1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 28, 2025, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were short - strong and long - weak. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 4.0bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.17% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.08%, 0.15%, 0.25%, and 0.55% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 slightly declined and fluctuated around 1.56% [3]. - Domestically, in September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to rebound due to the low - base effect, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In the third quarter, China's GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a steady but slightly slower growth rate compared to the previous value. In September, industrial added value increased significantly year - on - year, social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to converge and entered the contraction range [3]. - Policy - wise, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized that the current economic development faces a complex environment, and the pro - growth policies will continue to exert force. It aims to enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy through expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and stabilizing investment, and requires achieving the annual economic and social development goals [3]. - Overseas, the year - on - year increase in the US CPI in September was lower than expected, and the expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year has increased. In terms of Sino - US trade policy, the new round of trade consultations between China and the US ended, releasing positive signals and alleviating market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions [3]. - Overall, with external demand facing tariff shocks, the repair of domestic demand has become a key support for stabilizing the economy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. The weak fundamental pattern may drive the bond market to strengthen in a volatile manner. However, uncertainties such as the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees continue to disturb market sentiment. Coupled with the recent rebound in risk appetite, it is expected that treasury bond futures will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.415, 105.895, 102.466, and 115.960 respectively, with increases of 0.25%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.55%. The trading volumes of T main contract decreased by 874, while those of TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 9745, 9448, and 9625 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple futures spreads showed downward trends, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread decreased by 0.03 to 0.27, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.32 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts all increased, with increases of 9953, 4078, 1890, and 6157 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased by 708, 3538, 1778, and 3218 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Data - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB (4y) increased by 0.2651 to 106.5618 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 3.50bp, 1.25bp, 5.50bp, 3.75bp, and 5.00bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 13.08bp to 1.4308%, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 2.70bp to 1.4690%. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 3.00bp to 1.5300%, while the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.20bp to 1.5300% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase operations was 4753 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1595 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Diplomatic and Trade**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing the hope that both sides would work together to prepare for high - level exchanges. The two sides are in close communication about the possible meeting of the two heads of state. The new round of Sino - US trade consultations ended with positive signals [2][3]. - **Financial Forum**: At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank would resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. Financial regulators also made important statements on policies such as financial services, capital support, and market reform [2][3]. - **Financial Report**: The State Council's report on financial work proposed to highlight the key direction of financial services to the real economy, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and promote a decline in the comprehensive financing cost of society [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was held from October 27th to 30th. The US Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision (upper limit) for the period ending October 29th will be announced at 2:00 on October 30th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the shipment of urea enterprises has improved slightly, but most of them only maintain a weak balance between production and sales. With some devices shut down for maintenance, the rising trend of enterprise inventory has slowed down, and the domestic urea enterprise inventory only increased slightly last week. However, according to the progress of agriculture, the duration of future demand is limited, and the inventory may still show an increasing trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,600 - 1,660 yuan in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is -73 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 273,001 lots, a decrease of 8,953 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -32,661; the exchange warehouse receipt is 2,970 sheets, a decrease of 2,318 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,630 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is -25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 348.5 US dollars/ton and 375 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, a decrease of 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points; the daily output is 182,600 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 27.71%, an increase of 3.53 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 48.3%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 210,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52.91%. As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.2779 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.61% [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views - **Corn**: With the approaching harvest season, the supply of new corn is increasing, putting downward pressure on prices. In the US, although the estimated yield per unit is lower than the previous forecast, the overall supply pressure is still increasing. In China, the harvest progress in the Northeast has exceeded 40%, and the yield per unit has increased significantly. However, the trading volume is slow, and the purchase price has declined slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the purchase price has continued to weaken due to high moisture and low-quality new grain. The corn futures price has fallen again, and the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [2][3]. - **Corn Starch**: The increase in the supply of raw corn has weakened the cost support for corn starch. The substitution advantage of tapioca starch has continued to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. However, the industry's operating rate has been lower than the same period in previous years, and the supply pressure is not significant. Recently, the company's orders and shipments have been good, and the inventory has slightly declined. The starch market is still in a bearish trend, and a bearish strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 5) was -16 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 13,618 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 traders was -78,853 lots, down 5,574 lots; the registered warehouse receipts were 0 lots [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract was 2425 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the monthly spread (11 - 1) was 24 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract was 211,606 lots, down 74 lots; the net long position of the top 20 traders was -58,907 lots; the registered warehouse receipts were 61,968 lots [2]. - **CS - C Spread**: The spread of the main contract was 348 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active contract was 424 cents/bushel, down 3.75 cents; the total position was 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was -51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price was 2242.55 yuan/ton, down 6.08 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn was 1982.02 yuan/ton, up 0.37 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 0 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang was 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 85 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Products**: The average spot price of wheat was 2475 yuan/ton, up 8.83 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 298 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was -193 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Sowing Area and Yield Forecast**: The sowing area in the US was 42.711 million hectares, and the yield was 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; in Brazil, the sowing area was not provided, and the yield was 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina, the sowing area was 5.3 million hectares, and the yield was 7.5 million tons, unchanged; in China, the sowing area was 29.5 million hectares, and the yield was 44.3 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine, the yield was 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventory at southern ports was 9.3 million tons; at northern ports was 11 million tons; the deep - processing inventory was 203.6 million tons, down 8.2 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises was 114 million tons, down 5.9 million tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn was 2 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 201.5 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Consumption**: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn was 4.02 million tons [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises was 61.67%, up 8.48%; the operating rate of starch enterprises was 55.62%, down 1.12% [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong was 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; in Hebei was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin was 95 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn was 8.91%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.15%, up 0.23% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn was 13.1%, up 3.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.1%, up 3.33% [2]. Industry News - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of the release of the CFTC's position report and the USDA's crop progress report, causing cautious trading in the market [2]. - As of October 22, the sown area of corn in Argentina in the 2025/26 season accounted for 33.8% of the total expected area, 3.9% higher than a week ago [2]. Key Points of Attention - The weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/10/27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,100.00 | +54↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1953001 | -97544↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -112104 | +32581↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -59 | +4↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 150419 | 0.00 HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 199 | -5↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | +30↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,364 | +31↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,290.00 | +20↑ 天津 HRB40 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions. There was a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues in the negotiation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation supported steel prices. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, terminal demand rebounded, and inventory declined. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation strategy is to be bullish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan; the position volume was 1,482,730 lots, down 18,766 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 53,875 lots, down 4,034 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 134,667 tons, down 2,398 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 199 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 61 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2873 million tons, down 12,300 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39%. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2246 million tons, up 6,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.37%, up 0.16%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 773,500 tons, down 5,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.3757 million tons, down 37,700 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which prohibited the increase of the total steel production capacity in key areas and the transfer of steel production capacity between different key areas. Hebei's Tangshan, Langfang, Handan, and Baoding launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on October 27 at 12:00. Some steel mills in Tangshan extended the sintering machine production - restriction time to the end of October, and blast furnaces were shut down by 30% according to capacity, which was estimated to affect the daily hot - metal output by 91,000 tons and 409,500 tons in 4.5 days [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply of Canadian rapeseed imports in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases as the temperature drops and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The overall trend of rapeseed meal is weak, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also affected by multiple factors. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is in place, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil, and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9748 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5344 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 383 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 7501 lots, down 415 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 108969 lots, down 334 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540 sheets, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4050 sheets, down 210 sheets [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10117.5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7529.12 yuan/ton, down 10.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 239 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 million tons, down 2 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 2.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 5.2 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 49.9 million tons, down 1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.1 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.63 million tons, up 1.41 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.97 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6期权市场 - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.43%, down 0.48 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 19.43%, down 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 13.1%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 23.23%, down 1.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 25.01%, up 0.02 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.58%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.72%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on October 24 due to the decline in other vegetable oil prices but still recorded a weekly gain. The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 632.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather conditions, and the expected high yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from the 25th to the 26th supported the US soybean market price [2]. 3.8重点关注 - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventory in each region announced by myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and China - US trade relations [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Given the current scarcity of high - quality new apples and the principle of better quality commanding higher prices, the short - term apple futures price is expected to remain volatile and tend to be strong [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8936 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 143040 lots, with an increase of 12246 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 11581 lots, an increase of 4485 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5 yuan/jin, 2.35 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.2 yuan/jin respectively, with changes of 0, 0.05, 0, and 0 [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.26 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12. The national apple cold - storage total inventory is 0 million tons, and the capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apple cold - storages are both 0, with Shandong's decreasing by 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 70000 tons, with no change. The monthly export value of apples is 6917.9 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1837980 million US dollars, an increase of 248684.5 million US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of mandarins, bananas, and watermelons are 7.3 yuan/kg, 4.82 yuan/kg, and 5.45 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.3, 0.38, and - 0.11. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 15.8, 18.4, and 24.6 respectively, with changes of 0.2, - 0.4, and - 0.2 [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples are both 22%, with a decrease of 0.91 [2] Industry News - In the Shandong production area, the supply of late - season Fuji apples has increased, and buyers and warehousers are actively purchasing, especially for high - quality goods. In the Shaanxi production area, the price of high - quality goods is strong but scarce, and ordinary goods are priced according to quality. In the Gansu production area, the purchase of high - quality goods is basically completed, with prices remaining high and stable, while the prices of ordinary goods are chaotic due to quality issues. The listing volume of new - season late - maturing Fuji apples has increased, but the harvesting and warehousing progress is delayed compared to the same period last year [2] Viewpoint Summary - Merchants are actively purchasing high - quality goods but relatively cautious about ordinary goods. In the Shandong production area, the supply of new apples is still limited, and the demand for small - quantity purchases has increased, making it difficult for merchants to obtain enough high - quality goods, and the warehousing work is sporadic. In the sales area market, the trading atmosphere is still dull, the sales are slow, and the demand side is under pressure [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The probability of the jujube price continuing to decline increases as the supply - side pressure will gradually emerge in the future market. Attention should be paid to the mainstream purchase price and quality of new jujubes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 10,390 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 185,516 lots, down 2,314 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 4,828 lots, up 5,613 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The unified price of Kashi jujubes is 7.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - class Hebei gray jujubes is 4.8 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan; the unified price of Alar jujubes is 7.15 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - class Henan gray jujubes is 4.75 yuan/jin; the unified price of Aksu jujubes is 6.75 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of Henan's special - grade jujubes is 10.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of Hebei's special - grade jujubes is 10.64 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan; the price of Guangdong's special - grade jujubes is 11.6 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of Guangdong's first - class jujubes is 10.6 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, up 3.187 million tons; the jujube planting area is 1.993 million hectares, down 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,103 tons, up 94 tons; the monthly jujube export volume is 2,283,671 kg, down 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 23,548,402 kg, up 2,283,671 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly jujube sales volume of HaoXiangNi is - 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative quarterly jujube output of HaoXiangNi is 36,480.43 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.47%; the cumulative quarterly jujube sales volume of HaoXiangNi has a year - on - year decrease of 34.59% [2] Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, a small amount of goods arrived at the parking area, and the prices were stable. A small amount of new goods arrived, with the reference price of special - grade jujubes at 11.50 yuan/kg and first - class jujubes at 10.50 yuan/kg, and the trading was average. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of goods arrived, and the prices were stable, with high - quality goods showing a stronger trend, and merchants purchasing according to demand. Affected by the solar terms, the gray jujube harvest time is earlier than last year, and the market focus is on the goods available for making warehouse receipts [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of October 23, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week is 9,103 tons, an increase of 94 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%, and a year - on - year increase of 109.22%. The new - season jujubes have not been fully harvested, but inland jujube merchants have gone to the production areas to purchase goods. Some merchants are actively ordering new - season raw materials, and some are purchasing old - season jujubes. The purchase progress in Hotan and Qiemo areas is relatively fast [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Newly - estimated global sugar surplus in the new season has been mostly raised, with sugar production in Thailand and India recovering, which will have a key impact on the supply side. India is expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with a preliminary market expectation of 200 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started production in the 2025/26 season, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons, and short - term northern beet sugar supply will gradually increase. China's sugar imports in September 2025 were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4%. The import of sugar in the third quarter significantly accelerated. According to the forecast of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's total imports this year will exceed 5 million tons, and with the opening of the out - of - quota window for imported sugar, the pressure of later imports remains obvious. Downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the demand for refined sugar and beverages will decrease later. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the main contract position was 401,598 lots, a decrease of 6,562 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,795, a decrease of 390; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 79,016 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar was 586, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,282 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,356 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spot price in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.9%; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons; the monthly sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports were 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 0.4982 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,367 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 251 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 177 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 454,100 tons, an increase of 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.17%, an increase of 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 9.22%, an increase of 0.94%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.72%, a decrease of 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.26%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] Industry News - According to data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending October 22, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 86, compared with 90 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.384 million tons, compared with 3.7272 million tons the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2601 contract fluctuated upwards. In terms of macroeconomics, the US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, with the estimate at 0.4%. Traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates twice more within the year. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrivals decreased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise. The hot metal output fell below 2.4 million tons, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, combined with the rebound in steel prices, supported the furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The operation strategy is to be bullish on the fluctuations and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 786.50 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; the position volume was 558,846 lots, down 6,796 lots. The spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 29,956 lots, down 12,504 lots. The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 700 lots, with no change. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 105.7 US dollars/ton, up 1.50 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 850 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 850 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 778 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract was 64 yuan, down 10 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 105.15 US dollars/ton (previous day), down 0.50 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.21, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 857 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Global and Domestic Shipping and Inventory - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,388.40 million tons, up 54.80 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,084.30 million tons, down 592.00 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,109.49 million tons, up 147.62 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,079.19 million tons, up 96.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 19 days, down 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.15 million tons, down 0.19 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.50%, down 0.05%. The iron concentrate powder inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 47.45 million tons, down 1.85 million tons. The BDI index was 1,991.00, down 66.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.85 US dollars/ton, down 0.81 US dollars; from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.705 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 84.73%, up 0.48%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 89.92%, down 0.39%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.94%, up 1.35%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.99%, up 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.78%, up 0.73%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.47%, up 1.14% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From October 20th to October 26th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,388.4 million tons, up 54.8 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,925.9 million tons, up 100.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,984.3 million tons, down 0.2 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,666.5 million tons, down 62.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 941.5 million tons, up 101.0 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,084.3 million tons, down 592.0 million tons; at 45 ports was 2,029.1 million tons, down 490.3 million tons; at six northern ports was 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons [2]