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建信期货锌期货日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 13:58
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the lack of key economic data during the US government shutdown, Fed officials' remarks dominated market expectations. A dovish voting member turning hawkish dampened the expectation of a December interest rate cut, leading to a collective correction in base metals. The domestic lead, tin, and aluminum led the decline in non - ferrous metals, with a decline of over 1%. Shanghai zinc basically gave back the weekly gains last Friday, opened lower and fluctuated on Monday, with the main contract closing at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan or 0.33%. The LME inventory increased by 1,175 tons on the 17th. The supply of domestic zinc concentrate is tight, and the smelting processing fees continue to decline. Although the TC decline squeezes smelting profits, the sulfuric acid price is still rising steadily. SMM estimates that the refined zinc output in November may decline slightly month - on - month. Overall, the market sentiment is cautious as a series of data will be released after the US government resumes operation. LME zinc maintains high - level volatility. Against the background of the realization of increased domestic exports, the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally, and the focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the support of the tight - mine logic on zinc prices. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,300 - 22,800 yuan [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc, the 2511 contract opened at 22,435 yuan/ton, closed at 22,455 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,475 yuan/ton, a low of 22,385 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.13%, and the open interest decreased by 65 to 5,520. The 2512 contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,495 yuan/ton, a low of 22,385 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan or 0.33%, and the open interest decreased by 8,703 to 91,450. The 2601 contract opened at 22,475 yuan/ton, closed at 22,490 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,530 yuan/ton, a low of 22,420 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan or 0.33%, and the open interest decreased by 1,842 to 78,331 [7]. - **Inventory and Market Factors**: On the 17th, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,175 tons, with an increase of 800 tons in Hong Kong, 500 tons in Kaohsiung, and a decrease of 12 tons in Singapore. The Cash - 3M spread was 175.85B. The supply of domestic zinc concentrate is tight, SMM domestic zinc concentrate processing fees dropped 200 to 2,650 yuan/ton, and imported ore TC dropped 4.17 to 98.37 US dollars/ton [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium Information**: On November 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,515 - 22,620 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,445 - 22,550 yuan/ton. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,505 - 22,550 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,360 - 22,490 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded at 22,350 - 22,440 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures including the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][13]
建信期货油脂日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:59
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector rebounded from a low level, and the strategy is mainly to conduct band buying. Rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 10000, and attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the development of China - Canada relations. There is a chance for a reverse spread between the January and May contracts of rapeseed oil. The current price of soybean oil around 8000 has limited downside space but is suppressed by high inventory in the short term. Palm oil is expected to see a reduction in production and inventory starting from November [8]. - If the increase in bio - fuel consumption squeezes global supply, palm oil prices may soar in the first quarter of next year [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Review**: The table shows the trading information of multiple futures contracts such as P2605, P2601, Y2605, etc., including pre - settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the closing price of P2605 is 8796, up 22 or 0.25% [7]. - **Spot Price Basis**: In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil and the basis prices of different grades of rapeseed oil in different months are given. In the Guangdong market, the quotes of palm oil traders for different grades are provided [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the technical support below and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. For soybean oil, there is value in buying at the current price. For palm oil, conduct band buying as it is expected to reduce production and inventory [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - **Palm Oil Export**: From November 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 728,995 tons, a 15.5% decrease compared to the same period in October. Exports to China remained basically the same at 99,000 tons [11]. - **Palm Oil Production Forecast**: Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to drop from 49.4 million tons this year to 49 million tons, and Malaysia's production in 2026 is expected to reach 19.5 million tons, lower than this year's estimated 19.86 million tons. The global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons [11]. 3.3数据概览 - Multiple charts are presented, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, the basis change of palm oil, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, the basis change of soybean oil, the basis change of rapeseed oil, various price spreads of palm oil futures, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and the US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][16][23][24][29][30].
建信期货原油日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:59
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC:元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量(万手) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 58.66 | 59.81 | 60.47 | 58.66 | 2.00 | 30.09 | | Brent | 主力 | 63.36 | 64.29 | 64.87 | 63.36 | 2.03 | 46.11 | | SC | 主力(元/桶) | 456.6 | 458.1 | 462.2 | 455.4 | 0.59 | 4.36 | 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究发展部 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3 ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:59
Industry Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot egg market has weakened again, with prices in the Hubei and Hunan powder egg regions declining, while prices in the northern red egg region remain stable. Egg sales have returned to a slow pace, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level this week. Futures prices have declined due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, with near - term contracts falling more significantly and far - term contracts being relatively firm due to the expectation of reduced inventory. The egg - laying hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, and there is an expectation of a continuous slight decline in the medium - term. If the low - price period in the fourth quarter is longer, the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year will be greater. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, while a reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For the egg 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3251, the opening price was 3210, the highest price was 3231, the lowest price was 3190, the closing price was 3229, down 22 or - 0.68% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 201,850 and an open interest of 219,756 (an increase of 207,641). For the 2602 contract, the previous settlement price was 3048, the opening price was 3036, the highest price was 3042, the lowest price was 3018, the closing price was 3038, down 10 or - 0.33%, with a trading volume of 27,929 and an open interest of 117,265 (an increase of 2589). For the 2512 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3000, the highest price was 3023, the lowest price was 2970, the closing price was 2987, down 56 or - 1.84%, with a trading volume of 99,000 and an open interest of 57,337 (a decrease of 14,044) [7] - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 contract fell 0.68% [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] - **Chick Rearing**: In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks by sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total chick rearing volume in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9] 3. Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly culling volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend [17] - **Culling Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average culling age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [17]
白糖日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:59
行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员:王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 印度政府已批准 2025-26 榨季出口 150 万吨食糖,并决定取消甘蔗糖蜜出口 税,将该关税调整为零 150 万吨糖出口配额将按比例分配给在运营的糖厂, 分配依据为各厂过去三个季的平均产量。 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, while the glass market is likely to continue its downward trend in the medium term if there is no new market expectation stimulus [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 17, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated with a slight upward trend. The closing price was 1,231 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with a daily reduction of 19,289 lots [7] - Fundamentally, enterprise production and sales are approaching balance, and inventory reduction is not obvious. Weekly soda ash production decreased 1.01% to 73.93 tons, still at a high level. The soda ash device is running stably, and individual overhauls have little overall impact. In the demand side, the shipment of Chinese soda ash enterprises from mid - to early November increased 1.57% to 74.62 tons. The production of float glass decreased 1.08% to 111.39 tons. The alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.73 tons, in the middle range of the past six months [8] - In the short - term, the disk price is affected by the increase in light soda ash price and the expected equipment overhaul in late November, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern of oversupply may continue [8] Glass - Fundamentally, the daily melting volume of float glass remains high, and the supply is supported. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level for the year. After the holiday, the factory inventory remains high. The real estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9] - Recently, the disk price has been oscillating weakly. In the medium - term, if there is no new market expectation, the downward trend of the disk is difficult to change [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][17]
建信期货纸浆日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract was 5474 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5474 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.00%. [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4900 - 6500 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5550 yuan/ton. [7] - International News: Finnforest Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quotation of softwood pulp increased by $20. In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow. [7] - European Market: In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. [7] - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9766 million tons, an increase of 4.22% from the previous week. [7] - Downstream Market: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while the prices of other base papers were stable. The improvement of social orders for offset paper was limited, and publishing tenders continued. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Hong Kong Stock Market: On November 17, Hong Kong paper stocks rose. Chenming Paper led with a gain of over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper rose over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper rose nearly 3%. [8] - Price Increase: Since November, the price increase wave in the domestic paper industry has intensified. Shanying Paper raised the prices of products such as red fir paper and corrugated paper by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, and the core product categories in Guangdong and Zhejiang bases increased by 50 yuan/ton. Nine Dragons Paper and other enterprises followed suit. [8] - Market Outlook: Driven by the packaging demand during the "Double Eleven" period, the price increase of packaging paper was supported, but industry insiders pointed out that the price increase might not be sustainable due to the oversupply of bulk paper materials. [8]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weak cost support and a continuously loose supply - demand situation, the overall price of polyolefins is expected to remain under pressure. Although the relatively low absolute price may stimulate periodic replenishment demand, providing weak support to the market, the price is likely to oscillate within the bottom range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts (such as plastic 2601, plastic 2605, etc.) are presented. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 6843 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.25%), and PP2601 closed at 6467 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.35%) [3][4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In October, the Guangxi Petrochemical plant was successfully put into production. There are no new production plans in November. Some maintenance plants will restart, and the weekly output has increased as expected. In November, the demand is expected to weaken, and downstream buyers have returned to purchasing based on rigid demand after restocking at low prices, which cannot effectively drive up prices [4]. - **Cost Factor**: EIA has raised the inventory accumulation forecast for the fourth quarter. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in the first quarter of next year, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation, and the cost support for plastics and chemicals is weak [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On November 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 720,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons (12.50%) from the previous working day, compared with 700,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Market Prices**: PE market prices showed partial fluctuations. The prices of LLDPE in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6930 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 5760 - 5800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The mainstream prices of PP in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6340 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, but specific data values are not provided in the text [9][12][13].
建信期货股指日评-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
报告类型 股指日评 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 11 月 17 日,万得全 A 缩量下跌,开盘震荡回落,尾盘有所修复,收跌 0.15%; 沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500 收盘分别下跌 0.65%、0.87%、0.00%,中证 1000 收 盘上涨 0.27%,中小盘股表现更优。期货方面,期货表现强于现货,IF、IH 主力 合约分别收跌 0.41%、0.70%,IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 0.08%、0.30%(按收盘 价计算)。 | 表1:股指期 ...
建信期货PTA日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
1. Report Information - Report Type: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 17th, the closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2601 was 4,692 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (0.42%), with a settlement price of 4,696 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 6,523 lots. The TA2605 contract closed at 4,756 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 84,010 lots, an increase of 10,594 lots [6] - Market Outlook: Although PTA is theoretically in a de - stocking state, the decline in the crude oil market weakens cost support, and there is no tight supply in the PTA spot market. Therefore, the PTA market is expected to be weak [6] 3. Industry News - Crude Oil: Due to concerns about supply after a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot in a European country's energy center, international oil prices continued to rise. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.09 per barrel, up $1.40 (2.39%), trading between $58.71 - $60.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.39 per barrel, up $1.38 (2.19%), trading between $63.36 - $64.87 [7] - PX Market: The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $829 - 831/ton, down $1/ton; in the South Korean market, it was estimated at $809 - 811/ton, down $1/ton. There was one deal heard during the day, with any January cargo sold at $830/ton. The cost - side single - sided driving force is insufficient due to the fluctuating international oil prices, and the market is waiting to see the operation progress of a PX plant in South China, leading to increased long - short game sentiment [7] - PTA Market: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,622 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 74 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2601, up 4 yuan/ton [7] 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis differences, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and inventory [11][13][17]