure on soybean oil prices. On the consumption side, except for a slight decrease in India, the consumption of the top five consuming countries is increasing, which supports international soybean oil prices [40][44]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil Market - In 2025 - 26, global rapeseed production will increase by 4.51 million tons to 89.77 million tons. Imports and exports will decline, while pressing and consumption will increase. The ending inventory will increase by 0.2 million tons to 9.29 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 10.4%, indicating a relatively loose supply of rapeseed [46]. - Global rapeseed oil production will increase by 0.59 million tons to 34.55 million tons, and consumption will increase by 0.4 million tons to 34.65 million tons. Imports and exports will both increase. The ending inventory will decrease by 0.18 million tons to 2.87 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 8.3%, indicating a tight supply of rapeseed oil [49]. 3.6 Future Market Expectations and Concerns - Due to the large differences in market expectations for the number of Fed interest - rate cuts in 2025 and the uncertainties in Trump's trade policies and international situations, the influence of macro - policies on the oil and fat market is enhanced. With a tightening supply - demand structure, oil and fat prices are expected to remain high [52]. - For palm oil, focus on the inventory rhythm in producing areas. As long as inventory accumulation is not obvious, prices are expected to stay high. For soybean oil, pay attention to the US soybean planting area and weather conditions, as well as the implementation of the US biodiesel policy [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the egg market was in a trough with high supply and weak demand. Although there were signs of capacity reduction in June, the re - balance of supply and demand still needed time. In the short term, egg prices faced great pressure, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season in the third quarter, demand would recover and prices might bottom - out and rebound, though the increase would be limited and the price peak might not exceed last year's level [6][7][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of 2025 Egg Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - In the first half of 2025, the main egg futures contract showed a volatile downward trend, dropping below 3000 yuan in March. There were rebounds in March - April and May - June, but they were limited. As of June 30, the main JD2508 contract closed at 3566 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.68% increase [14] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - The egg spot market in China continued to weaken in the first half of 2025, with prices below the cost line. The average price in the main production areas dropped from 3.23 yuan/jin at the beginning of the year to 2.64 yuan/jin in mid - June, a cumulative decline of 18.3%. As of June 30, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, a 40% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price movement could be divided into three stages: a sharp decline after the Spring Festival, a weak rebound, and an accelerated decline [18] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Laying Hen Inventory - The laying hen inventory remained high in June 2025, at about 1.27 billion. The supply was abundant, and the supply - demand contradiction was intensified by the high mold rate in the rainy season and the low prices of substitutes [21] 3.2.2. Old Hen Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the average price of old hens was 5.11 yuan/jin, a 1.73% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. As of June 30, it was 4.64 yuan/jin, a 19.58% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price fluctuated in stages, affected by factors such as egg prices, holidays, and supply - demand imbalances [26][27] 3.2.3. Chick Sales and Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, chick sales showed a "decrease - increase - decrease" trend, with a monthly average of 423.4 million, a 0.12% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Chick prices first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 4.57 yuan/chick in February and a low of 3.90 yuan/chick in June. The decline was due to factors such as low egg prices, high feed costs, and low replenishment enthusiasm [32][34] 3.2.4. Elimination Progress Analysis - From January to June 2025, the monthly average old hen slaughter volume was 1.9618 million, a 13.95% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The slaughter volume first decreased and then increased in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. The average slaughter age was 527 days, a 1.71% increase year - on - year [40] 3.2.5. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Egg - laying hen breeding has been in a loss state this year. As of now, the breeding cost is 3.53 yuan/jin, and the loss is 0.73 yuan/jin [44] 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis and Inter - Month Spread - No detailed analysis content provided, only data tables such as futures - spot basis and inter - month spread are presented [44] 3.4. Market Outlook - In the short term, egg prices face great pressure. With the arrival of the peak season in the third quarter, demand will recover and prices may rebound, but the increase will be limited [49] 3.5. Operation Strategy - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to market uncertainties. In the medium - to - long term, pay attention to the marginal changes in capacity reduction and demand recovery in July. If they resonate, a trend rebound may occur [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the 2510 contract of rebar rose by 1.15%. The manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs in June all increased compared to the previous month. The central bank aims to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, and anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported stainless steel products. From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [5][31][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - This section includes analyses of futures prices, spot prices, and basis spreads, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [7][9][12] Important Market Information - In June, the manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The central bank's second - quarter meeting in 2025 focused on revitalizing existing commercial housing and land to stabilize the real estate market. On June 25, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations. From January to May, transportation fixed - asset investment was 1.2 trillion yuan. Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [14] Supply - side Situation - This section mentions the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [15] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Fundamental Analysis - In Linfen, Shanxi, a coal mine with a production capacity of 900,000 tons was shut down for 10 - 15 days due to safety hazards. Last week, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, up 0.04% from the previous week and up 1.70% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week and up 16.45% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4229 million tons, up 110,000 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 million tons year - on - year. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of molten iron [30] 后市展望 - From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly [31] Operation Strategy - The recommended operation strategy is to wait and see [32]