-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 螺纹--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.30） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3315 14 0.42% 3450 135 | | 热卷 | 3483 28 0.81% 3450 -33 | | 铁矿 | 789 -3.5 -0.44% 775 -14 | | 焦煤 | 1117 29.5 2.71% 980 -137 | | 焦炭 | 1676.5 64.5 4.00% 1359 -317.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货有涨有跌。螺纹收于3315元/吨，上涨0.42%；热卷主力合 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures continued to decline, with the main 2509 contract falling 1.07% to 13,925 yuan/ton, breaking below the 14,000 yuan mark. The lack of strong support for Zhengmian prices is due to weak procurement willingness from downstream enterprises. The ICE cotton rose 0.1% overnight, closing at 68.3 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, China-US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the US Treasury's borrowing expectation in the third quarter has exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase. After the debt ceiling was raised, debt issuance accelerated. The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. The impact of the raised US debt ceiling on the second-half interest rate cuts is worth monitoring. The China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on July 28 are important for normalizing bilateral relations in the second half and bring some imagination space to the market. Globally, due to factors such as continuous loose cotton supply and demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the de-stocking trend of commercial cotton inventories is positive, the inventory level remains high. There is a high possibility of a bumper new cotton harvest this year, and combined with the weak demand, the upside space for Zhengmian is limited [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell 1.07%, closing at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price continued to decline and broke below the 14,000 yuan mark. The ICE cotton rose 0.1% overnight, closing at 68.3 cents/pound. Downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and Zhengmian prices lack strong support. Future attention should be paid to external market trends, China-US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,504 (-72) sheets, including 9,156 (-70) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (-2) valid forecasts [3]. - From July 21 - 25, 2025, the weekly average price of domestic 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,890 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 174 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of Indian 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,956 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 108 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of Vietnamese 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,702 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton [5]. - As of the week ending July 27, the budding rate of US cotton was 80% (compared to 86% last year and a five-year average of 83%, and 71% the previous week), the bolling rate was 44% (33% the previous week, 52% last year, and a five-year average of 46%), and the good-to-excellent rate was 55% (49% last year) [5]. - Brazil exported 111,700 tons of cotton in the first four weeks of July, with a daily average export volume of 5,900 tons, a 19% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 7,300 tons in July last year. The total export volume in July last year was 167,200 tons [5]. - Last week, Xinjiang cotton was in the peak flowering and bolling stage, with some areas in Turpan already in the boll-opening and lint-releasing stage. High temperatures and low precipitation in most parts of the region were unfavorable for cotton growth. The development period of cotton was advanced due to high temperatures, increasing the proportion of pre-dog days peaches and raising the risk of premature aging [5]. - Recently, there was light rainfall in some cotton-growing areas in Argentina, with the most concentrated area receiving 45mm of rainfall, slowing down the new cotton picking progress. In the short term, the weather in the cotton-growing areas is expected to clear up, with rising temperatures promoting the resumption of picking operations. As of mid-July, the new cotton harvest progress in Argentina was 75%, 15 percentage points slower than the same period last year, and the total output may be between 250,000 - 270,000 tons [6]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits,棉纱 import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non-commercial positions [6][7][10][11]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Treasury's borrowing expectation in the third quarter has exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase. After the debt ceiling was raised, debt issuance accelerated. The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. The impact of the raised US debt ceiling on the second-half interest rate cuts is worth monitoring. The China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on July 28 are important for normalizing bilateral relations in the second half and bring some imagination space to the market [13]. - Globally, due to factors such as continuous loose cotton supply and demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the de-stocking trend of commercial cotton inventories is positive, the inventory level remains high. There is a high possibility of a bumper new cotton harvest this year, and combined with the weak demand, the upside space for Zhengmian is limited [13].

豆粕生猪：美豆优良率超预期 豆粕小幅回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 | | 金日期货 JIDGHI FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 南位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期高 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月29日 | 元/吨 | 3028 | 3041 | -13.00 | -0.43% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 7月29日 | 元/吨 | 2744 | 2751 | -7.00 | -0.25% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月29日 | 元/吨 | 2983 | 2990 | -7.00 | -0.23% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 7月29日 | 元/吨 | 2379 | 2393 | -14.00 | -0.59% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 05 | 7月29日 | 元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply has generally improved, demand has declined, and the supply - demand structure has weakened on a month - on - month basis. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, making it difficult to return to a downward trend. The strategy is to mainly wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 29, black - series commodity futures showed mixed performance. Rebar closed at 3347 yuan/ton, up 1.98%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3503 yuan/ton, up 2.01%; iron ore's main contract closed at 798 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal's decline exceeding 6% [1] Market Analysis - Market sentiment has recovered. Iron ore futures rose with finished products, ending a four - day losing streak. There is a need for a rebound after continuous decline, and the prices of finished products and raw materials have risen in tandem. Long - process steel mills' profits have not been significantly compressed. Short - term foreign ore supply has decreased, domestic demand remains high, and the short - term accumulation pressure of port inventories is small, so iron ore is in a relatively strong real - world situation [1] - Last week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.16 tons to 1336.5 tons, for the fourth consecutive week of small declines. Production decreased slightly by 1.22 tons, and the weekly change in apparent demand was small. The off - season characteristics are not obvious. Terminal market demand in the off - season maintains resilience, and the profitability of steel mills is good. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills has increased to 63.64%, a nine - month high. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate have slightly declined, reaching 83.46% and 90.81% respectively. The daily average pig iron output has decreased by 0.21 tons to 242.23 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09%. In the traditional off - season, iron ore demand maintains resilience [1] - The total global iron ore shipment volume this period increased by 91.8 tons week - on - week to 3200.9 tons, reaching a one - month high and being at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. Australia's shipment volume increased sharply by 230.2 tons to 1859.6 tons, an increase of over 14%. Brazil's shipment volume decreased slightly, and the shipment volume from non - mainstream regions decreased by over 20%. From July 21 to July 27, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2319.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192.1 tons. Port inventories decreased again. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 14281.73 tons, a decrease of 106.83 tons from the previous Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 13686.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.63 tons [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - based approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures showed a slight decline and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also dropped slightly overnight. The subsequent focus should be on the external market trends, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - The global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. In the short - term, Zhengmian may have some upward space, but high - level risks should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the room for cotton price increase is limited due to the high inventory and the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad [14]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - The main contract of Zhengmian 2509 fell 0.67%, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ICE cotton futures dropped 0.74% overnight, closing at 68.23 cents/pound [2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,576 (-57) sheets, including 9,226 (-39) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - The China Cotton Textile Prosperity Index rebounded above the boom - bust line in June, reaching 50.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from May. Among the 7 sub - indices, the raw material procurement, raw material inventory, production, and enterprise operation indices were above the critical point, the product sales and product inventory indices were below the critical point, and the enterprise confidence index was at the critical point [3][4]. - As of the week ending July 22, the long positions of non - commercial funds in CFTC US cotton futures were 64,278 (+344) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week; the short positions were 91,528 (+2,511) sheets, changing from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE positions were 218,828 (+7,061) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 12.5%, down 0.6 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked, delivered, and processed lint cotton were all 6.676 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 773,000 tons and increases of 583,000 tons compared to the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.194 million tons and an increase of 1.03 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [5]. - On July 25, 2025, the estimated arrival volume of Indian cotton was 11,100 bales (170 kg per bale), or 1,887 tons. Since the 2024/25 season (October to September of the following year), the cumulative arrival volume of Indian cotton was 29,938,100 bales, or 5,089,477 tons [5]. 3. Data Charts - The reports include charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 4. Analysis and Strategy - The US tariff policy will continue to affect the global economy. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose expectation. Zhengmian lacks a clear driving force and maintains a volatile trend. In the short - term, there may be some upward space, but high - level risks should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory and loose supply - demand pattern limit the upward space of cotton prices [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period, with favorable weather in major producing areas, causing some long - positions to leave. CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased month - on - month, and the prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil are weak, increasing the pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures to correct [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil spot supply is abundant, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is crucial for future imported soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly rebounded, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually falling, but the spot supply is still sufficient. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, and ICE rapeseed fluctuates narrowly. The uncertainty of imports still supports rapeseed oil prices, which are expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Argentina cuts export tariffs on most agricultural products, including reducing the tariff on sunflower seeds from 7% to 4%, soybeans from 33% to 26%, and soybean meal and soybean oil from 31% to 24.5% [2] - The US and the EU reach a major trade agreement, with the EU imposing a unified 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US, lower than the original 30% [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports will decrease by 5.1% in 2025, from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons due to increased domestic consumption [2] - As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China is 1088100 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons or 0.34% compared to last week [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. Some long - positions leave waiting for the result of the new round of US trade negotiations, and CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil faces increased correction pressure due to export decline, production increase, and weak prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and the Sino - US trade negotiation result is crucial for future imports. Palm oil maintains a weak supply - demand pattern and follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is falling, but supply is still sufficient, and the uncertainty of imports supports its price, which is expected to range - bound in the short term [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton futures edged up slightly and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also rose slightly after the latest USDA raised the forecast for US cotton production. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential due to the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou cotton fell 0.14%, with the final closing price at 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The US cotton rose 0.66% overnight, closing at 68.74 cents/pound. The latest USDA raised the US cotton production forecast, leading to a slight increase in ICE cotton futures [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 25, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,615 (-57) sheets, including 9,265 (-72) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+15) valid forecasts [3]. - As of July 24, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises was 31.7 days, up 0.63% week - on - week, reaching a three - month high and higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [3]. - As of July 24, 2025, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year - on - year and 583,000 tons more than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.44 million tons, an increase of 1.194 million tons year - on - year and 1.03 million tons more than the average of the past four years [5]. - In June 2025, Shanghai's top ten department stores sold 134,100 pieces of clothing, a month - on - month decrease of 65,300 pieces (32.74%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26,900 pieces (16.70%). The total sales amount was 99 million yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 38 million yuan (27.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26 million yuan (20.51%). The average selling price was 739.52 yuan/piece, up 7.39% month - on - month and down 4.58% year - on - year [6]. - As of July 24, the total inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 353,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.28%. The inventory in Shandong's Qingdao and Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was about 288,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.33% [6]. 3.3 Data Charts The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][12]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped for six consecutive weeks to 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, while the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The improvement in unemployment data may affect the interest - rate cut policy [15]. - The global cotton supply - demand is expected to remain loose. In the next one to two weeks, high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas may be unfavorable for cotton growth, which could impact production and market sentiment. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential, but the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices in the medium - to - long - term [15].

豆粕生猪：利空情绪消退 豆粕波幅收窄 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 曲位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 3059 | 3050 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | DCE中期: 05 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2759 | 2753 | 6.00 | 0.22% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 3021 | 3025 | -4.00 | -0.13% | | | CZCE菜籽箱: 01 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2405 | 2412 | -7.00 | -0.29% | | 期货 | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2373 ...

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou Cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, showing a sideways movement with a slight decline at the end. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The overall market sentiment is weak due to good climate in the US cotton - growing areas and a generally weak agricultural products market. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation, and the upward driving force for cotton prices is insufficient in the short - term. Long - term support for price increases is limited due to high inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies, as well as the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, China's main cotton - growing area [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It showed a sideways movement throughout the day with a slight decline before the close. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The US cotton - growing areas have good climate, and the agricultural products market is generally weak, leading to a low - sentiment market. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,695 (- 34) sheets, including 9,382 (- 54) registered warehouse receipts and 313 (+20) valid forecasts [3]. - According to the June 2025 cotton textile enterprise survey report by the China Cotton Association, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded in June, the cotton spot basis was firm, but the downstream market did not follow the price increase. The yarn - cotton price difference narrowed again, and textile enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous month. Among them, 21.3% of enterprises increased their cotton inventory, 39.6% decreased it, and 39.1% kept it basically unchanged [3][4]. - The finished product inventory of textile enterprises increased in June, while the raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.2 days, an increase of 4.9 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 36.6 days, an increase of 3.7 days from the previous month [4]. - The demand for textiles continued to weaken in June. Some yarn mills started to implement production - limiting measures, and the output decreased month - on - month. However, due to a higher national production capacity base than last year, the output still increased year - on - year. The yarn price continued to fall, and the operating difficulties of enterprises increased. The subsequent operating rate may continue to decline. The yarn sales rate was 69%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - From July 24 to 30, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high - temperature weather of 35 - 37°C, with the highest temperature in some areas reaching over 40°C and even over 45°C in parts of Turpan and Hami. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll - setting stage, and there is a high or very high risk of high - temperature heat damage in cotton - growing areas [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The reports provide data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, but no detailed analysis of these charts is provided in the text [6][9][11][14]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - On July 22, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan through social media, reducing the original 25% reciprocal tariff rate to 15%. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open up its agricultural product markets such as rice. The Japanese Prime Minister will listen to a detailed report and may have further communication with Trump. The Trump administration uses tariffs as a tool to ease domestic economic problems. - The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation. The Zhengzhou cotton continued to move sideways, with insufficient upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, the main cotton - growing area. The current situation of loose supply - demand at home and abroad will not change, and the high inventory level limits the upward space for cotton prices in the long - term [16].