豆粕生猪：美农报告偏多 豆粕震荡企稳 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 会員期货 JIDGHI FILTUR | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 尊位 | रेम | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月11日 | 元/吨 | 3074 | 3066 | 8.00 | 0.26% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月11日 | 元/吨 | 2912 | 2896 | 16.00 | 0.55% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月11日 | 元/吨 | 3082 | 3074 | 8.00 | 0.26% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月11日 | 元/吨 | 2449 | 2421 | 28.00 | 1.16% | | | CZCE采用相: 05 | 4月11日 ...

豆粕生猪：现货成交放量 连粕高位回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 行期待 JIDGHI FITUR | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 車(4) | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月9日 | 元/吨 | 3093 | 3127 | -34.00 | -1.09% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月9日 | 元/吨 | 2946 | 2973 | -27.00 | -0.91% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月9日 | 元/吨 | 3119 | 3164 | -45.00 | -1.42% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月9日 | 元/吨 | 2430 | 2457 | -27.00 | -1.10% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | ...

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02 ...

豆粕生猪：关税冲突升级 豆粕跳空大涨 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | THER | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 東区 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月7日 | 元/吨 | 3024 | 3010 | 14.00 | 0.47% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月7日 | 元/吨 | 2885 | 2862 | 20.00 | 0.70% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月7日 | 元/吨 | 3056 | 3039 | 17.00 | 0.56% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月7日 | 元/吨 | 2357 | 2375 | -18.00 | -0.76% | | 期货 | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 4月7日 | 元/吨 | 2598 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, affected by the global market shock, black - series commodity futures fell collectively. Currently, steel mills are still in the resumption cycle, which provides some support for iron ore prices in the short term. However, considering that trade frictions will significantly impact market risk appetite and finished - product valuations, the progress of steel mill resumption may slow down further, and iron ore may have a large correction space. Meanwhile, the market has begun to expect relevant policies to support domestic demand, which may interfere with unilateral trading [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all decreased. Rebar closed at 3083 yuan/ton, down 2.59%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3261 yuan/ton, down 3.06%; iron ore closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, down 3.36%; coking coal and coke also closed weakly [1]. Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 22.08%. The daily average pig iron output was 238.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. Terminal demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces continued, supporting the actual demand for iron ore. However, due to recent global trade friction escalation, the market is not optimistic about the future steel mill production expectations [1]. Supply - From March 31 to April 6, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons. The volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.531 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.739 million tons. The latest arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.591 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.132 million tons. The overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume continued to decline. The iron ore supply tightened slightly, which may support the futures price. The port iron ore inventory decreased, and the port clearance volume increased, which also had a positive impact on the market sentiment. Overall, the current iron ore supply pressure has eased slightly [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the sideways market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary - Currently, steel mills are in the resumption cycle, which supports iron ore prices in the short term. But due to trade frictions, the steel mill resumption progress may slow down, and iron ore may correct significantly. It is recommended to operate with a light position and caution [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, oscillating around the 13,000 - yuan mark. Attention should be paid to downstream and order situations, as well as domestic and tariff policies [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The closing price of the main 2505 contract of Zhengzhou cotton dropped 3.11% to 13,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. ICE US cotton fell 2.27% overnight to 63.33 cents/pound. Affected by tariff policies, US cotton hit a four - year low, and Zhengzhou cotton futures opened and closed lower. The commodity market had many varieties hitting the daily limit down, with the chemical sector being severely affected and most of the agricultural products sector declining [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On April 3, the US announced a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods, and on April 4, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports. This tariff escalation may reshape the global cotton textile production and sales structure, leading to a bearish market sentiment. Cotton prices are likely to continue their weak performance in the short term [3][4]. - In the 2025/26 season (August - July), Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase by 2.9% to 2.13 million hectares, with a record - high output of 17.8 million bales (3.87 million tons). Exports are expected to reach 13.9 million bales (3 million tons), a 3.7% increase from the 2024/25 season [4]. - As of April 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory in China was 4.4201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,700 tons (2.94%). Xinjiang's commodity cotton inventory decreased by 157,600 tons (4.31%) to 3.5 million tons, while the inland inventory increased by 26,100 tons (7.17%) to 389,900 tons. The downstream textile mills' operation is stable, with mostly rigid - demand purchases and limited large orders. The cotton bale delivery volume is relatively stable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline next week [5][6]. - On April 7, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 12,702 (- 51) sheets, including 9,390 (+ 127) registered warehouse receipts and 3,312 (- 178) effective forecasts [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][12][13][15]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - The US tariff - imposing measures have led to a protectionist resurgence, causing other countries to reduce trade with the US. Domestically, the impact of tariff policies will continue, and the weak trend of Zhengzhou cotton will not change in the short term. It is uncertain whether Zhengzhou cotton can hold the 13,000 - yuan mark. Overall, it is expected to oscillate around this mark in the short term, and attention should be paid to domestic and tariff policies [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is worrying, and the overall trend of oils and fats is downward. Internationally, the US tariff war leads to a poor outlook for US soybean exports, CBOT soybean futures decline, and Brazilian soybean premiums rise. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year. Domestically, the dependence on US soybeans is decreasing, the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic, and soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [1][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Macro and Industry News - During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, China announced reciprocal tariffs, raising the tariff on imported US soybeans to 47% [2] - Analysts predict that the global 2024/25 soybean ending inventory will be 122.07 million tons, with a forecast range of 121 - 123 million tons, higher than the USDA's March estimate [2] - In March, the total soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 6.21 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and 1.03 million tons from the same period last year. In early April, the soybean inventory of oil mills was still tight, and the imported soybean arrivals are expected to increase in late April, with the April crushing volume about 6.5 million tons [2] - The market expects that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of March will reach 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February. The March crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from the previous month, and the export volume is estimated to be 1.022 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific data analysis content provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the US tariff war causes the CBOT soybean futures market to decline, and Brazilian soybeans benefit. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year [19] - Domestically, the impact of the tariff war on the supply of imported soybeans is limited, but the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic. Soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [19]

豆粕生猪：关税靴子落地 内外走势分化 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 毛口朗冷 JIDAHI FITTIN | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截台 | 車位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期高 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 3010 | 2978 | 32.00 | 1.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 2865 | 2832 | 33.00 | 1.17% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 3039 | 2983 | 56.00 | 1.88% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 2375 | 2345 | 30.00 | 1.28% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 05 | 4月3日 | 元 ...

油脂：大宗集体走弱 菜油逆势收涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 | 脂 每 | 日 | 数 据 | 追 | 踪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 7902.00 | 7986.00 | -84.00 | -1.05% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 9198.00 | 9304.00 | -106.00 | -1.14% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 9534.00 | 9466.00 | 68.00 | 0.72% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月2日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1029.25 | 1032.75 | -3.50 | -0.34% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4月2日 | 美分/磅 | 4 ...