Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coils can be traded in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, considering the increasing expectations of loose monetary policies in China and the US, and the expected improvement in demand after the resumption of work in enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region following the end of the military parade [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of September 5, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3340 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [7] - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 314.24 million tons, down 10.5 million tons week - on - week but up 3.76 million tons year - on - year [7] - Apparent demand declined to 305.36 million tons, down 15.36 million tons week - on - week and 4.01 million tons year - on - year [7] - Total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly to 374.34 million tons, up 8.88 million tons week - on - week but down 68.64 million tons year - on - year [7] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, down 2.60 percentage points week - on - week but up 56.71 percentage points year - on - year [7] 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal; the market is focusing on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday, and weak data may trigger discussions on a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. Domestically, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 [9] - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly production of hot - rolled coils decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.27%; terminal demand was affected, inventory increased, and apparent demand declined [9] - Cost aspect: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly, and the expected improvement in demand supported the firmness of iron ore prices. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased to 75.8%, and the decline in clean coal inventory supported the rebound of coking coal prices [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2601 contract was consolidating in a range, with technical support around 3300 yuan/ton, and it was testing the pressure of the MA10/MA20 moving averages in the short term; the downward momentum of the DIFF and DEA in the MACD indicator weakened, and the green bars shrank [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - The HC2601 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the price difference on September 5 was 26 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 5, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,059 tons, down 601 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 futures contracts of hot - rolled coils was 113,503 lots, an increase of 10,966 lots from the previous week [22] 2.3 Spot Price - On September 5, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3420 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on September 5 was 60 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton week - on - week [26] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane iron ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [33] 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From August 25 - 31, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China increased. The total arrival volume of 47 ports was 26.45 million tons, up 1.827 million tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume of 45 ports was 25.26 million tons, up 1.327 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume of the six northern ports was 13.008 million tons, up 1.478 million tons week - on - week [38] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China was 144.2572 million tons, up 0.377 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3033 million tons, down 0.0381 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 60.1702 million tons, down 1.1329 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.9296 million tons, up 0.662 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 91.6996 million tons, down 0.5806 million tons [42] 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.61%, down 0.09 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 51.21, down 0.07; the coke inventory was 40.71, up 0.9; the total inventory of coking coal was 780.95, down 38.92; the available days of coking coal were 11.5 days, down 0.55 days [46] 4. Industry Conditions 4.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative national crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [49] - In July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 0.158 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 0.452 million tons, a decrease of 0.018 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%; from January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [49] - On September 5, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.4%, down 2.80 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.77 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, down 4.23 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.19 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2884 million tons, down 0.1129 million tons week - on - week but up 0.0623 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 31.424 million tons, down 1.05 million tons from the previous week but up 0.376 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 7.998 million tons, up 0.003 million tons from the previous week but down 1.447 million tons year - on - year. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 29.436 million tons, up 0.858 million tons week - on - week but down 5.417 million tons year - on - year. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 37.434 million tons, up 0.888 million tons week - on - week but down 6.864 million tons year - on - year [57] 4.2 Demand Side - In July 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.593 million and 2.591 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.7% and 13.3%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.0% [60] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the production of household refrigerators was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the production of household washing machines was 68.1282 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased this week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly as expected, and the reverse flow to the inland has significantly boosted the import demand. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels will change little, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly after hedging [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market continued to decline this week with a reduced amplitude. The inland methanol market also continued to decline. The price of Ordos in the main production area fluctuated between 2042 - 2057 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying fluctuated at 2295 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall production has increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. The import demand may be stable next week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a +2.29% increase [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 5, the MA 1 - 5 spread was 5 [14] - Position analysis: As of September 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,036, an increase of 290 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of September 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2067.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 207.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Overseas price: As of September 4, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 259 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton from last week [39] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of September 3, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of September 4, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.06 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - Industry: As of September 4, China's methanol production was 1,962,815 tons, an increase of 43,690 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. As of September 3, the total port inventory was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 341,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of September 4, the import profit was 11.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.42 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][53] - Downstream: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 87.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. As of September 5, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week [56][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong support at the raw material end, and rubber prices continued to rise. However, the trading sentiment in the market was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand for replenishment. In the short term, the inventory at Qingdao Port is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the overall capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises will increase, but the increase may be limited [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material end of the natural rubber market had strong support, and rubber prices continued to rise. The import rubber market offers increased, but factory purchases were limited. The futures market was volatile, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted with the market. The trading sentiment was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand for replenishment [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the raw material supply pressure remains high. In Hainan, the weather is good, and tapping operations are underway, but local processing plants have low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials due to limited profit margins. The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. The demand from downstream tire enterprises is relatively moderate. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan this week, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase, but some enterprises still have production control plans this month [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.93% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 3.22% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 40, and the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of 20 - rubber was - 45 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 165,730 tons, a decrease of 12,910 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 46,368 tons, an increase of 706 tons from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 4, the price of state - owned full - latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 4, the basis of 20 - rubber was 454 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 980 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 4, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.8 (+0.25) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 52.05 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 5, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 21.4 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 4, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [47]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [51]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Production**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% from July and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - No relevant content provided

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内山东市场顺丁橡胶价格窄幅波动，现货价格区间在11600-12000元/吨。中石 化化销及中油各销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶价格稳定。截止2025年9月4日，中国高顺顺丁橡胶主流出 厂价格在12100-12200元/吨。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升，国内顺丁橡胶总体供应 充足，但近期山东及华东部分民营预计检修，叠加原料端行情总体偏强，部分贸易商及下游采购 有所跟进，本周生产企业库存小幅下降，贸易企业库存提升。下周浩普新材料及台橡宇部顺丁装 置预计停车检修20天附近，国内供应略有减少，生产企业库存及样本贸易库存或表现下降。需求 方面，本周东营地区部分企业存3-4天检修计划，拖拽整体产能利用率下行，下周随着检修企业排 产逐步恢复，整体产能利用率将有所提升，但部分企业出货表现一般，月内仍有控产计划，开工 提升幅度或将受到一定限制。 策略建 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.13% and polysilicon rose 14.49%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising, while the polysilicon futures market broke through the platform [4]. - For industrial silicon, next week's supply is expected to increase, mainly due to the significant increase in production in Southwest China during the wet season. The demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. It is recommended to trade the main contract in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500 [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply is increasing and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust next week. It is recommended to trade the main contract in the range of 52000 - 58000, with a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 5.13% and polysilicon rose 14.49% this week. The industrial silicon futures market was volatile, and the polysilicon futures market broke through the platform on Friday [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is expected to increase, especially in Southwest China. The demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries remains flat. The industry inventory is high, and inventory digestion faces pressure [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is increasing, but the increase is expected to be limited. Demand is weakening due to weak terminal demand. The market is expected to continue to adjust next week [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Trade the industrial silicon main contract in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. Trade the polysilicon main contract in the range of 52000 - 58000, with a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices rose this week [5]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Polysilicon spot prices also rose, and the basis strengthened [10][14]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of September 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 8.11 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.85% [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw materials and electricity prices remained flat. During the wet season, the overall cost remained low [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50072, a decrease of 637 compared with the previous week [28]. - **Downstream Industries**: - **Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rate remained flat. Due to cost and price declines, profits decreased. It is expected that production will remain stable, and the demand for industrial silicon will remain flat [30][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices rose, and inventory continued to increase. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [43]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer prices were flat, and battery cell prices remained the same. The demand for polysilicon is expected to increase slightly [50]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: Cost and profit increased, and inventory decreased. As of September 5, polysilicon profit was 12070 yuan/ton, the average cost was 39430 yuan/ton, and inventory was 26.8 million tons [57][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply rhythm is expected to gradually recover, and there is pressure on supply due to the peak of the previous increase cycle in the inventory of breeding sows in September and the increase in the number of newborn piglets in the past six months. The planned monthly slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery in demand due to centralized procurement by schools at the beginning of the semester, procurement for the Ghost Festival, and the decrease in temperature in the north, leading to a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. - At the beginning of the month, the slowdown in slaughter and the slight recovery in demand led to an increase in spot prices. However, due to market expectations of supply in September, futures prices were weak, and the basis strengthened. - As the slaughter rhythm recovers and supply increases, and after the centralized procurement by schools before the Ghost Festival and at the beginning of the semester ends, demand growth is limited. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, pig prices may face pressure and mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct short - term bearish trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2511 dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure exists as the slaughter rhythm will recover and the supply of breeding sows and newborn piglets suggests an increase. Demand has a slight recovery but is limited after the special procurement periods end. Pig prices may be under pressure and operate in a weak and volatile manner. Short - term bearish trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 of pig futures dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 5th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1222 lots to 14,854 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [12][16]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 255 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September contract was 820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 575 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Price**: The average national pig market price was 13.90 yuan/kg this week, up 0.16 yuan/kg from last week and 0.72% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, down 0.55 yuan/kg from last week and 9.88% from the same period last month [34]. - **Other Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.81 yuan/kg in the week of August 28th, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The pig - grain ratio was 5.89 as of August 20th, down 0.05 from the previous week [38][43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.025%, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [48]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, an increase of 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. In July, the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 473,700, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 54.30%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs this week was 123.41 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [59]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 5th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 126.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 52.65 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 22.17 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20.42 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.23 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 0.02 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - crossbred chickens was 1.00 yuan/head [64]. - **Import Situation**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [65][69]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of September 5th, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 4th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3073.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2362.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 29th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 919.08, an increase of 1.24% from last week. This week, the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [75][83][87]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, the year - on - year increase in China's CPI was 0.0% [91]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 36th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [99]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data or analysis is provided [100].

瑞达期货研究院 目录 「2025.09.05」 焦煤市场周报 宏观扰动远月涨停，盘面宽幅震荡运行 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量170.1万吨，环比减18.6万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产25.2万吨，环比减0.7万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1906.51万吨，环比增加8.14万吨，同比增加6.18%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1350，折盘面1130 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利64元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率63.64%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年增加59.74个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：受阅兵钢厂控产影响，本期铁水大幅下降。日均铁水产量228.84万吨，环比上周减少11.29万吨，同比 去年增加6.23万吨。 「 周度要点小结2 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Increase at Peak Season, Lithium Price May Be Supported" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with industrial inventory depletion and positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and control risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the carbonate lithium main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change rate of - 3.78% and an amplitude of 8.16%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 74,260 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro Situation**: China's economic prosperity level continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the raw material side, there is still uncertainty in domestic mining area supply, and overseas miners still have the sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Due to the continuous weakening of the carbonate lithium spot, the lithium ore quotation has been adjusted. In terms of supply, new production lines of domestic smelters have been put into operation, and the production enthusiasm has increased, so the domestic supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, it is currently the traditional peak consumption season, and downstream material factories have purchasing needs. The recent decline in lithium prices may strengthen the trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the inventory of upstream smelters has continued to decline, and the inventory of downstream has increased, with the overall inventory showing a slight decline [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 74,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,920 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 460 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 74,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,900 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 490 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Spodumene**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 922 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of US dollars against the RMB was 7.1402, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02% [20]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The average price of amblygonite was 7,125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 525 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77%, and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. As of August 2025, the monthly output of carbonate lithium was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, an increase of 2.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31]. 3.5 Downstream Market - **Demand Side**: - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price was 56,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 yuan/ton. As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 44.16% [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price was 34,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials continued to weaken [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price was 32,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price was 230,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton [49]. - **Application Side**: - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of July 2025, the penetration rate was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly output was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%; the sales volume was 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [51][56]. 3.6 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, with a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of the option at - the - money contract and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on an increase in volatility [59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the ChiNext Index recording an increase. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, and large-cap blue-chip stocks were relatively resilient. The market trading activity remained high, with daily trading volume at the level of two trillion. Overseas, the US August ADP data fell short of expectations, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the external environment for A-shares showed signs of loosening. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months, and the net profit growth rates of individual stocks in different indices showed different trends. The northbound funds were actively traded, and the margin trading balance continued to rise. Overall, the market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period, and there is a need for market correction. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7][100] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Futures Contracts**: IF2509 had a weekly decline of -1.10%, IH2509 fell -1.32%, IC2509 dropped -1.40%, and IM2509 decreased -1.91%. On Friday, they had gains of 2.82%, 1.64%, 4.41%, and 3.61% respectively [10] - **Spot Indices**: The CSI 300 declined -0.81%, the SSE 50 fell -1.15%, the CSI 500 dropped -1.85%, and the CSI 1000 decreased -2.59%. On Friday, they had gains of 2.18%, 1.09%, 3.22%, and 2.90% respectively [10] 2. News Overview - China's official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month-on-month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, which was bearish [13] - Nearly 60% of A-share listed companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability in the first half of 2025, which was bullish [14] - The US August ADP employment increase was far lower than expected, and the market bet that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September was close to 100%, which was bullish [15] 3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index declined -1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell -0.83%, the STAR 50 dropped -5.42%, the SME 100 decreased -2.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.35%. On Friday, they had gains of 1.24%, 3.89%, 3.39%, 3.33%, and 6.55% respectively [18] - **Overseas Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.32%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.36%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.70%. On Thursday, they had gains of 0.83%, 0.42%, 1.43%, and 1.03% respectively [19] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors declined. National defense and military, and computer sectors weakened significantly, while power equipment and comprehensive sectors led the gains [23] - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flows**: Industry main funds generally showed net outflows, with significant net outflows in computer and electronics sectors [27] - **SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates ran smoothly, and the capital price was low [31] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 5.792 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share lifting market value was 21.82 billion yuan, and the northbound funds had a total trading volume of 1.428832 trillion [34] - **Futures Basis and Spread**: IF and IH main contract bases fluctuated, while IC and IM main contract bases converged [42][51] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - A-share major indices generally declined this week, and the four stock index futures also declined collectively. The market trading activity remained high. Overseas, the Fed rate cut expectation increased, and domestically, the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range. The market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period, and there is a need for market correction. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a weekly increase of +0.92% and an amplitude of 1.56%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 80,140 yuan/ton [6]. - Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market - expected 49 and remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month; and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [6]. - Fundamentally, the TC fee for copper ore is running in a low range, and the raw material price is firm, providing cost support for copper prices. In terms of supply, domestic smelter production and operating rates have declined due to maintenance, and the supply shortage of raw materials such as copper concentrate and scrap copper has also limited smelter capacity to some extent, so domestic refined copper production may decrease. In terms of demand, in the short term, the relatively strong copper price due to the expected Fed rate cut has suppressed the downstream pick - up sentiment, and the trading sentiment in the spot market has cooled. In the long term, the traditional consumption peak season is still expected to boost demand, and with the increase in new orders and a slight correction in copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment may gradually recover. In terms of inventory, social inventory has accumulated due to a slight slowdown in demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and temporarily weak demand, with a positive industrial outlook [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a closing price of 80,140 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of +0.92%, and an amplitude of 1.56% [6]. - **International and Domestic Economic Indicators**: Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August was 48.7, below expectations. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all increased month - on - month [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support from raw materials, supply may decrease due to smelter issues, short - term demand is weak but long - term demand is expected to improve, and inventory has accumulated [6]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillating trading [7] 3.2 Spot - Futures Market Situation - **Contract Indicators**: As of September 5, 2025, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai copper was - 90 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the contract price was 80,140 yuan/ton, up 730 yuan/ton from last week; the position was 187,152 lots, up 13,326 lots from last week; the inter - monthly spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][15]. - **Spot Price**: The average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Premium and Position**: The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 850 lots, an increase of 11,386 lots from last week [24]. - **Option Indicators**: The short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of Shanghai copper fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility; the put - call ratio of option positions was 0.72, a decrease of 0.0766 from last week [29]. 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 70,440 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the southern copper scrap processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,529.89 yuan/ton, up 8.06 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: In June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%; the global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons month - on - month [41]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. In June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, an increase of 1.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.5%, an increase of 3.7% from May [46]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss was 655.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 650.4 yuan/ton from last week [51][52]. - **Inventory**: The LME total inventory decreased by 525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 24,901 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,485 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from last week [55]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%; the import volume was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, an increase of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [59]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of July 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 3.4% and 12.5% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [65]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [72]. 3.4 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of June 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of June 2025 was a surplus of 46,500 tons [77]