Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) closed higher with a weekly increase of about 1.5%, and the cotton yarn futures contract (2511) rose 0.4% [6][18]. - Internationally, the price of ICE cotton futures fluctuates repeatedly due to the influence of the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and the spot price is firm. China's total quota for the sliding - duty tariff processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons [6]. - There are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [6]. - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply of old cotton is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the center of the main cotton contract has moved up slightly, but the medium - term space may be restricted by the increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices fluctuate due to the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is de - stocking, supply is tight before new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season. China's 2025 cotton planting area has increased, and weather impact on new crops should be watched. The main cotton contract may rise slightly but be restricted by new cotton production [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fluctuated this week with a weekly increase of about 0.01%. As of August 19, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 8.67% month - on - month [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 179,300 bales, including a net increase of 4,400 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland. As of August 27, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.2 cents per pound, down 0.89% month - on - month [13]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 69,475, and in cotton yarn futures was - 869. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,514, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 62 [18][23][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn C32S spot index price was 20,760 yuan per ton. As of August 28, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,820 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 27, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,385 yuan per ton, down 0.79% month - on - month; the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price was 14,220 yuan per ton, down 0.43% month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties had no month - on - month change [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of August 27, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton at the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price (M) was 1,122 yuan per ton, and at the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,957 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume was 780,000 tons [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [73]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly retail value of clothing was 66.85 billion yuan, down 25.57% month - on - month; the year - on - year monthly retail value of clothing was 0.2%, down 88.24% month - on - month [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - Related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of live pigs has declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 2.06% this week. In the near term, supply pressure remains, suppressing pig prices. However, the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, the slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, and the state's purchasing and storage measures boost market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term decline space is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs decreased, and the main contract 2511 dropped 2.06% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, due to the implementation of transportation policies on September 1 and possible supply reduction at the beginning of the month, the supply pressure is expected to ease briefly next week. But the supply pressure in the near - term remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of sow inventory. The widening price difference between fat and standard pigs provides conditions for late - stage pig holding and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchasing and storage" and "rotational purchasing and storage" to stabilize the market. With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous rise in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. Overall, the near - term supply pressure persists, but short - term price decline is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, and the net short position of the top 20 futures decreased. As of August 29, the net short position of the top 20 was 16,076 lots, a decrease of 853 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [10][12][16]. - **Spot Market** - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 13.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week and 3.84% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan from last week and 12.74% from the same period last month [27]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price in the week of August 21 was 24.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [37]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September live pig contract was 685 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 145 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Supply** - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5.0986 million heads, a slight increase of 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; the sow inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 174,000 heads, a slight decrease of 0.17% month - on - month and an increase of 6.67% year - on - year [42]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the second quarter, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year, and according to Mysteel data, it increased month - on - month in July. In July, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.145 million heads, an increase of 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4882 million heads, an increase of 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [45]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: According to Mysteel data, in July, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.4362 million heads, a decrease of 3.08% month - on - month and an increase of 18.60% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480,600 heads, a decrease of 1.46% month - on - month and an increase of 57.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.38 kg, unchanged from last week [50]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 3.4 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan/head from the previous month [56]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was a loss of 0.21 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.55 yuan/head [56]. - **Domestic Import**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imported pork was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [57][61]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 29, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [65]. - **Feed Situation** - **Feed Price**: As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,071.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,364.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 908.34, a 0.58% increase from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [70][74]. - **Feed Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly feed output was 2,827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons from the previous month [79]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 35th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 29.27%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. In the 34th week, the domestic cold storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [86]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a 1.1% year - on - year increase [91]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [92].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.29」 红枣市场周报 库存缓慢下降，红枣震荡偏强 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力价格上涨，周度涨幅2.45%。 行情展望：2024年红枣产量同比增长，导致旧作库存高于去年同期。据Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计，第35周36家样本点红枣物理库存在9456吨，较上周减少 63吨，环比减少0.66%，同比增加74.95%，样本点库存下降。销区到货量少，同 时下游采购积极性不高，导致购销清淡。市场对新季新疆灰枣减产认可，但是 产量预估存在一定分歧，关注9月降雨情况。总体来说，下游需求表现疲软，市 场购销一般，旧作库存处于缓慢去库存进程，基本面变化不大，新作减产情况 等待验证，红枣期货震荡略偏强，后市关注实际产量以及开秤价表现。操作上， 建议暂时观望。 未来交易提示： 1、天气影响 2、消费端 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by converging supply and rising demand. The fundamentals suggest a slowdown in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook [6]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to negative TC fees and rising raw material prices. Domestic refined copper production may decline slightly, while downstream demand is expected to recover due to macro - policy support and the approaching traditional consumption season [6]. - The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level, and the inventory accumulated during the off - season will gradually be depleted as consumption picks up [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the trading rhythm and risk [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly on the weekly line, with a weekly increase of +0.91% and an amplitude of 1.5%. The closing price of the main contract was 79,410 yuan/ton [6]. - **International and Domestic Policies**: The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. In China, policies are being improved to expand domestic demand and support enterprise innovation and employment [6]. - **Fundamentals**: TC fees are negative, and raw material prices are rising, providing cost support for copper prices. Domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and refined copper production may decline. Export demand may fall due to US tariffs, while domestic demand is expected to recover [6]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - **Contract and Spot Prices**: As of August 29, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week. The main contract price was 79,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan/ton from last week, and the position was 173,826 lots, an increase of 52,924 lots. The 1 electrolytic copper spot average price was 79,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton from last week [11][15]. - **Premium and Position**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 60 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 12,236 lots, a decrease of 10,323 lots from last week [22]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of August 29, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper at - the - money option contract fell to around the 25th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8325, a decrease of 0.0184 from last week [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 69,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **Imports and Price Difference**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,415.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 378.84 yuan/ton from last week [35]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 473,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period [40]. 3.3.2. Supply - side of the Industry - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. As of May 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, a growth rate of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [45]. - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss amount was 413.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 333.66 yuan/ton from last week [50][51]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory increased by 1,975 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,726 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,736 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 127,900 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from last week [54]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, a growth rate of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [58]. - **Application Fields**: - **Power Grid and Appliances**: As of July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 3.4% and 12.5% respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [64]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [71]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: As of June 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 46,500 tons [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market's fundamentals may show a situation where the supply growth rate converges and demand gradually recovers. The price of lithium carbonate may be supported. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control risks, and also to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [7][8][61] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change rate of - 2.25% and an amplitude of 7.37%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 77,180 yuan/ton [7] - **Macro Environment**: The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand, create a fair competition environment, and support enterprises in innovation and employment [7] - **Fundamentals**: Overseas miners may hold back supply and raise prices, and domestic mining disturbances will affect raw material supply, keeping lithium ore prices firm. High ore prices provide cost support for lithium prices. Given the current high supply and inventory pressure, the supply growth rate of lithium carbonate may slow down. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, downstream demand for replenishment will increase [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control trading rhythm to manage risks [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 77,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 740 yuan/ton [14] - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,470 yuan/ton [20] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 950 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1385, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [24] - **Lithium Mica**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 175 yuan/ton [29] 3.4 Industry Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The monthly production was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% month - on - month and 14.36% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [34] - **Demand Side** - **Intermediate Products**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of July 2025, the monthly production of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% month - on - month and 44.16% year - on - year [37] - **Cathode Materials**: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained flat, while the prices of ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate decreased. The production of lithium iron phosphate, electrolyte, ternary materials, and lithium cobaltate increased, while the production of lithium manganate decreased [37][42][45][50][53] - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of July 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly production was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%; the sales volume was 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [55][60] 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.04, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to bet on increased volatility and construct a long straddle option [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to be supported as the peak season approaches and demand recovers. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slight increase in supply and gradually rising demand [5]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend, rising 0.53% to 20,740 yuan/ton, while alumina showed a slightly downward trend, falling 3.25% to 3,036 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract first rose and then fell, rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is expected to gradually decline due to the rainy season in Guinea. Although raw material shipments will be affected, the supply of domestic alumina may remain stable with a slight increase due to sufficient port inventory and good smelting profits. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum will remain stable. The industry is expected to gradually recover as the traditional peak season approaches [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good, so smelters are more active in production. The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, domestic demand is expected to pick up, although export demand will decline due to tariff issues [5]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs may lead to a reduction in smelter production capacity. With the arrival of the peak season and government subsidies, consumption is expected to recover, and high - level inventory may gradually be reduced [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina and cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: - As of August 29, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,765 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 22; LME aluminum closed at 2,607 dollars/ton on August 28, up 1.16% from August 21. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.12 from August 22 [10][11]. - Alumina futures weakened, with the price dropping 3.87% to 3,006 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. Cast aluminum futures rose, with the price rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton during the same period [14]. - The copper - aluminum price difference increased by 610 yuan/ton to 58,670 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc price difference decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 1,400 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29 [22]. - In the spot market, alumina prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased slightly, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 1.47% to 20,750 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots decreased by 0.14% to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][32]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 29, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.29% to 576,966 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 8,544 lots to 4,602 lots compared with August 22 [17]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of August 28, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.34% to 481,150 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5% to 567,000 tons. As of August 29, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.8% to 125,596 tons, and the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2.6% to 58,629 tons [36][37]. - The total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 2,788 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18 million tons [40]. - **Raw Material Imports**: - In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [40]. - In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%, and the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [46]. - **Production and Trade**: - In July 2025, alumina production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33%, and the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.91% [48][49]. - In July 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume in July was 41,000 tons [52]. - In July 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July, the domestic in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.1% from the previous month and down 1.11% from the same period last year [56，]. - In July 2025, aluminum product production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%, and the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60]. - In June 2025, the monthly production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The production volume was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [63]. - In July 2025, aluminum alloy production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%, and the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [66]. - **Downstream Markets**: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%, and the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69]. - From January to July 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%, and the production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72]. 4. Options Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 28, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1175.0, up 0.90%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in July exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, and the power supply is stable after the peak - summer period. The mine - end inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 28, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1672.5, down 0.51%. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed the eighth - round price increase for coke. The demand side has high - level molten iron production (240.75 tons, +0.09 tons this period). The mine - end inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream, with the total coking coal inventory generally increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1175.00 yuan/ton, up 21.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1672.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan. The JM futures contract open interest was 927249.00 lots, up 14534.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 47918.00 lots, up 550.00 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 125180.00 lots, up 3769.00 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 4921.00 lots, up 296.00 lots. The JM1 - 9 contract spread was 155.00 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 contract spread was 89.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 820.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 978.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 125.00 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 102.50 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.00 tons, up 0.30 tons. The refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 289.50 tons, down 5.30 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged. The raw coal output was 38098.70 tons, down 4008.70 tons. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 tons, up 257.00 tons. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60 tons, down 2.60 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 450.45 tons, up 2.67 tons. The inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.62 tons, down 1.09 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 966.41 tons, down 10.47 tons. The inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 64.37 tons, up 1.86 tons. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 812.31 tons, up 6.51 tons. The inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.59 tons, down 0.21 tons. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 13.07 days, up 0.10 days. The available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 10.76 days, down 0.07 days. The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 tons, up 53.11 tons. The export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 tons, up 38.00 tons. The output of coking coal was 4064.38 tons, down 5.89 tons. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan. The output of coke was 4185.50 tons, up 15.20 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.34%, down 0.23%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03%. The crude steel output was 7965.82 tons, down 352.58 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Personal bankruptcy local regulations have been implemented in Xiamen. Chinese chip manufacturers plan to triple the production of AI chips in 2026. PetroChina is studying the application of stablecoins in cross - border settlement. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative visited Canada from August 24th to 27th and will then go to Washington, the United States [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On August 28, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5842, down 0.24%. The manganese - silicon should be treated as oscillating. The production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and after the recent price recovery, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. [2] - On August 28, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5624, down 0.60%. The ferrosilicon should also be treated as oscillating. After the profit improvement, the production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,842.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,624.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量 was 550,243.00 hands, down 2,826.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 416,169.00 hands, down 5,671.00 hands. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 73,477.00 hands, down 480.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 36,564.00 hands, down 1,473.00 hands. [2] - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 108.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 178.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan. [2] - SM仓单 was 66,783.00 sheets, down 715.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 19,201.00 sheets, down 125.00 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the prices of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan all decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia all decreased by 40 yuan/ton. [2] - The SM主力合约基差 was - 122.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 204.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block, Tianjin Port) was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 444.60 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise start - up rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%; the ferrosilicon enterprise start - up rate was 36.52%, up 0.34%. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 211,190.00 tons, up 4,130.00 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 113,400.00 tons, up 500.00 tons. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 156,000.00 tons, down 2,800.00 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 62,080.00 tons, down 3,100.00 tons. [2] - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the national steel mill inventory days of ferrosilicon was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days. [2] - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 125,285.00 tons, down 97.00 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 20,275.90 tons, down 38.06 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03%. [2] - The crude steel output was 7,965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Personal bankruptcy local regulations have been implemented in Xiamen. [2] - Chinese chip manufacturers are seeking to triple the production of AI chips in 2026 to reduce dependence on Nvidia. [2] - PetroChina is studying the possibility of using stablecoins in cross - border settlement payments. [2] - Chinese officials visited Canada and will meet with US officials. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 fell 3.31%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 8.7% week - on - week, and the spot indicators continued to fall, which is expected to drive down the futures prices. With shipping companies engaging in a "price war" and the global trade situation being uncertain due to potential tariff increases, and the weakening of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with the weak demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price is 1285.000, down 44.0; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1571, down 62.90. The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 is - 286.00, up 18.50; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 is - 115.00, up 9.80. The EC contract basis is 705.20, up 31.00. The main contract position of EC is 54,248, up 523 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly) is 1,041.38, down 64.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.44. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1,757.74, down 32.73. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2046.00, down 5.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1,874.00, down 56.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 14,606.00, up 204.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 26,364.00, down 1704.00 [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. In June, the global economic and trade friction index was 92, in the medium - high range. Affected by factors such as the US extending the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the global economic and trade friction continued to ease, with the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreasing by 14.7% year - on - year and 13.7% month - on - month. The New York Fed President Williams said it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time and is quite optimistic about the economic situation [1] Key Points to Watch - On August 29, important economic data will be released, including Japan's July unemployment rate, France's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, France's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, the US July core PCE price index annual rate, the US July personal expenditure monthly rate, and the US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 28, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5842, down 0.24%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5720, down 30 yuan/ton. From a fundamental perspective, production has been on an upward trend since mid - May. After the recent price recovery, inventories have decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On August 28, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5624, down 0.60%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5420, down 40 yuan/ton. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Manganese - silicon (SM): The closing price of the main contract was 5842 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 550,243 hands, down 2826 hands; the net holding of the top 20 was - 73,477 hands, down 480 hands; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 108 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 66,783, down 715 [2]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The closing price of the main contract was 5624 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 416,169 hands, down 5671 hands; the net holding of the top 20 was - 36,564 hands, down 1473 hands; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 178 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 19,201, down 125 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia's FeMn68Si18 was 5720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Guizhou's FeMn68Si18 was 5800 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Yunnan's FeMn68Si18 was 5750 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5706 yuan/ton, down 164 yuan; the basis of the main contract was - 122 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia's FeSi75 - B was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Qinghai's FeSi75 - B was 5340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Ningxia's FeSi75 - B was 5420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 204 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Manganese - silicon: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the manganese ore port inventory was 4.446 million tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. - Ferrosilicon: The price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon: The enterprise start - up rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%; the supply was 211,190 tons, up 4130 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 156,000 tons, down 2800 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 125,285 tons, down 97 tons [2]. - Ferrosilicon: The enterprise start - up rate was 36.52%, up 0.34%; the supply was 113,400 tons, up 500 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 62,080 tons, down 3100 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 20,275.9 tons, down 38.06 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03%; the monthly crude steel output was 79.6582 million tons, down 3.5258 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Personal bankruptcy local regulations have been implemented in Xiamen. Natural persons who meet certain conditions can undergo reorganization, reconciliation, or bankruptcy liquidation [2]. - Chinese chip manufacturers are seeking to triple the production of artificial intelligence chips in 2026 to reduce dependence on Nvidia [2]. - China National Petroleum's financial director said the company is closely following the development and regulatory policies of stablecoins and exploring their application in cross - border settlement payments [2]. - China's Commerce Ministry official led a delegation to visit Canada and the United States for economic and trade talks [2].