Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upward trend of domestic soybean meal is slowing down due to decreased import costs, and the short - term CBOT soybean futures are expected to fluctuate between 1020 - 1040 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has strong upward momentum but may face short - term high - level callback risks. The domestic soybean meal supply is generally abundant, and the demand side lags behind. The domestic hog market is in a state of short - term supply increase and weak demand, showing an overall oscillatory trend [16][17][18] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.29% to 3095 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream regional oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton. The DCE hog main 2509 contract rose 1.46% to 14590 yuan/ton, while the national average ex - factory price of ternary hogs decreased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 14.2 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.07% to 1026 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - The rainfall system in the US Midwest is active this week, and the temperature will rise. Most areas in the Midwest have good soil moisture, and corn and soybeans are entering the pollination period. However, some areas still need rainfall, and northern Indiana is a key area to focus on. The high - temperature weather this week may put pressure on areas with less rainfall [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.11 million tons, and the soybean import costs from the US, Brazil, and Argentina have decreased. On July 22, the domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the average trading price rose for four consecutive days. The US soybean futures prices are oscillating strongly, and the Brazilian soybean export premium quotes are slightly falling. The rapeseed meal continues to rise, and the spot basis weakens slightly. Argentina's June soybean crushing volume is 4.055149 million tons. As of July 20, the EU's 2025/26 soybean, palm oil, and soybean meal imports are lower than last year. The domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices are rising strongly, and the import soybean crushing profit has recovered [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and hogs, as well as the inventory of Chinese soybeans and soybean meal [10][13][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the short - term CBOT soybean futures are expected to fluctuate between 1020 - 1040 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has strong upward momentum but may face short - term high - level callback risks. The domestic soybean meal supply is generally abundant, and the demand side lags behind. For hogs, the short - term supply increases and the demand is weak, showing an overall oscillatory trend, and the short - term price changes with the rhythm of slaughter and second - fattening entry and exit [16][17][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term macro expectations are strong, and the continuous situation of billet exports should be monitored. The anti - involution drives the raw material positive feedback effect, and the market is regarded as fluctuating strongly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 23, the overall upward trend of black commodity futures weakened, with coking coal leading the rise and hitting the daily limit. The closing price of rebar was 3274 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3438 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of iron ore was 812 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to rise sharply, and coking coal hit the daily limit [1] Market Analysis Macro Aspect - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials. On July 19, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, which may set a record in investment scale, igniting the financial market's bullish sentiment and bringing imagination space for steel demand expansion [1] Supply Aspect - From July 14 to July 20, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons, reaching a three - week high. Australian shipments decreased by 1.089 million tons to 16.294 million tons, Brazilian shipments increased by 1.021 million tons to 9.226 million tons, and non - mainstream region shipments rose by more than 30%. Due to the previous decline in shipments, the arrival volume of overseas iron ore in Chinese ports decreased significantly, with the arrival volume at 47 ports being 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons. Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant [1] Demand Aspect - High profits of steel mills drive the increase of molten iron production in the off - season. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%. The average daily molten iron production was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. The better - than - expected recovery of molten iron production indicates good demand for iron ore, which may have a positive impact on the market [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Monitor supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Monitor the stable - after - decline oscillating market and the strength relationship between the two [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 had a technical rebound after reaching the key support level of 2920, but is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range in the short - term. The spot price of soybean meal continued to decline slowly, and the spot trading volume slightly recovered. The basis of soybean meal continued to decline under pressure, and it is difficult to break through the previous low of - 200. The oil mills are facing inventory pressure, and the sales progress of the far - month basis in the fourth quarter is slow [17][18]. - The DCE live hog main contract 2509 declined slightly. In the short - term, the supply of live hogs is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down. The weak demand in the off - season and the medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upward space of the price [19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous trading day, and the quotes of coastal oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main contract 2509 closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.85 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.29% to 1018 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the US Midwest this week, with temperatures close to or higher than normal. Although many areas have basically favorable weather conditions, there are both wet and dry areas in the region [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - Analysts expect the global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory to be 1.2631 billion tons, with a forecast range of 1.235 - 1.4 billion tons, higher than the USDA's June forecast of 1.253 billion tons [5]. - On July 9, the import cost of US soybeans was 4471 yuan, down 12 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3771 yuan, down 49 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3620 yuan, down 34 yuan [5]. - On July 8, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal continued to increase, with the spot trading volume increasing by 65000 tons and the basis trading volume decreasing by 7000 tons. The average trading price was 2860.1 yuan/ton, a 6 - and - a - half - month low [5]. - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/25 soybean output to be 169.25 million tons and Argentina's to be 49.27 million tons [5]. - Analysts expect the US 2025/26 soybean output to be 4.334 billion bushels, with a yield of 52.5 bushels/acre, and the 2024/25 ending inventory to be 358 million bushels [6]. - As of the week ending July 4, the deliverable inventory of CBOT soybeans was 8.667 million bushels, down 3.15% from the previous week and up 196.92% from the same period last year [6]. - As of June 30, the EU's 2024/25 rapeseed imports were 7.45 million tons and soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, higher than last year [6]. - The 2025/26 total supply of soybeans in Mato Grosso is expected to be 48.55 million tons, with an ending inventory of 940,000 tons. The output forecast is 47.18 million tons, down 7.29% from 2024/25 [7]. - As of the week ending July 4, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was 119.72 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for fattening was 26.26 yuan/head [7]. - In June 2025, the national PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the PPIRM decreased by 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live hog prices, basis, and Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US soybean futures price is testing the support level of 1000 - 1010 cents. The Brazilian soybean export sales pressure has been relieved, and its premium is expected to be strong. The domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range, and the spot price is slowly decreasing. The oil mills are facing inventory pressure, and the sales of far - month basis contracts are slow [17][18]. - For live hogs, the short - term supply is tight, but the supply pressure still exists in the medium - term. The demand is weak in the off - season. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening hogs are the key factors affecting the short - term market [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment drives the market higher, but weakening demand limits the upside. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate under pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 9, the black - series commodity futures stabilized overall, and coking coal and coke continued to rebound. The closing price of rebar was 3063 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; iron ore closed at 736.5 yuan/ton; coking coal rose more than 3% [1] Market Analysis - Supply: After the mainstream mines finished their volume - boosting, shipments dropped sharply. From June 30 to July 6, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 362700 tons to 29.949 million tons, a decline of 11.5%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, while those from non - mainstream regions increased slightly. Meanwhile, the previous shipments arrived at ports, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China from June 30 to July 6 was 25.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons. The port inventory increased slightly last week and is expected to continue to rise [1] - Demand: Demand slowed down, steel mills faced greater sales pressure, and some blast furnaces were approaching mid - year maintenance. The molten iron output stopped increasing and started to decline. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained stable at 59.31%, but the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 83.46%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.54% to 90.29%. The daily average molten iron output this week dropped to 2.4085 million tons, the lowest since the end of April. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased slightly last week [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the post - decline stabilization and shock market or the strength relationship between the two [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US raising tariffs on goods from 14 countries may harm US crop export demand, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas causes CBOT soybeans to run under pressure. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June, along with the bullish expectation of the MPOB report and the depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit, support the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and the off - season demand will lead to further inventory accumulation. With weakened import cost support, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The arrival speed of imported palm oil has accelerated, and domestic prices follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, the decline in domestic inventory and uncertainties in subsequent imports still support prices, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 6, the US soybean emergence rate was 96%, higher than the previous week's 94% but lower than the historical average of 98%. The soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and in line with analysts' expectations [2]. - From June 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.69%, compared with a 3.07% month - on - month increase in May [2]. - Due to the US plan to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesian goods, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decline significantly. If the tariff policy is implemented, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decrease by 15% - 20% [2]. - Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.334 billion bushels, with a forecast range of 4.33 - 4.34 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's June estimate of 4.34 billion bushels [2]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: The US tariff increase may harm US crop exports, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas pressures CBOT soybeans. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June and other factors support the rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of US soybean futures closed lower due to favorable crop weather forecasts in the US and trade - policy uncertainties. The domestic continuous - contract M09 of soybean meal continued its weak trend, and the spot market was also under pressure. The short - term spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain under pressure [15][16][17]. - For live pigs, the short - term supply is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down, and factors such as the off - season of consumption and medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upside space of prices [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract declined by 0.07% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the quotes of coastal mainstream regional oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose by 0.21% to 14275 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs decreased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 14.85 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract dropped by 2.62% to 1021 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the US Midwest this week, with temperatures near or above normal. The current weather conditions generally support the growth of crops, but there are also wet and dry areas in the region [3][4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the week of July 27, 2025, the national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 18.91% week - on - week to 82.24 tons, and decreased by 24.04% year - on - year. - On July 8, the import cost of US soybeans remained unchanged, that of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and that of Argentine soybeans decreased by 32 yuan. - On July 7, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume increased by 2.11 tons to 8.45 tons, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased by 2.15% to 64.01%. - As of July 4, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of coastal major oil mills decreased by 2.6 tons to 16.2 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.14 tons to 10.01 tons, and the unexecuted contracts decreased by 0.5 tons to 12.6 tons. - As of July 7, 2025, the national imported soybean port inventory increased by 26.44 tons to 636.369 tons compared with June 30. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 389364 tons, an increase from the previous week. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66% as of July 6, in line with market expectations. - In June 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 1342 tons, the lowest in the same period in the past three years, and the daily average export volume decreased by 3.9% year - on - year. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected output, and 2025/26 sales reached 16.4% of the expected output. - The US announced differential tariff adjustments for 14 trading partners, which will take effect on August 1 [5][6][7][15][16]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pig prices, and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The decline in US soybean futures prices was due to favorable weather and trade - policy impacts. The domestic continuous - contract M09 of soybean meal continued to be weak, and the spot market was also under pressure. The short - term spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain under pressure [15][16][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply is tight, causing prices to fluctuate strongly. In the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down, and consumption off - season and medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upside space [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term supply positive expectations lead to a rebound in futures prices, but it still has to face the reality of high production and difficult - to - improve demand, with no signs of a substantial reversal in the supply - demand pattern. The supply - demand structure of steel may continue to weaken this week, and there is a risk of a correction in the black industry after the anti - involution hype ends [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures are generally weak. The rebar closed at 3063 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the iron ore main contract closed at 733 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose slightly [1] Market Analysis - Last week, the steel futures market broke through the narrow - range oscillation, with the price center rising nearly 100 points, mainly due to the increasing positive sentiment on the supply side. Firstly, the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, which improved the sentiment of commodities with large previous declines and strong supply pressure. Secondly, about the rumor of "Tangshan's sintering machine production limit of 30% from July 4 - 15", about half of the steel mills received the notice, and most of the remaining ones said it was likely to happen. If the policy is implemented, the capacity utilization rate may drop to 70%, and the daily output of sinter may decrease by 30,000 tons. The terminal demand shows the characteristic of "off - season not off - season" in the short term, with the inventory of five major steel products decreasing slightly by 1,000 tons to 1.33993 million tons last week. However, affected by the high - temperature and rainy weather in July and August, it is the traditional off - season for steel demand. The social inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.06% month - on - month, but the steel mill inventory decreased by 2.24%. The steel mills are mainly focused on active sales, while the terminal consumption is not satisfactory [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - The short - term supply positive expectations bring a rebound in futures prices, but it still has to face the reality of high production and difficult - to - improve demand, with no signs of a substantial reversal in the supply - demand pattern. The steel supply - demand structure may continue to weaken this week, and there is a risk of a correction in the black industry after the anti - involution hype ends [1] Brief Evaluation - Rebar: Investors are advised to take an oscillating approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of US soybean futures is expected to continue weak and volatile due to the disappointment of trade - policy expectations and favorable weather for crops. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract is affected by the external market and shows a downward trend, with the spot price expected to maintain a bottom - grinding oscillation. [16][17] - For the live hog market, the short - term supply is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later stage, as the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the price upside is restricted by the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure. [17][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract declined by 0.58% to 2937 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract dropped by 0.42% to 14245 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.85 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract remained unchanged at 1048 cents/bushel. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the mid - week in the US Midwest, with temperatures near to above normal. In the west, there were local to sporadic showers from last Saturday to this Monday, and the temperature was above normal on Saturday, near to above normal on Sunday, and near normal on Monday. In the east, it was mainly dry last Friday, and there were local to sporadic showers from Saturday to Monday, with temperatures above normal from Saturday to Sunday and near to above normal on Monday. From Tuesday to Saturday, there will be local to scattered showers with temperatures near to above normal. Overall, the weather conditions in many areas are still basically favorable. [3][4] 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased but remained at a high level. As of July 4, the crushing volume was 2330000 tons, down 160000 tons week - on - week, up 90000 tons month - on - month, up 340000 tons year - on - year, and up 530000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2350000 tons. [5] - On July 7, the import cost of US soybeans was 4583 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3870 yuan, down 2 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3686 yuan, down 2 yuan. [5] - On July 4, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume was 63400 tons, down 102500 tons from the previous day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 51400 tons, up 7300 tons, and the far - month basis sales volume was 12000 tons, down 109800 tons. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 66.16%, up 1.68% from the previous day. [5] - As of July 4, 2025, the average physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises was 7.91 days, up 0.16 days from June 27, an increase of 2.04% for the eighth consecutive week, and 3.69% higher than the same period last year. [6] - Based on a domestic crushing volume of 9.5 million tons in July, the soybean meal output will reach about 7.5 million tons, with a large surplus compared to the average monthly consumption of about 6.5 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills at the end of June was 510000 tons, and it is expected to continue to rise in late July, possibly reaching over 800000 tons. [6] - In June, due to the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the operating rate of oil mills remained high, and the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 10.11 million tons, a record high for a single month. It is expected that the high operating rate will continue in July, with a full - month crushing volume of about 9.5 million tons. [6] - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil exported a total of 13.4203 million tons of soybeans in 20 working days, with an average daily shipment of 671000 tons, a decrease of 3.86% compared to July last year. [7] - As of the week of July 4, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was 119.72 yuan per head, up from 50.25 yuan per head in the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 26.26 yuan per head, a decrease from a loss of 131.71 yuan per head in the previous week. [7] - In the week of July 3, the average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs was 123.52 kg, down 0.10 kg from the previous week, a slight decrease of 0.08% month - on - month, hitting a new low in more than four months, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.17%. [7] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 30.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3.2%. [7] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [10][13][14][15] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US soybean futures are likely to be weak due to unmet policy expectations and good weather. The domestic M09 contract is affected by the external market. The domestic soybean meal spot market has abundant supply, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16][17] - For live hogs, the short - term supply is tight, but the mid - term supply has pressure. The demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is strong, but the upside is limited by supply and demand factors in the later stage. [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil prices gap down due to OPEC+ exceeding market expectations with its August production increase plan, affecting biofuel raw materials and causing a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. Malaysian palm oil exports increased and production declined in June, with inventory expected to slightly decrease, but the Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation due to the weakening of crude oil and external oils and fats. [6][7] - In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to the off - season demand and weakened import cost support. The arrival speed of imported palm oil is accelerating, and the domestic price follows the external market with mainly rigid demand. Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range as the decline in domestic inventory and the uncertainty of subsequent imports still support the price. [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - As of July 2, the 2024/25 soybean harvest in Argentina reached 100%. The BAGE maintained the soybean production forecast at 50.3 million tons, a 15% increase from the five - year average due to ideal weather conditions during the planting season. [2] - As of July 4, 2025, Brazilian 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected production, compared with 64% at the beginning of June. The sales progress was lower than 77.5% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.1%. [2] - In June, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 1.011 billion tons, a record high. It is expected that the oil mills will maintain a high operating rate in July, with a crushing volume of about 950 million tons. [2] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than expected. The operating rate of domestic oil mills is expected to rise slightly from July 5 to July 11. [3] Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided Views and Strategies - Internationally, the increase in OPEC+ production in August exceeds market expectations, causing international crude oil prices to gap down, which affects biofuel raw materials and leads to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation. [6][7] - Domestically, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range. [7]