1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost has decreased as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, although the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade, while the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains at a high level and the return volume to China is expected to increase [2] - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Despite the end of the traditional peak demand season, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing, with the impact of previous export squeezing starting to show. The market's purchasing willingness is low, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance is average, resulting in a narrow increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory [2] - Technically, the position is stable while the price is rising, and the bearish sentiment has declined. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,555 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 120 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,792 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 80 lots; the position of the main contract is 71,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,683 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,498 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 415 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 22,900 metal tons, with an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, with a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 119,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change [2] - The monthly production of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, with an increase of 37,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, with a decrease of 12,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, with an increase of 36.6239 million square meters [2] - The monthly production of excavators is 30,900 units, with a decrease of 700 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, with a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, with an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Fed's employment - related indicator, the JOLTS job openings in October, unexpectedly rose to a five - month high, but hiring decreased and layoffs reached a two - year high [2] - The Bank of Japan governor said that if the economic outlook is achieved, interest rates will be raised, and in special cases, the bond - buying scale will be increased. Japan is gradually approaching the sustainable inflation target, hinting that future interest rate hikes will be "more than once" [2] - Trump said that interest rate cuts are the touchstone for the new Fed chairman, and he will consider two candidates. He may reduce the prices of some commodities by adjusting tariffs. The media reported that Trump will conduct the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, and Hassett is still the best candidate. Hassett said that the Fed has "sufficient room" for interest rate cuts, which means a cut of more than 25 basis points [2] 3.7重点关注 - There is no important news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has narrowed compared to the previous period Overseas ship arrivals remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, and tire companies are making appropriate low - price purchases according to demand, with the overall purchasing sentiment slightly improving The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire company is slow, and the short - term production control behavior of enterprises still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,300 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,215 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 230 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is 5 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,270 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread is - 30 yuan, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,945 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 126,049 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,636 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 59,310 lots, with a daily increase of 3,166 lots The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26,330 lots, with a daily increase of 1,048 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10,799 lots, with a daily decrease of 504 lots The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 53,430 tons, with a daily increase of 7,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 60,279 tons, with a daily increase of 3,527 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with no daily change The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with no daily change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with no daily change The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with no daily change The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 635 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,810 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 34 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 224 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.14 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.37 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 1.4 Thai baht The market reference price of rubber latex of Thai raw rubber is 55 Thai baht/kg, with no daily change; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.85 Thai baht The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 70.2 US dollars The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5%, with a weekly increase of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92%, with a weekly increase of 1.73 percentage points The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.51 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 44.95 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.28 days The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.07%, with a daily increase of 0.77 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.86%, with a daily increase of 0.42 percentage points The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.24%, with a daily decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.24%, with a daily decrease of 0.49 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38% As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1070.0, down 1.29%. The short - term market sentiment has weakened. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a weak short - term trend [2]. - On December 10, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1527.0, up 0.36%. Coking enterprises will implement production restrictions of no less than 30% to ease supply pressure. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a weak short - term trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1070.00 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1527.00 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 806157.00 lots, down 3525.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 47030.00 lots, down 1187.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 2820.00 lots, up 86624.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts: 0.00 lots, up 165.00 lots [2]. - JM5 - 1 contract spread: 107.00 yuan/ton, up 8.50 yuan; J5 - 1 contract spread: 174.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 300.00 sheets, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts: 2070.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal: 960.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1830.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR): 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal: 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal: 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 303.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 540.00 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 27.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons; fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.38%, up 0.02%; raw coal output: 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30 million tons; daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 190.40 million tons, down 0.90 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 470.60 million tons, up 5.60 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports: 245.80 million tons, down 1.40 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1009.20 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; all - sample coke inventory of independent coking enterprises: 76.44 million tons, up 4.68 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 798.27 million tons, down 3.03 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide: 625.25 million tons, down 0.27 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.88 days, down 0.13 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.29 days, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 73.84%, up 0.89% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 30.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan; coke output: 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 80.14%, down 0.93%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 87.06%, down 0.90% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2025, the number of German corporate bankruptcies increased by 8.3% year - on - year to 23,900, the highest since 2014. The number of bankruptcies in manufacturing and trade increased by over 10%, and the service industry had the most bankruptcies, reaching 14,000, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [2]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions of 8 provinces focus on the home appliance industry, aiming to promote the green and intelligent upgrading of large - scale durable consumer goods such as home appliances [2]. - The current iron ore price is divorced from supply - demand relations. The high price is due to capital games and speculation in the trading process. Accumulated port inventory and weak demand will suppress price increases [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sugar sources are diverse, the spot price is weakening, and the market will remain weak in the future. Attention should be paid to demand changes. The focus of the market has shifted to the pressure on prices brought by the increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere. The reduction of the sugarcane purchase price in Thailand has put pressure on the international raw sugar market. In the domestic market, although the import quota for this year is almost used up, the import cost continues to decrease, and domestic sugar producers are worried that low - priced processed sugar next year will seize the market share. There is competition in the market due to the accelerated sugar - cane pressing in Guangxi [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5328 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the main contract position is 241501 hands, a decrease of 18964 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 396, an increase of 215; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56723 hands, an increase of 1625 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1705, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4017 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan. The import estimated price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5087 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 87 yuan. The spot prices in Yunnan Kunming, Guangxi Nanning, and Guangxi Liuzhou are 5340 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), 5370 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and 5460 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 593.35 million tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 237.4 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 million tons. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, an increase of 20 million tons, and the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, an increase of 74 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, an increase of 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 10.01%, an increase of 1.39%; that of at - the - money put options is 10%, an increase of 1.38%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, an increase of 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.02%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 195528 hands, an increase of 28109 hands from the previous week. The long position was 165775 hands, an increase of 1384 hands, and the short position was 361303 hands, an increase of 29493 hands. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the ICE fell 0.15 cents or 1.0% to settle at 14.67 cents per pound due to concerns about supply from major producing countries [2]. Sugar - Cane Pressing Situation - As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - pressing season, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi have started pressing, 11 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane pressing capacity of 42.5 million tons, 11.25 million tons less than the same period last year. 10 more sugar mills are expected to start pressing this week. 12 sugar mills in Yunnan have started pressing, 6 more than the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the future unloading of foreign vessels should be monitored. The overall olefin industry's operating rate has increased, but it is expected to decline due to the planned maintenance of Ningbo Fude. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2090 in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2053 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 642135 lots, down 81461 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 161954 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8722, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest price spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 17 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 242 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 317 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 257 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 75 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.58 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.28 dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 83.06 tons, down 10.82 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.38 tons, down 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is - 2.58 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 361500 tons, down 12200 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.09%, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.88%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operating rate is 69.97%, unchanged; the olefin operating rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.89%, down 0.48%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.5%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.51%, down 1.55% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers is 35.28 tons, down 0.87 tons (2.40% MoM), and the pending orders are 20.75 tons, down 3.22 tons (13.45% MoM). The total port inventory is 123.44 tons, down 11.5 tons. As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 91.78%, up 0.88% MoM [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points. The upstream zinc ore imports have declined, and domestic refinery profits are shrinking, with expected production drops. Overseas supply remains tight, and China may turn into a net exporter. The downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, while the auto sector has some policy - supported highlights. The zinc price is expected to adjust at a high level, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 23,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 23,075 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 25 yuan/ton. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,089 US dollars/ton. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 203,288 lots, and the net open interest of the top 20 is 12,154 lots. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 91,916 tons, and LME inventory is 58,150 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 (Spot Market) - The 0 zinc spot price on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,070 yuan/ton, and the 1 zinc spot price in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,850 yuan/ton. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 5 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 162.99 US dollars/ton. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,780 yuan/ton, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, and the ILZSG balance is 47,900 tons. Global zinc mine output is 1.0976 million tons, and domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, and exports are 8,518.67 tons. Zinc social inventory is 132,500 tons. The output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, and the sales volume is 2.28 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The newly - started housing area is 49,061.39 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 34,861 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, and air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for zinc is 14.25%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.82%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.93% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week. The Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates. The Bank of Japan governor hinted at future interest rate hikes. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chairman and may adjust tariffs [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate with a bullish bias, suggesting attention be paid to the range of 320,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton. The macro - economic situation shows the US "small non - farm" ADP improvement, and the Federal Reserve has "ample room" to cut interest rates. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, processing fees are low, refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and overall trading volume is low. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise indicates a warming of the bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 322,630 yuan/ton, up 10,310 yuan; the 1 - 2 month contract closing price is - 770 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 39,850 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 47,499 lots, up 4,075 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is 753 lots, up 1,084 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 3,050 tons, down 25 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, up 506 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,151 tons, down 86 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 317,140 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 41 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, up 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 203,370 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,245,400 tons, up 136,100 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Federal Reserve's October JOLTS job vacancies rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high. - The Bank of Japan Governor hinted at future interest rate hikes "more than once". - Trump considered two candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and there were speculations about interest rate cuts and tariff adjustments [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Fed rate cut expectations boost the precious metals market sentiment, with London platinum and palladium prices breaking through the trading range, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showing a slightly stronger intraday performance. In the medium to long term, platinum may continue to see price support under expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and long - term expansion of demand in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, with the market shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by rate cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective option again. Recently, palladium prices have shown stronger resilience than platinum, and a subsequent catch - up rally may continue [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 444.45, up 4.75; palladium's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 387.65, up 4.15. Platinum's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 10387, down 277; palladium's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 3179, up 90 [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 438.26, up 7.18; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 366, up 6. The platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 6.19, up 2.43; the palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 21.65, up 1.85. Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 9966, down 243; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 3003, down 342 [2] Supply and Demand - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2] Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.24, up 0.27; the VIX volatility index is 16.93, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.01 [2] Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for the Fed to cut rates. US President Trump said he will use support for immediate and substantial rate cuts as a "litmus test" for the new Fed chair and may adjust tariff policies to lower some commodity prices. ADP data shows that US private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses, and US job openings in October were 7.67 million, far exceeding the expected 7.117 million. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue to slowly adjust monetary easing until it achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target and the policy rate returns to the natural rate level, and will increase bond purchases in "special cases" due to the recent rapid rise in interest rates [2] Key Points of Attention - At 03:00 on December 11, the Fed will announce its December FOMC meeting interest rate decision [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the market has largely priced in a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut, and the recent rapid rise of silver prices may increase short - term correction risks. In the long - term, the US debt problem may enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and central bank gold purchases will provide strong support for gold prices. The suggested price ranges are: Shanghai Gold Main 2602 contract at 930 - 980 yuan/gram; Shanghai Silver Main 2602 contract at 13300 - 14500 yuan/kilogram; London Gold at 4100 - 4300 US dollars/ounce; London Silver at 58 - 62 US dollars/ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 956.400 yuan/gram, up 4.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 14373 yuan/kilogram, up 766 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 192,659.00 lots, down 1834 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8,972.00 lots, down 9632 lots [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 222,609.00 lots, down 6955 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 1,814,842.00 lots, up 505812 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 91299 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 741,845 kilograms, up 24057 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 950.91 yuan, up 3.78 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 14,276.00 yuan, up 646 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 5.49 yuan/gram, down 1.08 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 97.00 yuan/gram, down 120 yuan [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1047.97 tons, down 1.14 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,973.16 tons, up 84.62 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net position of gold was 202307.00 contracts, down 2357 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net position of silver was 33,221.00 contracts, down 3898 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The quarterly total demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the annual total demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - **Indices**: The US dollar index was 99.24, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.92%, up 0.01%; the VIX volatility index was 16.93, up 0.27; the CBOE gold volatility index was 20.35, up 0.77; the S&P 500/gold price ratio was 1.63, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 71.60, down 0.15 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Fed Expectations**: The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points for the third time with internal differences, and may hint at a pause. The market has highly priced in this rate cut. Kevin Hassett believes there is more room for rate cuts, and Trump will use support for significant rate cuts as a criterion for choosing the new Fed chairman [2]. - **US Economy**: US private employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks to November 22, ending four - week job losses. US job openings in October were 7.67 million, far exceeding the expected 7.117 million [2]. - **Japan's Central Bank**: The Bank of Japan will continue to gradually adjust monetary easing until it achieves 2% inflation and the policy rate returns to the natural rate. It will increase bond purchases in "special cases" [2].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/10 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,724.00 | -8.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,434.00 | -28.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 630,101.00 | -6 ...