瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.01」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给收减需求渐暖，锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡下行，周线涨跌幅为-14.41%，振幅14.51%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价68920元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月召开二十届四中全会，研究关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议强调，做好下半年经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性。要 落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求等。碳酸锂基本面原料端，海 外矿商挺价情绪仍偏强，锂矿报价坚挺。供给方面，因前期矿价的提升一定程度上增加冶炼厂成本，加之国内产业政 策的引导，国内碳酸锂产量及产能或将有所收敛。需求方面，下游目前多持观望态度，对于锂价的变化较为敏感，后 续随着淡季向旺季的过 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper market has a weak current demand but an improving outlook. The fundamentals suggest a stage of gradually decreasing supply growth and temporarily weak demand, with positive expectations [4]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to tight copper ore supply, and the supply of refined copper in China may slow down. On the demand side, it is expected to gradually improve from the off - season to the peak season, with external demand weakening and internal demand being weak in the short - term and gradually improving in the long - term [4]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Copper main contract had a weekly line that was oscillating weakly, with a weekly increase/decrease of - 1.07% and an amplitude of 1.7%. The closing price of the main contract as of this week was 78,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and disposable income remained flat in June after declining in May [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The TC fee for copper concentrates is still in the negative range, and domestic port inventories are continuously decreasing. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down due to policy guidance on the non - ferrous industry's production capacity and tight raw material supply. The downstream copper processing is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve in the future. In August, the US exempted copper raw materials from tariffs, but still imposed high tariffs on copper products, so external demand is expected to weaken [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai Copper main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from the previous week. The main contract price was 78,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 13,159 lots from the previous week [9]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 1, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: As of August 1, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Copper was 3,657 lots, a decrease of 3,030 lots from the previous week [21]. - **Option Volatility**: As of August 1, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai Copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai Copper option open interest was 0.8671, an increase of 0.2260 from the previous week [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3497 million tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons from May, a decline of 1.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper price difference (including tax) was 936.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340.74 yuan/ton from the previous week [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of May 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 2,006 thousand tons, an increase of 97 thousand tons from April, an increase of 5.08%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.2%, an increase of 1.1% from April. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 421,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week [39]. 3.3.2. Supply - side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.43%. As of May 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, an increase of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [42]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 337,042.568 tons, an increase of 44,348.26 tons from May, an increase of 15.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.23%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 774.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 500.58 yuan/ton from the previous week [49][50]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 10,800 tons from the previous week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 7,096 tons from the previous week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,216 tons from the previous week. The total social inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58]. - **Power and Appliance**: As of June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction and power source construction increased by 14.6% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 466.5756 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611 thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [69]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of May 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of May 2025 was 84,200 tons [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be at a stage where supply remains high but growth slows, and demand is weak due to the off - season, with slightly accumulated inventory, and the long - term outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization [6]. - Suggest light - position oscillating trading for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum and light - position short - selling trading for the main contract of Alumina when prices are high, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 1.2%, closing at 20,510 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated downward, with a weekly change of - 7.76%, closing at 3,162 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina is expected to have a slowdown in supply growth and stable demand. Electrolytic aluminum supply will remain high but with a slowdown in growth, and demand will be weak due to the off - season [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position oscillating trading for Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and light - position short - selling trading for Alumina's main contract when prices are high, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from July 25. Alumina's futures price was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 213 yuan/ton (- 6.18%). Cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 19,920 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton (- 1.07%) [11][14]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's position was 577,815 lots, down 77,532 lots (- 11.83%) from July 25. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 8,454 lots [18]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,810 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton from July 25. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,890 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.62%); in Shanxi, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%); in Guiyang, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%). The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton (- 0.99%). The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,490 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton (- 1.49%), with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][29][32]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 461,025 tons, up 12,925 tons (2.88%); as of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons (1.5%); domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 487,000 tons, up 25,000 tons (5.41%). As of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 48,658 tons, down 6,017 tons (- 11.01%); LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 447,000 tons, up 14,050 tons (3.25%) [36]. - **Bauxite**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.4 million tons, up 580,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of this week's latest data, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,650 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,200 tons, down 77.37% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.159 million tons, up 0.05% month - on - month and 1.75% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.207 million tons, up 0.01% month - on - month and 0.58% year - on - year; the operating rate was 97.68%, up 0.03% from last month and down 1.12% from the same period last year [55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import of aluminum products was 300,000 tons, up 24.1% year - on - year; the export was 490,000 tons, down 19.8% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 1.98 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 2.92 million tons, down 8% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy was 618,900 tons, up 0.48 month - on - month and 5.49% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, down 0.87% month - on - month and up 19.22% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 9.097 million tons. In June 2025, the import of aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, down 12.26% year - on - year; the export was 25,800 tons, up 23.79% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 542,200 tons, down 11.53% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 120,300 tons, up 3.06% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment was up 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482 units, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105 units, up 11.43% year - on - year [71]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight oscillating decline of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices declined collectively this week, and the four stock index futures also weakened. Large-cap blue-chip stocks were weaker than small and mid-cap stocks. The market trading activity declined slightly compared to last week, and the total trading volume of northbound funds has been above 900 billion yuan for four consecutive weeks. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, which has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also declined from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. In terms of trade, China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. In terms of policy, the Politburo meeting in July did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. Overall, the third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of the three PMI indices in July indicated that the economic recovery still faced certain challenges. After the Politburo meeting, due to the full reaction of the market to the meeting expectations, in the absence of more-than-expected policies, the market bulls may take profit actions, and the stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][98] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 had a weekly decline of 2.10%, IH2509 declined 1.52%, IC2509 dropped 1.80%, and IM2509 fell 0.95%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index declined 1.75%, the Shanghai 50 Index dropped 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.37%, and the CSI 1000 Index declined 0.54%. [9] 3.2 News Overview - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. - From July 28th to 29th, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days. - The Politburo meeting pointed out that macro policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high-level opening up, and resolve local government debt risks. - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a decrease of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [12][13][14] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.58%, the STAR 50 Index declined 1.65%, the SME 100 Index dropped 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.74%. - Overseas Main Indices: The S&P 500 declined 0.77%, the FTSE 100 rose 0.14%, the Hang Seng Index declined 3.47%, and the Nikkei 225 declined 1.58%. - Industry Sector Performance: Industry sectors generally declined, with coal and non-ferrous metals sectors weakening significantly, while pharmaceutical and biological, communication and other sectors rising against the trend. - Industry Sector Main Fund Flow: Industry main funds generally showed a net outflow, with large net outflows in the computer and non-ferrous metals sectors, and small net inflows in the banking and transportation sectors. - SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rate: The SHIBOR short-term interest rate declined, and the capital price was low. - Restricted Share Lifting and Northbound Capital: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.52 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 88.748 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 955.947 billion yuan. - Futures Basis: The basis of the IF, IH, and IC main contracts fluctuated weakly, while the basis of the IM main contract fluctuated. [17][18][22][26][30][33][41][44][50][54] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [98]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of 3.09%. The initial estimate of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%. As of July 23, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early-maturing varieties increased slightly year-on-year, which supported the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large number of summer cooling fruits on the market impacted the demand for apples, and the possible increase in the output of new-season apples might restrict the price increase. The upper limit to watch is 8140 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold the long orders of Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose first and then fell this week, with a weekly decline of 3.09% [5][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons from last week. The inventory in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, but the destocking speed was different. The current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price. However, the large number of summer fruits on the market and the possible increase in new - season output may restrict the price increase [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold the long orders of Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high positions [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop output [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 288 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 1, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin, and the price of bagged Fuji apples above 75 in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of July 30, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons from last week. The destocking speed slowed down slightly. The destocking speed in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu was still slow, and the inventory was low [24]. - **Demand Side**: - As of July 31, the average daily arrival of trucks in the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.6 yuan/jin [28]. - As of July 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%, and the wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% [33]. - As of July 25, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.13 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [37]. - In June 2023, the export volume of fresh apples in China was 4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week was presented in a chart, but no specific data was given [41]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable was presented, but no specific analysis was given [43].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.01」 国债期货周报 期债震荡上涨，把握修复机会 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管： 1、国家发改委部署下半年九方面工作，强调要以稳就业扩内需为重点做好政策预研储备。加大力度稳投资促消费。纵深 推进全国统一大市场建设，破除"内卷式"竞争。；2、中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特 及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措 施如期展期90天；3、国家育儿补贴制度实施方案正式公布，从2025年1月1日起，每孩每年发放育儿补贴3600元，至其年满3周岁。对符 合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿，无论一孩、二孩、三孩，均可申领育儿补贴。 基本面：1、国内:1） 7月官方制造业PMI为49.3，环比下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；7月官方非制造业PMI为50.1，环比 下降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - A-share major indices collectively declined significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,600 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased notably. Most industry sectors dropped, with the steel, non-ferrous metals, and real estate sectors weakening substantially. [3] - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also decreased from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment negatively affected market sentiment. [3] - China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. [3] - The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of China's three major PMI indices in July indicated that economic recovery still faced challenges. After the Politburo meeting, without unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub-main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped to 4,057.0, down 73.2; the IH main contract (2509) fell to 2,777.0, down 40.6; the IC main contract (2509) decreased to 6,124.0, down 85.8; the IM main contract (2509) dropped to 6,538.0, down 58.2. [2] - There were changes in the spreads between different contracts. For instance, the IF - IH current month contract spread decreased to 1,293.0, down 32.6; the IC - IF current month contract spread dropped to 2,117.0, down 7.2. [2] Futures Position Holdings - The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 401.0 to -24,341.00, while those in IH decreased by 729.0 to -15,476.00, IC decreased by 1,765.0 to -12,414.00, and IM decreased by 56.0 to -37,444.00. [2] Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The basis of the IF main contract decreased to -18.6, down 3.8; the basis of the IH main contract increased to 1.0, up 0.4; the basis of the IC main contract decreased to -102.3, down 3.1; the basis of the IM main contract decreased to -123.2, down 8.9. [2] Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume reached 19,618.49 billion yuan, up 908.73 billion yuan. Margin trading balance increased by 21.07 billion yuan to 19,847.48 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 57.13 billion yuan to 2,391.44 billion yuan. [2] - The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 19.58%, down 12.04 percentage points. The Shibor increased to 1.392%, up 0.075 percentage points. [2] Industry News - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing the need to continue and strengthen macro - policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks. [2] - China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and agreed to extend the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension and China's counter - measures for 90 days. [2] - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, both remaining above the critical point. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic nickel ore supply is tight, the smelting end has profit losses, some non - integrated smelters choose to cut production, the demand end has mixed performance, and the recent supply and demand are both weak. The domestic social inventory increases, the overseas LME inventory decreases, and the cancelled warrants rise. Technically, the price drops while the positions rise, with a strong short - selling atmosphere, breaking below the MA60 support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with a light position [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,830 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,085 US dollars/ton, down 240 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 97,451 lots, an increase of 4,816 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 17,819 lots, an increase of 853 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 208,692 tons, an increase of 600 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,451 tons, an increase of 174 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,278 tons, an increase of 960 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,705 tons, down 54 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,150 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 208.37 US dollars/ton, down 2.75 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 987.87 million tons, an increase of 39.51 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, down 7.57 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 billion tons, down 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, down 15,200 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, deciding to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in Beijing in October, with the main agenda of reporting work to the Central Committee and studying suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support interest rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down. Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average level [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 31, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1045.5, down 7.97% and hitting the daily limit. After several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory generally decreased, clean coal inventory shifted from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, import cumulative growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 31, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1601.0, down 4.93%. The spot market started the fifth round of price increase. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, there was no obvious incremental policy expectation, and with the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, this period's hot - metal output was 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons, with high hot - metal production and no pressure on coal - mine inventory, and the total coking coal inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 54 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1045.50 yuan/ton, down 71.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1601.00 yuan/ton, down 75.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 783278.00 lots, down 10291.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 50815.00 lots, down 241.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 108407.00 lots, down 14621.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6493.00 lots, up 874.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 89.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 53.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 9.00 yuan/ton, up 75.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 354.50 yuan/ton, up 71.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.60 million tons, down 1.20 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% [2]. - Ton - coke profit of independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.78%, down 0.14% [2]. - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [2]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korea, a 40% additional tariff on Brazil (total tariff reaching 50%), and a 25% tariff on goods from India [2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will grow strongly, with an expected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the key policy rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time and said the risk of a serious escalation of the global trade war has weakened [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The jujube market has a seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory of old fruits, but there is periodic replenishment to support prices [2]. - New - season jujube production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated new - season output of 56 - 62 million tons, and the reduction is less than that in 2023 [2]. - The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The temperature in Xinjiang will drop in the next few days, reducing weather risks [2]. - Overall, there are both bullish and bearish factors in the fundamentals. Macro - policy factors and the expected production reduction boost market sentiment, leading to a strong - biased fluctuation in the market, and it is expected to be mainly volatile later. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - season production [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 10,695 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 128,528 lots (a decrease of 4,941 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,507 lots (an increase of 2,133 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 8,739, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,565 [2]. 现货市场 - The wholesale prices of jujube in various regions are stable. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin, etc. [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons (an increase of 3.187 million tons), and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,090 tons (a decrease of 230 tons compared to last week, a 2.23% decrease), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,765,107 kg (a decrease of 464,120 kg), and the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The jujube wholesale price in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg (a decrease of 8), the cumulative quarterly sales volume of Haoxiangni jujube is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate of Haoxiangni jujube is 1.47% (a decrease of 34.59%) [2]. Industry News - On July 31, the temperature in Aksu was between 15 - 28°C, and jujube farmers were actively managing their orchards. The mainstream per - mu yield was 700 - 800 kg, and attention was paid to the supplementary flowering of the third and fourth batches and physiological fruit drop [2]. - On Thursday, the jujube 2601 contract fell 0.83%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 10,090 tons, a 2.23% decrease from the previous week and a 73.07% increase year - on - year. Summer fresh fruits replace jujubes [2].