Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market continued to be bullish, mainly driven by the loose inter - bank funds. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and restarted balance - sheet expansion, with a neutral dot - plot result [8]. - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all tenors declined, mostly by around 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.83%, down 0.5bp [9]. - The inter - bank liquidity further eased. There were 180.8 billion yuan in maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 118.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index was stable, and the funds trended towards looseness [10]. - The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing the moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market should be limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle adjustment again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. Coupled with institutional concentrated selling triggered by the new public - fund regulations, market short - term volatility has increased [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to a reasonable pricing level. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical median, indicating that the current market is not pricing in next year's interest - rate cuts, and futures have slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have some room for catch - up growth. In the short term, inflation remains weak, with PPI weaker than expected, suggesting that the pressure of oversupply is still high. The fundamentals still support the bond market. Overseas, the Fed's balance - sheet expansion is faster than expected, which is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. The domestic expectation of monetary easing has not yet heated up, waiting for further policy guidance, and the strength of allocation funds remains cautious [12] Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, met with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. They exchanged views on the current international economic and financial situation and continued cooperation. He Lifeng said that China's economy has been performing steadily and well this year, and China is confident and capable of maintaining sustainable and healthy economic development [13]. - He Yadong, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Ministry of Commerce will take the full - scale customs - clearance operation as an opportunity to vigorously promote institutional opening - up and strive to build the Hainan Free Trade Port into an important gateway leading China's opening - up in the new era [13]. - He Yadong mentioned in a regular press conference that China and the EU held a trade - remedy dialogue this week and will continue consultations next week. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products proposed a solution representing the industry's overall stance, and the two sides have achieved certain results through multiple rounds of consultations [14]. - At a regular press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to a question about Mexico's new import - export tariff bill. He emphasized that going against the trend of economic globalization and practicing protectionism is harmful to both parties. He hoped that Mexico would correct its wrong practices and work together with China to maintain the overall situation of bilateral economic and trade relations [14] Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - The trading data of treasury bond futures on December 11, including contract information such as TL2512, TL2603, etc., covering pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open - interest change [6] Money Market - The inter - bank funds further loosened. The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan in the open market. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits decreased by 1.14bp to 1.2768%, the 7 - day rate fluctuated around 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate - of - deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 一、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - long - term upward trend of gold and the precious metals sector remains unchanged, and investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance in precious metals trading [4][5] - The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The dovish tone of the Fed's interest - rate meeting pushed down the US dollar index and drove up precious metals prices. Silver prices have been running strongly recently, and there is still significant room for growth in 2026, but short - term adjustment risks should be noted [4] - In the short - to - medium term, London gold needs to move within the range of $3880 - $4380 per ounce to accumulate momentum for a new breakthrough. In the medium - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - The precious metals intermediate bull market since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [5] - After the significant decline in gold and silver prices since late October, the internal adjustment risks have been partially released. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long again when technical and fundamental factors resonate [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed cut the target policy rate range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, with three policymakers voting against it. The Fed hinted at a possible pause in further rate cuts, and the market expects two rate cuts in 2026 [17] - US President Trump said that the US seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, which intensified the tension between the US and Venezuela and pushed up oil prices [17] - ECB President Lagarde said that the eurozone economy has shown resilience in the face of trade tensions, and the ECB may raise its economic growth forecast next week. The market believes there is no need to adjust interest rates [18]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 12 月 11 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘震荡运行后一路走低，收跌 1.10%，全 市超 4000 支个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.86%、0.39%、1.02%、1.30%，中小盘股表现更优。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.76%、0.37%、0.67%、0.91%，表现强于现货（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源：Wind，建信 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 连塑主力换月至 05，L2605 高开，盘中震荡向下，尾 ...

行业 集运指数日报 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月10日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,661.0 | 1,653.0 | 1,655.1 | 1,659.2 | -5.9 | -0.36 | 321 | 3169 | -114 | | EC2602 | 1,610.3 | 1,600.0 | 1,665.2 | 1,655.3 | 54.9 | 3.41 | 35894 | 31382 | 669 | | EC2604 | 1,074.6 | 1,073.6 | 1,080.7 | 1,083.3 | 6.1 | 0.57 | 3703 | 19219 | -159 | | EC2606 | 1,214.6 | 1,219.1 | 1,225.6 | 1,223.4 | 11.0 | 0.91 | 38 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 23025 | 23080 | 23110 | 22970 | 15 | 0.07 | 3565 | -865 | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core Viewpoint - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, and there is still demand elasticity before the Spring Festival. However, the concentrated pressure on the栏舍 in October and the continuous release of production capacity have created double supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. But the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent increase in the epidemic in the north has stimulated the sentiment of a low - level rebound, increasing the frequency of bottom oscillations. The spot market is mainly in a state of shock due to the weak enthusiasm of secondary fattening [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing in the negative. The highest was 11,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,305 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,022 lots to 356,347 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs in the country was 11.39 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side**: In the long - term, the slaughter of live pigs may basically maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on栏舍 were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening栏舍 is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In December, the planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, most breeding farms are slaughtering at a normal pace [8]. - **Demand - side**: The utilization rate of栏舍 is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly waiting and watching. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, the demand for curing and sausage - making has gradually increased, the terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 183,600 heads, a decrease of 1,300 heads from the previous day, an increase of 7,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 19,000 heads month - on - month [8]. 2. Industry News - No specific industry news content provided. 3. Data Overview - **Slaughter Volume**: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of the week ending December 4th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - **Fattening Cost**: As of the week ending December 4th, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending December 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated downward on Friday, with the main March contract closing down 1.08% to 14.66 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed down 0.9% to $418.80 per ton. The market is stimulated by the decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and early harvest, and the dry weather in central - southern Brazil supports the sugar price, while the increasing supply in the Northern Hemisphere suppresses it [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar weakened yesterday. The 05 contract closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, down 21 yuan or 0.4%, with an increase of 24,848 positions. The domestic new sugar price remained stable. Fundamentally, the number of sugar mills in the south starting production is increasing, the market lacks confidence, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is stable due to the scarcity of warehouse receipts, and short - selling funds continue to suppress the 05 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR601 closed at 5,328 yuan per ton, down 0.22%, with a position of 241,501 lots; SR605 closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a position of 349,420 lots; US sugar 03 closed at 14.66 cents per pound, down 1.08%, with a position of 454,182 lots; US sugar 05 closed at 14.30 cents per pound, down 0.97%, with a position of 196,694 lots [7]. - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: The New York raw sugar futures and London ICE white sugar futures both declined. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar main contract also weakened. The domestic new sugar price remained stable, and the supply in the south increased while the downstream demand was weak [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Thailand**: Due to the sharp drop in sugar prices and the disease in some sugarcane fields, Thai sugarcane farmers are turning to cassava. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 6% year - on - year to 10.7 million tons, but may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in 2026/27. The 2025/26 sugarcane purchase price is expected to drop by 22% year - on - year to 900 Thai baht per ton (about $28.29) [9]. - **Yunnan, China**: From December 8 - 10, 10 new sugar mills started production in Yunnan, and 2 more are expected to start this week. As of now, 26 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 season, 9 more than the same period last year, with an expected daily sugarcane crushing capacity of 99,600 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Brazil**: Brazil exported about 3.3023 million tons of sugar in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.48%. From April to November in the 2025/26 season, Brazil cumulatively exported 25.2591 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [9]. - **India**: The average production cost of sugar in India has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram. The industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price of sugar, which has not changed for more than six years. From the start of the 2025 - 26 season to November 30, 2025, sugar production reached 4.108 million tons, compared with 2.876 million tons in the same period last year, and the number of sugar mills in operation increased to 428 from 376 last year [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on spot trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazil raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, with data sources mainly from Wind, Pan - Sugar Technology, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [12][14][21]

日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...