1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 31, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,946, down 4.44%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,820, down 80 yuan/ton. With no obvious incremental policy expectations and the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. The manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the inventory is moderately high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 210,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output is at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is 100 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price has rebounded this month. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 31, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,696, down 6.62%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,710, down 12 yuan/ton. After several macro - events, the market sentiment weakened. The operating rate is at a low level, the Ningxia semi - coke price on the cost side has dropped, and the steel demand expectation is still weak. The ferroalloy production profit is negative, with the Inner Mongolia spot profit at 230 yuan/ton and the Ningxia spot profit at 430 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,946元/吨，环比下降170元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,696元/吨，环比下降312元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为603,752手，环比下降47,460手；SF期货合约持仓量为406,294手，环比下降32,084手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 96,908手，环比增加23,496手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 40,380手，环比增加7,426手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为82元/吨，环比下降10元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为146元/吨，环比增加14元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,527张，环比下降209张；SF仓单为22,051张，环比增加48张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,820元/吨，环比下降80元；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,760元/吨，环比下降110元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,850元/吨，环比下降100元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,580元/吨，环比下降130元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900元/吨，环比下降50元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710元/吨，环比下降120元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,688元/吨，环比增加78元；SF主力合约基差为14元/吨，环比增加192元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 126元/吨，环比增加90元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为37元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,050元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.5万吨，环比增加21万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比增加1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比增加0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480吨，环比增加3,640吨；硅铁供应为102,300吨，环比增加2,300吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000吨，环比下降11,300吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123,670吨，环比增加289吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20,065.7吨，环比增加52吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，环比无变化；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8,318.4万吨，环比下降336.1万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定10月召开二十届四中全会，强调做好下半年经济工作的相关政策 [2]. - 美国将对韩国征收15%关税，对巴西加征40%关税使总关税额达50%，对印度商品征收25%关税 [2]. - 国际能源署称全球电力需求将强劲增长，2025年预计增长3.3%，2026年增长3.7% [2]. - 加拿大央行连续第三次维持关键政策利率在2.75%不变，全球贸易战严重升级风险减弱 [2]. - 美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%不变，这是连续第五次维持利率不变 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The tin market is currently in a situation where both bulls and bears are weak. The spot procurement atmosphere remains cold, but holders have a strong willingness to hold prices, resulting in a relatively high spot premium of 700 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories have increased significantly, while LME inventories are stable, the cancelled warrants have rebounded slightly, and the spot premium has decreased. Technically, the position has declined, and the bullish sentiment has faded. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 265,290 yuan/ton, down 2,580 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,410 US dollars/ton, down 210 US dollars. The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is - 300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 27,818 lots, down 765 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,199 lots, down 438 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,945 tons, up 90 tons; SHFE tin inventory is 7,417 tons, up 269 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 580 tons, up 75 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SHFE tin warehouse receipt is 7,429 tons, down 4 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,500 yuan/ton, down 2,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 265,110 yuan/ton, down 2,960 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 560 yuan/ton, down 1,480 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 7.01 US dollars/ton, down 17.51 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 259,100 yuan/ton, up 5,600 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 263,100 yuan/ton, up 5,600 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 172,210 yuan/ton, down 2,140 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1407 million tons, down 0.0339 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, analyzing and studying the current economic situation and deploying the economic work for the second half of the year. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support a rate cut, pointing out that economic growth has slowed. The actual tin ore output from Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low [3] 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - There is no news today [3]

生猪产业日报 2025-07-31 际支撑作用更加明显。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14075 | 0 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 45199 | -7850 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 0 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -21650 | 4258 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14000 | 200 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/ ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2405 | -14 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -88 | 3 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 564414 | -14931 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -95446 | -7265 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8716 | -118 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2395 | -5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2060 | 2.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 335 | -7.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -10 | 9 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 275 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 333 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 246 | 7 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -58 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - Although the supply of new cotton is tight before it comes onto the market, the downstream demand remains weak, the weather-related factors have subsided, and the market has expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract closed lower and is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short on rallies and control risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 13,650 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 19,770 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -26,047 lots, down 3,301 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -36 lots, up 141 lots - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 349,549 lots, down 26,389 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 4,525 lots, down 859 lots - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,940 sheets, down 115 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B was 15,325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton combed 32-count yarn was 20,680 yuan/ton, unchanged - The China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM with 1% tariff was 13,581 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM with sliding duty was 14,337 yuan/ton - The arrival price of imported pure cotton combed 32-count yarn was 24,047 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure cotton carded 32-count yarn was 22,082 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons - The cotton-yarn price difference was 5,355 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - The daily profit of imported cotton was 1,110 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, down 0.6289 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days were 35.46 days, up 2.57 days - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, up 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for cotton was 12.44%, down 0.95%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for cotton was 12.44%, down 0.95% - The 20-day historical volatility of cotton was 10.55%, up 0.92%; the 60-day historical volatility of cotton was 9.15%, up 0.44% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, 2024, 24:00, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises was 30,127,638 bales, totaling 6.803087 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.79%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.432548 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.22% [2] International Situation - The December ICE cotton contract closed down 0.24% on Wednesday. Affected by the decline in the grain market, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the extension of Sino-US tariff measures, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline. The Sino-US talks in Stockholm ended, and the relevant Chinese officials said that according to the consensus of the new round of Sino-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to extend the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. The tariffs of the two countries have not changed, and no final trade agreement has been reached [2] Domestic Situation - Cotton is in a de-stocking state, and there is no news about quotas. The supply is tight before the new cotton is listed. On the demand side, the textile industry is in the off-season, and inland textile enterprises have no profit. The overall operating rate continues to decline, and due to the recent rise in raw material prices, enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials. In terms of new crops, the overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025. The temperature in Xinjiang decreased later this week, and the weather-related factors cooled down [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand remains largely unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,735 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,992 US dollars/ton, down 28 US dollars [3]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position of Shanghai lead was 105,944 lots, an increase of 6,528 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 567 lots, a decrease of 243 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,254 tons, an increase of 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 36.37 US dollars/ton, down 4.57 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, a decrease of 3.7 kilotons [3]. - The lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, an increase of 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was - 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons [3]. - The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 815.37 yuan/ton; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 50 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 1,9925 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,726.56 points, down 33.34 points; the automobile output was 280.86 tons, an increase of 16.66 tons; the new energy vehicle output was 164.7 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two members voting against and advocating a rate cut. Powell was hawkish, and market bets on a full - year rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP [3]. - **Tariffs**: Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods, and announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products from August 1 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the high-quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Domestically, the high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. The future decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal reduction substitution also reduce demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand is offset by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market fluctuates greatly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, high - frequency data shows that palm oil production increases while exports decline, which restricts palm oil prices. However, increased exports from Indonesia, low inventory, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure in rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. But the reduction in the oil - mill operating rate and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply - side pressure. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9510 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 696.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.9 Canadian dollars [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 61 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread is 288 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 194,637 lots, down 20,837 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 442,990 lots, down 3,790 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The top 20 net long positions of rapeseed oil are 16,891 lots, down 7,830 lots; the top 20 net long positions of rapeseed meal are 29,067 lots, down 6,136 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,487 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 1,200 sheets, an increase of 1,200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of rapeseed is 4,942.03 yuan/ton, down 33.88 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: The oil - meal ratio is 3.61, down 0.08 [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 89 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual global rapeseed production is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons [2]. - Mill inventories: The total weekly rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Regional inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.55 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 56.27 tons, down 2.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 33.41 tons, down 1.72 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.55 tons, down 0.05 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 26.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.27 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 tons, an increase of 1.11 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly feed production is 2,762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, an increase of 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.6%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.61%, up 0.5 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 18.97%, up 0.72 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.27%, up 0.21 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.66%, up 0.75 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.41%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 30, ICE rapeseed futures fell due to the weakening of CBOT soybean oil futures and good weather in western Canada. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 5.70 Canadian dollars at 696.60 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January rapeseed futures closed down 5.00 Canadian dollars at 707.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year [2].

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/7/31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 68,280.00 | -2320.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -180,083.00 | -4961.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 229,368.00 | -43385.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -600.00 | -280.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 13,131.00 | +855.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 72,000.00 | -950.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 69,900.00 | -950.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 3,720.00 | +1370.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 810.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝 ...

多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 49130 | -5575 8-9月多晶硅价差 | -120 | -45 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 126989 | -37501 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 40370 | -5050 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -8205 | -3900 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8760 | -525 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -1219 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowing trend. Short - term investment should be on hold, and a high - short strategy is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan; the main contract position is 212,932 lots, down 29,745 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 66,694 lots, up 7,394 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 49,846 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, up 40 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Starting from the trading time on August 1, 2025, the trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. Non - futures company members or customers are limited to a maximum of 500 lots of daily opening positions on the industrial silicon futures SI2509 contract, and 2,000 lots on the SI2510, SI2511, SI2512, and SI2601 contracts [2]. - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1, with a 50% tariff on imported copper. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. In the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain their current production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan are actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side may see a potential increase in overall output due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen due to a monomer plant fire, supporting industrial silicon; in the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, and downstream demand has declined significantly; in the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, and demand is difficult to boost [2].