Group 1: Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main contract 2601 rose 0.62% to 3091 yuan/ton, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2] - DCE live hog's main contract 2509 fell 5 yuan/ton to 13965 yuan/ton, with the national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live hogs dropping 0.02 yuan/kg to 13.65 yuan/kg [2] - Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract rose 2.41% to 1010 cents/bushel [2] Group 2: Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. Temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was near to above normal [3][4] - 6 - 10 day outlook: there will be sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, and temperature will be near to above normal [4] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On August 8, national major oil mills' imported soybean inventory was 765 million tons, up 46 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 100 million tons, down 4 million tons week - on - week [5] - On August 12, US soybean import cost reached 4555 yuan, up 86 yuan; Brazilian soybean import cost was 4039 yuan, up 103 yuan; Argentine soybean import cost was 3777 yuan, up 75 yuan [5] - On August 11, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume increased to 54000 tons, and the average trading price rose to 3021.79 yuan/ton [5] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 277.45 million tons of soybeans in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 26.51% year - on - year [6] - US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 68%, flowering rate was 91%, and pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, US soybean crushing profit was 3.09 dollars/bushel, up 3.0% week - on - week [6] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 68.49 million tons of soybean meal in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 17.75% year - on - year [6] - As of the week ending August 7, 2025, US soybean export inspection volume was 518066 tons [7] - From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff measure will be suspended for 90 days [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 85.9% [7] Group 4: Analysis and Strategy Soybean Meal - US soybean futures rebounded, boosted by the US president's call and the suspension of the 24% tariff. However, the expectation of a US soybean bumper crop restricts the price rebound space [15][16] - Domestic continuous soybean meal M01 dropped sharply. The basis price rebounded, and the trade flow between regions supported the spot price. Future US soybean imports remain uncertain [17] Live Hogs - On the supply side, farmers are increasing supply by reducing the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, demand is recovering slightly but still limited by high temperatures [19] - It is expected that the near - month contracts will be relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19]

油脂：供应担忧增加 油脂全线收涨 3、美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至 8 月 10 日当周， 美国大豆优良率为 68%，一如市场预期，前一周为 69%，上年同期为 68%。 4、周一美国农业部发布的气象报告显示，展望未来一周，中西部地区将重回高温天气。 全国大部分地区预计将迎来降水，但主要集中在东南部。 5、根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》有关规定，商务部于 2025 年 8 月 12 日发布两 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 유 | 열 | | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 車位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 8476.00 | 8440.00 | 36.00 | 0.43% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 9362.00 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market is bullish today, with supply-side bullish factors disturbing market sentiment, and the coking coal supply-demand expectation still supporting prices. However, to break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures are generally bullish. The closing price of rebar is 3,250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the main contract of hot-rolled coil closes at 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the main contract of iron ore closes at 796.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke rise today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow. Production verification in Shanxi coal mines is advancing, controlling the production of over - producing coal mines in the first half of the year. Some coal mines in Shanxi have issued a 276 - working - day production plan. The expected phased production capacity release is limited. Last week, coal mine output decreased slightly, and the clean coal inventory dropped by 26,000 tons to 2.457 million tons, the lowest since March 2024. The port inventory of imported coking coal decreased significantly by 300,000 tons to 4.6305 million tons, while the daily customs - cleared vehicle number at the Mengmen 288 port has recovered to over 1,300. The blast furnace hot metal output remains above 2.4 million tons, and the sixth round of coke price increase is about to be implemented. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high - level operations. Some offline coal mines have saturated pre - sale orders, supporting coal prices in the short term. However, the speculative demand in the market has cooled down, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced coal is low, and the overall online auction failure rate of coking coal has increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - **Coke**: Last Friday, mainstream coking enterprises proposed a sixth - round price increase for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 11. Mainstream steel mills postponed the implementation, and the specific implementation time is to be determined. Last week, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide increased by 29 yuan to 16 yuan/ton, the coking enterprise's loss slightly shrank, and the capacity utilization rate slightly rose to 74.03%. The blast furnace hot metal output of steel mills remains above 2.4 million tons, and speculative demand increases with the price rise. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 5.28% to 697,300 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills decreased by 1.18% to 6.1928 million tons. The port coke inventory slightly increased, and the total inventory reached a 7 - month low, but the year - on - year increase expanded to 16.62%. In general, under the background of steel mill production restrictions in the mainstream regions in the second half of the month, coke prices are supported by raw coal costs but also have a certain callback risk, and there is still room for game between coking and steel enterprises [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a short - term oscillatory approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the oscillatory market after the price stabilizes from a decline or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]. Summary - Overall, supply - side bullish factors disturb market sentiment, and the coking coal supply - demand expectation still supports prices. The futures market has already priced in part of the supply contraction expectation, and continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is needed to break through the previous high [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by various factors with different price trends. The short - term price of the live hog spot is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract fell by 0.71% to 3072 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mill quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 0.29% to 13970 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs decreased by 0.01 yuan/kg to 13.67 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.80% to 987 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be sporadic showers locally, and the temperature is close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 32nd week (August 2 - 8), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 217.75 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 11, the import cost of US soybeans increased, while that of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans decreased. On August 8, the national main oil mill soybean meal transaction volume decreased. The CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment increased. Canadian rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending July 31 but increased year - on - year. The Mississippi River barge freight rate decreased. China will implement comprehensive regulation of live hog production capacity. The self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was still in the red. The national live hog inventory increased by 2.2% at the end of June, and China's July PPI decreased year - on - year with a narrowing decline month - on - month [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of rapeseed meal, live hogs, soybean meal, and their corresponding bases, as well as charts on Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][13][15][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. The domestic continuous meal main contract has switched. The M09 contract has a support at 3000, and the M01 contract has a short - term support at 3050. The spot price of soybean meal is slowly rising, but the high operating rate of oil mills and inventory pressure restrict price increases. The import of Argentine soybean meal may boost downstream purchasing [17][18] - **Live Hogs**: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking. The spot price is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades [20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) futures market shows a sideways consolidation pattern, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.29% to close at 13,680 yuan/ton. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices, which rose 0.42% overnight to 66.64 cents/pound. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and domestic policy trends [2]. - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this year, and the global cotton supply - demand remains loose with weak US cotton export demand, leading to a weak consolidation of international cotton prices. Domestically, although the cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, it is still at a high level. With the new cotton harvest likely to be abundant this year and weak demand, the upside potential of ZCE cotton is limited [17]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The ZCE main 2509 contract of cotton rose 0.29%, closing at 13,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position and trading volume of ZCE cotton decreased significantly, and the main force has almost completed the roll - over. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,452 (-128) pieces, including 8,172 (-80) registered warehouse receipts and 282 (-48) valid forecasts [3]. - As of August 7, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 32.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. Downstream fabric mills are operating at a low level, and textile enterprises are in the off - season, purchasing raw materials on - demand. Xinjiang's inventory is on the rise, with large - scale mills having a 35 - 40 - day inventory and inland enterprises having a 15 - 20 - day inventory [4][5]. - From August 9 to 14, there will be high - temperature weather above 35°C in most areas of southern and eastern Xinjiang. Some cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang are at high or relatively high risk [5]. - As of the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons (22.62%) from the previous month and 588,400 tons (21.18%) lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.67 days, an increase of 0.44 days from the previous month [5]. - As of July 31, 2025 - 26, Pakistan has harvested over 609,000 bales of seed cotton, while the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association reported a cotton arrival of 301,000 bales [6]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - International: There is a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. Trump's call for China to quadruple soybean orders led to a rise in CBOT soybean prices. MPOB's July report showed that Malaysia's palm - oil inventory accumulation was less than expected. High - frequency data indicated strong palm - oil exports from Malaysia from August 1 - 10, and Indonesia's reaffirmation of the B50 plan starting in 2026 caused a significant afternoon rally in Malaysian palm - oil futures [6][7]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory continued to rise. The increase in July's soybean imports and recent export growth supported prices. Rising South American soybean premiums and trade - risk premiums made soybean oil relatively strong. Palm - oil inventory shifted from increase to decrease, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, with futures prices following external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline. The drop in Canadian rapeseed prices and uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies supported rapeseed oil prices, keeping it in a range - bound oscillation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release its August supply - demand report at 12:00 pm EDT on August 12 (early Wednesday morning Beijing time). Analysts expect the 2025/26 US soybean production to be 4.365 billion bushels, higher than last month's government forecast [2]. - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's July palm - oil exports were 1,309,059 tons (up 3.82% month - on - month), imports were 61,039 tons (down 12.82% month - on - month), production was 1,812,417 tons (up 7.09% month - on - month), and inventory was 2,113,278 tons (up 4.02% month - on - month) [2]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm - oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [2]. - The National Grain and Oil Information Center stated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume slightly decreased last week. As of August 8, it was 2.18 million tons, down 80,000 tons week - on - week, 120,000 tons month - on - month, but up 210,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content. Views and Strategies - International: Strong US soybean harvest expectations, Trump's call on China for soybean orders, less - than - expected Malaysian palm - oil inventory accumulation, strong Malaysian palm - oil exports in early August, and Indonesia's B50 plan influenced international oil - related futures prices [6][7]. - Domestic: Different supply - demand situations and external factors affected the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the domestic market [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today. The supply - demand gap may gradually ease, and the black market will have short - term shock adjustments. The short - term supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Steel exports may weaken marginally, and the loose pattern of ferrosilicon may expand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate around 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, the black commodity futures are generally bullish. The rebar closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the iron ore main contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1] Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week, but the profitability rate of steel mills increased by 3.03% to 68.4%. The hot metal output is still at a relatively high level, and steel mills have a weak willingness to actively reduce production. In the short term, it still supports the rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. During the recent alloy centralized steel procurement period, the market expects the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to be further released, which has a certain positive impact on the market. However, northern steel mills are facing production restrictions due to the military parade, and the overall start - up situation of steel mills needs to be continuously tracked [1] Supply - Last week, the weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4700 tons from the previous week; the weekly output of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 195,825 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. Driven by the warming of the alloy market, the production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises have been repaired, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start production has continued to rise. The supply has a further growth trend, which may have a negative impact on the market in the short term. However, there are still calls for "anti - involution", and the market expects the alloy output to shrink in the future. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is facing a certain long - short game, and attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant policies [1] Cost - For ferrosilicon, with the news of price increases for raw materials such as semi - coke and electricity, the cost support for ferrosilicon has strengthened, which is positive for the futures price. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore market remained on the sidelines at the beginning of the week, with prices fluctuating at a high level and relatively stable; the spot price of coke remained stable, and the sixth round of price increase is still under negotiation. Overall, the cost side of silicomanganese is stable and slightly strong, which may support the market [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

豆粕生猪：美豆出口利好 豆粕期现跟涨 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗兴 THERE FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 3094 | 3078 | 16.00 | 0.52% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 2773 | 2760 | 13.00 | 0.47% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 3045 | 3031 | 14.00 | 0.46% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 01 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 2506 | 2469 | 37.00 | 1.50% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 8月8日 | 元 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, with the main force gradually shifting to the next contract. The ICE cotton slightly declined, dropping 0.84% overnight to close at 66.36 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States, the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - Internationally, due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and the weak export demand for US cotton, the international cotton price generally maintains a weak consolidation trend. Domestically, although the de - stocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it remains at a high level. The main contract is in the process of position - shifting. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and the continued slump in demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The ZCE main contract 2509 of cotton decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, and the main force is shifting contracts. The ICE cotton dropped 0.84% overnight, closing at 66.36 cents/pound [2]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 8, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,582 (-95) sheets, including 8,252 (-77) registered warehouse receipts and 330 (-18) valid forecasts [3]. - In July, enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above accounted for 38.78%, a decrease of 10.16 percentage points from the previous month; those with an operating rate of 61% - 89% accounted for 38.78%, an increase of 11.12 percentage points; those with an operating rate of 31% - 60% accounted for 22.45%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points; and no enterprises had an operating rate below 30%, the same as the previous month [4][5]. - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [5]. - In the week of July 31, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment was 2,041 tons. The carry - over to the 2025/26 new - year cotton was 135,715 tons. As of the same period, the net signing of 2025/26 - year land cotton was 24,789 tons, and the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,202 tons. The shipment of the new year has not started. In the week, 7,099 tons of 2026/27 - year land cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was signed for the next year. China's net signing volume of 2025/26 - year land cotton was - 23 tons and the shipment was 0 tons. 522 tons of Pima cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was shipped. 249 tons of new - year cotton resources were signed [5]. - As of July 31, 2025, China had cumulatively signed and imported 169,000 tons of US cotton in the 2024/25 year, accounting for 6.07% of the signed US cotton; the cumulative shipment of US cotton was 166,000 tons, accounting for 6.31% of the total US cotton shipment and 98.68% of China's signed volume [6]. - In June, China imported 560 million US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%, including 360 million US dollars of imported yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%, and 200 million US dollars of imported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In terms of exports, in June, China exported 6.92 billion US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, including 1.24 billion US dollars of exported yarn, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and 5.68 billion US dollars of exported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [6]. 3.3. Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits, yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11][12]. 3.4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The future policies and sanctions of the Trump administration after August 8 can be continuously monitored. The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand and weak export demand [14]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is de - stocking well but remains at a high level. The main contract is shifting positions. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14].

1. Market Review - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract closed at 3031 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2]. - DCE live hog's main 2509 contract closed at 13870 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous trading day, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 13.71 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day [2]. - CBOT US soybeans' main contract dropped 0.53% to 985 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - The Midwest planting belt in the US will have rain this week, with favorable weather conditions. There were mostly dry conditions from last Friday to Sunday, and local showers on Monday. Temperatures were below normal before Monday and will gradually rise later in the week. The growth conditions for corn and soybeans are very favorable [3][4]. 3. Macro and Industry News - Analysts expect the USDA's August global agricultural supply - demand report to show that the global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 127.42 million tons [5]. - On August 7, the import cost of US soybeans was 4433 yuan, down 23 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3884 yuan, down 42 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3686 yuan, down 32 yuan [5]. - On August 6, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume shrank. The total trading volume was 268,500 tons, down 1,689,900 tons from the previous day. The average trading price was 2988.85 yuan/ton, down 5.88 yuan/ton [5]. - Analysts expect the EU 27 and the UK's rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season to be 20.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast [5]. - Analysts expect the USDA's August report to show that the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.365 billion bushels, up from the 4.335 billion bushels forecast in July [6]. - Analysts expect the USDA's August report to show that the US soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 season will average 347 million bushels, and 349 million bushels for the 2025/26 season [6]. - Brazil exported 12,257,325.36 tons of soybeans in July, with a daily average export volume of 532,927.19 tons, up 9% from the same period last year [6]. - In July, the northern large - scale farms' completion rate was 94 - 97%, and about 95% in the southwest. The market is expected to remain weak in the early part of the month [6]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 6.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93.6% [7]. - In the first seven months of this year, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. In July, the total import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [7]. 4. Analysis and Strategies Soybean Meal - US soybean futures hit a new low, dragging down the overall soybean meal market. The market is awaiting the USDA's supply - demand report on August 13. US soybean ending stocks and production are expected to increase slightly, having a neutral - bearish impact [15]. - The domestic M09 contract of Dalian soybean meal is affected by the external market and oscillates downward, with support at 2970 yuan/ton. The M01 contract is relatively strong, with support at 3050 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot price of soybean meal is resistant to decline, and traders are strongly willing to hold prices. Feed enterprises' physical inventory of soybean meal is generally about a week, and their total position is maintained at 30 - 40 days [15]. Live Hogs - On the supply side, the supply may decrease at the beginning of the month and then recover. The government has proposed measures to control production capacity [18]. - On the demand side, the supply of hogs is sufficient, and the slaughterhouse's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but high temperatures still suppress demand [18]. - In the short term, the price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly and weakly [18].