Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight de - stocking. The arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected, but the overall de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrows. The demand side is relatively stable, with the production enthusiasm of semi - steel tire enterprises expected to remain high, and the production of all - steel tire enterprises expected to be stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is not given a specific short - term forecast range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143704 lots, down 1486 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 51038 lots, down 8525 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25314 lots, down 525 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10527 lots, down 57 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 123310 tons, down 710 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43849 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 630 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13228 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 688 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.89 Thai baht/kg, up 1.02 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.4 Thai baht/kg, up 1.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.09%, down 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.08%, down 0.82 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an enhanced impact on rubber tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the inventory in general trade was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current new cotton is in the listing stage, with upside pressure from corresponding hedging. It is expected that the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited. The downstream textile enterprises' demand is relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment has not improved significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the trade situation on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 112,802 lots, down 5,250 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 585,287 lots, down 5,622 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 2,488 lots, down 15 lots. Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 133 lots, down 117 lots; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 24,189 lots, up 139 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 6 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,056 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty): 14,010 yuan/ton; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,186 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,535 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,667 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons; cotton import volume: 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130,000 tons, unchanged; imported cotton profit: 793 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton: 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 25.24 days, up 0.39 days; grey fabric inventory days: 31.43 days, up 0.31 days; cloth output: 2.811 billion meters, up 0.11 billion meters; yarn output: 2.0738 million tons, up 45,900 tons; monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 12453247 thousand US dollars, down 1692657 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 11966516 thousand US dollars, down 426686 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option of cotton: 6.58%, down 1.15%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option of cotton: 6.58%, down 1.16%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.2%, down 0.49%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - About 62% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought as of the week ending October 21, unchanged from 61% in the previous week. In the domestic market, Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage, with the progress exceeding 50%, faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and the processing cost of ginning factories increased slightly. Due to continuous rainfall, the purchase progress of inland cotton was slow [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market's surplus pattern is difficult to change. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a focus on the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract is 122,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton. The spread between the November - December contracts is - 340 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,325 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The position volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 108,989 lots, a decrease of 12,453 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,683 lots, an increase of 474 lots. LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel is 36,075 tons (weekly), an increase of 1,656 tons. The total LME nickel cancelled warrants are 6,432 tons, an increase of 180 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 29,780 tons, an increase of 2,970 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main NI contract is 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 194.12 US dollars/ton, down 3.56 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 tons, a decrease of 23.22 tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,497.91 tons (weekly), a decrease of 30.93 tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.03 million metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 108.53 tons, an increase of 21.12 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 tons, an increase of 2.48 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 57.67 tons, a decrease of 0.69 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached basic agreements on important economic and trade issues [3] - The US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year, but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3]

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/10/27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1263.50 | +15.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1779.50 | +22.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 927240.00 | +2232.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 50013.00 | +241.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -64871.00 | -5917.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4476.00 | -484.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 62.50 | -1.50↓ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 130.50 | +1.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 100.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1246 | 环比 数据指标 17 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1095 | 环比 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 151 | 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1387064 | -20813 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1807146 | 85524 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -250194 | 7848 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -314971 | -34188 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 8745 | -1189 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 447 | -8 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -49 | 16 | | | 玻璃基差 | -51 | -11 1月-5月玻璃合约 | -151 | -7 | | | 1月-5月纯碱合约 | -91 | -1 | | | | 现货市场 | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1180 | 10 华中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting prices. Coupled with the drop in temperature, which is conducive to the storage and transportation of eggs, the shipping speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of spot prices. Driven by the rise in spot prices, the near - month contracts have also strengthened significantly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still high, and old hens have not been over - culled. High production capacity is still the main concern of the market, which may limit the upside space. The recent futures prices have also risen, but the high - production capacity pressure still exists, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3134 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 48; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23326 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1261; the monthly spread between contracts 1 - 5 is - 118 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 24; the futures open interest of the active contract is 240449 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 6219; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 20 lots, with no week - on - week change [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 2.98 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03; the basis (spot - futures) is - 159 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 0.86; the national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 31.02; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.65 yuan/chick, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the national new - born chick index is 76.65 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 3.3; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.45 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 8.58 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06; the national culling age of hens is 507 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.96 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.49 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.58 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, with no week - on - week change; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.04 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13215.79 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94.76 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7498 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 118 [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.82 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.79 yuan/kg, up 0.17 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.73 yuan/kg, up 0.33 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. Egg prices are at a low level, the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting prices, and the shipping speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of spot prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is expected to increase slightly due to smelter overhauls, and the recovery of recycled lead production is limited by factors such as low raw - material inventory and transportation controls. Short - term lead ingot spot will remain tight. It is recommended to short at high prices. - On the demand side, after the holidays, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the traditional consumption season has boosted demand. However, since September, the increasing Shanghai - London ratio and tariff - affected exports of lead - acid batteries have curbed demand growth. - Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change. If the inventory depletion rate slows down, it will resist price increases. Overall, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,520 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,016.5 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. - The 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 129,190 lots, up 6,702 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 641 lots, up 2,153 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 23,048 tons, unchanged. - The SHFE inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 235,375 tons, down 4,375 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 270 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead spread (0 - 3) is - 36.64 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,170 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. 上游情况 - The average operating rate of primary lead is 81.64%, down 1.92 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.91 tons, up 0.18 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 2.5 kilotons, up 3.1 kilotons. - The global lead ore output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate is 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average price of waste batteries is 10,016.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 19,475 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,042.83 points, up 30.01 points; the monthly automobile output is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. 行业消息 - Multiple political events are reported, including the US dispatching a carrier strike group, Trump - related events, and California governor's election plans. Also, the US may not release inflation data next month [2].

工业硅产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8965 | 45 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 201518 | 15179 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -48291 | -4603 广期所仓单(日,手) | 48185 | -142 | | | 12月合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | -375 | 5 11-12月合约工业硅 | -375 | 5 | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9350 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9650 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 385 | -45 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11275 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 2030 | 0 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall start - up of the olefin industry declined last week. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease in the short term. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2320 in the short term. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased last week, while the port inventory increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the port inventory may still rise [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2268 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1102546 lots, an increase of 21596 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 189610 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 13922, a decrease of 170 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2012.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - West price difference was 217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 53 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 260 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 269 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 64 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.05 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.7 tons, an increase of 3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 48.52 tons, a decrease of 0.92 tons. The import profit of methanol was 2.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.45 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 360400 tons, an increase of 500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.08%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.31%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.04 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 21.57 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.22 tons, an increase of 2.08 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 3 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 0.92 tons. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The overall production of methanol decreased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts was more than the output of restored production capacity. The overall pressure on the supply side was not large [3] Viewpoint Summary - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 91.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%. The load of individual enterprises in the Northwest and East China decreased. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports was still below expectations, and the提货 of mainstream social warehouses decreased significantly. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the inventory at ports may still rise. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the short - term start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - On October 27, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5802, up 0.24%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. The inventory is rising rapidly, the production is slightly falling from a high level, and the inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The profit is negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The mainstream steel bid price is 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 27, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5564, up 0.36%. Trump arrived in Malaysia for the ASEAN Summit. Manufacturers' production is normal, delivering previous orders, with a neutral inventory level. Lanthanum coke is stable, providing short - term cost support. The profit is negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The September Hebei Steel 75B ferrosilicon tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese Silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5802 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the position was 529,868 hands, down 13,590 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 59,965 hands, down 7,212 hands; the 5 - 1 month contract spread was 40 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the warehouse receipt was 44,027 sheets, down 849 sheets; the basis of the SM main contract was - 222 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - **Ferrosilicon (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5564 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the position was 345,316 hands, down 14,113 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 26,906 hands, down 1,160 hands; the 5 - 1 month contract spread was 68 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the warehouse receipt was 10,715 sheets, down 448 sheets; the basis of the SF main contract was - 304 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese Silicon**: The prices of Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 remained unchanged at 5580 yuan/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 5600 yuan/ton respectively. The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5641 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The prices of Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton, 5160 yuan/ton, and 5260 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese - related**: The price of South African Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the port inventory of manganese ore was 436.40 million tons, down 9.30 million tons; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Silicon - related**: The price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 810 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The weekly start - up rate was 43.04%, down 0.24%; the weekly supply was 207,410 tons, down 1400 tons; the semi - monthly manufacturer's inventory was 293,000 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly national steel mill inventory was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; the weekly demand of the five major steel types was 122,683 tons, up 1570 tons [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly start - up rate was 35.56%, up 0.08%; the weekly supply was 114,100 tons, up 1300 tons; the semi - monthly manufacturer's inventory was 66,560 tons, down 2520 tons; the monthly national steel mill inventory was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days; the weekly demand of the five major steel types was 19,935.90 tons, up 363.38 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly start - up rate of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the weekly capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 89.92%, down 0.39%; the monthly crude steel output was 73.4901 million tons, down 3.8784 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", with strict restrictions on steel capacity addition and transfer in key areas, and a capacity replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 [2]. - The US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year, a new high since January 2025; it increased by 0.3% month - on - month. After the data release, traders increased their bets on two more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year [2]. - Hangzhou's housing authorities will launch a "home purchase + consumer voucher" limited - time subsidy activity in some areas, with a 100,000 - yuan consumer voucher for each eligible home purchase [2]. - On October 25, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway completed its autumn maintenance, laying a foundation for coal supply this winter and next spring [2].