天然橡胶产业日报 2025-10-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15150 | 0 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12350 | -15 -10 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | 0 20号胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 15 | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2800 | 15 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 150367 | -2371 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 63413 | -2767 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -25442 | -3066 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11322 | -113 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 127740 | -1340 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 42640 | 1412 | | | | 现货市场 | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14300 | 0 上海市场越南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For corn: With the progress of US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on US corn prices. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, farmers' willingness to sell has slightly decreased, and the arrival volume of processing enterprises has dropped significantly, with some enterprises raising prices slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the harvest of new corn has been slow due to continuous rainfall, and the market is optimistic about the high - quality grain market, with purchase prices continuing to rise. The corn futures price has rebounded, but it is still recommended to sell on rallies due to the upcoming concentrated listing pressure [2]. - For corn starch: As the supply of raw corn increases, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the festival, the industry's operating rate has increased significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. The industry inventory remains high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch still exist, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although the starch price has risen in tandem with the rebound of corn, the overall starch market is still in a bearish trend, and a bearish strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2144 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): 6 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1): 49 yuan/ton. Futures closing price of CBOT corn: 424 cents/bushel. Futures positions (active contract): 49071 hands for yellow corn, 849415 hands for corn starch. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 75401 hands for corn, - 59726 hands for corn starch. Registered warehouse receipts: 49324 hands for yellow corn, 12504 hands for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract: 317 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT: Total corn positions (weekly): 1543065 contracts, an increase of 13269 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of corn: - 51186 contracts, a decrease of 15017 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2259.41 yuan/ton, down 3.34 yuan; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2510 yuan/ton; flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2180 yuan/ton; import cost - insured and duty - paid price of corn: 1981.56 yuan/ton, down 0.79 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 0 US dollars/ton. Corn starch main contract basis: 130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; corn main contract basis: - 9.34 yuan; Shandong starch - corn spread (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan [2] 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2458.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73 yuan; cassava starch - corn starch spread (weekly): 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; corn starch - 30 - powder spread: - 188 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [2] 3.5 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.44 million hectares, an increase of 0.55 million hectares; forecasted yield: 425.26 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Brazil: 131 million hectares; forecasted yield: 22.6 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Argentina: 53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 7.5 million tons. Forecasted sown area in China: 295 million hectares; forecasted yield: 44.3 million tons. Forecasted yield in Ukraine: 32 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 38.7 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 203.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.2 million tons. Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 93 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 119.9 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons. Monthly import volume of corn: 4 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 14800 tons, a decrease of 1140 tons. Monthly feed production: 2927.2 million tons [2] 3.7 Downstream Situation - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 24.44 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 122.31 million tons, an increase of 3.04 million tons. Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 53.19%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 56.74%, an increase of 4.93 percentage points. Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; in Hebei: 83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jilin: 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] 3.8 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.14%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility: 6.83%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 10.36%, a decrease of 4.69 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options: 10.37%, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points [2] 3.9 Industry News - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is cautious about whether a La Nina phenomenon is currently forming. As of October 16, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 51%, compared with 45% a week ago and 48% in the same period last year. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture did not release the crop progress report, and market trading remained cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation remains weak, and the overall loose capital situation may drive the bond market to fluctuate strongly. However, uncertainties such as Sino-US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees will continue to affect market sentiment. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The strategy suggests a band - trading approach [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.16% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 392, 9672, and 4833 respectively, while TL main contract trading volume increased by 11147 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - Most futures spreads showed an upward trend, such as TL2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.01, T2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.02, TF2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.03, etc. Some spreads decreased, like T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.26 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased to varying degrees [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - Some bonds' clean prices increased, such as 250018.IB increased by 0.0290, 250003.IB increased by 0.0473, etc. Some remained unchanged [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active Treasury bonds with different maturities all increased. For example, the 1 - year yield increased by 7.50bp, the 3 - year yield increased by 1.50bp, etc. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Most short - term interest rates increased. For example, the overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.82bp, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.33bp, etc. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 1595 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 910 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2] 3.9 Industry News - In October, the LPR quotation remained stable. The central government arranged 5000 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to be issued to local areas, and will advance the issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, social consumption growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was held from October 20th to 23rd. The US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released at 20:30 on October 24th [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The shipping index (European Line) futures prices rose collectively on Tuesday, with the main contract EC2512 up 5.1% and the far - month contracts up 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rebounded by 108.58 points from last week, up 10.5% month - on - month, and the spot index turned from decline to increase. Recently, there are a mix of long and short factors. The trade war situation is unclear, the "peace plan" in the Middle East promotes the improvement of the Red Sea shipping resumption expectation, and the oversupply pattern is stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. The freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more sharply. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closing price: 1769.300, up 85.9; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1568, up 43.8. EC2512 - EC2602 spread: 201.30, up 41.30; EC2512 - EC2604 spread: 605.50, up 78.60. EC contract basis: - 628.92, down 87.30. EC main contract open interest: 28434, up 2333 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1140.38, up 108.58; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 863.46, down 14.34. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1310.32, up 149.90; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.25. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 973.11, down 41.67; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1267.91, down 19.24. Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2069.00, up 2.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1827.00, up 2.00. Average charter price (Panamax): 16692.00, up 1078.00; average charter price (Capesize): 28559.00, down 286.00 [1] Industry News - The US and China are about to return to the negotiation table. Trump listed rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans as the three issues to be raised to China. China's stance on Sino - US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals. The US and Australian governments plan to jointly invest more than $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next 6 months, with an estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion [1] Key Factors Affecting the Market - The strike crisis at Rotterdam Port has escalated, with the original 48 - hour strike extended indefinitely, causing a full - scale halt to port container handling operations. More than 60 ships are waiting at sea, increasing regional supply chain uncertainty. CMA CGM announced a price increase letter for November, boosting the futures price. Trump continued to send out easing signals, alleviating trade war tensions and driving a slight rebound in freight rates. Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of the US - proposed "peace plan" for the Gaza Strip, improving the Red Sea shipping resumption expectation and weakening the support for futures prices. The eurozone's recent economic data has fluctuated, with business sentiment indices weaker than expected. The ECB stated that it will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. China's improved export data in September supports the shipping industry [1] Key Data to Watch - UK September CPI monthly rate at 14:00 on October 22; UK September retail price index monthly rate at 14:00 on October 22 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased slightly as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from restored capacity. Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. Low freight rates have weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, leading to an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week. [3] - Due to various factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports has fallen short of expectations, resulting in a decrease in methanol port inventories last week. The inventory in East China has decreased as提货 performance is good, while the inventory in South China has increased due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading. The expected methanol imports in October remain sufficient, and port inventories may still rise. [3] - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable and remained at a high level. There are no planned adjustments in the short - term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2268 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton. [3] - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 1059019 lots, a decrease of 12237 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 138689 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 14092, a decrease of 810. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 99.7 tons (weekly), a decrease of 8.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 49.44 tons (weekly), an increase of 3.17 tons. [3] - The import profit of methanol is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 359900 tons (weekly), an increase of 20500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17%. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 40.88% (weekly), an increase of 6.77%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%. [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 72.52% (weekly), a decrease of 10.44%; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.12% (weekly), a decrease of 1%. [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 92.39% (weekly), a decrease of 0.8%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.84% (daily), a decrease of 0.3%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3% (daily), a decrease of 0.05%. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.04%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.89 tons, an increase of 11.37 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 98.64%. [3] - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 149.14 tons, a decrease of 5.18 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.35 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.17 tons. [3] - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. [3]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/10/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 769.50 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 562,733 | +7149↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 20 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25622 | +438↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,000.00 | -200.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.45 | -0.05↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 846 | -2↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 845 | -2↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 770 | 0.00 I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Newly harvested cotton in Xinjiang has faster picking and selling progress than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather in the production area will slow down the picking progress. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost still has overall support. The spinning mills' operating rate remains low, and the peak season continues to be weak. It is expected that the enthusiasm for restocking by spinning mills will be low in the later period. Overall, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton in the new season bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that cotton prices will fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 107,544 lots, down 10,544 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 262 lots, down 60 lots. The main - contract position of cotton is 593,229 lots, up 231 lots; the main - contract position of cotton yarn is 23,282 lots, up 1,127 lots. The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 2,579, down 19; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,052 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 14,007 yuan/ton. The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,466 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,742 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged. The daily profit of imported cotton is 672 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 10 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 8.28%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 8.33%, up 0.11%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.29%, up 0.99%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.93%, up 0.29% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 177,200 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average export volume of 13,600 tons, a 7% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 12,770 tons in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 280,900 tons. The ICE cotton futures fell slightly on Monday. The December cotton futures contract on ICE closed down 0.12 cents, or 0.19%, at 64.16 cents per pound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - A-share major indexes closed collectively higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 3900 points again. The overall A-share market shows a positive trend, and short-term disturbances in news will provide entry opportunities. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all rose. For example, the IF main contract (2512) rose to 4577.6, up 73.4; the IC main contract (2512) rose to 7052.8, up 144.0 [2] - **Futures Contract Spreads**: Most spreads increased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread rising to 1584.4, up 36.6; while the IM - IC monthly contract spread decreased to 152.2, down 13.4 [2] - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of different contracts showed different trends, like the IF seasonal - monthly spread being -38.4, down 0.6; the IH seasonal - monthly spread being 1.4, up 1.4 [2] - **Futures Position Data**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF decreased by 1944.0 to -28,736.00; while those of IH, IC, and IM increased [2] Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. For instance, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose to 4607.87, up 69.7 [2] - **Futures Contract Basis**: The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis rose to -30.3, up 1.2 [2] Market Sentiment Data - **Market Transaction Data**: A-share trading volume reached 18,926.93 billion yuan, up 1413.98 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 24,299.98 billion yuan, up 6.13 billion yuan [2] - **Other Sentiment Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 85.11%, up 10.31%; the 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index was 17.72%, up 0.79% [2] Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A-share market strength score was 8.00, up 0.80; the technical aspect score was 8.50, up 1.10; the capital aspect score was 7.60, up 0.60 [2] Industry News - **Domestic Economic Data**: In the first three quarters, GDP was 1015036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. From January to September, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year [2] - **International News**: US President Trump mentioned three issues to China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that China's stance on Sino - US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear, and both sides should resolve issues through negotiation [2] Key Data to Focus On - On October 24, at 15:15 - 16:30, pay attention to the SPGI manufacturing PMI of France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK in October; at 20:30, focus on the US CPI and core CPI in September; at 21:45, focus on the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in October [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current jujube market is at a critical juncture between the old and new seasons, with prices in the sales areas showing small fluctuations. The jujubes in the main production areas have not been harvested on a large scale yet, and it is expected to start after the frost. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition progress and price changes. The inventory of sample points continues to decline. Some merchants are actively selling inventory to prepare for the new - season acquisition. As the weather turns cooler, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected that the jujube market will fluctuate within a certain range in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the jujube futures main contract is 11,380 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5; the main - contract position is 187,830 lots, an increase of 7,788. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,544 lots, a decrease of 3,821; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change. The total number of valid warehouse - receipt forecasts is 0 [2] Spot Market - The unified - grade jujube price in Kashi is 6 yuan/kg, with no change; the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.75 yuan/jin, with no change. The unified - grade jujube price in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, with no change; the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin, with no change. The unified - grade jujube price in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, with no change; the special - grade jujube price in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg, with no change. The special - grade jujube price in Hebei is 10.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05; the special - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 11.6 yuan/kg, with no change. The first - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg, with no change [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,009 tons, a decrease of 158 tons; the monthly jujube export volume is 2,283,671 kg, a decrease of 81,222 kg. The cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 23,548,402 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's jujubes is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative quarterly year - on - year production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2] Industry News - In the Cui'erzhuang market in Hebei, 5 trucks of jujubes arrived at the parking area, and the prices remained stable. Some raw materials from Hetian Qiemo area have arrived in the Hebei market, with the reference price of special - grade raw jujubes at 10.40 yuan/kg and first - grade at 9.40 yuan/kg. In the Ruyifang market in Guangdong, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, and the prices remained stable [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2) Core Views of the Report - **Overall View** - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the overall trend remaining bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, but its demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it has recently adjusted at high levels, suggesting short - term observation [2] - **Rapeseed Meal View** - Internationally, the harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the bumper harvest has put pressure on prices. The US soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest restricts prices. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. - Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is still restricted, resulting in less supply - side pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing as the temperature drops and the aquaculture demand weakens. Additionally, the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand for rapeseed meal [2] - **Rapeseed Oil View** - Internationally, the Indonesian government plans to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year, and the US biodiesel blending volume increased in September, which is beneficial to the international oil market. - Domestically, the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed has been announced. The supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in the de - stocking mode. However, the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit the demand for rapeseed oil [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 54 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 12 yuan/ton, the main contract position decreased by 9161 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 3453 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 50 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 27 yuan/ton, the main contract position increased by 13879 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 12187 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7540 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the closing price of ICE rapeseed increased by 51 Canadian dollars/ton [2] Spot Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Nantong decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference with soybean meal remained unchanged [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, the average price decreased by 20.36 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 9 yuan/ton, the spot price difference with soybean oil remained unchanged, and the spot price difference with palm oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu increased by 0.02 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The annual predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1.38 thousand tons, and the global predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1068 thousand tons. The import volume of rapeseed decreased by 26 thousand tons, the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil decreased by 8.72 thousand tons, and the import volume of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.8 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - **Rapeseed Meal**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 13.13 yuan/ton, the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed remained at 0%, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 1 thousand tons, and the South China inventory increased by 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume increased by 1.41 thousand tons [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.53 thousand tons, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.37 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 0.7 thousand tons, and the Guangxi inventory decreased by 0.4 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume decreased by 0.12 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail reached 99.9 billion yuan. The monthly output of feed was 2927.2 thousand tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 thousand tons [2] Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options increased by 0.13%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 21.35%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.15% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.08%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 13.84%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05% [2] Industry News - The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed down 0.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 630 Canadian dollars/ton. The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans restricts prices. The export pressure of US soybeans remains, but the large increase in the crushing volume supports prices [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the rapeseed opening rate, the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, especially the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2]