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建信期货集运指数日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 12:00
Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment surge further fermented in the February contract after the Shanghai Futures Exchange clarified the last trading day of the February contract on Friday. The December contract was weak due to the under - expected price increase. The SCFIS index fell 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67. Shipping companies have not formed a unified price - holding force, and the December price increase is less than expected. However, there is still a far - month price increase expectation, which may lead to over - valuation of the 04 contract in the off - season. It is advisable to pay attention to the positive spread trading opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The last trading day of the February contract was clarified as February 9. The expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment surge affected the February contract, while the December contract was weak due to under - expected price increases. The SCFIS index decreased by 9.8% week - on - week. Shipping companies' price increases are difficult to implement, but there is a far - month price increase expectation, and the 02 - 04 positive spread trading opportunity is worth noting [8] 3.2行业要闻 - From November 10 to 14, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with ocean - going routes showing a differentiated trend and the comprehensive index slightly declining. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on November 14 was 1451.38 points, down 2.9% from the previous period. The eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index was 25, indicating a recovery of market confidence in the European economy. The freight rate of European routes increased by 7.1%, the Mediterranean routes were stable, and the North American routes decreased. There were also developments in the Israel - Palestine conflict and related international stances [9][10] 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - On November 17, the SCFIS for European routes was 1357.67, down 9.8% from November 10; the SCFIS for US - West routes was 1238.42, down 6.9% from November 10 [12] 3.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 - Data on the trading of container shipping futures on the European line on November 19 were provided, including information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change for contracts EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - Multiple charts related to shipping data were presented, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures on the European line, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][18][23]
碳酸锂期货日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:28
Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - Carbonate lithium futures prices are rising, with far - month contracts breaking through 100,000. The trading enthusiasm is high, with the total intraday open interest increasing by 70,750 lots. The spot price has risen by 1500 to 88,900. Various related products in the industry chain are also rising. Although the spot price is following the increase, the futures price is still significantly higher than the spot price. Short - term chasing of the rising price is risky. It is recommended to wait for the futures - spot price to converge and then buy at low prices [11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures prices increased, with far - month contracts exceeding 100,000. The trading enthusiasm remained high, and the total intraday open interest increased by 70,750 lots. The spot price rose 1500 to 88,900, 6F rose 4000, Australian ore increased by 60, mica increased by 110, electrolyte remained flat, ternary cathode materials rose 300 - 500, and lithium iron phosphate rose 350 - 365. The prices in the industrial chain are rising continuously. However, the futures price is much higher than the spot price, so short - term chasing of the rising price has risks. It is advisable to wait for the futures - spot price to converge and then buy at low prices [11]. 2. Industry News - The EU plans to establish a central institution for coordinating the procurement and reserve of critical minerals. The EU aims to diversify the inventory of critical minerals such as lithium and copper to reduce dependence on a single country. The plan also includes signing partnership agreements with countries like Brazil and South Africa and providing funds for relevant innovation [12]. - At the 15th High - tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference, it was predicted that China's lithium battery shipments would increase by more than three times from 2025 to 2035. The period from 2027 (or 2028) to 2030 will be an important stage for the large - scale construction of GWh - level production capacity in the all - solid - state lithium battery industry. With the growing demand in the power battery and energy storage markets and the breakthroughs in new technologies, China's lithium battery industry is transforming from scale expansion to value creation and will maintain high - speed growth in the next decade [12][13].
建信期货镍日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:24
行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 汽车购置税将减半征收,中汽协提议,明年应持续优化汽车"以旧换新"政 策,以稳定市场预期。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 镍观点: 宏观情绪有所缓解,19 日沪镍暂止跌企稳运行,主力 2601 小幅高开后震荡 运行,收盘报 115830,较上日上涨 0.29%。金川镍平均升水较上日涨 50 报 4100, 国产电积镍升水报 0-400。8-12%高镍生铁仍未止住跌势,均价下跌 2.5 至 897 元 /镍点,电池级硫酸镍均价较上日下跌 ...
建信期货铁矿石日评-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:23
报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1:11月19日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、%、手、亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...
建信期货锌期货日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:21
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: For SHFE zinc contracts 2512, 2601, and 2602, the closing prices were 22,420 yuan/ton, 22,435 yuan/ton, and 22,455 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 70 yuan (0.31%), 65 yuan (0.29%), and 60 yuan (0.27%). The positions of the top 20 long and short seats both decreased, and the net long position decreased by 421 lots. LME zinc had an additional delivery of 1,550 tons to 45,075 tons, with a cumulative delivery of 9,700 lots since November. The Cash - 3M spread was 129.76B. [7] - Spot Market: The downstream maintained just - in - time procurement. The premium in Shanghai market for the December contract was 160 yuan/ton, Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai, and Guangdong market was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton for the January 26 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. [7] - Supply and Price Support: Due to the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the processing fee continued to decline. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decrease slightly month - on - month, and the tightening of the ore end supported the zinc price. [7] - Market Sentiment: According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 42.9%. The market sentiment turned cautious before the release of the September non - farm payroll data on Thursday evening. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Price Ranges on November 19, 2025: The mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were 22,495 - 22,600 yuan/ton, Shuangyan brand was 22,545 - 22,660 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,425 - 22,530 yuan/ton. [8] - Regional Markets: In Ningbo, the mainstream 0 zinc price was 22,525 - 22,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract and 120 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. In Tianjin, 0 zinc was 22,330 - 22,490 yuan/ton, and the premium for the 2512 contract was between a discount of 20 yuan/ton and a premium of 50 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, 0 zinc was 22,290 - 22,420 yuan/ton, with a discount of 55 - 25 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract and 60 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory. [10][12] - Data Sources: The data sources are Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]
建信期货铝日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:05
日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 行业 铝日报 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 铝观点: 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 每日报告 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 一、行情回顾与操作建议 宏观氛围转暖风险资产恐慌情绪有所缓解,19 日铝价暂止跌窄幅运行,主力 2601 报收于 21570,较上日上涨 0.12%。现货上,绝对价小幅回升,但整体水平 低于前期,采购情绪回暖,下游补货意愿回升,持货方尝试挺升贴水,日内华东 贴水-20,中原贴水-120,华南贴水-145。进口窗口关闭,现货进口亏损-1600 元 /吨左右。国产矿相对坚挺,几内亚矿价低位徘徊,氧化铝运行产能保持高位,过 剩压力显著,但随着月均价下行北 ...
建信期货铜期货日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:04
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The short - term spot demand supports copper prices, but the macro - face has a large impact. With the continued selling of US stocks, rising Japanese bond yields, and upcoming important US data, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper stopped falling. The selling of US stocks continued, but the A - share market stopped falling during the day, and market risk - aversion sentiment cooled. The spot price rose 110 to 86,115, and the spot premium rose 15 to 85. The decline of copper prices to 86,000 stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. The LME0 - 3 contango structure expanded to 35, and the domestic spot import loss was around 270. With the narrowing of the import loss, the supply of imported goods is expected to increase [10] Group 5: Industry News - From January to September 2025, the production of major global copper enterprises showed differentiation. BHP's cumulative production in the first three quarters was 1.0509 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; Rio Tinto's copper mine production was 0.5377 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.03%; MMG's production was 0.3455 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.84%. Freeport - McMoRan's production decreased by 8.8% year - on - year, and Glencore's production decreased by 23.54% year - on - year. Most companies maintained their annual production guidance, but Codelco lowered its annual target from 1.34 - 1.37 million tons to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons due to a safety accident [11] - Zhejiang Kefei Technology Co., Ltd. signed an EPC contract for the SHOMBERWA 60kt/a copper smelting and chemical project with LEDYA Group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project will process 2 million tons of high - grade copper - cobalt sulfide ore annually, with a planned annual production of 60,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supporting blister copper and sulfuric acid production systems will be built in two phases, ultimately reaching an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of blister copper (Cu98%) and 180,000 tons of industrial sulfuric acid (98% H₂SO₄), with expansion space reserved [11][12] - Freeport - McMoRan plans to restart the production of the Grasberg copper - gold mine in Indonesia by July next year. The mine was shut down in September this year due to a fatal accident. It is expected that the total production of copper and gold of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, about 1 billion pounds of copper and 90 ounces of gold, and production is expected to increase from 2026 to 2027 [12]
建信期货原油日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price declined. The average price in the main production areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract dropped 0.53% [8] - Last week, the spot market weakened again. The prices in the two - lake powder egg areas, the main force of the previous rebound, gradually declined, while the supply - demand of northern red eggs was relatively balanced with stable prices. The market sales returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there won't be a large - scale dumping like in the rainy and summer seasons. It is expected that the egg price will have a narrow - range adjustment at a low level this week [8] - In terms of futures, due to the short - term downturn of the spot market, there was a certain decline this week. The near - month contracts had a larger decline as they were approaching delivery, while the far - month contracts were relatively firm due to the expectation of inventory reduction [8] - Fundamentally, the layer inventory in late October decreased on a monthly basis for the first time this year, indicating that the poor breeding profit has gradually affected the supply side. Also, observing the year - on - year data of the replenishment volume in the past four months, it is expected that the layer inventory may continue to decline slightly in the medium term [8] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the market is considered to be in a low - level shock. The low spot price may last for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread between near - and far - month spreads [8] Contract Details | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601 | 3197 | 3180 | 3194 | 3157 | 3180 | - 17 | - 0.53% | 151302 | 208381 | 195915 | | 2602 | 2993 | 2968 | 2979 | 2948 | 2971 | - 22 | - 0.74% | 37394 | 124504 | 1313 | | 2512 | 2950 | 2922 | 2936 | 2902 | 2928 | - 22 | - 0.75% | 45650 | 42097 | - 8730 | [7] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] Replenishment - In October 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year (July - October 2024) [9] Group 4: Data Overview Elimination Volume - According to the latest data from Zhuochuang Information, in the three weeks up to November 13, 2025, the national chicken elimination volumes were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend recently [17] Elimination Age - As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of chickens was 493 days, the same as last week and 6 days earlier than last month [17]
建信期货PTA日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:42
行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 随着乌克兰对欧洲某国 ...