Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract continued to rise. The 7 - month Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, and domestic port inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, but the year - on - year decline widened. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded, with hot metal production exceeding 2.4 million tons, and demand support still exists. Overall, there are positive macro - level expectations, and finished products and furnace materials are rising in resonance. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at high levels. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract was 619,902 lots, down 43,544 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 29.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,873 lots, down 11,185 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,300 lots, up 300 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.35 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 1.87 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 853 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 835 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 739 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 12 yuan, down 16 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.95 US dollars/ton, up 2.75 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.30, up 0.07. The estimated import cost was 846 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly departure volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments was 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons. The weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports was 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons. The weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly iron ore import volume was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines was 64.00%, up 1.17%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index was 2,016.00, down 36.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.87 US dollars/ton, up 0.08 US dollars. The freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.52 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%. The weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, down 0.14%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.47%, down 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.88%, up 2.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.94%, up 2.15% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,109.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,552.0 million tons, with Australia's shipment volume at 1,629.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108.9 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China at 1,443.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.5 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 922.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.1 million tons [2]. - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,511.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 371.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,371.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.9 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,389.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241.3 million tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from the newly - opened production of hens supplemented earlier, resulting in sufficient egg supply. In the high - temperature and high - humidity climate, the egg storage cost increases, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, keeping egg prices at a relatively low level compared to the same period. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old hen culling accelerates, reducing the inventory expectation. Also, due to the continuous high temperature in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. With the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the farmers' expectation of price increase is released, which promotes the low - level rebound of egg prices. From the perspective of the futures market, boosted by the stabilization and rebound of the spot market, the decline of the futures market has slowed down, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3621 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 15 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26705 hands, a decrease of 9586 hands. The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 4 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 15 yuan. The futures trading volume of the active contract is 252239 hands, an increase of 7374 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.27 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan. The basis (spot - futures) is - 350 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 44 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.02. The national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The national new - hatched chick index is 76.07 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.22 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 9.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan. The national average age of culled hens is 501 days, a decrease of 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.26 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.31 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.95 days, a decrease of 0.1 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7886 tons, an increase of 289 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.49 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.15 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.60 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan compared to the previous day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations are somewhat restored but still weak in reality. There is an accumulation of industrial inventory, and more effective demand is needed to drive industry destocking. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 148,507 lots, down 1,651 lots. The position of the main contract is 411,638 lots, up 30,453 lots. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 1,000 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The warehouse receipts of GZEE are 9,969 lots, down 270 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,880 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 730 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 6,325 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,878 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons. The monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons. The monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%. The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 4.93 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 222,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (811 - type) in China is 144,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China is 119,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.05 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 44.32%, up 0.33%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 70,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, down 0.38%. The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.75%, down 0.04% [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 194,993 lots, up 11,479 lots. The total put position is 89,197 lots, up 5,667 lots. The put - to - call ratio of the total position is 45.74%, up 0.2267%. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.35%, up 0.0343% [2] Industry News - Guangdong and Anhui, as strong provinces in automobile manufacturing in China, will standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry, shifting from "price war" to "value war". Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH) announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 7.534 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.04%, and the net profit was 307 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.76%. The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide increased by 56.64% year - on - year, and the sales volume of power battery cathode materials increased by 20.76% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national economy showed a stable and positive trend, and the more proactive fiscal policy was effective. In the second half of the year, the fiscal policy will continue to play a leading role in promoting consumption and investment [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The electrolytic aluminum market may face stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with the influence of the consumption off - season intensifying. The casting aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory gradually accumulating [2]. - For all three markets (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy), the technical analysis shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with converging red columns. The recommended trading strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,513 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,641 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The spreads of some contracts changed, such as the spread of the Shanghai Aluminum current - next month contract increasing by 10 yuan to 65 yuan, while the alumina current - next month contract spread decreased by 24 yuan to 0 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 13,990 hands to 330,897 hands, while the alumina main contract position decreased by 9,904 hands to 211,644 hands. LME aluminum inventories increased by 3,725 tons to 434,425 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 740 yuan to - 30 yuan, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 280 yuan to 100 yuan. The basis of alumina decreased by 203 yuan to - 176 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 774.93 million tons per month, with a national alumina start - up rate of 79.61% and a capacity utilization rate of 80.93% (down 1.17 percentage points) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons per month, and the alumina supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 million tons to 27.14 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: China's imports of aluminum scrap and waste decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons per month, and exports decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons per month. Alumina exports decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons per month, and imports increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons per month [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons per month, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons per month, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: The import of primary aluminum decreased by 30,781 tons to 192,314.50 tons per month, and the export decreased by 12,523.35 tons to 19,570.72 tons per month. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons per month, and the export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons per month [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons to 166.90 million tons per month, and the production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles per month. The national housing climate index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 10.04%, the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01 percentage points to 10.10%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money increased by 0.0233 percentage points to 11.38%, and the put - call ratio increased by 0.0486 to 1.13 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fiscal policy in the second half of 2025 is expected to continue to support consumption and investment, and market institutions expect a further decline in LPR [2]. - Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorated" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [2]. 3.8 Market Views and Suggestions - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/7/22 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A total of 1,540 A-share listed companies disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts for 2025 as of July 18, 2025, with 674 companies expecting good news, a pre - happy ratio of about 43.77% [2] - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus loan prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged from the previous month [2] - A - share major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.61%. The trading volume of the two markets increased for four consecutive trading days [2] - The real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in for social retail sales has weakened, but the loose monetary policy has shown results in financial data, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators [2] - As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may make early arrangements, and stock indices still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' main and sub - main contracts all showed upward trends in price changes compared to the previous period [2] - The spreads between different contracts such as IC - IF, IF - IH, etc. also had corresponding changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in futures contracts mostly decreased, such as IH with a decrease of 1,666.0 and IF with a decrease of 518.0 [2] Basis and Market Sentiment Data - The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased compared to the previous period [2] - The margin trading balance increased by 1,338.16 billion yuan, and the A - share trading volume increased by 155.82 billion yuan [2] - The reverse repurchase operation volume increased by 140.75 billion yuan, and the north - bound trading volume increased by 2,148.0 [2] - The MLF net injection decreased by 465.57 billion yuan [2] Option and Volatility Data - The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2508) increased by 18.40, and its implied volatility increased by 0.26% [2] - The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2508) decreased by 19.20, and its implied volatility increased by 0.26% [2] - The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.42%, and the trading volume PCR increased by 1.67% [2] - The position PCR increased by 5.72% [2] Technical and Market Analysis Data - The Wind market strength of all A - shares decreased by 1.50, and the technical aspect decreased by 2.60 [2] - The capital aspect decreased by 0.30 [2] Key Events to Watch - On July 24, 15:15 - 16:30, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI values for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK in July will be released [3] - On July 24, 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3] - On July 24, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 will be released, and at 21:45, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI value for the US in July will be released [3] - On July 27, 9:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for June will be released [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is affected by various factors. The supply side shows an increasing trend in capacity utilization, with previous production - cut and shutdown devices gradually resuming. The demand side has different performances in different downstream industries, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The caustic soda market trend is strong due to policy - expected benefits [3]. - The capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend, but the limited downstream receiving capacity of liquid chlorine may affect the profit of chlor - alkali and restrict the increase in the operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2658 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 89; the futures holding volume is 208,451 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 18,042; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 12,439 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 272; the futures trading volume is 1,029,619 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 157,211 [3]. - The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2699 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 143; the closing price of the May contract is 2763 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 140 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25; the basis of caustic soda is - 64 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 89 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The price of steam coal is 637 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 100; in Jiangsu, it is - 225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3160 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% [3]. - As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.78% [3]. - Affected by the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose during the day, with SH2509 rising 3.95% to close at 2658 yuan/ton [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise, with some devices in the Northwest and Central China planning to shut down this week, and the impact of previously restarted devices expanding [3]. - On the demand side, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.33% to 83.61%, with an average profit of 360.7 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 58.9% [3]. - In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 383,900 tons last week, with no significant inventory pressure [3]. - Some devices in Shandong are still in the process of recovery, but the limited receiving capacity of liquid chlorine downstream may affect chlor - alkali profits and restrict the increase in the operating rate [3]. - The operating capacity of domestic alumina remains at a high level, with an increase in the amount sent to the main downstream by caustic soda plants; the off - season demand of non - aluminum downstream is weak, mainly with rigid demand, and some enterprises resist high prices [3]. - Affected by the positive policy expectation, the caustic soda futures trend is strong [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View - The current raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold storage goods being the main trading items and general inquiry and purchasing. Short - term drought in Henan has raised concerns about a new - season yield reduction, the amount of imported rice remains low, and the willingness of holders to support the price of high - quality cold - storage peanuts has increased, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing. Later, continue to pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas. New peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei are expected to be launched around early August, and focus on the opening price of new peanuts. As time passes and a small amount of new peanuts are launched, pay attention to the shipment of old peanuts and the change in the mentality of holders [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Peanut main contract closing price is 8140 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; trading volume is 69,637 lots, up 22,366 lots; open interest is 94,845 lots, up 836 lots; exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots. The net position of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 15,713 lots, up 483 lots [2] Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - using peanuts is 7566.7 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price of peanuts is 8700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of imported Sudan refined rice is 8350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan common peanuts is 8900 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong common peanuts is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - China's peanut production estimate is 19 million tons, down 217,000 tons; global peanut production forecast is 51.78 million tons, up 1.08 million tons. China's peanut harvest area estimate is 4.85 million hectares, down 130,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 4.63%, up 0.42 percentage points; the import volume of peanut kernels is 27,770 tons, up 13,110 tons; the peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 111,410 tons, down 5160 tons; the export volume of peanut kernels is 14,550 tons, down 2960 tons. The peanut oil processing profit in Henan is 110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 121 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan. The global peanut ending inventory forecast is 4.22 million tons, up 280,000 tons; the global peanut crushing volume forecast is 19.28 million tons, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import volume of peanut oil is 38,616.85 tons, up 9747.48 tons; the export volume of peanut oil is 876.02 tons, up 211.25 tons. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 6360 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.36, unchanged. The annual forecast of peanut oil production is 3,491,600 tons, unchanged; the global peanut oil production forecast is 6.29 million tons, unchanged; the global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil is 6.25 million tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 8.5%, up 0.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 10.72%, up 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points [2] Industry News - Peanut prices in different regions are reported, including Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, and Jilin. The raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold - storage transactions dominating. Short - term drought in Henan causes concerns about new - season yield reduction, and the import volume of rice is still low. Holders of cold - storage high - quality peanuts are more willing to support prices, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas, the opening price of new peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei in early August, the shipment of old peanuts, and the change in the mentality of holders [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract continued to rise. With positive macro - policy expectations, the week - on - week hot - rolled coil production slightly declined, factory and social inventories both decreased, and terminal demand was resilient, which supported the strong operation of hot - rolled coil futures. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running at a high level. The recommended operation was to conduct long - biased trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,477 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,582,445 lots, down 18,031 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in HC contracts: - 51,658 lots, up 10,293 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: - 15 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - HC warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 59,549 tons, down 905 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,490 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: - 27 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 30 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 783 yuan/wet ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,240 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,120 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 137.8521 million tons, up 0.1932 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, up 0.35% [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.92%, up 1.05% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2114 million tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.04%, down 0.51% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 773,100 tons, down 5,000 tons [2]. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.656 million tons, down 21,500 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.21 million tons, down 0.89 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million vehicles, up 0.1456 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million vehicles, up 0.2181 million vehicles [2]. - Air - conditioner production: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.0474 million units, up 0.5374 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 9.5079 million units, up 0.0959 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - At the 10th Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum from July 19th to 20th, steel enterprise representatives agreed to implement the central government's requirement to break the "involution" and strengthen industry self - discipline for the development of the regional steel industry [2]. - In June, the domestic billet export volume was 1.1757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.33% and a year - on - year increase of 280.19%. From January to June, the domestic billet export volume was 5.8922 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 300.31% [2].

ME库存小幅下降，但现货升水走高，LME锌价强势带动国内锌价。技术面，多头氛围升温，突破震荡区间 上沿，关注M5均线支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或轻仓短多。 免责声明 | | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22945 | 20 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -50 | -10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2844.5 | 20.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 237168 | -1182 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 21871 | 4744 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 12090 | 1002 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 54630 | 4649 LME库存(日,吨) | 118225 | -875 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22780 | -40 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash remains abundant, and demand is hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. For glass, it is advisable to temporarily observe the market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1,375 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1,249 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position: 1,074,637 lots, down 177,945 lots; glass main contract position: 1,044,115 lots, down 182,849 lots [2]. - Soda ash 9 - January contract spread: -59 yuan, unchanged; glass 9 - January contract spread: -93 yuan, down 12 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: -95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: -113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1,150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Central China light soda ash: 1,195 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production line number: 223, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple events are reported, including potential Sino - US summit, release of housing rental regulations, EU - China leaders' meeting, and various policy announcements in different fields [2]. Macro - level and Market Analysis - The coal price is affected by the coal production verification notice. The domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, but the subsequent production is expected to decline. The glass production line has one cold - repair, with overall production unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2]. - The soda ash inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to insufficient demand. The glass market is mainly trading on expectations, and the basis remains in a normal range [2].