1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. The price of rebar futures first declined and then rebounded. With the end of the parade and the weakening influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, there is an expectation of a recovery in downstream demand. It is recommended to trade the RB2601 contract in the range of 3100 - 3200, paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it is suggested to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on September 5, the price of the rebar main contract was 3143 yuan/ton (- 17 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3260 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton). - Rebar production decreased slightly to 218.68 million tons (- 1.88 million tons), with a year - on - year increase of 40.15 million tons. - Apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 202.07 million tons (- 2.14 million tons), with a year - on - year decrease of 16.62 million tons. - Factory and social inventories increased simultaneously. The total rebar inventory was 6.4 billion tons (+ 166.1 million tons), with a year - on - year increase of 843.7 million tons. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 56.71 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal. The market's attention shifted to the US non - farm payroll data on Friday. Weak employment data might trigger discussions about a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. Domestically, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing market demand. The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 with a term of 3 months [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: Weekly rebar production decreased, the capacity utilization rate was 47.94%, and the EAF steel operating rate continued to decline. End - users purchased on demand, inventory increased for six consecutive weeks, and apparent demand declined [7]. - **Cost aspect**: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly, and the expectation of recovering demand supported the firmness of iron ore prices. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased to 75.8%, and the decline in clean coal inventory supported the rebound of coking coal and coke prices [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The RB2601 contract consolidated sideways, with technical support around 3100. It was testing the pressure of the MA10 moving average in the short term. The MACD indicator showed that the downward momentum of DIFF and DEA weakened, and the green bar slightly shrank [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: This week, the RB2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 5th was - 89 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On September 5, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 230,731 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,234 tons. The top 20 net positions of rebar futures contracts were a net short of 183,815 lots, a decrease of 576 lots from the previous week [20]. - **Spot price and basis**: On September 5, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3279 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 5th was 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [32]. - **Iron ore arrivals and inventory**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 144.2572 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.377 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3033 million tons, a decrease of 0.0381 million tons [36]. - **Coking plant situation**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.61% (- 0.09%), the daily coke output was 512,100 tons (- 700 tons), coke inventory was 407,100 tons (+ 9000 tons), the total coking coal inventory was 7.8095 million tons (- 0.3892 million tons), and the available days of coking coal were 11.5 days (- 0.55 days) [40]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply side**: - **Crude steel production**: In July 2025, the national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative national crude steel production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - **Rebar production**: On September 4, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 218.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 40.15 million tons compared to the same period last year [47]. - **EAF steel operating rate**: On September 5, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 73.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 23.99 percentage points [50]. - **Rebar inventory**: On September 4, the in - factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 1.7134 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 249,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities nationwide was 4.6866 million tons, an increase of 148,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 593,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 6.4 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 166.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 843.7 million tons [53]. - **Downstream situation**: - **Demand side**: From January to July 2025, the newly - started housing area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year [56]. 3.5 Option Market - Currently, the steel market is relatively weak, but as building steel enters the peak season, downstream enterprises may have restocking needs. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both increased, with soda ash futures rising by 0.46% and glass futures by 0.59%. The soda ash futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures also followed a similar pattern. Looking ahead, soda ash is expected to have a loose supply and stable demand, with prices remaining under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. For glass, the market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If there is a domestic follow - up interest rate cut, the market may see growth [6]. - For the SA2601 contract, it is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, soda ash futures first fell and then rose. The increase in soda ash production news in the first half of the week led to a sharp decline, but on Friday, the price increased significantly due to the sharp rise in glass prices. Glass futures also showed a similar trend, falling in the first half of the week due to poor fundamentals and recovering losses on Friday driven by the rise in coking coal prices and bullish market sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production have increased. However, due to the decline in profits, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, and production may slow down. The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains at a low level. The profit of the glass industry continues to decline due to weak demand and falling spot prices. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week due to replenishment by major traders, but the de - stocking process is still volatile. For glass, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to accumulate again, but the de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened, and the probability of an interest rate cut is increasing [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For the SA2601 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both closed higher [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash has decreased this week, and the basis has strengthened. As of September 4, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market was reported at 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the basis was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. The spot price of glass has weakened, and the basis has strengthened, and it is expected to strengthen further in the future. As of September 4, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was reported at 1056 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the basis was reported at - 83 yuan/ton [12][16]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between soda ash and glass has weakened this week, and it is expected to strengthen next week. As of September 4, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was reported at 138 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: This week, the domestic operating rate and production of soda ash have increased. As of September 4, 2025, the national operating rate of soda ash was reported at 86.52%, a month - on - month increase of 3.94%, and the national weekly production of soda ash was reported at 75.17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53%. However, the profit of soda ash has decreased, and the cost has increased. It is expected that the production capacity of soda ash will decline next week [24][29][31]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains unchanged. There are signs of rigid - demand production, and the profit continues to decline. It is expected that the production will remain at a low level next week. There are signs of production line resumption, and the production is expected to increase slightly next week, but the increase will be limited [31][36]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of September 4, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the joint - alkali process in China was - 48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1687 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton. The profit of glass enterprises has also decreased, mainly due to the decline in spot prices [34]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week, mainly due to replenishment by major traders. The inventory of glass enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the de - stocking speed will slow down next week. As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise inventory of soda ash was 182.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%, and the total inventory of glass was 63.05 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.77% [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream have increased slightly, but the demand remains low. As of August 15, 2025, the average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [53].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 沪铅市场周报 联储降息有望来临，沪铅需求有望增加 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货呈现震荡态势。沪期铅主力合约2510表现活跃，本周沪铅2510上涨0.12%。 整体来说本周沪铅在供给下行，需求平稳的表现下，小幅上行为主。 u 行情展望：从供应端来看，从已有的企业生产计划来看，原生铅冶炼厂暂无大规模扩产或减产计划， 预计产量将维持相对稳定状态。不过，需要关注铅精矿供应情况，当前铅精矿供应偏紧的局面尚未 得到明显改善，这可能在一定程度上限制原生铅产量的提升。再生铅供应区域性差异显著。废电瓶 原料端供应紧张，冶炼厂因成本压力以及对后市价格的不确定性，信心不足。例如安徽地区开展污 水排查工作，对当地再生铅生产产生边际影响，部分企业生产受限，使得再生铅供应的不确定性增 加。从当前废电瓶市场来看，由于处于报废淡季，市场存量货源不多，炼厂到货情况不佳 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures continued to rise this week, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward, while in the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing and sufficient reserves have led to weak market sentiment. The corn futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher at low levels, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward. In the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing, continuous reserve corn release, and sufficient enterprise inventories have led to weak market sentiment. The futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure at the 60 - day moving average and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [8]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 11 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 915,637 lots, down 67,642 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 197,852 lots, down 11,035 lots from the previous week [16]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 59,080, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 46,611, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week [22]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 57,753 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 lots [28]. Spot Price and Basis - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 136 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,900 yuan/ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 331 yuan/ton [33][37]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 20 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 24 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. Substitute Spread - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,425.78 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 65.19 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch continued to widen, with an average spread of 212 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous week [57]. 3. Industry Chain Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 73.5 tons, down 3.5 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 112.7 tons, down 14.5 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 24 tons, down 3.1 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1,030,000 tons (94.5%) compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the previous month [65]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 4, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.63 days, down 0.5 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [69]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [73]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 32.24 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 148.41 yuan/head [77]. - **Processing Profit**: As of September 4, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 110 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 396 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 680 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 257 yuan/ton [82]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% [86]. - **Starch Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, down 23,700 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 246,800 tons, down 17,100 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 47.7%, down 3.31% from the previous week. As of September 3, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.265 million tons, down 53,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2% [90]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of September 5, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.39%, a decrease of 1.31% from 10.7% in the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and decreased this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [93].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约1.69%。 行情展望：国际方面，美国农业部(USDA)驻巴西专员发布的报告显示，预计巴西 2025/26年度棉花产量预估上修至1810万包（约394万吨），较最初预测的1780万包 （约387万吨）提高1.6%，较2024/25年度创记录的1700万包（约370万吨）增长 6.5%，上调原因主要是种植面积扩大。国内方面，棉花商业库存处于近年来相对低 位水平，且进口同比大幅减少，新棉上市前供应趋于偏紧状态。需求端，市场对 "金九银十"需求旺季有一定预期。截至目前主流纺企开机负荷在六成附近，环比 上升明显，刷新逾一个月最高水平，旺季订单在缓慢回暖过程。总体来说，新棉大 量上市前，国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求边际回暖，预计期价延续高位震荡运行。 策略建议，操作上，郑棉2601合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fell from a high, with a weekly decline of 2.22% and an amplitude of 2.86%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 272,460 yuan/ton. - Macroeconomically, the expansion speed of the US ISM Services PMI reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. The ADP employment growth in the US in August slowed down significantly to 54,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 237,000, reaching the highest level since June. - Fundamentally, although Wa State in Myanmar has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. - On the smelting side, the increase in production in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. - On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the recovery period of the peak season, and the recovery of orders is relatively slow. Recently, the tin price has oscillated downward, but most downstream and end - user enterprises still adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and some downstream enterprises make small - scale purchases. The spot premium has rebounded to 200 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. - Technically, as the position decreases and the price falls, the bullish sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to the competition around the MA10. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily, and pay attention to the range of 270,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fell from a high this week, with a weekly decline of 2.22% and an amplitude of 2.86%. The closing price of the main contract was 272,460 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic data in the US shows mixed signals. Fundamentally, there are issues in both supply and demand. Technically, the market is cautious [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and pay attention to the price range of 270,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 272,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,270 yuan/ton or 2.25% from August 29. As of September 4, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 34,425 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 400 US dollars/ton or 1.15% from August 29 [10]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.25, an increase of 0.02 from August 29. As of September 4, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.9, an increase of 0.08 from August 28 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 14 lots, an increase of 1,212 lots from September 1, 2025. The position of Shanghai Tin was 59,035 lots, a decrease of 15,494 lots or 20.79% from August 29 [20]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In July 2025, the import of tin ore concentrates was 10,277.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.58%. From January to July, the import of tin ore concentrates was 72,406.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.15%. In July 2025, the refined tin production was 15,448 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin production was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.34% [24][25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On September 5, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on September 4, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also the same as on September 4, 2025 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export and Profit**: As of September 5, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 8,105.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12,552.71 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025. In July 2025, the refined tin import volume was 2,166.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.34% and a year - on - year increase of 157.87%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin import was 15,110.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.88%. In July 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,672.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin export was 13,463.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.99% [34][35]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,230 tons, an increase of 220 tons or 10.95% from August 29. The total tin inventory was 7,773 tons, an increase of 207 tons or 2.74% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,397 tons, an increase of 124 tons or 1.7% from August 29 [43]. Demand Side - **Semiconductor Index**: On September 4, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,667.86, a decrease of 156.75 or 2.69% from August 27. From January to July 2025, the integrated circuit production was 29,454,570.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,009,313.4 million pieces or 20.49% compared with the same period last year [46]. - **Tin - Coated Plate**: As of July 2025, the tin - coated plate production was 110,000 tons, the same as in June 2025. The tin - coated plate export volume was 206,020.05 tons, an increase of 73,104.23 tons or 55% from June [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Supported by the main logic of the Fed's September interest rate cut, the trading sentiment in the precious metals market was highly optimistic, and the gold prices in both domestic and international markets continued to hit record highs. However, there was pressure for a phased correction due to overbought behavior, and the market entered a high - level shock [8]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut has risen to 99%, and the expectation has been largely digested by the market. In the short term, there may be a need for a correction. The market will focus on the US August non - farm payrolls report. In the long term, the precious metals market is still supported by the marginal damage to the US dollar's credit and hedging demand [8]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider light - position layout at low levels after a correction. Specific price ranges are provided for different contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, US trade deficit, PMI data, and employment data, gold prices reached a record high this week. But since Thursday, the upward momentum of gold and silver prices has slowed down, and the market has entered a high - level shock [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The probability of a September interest rate cut is 99%, and the expectation has been digested. There may be a short - term correction. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls report. In the long run, the market is supported by the US dollar's credit and hedging demand [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see for now, and consider light - position layout at low levels after a correction. Provide price ranges for different contracts [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, COMEX silver was at $41.39 per ounce, up 1.56% week - on - week; COMEX gold was at $3606.50 per ounce, up 2.56% week - on - week. The Shanghai silver and gold futures contracts also had significant increases [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 4, 2025, the net holdings of foreign - market gold ETFs increased, while those of silver ETFs decreased slightly [12]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 26, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions increased, and silver speculative net positions decreased [17]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 26, 2025, the week - on - week increase in CFTC gold long positions and the decrease in short positions [22]. - **Basis Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, the gold basis in the Shanghai market weakened, and the silver basis strengthened [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 4, 2025, both gold and silver inventories increased [32]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of July 2025, silver imports decreased slightly, and silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The downstream semiconductor demand for silver drove the growth of integrated circuit production [38][43]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: The silver market was in a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year [48][54]. - **Gold Industry**: As of September 4, 2025, the gold recycling price and jewelry price increased with the rise of gold prices [58]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly, and the central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, causing a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [62]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The US dollar rebounded from oversold levels this week, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio continued to decline. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate decreased. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [65][69][73][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a state of oscillatory repair, and the stock - bond effect remains strong. The current bond market trend is restricted by changes in market risk preference, and short - term capital liquidity is the core logic affecting bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on the performance of domestic fundamental data in August. If economic growth momentum continues to slow down and the exchange rate remains stable, it may boost the market's expectation of aggregate easing policies in the fourth quarter. The yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [4][98] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury futures rose by 0.75%, 0.43%, 0.28%, and 0.06% respectively this week. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, while their positions all increased [13][17][23][31] - **Yield Changes of Treasury Bonds**: The yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends this week. The yields to maturity of 1 - 2Y bonds increased by 0.9 - 2bp, those of 3 - 10Y bonds decreased by 1.2 - 2bp, and the yield to maturity of 30Y bonds increased by about 1bp to 2.03% [11][68] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policies**: On September 1, the SCO Summit issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. On September 3, the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting to discuss bond - related issues. Also on September 3, 12 provinces raised the minimum wage standard this year. On September 4, the Ministry of Commerce announced the first anti - circumvention investigation ruling in China [34][35] - **Overseas Situations**: On September 3, there was a global long - term treasury bond sell - off. The yield of 30 - year US treasury bonds exceeded 5%, and the yields of bonds in other countries also reached high levels. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the economic activity in most regions of the US remained almost unchanged. On September 4, the ADP employment data in the US in August was lower than expected, and the initial jobless claims reached a new high since June, increasing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September [35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads of Treasury Bonds**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds widened slightly, and the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds narrowed significantly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts of treasury futures widened slightly. The inter - period spread of 10 - year contracts narrowed significantly, and that of 30 - year contracts widened. The inter - period spreads of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed slightly [44][48][52] - **Main Contract Positions**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T main contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Bond Yields**: The overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fell to around 1.43%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds narrowed slightly [73] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 106.84 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 227.31 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 120.47 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell to around 1.44% [75] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 110.1925 billion yuan, the total repayment was 68.6488 billion yuan, and the net financing was 41.5438 billion yuan [80] - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1064, with a cumulative increase of 71 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates weakened [86] - **US Bond Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds oscillated upwards, and the VIX index declined slightly [91] - **A - share Risk Premium Rate**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, and the non - manufacturing PMI expanded faster. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year - on - year, and the economic recovery slowed down. In the future, policies to stabilize growth may accelerate [97] - **Overseas Situations**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for 6 consecutive months, and the service PMI rebounded. The labor market showed signs of weakness, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September increased [97] - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market is restricted by market risk preference. It is recommended to focus on domestic fundamental data in August. The yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated at a low level, with a weekly change of +0.07% and an amplitude of 1.76%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the expansion speed of the US ISM Services PMI reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and still high prices. The ADP employment growth in the US in August slowed down significantly to 54,000 people, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with the obvious increase in sulfuric acid prices, the profits of smelters have been further repaired, and the production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various places have been gradually released, and the resumption of production of previously overhauled capacities has accelerated the supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream is at the end of the off - season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not large, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has shown a stable and rising trend. Recently, zinc prices have fallen to a low level, but downstream enterprises have maintained the action of purchasing on demand, with a dull trading atmosphere. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has slightly increased at a low level. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, which provides support for zinc prices [4]. - Technically, the position has increased while the price has fallen, and the short - selling sentiment has heated up. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,000 mark [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long lightly on dips [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated at a low level this week, with a weekly change of +0.07% and an amplitude of 1.76%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic indicators in the US show mixed signals. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is still in the off - season transition. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere is rising [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, Shanghai Zinc futures prices were weak, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,155 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.07% from August 29, 2025. As of September 4, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 2,838 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars/ton or 1.83% from August 29, 2025 [7]. - **Net Positions of Top 20 Traders**: As of September 5, 2025, the net position of the top 20 traders in Shanghai Zinc was - 11,394 lots, a decrease of 3,473 lots from August 29, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 226,104 lots, an increase of 2,413 lots or 1.08% from August 29, 2025 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of September 5, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025 [15]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of September 5, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,060 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.18% from August 29, 2025. The spot discount was 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of September 4, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was 16.21 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.51 US dollars/ton from August 28, 2025 [21]. - **Inventories**: As of September 4, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 54,750 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons or 5.6% from August 28, 2025. As of September 5, 2025, Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 87,032 tons, an increase of 1,052 tons or 1.22% from last week. As of September 4, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 138,300 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons or 6.47% from August 28, 2025 [24]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In June 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0814 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. In July 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 501,424.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [30]. - **Supply Side - Global Refined Zinc Supply**: According to ILZSG data, in June 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26,300 tons or 2.22%; global refined zinc consumption was 1.1837 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31,100 tons or 2.7%; the global refined zinc gap was 27,200 tons, compared with a surplus of 30,200 tons in the same period last year. According to the WBMS report, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [35][36]. - **Supply Side - Refined Zinc Production**: In July 2025, zinc production was 617,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc output was 4.166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [39]. - **Supply Side - Refined Zinc Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 17,903.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%; the export volume of refined zinc was 406.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.11% [42]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to July 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 790,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.92%. In July 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.92%; the export volume was 346,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.29% [45]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area was 352.0614 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.3441 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.728655 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 791.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [50][51]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [56]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In July 2025, refrigerator production was 8.7307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to July, the cumulative refrigerator production was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In July 2025, air - conditioner production was 20.5965 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to July, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [60]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In July 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coils can be traded in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, considering the increasing expectations of loose monetary policies in China and the US, and the expected improvement in demand after the resumption of work in enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region following the end of the military parade [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of September 5, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3340 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [7] - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 314.24 million tons, down 10.5 million tons week - on - week but up 3.76 million tons year - on - year [7] - Apparent demand declined to 305.36 million tons, down 15.36 million tons week - on - week and 4.01 million tons year - on - year [7] - Total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly to 374.34 million tons, up 8.88 million tons week - on - week but down 68.64 million tons year - on - year [7] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, down 2.60 percentage points week - on - week but up 56.71 percentage points year - on - year [7] 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal; the market is focusing on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday, and weak data may trigger discussions on a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. Domestically, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 [9] - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly production of hot - rolled coils decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.27%; terminal demand was affected, inventory increased, and apparent demand declined [9] - Cost aspect: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly, and the expected improvement in demand supported the firmness of iron ore prices. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased to 75.8%, and the decline in clean coal inventory supported the rebound of coking coal prices [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2601 contract was consolidating in a range, with technical support around 3300 yuan/ton, and it was testing the pressure of the MA10/MA20 moving averages in the short term; the downward momentum of the DIFF and DEA in the MACD indicator weakened, and the green bars shrank [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - The HC2601 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the price difference on September 5 was 26 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 5, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,059 tons, down 601 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 futures contracts of hot - rolled coils was 113,503 lots, an increase of 10,966 lots from the previous week [22] 2.3 Spot Price - On September 5, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3420 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on September 5 was 60 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton week - on - week [26] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane iron ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [33] 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From August 25 - 31, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China increased. The total arrival volume of 47 ports was 26.45 million tons, up 1.827 million tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume of 45 ports was 25.26 million tons, up 1.327 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume of the six northern ports was 13.008 million tons, up 1.478 million tons week - on - week [38] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China was 144.2572 million tons, up 0.377 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3033 million tons, down 0.0381 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 60.1702 million tons, down 1.1329 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.9296 million tons, up 0.662 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 91.6996 million tons, down 0.5806 million tons [42] 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.61%, down 0.09 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 51.21, down 0.07; the coke inventory was 40.71, up 0.9; the total inventory of coking coal was 780.95, down 38.92; the available days of coking coal were 11.5 days, down 0.55 days [46] 4. Industry Conditions 4.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative national crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [49] - In July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 0.158 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 0.452 million tons, a decrease of 0.018 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%; from January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [49] - On September 5, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.4%, down 2.80 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.77 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, down 4.23 percentage points week - on - week but up 2.19 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2884 million tons, down 0.1129 million tons week - on - week but up 0.0623 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 31.424 million tons, down 1.05 million tons from the previous week but up 0.376 million tons year - on - year [52] - On September 4, the in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 7.998 million tons, up 0.003 million tons from the previous week but down 1.447 million tons year - on - year. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 29.436 million tons, up 0.858 million tons week - on - week but down 5.417 million tons year - on - year. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 37.434 million tons, up 0.888 million tons week - on - week but down 6.864 million tons year - on - year [57] 4.2 Demand Side - In July 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.593 million and 2.591 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.7% and 13.3%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.0% [60] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the production of household refrigerators was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the production of household washing machines was 68.1282 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [60]