苯乙烯产业日报 2025-08-06 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 。国内供需矛盾缓解，但库存去化难度仍较大。成本方面，近期由于OPEC+增产影响持续、美国7月非农数 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 据不及预期，国际油价大幅回落；华东纯苯市场价波幅预计不大。技术上，EB2509关注7180附近支撑与74 免责声明 40附近压力。 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7285 | 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 3 手) | 190047 | 33369 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 309216 | -6946 10月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7314 | 6 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - For corn: Internationally, the high output prospects of US corn due to good crop conditions and favorable weather continue to put pressure on international corn prices. Domestically, the increasing pressure of policy - grain release, cooling auction results, high cost pressure on downstream enterprises, and weak procurement lead to a narrow and weak downward trend in purchase prices. The corn futures market also shows a weak trend [2]. - For corn starch: The supply - demand imbalance is obvious. With the recovery of the industry's operating rate and weak downstream demand, the inventory has increased, and the market is in a weak state, suggesting a bearish view [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2259 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 722961 hands, down 45514 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 16995 hands, up 18990 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 146425 hands, down 5515 hands [2]. - Corn starch: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2662 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 147032 hands, down 6501 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 9427 hands, up 53 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 hands, up 3000 hands [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 403 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 401.5 cents/bushel, down 5.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1575283 contracts, up 81613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2395.1 yuan/ton, down 2.94 yuan/ton; the average price at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.76 yuan/ton, up 1.43 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 56 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2437.44 yuan/ton, down 0.17 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 140 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The predicted annual yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Sown area: The predicted annual sown areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Inventory: The inventories at southern and northern ports are 88.9 million tons, up 62000 tons, and 291 million tons, down 13000 tons respectively; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 379.7 million tons, down 20.8 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 132 million tons, up 2.7 million tons [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the weekly inventory days of sample feed corn is 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 121 yuan/ton, - 58 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 7 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 41.8%, up 3.17%, and 53.83%, up 2.07% respectively [2]. Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 8.89%, up 0.26%, and 7.44%, down 0.07% respectively [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn are 12.93% and 12.92% respectively, both up 2.78% [2]. Industry News - As of August 2, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season is 75.2%, compared with 66.1% a week ago, 91.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 77.5% [2]. - The price of Brazilian corn has received "some support" recently due to the delayed harvest in some areas, but it still faces downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term as the harvest progresses and the total output is expected to be close to 200 million tons [2]. - As of August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation of 72%, and the weather is favorable for corn growth in the Midwest [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, countering involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. The apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the steel market is in the off - season with falling demand, but positive macro - expectations and rising coal and coke prices provide cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a low - level rebound. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position was 1,652,569 lots, down 56,263 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 93,170 lots, up 89 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 89,256 tons, up 893 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 217 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,477 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 156 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, down 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; the sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the steel net export volume was 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the commercial housing inventory was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] Industry News - The new "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects government bonds to support an increase in new social financing in July, with the substitution effect potentially causing the new loan scale to turn negative, but the growth rate remains high. In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% daily decline; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% daily decline; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% daily increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are under pressure due to the good production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries, strong production signs in Brazil, and falling oil prices, resulting in a weak downward adjustment of raw sugar prices. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. The demand side has备货 demand in the food and beverage industry due to hot summer weather, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks is picking up. The inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. Overall, the weak trend of the outer market drags down the domestic sugar futures price, and with the continuous opening of the import profit window and strengthened import expectations, the short - term trend is mainly weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 172,520 lots, a decrease of 12,539 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 18,802, a decrease of 458; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,036 lots, a decrease of 6371 lots. The estimated import and processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4433 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4508 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5630 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; in Nanning is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou is 6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 335.9 million tons, an increase of 110.24 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 1373 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.64%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.64%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.36%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.88%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July in Guangxi, the single - month sugar sales volume was 355,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales volume in Guangxi was 5.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons; the sales rate was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. On Tuesday, the October ICE raw sugar contract closed down 0.98%. On Wednesday, the sugar 2509 contract closed down 0.42% [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Wednesday saw most prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures rise, with the main contract EC2510 up 0.64% and far - month contracts up 1 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, down 0.8% month - on - month, and the spot index continued to fall. A series of tariff measures have increased global trade uncertainty and the expectation of trade conflict escalation. Despite the resilience of the US consumer end, there is an upward risk of inflation and potential impact on future retail data. China's counter - measures have intensified Sino - European trade tensions. Against this backdrop, the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly, but the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price up in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1420.100, up 9.0; EC second - main contract closing price: 1751.4, up 69.3. EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 53.80 (down); EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 331.30; EC2510 - EC2602 spread (another value): - 89.20, down 9.80. EC contract basis: 877.76, down 7.10. EC main contract open interest: 54361, up 2253 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 2297.86, down 18.7; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1130.42, down 153.39. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1550.74, down 41.85; container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1789.50, up 2.26. Baltic Dry Index (daily): up 49.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1921.00; Panama Freight Index (daily, another value): 1625.00, up 8.00. Average charter price (Panamax): 12308.00, up 123.00; average charter price (Capesize): 23286.00, down 1309.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - Seven Chinese departments jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027. US President Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts, may announce a new Fed chair soon, will "significantly" raise tariffs on India in 24 hours and announce drug and chip tariffs within a week, with drug tariffs potentially up to 250%. The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates if economic growth and inflation develop as expected [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - August 7, 00:00: China's July export year - on - year rate in US dollars; China's July import year - on - year rate in US dollars. August 7, 14:00: Germany's June seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate. August 7, 14:45: France's June trade balance (in billion euros). August 7, 19:00: UK's central bank interest - rate decision as of August 7. August 7, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (in 10,000 people). August 7, 22:00: US June wholesale sales monthly rate [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing recently, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, with the overall inbound rate declining month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire companies to replenish at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month. [2] - In terms of demand, the overall production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly last week due to maintenance in some enterprises, and the overall production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires also declined. This week, the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises will boost the production capacity utilization rate, but due to new maintenance arrangements in some enterprises, the overall production capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, with limited room for improvement. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,600 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,495 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,175 yuan/ton, up 930 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 105,295 lots, up 35,859 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 28,101 lots, down 3,264 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,155 lots, up 1,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,110 lots, up 209 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 176,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,034 tons, up 303 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,270 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 995 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,140 yuan/ton, down 875 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,596 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 276 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.64 days, down 0.91 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.36%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.2%, down 0.03 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.74%, down 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.74%, down 0.39 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From August 3rd to August 9th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, most areas had low precipitation, reducing the impact on rubber tapping; in the southern hemisphere, the rainfall in most areas was moderate, increasing the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of August 3rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, down 0.86 million tons, a decrease of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47%. [2] - As of July 31st, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, down 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and 10.19 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, down 2.97 percentage points month - on - month and 0.20 percentage points year - on - year. [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025-08-06 [2] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi (F03139610, Z0021558), Assistant Analyst: Xu Tianze (F03133092) [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - V2509 rose 1.18% to close at 5051 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased 0.05% to 76.84% week-on-week. The downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The new capacity will gradually increase the supply in August. The restart of devices this week will likely increase the capacity utilization rate. The domestic downstream demand is weak, and the rainy season hinders overseas demand. The cost of calcium carbide has price support, and the ethylene price is expected to remain stable. The V2509 rebound is limited due to the limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 5120 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Closing price of PVC futures: 5051 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; trading volume: 876,411 lots, down 21,950 lots; open interest: 674,125 lots, down 37,521 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 17,781 lots to - 10,891 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4901.15 yuan/ton, up 26.15 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5035 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4918.12 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2598.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2378 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.84%, up 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 76.03%, down 3.22 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 78.99%, up 8.72 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 448,000 tons, up 21,000 tons. The inventory in East China was 394,800 tons, up 16,600 tons; in South China, it was 53,200 tons, up 4400 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.3332143 billion square meters, up 83.0189 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 2447.55 billion yuan, up 532.069 billion yuan [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.69%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.83%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 17.26%, up 0.32 and 0.33 percentage points respectively [3]. 7. Industry News - On August 6, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 4900 - 4980 yuan/ton. From July 26 to August 1, the PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, up 0.05% week - on - week. As of July 31, the PVC social inventory increased 5.67% to 722,100 tons week - on - week and decreased 24.10% year - on - year [3].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-06 接受程度限制，大概率呈现震荡走势。今日多晶硅受到焦煤价格上行继续上行，但是整体冲高回落，预计 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 51345 | 1015 多晶硅11-12价差 | -3135 | -145 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 138396 | 10809 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 41880 | 1520 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 47000 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -3330 | -1610 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅( ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12935 | -25 08-09月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -26947 | -187 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 84046 | -1903 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 102803 | -62 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13600 | 100 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9500 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 285 | 75 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.26 | -0.13 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 17215.27 | -472.3 进口数量:镍铁(月,万吨) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has loosened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of cis - butadiene rubber have both risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. With short - term shutdown and maintenance expected for some plants and a possible restart of others, supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, due to weak demand expectations, production enterprise inventories may still increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, with limited upward space. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2509 contract is expected to be between 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 28,087, a decrease of 2,345. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 现货市场 - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 820 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.12 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 67.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.63 US dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 65.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons. The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, a decrease of 1.5 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%. From January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2].