本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2239.700 | -36.4↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1537 | -42.90↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | 702.70 | +1.00↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 537.90 | -3.10↓ | | EC合约基差 | 160.80 | +10.00↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 11039 | -1354↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 | -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1,301.81 | 35.22↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, with demand hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. - For glass, it is advisable to temporarily wait and see as the price has encountered short - term platform resistance and the subsequent breakthrough is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1338 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1211 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1074637 lots, down 177945 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1044115 lots, down 182849 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 225673 lots, up 77294 lots; glass top 20 net open interest: - 248449 lots, up 45449 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 236 tons, up 236 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 93 yuan, down 12 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: - 113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1195 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 188.42 million tons, down 2.14 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6493.9 million heavy boxes, down 216.3 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration to promote the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice aims to regulate coal mining enterprises' production behavior. On July 23, it was confirmed to be true [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is abundant, with production increasing. Profits have slightly recovered but are still negative, and production is expected to decline. Natural alkali method will gradually become the mainstream. Glass production line cold - repaired 1, with overall production unchanged. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory is increasing due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: Supply - side production remains at the bottom, with signs of rigid - demand production. Industry profits have improved, and the resumption of production may increase. Demand - side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders are declining, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations are somewhat restored, but the actual situation remains weak. The industry inventory is accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive industry destocking. [2] - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a situation where the main contract oscillates downward, the trading volume decreases, the spot is at a premium, and the basis strengthens. [2] - In the option market, the call position dominates, the market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. [2] - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 69,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,500 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 158,571 hands, a decrease of 10,064 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 362,054 hands, a decrease of 49,584 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 10,089 hands/ton, an increase of 120 hands. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,850 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 730 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials remain unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, an increase of 3 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 vehicles, a decrease of 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, an increase of 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 6,937,000 vehicles, an increase of 1,993,000 vehicles. [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, a decrease of 70,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 1.06 million vehicles, an increase of 455,000 vehicles. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 193,954 contracts, a decrease of 1,039 contracts; the total put position is 92,722 contracts, an increase of 3,525 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 47.81%, an increase of 2.0625 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.39%, an increase of 0.0457 percentage points. [2] 3.7 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Zimbabwe's spodumene concentrate exports increased by 30% year - on - year, reaching 586,197 tons. [2] - In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa were the main importing countries. [2] - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was about 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. [2]

Report Overview - The report is the Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report dated July 23, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounded slightly but remained in the negative range. The domestic supply of copper may increase steadily and slightly, while demand is temporarily weak due to the seasonal consumption off - season. However, due to the strengthening of macro - policy benefits, the industry outlook is gradually being repaired. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 79,590 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,887 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest in Shanghai copper increased by 6,169 to 172,895 hands, while the top 20 long - short positions decreased by 915 to 668 hands. LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons to 124,850 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 325 tons to 12,250 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 15,535 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,790 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 79,805 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The CU main contract basis was 200 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 68.24 dollars/ton, down 1.28 dollars. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 65 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the Yangshan copper average premium was 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC for domestic copper smelters increased by 0.34 to - 43.45 dollars/kiloton. The prices of copper concentrates in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased by 70 yuan/metal ton to 70,030 yuan/metal ton and 70,730 yuan/metal ton respectively. The processing fees for blister copper in the South and North remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper was 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 55,740 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 68,100 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real - estate development investment was 46,657.56 billion yuan, up 10,423.72 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.59%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.03%, up 0.01%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 13.12%, up 0.0072. The at - the - money option long - short ratio was 1.46, down 0.0735 [2] Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the new round of Sino - US negotiations may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, expressing the hope that the US side would work with China to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the Fed's independence in monetary policy and the responsibility for transparency and accountability. At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May, compared with a shortage of 80,000 tons in April. In the first five months of this year, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 272,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 273,000 tons in the same period last year [2]

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 2249.700 -50.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1548 | | -100.50↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | 701.70 +2.50↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | 541.00 | | -8.70↓ | | EC合约基差 | 150.80 +42.20↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 12393 -1644↓ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 1,301.81 | | 35.22↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1646.90 -86.39↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | | 0.07↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1303.54 ...

Report Summary of Precious Metals Industry Daily (July 22, 2025) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The core driver of this round of gold price rebound is the simultaneous decline of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to uncertainties in US fiscal and politics, and the persistent trade uncertainties brought by the approaching deadline of US - EU tariff negotiations on August 1st. The "tariff countdown" may become the main trading theme for gold in the near term. The expected high - level tariffs and the non - extension stance of the White House suppress corporate profits and risk assets, heighten concerns about potential inflation and growth impairment in the US, weaken the demand for the US dollar, and boost the safe - haven demand for gold. [3] - Market interpretations of the Fed's policy path are divided. After the release of the latest data, investors are reducing dovish bets, resulting in a "downward interest - rate trend with a slower pace" environment, which maintains the relative return of holding gold. [3] - The recent strong performance of silver has significantly repaired the gold - silver ratio compared to the beginning of the year. The tight supply situation of silver for semiconductor industry use and inventory may continue to support its potential for further repair. [3] - The US - EU tariff situation remains highly uncertain. The continuous impact of tariff risks and tax - cut bills enhances the safe - haven property of gold, and the gold price center may continue to rise. The market's bets on a Fed rate cut in September are relatively stable. The expectation of rate cuts and accelerating inflation may push down the real yield of US Treasuries, potentially benefiting the gold price. For investment, a strategy of buying gold on dips is recommended, while short - term callback risks for silver should be noted. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 784.84 yuan/gram, up 3.14 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9393 yuan/kg, up 122 yuan. [3] - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 216,722 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 476,010 lots, an increase of 8,476 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 152,454 lots, an increase of 4,916 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 137,092 lots, an increase of 2,059 lots. [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 28,857 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,199,046 kg, a decrease of 5,420 kg. [3] 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 781.5 yuan/gram, up 5.8 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9314 yuan/kg, up 114 yuan. [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.34 yuan/gram, up 2.66 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 79 yuan/kg, down 8 yuan. [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holding was 947.06 tons, an increase of 3.44 tons; the silver ETF holding was 15,005.79 tons, an increase of 347.58 tons. [3] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 213,115 contracts, an increase of 10,147 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 59,448 contracts, an increase of 927 contracts. [3] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces. [3] 3.4 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.25%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.21%, down 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 18.95%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for gold was 18.95%, down 0.29%. [3] 3.5 Industry News - International rating agency Fitch downgraded the outlook for 25% of the US industry in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates. [3] - The latest estimate by a US congressional analysis agency shows that the "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US government's fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" about tariffs, stating that tariffs have had little inflationary effect so far, and emphasized the need to review the Fed's performance, while indicating that the Trump administration focuses more on the quality of trade agreements than time nodes. [3] - EU may hold a meeting this week to formulate contingency plans for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" for the first time. As the August 1st deadline for US - EU tariff negotiations approaches, Trump has taken a tougher stance. [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.5%. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, steel enterprises in central and western regions strengthen self - discipline in production control, meeting the requirements of breaking the "involution" put forward by the central government and enhancing industry self - discipline. There are positive expectations for supply, and combined with the strong upward movement of furnace materials, the cost side supports the relatively strong operation of rebar futures prices. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 45.83%; the apparent demand for rebar declines, and the total inventory ends its continuous decline. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,307.00 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the position volume of the RB main contract is 2,024,507 lots, down 71,405 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 24,665 lots, down 19,656 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,534 tons, unchanged. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,420.00 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight, yuan/ton) is 3,508 yuan, up 51 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,450.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,330.00 yuan, up 50 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 113.00 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 30.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 783.00 yuan/wet ton, down 6.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price; yuan/ton) is 1,265.00 yuan, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax, yuan/ton) is 2,240.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons. The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons. The operation rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] 3.6行业消息 - In June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 1.1757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.33% and a year - on - year increase of 280.19%. From January to June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 5.8922 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 300.31%. On the morning of July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project will build 5 cascade hydropower stations with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For soybeans (domestic): The current oversupply situation persists, limiting the upside potential. The downstream market is expected to start the back - to - school season stocking after mid - August, which may drive a new round of market trends [2]. - For soybeans (imported): There is a lack of new speculative themes. The decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans is offset by the expected rainfall, which eases the impact of high temperatures on crops, leading to a price correction [2]. - For soybean meal: Internationally, the US soybean is expected to be strong due to weather and bio - fuel policies. Domestically, the increase in import costs and the high - cost performance of low - price soybean meal in July may lead to increased purchases by feed enterprises. However, the abundant supply will limit the price increase [2][3]. - For soybean oil: Internationally, the US bio - fuel policy boosts demand, and the market focuses on weather during the key growing season. Domestically, there is inventory accumulation, a continuous decline in basis, and weak market supply and demand due to the seasonal off - season and poor terminal demand [2][3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing prices of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil showed different trends, with soybean meal up 17 yuan/ton and soybean oil down 16 yuan/ton. CBOT soybean and soybean meal prices decreased, while CBOT soybean oil prices increased [2]. - Position volume: The position volume of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil also had various changes, with the position volume of soybean meal decreasing by 34,462 hands and that of soybean oil decreasing by 14,497 hands [2]. - Net long positions: The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil had different changes, with the net long position of soybean meal increasing by 17,212 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, with soybean meal decreasing by 463 hands and soybean oil decreasing by 423 hands [2]. Spot Price - Domestic soybean price remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan/ton, and soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased, with the price in Rizhao down 60 yuan/ton to 8,150 yuan/ton [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans increased by 79 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 23 yuan/ton to 3,477 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and inventory: US soybean production decreased by 0.14 million tons to 117.98 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 8.44 million tons. Brazilian production remained unchanged at 175 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 39.96 million tons [2]. - Export and inspection: The weekly inspection volume of US soybeans decreased by 8,942 thousand bushels to 5,426 thousand bushels, and the weekly export volume decreased by 119,457 tons to 276,415 tons. Brazilian monthly exports increased by 470,000 tons to 14.99 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and开工率: The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased by 16,500 tons to 6,659,650 tons, the weekly inventory of soybean meal increased by 63,800 tons to 886,200 tons, and the national port inventory of soybean oil increased by 24,000 tons to 932,000 tons. The weekly oil - mill开工率 decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 64.52%, and the weekly oil - mill crushing volume decreased by 36,800 tons to 2,295,400 tons [2]. - Price difference: The soybean - palm oil price difference decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton, the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 1.05 yuan/ton to 193.16 yuan/ton [2]. - Trading volume: The weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean meal decreased by 5,909 tons to 668,700 tons, and the weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean oil increased by 24,600 tons to 108,300 tons [2]. - Profit: The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, and the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu increased by 11.9 yuan/ton to 78.05 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: China's total domestic soybean consumption increased by 5.1 million tons to 126.8 million tons, and China's food consumption of soybean oil increased by 900 thousand tons to 18,800 thousand tons [2]. - Livestock: The price of live pigs in Beijing decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 14.52 yuan/kg, and the weekly expected profit of pig farming increased by 3.48 yuan/head to 62.02 yuan/head. The monthly production of feed increased by 981,000 tons to 27,621,000 tons, the monthly pig inventory decreased by 1,012,000 heads to 41,731,000 heads, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 40,000 heads to 4,042,000 heads [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal increased by 2.28 percentage points to 16.7%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal increased by 2.26 percentage points to 16.69%. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 12.78%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02 percentage points to 11.74% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons, higher than the market expectation of 200,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [2]. - In the soybean planting area, the temperature in most parts of Northeast China is slightly higher, and the soil moisture is suitable, with overall good growth conditions. The market quotes in the inland areas are stable with a slight downward trend [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall trend of domestic meal products is stronger than the external market, and rapeseed meal maintains a relatively strong operation. The short - term supply of rapeseed oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of oil mills is high, but the output pressure is weakening, and the long - term pressure may decline. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased recently [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9477 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 16433 hands to 225053 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 6123 hands to 8538 hands. The main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 551501 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 5316 hands to 40412 hands. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 691 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5133 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9700 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 4948.85 yuan/ton, down 48.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.6, up 0.01 [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons, a decrease of 15.1 tons. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 15 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.25 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.2 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 58.45 tons, a decrease of 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 35.13 tons, a decrease of 2.91 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 5.6 tons, a decrease of 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 27 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 tons, a decrease of 0.38 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons, a decrease of 87 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4578.2 billion yuan, an increase of 411.2 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.6%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.18%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.14%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.75%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2] Industry News - On July 21st, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to good weather in the Canadian prairies, but commercial pricing supported the market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 6.20 Canadian dollars at 694.10 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The hot weather in the Canadian plains has decreased this week, and there has been favorable rainfall, which has brought some pressure to the market. The arrival of the peak season for aquaculture has increased the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal has weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure from the supply of soybean meal, but the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 2.41% to 2.03 million tons at the end of June, and high - frequency data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from July 1st - 15th, while exports declined, which restricts the palm oil price. The supply of domestic vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high, which continues to restrict the market price. However, the reduction in the oil mill startup rate has significantly weakened the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade may increase supply, and recently, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2] Key Points to Watch - The startup rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The styrene market shows a situation of weak reality versus strong expectations. The EB2509 daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 7560 yuan/ton. The domestic styrene is still in a high - production state. With the impact of restarting devices expanding this week, production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The profits of downstream "three S" products have been repaired due to the decline in styrene prices, but the high inventory of "three S" finished products is difficult to reduce. The total styrene inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the difficulty of inventory reduction increases. In terms of cost, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, providing limited support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures is 7481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 401499 lots, an increase of 64988 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders are 356805 lots, a decrease of 17918 lots. The net long positions are - 21917 lots, an increase of 479 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders are 378722 lots, a decrease of 18397 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 0 lots, a decrease of 7245 lots. The closing price of the October contract is 7426 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7856 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea middle price is 911.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 dollars/ton. The CFR China middle price is 921.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7750 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), 7670 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), 7525 yuan/ton, and 7560 yuan/ton (up 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The middle prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf are 821 dollars/ton (unchanged), 831 dollars/ton (unchanged), 815 dollars/ton (up 2.5 dollars/ton), and 457 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), US Gulf (FOB), and Rotterdam (FOB) are 737.5 dollars/ton, 284 cents/gallon (down 2 cents/gallon), and 768 dollars/ton respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 5950 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6010 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan/ton), and 5860 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene production rate is 78.3%, a decrease of 0.91%. The national styrene inventory is 208319 tons, a decrease of 1376 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 15.07 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons. The trade inventory in the East China main port is 5.62 tons, an increase of 1.12 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 53.18% (up 2.12%), 65.9% (up 0.9%), 50.6% (down 0.5%), 28% (down 1%), and 73.08% (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, China's styrene factory production was 35.87 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 23.75 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons compared with the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%. As of July 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 20.83 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% [2].