| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.07） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3061 -21 -0.68% 3180 119 | | 热卷 | 3191 -20 -0.62% 3260 69 | | 铁矿 | 731 -5 -0.68% 730 -1 | | 焦煤 | 835 -15 -1.76% 880 45 | | 焦炭 | 1422.5 -13.5 -0.94% 1182 -240.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体下跌。螺纹收于3061元/吨，跌幅0.68%；热卷主力合 | | | 约收于3191元/吨，下跌0.62%；铁矿今日主力合约收于731元/吨；双焦今天继 | | | 续下跌。 | | | 市场分析 | | | 247家钢厂日均铁水产量仍处于绝对高位水平，上周回落至4月末以来最低位 | | | 240.85万吨。另外七八月传统高温多雨天气影响，下游实际需求增量或有限， | | | 部分钢厂有减产意向，钢厂仍将以销定产为主，采购情绪整体偏谨慎。 | | | 焦炭价格累计下跌四轮后，原料煤并未跟跌 ...

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.04） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3072 7 0.23% | | 3170 | 98 | | 热卷 | 3201 8 | 0.25% | 3270 | 69 | | 铁矿 | 732.5 4.5 0.62% | | 718 | -14.5 | | 焦煤 | 839.5 -9 -1.06% | | 880 | 40.5 | | 焦炭 | 1433 -6 -0.42% 1182 -251 | | | | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体表现一般。螺纹收于3072元/吨，上涨0.23%；热卷主 | | | | | | 力合约收于3201元/吨，上涨0.25%；铁矿今日主力合约收于732.5元/吨；双焦 | | | | | | 今天小幅下跌。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 本周期钢盘面打破了持续一个月的窄幅震荡行情，价格重心上移近百点，主要 | | | | | | 得益于供应端的利 ...

豆粕生猪：市场缺乏指引 连粕窄幅震荡 | | 美白朗冷 THERE EILLINES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 3006 | 3008 | -2.00 | -0.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2715 | 2715 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2954 | 2958 | -4.00 | -0.14% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2326 | 2319 | 7.00 | 0.30% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2328 | 2327 | 1.00 | 0.04% | | | CZCE荣籽柏: 09 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2597 | 2601 | ...

油脂：美国公共假期休市 油脂震荡调整 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、乌克兰议会正在审议一项税法修正案，拟对大豆和油菜籽恢复征收 10%的出口关税。 该法案已通过 6 月 26 日的初步讨论，将于 7 月 2 日提交税务政策委员会审议，预计 7 月 15 日进行议会全体表决。 2、欧盟数据显示，2024/25 年度迄今，欧盟大豆进口量增长 8%，从乌克兰进口的数量 激增近 60%。2024/25 年度（从 7 月至次年 6 月）巴西是欧盟头号大豆供应国，供应量为 611 万吨，较上年的 597 万吨增长 2.4%（上周减少 1.5%），但是所占份额从 45.8%降至 42.8%。 3、美国农业部出口销售报告显示，截至 6 月 26 日当周，美国对中国（仅指大陆）的 2024/25 年度大豆净销售量为 0 吨，这也是连续第 9 周销售量为零（或负值）。 4、马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）将于 7 月 10 日（下周四）公布月度数据。一项调查显示， 马来西亚 6 月底的棕榈油库存可能出现四个月以来首次下降，因为产量可能意外下降，而出 口需求依然强劲。分析师们预计 6 月底马来西亚棕榈油库存将降至 199 万吨，较 5 月份 ...

油脂：美生柴政策利好 油脂震荡收涨 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、6 月 30 日美国农业部发布的播种意向数据显示，2025 年美国农户计划播种 8338 万 英亩大豆，低于 3 月份预测的 8349.5 万英亩，同比降低 4.2%，也低于市场平均预估的 8365.5 万英亩（范围 8250-8530 万英亩）。 2、美国农业部作物进展周报显示，截至周日(6 月 29 日），大豆出苗率为 94%，高于前 一周的 90%，历史均值 95%。大豆优良率为 66%，和上周持平，而分析师预期优良率提高到 67%。 3、美国参议院最新税收法案提出，将禁止使用北美以外原料（如中国废弃食用油）生 产的生物燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。该措施较此前版本更为严格。原提案允许使用进口原料的 燃料生产商申请 80%的税收抵免。 4、南马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPPOMMA）的数据显示，2025 年 6 月 1-30 日，南马来西亚 棕榈油产量环比减少 0.65%，其中鲜果串单产环比减少 0.23%，出油率（OER）减少 0.08%。 1 / 3 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号： ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.02） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose. The outlook for soybean meal is short - term weak with potential for long - term price increase, and the live hog market is expected to be volatile in the medium - term [1][2][17]. - The weather in the US Midwest is expected to improve crop growth, which may impact the soybean market [3][4]. - Various macro and industry news such as US soybean压榨 volume, import costs, and livestock product prices have implications for the soybean meal and live hog markets [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed 0.57% lower at 2961 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose 3.43% to 14340 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 15.21 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract was flat at 1028 cents/bushel [1][2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest, there will be showers in some areas in the coming days, which may help improve crop growth. A stagnant front brought heavy rain to the north, and another front will bring showers. The warm and wet weather is beneficial for crop growth in many areas [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - US soybean压榨 volume in a certain month was 6.11 million tons, higher than the previous month and last year. Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased on July 2nd [5]. - On July 1st, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased. The CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased [5]. - The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in June was adjusted. The estimated live hog average price in the second half of 2025 is 14 - 16 yuan/kg [6][7]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket" product index decreased on July 1st. The prices of pork, beef, mutton, eggs, and other agricultural products also declined [7]. - The US 6 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, in the contraction range, and the May JOLTS job vacancies were 7.769 million, higher than expected [7]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 contract is in a narrow - range bottom - shaking pattern, while the M01 contract may rise. The soybean meal spot price is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a possible break below 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis may decline slightly [16][17]. - **Live Hogs**: In the short - term, live hog futures prices may rebound due to reduced supply and positive policies. However, in the medium - term, the increase in supply and weak demand limit the upside of the spot price, and the market will be volatile [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of the latest USDA report on the soybean market is neutral, with short - term CBOT soybean futures expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Domestic soybean meal futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price of soybean meal will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. [18][19] - For the pig market, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in pig futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillating. [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed flat, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes up 10 - 30 yuan/ton in some areas. DCE live pig main contract 2509 decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs rose by 0.19 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.22%. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be rainfall in some parts of the US Midwest in the next few days, which may help improve crop growth. Warm and humid weather can benefit crop growth in many areas, but some regions may not want more rain, while drier areas may welcome precipitation. [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous estimates, and the soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than expected. [5] - On July 1, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased by 14 yuan. [5] - On June 30, the national main oil mills' soybean meal transactions decreased, and the overall oil mill startup rate decreased by 1.28%. [5] - As of the week ending June 27, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit decreased by 8% week - on - week. [6] - The US soybean's excellent - good rate is 66%, lower than expected; the emergence rate is 94%; the flowering rate is 17%; and the pod - setting rate is 3%. [6] - As of June 27, 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. [6] - It is estimated that the national main oil mills' soybean crushing volume in June and July will reach about 10 million tons. [7] - In the 26th week of 2025, the national main oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories increased, unexecuted contracts decreased, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased slightly. [7] - Since the beginning of this year, pig prices have been stable with a downward trend. It is expected that pig prices will remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year. [8] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. [8] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [11][12][14][17] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the USDA report has a neutral impact. CBOT soybean futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Domestic soybean meal futures are in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price will remain at the bottom in the short term. [18][19] - For live pigs, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is oscillating. [20]

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02-29 03-15 03-30 04-14 04-29 05-14 05-29 06-13 06-28 07-13 07-28 08-12 08-27 09-11 09-26 10-11 10-26 11-10 11-25 12-10 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.01） | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In June, the price center of domestic oils continued to rise. The first half - month saw narrow - range fluctuations, while the second half witnessed a sharp increase followed by a decline due to geopolitical and policy factors [3]. - Globally, oilseeds and vegetable oils are moving towards a more relaxed supply - demand situation. However, different oil products face various contradictions between supply and demand [8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In June, DCE soybean oil futures rose 4.53%, DCE palm oil futures rose 3.35%, and CZCE rapeseed oil futures rose 0.72%. The price increase was driven by Middle - East tensions, U.S. bio - diesel policy, and high - temperature threats in North America, followed by a decline after the cease - fire [3]. - **International Market**: CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. Malaysian palm oil futures rose more than 3%, affected by crude oil price changes and bio - diesel policies [3]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **International Supply - Demand Contradictions** - **Soybean**: South American bumper harvests compete with low U.S. soybean inventories. With stable weather during the North American planting period, there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [8]. - **Rapeseed**: There are both expectations of Canadian production cuts and trade policy disturbances. The impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed varieties needs attention [8]. - **Palm oil**: The high - yield period conflicts with improved export demand. Under inventory accumulation pressure, prices are under pressure, and bio - diesel policies remain a volatility amplifier [8]. - **Domestic Market Outlook** - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of South American soybeans increases, and the supply is abundant. However, rising import costs support prices [9]. - **Palm oil**: The arrival volume from June to July is only 250,000 tons per month. The pattern of "low import, low consumption" continues. International factors provide short - term impetus, but prices may face pressure without new drivers [9]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Supply and demand are tightening. After July, the arrival of imported rapeseed will decrease significantly. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to rise, but the substitution effect of the soybean - rapeseed oil price difference needs attention [9]. 3.3 Key Data - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of June, soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 1,730 to 18,882; palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 to 470; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 500 to 100 [14]. - **Basis of Three Major Oils**: In June, the basis of soybean oil decreased by 98 to 218; the basis of palm oil decreased by 226 to 214; the basis of rapeseed oil decreased by 39 to 134 [20]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the week of June 24, the net long position of CBOT soybean - managed funds decreased by 25,523 to 35,396; the net long position of CBOT soybean oil - managed funds decreased by 10,803 to 43,775 [23]. - **Soybean Premiums at Major Ports**: As of June 30, 2025, South American port soybean premiums were 225 cents per bushel, up 80 cents from the previous month; Mexican Gulf soybean premiums were 227 cents per bushel, up 17 cents from the previous month [26]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production and crushing are slightly adjusted upward, and ending stocks are increased again. Global vegetable oil production, trade, consumption, and ending stocks are all slightly increased, showing a trend towards a more relaxed supply - demand situation [32]. - **Global Consumption of Three Major Oils**: In 2025/26, the consumption of three major oils for biodiesel is 54,131 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. The edible consumption is 127,505 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The growth rates are both slowing down [37]. - **Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025/26, global soybean production is expected to be 426.817 million tons, with an increase of 6.04 million tons compared to the previous year. The supply - demand pattern remains relaxed [41]. - **Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production is expected to be 8.9773 million tons, an increase of 450,900 tons compared to the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to be 928,800 tons, a slight increase [57]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025/26, global palm oil production is expected to be 8.0736 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous forecast. Ending stocks are expected to be 1.5051 million tons, an increase of 58,800 tons compared to the previous forecast [71]. 3.5 Production and Trade Data of Major Countries - **United States**: As of the 42nd week of the 2024/25 season, the weekly soybean export volume was 270,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume was 45.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. The export volume to China decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In May 2025, the soybean crushing volume increased by 5.01% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 20.36% year - on - year [43][46][50]. - **Brazil**: In May 2025, the soybean export volume was 14.23 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to May increased by 3.37% year - on - year. The estimated export volume in June was 14.99 million tons [54]. - **Canada**: As of the 46th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the weekly rapeseed export volume was 117,900 tons, and the cumulative export volume increased by 53% year - on - year. The commercial inventory decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. As of April 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume decreased by 4% year - on - year, and the cumulative crushing volume from January to April increased by 2.22% year - on - year [64][66]. - **Malaysia**: In May 2025, palm oil production increased by 3.94% year - on - year, exports increased by 0.16% year - on - year, and inventory increased by 13.5% year - on - year [77]. - **Indonesia**: In April 2025, palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous year, and inventory was lower than the previous year [80]. - **India**: In May 2025, the vegetable oil import volume decreased compared to the previous year, and the inventory decreased compared to the previous year [83]. - **China**: In May 2025, soybean imports increased by 36.16% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports decreased slightly. Rapeseed imports decreased, rapeseed oil imports increased, and palm oil imports decreased [87][91][94][97]. 3.6 Domestic Production Situation - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 25th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.48 million tons, the soybean oil commercial inventory was 886,300 tons, the operating rate was 67.02%, and the import soybean spot crushing profit was 47 yuan per ton [101]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of the 25th week of 2025, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 145,000 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 630,500 tons, the operating rate was 14.26%, and the import rapeseed spot crushing profit was 406 yuan per ton [105]. - **Palm Oil**: As of the 25th week of 2025, the palm oil inventory in key regions was 433,900 tons, and the palm oil import profit was - 281 yuan per ton [108].