Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The market sentiment is low because of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. - In the domestic market, although the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well, it is still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest this year and the weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose 0.66%, closing at 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff measures and the expectation of a bumper harvest, the US cotton fell 1.19% overnight, closing at 66.42 cents/pound on ICE. [2] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 30, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,032 (-123), including 8,684 (-123) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts. - As of July 31, 2025, the national new cotton picking and delivery were basically completed. The national processing rate was 100%, the same as the previous year and the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher than the previous year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.483 million tons, an increase of 1.181 million tons compared with the previous year and 1.05 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. - Argentina's main cotton - producing area, Chaco Province, has completed the new cotton harvest, with the national harvest progress reaching 90% and the processing progress reaching 80%. - As of the week ending July 29, cotton speculators' net short positions increased by 1,467 lots to 52,972 lots. - As of July 24, 2025, the cumulative net signed export of US cotton in the 2024/25 season was 2.783 million tons, reaching 108.35% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.593 million tons, with a shipment rate of 93.17%. [3][4][5] 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions. [7][10][14][15] 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% in July, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. Although the GDP increased by 3% in the second quarter, the deterioration of the employment market has made investors bet on the Fed to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in advance. - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has reduced market enthusiasm. - Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well but still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16]

豆粕生猪：内强外弱延续 豆粕小幅走强 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗冷 MISHI FITURE | | | 粕类生猪每日数据追踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 南位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 3055 | 3037 | 18.00 | 0.59% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 2746 | 2738 | 8.00 | 0.29% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 3024 | 3010 | 14.00 | 0.47% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 01 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 2432 | 2409 | 23.00 | 0.95% | | 期間 | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 2380 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures basically stabilized on August 4. The futures market decline recently cooled the previous positive sentiment, but the spot coal price remained firm due to good sales and pre - orders. The coking coal demand was strong with low inventory. The coke market was in a tight - balance state with positive sentiment and upward price momentum [1]. - After the fourth round of price increase for coke, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, but the inventory decreased, and the demand from steel mills was rigid, so the price had the power to run steadily and strongly [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - On August 4, the closing price of rebar was 3204 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3417 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the iron ore contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures showed a V - shaped trend [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The recent futures market decline cooled the sentiment, and some traders sold to realize profits. However, coal mines had good sales and pre - orders, so the pit - mouth coal price remained firm. The coking coal demand was strong supported by high -开工 rate of downstream coke enterprises and high iron - water output. The inventory was low, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream increasing. Last week, the inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons to 248.3 tons (the lowest since March 2024), the inventory of coal - washing plants decreased by 9.23 tons to 166.38 tons (the lowest in a year), the port inventory decreased by 3.53% to 493.94 tons, and the inventory of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased slightly to 992.73 tons and 803.79 tons respectively (both at the highest in nearly half a year). The market had a fear of high prices, and the proportion of unsold lots increased by 4.5% week - on - week, but the overall transaction price still trended upward [1]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, with the profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants increasing only slightly by 9 yuan to - 45 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises cut production due to losses, affecting the daily output. The supply was tight. With the high daily iron - water output of steel mills, the procurement enthusiasm of steel mills and the intermediate trading links was high, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 8.11% to 73.62 tons (the lowest in 9 months). The cost support was significantly enhanced, and the market sentiment was positive. On August 3, some mainstream steel mills in the Hebei market planned to increase the price of wet coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on August 4, 2025 [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Double - Coking**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The double - coking futures prices declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market had low inventory and strong demand, so there was still price support [1].

油脂月报（2025年7月） 进口前景不明 油脂稳中有涨 冯子悦 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 一 、行情回顾 行情回顾 7月份国内油脂市场整体稳中有升。豆油库存持续累积，夏季消费疲软，但三四季度进口政策的不确定性令市场对后期大豆供应愈发 担忧，北方"还储"和南方出口增强了未来降库预期，7月份豆油期货月线收涨2.61%。菜油供大于求格局显著，国产油菜籽收购价低迷， 中加贸易博弈仍对价格形成支撑，7月菜油期货维持区间震荡，月线小幅收涨1.01%。棕榈油库存累积，下游需求疲软，期价受国际成本 带动冲高， 7月棕榈油期货月线收涨6.84%。 外盘方面，7月CBOT大豆期货震荡走低，月线收跌3.22%，中西部天气状况转好强化了丰产预期，中国减少豆粕用量的政策影响了需 求预期，但美国生柴政策预期将大幅提振其国内需求，大幅提振了美豆油价格并限制了美豆跌幅；国际棕榈油方面，7月上旬至中旬，受 宏观情绪及生物柴油政策利好推动，马棕油一度突破4300林吉特/吨，但下旬因产量回升和出口下滑，马棕价格小幅回落，7月马棕油期 货收涨超5.98%。 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 后市展望 ...

豆粕生猪：美豆失守 1000 关口 豆粕内外走势分化 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 专门期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | TIOSHI EILLIBER | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月1日 | 元/吨 | 3037 | 3036 | 1.00 | 0.03% | | | DCEGRB: 05 | 8月1日 | 元/吨 | 2738 | 2735 | 3.00 | 0.11% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月1日 | 元/吨 | 3010 | 3000 | 10.00 | 0.33% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 8月1日 | 元/吨 | 2409 | 2411 | -2.00 | -0.08% ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（8.01） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

豆粕生猪：美豆丰产预期加强 连粕小幅跟跌 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗宗 THEREL FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 南位 | 全日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 3036 | 3049 | -13.00 | -0.43% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 2735 | 2742 | -7.00 | -0.26% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 3000 | 3010 | -10.00 | -0.33% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 2411 | 2428 | -17.00 | -0.70% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of coking coal and coke declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, with price support still in place. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke remained slightly tight, and the fifth round of price increase for coke started. There was a policy bottom, and buying opportunities after price corrections could be considered [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 31, all black - series commodity futures turned down. The closing price of rebar was 3205 yuan/ton, down 4.19%; the hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3390 yuan/ton, down 3.56%; the iron ore futures closed at 779 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke declined, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down [1] Market Analysis - The decline in the futures market cooled the previous positive sentiment. Some traders sold to realize profits, and the increase in auctions narrowed. Extreme rain in coal - producing areas led to a temporary reduction in coal supply. Coking coal demand remained strong due to high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production. Coal mine pre - sales would last until mid - August. The inventory of washed coal plants and coking coal mines reached low levels. After the fourth round of price increases for coke, the profits of coke enterprises continued to shrink, some reduced production, and supply tightened. Steel mills and traders had good procurement enthusiasm, and coke inventories at coking plants were low. The coking industry decided to raise coke prices starting from July 31 [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, take a short - term oscillatory approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the oscillatory market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

豆粕生猪：中美谈判无进展 豆粕期现齐涨 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗兴 THE FILLER | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 車位 | �日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月30日 | 元/吨 | 3049 | 3028 | 21.00 | 0.69% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 7月30日 | 元/吨 | 2742 | 2744 | -2.00 | -0.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月30日 | 元/吨 | 3010 | 2983 | 27.00 | 0.91% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 7月30日 | 元/吨 | 2428 | 2379 | 49.00 | 2.06% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 7月30日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report indicates that due to the favorable rainy climate in the US Midwest, there are expectations of a good soybean harvest. The agreement to extend the tariff truce by 90 days has led to a narrow - range oscillation in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil shows a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in July, but is supported by the strong international energy market and is oscillating at a high level. In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory is rising, and the news of export orders boosts the market. Palm oil maintains a supply - demand weak pattern and follows import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and future import uncertainties support its price, which is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week of July 23, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 2743.16 million tons [2] - As of last weekend, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China was 2.6094 billion tons, a weekly increase of 165,000 tons. Soybean oil and palm oil inventories increased by 261,000 tons and 164,000 tons respectively [2] - In June, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 856,096 tons, a 3.0% month - on - month increase; rapeseed oil production was 364,592 tons, a 3.22% month - on - month increase; rapeseed meal production was 507,038 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month increase [2] - The IMF raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% in its July 29 report, reflecting stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected actual tariffs between China and the US [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 will exceed 5 million tons, higher than 4.8 million tons in 2024, after India lowered import tariffs [3][4] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the favorable climate in the US Midwest supports the expectation of a good soybean harvest. The extension of the tariff truce leads to a narrow - range oscillation in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in July but is supported by the strong international energy market and oscillates at a high level [7][8] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, and the news of export orders boosts the market. Palm oil maintains a supply - demand weak pattern and follows import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and future import uncertainties support its price, which is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]