Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak in the long - term due to factors such as cost reduction expectations, demand off - season, and negative feedback in the black market. However, in the short - term, there may be a limited rebound due to low valuations and reduced positions, and opportunities to short after the rebound should be awaited [3]. - The negative impact of high inventory and high supply on ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is gradually weakening, and they will continue the de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 17.44% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 44.2%, and for ferromanganese, it is 22.21% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 55.4% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 15% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 6200 - 6250 and ferromanganese is at 6400 - 6500. For procurement management with low inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 25% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 5100 - 5200 and ferromanganese is at 5300 - 5400 [2]. Core Contradictions - **Long - term Weakness**: Affected by factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of terminal steel demand, ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak. The cost is expected to decline due to potential electricity price cuts and the arrival of the southern rainy season, and the negative feedback from the demand off - season in the black market also adds to the downward pressure [3]. - **De - stocking Trend**: The high - inventory and high - supply situation is improving, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with less pressure. The de - stocking trend will continue, but the speed has slowed down [3]. - **Short - term Rebound**: With the decline in positions and low valuations, there may be a short - term rebound, but the rebound space is limited [3]. 利多 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel mill profitability maintains high molten iron production, which supports ferrosilicon demand. Low valuations, bottom - level profits, and a 2.71% week - on - week decrease in enterprise inventory to 6.81 tons also suggest potential for a rebound [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. The de - stocking trend, low valuations, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease in warehouse receipts to 47.48 tons, and a 0.73% week - on - week decrease in total inventory to 68.07 tons are positive factors [5]. 利空 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly production rate increased by 1.34% to 32.69%, and the weekly output increased by 2.93% to 9.79 tons. The weak coal market also implies a potential further decline in electricity cost [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The long - term weakness in the real estate market and doubts about steel demand growth lead to weak demand. The weekly production rate increased by 1.09% to 36.39%, the weekly output increased by 1.85% to 17.66 tons, and the enterprise inventory increased by 5.1% to 20.59 tons. The July quotation of manganese ore decreased [7]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared to June 20. The basis in Ningxia was 150, and the warehouse receipts decreased significantly by 12535 compared to June 20 [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions showed some fluctuations. The basis in Inner Mongolia was 234, and the warehouse receipts increased by 49 compared to June 20 [9][10]. Seasonal Data - Multiple seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided, including market price seasonality, futures basis seasonality, and futures spread seasonality, which can help analyze historical price trends and fluctuations [11][25][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no significant increase in production during the off - season on the demand side. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction in the market is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a need to be vigilant against the possible spiral decline of ore and lithium salt prices [3]. - There are some positive factors, such as positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth in industries like robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI, and a higher probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline [4]. - There are also negative factors, including high future production expectations for lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to industrial technology upgrades [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The price range prediction for the lithium carbonate main contract is an oscillation between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 17.2% [2]. - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 59,120 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (0.37%) from the previous day; the trading volume is 259,487 lots, down 70,833 lots (- 21.44%); the open interest is 356,954 lots, up 2,607 lots (0.74%) [9]. - For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 58,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the trading volume is 28,178 lots, up 12,033 lots (74.53%), and the open interest is 76,082 lots, up 5,069 lots (7.14%) [9]. - Regarding the lithium carbonate monthly spreads: LC07 - 08 is 360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 21.74%); LC08 - 11 is 560 yuan/ton (unchanged); LC09 - 11 is 320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (220%); LC11 - 12 is - 320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (20%) [15]. Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices - For lithium ore, the average daily prices of various types have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 1.65%); the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 2,175 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 1.81%) [19]. - For lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the average daily prices also show declines. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,350 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (- 0.77%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 59,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (- 0.75%) [22]. Downstream Product Prices - For downstream products, the prices of some products have changed. The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 30,175 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan (- 0.58%); the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 26,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 0.38%) [34]. Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy lithium carbonate forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,779, a decrease of 1,014 from the previous day. Some warehouses have changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi, which decreased by 300 lots, and Shanghai Guochu, which decreased by 90 lots [37].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 23, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand contradiction of coking coal has eased, and with the support of geopolitical conflicts on energy products, the futures market may continue to rise in the short term. However, downstream enterprises generally lack confidence in future demand, and this rebound has not boosted the sentiment in the spot market. The inventory of upstream coking coal mines is continuously accumulating, and the pressure on spot sales remains high. The probability of an immediate price increase after the fourth round of price cuts is low. Unilateral operations are advised to wait and see, and the industry can focus on hedging opportunities at low basis levels [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)**: The forecast price range for coking coal is 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 38.07% and a historical percentile of 75.79%. The forecast price range for coke is 1320 - 1450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.36% and a historical percentile of 53.39% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For those looking to lock in selling prices due to concerns about price drops when steel mills propose price cuts for coke or when coking coal spot inventory is high, it is recommended to short the J2509 coke contract or the JM2509 coking coal contract. The suggested hedging ratios and entry intervals are provided [2]. 3.2 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | June 23, 2025 | June 20, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 18,221 | 18,221 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 75,537 | 77,312 | - 1,775 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 3,000 | 3,000 | 0 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 90 | 90 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Sheets | 12,535 | 13,832 | - 1,297 | | Silicomanganese | Sheets | 94,951 | 95,545 | - 594 | [3] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Positive Factors**: High molten iron production, stable steel mill profitability, and the absence of obvious off - season characteristics in the steel market [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Unstable operations of mines and coal washing plants during the safety production month, rising pithead prices during the peak demand season for thermal coal, intensified energy price fluctuations due to the tense situation in the Middle East, low probability of an immediate price increase after the fourth round of price cuts, stable coal production and supply throughout the year, and a decline in coal and coking demand following the inflection point of molten iron production [6][7] 3.4 Price Data - **Coal and Coking Futures Prices**: Data on coking coal and coke futures prices, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contract months, and relevant ratios such as coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc., are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [7]. - **Coal and Coking Spot Prices**: Data on various coal and coke spot prices, including those of domestic and imported coal, different grades of coke, and relevant profit data such as coking profit, import profit, and export profit, are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [8][9]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 23, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Risk Management Report on Silicon Industry Chain Enterprises - Analyst: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand side shows that the overall output of silicone enterprises remains stable, while aluminum alloy enterprises perform averagely. The high - inventory pattern remains unchanged, limiting the price upside [3]. - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The PV rush - installation tide has overdrafted some future demand. On the supply side, raw material prices remain low, polysilicon production has increased, and downstream production schedules have slightly declined, with high inventory pressure still existing. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the polysilicon industry situation [3]. Key Points by Category 1. Futures Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 7600 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 28.0%, daily increase of 0.02%, current volatility at the 84.6% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 33000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 25.76%, daily increase of 0.35%, current volatility at the 61.20% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, short futures (SI2509/PS2509) with a 30% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs, sell call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange options) with a 70% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon or polysilicon according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth in the long run; cost reduction space is limited in the short term, providing cost support; downstream demand enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season may boost production enthusiasm [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: As the wet season approaches, production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be released; rumors of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality, weakening demand; high inventory restricts price increases [7]. Polysilicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry, which could improve the industry situation if an agreement is reached [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Inventory is still in an accumulation trend, and demand has not improved; the combination of low raw material prices and the approaching wet season may lead to increased production by polysilicon enterprises [8]. 4. Market Data Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures主力合约 is 7420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan (0.41%); the trading volume is 292932 lots, a decrease of 285562 lots (- 49.36%); the open interest is 303119 lots, a decrease of 2437 lots (- 0.80%) [10]. - **Spot**: The price of East China 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of East China 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the basis of East China 553 is 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 3.95%); the basis of East China 421 is 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 2.29%) [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots (- 5.29%); the inventory at the Kunming delivery warehouse is 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons (- 37.67%) [19]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures主力合约 is 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1085 yuan (- 3.42%); the trading volume is 88450 lots, an increase of 334 lots (0.38%); the open interest is 78183 lots, an increase of 52026 lots (198.90%) [22]. - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon (dense material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no daily change; the price of N - type polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no daily change [37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2600 lots, with no daily change [40].

南华贵金属日报: 中东局势混乱 美联储依然偏鹰 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月23日 【盘面回顾】 本周贵金属市场价格表现整体偏弱，其中黄金走势弱于白银，尽管动荡的中东地缘政局略微提升避险情 绪，但走高的油价以及美联储FOMC会议继续释放偏鹰降息信号，推升美指走强，并抑制贵金属价格。周四 凌晨召开的美联储6月FOMC会议，连续第四次维持为4.25%-4.5%基准利率不变，点阵图利率中值仍预计美 联储年内将降息2次，但上调26年和27年利率中值，且7/19官员认为25年维持利率不变；鲍威尔讲话则仍然 维持了继续等待观望的态度，主要基于对通胀前景的不确定性，而经济上尚无无迫切降息需求。周末期间中 东地缘政局加速升级，美国对伊朗三大核设施发动攻击；伊朗议会则批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最高安全机 构需要最终决定这一措施。其他方面，周二晚间公布的美零售销售月率-0.9%，低于预期-0.7%，且前值下 修。周二召开的日央行利率决议维持年内第三次按兵不动。 贵金属期现价格表 【资金与库存】 长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周增9.75吨至9 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals is expected to be bullish. In the short term, with the need to wait for interest rate cuts, no escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade tariff negotiations not entering a sensitive period, the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Short-term corrections are regarded as medium- to long-term buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, down 0.61%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.36 per ounce, down 1.5%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 0.49%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 1.91% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 10.3%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 6.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 3.4% [3]. - In the long term, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.37 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14763 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 14 tons to 1243 tons daily, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Bank of England's interest rate meeting on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% unchanged, but the divergence among voting members increased [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 4.18 yuan or 0.53%; the SGX gold TD closed at 777.44 yuan per gram, down 4.2 yuan or 0.54%; the CME gold main contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, up $1 or 0.03%. The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 226 yuan or 2.5%; the SGX silver TD closed at 8777 yuan per kilogram, down 212 yuan or 2.36%; the CME silver main contract closed at $36.76 per ounce, down $0.42 or 1.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 18168 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1175.2202 tons, down 0.009 tons; the SHFE gold position was 161031 lots, down 1390 lots or 0.86%; the SPDR gold position was 947.37 tons, up 1.43 tons or 0.15%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1242.994 tons, up 13.962 tons or 1.14%; the CME silver inventory was 15419.0964 tons, down 26.3768 tons or 0.17%; the SGX silver inventory was 1378.875 tons, up 59.55 tons or 4.51%; the SHFE silver position was 387527 lots, down 58454 lots or 13.11%; the SLV silver position was 14763.000528 tons, up 87.6368 tons or 0.6% [13]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 98.7857, down 0.066 or 0.07%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.19, down 0.002 or 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42171.66 points, down 44.14 points or 0.1%; WTI crude oil spot was $75.6 per barrel, up $0.46 or 0.61%; LmeS copper 03 was $9619.5 per ton, down $31 or 0.32%; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 0.01% or 0.23%; the 10-year US real interest rate was 2.07%, down 0.01% or 0.48%; the 10 - 2-year US Treasury yield spread was 0.44%, down 0.01% or 2.22% [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, the pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term for styrene remains unchanged, but recent market prices are greatly affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is more prudent to enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7000 - 7800 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile of 85.8% over 3 years [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short styrene futures (EB2508) at 25% hedging ratio in the 7600 - 7700 yuan range; sell call options (EB2508C750) at 50% hedging ratio in the 140 - 160 yuan range [2] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, buy styrene futures (EB2508) at 50% hedging ratio in the 7300 - 7400 yuan range; sell put options (EB2508P7300) at 75% hedging ratio in the 110 - 150 yuan range [2] Core Contradiction - The near - term and long - term strength pattern of styrene in the fundamentals remains unchanged, but the recent market price is highly influenced by macro factors. It is advisable to wait and enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] Bullish Factors - As of June 16, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 6.63 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons (-17.13%) from the previous period; as of June 12, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 18.46 tons, a decrease of 0.68 tons (-3.55%) from the previous period. The expected styrene arrivals in the next period are still low [4] - The intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, driving up the price of styrene [4] - As the June paper - cargo delivery approaches, the near - end basis of styrene has strengthened again [7] - Macro - level benefits and downstream factory restocking have supported the rise in pure benzene prices. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6400 yuan/ton [7] Bearish Factors - As of June 16, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 15.3 tons, a 2.68% increase from the previous period. European pure benzene supplies are expected to arrive in mid - to late June, with high subsequent arrivals [8] - The previously shut - down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, with increasing supply [8] - The US Department of Commerce announced on June 12 that starting from June 23, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on household appliances containing steel components, putting pressure on the terminal demand for styrene [9] Price and Basis Changes - The daily changes in styrene basis are presented in the table, showing the differences between different regions and contract months [9] - The daily changes in the price spread of the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain are presented in the table, including the spreads between different time points and contracts [9] Industry Chain Prices - The prices of various products in the styrene industry chain, such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, and their changes from June 12 - 19, 2025 are presented in the table [9][10]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年6月19日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间7200-7700 | 28.0% | 0.09% | 84.4% | 0.4% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 强压力位35000 | 24.45% | -0.27% | 57.01% | -0.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，有存 | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来 锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SI2509/P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless steel may continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The audit event of Indonesia's Tsingshan Industrial Park may affect the production of nickel intermediates and stainless steel. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a certain deviation between the short - term nickel ore and the market trend. The nickel - iron price is still falling, and the demand in the stainless steel market is weak during the off - season. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and macro news [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has depreciation risks, short Shanghai nickel futures (60% ratio) and sell call options (50% ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price drops [3] - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy long - term Shanghai nickel contracts and sell put options according to the production plan, and also buy out - of - the - money call options [3] 2. Market Situation - **Nickel Market**: Intraday, Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The follow - up of the Indonesia audit event may affect production. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a deviation between short - term nickel ore and the market trend. Nickel - iron prices are falling, with large profit pressure and weak procurement [4] - **Stainless Steel Market**: In the off - season, demand is weak. Spot sales are mainly through price concessions, and overall transactions are average [4] - **New Energy Chain**: The demand for nickel salts recovers slowly, maintaining a production - to - order situation [4] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,890 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,095 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% [6] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,575 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.80% [7] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,383 tons (up 8 tons), LME nickel inventory is 203,598 tons (down 522 tons), stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons (up 1.8 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons (up 3,148 tons) [8] 4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Some stainless steel mills announced production cuts, the cost of nickel ore prices is supported, and the government's review of some enterprises in Indonesia's Morowali Park may affect production [5] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, inventory clearance is slow, the contradiction in the nickel - iron industry chain deepens, and the demand for precursors in the new energy chain is weak [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: June 19, 2025 [3] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report, Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1][2] - Analysts: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [3] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock indices closed down collectively today. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.82%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 595.57 billion yuan. The stock index futures all declined with increased volume [4]. - Futures Market Details: The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had intraday declines of -0.80%, -0.63%, -1.03%, and -1.16% respectively. The trading volumes were 117,508 lots, 56,937 lots, 105,878 lots, and 228,414 lots respectively, with a month-on-month increase. The open interests were 242,993 lots, 83,607 lots, 227,844 lots, and 336,516 lots respectively, also with a month-on-month increase [7]. - Spot Market Details: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 0.15. The trading volume of the two markets was 12,506.24 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 595.57 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Important Information - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The Fed announced its June interest rate decision early today, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations [5]. Group 4: Core View - Market Pressure: The Fed's latest interest rate decision to hold steady, along with Powell's hawkish remarks, led to a rise in the US dollar index, increasing external pressure. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the index was under pressure and oscillated downward today [6]. - Market Outlook: Currently, the index lacks a driving force and faces significant resistance to upward movement. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. After the market digests the increased external pressure, it is expected to return to range-bound trading and wait for a new driving force [6]. Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold positions and wait and see [7]