Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster than supply and inventory depletion in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 150,100 hands, up 5 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 310,199 hands, up 171,765 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 29,892 hands/ton, down 813 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 880 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,520 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,723 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 85,000 yuan/ton, up 35,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, up 15,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 135,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 59%, up 2%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.09%, up 0.55%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 1.758 million vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 18.69%, down 1.17%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 32.46%, down 0.85% [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 103,607 contracts, up 9,728 contracts; the total put position is 38,261 contracts, up 2,829 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 36.93%, down 0.8132%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.31%, down 0.0002% [2]. Industry News - In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. As of the end of September, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. In September, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The current external environment is more complex and severe, and the task of stabilizing growth in the industry remains arduous [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still have an impact, keeping ore prices firm. Due to many smelter overhauls and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially reducing the operating rate, leading to a gradual contraction of refined copper supply in China. High copper prices suppress downstream demand as buyers adopt a cautious and wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a dull trading sentiment in the spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0641, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly converged. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 85,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,655 dollars/ton, down 36.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 50 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 231,226 lots, up 4,316 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 13,387 lots, down 2,544 lots. The LME copper inventory is 137,175 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 7,825 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 37,678 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,730 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,825 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 330 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 23.35 dollars/ton, down 6.52 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons; the TC fee of domestic copper smelters is - 40.97 dollars/kiloton, down 0.61 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,190 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,890 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.1 million tons, up 3.1 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 58,790 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.6 billion yuan, up 739.681 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,370 million pieces, up 119,712.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.75%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.95%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 19.45%, up 0.0025%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0641 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. In the first three quarters, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors. China's LPR in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month. New policy - based financial instruments are being rapidly deployed. As of October 17, the China Development Bank has invested 189.35 billion yuan, expected to drive a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan; the Export - Import Bank of China has invested funds with 83% going to major economic provinces; the Agricultural Development Bank of China has completed 100.111 billion yuan of the 150 - billion - yuan fund investment, expected to drive a total project investment of over 1.26 trillion yuan [2].

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/10/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,965.00 -35.00 | +55.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,810.00 -33.00 | +4.00↑ -8.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 234,936.00 | +3263.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 351,214.00 | -3945. ...

Report Date - The report is dated October 21, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia ferromanganese was reported at 5,550 yuan/ton. The decline in raw coal production has narrowed. In September, the output of above-scale industrial raw coal was 4.1 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Fundamentally, the pre - holiday inventory rebounded rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory rebounded for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 93,000 tons on the raw material side, and the molten iron demand remained high and volatile. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 140 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 260 yuan/ton. In the market, the second - round inquiry price of the mainstream steel procurement was 5,800 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry was 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, the factories still have a sentiment of holding up prices, waiting for the final pricing to guide the market. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] - On October 21, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,474 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,220 yuan/ton. Macroeconomically, from January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly remained normal, delivering previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The price of semi - coke was stable, and the short - term cost was supported. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 435 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 380 yuan/ton. In the market, the tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,746 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,474 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest: 576,922 lots, down 6,195 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 399,945 lots, down 10,326 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in SM: - 49,100 lots, down 2,192 lots; Net position of the top 20 in SF: - 25,888 lots, down 2,272 lots [2] - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 34 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 36 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - SM warehouse receipts: 46,638 lots, down 998 lots; SF warehouse receipts: 11,400 lots, down 703 lots [2] Spot Market - Inner Mongolia ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guizhou ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Yunnan ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Ferromanganese index average: 5,640 yuan/ton, down 31.9 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 254 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis: - 196 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.457 million tons, down 21,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Ferromanganese enterprise operating rate: 43.28%, up 0.09%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 35.48%, down 0.46% [2] - Ferromanganese supply: 208,810 tons, up 4,585 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 112,800 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - Ferromanganese manufacturers' inventory: 262,500 tons, up 20,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 69,080 tons, up 3,050 tons [2] - National steel mills' inventory of ferromanganese: 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; National steel mills' inventory of ferrosilicon: 15.52 days, up 0.85 days [2] - Demand for ferromanganese from the five major steel types: 121,113 tons, down 960 tons; Demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types: 19,572.52 tons, down 182.08 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 84.25%, unchanged; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.31%, down 0.22% [2] - Crude steel output: 73.49 million tons, down 3.8786 million tons [2] Industry News - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% [2] - In September, the total import of coking coal was 10.9236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2] - In September, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 cities decreased month - on - month. All 70 cities' second - hand house prices fell, and 63 cities' new house prices decreased month - on - month. The decline of new house prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, but the new house price in Beijing increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline of second - hand house prices narrowed [2] - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the JM2601 contract closed at 1177.0, down 3.49%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The mine operating rate and coal washery operating rate rebounded. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and inventory is expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 21, the J2601 contract closed at 1672.0, down 2.743%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The iron - water output was in high - level oscillation, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1177.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1672.00 yuan/ton, down 38.00. JM期货合约持仓量 was 828825.00 hands, down 22315.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 47556.00 hands, down 1245.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 3800.00 hands, up 346.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 73.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 200.00, unchanged; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 2050.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian 5 raw coal was 1051.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported primary coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur primary coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal from Inner Mongolia Wuhai was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washeries was 26.10 million tons per day, up 0.40; the refined coal inventory was 290.40 million tons per week, up 10.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.36%, up 0.01 [2]. - The monthly raw coal output was 41151.00 million tons, up 2101.30; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 196.10 million tons, up 12.20 [2]. Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 997.37 million tons per week, up 38.31; the total inventory of coke was 57.29 million tons per week, down 6.55. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 million tons per week, up 7.19; the coke inventory was 639.44 million tons per week, down 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.90 days per week, up 0.24; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.19 days per week, down 0.23. The monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4256.00 million tons, down 3.70; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.25%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of crude steel was 7349.00 million tons, down 387.86 [2]. Industry News - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In September, the housing prices in 70 cities declined month - on - month, with all second - hand housing prices falling and 63 new housing prices falling. The decline in new housing prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, except for Beijing [2]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In September, the total import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, 2025, the LPR quotes remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. The Ministry of Finance announced two measures to support economic growth, including allocating 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits and pre - issuing the 2026 local government debt quota. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with September's economic data showing mixed results. The yield of treasury bond spot bonds mostly weakened, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The domestic economy's third - quarter growth was stable but slightly declined compared to the previous value. Overseas, the market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the Sino - US trade policy shows signs of easing. Fiscal policies are expected to drive effective investment and credit, and monetary policies may become more accommodative. The bond market is gradually stabilizing, and it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy while paying attention to policy trends [2]. Summary by Categories Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.14%, 0.11%, 0.04%, and 0.37% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes increased, while TL's decreased. T, TF, and TL main contract positions decreased, and TS's increased [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads between different contracts decreased, while the spreads between different - term contracts such as T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net short positions of T, TF, and TS top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of treasury active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield at 1.3950% (down 0.25bp), 3 - year at 1.5100% (down 0.60bp), 5 - year at 1.5800% (down 0.75bp), 7 - year at 1.6825% (down 0.85bp), and 10 - year at 1.7450% (down 0.80bp) [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight and 7 - day rates decreased, while the 14 - day rate increased. The Shibor overnight rate decreased, the 7 - day rate increased, and the 14 - day rate increased [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 189 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 253.8 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - The 2025 Q3 GDP was 10,150.36 billion yuan, a 5.2% year - on - year increase at constant prices. September's social consumer goods retail was 419.71 billion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. The national fixed - asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting will be held from October 21st to 22nd [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 21 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2138 | | 2380 | 6 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -7 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -112 | 吨) | -30 | -20 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 30648 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 800344 | | 53048 | -10702 | | | -9115 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -47627 | | -52803 | -3788 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 12615 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 49324 | 手) | 12756 | -50 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) -7 | 319 | | | | | | 期 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/10/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 23.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1682.000 | | 1522 | | | +62.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2512-EC2602价差 -22.70↓ EC2512-EC2604价差 | 160.00 | | 526.90 | | | -3.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -541.62 | +81.28↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 442↑ | 2610 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025-10-20 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capacity loss due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry exceeded the output from restored capacities, leading to a slight decline in overall production [2]. - Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. The persistently low freight rates have also weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, resulting in an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week [2]. - Due to the under - performance of foreign vessel unloading under multiple factors, the methanol port inventory decreased last week. The提货 in the East China region was good, with inventory decreasing, while the South China region saw an increase in inventory due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading [2]. - The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and there is still a possibility of an increase in port inventory [2]. - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable, maintaining a high - level operation. There are no planned adjustments in the short term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [2]. - The position volume of the main methanol contract was 1,071,256 lots, an increase of 12,531 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 176,580 lots, a decrease of 27,277 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 14,902, an increase of 3,620 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2052.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 227.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 270 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 61 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 99.70 million tons, a decrease of 835,000 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.44 million tons, an increase of 317,000 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was - 16.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.7598 million tons, an increase of 657,100 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 40.88%, an increase of 6.77 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.92%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 72.52%, a decrease of 10.44 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.12%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 92.39%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1033 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.14%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 18.72%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.72%, unchanged [2] 7. Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 6.04%. The orders to be delivered by sampled enterprises were 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 98.64% [2]. - As of October 15, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 835,000 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 317,000 tons [2]. - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market has been under pressure and in a callback trend due to the cooling of the tariff situation, with the market's risk aversion sentiment declining and risk appetite improving [2]. - The sharp correction in the precious metals market since last Friday may be driven by both fundamental and technical factors. The monthly RSI indicates that gold and silver prices are in an overbought range, and the market's expectation of Trump's tariff implementation has decreased, leading to a decline in the safe - haven premium [2]. - Fed officials maintain a dovish stance, and the probability of interest rate cuts in October and December is over 90%, which may provide some support for gold prices [2]. - Looking ahead, tariff developments will still affect gold price fluctuations. The U.S. government shutdown is expected to continue, and this Friday's CPI data will be crucial. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate this week, with short - term correction pressure remaining. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 930 - 990 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11000 - 12000 yuan/kg [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 970.32 yuan/gram, down 29.48 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11742 yuan/kg, down 507 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 207916 lots, down 14276 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 432663 lots, down 38499 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 117407 lots, down 13605 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 99705 lots, up 4292 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 84606 kg, unchanged; that of silver is 855850 kg, down 64253 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 975.5 yuan/gram, down 21.79 yuan; the silver spot price is 11834 yuan/kg, down 365 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 5.18 yuan/gram, up 7.69 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 92 yuan/kg, up 142 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1047.21 tons, up 12.59 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15497.4 tons, up 74.79 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 24.14%, up 1.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 32.85%. The 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 18.9%, up 1.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 32.85%, up 0.82% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in an interview, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing some tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - On the morning of October 18, Chinese and U.S. economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2]. - Trump signed an executive order on October 17 to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts from November 1, and a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2].