南华商品指数：所有版块均上涨，能化板块领涨 王怡琳 2025-06-19 08:40:23 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨1.47%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所上涨，其中涨 幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，涨幅为2.48%；涨幅最小的板块是南华黑色指数，涨幅为0.1%。 主题指数中，所有 主题指数均有所上涨，其中涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，涨幅为3.96%；涨幅最小的主题指数是黑色原材料指 数，涨幅为0.01%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是原油，上涨5.3%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品 种指数是线材，跌幅为-0.87%。 数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 aranakabase: "Zagangan", "Alaman", "Alax Teleplay", "Anakata", " "Taller", "Alland", "Allen", "Allen", "Allen", "All Program", "All Program", "All Program Program Program > 南华期货 | 股票代码 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月18日 投资咨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions in treasury bond futures. The market initially weakened due to the disappointment of the "small essay" and the announcement of innovation policy measures at the Lujiazui Forum, but the overall sentiment remained positive. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again. Currently, the easing trend remains unchanged, and the long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, presenting a new trial - long opportunity [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher but then declined with the opening of the Lujiazui Forum, and then showed a weak performance. In the afternoon, the prices fluctuated upward, with TS and TL closing higher at the end of the session, while TF and T closed slightly lower. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 970 million yuan in the open market [2] - On June 18, 2025, for different contracts: TS2509 rose 0.002 to 102.538, TF2509 fell 0.02 to 106.275, T2509 fell 0.015 to 109.135, and TL2509 rose 0.08 to 120.87. There were also corresponding changes in contract positions, basis, and trading volume [5] 2. Market News - At the opening ceremony of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai to promote the international operation of digital RMB and the development of financial market business [3] 3. Market Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The announcement of innovation policy measures by the central bank governor at the forum led to the disappointment of the "small essay" and a weakening of the bond market. However, the market's expectation of monetary policy easing continued. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again under the risk - aversion sentiment [4] - In terms of operation, the recent easing trend remains unchanged, but there is a lack of incremental factors to push interest rates to a new lower level. The long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, and the support - resistance conversion level can be regarded as a new trial - long opportunity [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The opening of the Lujiazui Forum today announced a series of measures, such as eight financial opening - up initiatives. Overall, the released information had no obvious unexpected highlights, so the market reaction was flat, maintaining a volatile state with no significant change in trading volume. The current economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, lacking a clear trend and having limited driving force for the index. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, there are still uncertainties overseas, posing significant resistance to the short - term upward movement of the index. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for new driving factors [4]. Market Review - Today, except for the CSI 300 Index, all other stock indexes closed down. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1.6146 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC increased in volume and price, while IH and IM increased in price with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced eight major financial opening - up initiatives, including setting up a trading report repository in the inter - bank market, a digital RMB international operation center, and a personal credit information agency; conducting a comprehensive reform pilot of offshore trade financial services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai; developing free - trade offshore bonds; optimizing and upgrading the functions of free - trade accounts; piloting innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai; and promoting RMB foreign exchange futures trading in conjunction with the CSRC [3]. - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified overseas investors will be allowed to participate in on - site ETF options trading for hedging purposes only [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Market Observation Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.23 | 10.5667 | 1.0037 | 23.8264 | 0.0486 | | IH | 0.01 | 4.843 | - 0.2249 | 8.1317 | - 0.1259 | | IC | 0.03 | 8.8945 | 0.2632 | 21.9162 | 0.0926 | | IM | 0.10 | 18.8199 | 0.8241 | 32.1988 | - 0.7768 | [5][6] Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.24 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.52 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 1191.067 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1.6146 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market in the second quarter is expected to continue, with no significant growth in demand - side production during the off - season. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices. Also, be cautious of the contradiction between the high open interest of the 2507 contract and the approaching delivery month for new energy varieties [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth and an increasing probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline. Negative factors are the large future production capacity expectations of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt in a continuous accumulation trend, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to cost reduction of some high - cost technology routes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Prediction**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventories and at risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options (either over - the - counter or on - exchange options), and buy out - of - the - money put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the money call options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the trading volume was 181,046 lots, down 560 lots or 0.31%; the open interest was 306,885 lots, down 450 lots or 0.15%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract was 59,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.13%; the trading volume was 17,850 lots, down 3,940 lots or 18.08%; the open interest was 67,483 lots, up 4,127 lots or 6.51% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - spread Changes**: The LC07 - 08 month - spread was 340 yuan/ton (previous value: 160 yuan/ton, last week: 440 yuan/ton); LC08 - 11 was 300 yuan/ton (previous value: 300 yuan/ton, last week: 360 yuan/ton); LC09 - 11 was 40 yuan/ton (previous value: 100 yuan/ton, last week: - 100 yuan/ton); LC11 - 12 was - 380 yuan/ton (previous value: - 300 yuan/ton, last week: - 240 yuan/ton) [15]. 3.3 Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores remained unchanged on the day. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li2O: 2 - 2.5% was 1,225 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium辉石 with Li2O: 6% (Brazil CIF) was 615 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 53,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.47%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 64,570 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.39% [22]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was 4,120 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 5.72%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices was - 934.79 yuan/ton, up 262.22 yuan or - 21.91% [26]. 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The prices of some downstream products remained stable, while others declined slightly. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary material was 105,220 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 622 (consumer - type) ternary material was 111,120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.08%; the price of 811 (power - type) ternary material was 143,120 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.13% [36][37]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased from 31,713 to 29,967, a decrease of 1,746. Some warehouses such as Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai and Cosco Shipping Nanchang saw significant decreases in warehouse receipts [39].

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.33% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 21.8% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for finished product inventory, shorting plastic futures (L2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 7350 - 7400 can lock in profits and cover production costs; selling call options (L2509C7400) with a 50% ratio at 70 - 120 can collect premiums and lock in selling prices if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and based on order - based procurement needs, buying plastic futures (L2509) with a 50% ratio at 7000 - 7100 can lock in procurement costs; selling put options (L2509P7100) with a 75% ratio at 50 - 100 can collect premiums and lock in buying prices if prices fall [2] 3. Core Contradiction - Due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the polyolefin market has strengthened, but the current supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the PE market remains unchanged. The high HD - LL spread and good HDPE supply - demand with low inventory may lead to more full - density plant conversions, potentially alleviating LLDPE supply pressure. The Middle - East situation may also disrupt PE imports and support prices through higher oil costs, but price upside may be limited due to supply surplus [3] 4. Bullish Factors - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread may lead to more full - density plant conversions; the Middle - East tension drives up oil prices, supporting polyolefins; the Iran - related conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4] 5. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year; the downstream off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5] 6. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main contract basis on 2025 - 06 - 18 was 58 yuan/ton lower than on 2025 - 06 - 17 and 98 yuan/ton lower than on 2025 - 06 - 11. There were also various price differences among different L contracts and spreads such as L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1, and L - P [6][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - There were price differences in different regions (North China, East China, South China) and spreads between regions such as East - North and East - South [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - There were price differences between HDPE (membrane, hollow, injection,拉丝, pipes) and LDPE membranes compared to LLDPE membranes [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price was 75 dollars/barrel, with a 5.98 dollars/barrel increase compared to before. There were also prices and profit data for other upstream products and different PE production methods [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the context of the recent significant strengthening of the polyolefin market due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation, without considering geopolitics, PP is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Multiple new production facilities are set to come online, leading to a substantial increase in supply, while downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid restocking during the traditional off - season, lacking a clear driver for growth. However, if the Middle - East situation deteriorates, it will have multiple impacts on the cost side of PP, including rising oil prices, potential disruptions to methanol and propane imports, and possible shutdowns of MTO and PDH plants, which may cause a marginal contraction in PP supply. Therefore, the impact of the Middle - East situation on the energy and chemical raw material supply chain, especially the price fluctuations and actual arrivals of methanol and propane, should be closely monitored [2]. 3. Key Points by Category Polypropylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7250 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.38% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.7% [1]. - For inventory management when there is a high inventory of finished products and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 7200 - 7250 yuan/ton range and sell PP2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio in the 50 - 100 yuan/ton range [1]. - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton range and sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% hedging ratio in the 50 - 100 yuan/ton range [1]. Market Situation Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Current plant maintenance is at a high level, leading to a marginal reduction in supply; the tense Middle - East situation has driven up oil prices, providing support for polyolefins; if the conflict persists, imports of PP raw materials propane and methanol may be restricted [5]. - **Negative Factors**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, Yulong Line 2 was put into production, and multiple facilities will be launched from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity; it is the off - season for downstream sales, and overall domestic demand has been weak recently due to poor profits [5]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The polypropylene main contract basis, prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts, as well as various monthly spreads and the L - P spread are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China, as well as regional spreads, are presented [6]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products are given [6]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Prices of Brent crude oil, US propane, Northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits from different production methods such as oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP production, are included [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Fundamentally, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness in styrene remains unchanged. However, the recent trend of the styrene futures price is significantly affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see until the macro situation stabilizes before entering short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Styrene Price Range Prediction and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Prediction**: The monthly price range of styrene is predicted to be between 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 85.8% [2]. - **Inventory Management Hedging Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short styrene futures (EB2508) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2508C7500) to collect premiums, with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 160 - 200 [2]. - **Procurement Management Hedging Strategies**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy styrene futures (EB2508) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,150 - 7,250 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2508P7200) to collect premiums, with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 120 - 140 [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern of styrene in the fundamentals remains unchanged, but the recent futures price is greatly affected by macro factors. It is advisable to wait and see and enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3]. 3.3利多解读 - **Inventory Reduction**: As of June 16, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 6.63 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons (- 17.13%) from the previous period. As of June 12, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 18.46 tons, a decrease of 0.68 tons (- 3.55%) from the previous period [4]. - **Oil Price and Valuation**: The intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, driving up the valuation of styrene [4]. - **Pure Benzene Price Increase**: Macro - level benefits and downstream factory restocking have supported the rise in pure benzene prices. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4利空解读 - **Terminal Demand Pressure**: The terminal demand for styrene is under pressure [6]. - **Pure Benzene Inventory Increase**: As of June 16, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 15.3 tons, a 2.68% increase from the previous period. European pure benzene supplies are expected to arrive in mid - to late June, leading to a high volume of future arrivals [8]. - **Supply Increase**: The previously shut - down pure benzene and styrene production facilities are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, resulting in an increase in supply [8]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US Department of Commerce announced on June 12 that starting from June 23, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on household appliances containing steel components [8]. 3.5 Styrene Basis and Industrial Chain Spread - **Basis**: The basis data of styrene in different regions and contracts on June 17, 2025 are provided, showing the differences and changes compared to the previous day [9]. - **Industrial Chain Spread**: The spreads of the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain in different types (spot, paper goods, etc.) and time periods (0617, 0614) are presented, along with their changes [9]. 3.6 Styrene Daily Report - Industrial Chain Prices - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of various raw materials such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, and pure benzene in different markets on different dates (June 17, June 16, June 10) are provided, along with their daily changes [10][11]. - **Styrene Prices**: The prices of styrene in different markets (FOB, CFR, domestic regions) and contracts (EB2506 - EB2509) on different dates are given, along with their daily changes [11]. - **Profit Data**: The profit data of styrene production (integrated and non - integrated), as well as the profit data of downstream products (such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, etc.) are presented [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term corrections are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed gold fluctuating and silver rising. The surrounding US dollar index rose, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell, and the US stock market declined, indicating an increase in the demand for US dollar safe - haven assets. The final closing prices were: COMEX gold 2508 contract at $3406.5 per ounce, down 0.32%; US silver 2507 contract at $37.18 per ounce, up 2.01%; SHFE gold 2508 main contract at 785.08 yuan per gram, down 1.46%; SHFE silver 2508 contract at 8864 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.01 tons to 945.94 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14675.36 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 20.2 tons to 1215.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 Key Events This Week - The US retail sales month - on - month rate announced on Tuesday was - 0.9%, lower than the expected - 0.7%, and the previous value was revised down. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Tuesday maintained the third on - hold stance this year. The focus this week is on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:03. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at 19:00 on Thursday [4]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - For London gold, the short - term technical trend has weakened. Support levels are around 3365, with strong support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3400, 3450, and strong resistance in the 3500 area. For London silver, the short - term trend has strengthened. Support levels are in the 36.9 - 37 area, then 36, 35.5, with strong support in the 34.8 - 35 area, and the upside space has opened up to the 40 area, and even 45 is possible [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of precious metal futures and spot prices, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity markets, such as the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [24].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锁定售价 | 钢厂对焦炭提降，担心焦炭价格下跌 | 多 | 做空焦炭2509合约 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1370-1390 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1390-1420 | | 锁定售价 | 焦煤现货库存高企，担心价格进一步下跌 | 多 | 做空焦煤2509合约 | JM2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 800-820 | | | | | | | | 50% | 820-850 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | 单位 | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 吨 | 37751 | 34766 ...

南华期货铅风险管理报告 2025年6月17日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 铅价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 16860 | 16300-17100 | 8.95% | 17.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 铅风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 17000 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪铅期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合 ...