Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the HC2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. In terms of the macro - aspect, in the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to find a balance under the new rules. Regarding supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils has increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.99% and a production volume of 3.0921 billion tons; terminal demand has improved, and inventories continue to be depleted. Overall, the downstream demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively resilient. Coupled with the first round of price increases for coke, the prices of furnace materials have all increased, driving up costs and steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising, and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the position volume is 1,547,118 lots, up 29,468 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 37,312 lots, down 18,077 lots. The HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 193,068 tons, up 8,842 tons. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 151 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it is 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it remains at 3,310 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it remains at 3,170 yuan/ton. The basis of the HC main contract is 2 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 799 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 167.6285 million tons, up 2.1204 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 419,400 tons, up 14,600 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.6199 million tons, up 117,900 tons. The inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.5875 million tons, up 25,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.66%, down 0.16%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.53%, up 0.07%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.99%, up 0.97%. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 772,500 tons, up 6,100 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.7833 million tons, down 28,100 tons. The monthly output of crude steel in China is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons. The net export volume of steel is 1078 million tons, up 130 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales are 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units. The monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%. Fed Chairman Powell said that if tariff inflation peaks and then falls, the policy can be loosened, and no one expects the next meeting to raise interest rates. Only one of the three leading building materials steel mills in Shandong Province has introduced a specific winter storage policy this year [2]

国债期货日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.250 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 83851 | -3528↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.875 | 0.01% TF主力成交量 | 61278 | 5250↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.394 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 27838 | -1924↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.170 | 0.07% TL主力成交量 | 83695 | 24158↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.03↑ T03-TL03价差 | -3.91 | -0.02↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.02 | -0.00↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.35 | -0.01↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.04 | +0.01↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.80 | 0. ...

月中，2603合约收跌0.98%，2605合约收跌0.17%，延续弱势。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11165 | -105 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 118654 | -2569 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 426 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -48297 | 52 ...

研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 红枣产业日报 2026-01-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 8895 | 65 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 125752 | -2555 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -15868 | 1181 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 3313 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） 164,820.00 | | -1460.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -155,753.00 | -5388.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） 402,347.00 | | -8638.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -2,680.00 | -2400.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） 30,211.00 | | +245.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） 168,000.00 | | -4000.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 164,500.00 | -4000.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） 3,180.00 | | -2540.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） 2,045.00 | | +15.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The precious metals market continued to experience an accelerating upward trend, with gold prices hitting new all - time highs. The Fed maintained the interest rate as expected at the FOMC meeting. The market may price in a more hawkish Fed stance. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long - term, and investors should consider buying on dips, while being cautious of short - term corrections. The London gold is expected to face resistance at $5500 per ounce and find support at $5000 per ounce, and London silver at $120 per ounce and $100 per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1249.120 yuan/gram, up 62.9 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 30891 yuan/kilogram, up 1672 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 10653 hands to 211,820 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 4376 hands to 13,190 hands [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 90641 to 521,258 hands, while that of Shanghai silver decreased by 325925 to 759,570 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold remained unchanged at 103029 kilograms, and that of Shanghai silver decreased by 26360 kilograms to 482,008 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1243.02 yuan, up 58.06 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 30,094 yuan, up 1105 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.10 yuan/gram, down 4.86 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 797 yuan/gram, down 567 yuan [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1089.96 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 211.42 tons to 15,636.12 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC decreased by 6468 to 244770 contracts, and those of silver decreased by 6846 to 25,214 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold increased by 86.24 tons to 1313.07 tons, and the total annual supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 174.15 tons to 1257.90 tons, and the total annual demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index was 96.35, up 0.59 [2]. - **Yield and Volatility**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, unchanged; the VIX volatility index was 16.35, unchanged; the CBOE gold volatility index was 39.67, up 6.54 [2]. - **Ratios**: The S&P 500/gold price ratio was 1.31, down 0.06; the gold - silver ratio was 47.05, up 1.66 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point cut. The Fed noted that the unemployment rate showed initial signs of stabilization, inflation remained relatively high, and economic uncertainty was still high. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates was not the basic assumption for the next move, and he believed the Fed would maintain its independence [2]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next strike would be more intense and a large fleet was heading to Iran [2]. - **BOJ Policy**: The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes showed that if the outlook met expectations, it was advisable to continue raising interest rates, and the monetary policy environment would remain loose even after a rate hike [2]. - **Rate Cut Probability**: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March was 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 86.5%. By April, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut was 24.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 74%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut was 2.0% [2].

股指期货全景日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2603） | 4784.0 | +47.6↑ IF次主力合约（2602） | 4774.6 | 环比 +43.8↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3130.4 | +59.8↑ IH次主力合约（2602） | 3124.2 | +58.0↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8517.6 | -99.8↓ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8531.2 | -87.0↓ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8329.0 | -44.0↓ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8351.4 | -49.4↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1650.4 | -11.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3756.6 | -138.8↓ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -179.8 | +36.0↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5407.0 | -150.6↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约 ...

苹果产业日报 2026-01-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 110 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) 1020 | 9642 2430 | 116346 | 16344 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 0 | 5.25 | 2.4 | 0 | | 元/斤) | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | 0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 168.34 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) | 5128.51 | | | | 产业情况 | 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.05 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 9.47 | 9.29 | 0.09 | | | 全国苹果冷 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 798.50 | +15.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 555,392 | -9221↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 19.5 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -7506 | -672↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2026/1/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1229.000 | 51.4↑ EC次主力收盘价 1493.2 | +65.90↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2604-EC2606价差 | | -264.20 -15.90↓ EC2604-EC2608价差 -331.80 | +2.70↑ | | EC合约基差 | -35.10↓ | 630.31 | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1499↑ | 40146 | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1859.31 | -94.88↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,294.32 | -10.95↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1457.86 | -116.26↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1208.75 | -1.10↓ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,588.19 | 5.59↑ | ...