表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 会口期货 THERE FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 录日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 3091 | 3072 | 19.00 | 0.62% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 2797 | 2782 | 15.00 | 0.54% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 3038 | 3019 | 19.00 | 0.63% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 2562 | 2455 | 107.00 | 4.36% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 2462 | 2407 | 55.00 | 2.29% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 09 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 2653 | 2 ...

油脂：供应担忧增加 油脂全线收涨 3、美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至 8 月 10 日当周， 美国大豆优良率为 68%，一如市场预期，前一周为 69%，上年同期为 68%。 4、周一美国农业部发布的气象报告显示，展望未来一周，中西部地区将重回高温天气。 全国大部分地区预计将迎来降水，但主要集中在东南部。 5、根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》有关规定，商务部于 2025 年 8 月 12 日发布两 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 유 | 열 | | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 車位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 8476.00 | 8440.00 | 36.00 | 0.43% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 8月12日 | 元/吨 | 9362.00 | ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by various factors with different price trends. The short - term price of the live hog spot is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract fell by 0.71% to 3072 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mill quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 0.29% to 13970 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs decreased by 0.01 yuan/kg to 13.67 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.80% to 987 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be sporadic showers locally, and the temperature is close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 32nd week (August 2 - 8), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 217.75 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 11, the import cost of US soybeans increased, while that of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans decreased. On August 8, the national main oil mill soybean meal transaction volume decreased. The CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment increased. Canadian rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending July 31 but increased year - on - year. The Mississippi River barge freight rate decreased. China will implement comprehensive regulation of live hog production capacity. The self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was still in the red. The national live hog inventory increased by 2.2% at the end of June, and China's July PPI decreased year - on - year with a narrowing decline month - on - month [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of rapeseed meal, live hogs, soybean meal, and their corresponding bases, as well as charts on Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][13][15][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. The domestic continuous meal main contract has switched. The M09 contract has a support at 3000, and the M01 contract has a short - term support at 3050. The spot price of soybean meal is slowly rising, but the high operating rate of oil mills and inventory pressure restrict price increases. The import of Argentine soybean meal may boost downstream purchasing [17][18] - **Live Hogs**: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking. The spot price is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades [20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) futures market shows a sideways consolidation pattern, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.29% to close at 13,680 yuan/ton. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices, which rose 0.42% overnight to 66.64 cents/pound. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and domestic policy trends [2]. - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this year, and the global cotton supply - demand remains loose with weak US cotton export demand, leading to a weak consolidation of international cotton prices. Domestically, although the cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, it is still at a high level. With the new cotton harvest likely to be abundant this year and weak demand, the upside potential of ZCE cotton is limited [17]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The ZCE main 2509 contract of cotton rose 0.29%, closing at 13,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position and trading volume of ZCE cotton decreased significantly, and the main force has almost completed the roll - over. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,452 (-128) pieces, including 8,172 (-80) registered warehouse receipts and 282 (-48) valid forecasts [3]. - As of August 7, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 32.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. Downstream fabric mills are operating at a low level, and textile enterprises are in the off - season, purchasing raw materials on - demand. Xinjiang's inventory is on the rise, with large - scale mills having a 35 - 40 - day inventory and inland enterprises having a 15 - 20 - day inventory [4][5]. - From August 9 to 14, there will be high - temperature weather above 35°C in most areas of southern and eastern Xinjiang. Some cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang are at high or relatively high risk [5]. - As of the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons (22.62%) from the previous month and 588,400 tons (21.18%) lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.67 days, an increase of 0.44 days from the previous month [5]. - As of July 31, 2025 - 26, Pakistan has harvested over 609,000 bales of seed cotton, while the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association reported a cotton arrival of 301,000 bales [6]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - International: There is a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. Trump's call for China to quadruple soybean orders led to a rise in CBOT soybean prices. MPOB's July report showed that Malaysia's palm - oil inventory accumulation was less than expected. High - frequency data indicated strong palm - oil exports from Malaysia from August 1 - 10, and Indonesia's reaffirmation of the B50 plan starting in 2026 caused a significant afternoon rally in Malaysian palm - oil futures [6][7]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory continued to rise. The increase in July's soybean imports and recent export growth supported prices. Rising South American soybean premiums and trade - risk premiums made soybean oil relatively strong. Palm - oil inventory shifted from increase to decrease, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, with futures prices following external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline. The drop in Canadian rapeseed prices and uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies supported rapeseed oil prices, keeping it in a range - bound oscillation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release its August supply - demand report at 12:00 pm EDT on August 12 (early Wednesday morning Beijing time). Analysts expect the 2025/26 US soybean production to be 4.365 billion bushels, higher than last month's government forecast [2]. - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's July palm - oil exports were 1,309,059 tons (up 3.82% month - on - month), imports were 61,039 tons (down 12.82% month - on - month), production was 1,812,417 tons (up 7.09% month - on - month), and inventory was 2,113,278 tons (up 4.02% month - on - month) [2]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm - oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [2]. - The National Grain and Oil Information Center stated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume slightly decreased last week. As of August 8, it was 2.18 million tons, down 80,000 tons week - on - week, 120,000 tons month - on - month, but up 210,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content. Views and Strategies - International: Strong US soybean harvest expectations, Trump's call on China for soybean orders, less - than - expected Malaysian palm - oil inventory accumulation, strong Malaysian palm - oil exports in early August, and Indonesia's B50 plan influenced international oil - related futures prices [6][7]. - Domestic: Different supply - demand situations and external factors affected the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the domestic market [7].

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（8.11） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 现货价格 基差 | 涨跌幅 | | | | 螺纹 | 3250 35 80 | 1.09% | 3330 | | | 热卷 | 3465 44 | 1.29% | 3460 | -5 | | 铁矿 | 796.5 6.5 | 0.82% | 769 | -27.5 | | 焦煤 | 1256 36.5 | 2.99% | 980 | -276 | | 焦炭 | 1681 32.5 | 1.97% | 1431 | -250 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体偏多头。螺纹收于3250元/吨，上涨1.09%；热卷主力 | | | | | | 合约收于3465元/吨，上涨1.29%；铁矿今日主力合约收于796.5元/吨；双焦今 | | | | | | 天上涨，焦煤继续领涨涨幅接近3%。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 需求方面，上周Mysteel统计247家钢厂日均铁水产量为240.32万吨，环比上周 ...

豆粕生猪：美豆出口利好 豆粕期现跟涨 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗兴 THERE FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 3094 | 3078 | 16.00 | 0.52% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 2773 | 2760 | 13.00 | 0.47% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 3045 | 3031 | 14.00 | 0.46% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 01 | 8月8日 | 元/吨 | 2506 | 2469 | 37.00 | 1.50% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 8月8日 | 元 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, with the main force gradually shifting to the next contract. The ICE cotton slightly declined, dropping 0.84% overnight to close at 66.36 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States, the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - Internationally, due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and the weak export demand for US cotton, the international cotton price generally maintains a weak consolidation trend. Domestically, although the de - stocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it remains at a high level. The main contract is in the process of position - shifting. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and the continued slump in demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The ZCE main contract 2509 of cotton decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, and the main force is shifting contracts. The ICE cotton dropped 0.84% overnight, closing at 66.36 cents/pound [2]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 8, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,582 (-95) sheets, including 8,252 (-77) registered warehouse receipts and 330 (-18) valid forecasts [3]. - In July, enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above accounted for 38.78%, a decrease of 10.16 percentage points from the previous month; those with an operating rate of 61% - 89% accounted for 38.78%, an increase of 11.12 percentage points; those with an operating rate of 31% - 60% accounted for 22.45%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points; and no enterprises had an operating rate below 30%, the same as the previous month [4][5]. - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [5]. - In the week of July 31, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment was 2,041 tons. The carry - over to the 2025/26 new - year cotton was 135,715 tons. As of the same period, the net signing of 2025/26 - year land cotton was 24,789 tons, and the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,202 tons. The shipment of the new year has not started. In the week, 7,099 tons of 2026/27 - year land cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was signed for the next year. China's net signing volume of 2025/26 - year land cotton was - 23 tons and the shipment was 0 tons. 522 tons of Pima cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was shipped. 249 tons of new - year cotton resources were signed [5]. - As of July 31, 2025, China had cumulatively signed and imported 169,000 tons of US cotton in the 2024/25 year, accounting for 6.07% of the signed US cotton; the cumulative shipment of US cotton was 166,000 tons, accounting for 6.31% of the total US cotton shipment and 98.68% of China's signed volume [6]. - In June, China imported 560 million US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%, including 360 million US dollars of imported yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%, and 200 million US dollars of imported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In terms of exports, in June, China exported 6.92 billion US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, including 1.24 billion US dollars of exported yarn, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and 5.68 billion US dollars of exported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [6]. 3.3. Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits, yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11][12]. 3.4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The future policies and sanctions of the Trump administration after August 8 can be continuously monitored. The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand and weak export demand [14]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is de - stocking well but remains at a high level. The main contract is shifting positions. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14].

豆粕生猪：静待美农报告指引 豆粕期现波动收窄 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 毛目朗등 JIDGHI FILLURE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 車位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月7日 | 元/吨 | 3078 | 3072 | 6.00 | 0.20% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 8月7日 | 元/吨 | 2760 | 2762 | -2.00 | -0.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月7日 | 元/吨 | 3031 | 3026 | 5.00 | 0.17% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 8月7日 | 元/吨 | 2469 | 2463 | 6.00 | 0.24% | | 期货 | CZCE采用柏: 05 | 8月7日 ...