表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 老日期货 TIORHI EILLIBER | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | �日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月16日 | 元/吨 | 3039 | 3069 | -30.00 | -0.98% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月16日 | 元/吨 | 2839 | 2910 | -71.00 | -2.44% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月16日 | 元/吨 | 3013 | 3066 | -53.00 | -1.73% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 01 | 4月16日 | 元/吨 | 2425 | 2452 | -27.00 | -1.10% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 4月16日 | 元/吨 | 2506 | 2584 | -78.00 | -3.02% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 09 | 4月16日 | 元/吨 ...

棉花：美棉小幅反弹 郑棉受关税战影响下跌 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | 截止 | 車位 | 昨日 | �日 12830 | 派兵士 | 涨跌幅 | 目同比 | 电图片 | 力史应直 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF09 | | | | | | | | | | 58.32% | | | | 收盘价 成交量 | 4/16 4/16 | 7C/UB ਜੇ | 12880 245575 | 215736 | -50 -29839 | -0.39% -12.15% | -850 78011 | -3515 -65668 | 12.74% | | | (主力) | 持仓营 | 4/16 | ਜੇ | 474965 | 493417 | 18452 | 3.88% | -109131 | 33605 | 82.96% | | | | 注册仓卓 | 4/16 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent market's macro sentiment has been restored, and there may be short - term expectations for bottom - support policies. However, the destocking of the five major steel products has slowed down. Currently, the steel market still maintains a weak pattern, with cautious market sentiment and little hope for significant improvement in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, the black - series commodity futures continued to be weak. The main contract of coking coal has been switched, and the main contract of coke is expected to be switched tomorrow. The main contract of rebar closed at 3,093 yuan/ton, down 1.06%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,205 yuan/ton, down 1.05%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 708 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the 2509 contracts of coking coal and coke continued to decline sharply [1] Market Analysis - In terms of macro data, the growth rates of China's major financial indicators rebounded in March. At the end of March, the stock of China's social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, reaching a high level in the past year. In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan. The US has removed smartphones, routers, and some computers and laptops from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese imports, alleviating market concerns about trade frictions [1] - In terms of the actual demand for finished steel products, the demand in April is in the recovery stage. Last week, the funds in place for construction sites continued to improve, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points to 58.5%, the highest since the Spring Festival. Although counter - cyclical adjustment tools such as national bonds cannot completely reverse the negative feedback of the real - estate downturn in the short term, in the first quarter, the net issuance of national bonds exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, and the issuance of local government bonds exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan. There is still a large amount of local government bonds and national bonds to be issued, and the market still has expectations for domestic policies [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to consider high - level consolidation in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

豆粕生猪：通关冲击减弱 豆粕期现齐跌 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金口期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI FUTURE | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | रेम | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月15日 | 元/吨 | 3069 | 3089 | -20.00 | -0.65% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月15日 | 元/吨 | 2910 | 2958 | -48.00 | -1.62% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月15日 | 元/吨 | 3066 | 3104 | -38.00 | -1.22% | | | CZCE荣好柏: 01 | 4月15日 | 元/吨 | 2452 | 2482 | -30.00 | -1.2 ...

棉花：美棉受外围影响下跌 郑棉弱势震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | 收盘仪 | 載止 4/15 | 单位 | 昨日 12810 | �日 12880 | 涨跌回 70 | 涨跌幅 0.55% | 目回比 -800 | 在自服 -3515 | 历史位置 13.46% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 7L/HB | | | | | | | 62.35% | | | CF09 | 成公室 | 4/15 | = | 147047 | 245575 | 98528 | 67.00% | 107850 | -29459 | | | | (主力) | 持仓量 | 4/15 | ਜੇ | 294227 | 474965 | 180738 | 61.43% | -127583 | 27263 | 80.77% | | | | 汪册仓审 | 4/15 | ...

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.71% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3104 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 rose by 0.87%, closing at 14470 yuan/ton. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose by 1.53%, closing at 1044 cents/bushel [2]. - In the soybean meal market, the US soybean futures price rebounded strongly. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is ahead of previous years. The domestic soybean customs clearance is slow, leading to a regional imbalance in soybean meal supply and a sharp increase in spot prices. In the long - term, the M09 contract is expected to be bullish, but there is a risk of a rapid decline in the basis after the oil mills resume operation [19]. - In the live pig market, the supply side has an increase in the number of pigs for sale, but the concentration is not high. The demand side is generally normal after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is in a state of supply - demand stalemate, and the subsequent supply pressure is large, but the supply rhythm is highly uncertain [21]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract fell 0.71% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes are 200 - 300 yuan/ton higher. The DCE live pig main 2509 contract rose 0.87%, closing at 14470 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs is 14.85 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 1.53% to 1044 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Main Producing Area Weather - In the United States, dry weather will help it recover from recent floods. In the next 10 - 15 days, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) may turn negative, bringing cold snaps to the northeast and east. The temperature in the Midwest and Southeast will drop by 8 - 12°F below normal. There will be night frosts in the Midwest in the next 5 days. Precipitation in major crop - producing areas will weaken in the next 10 days, but there may be more active rainfall in the South next weekend. The dry conditions in the next 10 days will help the Midwest, South, and Southeast recover from floods, but will not improve the soil moisture shortage in the Great Plains [4]. - The Rosario Exchange said that the weather may be unstable in the next few days with possible precipitation. Starting next week, the weather may enter a more favorable cycle, with drier conditions and less rainfall in the second half of April [5]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From April 5th to 11th, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 98.37 million tons, with an operating rate of 27.65%, 3.95 million tons lower than expected. It is expected that the operating rate will significantly recover from April 12th to 18th, with an estimated crushing volume of 127.02 million tons and an operating rate of 35.71% [6]. - On April 11th, the total soybean meal trading volume was 33.90 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 23.695 million tons, and the basis trading volume was 10.2 million tons. The soybean meal pick - up volume was 16.2 million tons, an increase of 5.42 million tons from the previous day [6]. - On April 14th, the import cost of US soybeans was 3885 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3711 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3780 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton [6]. - On April 14th, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises nationwide increased by 0.36% to 111,503 heads. The daily sales volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide increased by 3.79% [6][7]. - Private exporters reported the sale of 121,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, with 55,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/2025 season and 66,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [7]. - As of the week ending April 6th, Canada's rapeseed oil exports increased by 32.92% to 309,700 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1st, 2024, to April 6th, 2025, Canada's rapeseed oil exports were 7.1756 million tons, a 76.24% increase compared to the same period of the previous year [7]. - NOPA member units' estimated soybean crushing volume in March 2025 is 197.602 million bushels. If realized, it will be an 11.1% increase from February and a 0.6% increase from March 2024, setting a record for March [7]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative incremental social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the broad - money (M2) balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a 7% year - on - year increase, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [8]. - The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation of the University of Michigan in the United States in April was 6.7%, higher than the expected 5.1% and the previous value of 5.00% [8]. 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pigs in different regions, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [11][13][16][17]. 5. Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has shown signs of loosening. Argentina's heavy rain has raised concerns about soybean production. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is ahead of previous years. The US soybean futures price has rebounded strongly, and the Brazilian soybean premium has declined but has limited downside. The domestic M09 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and be bullish in the long term. The slow customs clearance of soybeans at domestic ports has led to a regional imbalance in soybean meal supply and a sharp increase in spot prices. After the oil mills resume operation, the basis may decline rapidly [19]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply side has an increase in the number of pigs for sale, but the concentration is not high. The demand side is normal after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate. The subsequent supply pressure is large, but the supply rhythm is highly uncertain [21].

棉花：美棉报告调高库存下跌 郑棉成交锐减平收 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | 截止 | 单位 | 昨日 | 今日 | 涨跌盘 | 涨跌幅 | 月同比 | 电图形 | 历史位置 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF09 (主力) | 收盘价 持仓量 | 4/14 4/14 | 元/吨 ਜੇ | 12810 337214 | 12810 294227 | 0 -42987 | 0.00% -12.75% | -870 -308321 | -3545 -117092 | 12.49% 52.69% | | | | 成交量 | 4/14 | ਜੇ | 293386 | 147047 | -146339 | -49.88% | 9322 | -98938 | 47.68% | | | | 注册仓单 | 4/14 | इस | 9507 | 9445 | -6 ...

数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、据咨询机构 Datagro 称，截至 4 月 4 日，巴西 2024/25 年度大豆销量已达到预期产 量的 52.2%。尽管这一比例超过了 2024 年 4 月的 41.6%，但仍低于五年均值 55.5%。 2、截至 4 月 8 日，阿根廷 2024/25 年度大豆收获进度为 2.6%，同比延迟 8%，比去年均 值低了 4%。大豆平均单产为每公顷 3.54 吨。基于当前作物状况，该交易所维持阿根廷大豆 产量 4860 万吨不变。 油脂：宏观情绪缓和 油脂窄幅震荡 | | | 油 | 脂 每 | 日 | 数 据 | 追 | 踪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月14日 | 元/吨 | 7698.00 | 7680.00 | 18.00 | 0.23% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月14日 | 元/吨 | 8748.00 | 8748.00 | 0.00 | 0 ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02-29 03-15 03-30 04-14 04-29 05-14 05-29 06-13 06-28 07-13 07-28 08-12 08-27 09-11 09-26 10-11 10-26 11-10 11-25 12-10 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04 ...