| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（4.29） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3100 -38 -1.21% 3250 150 | | 热卷 | 3210 -41 -1.26% 3290 80 | | 铁矿 | 709 2 0.28% 768 59 | | 焦煤 | 932 -22.5 -2.36% 1030 98 | | 焦炭 | 1553 -16 -1.02% 1404 -149 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货除铁矿外全线下跌。螺纹收于3100元/吨，下跌1.21%； | | | 热卷主力合约收于3210元/吨，下跌1.26%；铁矿今日主力合约收于709元/ | | | 吨，小幅上涨0.28%；双焦继续下跌。 | | | 市场分析 | | | 4月24日，韩国对原产于中国的热轧碳钢或合金钢中厚板征收为期四个月的临 | | | 时反倾销税，税率为27.91~38.02%，有效期至2025年8月23日。另外，巴西对 | | | 原产于中国和印度的彩涂板作出反倾销肯定性初裁，但不建议征收临时反倾 | | | 销税;加 ...

豆粕生猪：通关持续扰动 豆粕再创新高 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金门期货 JIORHI FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3077 | 3063 | 14.00 | 0.46% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3049 | 2984 | 65.00 | 2.18% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3059 | 3048 | 11.00 | 0.36% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 2455 | 2432 | 23.00 | 0.95% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 4月2 ...

3、据外媒报道，布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周三表示，未来七天，阿根廷主要农业区 将普遍干燥。干燥条件预计将加快 2024/25 年度的大豆收获。此前大豆收获受阻，因许多田 地土壤水分过剩。 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 脂 | 国 | | 日 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 7846.00 | 7838.00 | 8.00 | 0.10% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 8230.00 | 8218.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 9390.00 | 9396.00 | -6.00 | -0.06% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月23日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1051.50 | 1046.25 | 5.25 | 0.50% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton futures closed flat today, fluctuating around the 13,000 yuan/ton mark. The market sentiment is gradually easing, but trading volume has sharply decreased, and the market lacks upward momentum. The subsequent focus should be on tariff policies. The US cotton rose 2.74% overnight due to the potential easing of tariff policies. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue its oscillating trend. The subsequent marginal impacts of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main 2509 contract closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the market lacked upward drivers. The US cotton rose 2.74% overnight due to potential tariff policy easing [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - In Q1, port cargo throughput reached 42.2 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with domestic and foreign trade increasing by 4.1% and 1.4% respectively. Container throughput reached 83.03 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with domestic and foreign trade routes increasing by 3.6% and 11.5% respectively [3]. - In Kuqa City, 1,800+ cotton planters are operating efficiently, with 1.595 million mu of cotton sown, accounting for 88.61% of the planned area [4]. - In early April 2025, the yarn sales-to-production ratio of sampled enterprises was 98.1%, a month-on-month increase of 2.4 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 8.3 percentage points. The yarn inventory was 29.1 days of sales, a month-on-month decrease of 1.3 days and a year-on-year increase of 0.5 days. The cloth sales-to-production ratio was 96.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points. The cloth inventory was 36.8 days of sales, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 days and a year-on-year increase of 0.3 days [4]. - As of April 21, 2024, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in the 2024/25 season was 6.792731 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.78%. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.428573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.26% [5]. - On April 23, the Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index was 75.1 cents/pound, a 0.35% decrease from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, Trump acknowledged that US tariffs on Chinese imports are too high and expects a significant reduction in tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary also indicated that the China-US tariff war will soon cool down. Domestically, the market driving logic is shifting from "policy expectation-driven" to "reality verification-driven" [13]. - Investors should focus on three key points: the USDA planting area report in late May, the Fed's interest rate decision in mid-June, and the semi-annual reports of Chinese textile enterprises in early July, which may form new price drivers [13]. - Technically, the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract needs to effectively stand above 13,200 yuan/ton to confirm a breakthrough, with strong support at 12,600 yuan/ton. Arbitrage strategies can focus on the opportunity for the repair of the cotton yarn processing fee, which is currently at the 10th percentile of historical levels and has the potential to return to the mean [13]. - The cotton price may remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes, the recovery of downstream orders, extreme weather in major production areas, and macro - policy trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [13].

棉花：美棉受原油提振微幅收涨 郑棉重回万三 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | 截止 | 東区 | 昨日 | A | 涨跌回 | 涨跌幅 | 目同比 | संघीत | 历史位百 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF09 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 成交量 | 4/23 4/23 | 元/吨 ਜੋ | 12795 195069 | 12990 275033 | 195 79964 | 1.52% 40.99% | -660 104600 | -2850 41075 | 15.07% 66.67% | | | (主力) | 持仓量 | 4/23 | ਵੇ | 562752 | 567631 | 4879 | 0.87% | -11290 | 54699 | 90.40% | | | | 注册仓单 | 4/23 | 5K ...

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（4.23） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3137 45 1.46% | | 3150 | 13 | | 热卷 | 3233 1.41% | 45 | 3230 | -3 | | 铁矿 | 727.5 15 2.11% | | 774 | 46.5 | | 焦煤 | 962.5 24 2.56% | | 1030 | 67.5 | | 焦炭 | 1595 48.5 3.14% | | 1404 | -191 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货普遍上涨。螺纹收于3137元/吨，上涨1.46%；热卷主力 | | | | | | 合约收于3233元/吨，上涨1.41%；铁矿今日主力合约收于727.5元/吨，上涨 | | | | | | 2.11%；双焦今天领涨黑色系。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 需求方面，钢厂利润有所回升，高炉铁水产量维持在240万吨以上，短期铁矿 | | | | | | ...

豆粕生猪：库存创三年新低 豆粕基差走阔 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 JIDGHI FIITURE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 車位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 3070 | 3062 | 8.00 | 0.26% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 2988 | 2934 | 54.00 | 1.84% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 3054 | 3045 | 9.00 | 0.30% | | | CZCE菜好拍: 01 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 2421 | 2403 | 18.00 | 0.75% | | | CZCE菜好柏: 05 | 4月22 ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02-29 03-15 03-30 04-14 04-29 05-14 05-29 06-13 06-28 07-13 07-28 08-12 08-27 09-11 09-26 10-11 10-26 11-10 11-25 12-10 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04 ...

棉花：美棉受原油影响下跌 郑棉偏弱震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | 截止 | 单位 | BEF | �日 | 涨跌量 | 涨跌幅 | 目間形 | 电图形 | 历史位置 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | 4/22 | 元/四 | 12910 | 12795 | -115 | -0.89% | -855 | -3075 | 12.26% | | | | 成处量 | 4/22 | ਜੇ | 171504 | 195069 | 23565 | 13.74% | 24636 | -170323 | 54.79% | | | CF09 | 持仓量 | 4/22 | ਵੇ | 528443 | 562752 | 34309 | 6.49% | -16169 | 53948 | 89.94% | | | (主力) | | | | | | | | ...

油脂：豆油库存低于预期 油脂集体收涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 脂 | इ | 日 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 7808.00 | 7722.00 | 86.00 | 1.11% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 8130.00 | 8068.00 | 62.00 | 0.77% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 9385.00 | 9280.00 | 105.00 | 1.13% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月21日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1041.50 | 1046.75 | -5.25 | -0.50% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4月21日 | 美分/磅 | ...