Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment has declined, leading to a correction in the silicon ferroalloy sector, with prices showing a weak trend. The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand situation has its own characteristics. The short - term market is mainly priced by the industry, and considering the approaching military parade on September 3rd, funds are cautious. The silicon ferroalloy main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In August, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time. After the peak summer period, power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in China have cut deposit rates by 10 - 20 basis points. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell indicated an open attitude towards interest rate cuts, causing a sharp rebound in the night - session of the black futures market. Trump announced the dismissal of a Fed governor, and Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting, expecting further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks. Most manufacturers have hedged in the early stage, and inventory is at a neutral level. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has increased, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 185 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 40 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term market is mainly priced by the industry. With the approaching military parade on September 3rd, funds are cautious. The alloy is expected to weaken with the sector. The silicon ferroalloy main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 29, the position volume of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 412,000 lots, a decrease of 30,686 lots compared to the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts was 164, a decrease of 6 points compared to the previous period. As of August 28, the number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 19,201, a decrease of 1,001 compared to the previous period. As of August 29, the spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [12][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 points compared to the previous period [21]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: As of August 28, the national average capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 36.54%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. The daily average output was 16,155 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31% (50 tons). The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products was 20,573.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The national weekly supply of silicon ferroalloy was 113,100 tons [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 62,910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34% (830 tons). The inventory in Inner Mongolia increased by 1,400 tons, while that in Ningxia decreased by 200 tons [30]. - **Upstream**: As of August 25, the electricity price for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged compared to the previous period. As of August 28, the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia remained unchanged compared to the previous period. As of August 29, the spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The spot production profit in Ningxia was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and that in Inner Mongolia was - 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [35][41]. - **Downstream**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.924 million tons. From January to July 2025, the total export volume of silicon ferroalloy was 236,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91%. The silicon ferroalloy tender price in August was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to July [43][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, maintain a bearish outlook. This week, corn futures rebounded from lows. The US corn production forecast is high but lower than the USDA's August prediction. Domestically, new - crop corn is approaching the listing period, supply is expected to be ample, and demand is weak. However, the futures price rebounded slightly due to short - covering [9][10]. - For corn starch, also maintain a bearish outlook. The industry's operating rate has increased, supply pressure has risen, and demand is in the off - season. Although the inventory has decreased slightly, it is still significantly higher year - on - year. The futures price was boosted by the corn rebound [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Corn** - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish view [9]. - **Market Review**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2191 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Outlook**: US production forecast is high but lower than USDA's prediction. Domestic new - crop corn is coming, supply is expected to be abundant, demand is weak, and the futures price rebounded due to short - covering [10]. - **Corn Starch** - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish view [13]. - **Market Review**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2501 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Outlook**: The operating rate has increased, supply pressure has risen, demand is in the off - season, and the futures price was boosted by the corn rebound. As of August 27, the inventory was 131.8 tons, down 2.10 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.57%, a monthly increase of 0.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.41% [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures 11 - month contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 983,279 lots, an increase of 28,014 lots from last week [20]. - Corn starch futures 11 - month contract oscillated slightly higher, with a total position of 208,887 lots, an increase of 6,098 lots from last week [20]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - Corn futures' top 20 net position was - 85,810, compared with - 97,205 last week, and the net short position decreased [26]. - Starch futures' top 20 net position was - 35,033, compared with - 20,670 last week, and the net short position increased [26]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - Yellow corn registered warehouse receipts were 69,426 [32]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts were 7,450 [32]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of August 28, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2365.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 174 yuan/ton [37]. - Corn starch in Jilin was reported at 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong at 2950 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 349 yuan/ton [42]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread** - The corn 11 - 1 spread was 11 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - The starch 11 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The 11 - month contract spread between starch and corn was 310 yuan/ton. In the 35th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 370 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Substitute Spread** - As of August 28, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2429.83 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2365.29 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 64.54 yuan/ton [62]. - In the 35th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 184 yuan/ton, widening by 27 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply** - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 770,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.272 million tons, a decrease of 239,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 271,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons week - on - week [52]. - In July 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 94.50%, and a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with the same period last month [70]. - As of August 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.13 days, a decrease of 0.72 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.50%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [74]. - **Demand** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million [78]. - As of August 22, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 33.95 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 151.8 yuan/head [82]. - As of August 28, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 65 yuan/ton [87]. - As of August 29, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 456 yuan/ton, in Jilin - 630 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang - 207 yuan/ton [87]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply** - As of August 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.942 million tons, a decrease of 6.51% [91]. - From August 21 to 27, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 539,300 tons, a decrease of 9700 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 263,900 tons, a decrease of 6700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 51.01%, a decrease of 1.3% from last week. As of August 27, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.318 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.57%, a monthly increase of 0.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.41% [95]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 29, the implied volatility of the corn main 2511 contract was 10.7%, up 0.97% from 9.73% last week. The implied volatility oscillated and rebounded this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2330 - 2410 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of inland methanol enterprises increased this week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The increase in port inventory depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels [8] - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in China is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2330 - 2410 range in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market weakened, and the inland market declined. The price ranges in different regions are provided [8] - Market outlook: Production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory increased, and port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price movement: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.83% [13] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 29, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 11 [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of August 29, there were 9746 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 920 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 29, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2222.5 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; in Northwest Inner Mongolia, it was 2050.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 28, methanol CFR China Main Port was 258 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China Main Port was 64 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 29, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 138.5 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of August 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 28, NYMEX natural gas closed at 299 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.18 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] - Industry: As of August 28, China's methanol production was 1918285 tons, an increase of 24290 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase [44] - Inventory: As of August 27, the total port inventory was 129.93 million tons, an increase of 22.33 million tons. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 33.34 million tons, a 7.27% increase [49] - Import: In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 110.27 million tons, a 9.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 648.00 million tons, a 14.66% year - on - year decrease. As of August 28, the import profit was - 0.72 yuan/ton, down 17.2 yuan/ton from last week [52] - Downstream: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins was 86.41%, a 0.71% increase. As of August 29, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 909 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from last week [55][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in China have cut deposit rates. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, which boosted the night - session of black commodities. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July increased significantly. The iron water output is at a high level, and the coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategically, affected by the Fed's potential rate cuts, the market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering the undecided eighth - round price increase, potential price cuts, and the approaching military parade on September 3rd, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption hit a record high, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, and some Fed officials support rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron water output is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons. The coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 55 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering various factors, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend, and the main contract of coke should be treated as a volatile operation [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 29th, the coke futures contract position was 48,700 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1011 lots. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of coke was 162.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 110.5 points. The warehouse receipt volume increased by 90 lots week - on - week, and the ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.02 points week - on - week [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 28th, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. As of August 29th, the coke basis was - 142.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.5 points. In July, the output of raw coal by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [25][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Coking Enterprises**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.70%, a decrease of 1.47%. The daily coke output was 51,280 tons, a decrease of 1030 tons. The coke inventory was 398,100 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.1987 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.0 days, an increase of 0.18 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron water output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.1924 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of August 22nd, the total coke inventory was 8.5546 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.58% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The coke inventory in 18 ports was 2.6866 million tons, an increase of 400 tons. The inventory in 247 steel mills was 6.1007 million tons, an increase of 4800 tons [40]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Chart - **Export**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 158,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 24th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.6125 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 26.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.17%. The transaction area in first - tier cities was 402,800 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.97%. The transaction area in second - tier cities was 903,700 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 65.43% and a year - on - year increase of 3.61% [47][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, and power supply is stable after the peak - summer period. Many small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5175.4% year - on - year. Overseas, the Fed is open to interest rate cuts. In terms of supply and demand, the mine - end inventory has turned from decline to increase, and the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the weekly K - line of coking coal futures is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate, mainly determined by the industry in the short term, and affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, with cautious capital in the short term [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - 523 coking coal mines: The average daily output of raw coal is 188.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons week - on - week. - 314 independent coal washing plants: The daily output of clean coal is 26.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons week - on - week. - Total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills): 1898.37 tons, an increase of 11.01 tons week - on - week and 10.34% year - on - year. - Warehouse receipts: The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Tangshan is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. - Profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. - Profitability rate of steel mills: The profitability rate is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points year - on - year. - Demand - side hot metal production: The average daily hot metal output is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons week - on - week and an increase of 19.24 tons year - on - year [9]. Market Outlook - Macro: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh; many small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates; from January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5175.4% year - on - year. - Overseas: The Fed is open to interest rate cuts, which led to a sharp rebound in the night - session of black commodities. Trump plans to "fire" the current Fed governor, and Fed governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. - Supply and demand: The mine - end inventory has turned from decline to increase, and the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. - Technical: The weekly K - line of coking coal futures is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. - Strategy: The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate, mainly determined by the industry in the short term, and affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, with cautious capital in the short term [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - As of August 29, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 910,100 lots, an increase of 11,790 lots week - on - week. - As of August 29, the price difference between coking coal contracts 1 - 9 is 164.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.5 points week - on - week. - As of August 29, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 0 lots, unchanged from the previous period. - As of August 29, the ratio of the January coke - coking coal futures contract is 1.43, a decrease of 0.02 points week - on - week [14][23]. Spot Market - As of August 28, 2025, the ex - warehouse price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of August 29, the basis of coking coal is - 75.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.0 points week - on - week [27]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Upstream - The National Energy Administration aims to enhance overseas resource supply and cooperation with major coal - producing countries. From January to July, China's cumulative imports of coking coal decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. In July, the total import of coking coal was 962.30 tons, a 5.84% increase month - on - month. Mongolia is the largest source of imports, accounting for about 47% [55]. Industry - 523 coking coal mines: The capacity utilization rate is 84.0%, a decrease of 1.2% week - on - week. The average daily output of raw coal is 188.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons week - on - week. The raw coal inventory is 472.6 tons, an increase of 1.0 ton week - on - week. The average daily output of clean coal is 75.3 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory is 283.6 tons, an increase of 8.0 tons week - on - week. - 314 independent coal washing plants: The capacity utilization rate is 36.5%, an increase of 0.47% week - on - week. The daily output of clean coal is 26.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory is 289.5 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons week - on - week. - Total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills): As of August 22, 2025, it is 1898.37 tons, an increase of 11.01 tons week - on - week and 10.34% year - on - year. - Coking coal inventory in ports: The inventory in 16 ports is 455.41 tons, an increase of 4.96 tons week - on - week [31][35][40]. Downstream - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons week - on - week and an increase of 19.24 tons year - on - year. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points year - on - year. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 811.85 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons week - on - week, and the available days of coking coal are 13.25 days, an increase of 0.18 days week - on - week [44][48].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.29」 热轧卷板市场周报 成本端支撑减弱 热卷期价弱势运行 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至8月29日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3346（-6），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3450（+10）。（单位： 元/吨） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅下调。324.74（-0.5），（同比+19.78）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求小幅回落，但仍处高位。本期表需320.72（-0.55），（同比+15.42）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库小幅提升。总库存365.46（+4.02），（同比-76.41）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率63.64%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年增加59.74个百分点。 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行研讨会上的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. In the import rubber market, the quoted prices moved up, with high buying and replenishment sentiment among traders and strong actual order transactions. In the futures market, prices were strongly volatile. The spot quotes of domestic natural rubber followed the upward adjustment of the futures market, but the downstream inquiry atmosphere was not high, and market transactions were cautious with light actual order transactions [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material supply remains tight due to weather interference, and purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, local precipitation has slowed down the recovery of raw material supply, and local processing plants are still competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased at a larger month - on - month rate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and storage of overseas goods have decreased month - on - month, while the procurement sentiment of downstream tire enterprises is positive, and warehouse shipments are better than expected. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operation was stable this week, but some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The equipment operation of full - steel tire sample enterprises was stable, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises reduced production at the end of this week due to end - of - month maintenance, which also affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have 3 - 6 days of maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which may still drag down short - term capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15650 - 16200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market had positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. Import rubber market quotes moved up, with strong actual order transactions. The futures market was strongly volatile, and domestic natural rubber spot quotes followed the upward adjustment, but downstream transactions were cautious [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has tight raw material supply due to weather, and Hainan has slow supply recovery due to precipitation. Qingdao Port's inventory is decreasing, with reduced overseas arrivals and high downstream procurement. In the tire industry, semi - steel tire enterprises' capacity utilization is affected by maintenance, and full - steel tire enterprises also face some production reduction due to maintenance [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15650 - 16200, and the nr2510 contract between 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.5% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - standard rubber rose by 1.48% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not summarized in the text. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - standard rubber contracts 10 - 11 was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 29, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; 20 - standard rubber warehouse receipts were 45,662 tons, an increase of 828 tons from last week [26]. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis**: As of August 28, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Standard Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of August 28, the 20 - standard rubber basis was 354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Thai Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of August 28, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.45 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 50.7 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 29, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 35.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [38]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Prices**: As of August 28, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [41]. Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons, a decrease of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [49]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% from June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [59]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 3.63% this week. The preliminary estimate of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of August 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons from last week. The supply of early - maturing apples increased last week, affecting the inventory clearance speed [6]. - The trading of paper - bag Gala apples in the western producing areas has basically ended, and the overall quality of early - maturing apples is poor. The market is worried that late - maturing Fuji apples may also have the same problem. Due to concerns about the high - quality fruit rate, the expected opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples is high. With low inventory of old apples, high expected opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and expected demand for the Mid - Autumn Festival, the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and set stop - losses [6]. - Future trading factors to watch include inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 3.63% this week [6][9]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season apple production is expected to increase by 2.35%. Cold - storage inventory decreased. Early - maturing apple quality is poor, leading to high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 3.63% this week. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 6863 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 0 [6][9][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per jin; the price of bagged 75 above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per jin [19]. 3.3 Industry and Option Situation - **Supply Side**: As of August 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons from last week. The capacity utilization rates in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased [24]. - **Demand Side**: - As of August 21, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.3 yuan per jin [28]. - As of August 22, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.5 yuan per kg, a 0.21% increase; the wholesale price of apples was 9.74 yuan per kg, an 0.83% increase [33]. - As of August 22, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 6.87 yuan per kg, a 1.01% decrease [37]. - In July 2023, the export volume of fresh apples was 5 million tons, a 25% increase from the previous month [40]. - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the form of a graph [41]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable is presented in the form of a graph [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined with a weekly drop of about 1.16%. Globally, the production outlook of major sugar - producing countries in Asia is favorable, leading to a looser supply expectation. However, the market is concerned about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and there are signs of improved demand, causing the raw sugar price to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import pressure is released. The sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start to be crushed in September, increasing the supply temporarily. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking for the upcoming double festivals will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not large, but the number of processed sugar has increased, and the current inventory reduction process has slowed down significantly. For the new crop, the expected output in the new sugar - crushing season is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, factors such as a large increase in imports, the upcoming crushing of northern sugar mills, and the high expected output in the new season will suppress the sugar price to oscillate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price dropped with a 1.16% weekly decline. International raw sugar prices were low - level oscillating. Domestic imports soared, and future supply will increase, while demand will be promoted by pre - holiday stocking. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses. - **Future Focus**: Consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract rose by about 0.36% this week. As of August 19, 2025, non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.34% month - on - month, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2.60% month - on - month. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 17,161 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 13,916 [10][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.74 cents per pound, down 1.12% month - on - month. As of August 29, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,010 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,830 yuan per ton. As of August 27, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,786 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,772 yuan per ton, up 0.30% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,542 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,278 yuan per ton, down 2.22% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 44 yuan per ton, down 42.86% month - on - month. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,288 yuan per ton, down 2.20% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 58 yuan per ton [13][23][26][31]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of July 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 1.6123 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,500 tons. In July, China's sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, the sugar import volume was 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [35][37][42]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.79663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. ，3.4 Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [57].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.29」 国债期货周报 反弹动能不足，期债震荡修复 海外：1）美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值录得53.3，为2022年5月以来最高水平，远超预期的49.5。服务业PMI小幅回落至55.4，但制造 业大幅回升推动综合PMI升至9个月新高的55.4；2）美国上周初请失业金人数22.9万人，预期23万人，前值从23.5万人修正为23.4万人； 四周均值22.85万人，前值22.625万人；3）美国第二季度实际GDP年化修正值环比增3.3%，预期增3.1%，初值增3%。 汇率：人民币对美元中间价7.1030，本周累计调升33个基点。 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管： 1、上海6部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，包括符合条件的家庭外环外购房不限套数，成年单 身按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策；绿色建筑公积金贷款额度上浮15%，公积金落实"又提又贷"政策；房贷利率层面则不再区分首套和 二套房等；房产税征收层面也迎来微调，本地和外地户籍政策口径更为一致；2、《中共中央国务院关于 ...