瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场基本面与宏观情绪共振，胶价震荡上行。进口胶市场报盘上涨，工 厂观望为主，采购情绪不及上周。国产天然橡胶现货价格重心上行，期货盘面震荡走高提振市场 交易情绪，下游询盘氛围略有改善，谨慎刚需采购，实单成交一般。 行情展望：当前国内天然橡胶主产区处于停割期，泰北及越南中北部向减产停割过渡，总供应呈 现缩量。近期青岛港口总库存呈现小幅去库，保税库呈现去库，一般贸易库累库幅度明显缩窄。 海外供应进入季节性缩量阶段，船货到港较前期减少，青岛仓库入库量开始下滑，上旬胶价持续 下跌，刺激下游补货积极性，带动整体出库量提升，一般贸易累库幅度环比缩窄。需求方面，本 周国内轮胎企业产能利用率涨跌互现，部分半钢胎样本企业受外贸订单支撑，装置排产稍有提升， 对半钢胎样本企业产能利用率形成支撑；全钢胎出货表现平淡，部分 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has continued to improve, but the momentum for further decline in interest rates is insufficient. The planned issuance of local government bonds may indicate that the supply pressure in February is advancing, and the market's concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand have not been fully alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month has reduced the market's expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. Additionally, although the equity market has cooled down under regulatory policy adjustments, market expectations remain optimistic, which may continue to suppress the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information to make a directional choice [105]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts fell by 0.34% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11% and 0.01% respectively. The trading volumes of the TF and T main contracts increased, while those of the TS and TL main contracts decreased. The open interests of the TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while that of the T main contract increased [13][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In Q4 2025, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a full - year reduction of 963.6 billion yuan. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%, with a full - year reduction of 357.5 billion yuan. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a full - year reduction of 676.8 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and in December, the profit increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The National Tax Work Conference proposed to strengthen the standardization of tax incentives. The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill, and the US federal government faced a partial shutdown crisis [35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields widened, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, while that of the 30 - year contract widened. The inter - period spread of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [43][49][53]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures' main contract increased significantly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week and 1 - week Shibor rates rose, while the overnight and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.59%. The yields of Treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 1.7 - year yield falling by 0.3 - 1.8bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing to 1.81% and 2.26% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened [70][77]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.7615 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.181 trillion yuan maturing, and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, achieving a net injection of 530.5 billion yuan [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.026865 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 776.835 billion yuan, and a net financing of 250.029 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9678, with a cumulative appreciation of 251 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose, and the VIX index declined. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][96][101]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In Q4 2025, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth rate reached 5.0%. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. In December, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the full - year profit increased, reversing the three - year downward trend. China's economic growth showed a pattern of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand" and "strong supply and weak demand" [104]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the vote, and the federal government faced a shutdown crisis. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, indicating that inflation was still high, employment growth was sluggish, but concerns about the downward risk of the labor force were alleviated [104].

业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给暂稳采买备货，锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线高开低走，涨跌幅为-18.36%，振幅22.72%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价148200元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，从激发重点领域发展活力、培育 潜力领域发展动能、加强支持保障三方面提出12条政策举措。方案划出了交通、家政、网络视听、旅居、汽车后市场、 入境消费这些重点服务消费领域。基本面原料端，锂价波动放大高位震荡，锂矿商挺价情绪较强，矿价偏强运行，冶 炼厂原料相对充足，观望情绪为主。供给端，冶炼厂厂内原料库存充足加之盘面高价时有部分进行套保操作，生产总 体维持稳定，出货情绪随锂价盘面有所波动，国内碳酸锂供给量暂稳，随着假期临近或有一定收敛。需求端，由于锂 价大幅波动，回落时下游询价和逢低备货意愿加强，而高价时相 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 沪铜市场周报 供给略减需求谨慎，多空分歧铜价震荡 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为+2.1%，振幅13.31%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价103170元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储1月议息会议按下暂停键，维持利率在3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支持降息25个基点；鲍 威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话，并表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政 策，建议继任者远离政治。国内方面，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，从激发重点领域发展 活力、培育潜力领域发展动能、加强支持保障三方面提出12条政策举措。方案划出了交通、家政、网络视听、旅居、汽车 后市场、入境消费这些重点服务消费领域。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续下行，铜矿供给仍偏紧，加之地缘政治 方面的影响，原料成本支撑逻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.70%. The Spring Festival is the traditional peak season for jujube consumption, and entering the twelfth lunar month is the last wave of stocking period before the Spring Festival. Due to the relatively dispersed acquisition structure in the 2025 production season, the industry generally has a cautious expectation for the new season's market after the Spring Festival. Therefore, most holders tend to actively sell goods to reduce inventory pressure. The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased this week, but the current sales speed is slower compared to the same period last year, and the expected pre - holiday sales volume accounts for 40 - 50% of the mainland procurement volume, with limited subsequent growth space. The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in production [10][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory Week - ly Key Points Summary - Future trading prompts include spot prices and the consumer side - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.70% - The Spring Festival is the peak consumption season for jujubes, but the industry is cautious about the post - holiday market. Holders are eager to sell to reduce inventory - As of January 29, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a decrease of 925 tons from last week, a 6.58% month - on - month decrease and a 23.99% year - on - year increase. The current sales speed is slower than last year, and the expected pre - holiday sales volume accounts for 40 - 50% of the mainland procurement volume [10] Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.70% [13] - Futures positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 18,529 lots [15] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,317 [20] - Futures price difference: As of this week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 215 yuan/ton [23] - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 350 yuan/ton [26] - Spot purchase price: As of January 30, 2026, the purchase price of Aksu jujube bulk goods was 5.15 yuan/kg, Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg - First - grade jujube spot price: As of January 30, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin - Special - grade jujube spot price: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.30 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.44 yuan/kg [29][30][35] Industry Chain Situation - Supply side - inventory: As of January 29, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a decrease of 925 tons from last week, a 6.58% month - on - month decrease and a 23.99% year - on - year increase [39] - Supply side - production: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [43] - Demand side - export: In December 2025, China's jujube export volume was 5,071,577 kg, the export value was 79,876,362 yuan, and the export average price was 15,749.81 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 43.36% month - on - month and decreased by 18.20% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume was 34,362,765 kg, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.58% [46] - Demand side - BOCE trading: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao brand had only a small amount of orders [51] Options Market and Futures - Stock Linkage - Options market: The implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week was mentioned, but no specific data was provided - Stock market - Haoxiangni: The price - to - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni was presented, but no specific analysis was provided [52][54]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2605合约价格微跌，周度跌幅约0.17%。 行情展望：据ABARES的预测，2025/26年度澳大利亚棉花产量为94.3万吨，同比减 少23%，种植面积为40.6万公顷，同比减少22%，灌溉田面积减少主要是灌溉水不 足，早地田面积减少的原因是土壤水分偏低且其他作物收益好。不过其他地区的单 产偏高弥补了产量损失，整体产量仍比近十年平均值偏高9%。国内市场：当前公检 棉数量已超720万吨，供应压力逐渐增加。进口棉仍以巴西棉为主，交易量有所放缓， 主要由于春节临近，部分纺企进入放假模式。据Mysteel调研显示，截止至1月29日， 进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加4.25%，总库存49.54万吨，其中，山东地区青岛、 济南港口及周边仓41.3万吨，同比减少2.93%，江苏地区张家港港口及周边仓库进口 棉库存约3. ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 苹果市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 行情展望：春节备货陆续进入增量阶段，产区来看，走货速度明显加快，甘肃产 区好于其他产区，客商仍以积极发自存货为主。据Mysteel统计，截至2026年1月 28日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为654.05万吨，环比上周减少28.73万吨，去库 速度环比加快，略高于去年同期。山东产区库容比为49.01%，较上周减少1.29%， 陕西产区库容比为50.85%，较上周减少1.91%，山东产区整体包装发货增加，部 分前期打包的礼盒陆续发往市场，出货有所加快，果农货成交仍一般。陕西去库 环比略有加快，渭南、咸阳产区成交较前有所转好，客商打包发运较多，果农货 仍以两极货源走货为主。销区市场来看，市场中转库及地面车辆积压较多，礼盒 类货源销售速度一般。价格来看，果农一般质量货源稳中偏弱运行，优质货源价 格稳定。预计备货结束前，苹果价格仍维持震荡偏强运行。 未来交易提示： 1、水果价格2、消费 2 目录 1、周度要点小结 2 ...

业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2605合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约1.31%。 行情展望：北半球糖产量处于兑现阶段，短期缺乏趋势性行情，原糖价格预计延续 震荡。国内春节备货接近尾声，备货需求不及往年同期，现货价格支撑逐渐减弱。 基本面的利空延续至今，也在价格上得到充分体现。当前市场处于筑底阶段，市场 虽无明显利多因素，但利空因素逐步兑现，缺乏新的利空因素出现，价格继续下跌 受阻，短期预计震荡运行。后市关注产销数据的公布。 未来关注因素： 1、国内进口 2、需求 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周美糖市场 图2、CFTC美糖非商业净持仓情况 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 本周美糖3月合约期价下跌，周度跌幅约0.14%。 据美国商品期货交易委员会数据显示，截至2026年1月20日，非商业原糖期货净空持仓为178348手，较前一周增加12637手，多 头持仓 ...

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 宏观市场周报 业务咨询 目录 添加客服 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +0.08% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.07%/本周变动-0.14BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.07% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.10% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，上证指数、创 | 本周点评：本周国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TL主力合约分 | | | 业板指跌幅较小不足1%。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝筹 | 别下跌 0.02% 、0.34% ， TF 、 T 主 力 合 约分 别 上 涨 | | | 股强于中小盘股。本周，国内经济数据较少，仅周二公 | 0.01%、0.11%。近期地方债发行计划或显示2月供给 | | | 布规上工业企业利润，在缺乏数据指引背景下，市场对 | 压力有所前置，市场对供需失衡担忧尚未完全缓解。本 | | | 成长板块 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 7.81%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 11%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1859.31, down 94.88 points from last week, a 4.9% month - on - month decline [6][37]. - The full - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. Geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather in Northwest Europe have also short - term boosted freight rates [6][37]. - In December, China's foreign trade rebounded beyond expectations. Exports are the core driving force of China's economy, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][37]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk's price reduction pressure has slightly improved, but other shipping companies continue the pre - festival trend of reducing prices to attract cargo [6][37]. - The decline in eurozone inflation provides conditions for policy wait - and - see, but leading indicators such as PMI are still near historical lows, indicating a fragile recovery foundation [6][37]. - Overall, the slight price increase by multiple shipping companies at the current price end boosts futures prices, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose significantly this week. The EC2604 contract's trading volume and open interest both decreased [13][15]. - The table shows the week - on - week changes and closing prices of different futures contracts and the spot index [10]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week suspension of air strikes on Ukraine, and plans to announce the nomination of the next Fed chair next week. The US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace [18]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement, with significant tariff cuts on both sides [18]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Unemployment has shown signs of stabilizing, and inflation remains relatively high [18]. - China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership and tariff cuts on whisky [18]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week [24]. - The export container freight rate index fluctuated slightly this week [27]. - Global container capacity continued to grow, and European Line capacity rebounded slightly. BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [30]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [33]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, including the price trends of futures and spot, the impact of policies, and suggestions for investors [37][38]