本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 白糖产业日报 2025-10-21 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5438 | 10 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 421702 | -4713 1001 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 8376 | -31 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -74784 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 0 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | -66 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 现货市场 | | 4254 539 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term strategy of buying long positions on dips, indicating a positive view on the apple market [2] Report's Core View - New - season late - maturing Fuji high - quality supply proportion has declined significantly, and it is expected that the price difference between high - quality and ordinary fruits will gradually emerge, which is beneficial to the apple market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,850 yuan/ton, down 294 yuan; the main contract holding volume is 5,680 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 131,357 hands, down 11,529 hands [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) is 4 yuan/jin, down 0.2 yuan; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 3.5 yuan/jin, down 0.2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China is 5,128.51 million tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.62 yuan/kg, up 0.16834 yuan; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly apple cold - storage inventory in Shaanxi is 0, and the weekly apple cold - storage inventory in Shandong is 0.01, down 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is not provided with changes; the monthly apple export value is 6,973.9 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, down 0.3 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 7.6 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan; the weekly fruit wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan; the weekly fruit wholesale price of watermelons is 4.44 yuan/kg; the weekly early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 15.6 vehicles, down 10.07 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 24.8 vehicles, down 20.53 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.67%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.68%, up 0.52% [2] Industry News - In Gansu, the procurement of merchants is in progress, with limited high - quality goods and firm prices. In Shaanxi, trading is limited, high - quality goods are hard to find, and the price of ordinary goods is chaotic with a slightly weakening trend. In Shandong, the acquisition of late Fuji has started, with low redness and average opening prices. In Liaoning, trading is active, with high - quality goods having a high price and ordinary goods being priced according to quality. In the west, the supply of new - season late - maturing Fuji has increased, with a significant price gap between high - quality and ordinary goods [2] 观点总结 - The high - quality supply of new - season late - maturing Fuji has decreased. In the Shandong region, affected by the weather, merchants have shifted to the west for procurement. In the sales market, the trading atmosphere is average, and the restocking of second - and third - level wholesalers is weak. It is expected that the proportion of high - quality fruits will decline, and the price difference between high - quality and ordinary fruits will gradually emerge [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high inventory of urea enterprises exerts significant pressure on the urea market. The short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract is a price fluctuation between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. As the urea price drops below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers' enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, and they are advised to buy on dips. However, due to the weak market trading atmosphere and slow urea shipment, the probability of a further decrease in production is high, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1609 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 312,167 lots, down 10,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 40,924 lots, up 2,398 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,057 lots, down 181 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, down 5.02 percentage points; the daily output is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 137 tons, up 57 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 24.18%, down 1.32 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 55.18%, down 10.29 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 65.15 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 tons, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week, a 11.88% increase. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week, a 7.47% increase. The production of Chinese urea enterprises was 132.05 tons, down 6.97 tons, a 5.01% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25 percentage points [2].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2946 | 176 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -26221 | -6458 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -170 | 11 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 248893 | 87834 | | | 注册仓单 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15150 | 340 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12365 | 185 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | 10 20号胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 25 | -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2785 | 155 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 152738 | 4378 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 66180 | 3153 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -22376 | 5484 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11209 | -610 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 129080 | -2720 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 41228 | 0 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | | | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 泰标STR20(日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, both raw material and synthetic rubber prices declined. In the spot market, transactions were generally at low prices. With the downward trend of spot prices, the inventory of trading enterprises decreased. After the price dropped to a relatively low level, as the liquidity of the spot market improved, the active participation of downstream buyers is expected to drive down the spot inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, most enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday resumed production as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased significantly. However, the overall market showed no obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises were still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will be stable in the short - term. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2512 contract is expected to be between 10,800 - 11,300 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 200 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 72,808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,020 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber was 5 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,050 tons, a decrease of 20 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was 61.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.28; WTI crude oil was 57.52 US dollars/barrel, unchanged [2]. - Naphtha CFR Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 1,000 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 [2]. - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.53 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.79%, a decrease of 1.58 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 3,050 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.28%, a decrease of 0.15 [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 74.82%, an increase of 8.41 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 184 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 0.05 [2]. - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,300 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders was 4,860 tons, a decrease of 840 [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.72%, an increase of 13.65; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.52%, an increase of 17.46 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million [2]. - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.08; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.17 days, a decrease of 0.53 [2]. 5. Industry News - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. 6. Output Forecast - Most previously maintained cis - butadiene rubber units have restarted, and domestic output has increased. Although there are expectations of maintenance for some units such as Qilu, Yangzi, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, some units have restarted. Maoming Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical have increased production, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is under pressure due to theoretical near - month出栏 pressure from newborn piglets and the inventory of breeding sows, along with large - scale farms' active sales to meet their targets. The second - fattening activity has supported the spot market price, especially in the north, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The terminal demand is expected to improve with the drop in temperature, but currently, the sales of pork carcasses are slow and demand is below expectations. The live pig futures main contract 2601 has rebounded, but the rebound space is limited due to the uncertain second - fattening and continuous supply pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 103,162 lots, up 607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 111 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,936 lots, down 1,420 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 11,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is - 535 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads. The CPI's year - on - year change is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,259.41 yuan/ton, down 3.34 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 880.17, up 1.25. The monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 375.29 yuan/head, down 74.25 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 244.7 yuan/head, down 92.55 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - On October 21, 2025, the daily national live pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 326,524 heads, up 4.43% from the previous day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster than supply and inventory depletion in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 150,100 hands, up 5 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 310,199 hands, up 171,765 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 29,892 hands/ton, down 813 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 880 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,520 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,723 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 85,000 yuan/ton, up 35,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, up 15,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 135,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 59%, up 2%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.09%, up 0.55%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 1.758 million vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 18.69%, down 1.17%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 32.46%, down 0.85% [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 103,607 contracts, up 9,728 contracts; the total put position is 38,261 contracts, up 2,829 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 36.93%, down 0.8132%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.31%, down 0.0002% [2]. Industry News - In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. As of the end of September, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. In September, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The current external environment is more complex and severe, and the task of stabilizing growth in the industry remains arduous [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still have an impact, keeping ore prices firm. Due to many smelter overhauls and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially reducing the operating rate, leading to a gradual contraction of refined copper supply in China. High copper prices suppress downstream demand as buyers adopt a cautious and wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a dull trading sentiment in the spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0641, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly converged. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 85,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,655 dollars/ton, down 36.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 50 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 231,226 lots, up 4,316 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 13,387 lots, down 2,544 lots. The LME copper inventory is 137,175 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 7,825 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 37,678 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,730 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,825 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 330 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 23.35 dollars/ton, down 6.52 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons; the TC fee of domestic copper smelters is - 40.97 dollars/kiloton, down 0.61 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,190 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,890 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.1 million tons, up 3.1 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 58,790 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.6 billion yuan, up 739.681 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,370 million pieces, up 119,712.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.75%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.95%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 19.45%, up 0.0025%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0641 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. In the first three quarters, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors. China's LPR in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month. New policy - based financial instruments are being rapidly deployed. As of October 17, the China Development Bank has invested 189.35 billion yuan, expected to drive a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan; the Export - Import Bank of China has invested funds with 83% going to major economic provinces; the Agricultural Development Bank of China has completed 100.111 billion yuan of the 150 - billion - yuan fund investment, expected to drive a total project investment of over 1.26 trillion yuan [2].

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/10/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,965.00 -35.00 | +55.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,810.00 -33.00 | +4.00↑ -8.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 234,936.00 | +3263.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 351,214.00 | -3945. ...