Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Trading volume sharply declined, and the contract is in the process of position transfer. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand is still weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengzhou cotton's main 2509 contract decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume decreased significantly, and the contract is in the position - transfer stage. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 7, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,677 (-135) sheets, with registered warehouse receipts at 8,329 (-135) sheets and valid forecasts at 348 (+0) sheets [3]. - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts that the global cotton trade volume will remain stable at 9.7 million tons. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 25.9 million tons, slightly exceeding the expected consumption of 25.6 million tons. India will maintain its position as the country with the largest cotton - planting area, accounting for 38% of the global total. China is expected to continue leading in cotton production, accounting for 24% of the global total, and remain the largest cotton consumer, with an expected consumption of 8.2 million tons, accounting for 32% of the global total. The ICAC estimates the cotton price for the next season to range from 57 to 94 cents/pound, with a median of 73 cents/pound [3][4]. - As of August 4, 2025, the cotton flowering rate in Xinjiang was about 98%, a 3.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The flower positions were mainly on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, with an average boll number of 8.6, an increase of 1.4 from the previous period [4]. - US President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continuous import of Russian oil. The new tariff will take effect 21 days after August 7, and the comprehensive tax rate for some Indian goods will rise to 50% [4]. - The cotton - picking operation in South Texas, USA, has expanded, and there has been continuous rainfall in the southeastern cotton - growing area. In Brazil, the cotton - picking progress in the main production area continues to advance. As of August 1, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state increased by 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% month - on - month, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year [5]. 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The situation of the war makes an immediate cease - fire unlikely. The international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand [16]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory has been decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The main contract is in the position - transfer stage. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand remains weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16].

| | | | 脂 网 | 日 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 8月7日 | 元/吨 | | | 0.00 | | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 8月7日 | 元/吨 | 8406.00 8950.00 | 8406.00 8970.00 | -20.00 | 0.00% -0.22% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 8月7日 | 元/吨 | 9496.00 | 9562.00 | -66.00 | -0.69% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 8月6日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 985.25 | 990.50 | -5.25 | -0.53% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 8月6日 | 美分/磅 | 53.61 | 53.38 | 0.23 | 0.43% | | | MDE棕榈油主力 | 8月6日 | 令吉/吨 | 4267.00 | 4290.00 | -23.00 | -0.54% | | ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the deterioration of the US employment market may delay the Fed's policy shift, and investors are betting on an early start of the Fed's cyclical interest rate cuts. Due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the destocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it is still at a high level. With high - yield new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,812 (-99) sheets, including 8,464 (-99) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - In July 2025, the China Garment E - commerce Prosperity Index was 49.62, down 0.72 from the previous month. The sub - indexes such as production and e - commerce also declined. The garment e - commerce industry entered the off - season in July, and the prosperity index decreased [3][4]. - On August 6, the average arrival price of 3128 lint cotton nationwide was 15,122 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the price of 32s pure - cotton yarn ring - spun was 21,615 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton; the spinning profit was - 1,019.2 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. Rising raw material cotton prices led to a decrease in the immediate spinning profit of textile enterprises [4]. - As of August 3, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average [4]. - As of the week ending August 2, Egypt's net cotton export contracts were 615 tons, a 56.4% increase from the previous week, all of which were Giza 94 cotton [4]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, spreads, textile profits, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [1][5][6][9][11][13]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. International cotton prices are in a weak consolidation state due to loose supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is destocking well but remains high. With potential high - yield new cotton and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound momentum of US soybean futures is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Domestic DCE bean meal M09 may maintain a wide - range shock, and the far - month basis trading volume of bean meal has increased significantly. For live pigs, the short - term price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [17][18][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - DCE bean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 3026 yuan/ton. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. DCE live pig main 2509 contract decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 13810 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 13.84 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.40% to 991 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - The weather in the US Midwest planting belt is favorable this week. There will be rain, and the temperature will be lower than normal in the early part of the week and then rise later [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased by 0.36% to 1071000 tons, and contract volume increased by 44.53% to 6557000 tons. On August 6, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased. On August 5, domestic mainstream oil mills' bean meal trading volume soared, with the basis trading volume increasing significantly. As of the week of August 1, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 1.12% from the previous week. Brazil's 2025/26 and 2024/25 soybean sales ratios are lower than the same period last year. As of August 3, the EU's 2025/26 soybean and bean meal imports are lower than the same period last year. Pig prices are expected to be weak in the first ten - day of August and may rebound in the last ten - day. In the week of July 31, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate increased. In July, the global and Asian manufacturing PMIs decreased. In June, US exports and imports decreased [5][6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on bean meal, rapeseed meal, live pig prices, and their basis, as well as Chinese soybean and bean meal inventories [10][12][16]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategy - Bean meal: US soybean futures are under pressure from demand concerns, and the domestic DCE bean meal M09 may be range - bound. The far - month basis trading volume of bean meal has increased due to oil mills' promotion and market concerns about future soybean supply. Live pigs: Supply may first decrease and then increase, and demand recovery is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [17][18][19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The black - series commodity futures were generally bullish on August 6, 2025. The prices of coking coal and coke were strongly supported. The anti - involution expectation in the coal industry and supply - side disturbances were likely to last until around the National Day. The fundamentals of coke showed a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly, but the expectation of further price increases was weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Overview - On August 6, the overall black - series commodity futures were bullish. The closing price of rebar was 3234 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3451 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 794.5 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke rose, with coking coal leading the gain by over 6% [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: Market rumors about the investigation of over - production in Shanxi coal mines from January to June reignited the "anti - involution" expectation in the coal industry. The expectation of production restrictions before the September 3 parade was strengthening, and rumors such as the 276 - working - day notice and the end of the coal supply guarantee policy shrank the supply expectation. In reality, coal mines had good sales, and the pit - mouth coal prices remained firm. With high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production, the rigid demand for coking coal was strong, and inventories were low. Last week, the inventories of 523 sample mines, coal - washing plants, and port - imported coking coal decreased, while the inventories of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased [1]. - **Coke**: On August 4, steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places raised the coke purchase prices. With the high daily pig - iron output of steel mills and the positive purchase attitude of most steel mills and the trading sector, the inventories of independent coke enterprises decreased to a 9 - month low. Supported by cost and demand, the fundamentals were in a tight - balance state, and the prices had the momentum to run steadily and strongly. However, as steel mills' attitudes were clear and the trading sector started to sell, the expectation of further price increases weakened [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The prices of coking coal and coke futures were affected by market sentiment. After the previous sharp rise, the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, and price support remained. The anti - involution expectation was repeated, and supply - side disturbances in coal mines were expected to last until around the National Day [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply is expected to be loose due to the promising harvest in the US and the expected expansion of planting area in Brazil, which may limit the rebound space of US soybean futures prices. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 remains strong, with the focus shifting to the M01 contract. Although the spot price of soybean meal has risen, the high inventory of oil mills and the low basis have led to a dull market sentiment. The market's concern about supply shortages may be over - estimated, and there is no fundamental support for a significant price increase [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may first decrease and then increase in the short term. The demand has slightly recovered, but the high temperature still restricts the purchase of pork. The short - term price is mainly determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed down 0.03% at 3023 yuan/ton, while the coastal oil mills' quotes rose by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main 2509 contract dropped 55 yuan/ton to 13885 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of live pigs was stable at 13.88 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.66% to 995 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - The weather in the US Midwest planting belt is favorable this week, with rain expected. The temperature will be lower than normal in the early part of the week and then rise. Although there has been high - temperature and extreme weather recently, the growth conditions of corn and soybeans are still good [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - In the 31st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 655.59 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased by 0.14% to 104.16 million tons [5]. - On August 5, the import cost of US soybeans decreased by 2 yuan to 4455 yuan, while that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 4 yuan to 3848 yuan, and that of Argentine soybeans increased by 17 yuan to 3691 yuan [5]. - On August 4, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal decreased, with spot volume increasing and basis volume decreasing. The average trading price rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week high [5]. - The predicted US soybean production in 2025 is 4.425 billion bushels, and corn production is 16.323 billion bushels, higher than the USDA's latest forecast [6]. - As of July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 47.83401 million tons [6]. - Celeres expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177.2 million tons and export volume to be 110 million tons [6]. - As of August 4, 2025, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.91173 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,790 tons [7]. - In late July, the oversupply in the live pig market due to accelerated slaughter and limited demand growth led to a decline in pig prices. In the fifth week of July 2025, the national live pig ex - factory price dropped to a six - week low [7]. - As of August 3, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the flowering rate was 85%, and the pod - setting rate was 58% [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.4% [8]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pigs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [11][12][15][16]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose, which may limit the rebound of US soybean futures. The domestic DCE M09 remains strong, and the focus is on M01. The high inventory of oil mills, low basis, and flat market sentiment suggest that the current price increase may be due to expected supply shortages rather than fundamental factors [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may fluctuate, and the demand recovery is limited. The short - term price is determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19].

棉花：美棉小幅反弹 郑棉窄幅震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | | | | शुद | 日 度 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 截止 | 单位 | BEF | 文日 | 派联星 | 涨跌幅 | 月同比 | 年同比 | 力史位直 | | | | 收盘价 | 8/5 | 元/吨 | 13675 | 13655 | -20 | -0.15% | -125 | -300 | 27.37% | | | | 成交量 | 8/5 | ਵੇ | 190204 | 123320 | -66884 | -35.16% | 4887 | -157669 | 42.86% | | | CF09 (主力) | 持仓量 | 8/5 | 글 | 304033 | 292430 | -11603 | -3.82% | -253699 | -93132 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased by 1% from the previous week. Driven by short-covering, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak overall. The estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July reached a two-year high, but the market expected the export data at the beginning of August to improve, leading to a resonant rebound of Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic oils. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, but the increase in domestic exports alleviated the inventory pressure to some extent. Recently, the South American soybean premium has been rising continuously, combined with trade risk premiums, soybean oil continued to strengthen. The palm oil inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, continuing the pattern of weak supply and demand. Driven by the rebound of import costs, Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly. Regarding rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory continued to decline, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the rapeseed oil price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending August 1st, the commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.36 million tons, basically flat week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and up 200,000 tons year-on-year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.13 million tons, up 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and flat year-on-year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, basically flat week-on-week, down 40,000 tons month-on-month, and up 230,000 tons year-on-year; the palm oil inventory was 570,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 40,000 tons month-on-month, and down 30,000 tons year-on-year [2]. - As of the week ending August 3rd, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with the market expectation of 69%, down from 70% in the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The soybean flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% in the previous week, the same as 85% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 86% [2]. - Brokerage StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous season due to increased planting area and crop yield. StoneX also expected the US soybean production in 2025 to reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre [2]. - Reuters survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 was expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; the production was expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; the export volume was expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June [3]. - Brazil officially implemented a new biofuel blending standard on August 1st, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% (E30) and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) [4]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased, and CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak. The estimated high inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July was expected to improve in export data at the beginning of August, leading to a resonant rebound with domestic oils. Domestically, soybean oil inventory rose but was alleviated by exports, and soybean oil strengthened due to rising premiums and risk premiums. Palm oil inventory decreased, and Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly due to rising import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory declined, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02- ...