Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic demand for sugar is recovering, and the price of sugar futures in China is stronger than that in the international market. With multiple factors at play, the overall sugar price is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 334,160 lots, down 2,993 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,359, down 78; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -2,538 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,583 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,644 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 8.38%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.26%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.02%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 2.34472471 million tons of sugar in the first half of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,480.34 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon futures market saw a daily limit today, mainly due to the rising coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic industry has been a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. It is advised to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,445 yuan. The price difference between August and September was 225 yuan, a decrease of 175 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 192,179 lots, an increase of 20,122 lots. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 39,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,050 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,810 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 395 yuan. The spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly production was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons. The monthly export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars. The monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, a decrease of 318,300 kilowatts. The average daily price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, a decrease of 14,424,120 units. The monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, a decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2]. Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative. In the polysilicon industry, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing maintenance. The self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. The demand side was affected by the anti - involution conference, with a significant decline in production capacity but a gradual recovery in price. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down, and the demand has weakened marginally [2]. - The National Energy Administration issued a notice on verifying coal production to ensure stable coal supply [2]. 观点总结 - The overall demand for polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The futures market of polysilicon rose to the daily limit today, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. The photovoltaic industry remains a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. The spot price did not rise today. It is recommended to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2].

Report Summary on the Shanghai Tin Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a light - position long - buying strategy, with a reference range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton. The macro - environment has positive factors such as the upcoming ten - key industries' steady - growth work plan and the start of a major hydropower project. The fundamental situation shows limited supply due to delayed mining production in some regions and low tin - ore processing fees, along with weak demand in some downstream industries. Technically, the bullish sentiment is strong, and it has broken through the MA10, so attention should be paid to the resistance at the 270,000 yuan/ton mark [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,270 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,675 US dollars/ton, up 320 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract price of Shanghai Tin is - 280 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the main contract position is 16,761 lots, down 1,931 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures is - 272 lots, down 222 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 1,885 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,148 tons, up 51 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 75 tons, down 170 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,791 tons, down 18 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,510 yuan/ton, down 1,310 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,220 yuan/ton, down 2,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 53 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,670 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 21, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%. In the first half of 2025, the national economy was generally stable and improving, and the fiscal policy continued to be proactive. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorated" [2]. 3.7 Technical and Operational Suggestions - Technically, the bullish sentiment is strong, breaking through the MA10, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 270,000 yuan/ton mark. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with a reference range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term PVC market is bullish due to policy incentives, but the industry faces long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. Cost - wise, the restart of some calcium carbide plants may put pressure on calcium carbide prices, and the ethylene market price may remain weakly stable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5260 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 142 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1,850,727 lots, up 27,185 lots. The open interest is 865,261 lots, down 49,630 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,942 lots, down 6,035 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,031.15 yuan/ton, up 177.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,011.25 yuan/ton, up 158.75 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 503 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 211 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.59%, with the ethylene - based PVC operating rate at 71.95% (up 0.62%) and the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate at 0.93%. The total social inventory of PVC is 79.71 million tons, up 1.83 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region is 36.41 million tons, up 1.43 million tons, and in the South China region is 4.69 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The national real - estate climate index is 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 633,321.43 million square meters, up 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.06%, up 1.28%, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, up 1.23%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options for PVC is 23.15%, up 3.73% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 22, the spot cash price of Changzhou PVC SG5 increased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, ranging from 5,060 to 5,130 yuan/ton. From July 12 to 18, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a 0.62% increase from the previous period. As of July 17, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% to 65.73 million tons compared to the previous period, a 31.15% decrease year - on - year. Affected by the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose, with V2509 rising 3.69% to close at 5,260 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand of pure benzene have a marginal improvement expectation, but overall, it remains in a state where supply exceeds demand, and the spot valuation is expected to remain low. The weak reality of pure benzene is in a game with strong expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6360 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract was 6278 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the settlement price was 6238 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the pure benzene futures main contract was 20,494 lots, down 611 lots; the open interest was 13,685 lots, up 775 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6010 yuan/ton, with no change; in the North China market, it was 5860 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in the South China market, it was 5950 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northeast region, it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB intermediate price was 731 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars; the CFR intermediate price in China was 746.5 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 70.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.53 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 572.88 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.52 tons, up 0.35 tons [2]. - The port inventory of pure benzene was 16.4 tons, down 1 ton; the production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 78.3%, down 0.91 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 6 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton [2]. - As of July 21st, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 17.1 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.21% [2]. - Affected by the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products futures rose during the day, with BZ2603 rising 0.95% to close at 6278 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.20 percentage points week-on-week to 78.05%, and the capacity utilization rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.51 percentage points week-on-week to 64.46%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream varied last week, and the weighted operating rate of downstream changed little. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased by 4.21% week-on-week to 17.1 tons. This week, the total output of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene is expected to decline slightly due to maintenance, and the volume of imported ships is expected to increase. The pure benzene spot may maintain a state of loose supply. Some downstream shutdown devices will restart, and there are plans to put new downstream devices into production this month, so the demand side is expected to increase [2].

红枣产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10490 | 160 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 132308 | -5271 -35 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -20196 | 2665 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8912 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1448 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.2 | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.74 | -0.06 广东红枣 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals show that the TC spot index of copper concentrate has slightly rebounded but still operates in the negative range, and port inventories have slightly increased. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the quotation of copper ore slightly. On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials recently and the good price of by - product sulfuric acid from smelters, smelters' production willingness remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply volume may increase steadily and slightly. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventories have slightly accumulated but still operate at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually being repaired. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1204, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,849 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 1,583 lots, up 2,935 lots. LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, down 100 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,575 tons, down 1,500 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 25,507 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 15 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 66.96 dollars/ton, down 13.2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,030 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,730 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.57%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.02%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 12.4%, up 0.0291; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.53, down 0.1204 [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the national economy generally operated steadily and improved. The more proactive fiscal policy has achieved remarkable results. In the second half of the year, to promote consumption and investment, the fiscal policy will continue to act proactively. The LPR in China remained unchanged in July for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect that there is room for further decline in LPR in the second half of the year. International rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow over the US credit outlook. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production decreased slightly last week as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output of restored production capacity. The overall inventory showed a downward trend as some olefin plants consumed the previously accumulated methanol inventory after resumption, but the methanol port inventory continued to increase. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2430 - 2500 in the short - term [2][3]. - The overall inventory of methanol showed a downward trend last week, but the port inventory continued to increase. The olefin industry's overall start - up increased slightly last week, and the short - term overall start - up rate is expected to increase slightly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2457 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 79 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 660,678 lots, an increase of 10,223 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 111,147 lots, an increase of 4086 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,344, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 67 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 275 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 223 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 55 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 63.4 tons, an increase of 6.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 15.62 tons, an increase of 0.78 tons. The import profit of methanol was 3.44 yuan/ton, down 7.04 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate was 82.69%, down 2.06 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 43.65%, down 1.59 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 90.59%, down 3.32 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, unchanged; the start - up rate of MTBE was 67.63%, up 0.77 percentage points. The start - up rate of olefins was 85.1%, down 0.05 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1003 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 14.65%, down 7.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.16%, up 0.39 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol was 18.99%, up 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 24.31 tons, an increase of 2.19 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% [2]. - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 79.02 tons, an increase of 7.13 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China increased by 6.35 tons and 0.78 tons respectively [2]. - As of July 17, as of July 16, 2025 (the 29th week), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the coking coal and coke industries dated July 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - On July 22, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5, up 7.98%. With strong macro - expectations, the mine - end inventory is generally decreasing, market confidence is improving, and the clean coal inventory is shifting downstream. Technically, it should be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile manner [2] - On July 22, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5, up 7.98%. Coke enterprises initiated a second price increase. The raw material supply is gradually improving, and the pig iron production is at a high level. Technically, it should also be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile manner [2] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose to 1048.50 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 rose to 1697.50 yuan/ton, up 94.50 yuan [2] - JM期货合约持仓量 decreased to 773525.00 hands, down 39102.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 decreased to 54322.00 hands, down 1546.00 hands [2] - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts increased to - 66451.00 hands, up 17259.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts decreased to - 4374.00 hands, down 545.00 hands [2] - The JM1 - 9 month contract spread rose to 88.50 yuan/ton, up 38.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 month contract spread rose to 54.50 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan [2] - The coking coal warehouse receipts remained at 0.00, and the coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal rose to 850.00 yuan/ton, up 54.00 yuan; the price of Russian main coking coal forward spot remained at 120.00 dollars/wet ton [2] - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal rose to 1420.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal remained at 1440.00 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal remained at 1100.00 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price remained at 980.00 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke remained at 1445.00 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke remained at 1270.00 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke remained at 1370.00 yuan/ton; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke remained at 1270.00 yuan/ton [2] - The JM主力合约基差 decreased to 51.50 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; the J主力合约基差 decreased to - 252.50 yuan/ton, down 94.50 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants decreased to 298.69 million tons, down 2.08 million tons; the clean coal inventory decreased to 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 million tons [2] - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants increased to 62.85%, up 0.52 percentage points; the raw coal production increased to 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2] - The import volume of coal and lignite decreased to 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines increased to 192.90 thousand tons, up 1.10 thousand tons [2] - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased to 553.50 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports decreased to 252.71 million tons, down 2.97 million tons [2] 4. Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises increased to 929.11 million tons, up 36.76 million tons; the total inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises decreased to 87.55 million tons, down 5.53 million tons [2] - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide increased to 791.10 million tons, up 8.17 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide increased to 638.99 million tons, up 1.19 million tons [2] - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises increased to 12.63 days, up 0.15 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills decreased to 11.46 days, down 0.18 days [2] - The import volume of coking coal increased to 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke decreased to 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2] - The coking coal production decreased to 0.00 million tons, down 4070.27 million tons; the independent coking enterprise capacity utilization rate decreased to 72.87%, down 0.30 percentage points [2] - The independent coking plant's profit per ton of coke increased to - 43.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton; the coke production decreased to 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide increased to 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased to 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points [2] - The crude steel production decreased to 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 6. Industry News - At the 10th Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum from July 19th to 20th, steel enterprises agreed to strengthen self - discipline in production control [2] - China's LPR in July remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, and market institutions expect a further decline in the second half of the year [2] - Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations", which will come into effect on September 15th, aiming to increase rental housing supply [2] - Guangdong and Anhui will standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Corn**: Internationally, the high initial growth - stage good rate of US corn indicates high output prospects, putting continuous pressure on international corn prices. Domestically, the auction of imported corn has low transaction volume and decreasing premiums. Due to previous panic selling by traders, the supply increased, but with poor deep - processing benefits and limited enterprise procurement demand, prices fell. However, as traders' inventories decreased and the willingness to hold grains increased, the supply decreased, and some processing enterprises had rigid procurement needs, leading to a slight increase in purchase prices. The corn futures price rebounded recently after a continuous decline, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, with slightly slower downstream pick - up. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price rebounded recently following the rebound of corn [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2322 yuan/ton, corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2668 yuan/ton, corn 9 - 1 monthly spread is 76 yuan/ton, and corn starch 9 - 11 monthly spread is 53 yuan/ton. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 346 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: Corn futures position (active contract) is 975,861 lots, a decrease of 60,392 lots; corn starch futures position (active contract) is 224,231 lots, a decrease of 12,418 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 22,140 lots, and that of corn starch is - 20,339 lots [2]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 175,657 lots, a decrease of 1,686 lots; those of corn starch are 12,134 lots, a decrease of 50 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of CBOT corn (active contract) is 422.5 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5.5 cents. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,470,395 contracts, a decrease of 28,569 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 129,457 contracts, an increase of 12,305 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average spot price of corn is 2409.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.17 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average spot price of wheat is 2441.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main corn contract is 87.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Production and Planting Area**: The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. The predicted planting area of corn in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. - **Inventory**: The corn inventory in southern ports is 83.8 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons; in northern ports is 317 tons, a decrease of 36 tons. The deep - processing corn inventory is 427 tons, a decrease of 16.6 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 tons, a decrease of 3 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, an increase of 4.06 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, and the monthly output of corn starch is 98.1 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Inventory and Consumption**: The sample feed corn inventory days are 31.34 days, a decrease of 0.24 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 110.05 tons, a decrease of 5.73 tons [2]. - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Hebei is - 62 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan; in Jilin is - 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.34%, a decrease of 4.62%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, an increase of 0.15% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.13%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.94%, a decrease of 0.13%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.37%, a decrease of 0.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.37%, a decrease of 0.43% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - **US Corn Export**: As of the week ending July 17, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume is 983,625 tons, lower than the revised 1,314,302 tons of last week and 991,257 tons of the same period last year [2]. - **Brazilian Corn Harvest**: As of July 18, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn has reached 53.30% of the planned total planting area, up from 40.46% a week ago, but lower than 50.84% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 57.69% [2]. - **US Corn Growth**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good rate of US corn is 74%, consistent with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 67% of the same period last year [2].