Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. This week, 4 enterprises' plants are planned to stop, and 4 stopped plants may resume production. Considering short - term malfunctions, production is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - Recently, the procurement of Northeast reserve demand was relatively concentrated, but the procurement volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizers increased month - on - month, and enterprises are gradually scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the short term [3]. - With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing. Due to the continued advancement of reserve demand and the restocking of downstream terminals such as compound fertilizers, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. Considering the advancement of reserve demand and partial export shipping expectations, the short - term urea inventory still has a slight de - stocking trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1700 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 219,302 lots, down 426 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 22,309 lots, down 1429 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts were 7887 lots, down 50 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1710 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, - 10 yuan, and 30 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were 357.5 US dollars/ton and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 7 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.3. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, with no change; the enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons; the urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5,871,270 tons, up 132,600 tons [3]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the operating rate of melamine was 60.8%, down 1.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [3]. 3.5. Industry News - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. As of November 27, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, with no change. The overall port arrival rhythm was slow, and the port inventory may increase after the end of legal inspection. As of November 27, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3]. 3.6. Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent raw materials in Yunnan's rubber - producing areas remain stable, with farmers in the area starting to sell rubber blocks, and the supply is relatively abundant; in Hainan's producing areas, continuous rainfall and decreasing temperature have increased disruptions to rubber - tapping operations, reducing the output of fresh glue, but due to the decline in overseas factory offers, local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a slight decrease in raw material prices [2]. - Currently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port is still accumulating significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories are flexible in production scheduling and cautious in inventory preparation, resulting in a large - scale inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port [2]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance last week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance resumed production, leading to a restorative increase in capacity utilization. This week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to normal, it will drive a restorative increase in overall capacity utilization, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, which will limit the increase in overall capacity utilization [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,100 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 62,962 lots, down 3,978 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 42,278 lots, down 2,933 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 31,480 lots, up 337 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 8,307 lots, up 665 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 41,400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber in the exchange are 52,113 tons, up 1,411 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 510 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,949 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 719 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.23 days, down 0.63 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.66%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.66%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2]. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, with an increase rate of 2.71%. The inventory in the bonded area was 72,400 tons, an increase rate of 0.69%; the inventory in general trade was 409,200 tons, an increase rate of 3.07% [2]. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - In the first week of the future (November 30 - December 6, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber - tapping; in the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, which also had less impact on rubber - tapping [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated with an upward bias. The real - estate market declined slightly, but inventory continued to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar were both weak, but the rebound in the coking coal and coke futures prices supported steel prices, and the macro - economic outlook was positive. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising, but the red bars were shrinking. The reference view was to be bullish on the fluctuations, and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,169.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume of the RB main contract was 1,175,559 lots, up 127,790 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 46,437 lots, up 11,765 lots; the spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE was 65,741 tons, down 4,134 tons; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 153 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou (actual weight), it was 3,415 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,550.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 161.00 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines in Qingdao Port was 798.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) was 2,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore in 45 ports was 152.0607 million tons, up 1.5519 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants was 449,500 tons, up 16,200 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke in sample steel mills was 6.2553 million tons, up 31,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1476 million tons, down 13,400 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills was 2.0608 million tons, down 18,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills was 45.18%, down 0.41 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.4673 million tons, down 65,900 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8475 million tons, down 152,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 68.75%, down 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude - steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.475 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.28 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production. Projects such as Xinfeng Steel (Egypt) and Jiangxi Chongxin New Materials started; projects such as Tianjin Decai Cold - rolling, Jiugang Hongyu New Materials, and Yunnan Yukun Iron and Steel were put into production. On December 1st, leading steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton reduction for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton reduction for dry - quenched coke [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 2nd, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1096.5, up 1.86%. After continuous price drops, coking coal and coke saw a technical rebound, driven by basis convergence and improved macro - expectations. Fundamentally, the mine capacity utilization rate declined this period, the refined coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants increased for 4 consecutive weeks, the total inventory was neutral, and the mid - downstream inventory showed a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term oscillating trend [2]. - On December 2nd, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1629.5, up 2.45%. The first round of coke price cut was implemented. Fundamentally, the demand side had a hot metal output of 234.68 (-1.60) tons this period, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term oscillating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1096.50元/吨，环比上涨3.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1629.50元/吨，环比上涨10.00元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为842409.00手，环比减少9636.00手；J期货合约持仓量为47283.00手，环比减少1696.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 110919.00手，环比减少8149.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为346.00手，环比增加444.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为83.00元/吨，环比减少7.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为135.00元/吨，环比减少15.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为600.00张，无环比变化；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，无环比变化 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，环比上涨26.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1830.00元/吨，环比下降55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为162.00美元/湿吨，无环比变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1510.00元/吨，无环比变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，无环比变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1610.00元/吨，无环比变化；J主力合约基差为200.50元/吨，环比下降65.00元 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1350.00元/吨，无环比变化；JM主力合约基差为513.50元/吨，环比下降3.50元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.60万吨，环比减少1.00万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为305.30万吨，环比增加2.50万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.36%，环比下降0.01%；原煤产量为40675.00万吨，环比减少475.50万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4174.00万吨，环比减少426.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.30万吨，环比减少2.10万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为465.00万吨，环比增加8.10万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为247.20万吨，环比减少6.20万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1010.30万吨，环比减少27.89万吨；全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为801.30万吨，环比减少 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为13.01天，环比增加0.04天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，环比增加0.24天 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 炼焦煤进口量为1059.32万吨，环比减少33.04万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为73.00万吨，环比增加19.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4231.51万吨，环比增加255.59万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.95%，环比增加1.24% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为46.00元/吨，环比增加27.00元 [2]. - 焦炭产量为4189.60万吨，环比减少66.00万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，环比下降1.10%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为87.96%，环比下降0.60% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 粗钢产量为7199.70万吨，环比减少149.31万吨 [2]. - On December 1st, leading steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton reduction for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton reduction for dry - quenched coke [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, remaining below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months, marking the largest contraction in four months [2]. - Jiang Wei, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Vice - President and Secretary - General of the China Iron and Steel Association, stated that the total steel demand has entered a downward phase, and the cost pressure is extremely high. The steel industry in China and Hebei should focus on high - end, green, intelligent and integrated development [2]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Liaoning was released, which mentioned strengthening the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of coal - fired power plants and the replacement of scattered coal, and promoting the peak of coal and oil consumption [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the loose spot supply and general downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly last week. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and maintained a contraction trend. [2] - This week, some plants in East and North China will restart, and the newly followed - up maintenance capacity is scarce. The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, caustic soda is generally expected to be in a situation of high supply. [2] - There is no news of production cuts from alumina enterprises, and the procurement demand is low under the background of low profits; non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. Inventory is expected to remain high, supply will continue to be loose, spot prices will be under pressure, and it is more likely that the spot will decline to close the basis in the future. [2] - SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the high basis and low corresponding profit level may limit the decline space, with the daily range expected to be around 2180 - 2240 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 151,780 lots, an increase of 3,333 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 19,581 lots, a decrease of 1,030 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 244,169 lots, a decrease of 30,998 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2413 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2281 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 247.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 654 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. [2] - From November 22nd to 28th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.60% month - on - month to 86.06%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 91.29%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.02% month - on - month to 65.53%. [2] - As of November 27th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons nationwide was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - From November 21st to 27th, SH2601 fell 1.03% to close at 2212 yuan/ton, and BZ2603 declined and then rebounded, closing at 5454 yuan/ton [2] - Last week, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased month - on - month, and the domestic pure benzene output declined [2] - The operating rates of downstream styrene and caprolactam decreased, while those of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased slightly [2] - The inventory at East China ports continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The profit of petroleum benzene was slightly repaired but remained at a low - valuation level due to weak supply and demand [2] - This week, a domestic disproportionation unit is under maintenance, but the imported resources arriving at ports are increasing. The domestic petroleum benzene supply is expected to increase slightly [2] - In December, the impact of domestic petroleum benzene maintenance is not much different from that in November [2] - The downstream styrene plants are both under commissioning and restarting, and there are also expectations of increased loads for phenol and caprolactam, which may drive a slight increase in pure benzene demand and ease the wide - balance state of spot supply and demand [2] - In terms of cost, geopolitical uncertainties in Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela still exist, and the market expects an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated strongly [2] - In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily range expected to be around 5370 - 5460 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 5454 yuan/ton, and the settlement price decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 5433 yuan/ton [2] - The trading volume of the main contract was 1193 lots, and the open interest was 11245 lots, a decrease of 551 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China were 5320 yuan/ton, 5270 yuan/ton, 5300 yuan/ton, and 5246 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 35 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 19 yuan/ton [2] - The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 5375 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2] - The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 657 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 668.82 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 64.47 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 567.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [2] - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 76.59%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.62 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons [2] - The port inventory of pure benzene was 1.7 tons, and the production cost was 5246.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.6 yuan/ton; the production profit was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene decreased by 1.66 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points [2] - The capacity utilization rates of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 81.16%, 77.19%, and 59.4% respectively, with changes of 2.45 percentage points, 1.51 percentage points, and 3.9 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report At the beginning of the month, the reduction in supply from large - scale farms briefly alleviates the supply pressure. However, to meet the annual sales plan, large - scale farms are expected to resume normal sales, and the supply of large pigs from small - scale farmers will increase, so the supply side still faces pressure. On the demand side, winter is the peak season for pork consumption, with some regional curing and sausage - making activities starting sporadically, and overall demand has improved, leading to an expected increase in the slaughterhouse operation rate. Generally, supply has slightly decreased at the beginning of the month while demand continues to rise. Recently, the spot price of live pigs has adjusted slightly, but the relatively high supply situation is difficult to change in the short term. The supply and demand are in a game phase, and prices will generally face pressure. The main live pig futures contract fluctuates, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the sales rhythm of farmers and curing activities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main live pig futures contract is 11,455 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the position of the main contract is 98,797 lots, down 2,943 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 42,433 lots, down 576 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping, it is 11,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu, it is 12,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The main live pig basis is - 55 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 436.8 million heads, an increase of 12.33 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,331.47 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 912.54, down 0.59. The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, a decrease of 1.717 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,449 yuan/head, down 4 yuan. The breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 248.82 yuan/head, down 14.19 yuan; the breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising is - 147.99 yuan/head, down 12.09 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 70,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.9 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 38.34 million heads, an increase of 2.5 million heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, an increase of 69.04 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News According to Mysteel data, on December 2, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 153,921 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.46% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11th, the economic indicators may continue to decline, with the fundamentals under slight pressure, which supports the bond market. Currently, the liquidity gap is not large. The market has weak expectations for the actual scale of the central bank's bond - buying in the open market in November. Under the weak sentiment of the bond market, it is sensitive to news - related factors. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate weakly, and still awaits the determination of the direction from uncertain factors such as the central bank's treasury bond trading scale in November and the new fund redemption rules [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Futures Price and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main - contract closing prices decreased by 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.02%, and 0.51% respectively; T, TF, TS main - contract volumes decreased by 6895, 353, and 214 respectively, while TL main - contract volume increased by 36154 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2512, T03 - TL03 increased, while some like TF2603 - 2512, TF03 - T03 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T main - contract position increased by 5501, TF and TS main - contract positions decreased by 330 and 224 respectively, and TL main - contract position decreased by 880. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS among the top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2] Bond Market - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250018.IB and 230014.IB increased, while those of 230012.IB and 210005.IB decreased [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 3 - year active bonds increased by 1.00bp, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year decreased by 1.00bp, 0.75bp, and 0.15bp respectively [2] Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 2.93bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 4.00bp, and the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 3.00bp. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 0.50bp, 2.00bp, and 1.20bp respectively [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] Open - Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse - repurchase operations was 1563 billion, the maturity scale was 3021 billion, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day operations, and a net withdrawal of 1458 billion [2] Industry News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private investment and promotes its high - quality development [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission drafts a plan to launch a pilot program for commercial real - estate investment trust funds to promote the high - quality development of the REITs market [2] Key Events to Watch - On December 3rd at 16:30, listen to the speech of ECB President Lagarde; on December 5th at 23:00, pay attention to the US September core PCE price index [3]

步恢复至常规水平，将带动整体产能利用率恢复性提升，但部分企业月初存检修安排，将限制整体产能利 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 用率提升幅度。br2601合约短线预计在10550-10850区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10685 | 375 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 45603 | -3201 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC inventory is accumulating slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased and losses have deepened, while the cost of the ethylene process has decreased and profits have slightly recovered. The PVC production capacity utilization rate is still on an upward trend, and the high - operation state is expected to continue in December. With the drop in temperature, the downstream demand for PVC is expected to decline seasonally. Although overseas demand exists due to the termination of India's BIS and anti - dumping policies for imported PVC, it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. Recently, the PVC market has rebounded due to cost - side benefits and short - covering, but the rebound space is limited under the background of high production and weak demand. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure around 4600 yuan/ton for the V2601 daily K - line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2601) is 4575 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the trading volume is 548,981 lots, down 367,080 lots; the open interest is 1,024,038 lots, down 47,480 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,064,466 lots, down 1,299 lots; the short position is 1,186,643 lots, down 23,163 lots; the net long position is - 122,177 lots, up 21,864 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the spot price of ethylene - based PVC is 4560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4516.92 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the spot price of ethylene - based PVC is 4625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4518.75 yuan/ton, down 4.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 65 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in North China, it is 2740 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2559 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 438 US dollars/ton, down 38 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 498 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 173 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 178 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.22%, up 1.39%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 83.61%, up 2.3%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.38%, down 0.74%. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.79 tons, up 0.12 tons, with 48.13 tons in East China, up 0.08 tons, and 4.66 tons in South China, up 0.04 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.43, down 0.35. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 49,061.39 million square meters, up 3,662.39 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 652,939.03 million square meters, up 4,359.03 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 3898.297 billion yuan, up 311.91 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.89%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.3%, down 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.36%, up 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.36%, up 0.39% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, China's PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, up 1.39% month - on - month. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.42% to 49.61%, with the pipe operating rate down 1.4% to 38.8% and the profile operating rate up 0.21% to 36.09%. As of November 27th, PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% to 1042,800 tons. The average cost of the calcium carbide process nationwide increased to 5131 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 881 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5187 yuan/ton, and the profit increased to - 465 yuan/ton [2].